Aff Brazilian Soft Power DA - Michigan7 2013

8/20/2019 Aff Brazilian Soft Power DA - Michigan7 2013

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AFF**


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uniqueness


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brazil leadership low


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generic

Brazil soft power is terminally screwedCasanova and Kassum, ! – PhD, Senior Lecturer of Management, Samuel Curtis

Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, AD MA in!nternational "elations, !nde#endent Consultant, !nternational $conomic "elations,%uenos Aires &Lourdes AD Julian, June ', ()*+, -rom Soft to .ard Po/er0 !n Searchof %ra1il2s 3inning %lend,4 !S$AD,///5insead5edu6facultyresearch6research6doc5cfm7did8'(9):;66.ensel


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"" econ

#o Brazil rise$internal issues%otero and Armi&o, ' – Sotero is the director of the %ra1il !nstitute of the

3oodro/ 3ilson !nternational Center for Scholars and Armio is an inde#endentresearch #rofessional at Portland State University and holds a Ph5D5 from UC%er=eley in Political Science &Paulo and Leslie $lliott, %"A!L0 EK %$ K" KE EK %$A %"!C74 AS!A P$"SP$CE!$, ol5 +*, o5 9, ()):, ##5 9+:), Google Scholar;66.AL

Ehe contradictory trends of loss of com#etitiveness com?ined /ith gains on thesocial front have fed an intense and /ideranging national de?ate am#li@ed ?y ano#en and com#etitive media that =ee#s the core economic and #olitical choicesconfronting the country highly visi?le5 Ehere is an am#le and gro/ing societalconsensus on many of the essential structural4 reforms that %ra1il still mustconfront0 the gro/ing cost of the #u?lic sector the #oor Huality of #u?lic educationthe unfairness and lac= of eHuity in the social security system %ra1il2s high ta>ation&around +B #ercent of GDP;, /hich even leftleaning President Lula has descri?ed as

#unishing to investors4 and other issues that limit %ra1il2s #ros#ects at home andcom#etitiveness in the /orld economy5 Ehe diIculty in @nding solutions derives inlarge measure from the nature of democratic life, made dysfunctional at times in%ra1il ?y a #olitical system ?uilt to #rotect the #rivileges of the #o/erful in a stillvery uneHual and unust society5 !n common /ith the other three %"!Cs countriesconsidered in this volume, %ra1il2s future status in the international system thusde#ends crucially on ho/ /ell the country2s leaders manage its domesticchallenges5 !n %ra1il these challenges are over/helmingly ones of economicmanagement5 Knly if they are met /ill %ra1il #lay a glo?al role in the t/enty@rstcentury5

#o Brazilian growth

(inde et al ! Associate Professor at "os=ilde University and mem?er of the!nternational Develo#ment "esearch Grou# in the De#artment of Society andGlo?ali1ation &%irger S=ydsgaard, /ith Pernille van Nleef, Phili## StOnder, SanderS#echt and Simon .orth, Glo?al %ra1il and the Political $conomy of the %ra1ilianModel,4 January (nd, ()*+, htt#066rudar5ruc5d=0))6handle6*))6B:*9.o/ever recently, %ra1il2s #ros#ects ?ecame shallo/ again5 After three years of asluggish /orld economy, gro/th in %ra1il is as /ell close to stagnation5 %ra1ilian#oliticians re#eatedly em#hasi1e %ra1il2s determination to #rotect its economicgains, ?e it against Me>ican or Chinese car manufacturing or against u#/ards#ressures on the %ra1ilian currency ?y US deQationary #rograms5 3hile es#ecially%ra1il2s administration coins #ortentous terms such as a looming currency or trade/ar, academia discusses controversially the challenges of the ne/ %ra1il5 "uchir

Sharma, an analyst and researcher from Morgan Stanley, argues in the Journal on-oreign "elations that %ra1il2s consumer ?oom has ?een driven ?y income fromcommodity sales4 to China &()*(0:;5 Since, he e>#ects Chinese gro/th andresource demand to dro# during the ne>t years, he concludes that %ra1iliande#endence on these e>#orts /ould #ut an end to %ra1il2s ?oom5 .is de?ata?leclaim caused several res#onses, /hich concluded that his analysis ignores thecentral role of #olitical and economic sta?ility for the consumer ?oom5 Moreover, itdoes not account for #rogress made in addressing domestic challenges over thelast decade, these factors are seen as sta?ili1ers for the %ra1ilian economy that

http://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/international-development-research-group(ee6d5676-e763-4d9c-a7e0-3e47a068fe57).htmlhttp://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/institut-for-samfund-og-globalisering(a4fd65b3-2c21-472d-b486-1e25cc9b3f61).htmlhttp://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/institut-for-samfund-og-globalisering(a4fd65b3-2c21-472d-b486-1e25cc9b3f61).htmlhttp://rudar.ruc.dk:8080/handle/1800/9714http://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/institut-for-samfund-og-globalisering(a4fd65b3-2c21-472d-b486-1e25cc9b3f61).htmlhttp://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/institut-for-samfund-og-globalisering(a4fd65b3-2c21-472d-b486-1e25cc9b3f61).htmlhttp://rudar.ruc.dk:8080/handle/1800/9714http://rucforsk.ruc.dk/site/da/organisations/international-development-research-group(ee6d5676-e763-4d9c-a7e0-3e47a068fe57).html


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/ould ma=e it less vulnera?le than Sharma suggests &K2eil R La##er ()*(;5Loo=ing into the de?ate, the o?server /onders ho/ %ra1il arrived at its current#osition and /hat sha#ed the %ra1il of the (*st century7 -urthermore, %ra1il isinfamous for a set of challenges, that ma=es #roduction in %ra1il relativelye>#ensive and is routinely critici1ed ?y 3estern o?servers as results of the#rioriti1ation on /elfare s#ending, /hich #uts %ra1il into an inferior #osition among

emerging mar=ets &Sharma ()*(;5 Particularly, lac= of s=illed la?or,underdevelo#ed infrastructure and high la?or costs are ?lamed to harm %ra1iliancom#etitiveness5 Ehus, this #a#er as=s to /hich e>tend these o?stacles challenge%ra1il2s gro/th #ers#ectives and in ho/ far these challenges are structural#ro?lems of the %ra1ilian state5


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"" social

Alt cause to decline ) orld Cup and +lympics, and corruptionistovic, - – Master2s Student, Pu?lic Di#lomacy, Annen?erg School ofCommunication, University of Southern California, "esearch !ntern, Center on Pu?lic

Di#lomacy, University of Southern California &Ale=sandra, A#ril6May ()*(, %ra1il2sSoft Po/er and Dilma2s Dilemma,4 PDi Monitor olume +, !ssue 9, Center on Pu?licDi#lomacy, University of Southern California,htt#066usc#u?licdi#lomacy5org6inde>5#h#6#dinmonitor6article6?ra1ilssoft#o/erand

dilmasdilemma6;66.enselAs the host of ?oth the ne>t foot?all 3orld Cu# in ()*9 and the Klym#ic Games in()*F, %ra1il has an o##ortunity to sho/ the /orld the vitality of its emergingpower in an area a?out /hich it is #assionate s#orts5 Ehe decisions to a/ard theevents to %ra1il, /hich /ere /on ?y the government of former President Lui1 !nTcioLula da Silva, mar=ed a diplomatic tour de force for the country5 %ut recentnegative media attention highlighting -!-A2s fear that the stadiums /on2t ?eready in time for the games sho/s that convincing the /orld of your #ro/ess is not

enough, one must successfully host the events5 Ehis #ast year2s corruptionscandals among President "ousse2s high ran=ing oIcials, @rst %ra1il2s S#ortsMinister and then the head of the %ra1ilian foot?all confederation this #ast March,are #artly to ?lame for the delay5 Although most of the *( stadiums are onschedule, many are over ?udget and ?eing constructed on ta>#ayer ta?s5 !t remainsto ?e seen if the e>#osed challenges of e>ecution are sym#toms of a larger #ro?lemof underdevelo#ment and /hether %ra1il2s forthcoming s#ort di#lomacy initiatives/ill have a #ositive longterm im#act on the #o#ulation5


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"" oil

Brazil.s /etrobras failure has led to leadership collapse and01%1 reemergence

omero, ! – %ra1il ?ureau chief for Ehe e/ or= Eimes ?raduated /ith honorsfrom .arvard College /ith a degree in .istory and Literature &Simon "omero, March(Fth, ()*+, New York Times Petro?ras, Knce Sym?ol of %ra1il2s Kil .o#es, Strives to"egain Lost S/agger,4 +6(F6*+,htt#066///5nytimes5com6()*+6)+6(:6/orld6americas6#etro?ras?ra1ilsoilgiantstrugglestoregainlosts/agger5html7#age/anted8allRr8);66J$S"!K D$ JA$!"K V %ra1il2s oil #roduction is falling, casting dou?t on /hat /assu##osed to ?e an oil ?onan1a5 !m#orts of gasoline are rising ra#idly, e>#osing thecountry to the /hims of glo?al energy mar=ets5 $ven the nation2s ethanol industry,once envied as a model of rene/a?le energy, has had to im#ort ethanol from theUnited States5 .alf a decade has #assed since %ra1ilians cele?rated the discovery of huge amounts of oil in dee#sea @elds ?y the national oil com#any, Petro?ras,

trium#hantly #ositioning the country to surge into the to# ran=s of glo?al #roducers5%ut no/ another =ind of energy shoc= is unfolding0 the colossal com#any, long=no/n for its might, is losing the race to =ee# u# /ith the nation2s gro/ing energydemands5 Saddled /ith a nationalist mandate to ?uy shi#s, oil #latforms and othereHui#ment from lethargic %ra1ilian com#anies, the oil giant is no/ facing soaringde?t, maor #roects mired in delays and older @elds, once #rodigious, that areyielding less oil5 Ehe undersea ?ounty in its gras# also remains devilishly com#le> toe>#loit5 o/, instead of sym?oli1ing %ra1il2s rise as a glo?al #o/erhouse, Petro?rasem?odies the sluggishness of the nation2s economy itself, /hich, after racing aheadat :5' #ercent in ()*), slo/ed to less than * #ercent last year, ecli#sed ?y gro/thin other Latin American nations li=e Me>ico and Peru5 Until recently, Petro?ras /assecond in value only to $>>onMo?il among #u?licly traded energy com#anies5 %ut

its fortunes have tum?led to the #oint that it is no/ /orth less than Colom?ia2snational oil com#any5 Ehat fall has accentuated an increasingly ?itter de?ate hereover PresidentDilma "ousse2s attem#ts to use Petro?ras to shield the %ra1ilian#o#ulation from the nation2s economic slo/do/n5 Petro?ras /as once thoughtindestructi?le, ?ut that is no longer the case,4 said Adriano Pires, a #rominent%ra1ilian energy consultant5 Petro?ras is no/ a tool of shortterm economic #olicy,used to #rotect domestic industry from com#etition and @ght inQation5 Ehisdisastrous #rocess /ill intensify if it is not reversed54 Ms5 "ousse, li=e her#redecessor and #olitical mentor, Lui1 !nTcio Lula da Silva, has relied heavily onstate com#anies li=e Petro?ras to create o?s and s#ur the economy5 As a result, the#resident and her to# advisers argue, unem#loyment remains near historic lo/s, ana##roach in economic management that contrasts shar#ly /ith $uro#e and the

United States5 !n a recent s#eech, Ms5 "ousse e>#lained that her government2s#riority /as lifting millions of %ra1ilians out of #overty5 Ehose ?etting against us,4she /arned, /ill suer serious @nancial and #olitical losses54 %olstering Ms5"ousse2s a##roval ratings going into a #residential election in ()*9, Petro?ras is?uilding ne/ re@neries, #ursuing oshore oil and ?uying most of its eHui#ment from%ra1ilian com#anies, all of /hich have created tens of thousands of o?s anddelivered some tangi?le #olitical ?ene@ts5 My life is ?etter,4 said Adinael SoaresSilva, +, a /elder at a Petro?ras re@nery under construction in !ta?oraW, a city near"io de Janeiro5 .e said he /as #leased /ith his salary of a?out X)) a month5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Timeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Collegehttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/americas/petrobras-brazils-oil-giant-struggles-to-regain-lost-swagger.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/americas/petrobras-brazils-oil-giant-struggles-to-regain-lost-swagger.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Timeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Collegehttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/americas/petrobras-brazils-oil-giant-struggles-to-regain-lost-swagger.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/americas/petrobras-brazils-oil-giant-struggles-to-regain-lost-swagger.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


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3here ! /as, ! didn2t have enough to have a savings account,4 he said5 o/ ! do54%ut /hile Petro?ras has hel#ed =ee# %ra1il2s unem#loyment lo/, around '59#ercent, a gro/ing chorus of critics #oints to the o?vious #ro?lems at the com#any,including its ?ac=log of #roects and an ina?ility to satisfy the country2s thirst for oil,forcing it to im#ort foreign gasoline and sell it at a loss5 After %ra1il made its dee#sea oil discoveries in ()):, the government #ushed to #ut Petro?ras @rmly in control

of the ne/ areas, a move that critics say could strain the com#any even further5 !t/as a mar=ed de#arture from the *BB)s, /hen authorities ended Petro?ras2smono#oly as #art of a radical restructuring of the economy5 Petro?ras remainedunder state control ?ut /as e>#osed to mar=et forces, emerging as a hy?rid nim?lycom#eting /ith foreign oil com#anies5 Eoday, Petro?ras seems far less nim?le5 !n ()*(,its #roduction fell ( #ercent, the @rst such decline in years5 Ehe international energyindustry is also changing, es#ecially in the United States, as momentum shiftsto/ard e>tracting oil and natural gas from onshore shale formations5 %ra1il isthought to have large shale reserves itself, ?ut the government remains focused onits costly dee#sea mega#roects5 23he 0nited %tates is redrawing the globalpetroleum map, /hile in %ra1il eu#horia has given /ay to inertia,4 -olha de SYoPaulo, one of %ra1il2s most inQuential ne/s#a#ers, said in a recent editorial5

Com#ounding matters, %ra1il2s demand for gasoline surged a?out () #ercent in ()*(, reQecting a carmanufacturing industry that has ?oomed #artly as a result of government eorts to lift #roduction5 Petro?rasstill lac=s enough re@neries a?le to #rocess crude oil, forcing it to ?uy increasingamounts of gasoline from a?road5 And it is still losing money on gasoline im#orts asthe government =ee#s domestic fuel #rices relatively lo/, to =ee# inQation fromaccelerating in a slo/gro/ing economy5 $nergy analysts contend that the government isusing Petro?ras to further its o/n #olitical o?ectives 5 Ms5 "ousse2s administration, for instance,has he/ed to measures aimed at reviving the country2s shi#?uilding industry, ?yreHuiring Petro?ras to ?uy many of its shi#s and oil #latforms from %ra1ilianshi#yards5 %ut these ventures have struggled /ith large cost overruns of their o/n,sometimes delivering vessels late or not at all, cutting into Petro?ras2s ho#es ofmeeting am?itious #roduction targets5 Ehen there are the delays at oil re@neries underconstruction5 Kne such com#le>, in Pernam?uco State, /as conceived in ())' as a /ayfor %ra1il to forge closer #olitical ties /ith oilrich ene1uela5 $ight years later,ene1uela has yet to invest in the #roect, /hich has faced various delays as Petro?ras shoulders the entire cost of?uilding it5


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soft power inev

%oft power is inevitable ) orld Cup and +lympics(eahy, ! – %ra1il ?ureau chief, -inancial Eimes &Joe, -e?ruary ((, ()*+, %ra1il0

the @rst ?ig ZsoftZ #o/er,4 -inancial Eimes, Prouest;66.ensel!t is a %ra1il /hose glo?al standing has rarely ?een higher5 !ts agriculture feeds the#lanet5 t year and the Klym#icst/o years later a feat fe/ countries have ever attem#ted5ed attitude to #lanning they /ill hel# seal the country4s image globally asone of the /orldZs emerging #o/ers5 ot a military #o/er, ?ristling /ith missiles andtrou?led ?y messy ?order dis#utes li=e China or !ndia, ?ut the @rst ?ig [soft[ #o/er,a =ind of Canada /rit large ?ut /ith Carnival thro/n in5


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brazil not pursuing lead


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generic

Brazilian is not pursuing a dominant role in (atin America ) even ifleadership is high, it.s won.t pursue a large role in the globe5alamud, ) research fello/ at the !nstitute of Social Sciences &!CS; of the

University of Lis?on5 PhD in Political Science from the $uro#ean University !nstitute&$U!; in -lorence5 &Andres, A Leader 3ithout -ollo/ers7 Ehe Gro/ing Divergence%et/een the "egional and Glo?al Performance of %ra1ilian -oreign Policy,4 LAE!AM$"!CA PKL!E!CS AD SKC!$E, \ ()** University of Miami, MALAMUD0%"A!L2S -K"$!G PKL!C,htt#066americo5usal5es6i?eroame6sites6default6@les6malamud?rasilleader/ithoutf ollo/ers5#df;66.AL

Eo ?e sure, %ra1il has not ?ecome indierent to the region5 .o/ever, its am?itionsare increasingly defensive rather than oensive5 Ehe main goal is no longer tointegrate South America into a regional ?loc /ith a single voice ?ut to limitdamages that could s#ill over its ?orders or stain its international image as regional#aci@er5 o/, it seems suIcient to sta?ili1e the region and #revent #olitical

insta?ility, economic turmoil, and ?order conQicts5 Ehe name of the game is to =ee#Huiet rather than lead the neigh?orhood, since #reventing trou?le in its ?ac=yardseems to ?e a necessary condition for %ra1il to consolidate its glo?al gains5 Giventhat %ra1il is not a revisionist #o/er that intends to u#set the system ?ut rather areformist one that /ishes to enter it, damage control has ?ecome its central tas=5

Ehis has turned a /ould?e leader into a @reman or, as Carlos uenan once#ara#hrased from economics argon, a leader of last resort5 Ehus, as Ehe $conomist&())?; a#tly remar=ed, it may ?e the rising #o/er in the Americas ?ut %ra1il is@nding that di#lomatic am?ition can #rom#t resentment54 %y trying to mitigate thisresentment, the country may @nd itself closer to the category of a traditional ratherthan an emerging middle #o/er5 !n other /ords, it can as#ire to a leading role onthe glo?al stage as long as it goes it alone5


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u1s1 leadership high


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generic

5aintaining hegemonic in6uence in (atin America is stillpossible ) indicators of decline are e7aggerated

8uddy, ! &Patric=, U5S5 am?assador to ene1uela from ()): until ()*) and iscurrently visiting senior lecturer at Du=e University, and -ran= K5 Mora, incomingdirector of the Latin American and Cari??ean Center, -lorida !nternationalUniversity, and former de#uty assistant secretary of Defense, 3estern .emis#here,Latin America0 !s U5S5 inQuence /aning7 3$SE$" .$M!SP.$"$,4 Ehe Miami.erald, '6*6*+, le>is, Eashma;As President K?ama travels to Me>ico and Costa "ica, it2s li=ely the #undits /illonce again underscore /hat some #erceive to ?e the eroding inQuence of theUnited States in the 3estern .emis#here5 Some /ill #oint to the decline in foreignaid or the a?sence of an overarching #olicy /ith an ins#iring moni=er li=e Alliancefor Progress4 or $nter#rise Area of the Americas4 as evidence that the UnitedStates is failing to em?race the o##ortunities of a region that is more im#ortant to

this country than ever5 Ehe reality is a lot more com#licated5 -ortyt/o #ercent of allU5S5 e>#orts Qo/ to the 3estern .emis#here5 !n many /ays, 01%1 engagement inthe Americas is more pervasive than ever, even if more diused5 Ehat is in #art?ecause the #eo#les of the 3estern .emis#here are not /aiting for governments tochoreogra#h their interactions5 A morenuanced assessment inevita?ly /ill highlightthe com#le>, multidimensional ties ?et/een the United States and the rest of thehemis#here5 !n fact, it may ?e that /e need to change the /ay /e thin= and tal=a?out the countries of Latin America and the Cari??ean5 3e also need to resist thetem#tation to em?race overly reductive yardstic=s for udging our standing in thehemis#here5 As Moises aim notes in his recent ?oo=, Ehe $nd of Po/er, there has?een an im#ortant change in #o/er distri?ution in the /orld a/ay from statesto/ard an e>#anding and increasingly mo?ile set of actors that are dramatically

sha#ing the nature and sco#e of glo?al relationshi#s5 !n Latin America, many of themost su?stantive and dynamic forms of engagement are occurring in a /e? ofcrossnational relationshi#s involving small and large com#anies, #eo#leto#eo#lecontact through student e>changes and social media, travel and migration5 Eradeand investment remain the most enduring and measura?le dimensions of U5S5relations /ith the region5 !t is certainly the case that our economic interests alone/ould ustify more U5S5 attention to the region5 Many o?servers /ho /orry a?outdeclining U5S5 inQuence in this area #oint to the rise of trade /ith China and the#resence of $uro#ean com#anies and investors5 3hile it is true that other countriesare im#ortant to the economies of Latin America and the Cari??ean, it is also stilltrue that the United States is ?y far the largest and most im#ortant economic#artner of the region and trade is gro/ing even /ith those countries /ith /hich /e

do not have free trade agreements5 An area of immense im#ortance to regionaleconomies that /e often overloo= is the e>#onential gro/th in travel, tourism andmigration5 !t is common#lace to note the enormous #resence of foreign students inthe United States ?ut in ()**, according to the !nstitute of !nternational $ducation,after $uro#e, Latin America /as the second most #o#ular destination for U5S5university students5 .undreds of thousands of U5S5 tourists travel every year toLatin America and the Cari??ean hel#ing to su##ort thousands of o?s5 -rom ())F()** U5S5 nongovernment organi1ations, such as churches, thin= tan=s anduniversities increased the num?er of #artnershi#s /ith their regional cohorts ?y a


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factor of four5 "emittances to Latin America and the Cari??ean from the UnitedStates totaled XF9 ?illion in ()*(5 Particularly for the smaller economies of CentralAmerica and the Cari??ean these Qo/s can sometimes constitute more than *)#ercent of gross domestic #roduct5 -inally, one should not underestimate theresiliency of U5S5 soft #o/er in the region5 Ehe #o/er of national re#utation, #o#ularculture, values and institutions continues to contri?ute to U5S5 inQuence in /ays that

are diIcult to measure and im#ossi?le to Huantify5 $>am#le0 Des#ite *9 years ofstrident antiAmerican rhetoric during the ChTve1 government, tens of thousand ofene1uelans a##ly for U5S5 nonimmigrant visas every year, including manythousands of ChTve1 loyalists5

3he 01%1 can maintain hegemonic in6uence ) sq policies ensureit.s sustainability9alencia, &"o?ert, CK.A "esearch -ello/, After %in Laden2s Demise, Are U5S5Latin American "elations At %ay Again7,4 Council on .emis#heric Aairs, '6()6**,htt#066///5coha5org6after?inladensdemiseareuslatinamericanrelationsat?ayagain6, Eashma;evertheless, President K?ama attem#ted to /arm relations /ith Latin America inthe early months of his administration5 Case in #oint0 Si>ty days after ?eing s/ornin, he attended the @fth Summit of the Americas in Erinidad and Eo?ago, stating thatthe meeting oered the o##ortunity of a ne/ ?eginning4 for the Americas, evene>#ressing o##osition to the military cou# in .onduras5 Most recently, K?ama easedtravel restrictions to Cu?a and #lanned a tri# to South America, traveling to %ra1il,Chile, and $l SalvadorVeven in the midst of the Li?yan crisisVleading some to?elieve that he might continue for/ard /ith his regional initiatives5 .o/ever, U5S5commitment to Latin America /ill hardly face the ?urden of #roof in the years tocome5 Ehe K?ama administration must choose /isely in their re#lacement of Arturoalen1uela, /ho recently ste##ed do/n as the U5S5 Assistant Secretary of State for3estern .emis#here Aairs after a some/hat lac=luster tenure in that #osition5 !naddition, U5S5 trade deals /ith #ermanently violent Colom?ia and eternally corru#tPanama /ill ?e voted on ?y Congress and the K?ama administration in August5 Ehis/ill result in a long overdue endorsement that /ill, for many Colom?ians, seal a#ledge to 3ashington2s most strategic ally in South America5 Some of theadministration2s critics argue that, almost cons#iratorially, the U5S5 is far moreinterested in s/ee#ing %ogotT2s human rights derelictions under the rug in order toget ahead /ith its free trade /ishes /ith Colom?ia5 !t seems as though America2seconomic interests trum# its desire to carry out a good faith e>amination ofColom?ia2s chronically s#otty human rights #erformance in order to resolve the

matter honestly5 Also, the most urgent issue for the United States, /hen it comes toMe>ico, Central America, and Colom?ia, is the /ar on drugs5 !n addition to the longrunning Plan Colom?ia funding, the U5S5 has #ledged the dis?ursement of theMerida !nitiative ?udget, allocated for USD *5F ?illion, to Me>ican and CentralAmerican authorities attem#ting to control drug smuggling into the United States 5!n this #ost?in Laden era, President K?ama must not only mend fences /ith theMiddle $ast and ca#itali1e glo?al eorts /ith current and emerging #o/ers, ?utmust also overcome the stigma that correlates Latin America /ith a long?ro=en@>ture s/inging in the United States2 #erennial ?ac=yard54 .e can ?egin to do so


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?y e>tending a ?rand of #ros#erity and security that is more false than true, /hich/ill in turn continue to distress the United States /ith socioeconomic strife alongthe immediate ?orders of the region5


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"" brazil

0% heg unchallenged in (atin America"China and Brazil lac: thematerial power to counter the 0%

Brand et al -, Ale>ander %rand is Lecturer and PostDoc "esearcher at theDe#artment of Political Science at the University of Main15 Susan Mc$/en-ial isLecturer at the De#artment of Political Science at the University of Main15 3olfgangMuno is isiting Professor of Political Science at the University of $rfurt5 Andrea"i?eiro .omann is Lecturer at the 3illy %randt School of Pu?lic Policy, University of $rfurt5 &)96()*(, %"!Cs and U5S5 .egemony0 Eheoretical "eQections on ShiftingPo/er Patterns and $m#irical $vidence from Latin America4,Main1 Pa#ers on!nternational and $uro#ean Politics &MP!$P; Pa#er o5 9,htt#066international5#olitics5unimain15de6@les6()*(6*)6m#ie#)95#df,;China has e>#anded its regional resource ?ase in economic terms and it has usedinstitutional as /ell as soft #o/er instruments to smooth its /ay to/ards enhancedeconomic e>change5 !n terms of hegemony, ho/ever, it seems to lac= most of the

ingredients to act as a


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lin:


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u1s1 lin:


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lin: turn

(in: 3urn ) 0% intrusion allows Brazil to reassert its in6uence in the region%otero, ; ) director of the %ra1il !nstitute of the 3oodro/ 3ilson !nternationalCenter for Scholars, MA in Journalism and Pu?lic Aairs from the American

University, adunct lecturer at $dmund A5 3alsh School of -oreign Service,Georgeto/n University &Paulo, %ra1ilZs "ising Am?ition in a Shifting Glo?al %alanceof Po/er,4 Pers#ectives on the Changing Glo?al Distri?ution of Po/er olume+), !ssue Su##lement s*, #ages :*–*, Decem?er ()*);66.ALAlthough %ra1il has ?egun to assert itself on the glo?al stage in the t/enty@rstcentury, historically the nationZs /orld #ers#ective has ?een heavily conditioned ?ygeogra#hy5 -rom the early years of the re#u?lic, in the late nineteenth century, the=ey foreign #olicy o?ectives /ere the consolidation of the national territory throughthe #eaceful resolution of all ?order dis#utes and the #ursuit of closer ties /ith athen emerging United States5 Kne hundred years later, President Cardoso set %ra1ilin a ne/ direction in regional aairs, in order to assert the countryZs autonomy /hile#ushing for integration /ith its immediate neigh?ours5 3ith the nationZs #osition

strengthened ?y the legitimacy of its democratic regime and successful economicsta?ilisation #olicies, Cardoso sought to de@ne %ra1ilZs s#here of inQuence ?yengaging its South American neigh?ours in a strategy of economic integrationinde#endent of the US5 !n Se#tem?er ())), he convened in %rasWlia the @rsteversummit of South American #residents &K$!, ()));5 Si> months later, s#ea=ing at the

Ehird Summit of the Americas in ue?ec City, Cardoso made clear %ra1ilZssce#ticism of the continent/ide integration #roect the United States /as#romoting ?y /ay of the #ro#osed -ree Erade Area of the Americas &Cardoso, ())*,#5 +;0 ]the -EAA /ill ?e /elcome if its creation is a ste# to/ards access to the mostdynamic mar=ets if it is an eective /ay to shared rules on antidum#ing if itreduces nontari ?arriers if it avoids the #rotectionist distortions of the goodsanitary rules if, /hile #rotecting intellectual #ro#erty, it fosters our #eo#lestechnological ca#acity and, furthermore, if it goes ?eyond the Uruguay "ound andcorrect the asymmetries it enshrined in agricultural trade5 !f it does not do so,^-EAA_ /ould ?e irrelevant or, in the /orse hy#othesis, undesira?le25 Lula stayed thecourse on regional aairs5 !n the @rst year of his government, %ra1il ?loc=ed furthernegotiations of the -EAA5 Ehe ne/ #resident, ho/ever, su?stantially changed%ra1ilZs style of di#lomacy, in favour of a more vocal foreign #olicy, reQective of histalent as a charismatic leader /ho loves the limelight and does /ell on the stum#5!n his @rst tri# a?road as #resident, he said in uito, $cuador, that his countryZsdi#lomacy /ould ]?lossom25 Lula descri?ed %ra1il as the regionZs ]natural leader2 and#roclaimed that the country /as ]ready to assume its greatness2 &ea, ())+, #5 F;5%ra1il sought to e>#and e>isting regional mechanisms, such as Mercosur, ?y#ro#osing the accession of ene1uela, and #romoted the creation of ne/ ones, suchas the Union of South American ations, the South American Defence Council andthe Community of Latin America and Cari??ean States in order to #romote fasterintegration5 !n mid())9, %ra1il assumed the military command of the Usta?ilisation mission in .aiti, a ?old move calculated to enhance %ra1ilZs credentialsas a candidate to a #ermanent seat on the USC, according to Clovis %rigagYo&Ksava, ())F;5 Ehe regional activism of the Lula administration led his governmentto act to defuse the internal crisis in %olivia, after forgiving the countryZs #resident,$vo Morales, for unceremoniously nationalising Petro?ras assets in %olivia5 %ra1il


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e>#anded stas of its em?assies in the region and esta?lished a total of +' ne/ones, mostly in the develo#ing /orld5 Ehe #o/erful %ra1ilian ational %an= forDevelo#ment &%D$S; ?ecame an instrument of the regional #olicy5 %y ())B, the?an= had more than X*'5: ?illion in lines of credit e>tended to countries interestedin contracting %ra1ilian com#aniesZ services &%!C, ())B;5 Sur#risingly, %ra1ilZsactivism in regional aairs did not e>tend to eorts to settle dis#utes ?et/een

neigh?ours – a #oint not lost on critics of LulaZs !ran initiative5 ]Ehe !ranianadventure is incom#rehensi?le, es#ecially since there are various conQicts closer tous /hich /e havenZt tried, or havenZt managed, to mediate2, noted S`rgio Amaral&Ehe $conomist, *: June ()*);5 !n contrast /ith the Cardoso government, /hichhad, /ith the US, Chile and Argentina, successfully mediated the *BB' ?orderdis#ute ?et/een Peru and $cuador, the Lula administration did not get involved in adis#ute ?et/een Argentina and Uruguay, ?oth %ra1ilZs #artners in Mercosur, overthe o#eration of a cellulose #lant on the Uruguayan side of the Uruguay "iver5%rasWlia also sho/ed no interest in hel#ing to lo/er tensions and avoid a #ossi?lemilitary confrontation ?et/een ene1uela and Colom?ia, /hich ?order %ra1il5 LulaZsattem#t to ?ring Caracas and %ogota closer together in August ()*), after ChTve1severed di#lomatic relations /ith Colom?ia, reacting to accusations of har?ouring

-A"C re?el grou#s in ene1uela, had little im#act and did not alter the mismatch?et/een %ra1ilZs assertions of leadershi# at the glo?al level and its modest interestin assumeing the ris=s of leadershi# closer to home, /here it should have a ?etterchance of success5 Ehere are various #ossi?le reasons for the Lula governmentZslac= of a##etite to mediate in regional conQicts5 Such dis#utes generate littleinterest and no #olitical dividends in %ra1il5 An amalgamation of Africandescendants indigenous #eo#les and $uro#ean and Asian immigrants /ho s#ea=Portuguese, %ra1ilians do not see themselves as Latin Americans5 .istorically, theyhave ?een Huite distant from their immediate neigh?ours &%ethell, ())B;5 Moreover,the region is seen more as a source of #otential #ro?lems than as #resentingo##ortunities for %ra1il5 A survey of senior di#lomats, ?usiness e>ecutives, scholarsand o#inionma=ers conducted in ())* and ()) indicated decreased su##ort for#ursuing relations /ith the region &De Sou1a, ());5 Ehis @nding suggests thatSouth America and Latin America are generally #erceived ?y %ra1ilian elites as a#oor #latform for %ra1il to #roect itself as a glo?al #o/er5 onetheless, there are afe/ indications that suggest that the Lula government has come to see the regionas valua?le to the e>ercise of leadershi# in so far as it hel#s to #roect %ra1ilZso##osition to US dominance5 -rom the early days of the re#u?lic, there has ?een anantiAmerican strand among %ra1ilian elites5 Ehis strand is li=ely to ?e manifest inthe foreign #olicy of any government of an ascendant %ra1il, the only countryemerging in the United StatesZs socalled ]?ac= yard25 Ehe US recession and ageneral disa##ointment /ith US President %arac= K?amaZs timid #olicies for thehemis#here – on Cu?a, trade and regional security – strengthened the hand of =ey@gures in LulaZs foreign #olicy =no/n for their lac= of sym#athy to the US, andreinforced a tendency to distance %ra1il from 3ashington5 !n the rever?erations ofthe 3all Street colla#se, in Decem?er ()) %ra1il convened a summit to launch theLatin America and Cari??ean Community of ations – an event #lanned to highlight%ra1ilian leadershi# in regional aairs and underline the USZs loss of inQuence5]Ehere is no Huestion that this is a?out e>clusion, a?out e>cluding the United States2&Peter .a=im, Huoted in the %arrionuevo, ());5 Ehere /as also the illdisguisedconfrontation ?et/een %rasWlia and 3ashington over ho/ to res#ond to the June())B constitutional crisis in .onduras, #reci#itated ?y a cou# against President


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Manuel elaya5 Ehe Lula governmentZs une>#ected and ultimately unsuccessfulintervention in the .onduras crisis sho/ed again that /hile %ra1il has not generallysought to assert its regional leadershi#, it has ?een more than /illing to stand u# tothe United States5

(in: turn ) we control uniqueness ) ousse


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not zero"sum

0% and Brazil competition is not zero"sum%weig, ; – elson and David "oc=efeller Senior -ello/ and Director for Latin

America Studies and the Glo?al %ra1il !nitiative at the Council on -oreign "elations&Julia $5, A e/ Glo?al Player0 %ra1ilZs -ar-lung Agenda,4 -oreign Aairs, ov6Dec()*), htt#066///5#an1ertru##en5org6()*(6#olitica6))*5#df ;66.AL Pro>imity and interests have li=e/ise com#elled the ne/ %ra1il to learn to live /iththis changed #olitical environment5 !t is unli=ely that either %ra1il or the UnitedStates /ill succeed in dominating di#lomacy in Latin America5 Kld multilateralinstitutions such as the Krgani1ation of American States are struggling to recoverfrom the distortions of U5S5 hegemony and the am?ivalence and outright de@ance of some mem?er countries5 3ithout a##earing to desire leadershi# over institutions inthe region, /hich could #ossi?ly induce an anti%ra1il ?ac=lash from lesser #o/ers,%ra1il is #roceeding gingerly to ma>imi1e its interests and minimi1e conQict5 Knsome issues, real conQict /ill continue to e>ist ?et/een the United States and

%ra1il5 %ut on ?alance, %ra1il is neither fundamentally antiAmerican nor #roAmerican5 3hile %ra1il /as challenging the United States from .onduras toColom?ia to !ran, for e>am#le, it /as simultaneously negotiating the @rst defensecoo#eration agreement /ith the United States since *B::, /or=ing /ith the K?amaadministration to resolve a dis#ute over the cotton mar=et, and maintaining ano#en channel of communication on climate change and international economicinstitutions5 Ehe ?ilateral relationshi# is li=ely to hover in this unde@ned s#ace ofneither friend nor adversary5 Ehe K?ama and Lula governments have coined theterm [glo?al #artnershi# dialogue,[ a fu11y /ay of ac=no/ledging some interest in?uilding u# layers of scaolding around a house in the very early stages ofconstruction5 Ehe missed o##ortunity and mi>ed signals of the !ran e#isode reQectstrategic dierences ?et/een the t/o countries5 %ut glo?al issues still #rovide fertile

ground for them to coo#erate, es#ecially on climate change, in the G(), throughmodest oint eorts in alleviating #overty, and in treating infectious diseases in .aitiand Africa5 Ehe ?iggest and most immediate test for #residentelect "ousse /ill ?eto ?alance an am?itious domestic agenda /ith the need to secure %ra1ilZsinternational #osition5 !ndeed, %ra1il is in the cat?ird seat of glo?al #o/ers0 it canaord to moderni1e its defense and security esta?lishment /ithout ?eing forced toma=e /renching gunsversus?utter choices5 Eo su?stantially dee#en theinvestments in its #eo#le on /hich its ne/ social contract is ?ased %ra1il may/ell have to lo/er its nearterm sights regarding glo?al leadershi#5 Ultimately, theoutcome could ?e the same0 a strong, selfcon@dent %ra1il that ma=es a si1a?lecontri?ution to #eace and #ros#erity, not ust in the region ?ut glo?ally5 Perha#s thesingle most im#ortant /ay the United States can inQuence %ra1ilian foreign #olicy is

to ma=e clear, in /ord and deed, that ashington regards Brazil4s rise not as azero"sum game that threatens 01%1 interests ?ut rather as the emergence of anotHuitenatural, al?eit sometimes necessary, glo?al #artner5

Brazil and 01%1 in6uence in (atin America is not zero"sum ) empirics prove=C%, ' &Ehe 3oodro/ 3ilson !nternational Center for Scholars, *6(96):, Ehe-uture of U5S5%ra1ilian "elations4, htt#066///5/ilsoncenter5org6inde>5cfm7to#icid8*9*BRfuseaction8to#ics5eventsummaryReventid8(*+BB;

http://www.panzertruppen.org/2012/politica/001.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1419&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=213989http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1419&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=213989http://www.panzertruppen.org/2012/politica/001.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1419&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=213989http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1419&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=213989


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ot a single action ta=en or decision made ?y the United States in the last threeyears has negatively aected %ra1ilian interests, claimed Am?assador "o?ertoA?denur, ?efore a #ac=ed conference room in /hat /as his last #u?lic a##earanceas %ra1il2s am?assador in 3ashington5 3hen he too= the #osition in ())9, %ra1ilianindignation /ith !raH and over onerous visa #rocedures and #oor treatment ofvisiting nationals had caused a tem#orary strain in the relationshi#5 Kther #otential

o?stacles to strengthening the relationshi# that /ere successfully avoided include#ossi?le trade sanctions against %ra1il over intellectual #iracy, %ra1il2s refusal toe>em#t U5S5 troo#s and oIcials from the urisdiction of the !nternational CriminalCourt, mutual charges of dum#ing, and U5S5 threat to removes its General System of Preferences for %ra1il&/hich /ould have negatively aected a##ro>imately four?illion dollars of %ra1ilian e>#orts to the United States;5 Des#ite these challenges,A?denur argued that the ?ilateral relationshi# has reached an un#recedented levelof mutual understanding and deference to the other country2s #ositions ando#inions, facilitated in no small #art ?y President Lula2s #ragmatism5 Des#ite thee>istence of dierences, %ra1ilU5S5 relations are on a #roductive #latform to foster#ositive develo#ments in the future5 Lula has #ut aside his misgivings a?out someU5S5 #olicies and em?raced the fact that it is in %ra1il2s ?est interests to foster

strong relations /ith the United States, argued A?denur5 Much to the disdain of%ra1il, the United States has mista=enly /ithdra/n from certain internationaldiscussions and scenarios and erroneously engaged in others, such as climatechange and the Middle $ast5 Additionally, Latin America is overloo=ed ?y itsorthern neigh?or5 .o/ever, if and /hen the United States decides to refocus itsenergies u#on the region, A?denur is assured that %ra1il /ould ?e its natural ally insuch an endeavor5 %ra1il has good relations /ith all of its neigh?ors and strategicallyoccu#ies a moderate s#ace ?et/een the region2s divergent interests andtraectories, as illustrated ?y its leading role in the current international eorts tosta?ili1e .aiti and ?y its contri?ution to the resolution of the conQict ?et/een Peruand $cuador in the *BB)sVin ?oth cases in close coo#eration /ith the UnitedStates5 A?denur argued that the United States is not the only actor that must ta=edecisive ste#s to/ards a convergence of interests ?et/een the t/o countries0 %ra1ilmust sto# fearing the United States and instead em?race it as a #artner5

#o (in: ) 8ialogues prevent u1s1 in6uence from being zero"sum ) 3hatmeans the A< sustains energy intiatives that solve warming>oldwyn, ! President, Gold/yn Glo?al Strategies, .ouse Committee of -oreignAairs, &David L5, A#ril **th, ()*+ U.S. House of Representatives DocumentRepository Ehe !m#act of the Eight Kil and Gas %oom on Latin America and theCari??ean0 K##ortunities for Coo#eration,4 .ouse Committee on -oreign AairsSu?committee on the 3estern .emis#here $nergy K##ortunities in Latin Americaand the Cari??ean4htt#066docs5house5gov6meetings6-A6-A):6()*+)9**6*))F((6.."G**+-A):3stateGold/ynD()*+)9**5#df ;66J$S

Ehe US has had a num?er of ?ilateral and multilateral energy #olicy forums in thehemis#here over the years5 Ehese forums are #latforms to understand mar=etdynamics, share ?est #ractices on energy eIciency and conservation, shareunderstanding on /ays to enhance energy #roduction, and e>change vie/s on ho/a nation2s energy #olicies may ?e enhanced or reformed to #romote the nation2so/n #olicy5 Ehese #olicy dialogues are also essential for ?uilding the understanding

http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdf


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and relationshi#s that are essential for trade #romotion and conQict resolution5umerous dialogues and #rograms have ?een enacted since ()), /hen ! /rotethat engagement /ith the 3estern .emis#here needed to ?e rene/ed5 Amongthose are a num?er of #rograms and initiatives aimed at energy relations5 Ehe$nergy and Climate Partnershi# of the Americas &$CPA; /as founded at theinvitation of President K?ama follo/ing the A#ril ())B Summit of the Americas,

hosted in Erinidad and Eo?ago5 $CPA /as intended to focus on issues includingenergy eIciency, rene/a?le energy, cleaner and more eIcient use of fossil fuels,energy #overty, and infrastructure, and Secretary of State Clinton later #ro#osede>#anding the focus to include sustaina?le forests and land use and climate changeada#tation5 $CPA ?rings together governments and #u?lic and #rivate sector#artners to im#lement initiatives and com#lete #roects, and ?oasts numerousinitiatives in Central and South America and the Cari??ean5 Among the $CPA!nitiatives are the Colom?ia %iomass !nitiative, /hich aims to develo# atechnological #lan for the #roduction of energy from agroindustrial ?iomass, and theChile "ene/a?le $nergy Center, /hich is intended to serve as a tool and resourcefor the region as it see=s to increase its use of rene/a?le fuels5 %oth #roects areunderta=en in colla?oration /ith the U5S5 De#artment of $nergy, /hich #rovides

technical assistance and o##ortunities for colla?orative /or=5 umerous dialoguese>ist today ?et/een the U5S5 and %ra1il5 Ehe U5S5%ra1il Strategic $nergy Dialogue&S$D;, a #residentiallevel #artnershi# aiming to dee#en energy coo#eration?et/een the t/o nations, is one of the most signi@cant5 Strengthening energysecurity, the creation of ne/ o?s and industries and reduction of car?on emissionsare =ey goals of the S$D5 Maor to#ics of the dialogue include ?iofuels, rene/a?lesand the sustaina?le develo#ment of oil and gas resources5


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china lin: turn

China regional dominance hurts Brazilian in6uence ) plan stopsbrazil"china regional competition

3ulchin - e>#ert in contem#orary Latin American studies, s#eciali1ing in foreign#olicy and com#arative ur?an develo#ment, Senior -ello/, Me>ico and CentralAmerica Program at .arvard University &Jose#h Eulchin, Setting the Agenda0 Asiaand Latin America in the (*st Century4, #g (*htt#066scholarlyre#ository5miami5edu6cgi6vie/content5cgi7article8*)))Rconte>t8clas#u?lications;66J$S

Ehis ?rings me to the third Huestion, /hich interests me the most5 !f ! /ere to /ritea #a#er on


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me7ico lin:


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not zero"sum

3hesis of the advantage is wrong ) Brazil and 5e7ico willcooperate as regional powers1

Kovac - – researcher on Latin America, PhD5 candidate of internationalrelations -aculty of Political Science and !nternational "elations of Mate %elUniversity, %ans=T %ystrica, Slova=ia5 "esearcher on Me>ico "esearch Center of theAssociation for !nternational Aairs, Prague, C1ech re# &!van Novac, Kcto?er (+,()*(, Cultural Diplomacy M$!CK AD %"A!L – -K"G!G E.$ "$G!KAL PLA$" S"KL$4 htt#066///5culturaldi#lomacy5org6academy6content6#df6#artici#ant#a#ers6()**6a#ril6?iecroanua6ivan=ovac#artici#ant#a#erme>icoand?ra1ilforgingtheregional#layersrole5#df , #5 ***(;66J$S

Ehe future of Latin America /ill not ?e characteri1ed ?y a contest ?et/een Me>icoand %ra1il to gain the role of the leader since the core of ?righter future lies in theircoo#eration 5 Another reason is the e>istence of centers /ith dierent #o/er andam?itions –mainly Me>ico and %ra1il, the third and slightly less im#ortant one ?eing

ene1uela5 one of them has the ca#acity for an overall leadershi# in the LatinAmerican region5 Me>ico has lost the #ros#ect to ?ecome the uncontested leader ofthe region, ?ut has an o#tion to #lay a role of a #artner and to understand theinterests of his o/n community vis vis the US that /ould lead u# to the role offacilitator in their mutual interaction5 Kn the other hand, %ra1il as an uncontestedleader of South America /ill face fe/er o?stacles to achieve its vision of SouthAmerica5 Pro?lem a##ear s /hen ta=ing into account that %ra1il2s activities arealmost e>clusively concentrated in South America /hich can ?e seen as anim#ediment to achieve the desired #osition of the leader of the entire region5 Ehus,?oth Me>ico and %ra1il should o#t for mutual co o#eration and inter action in theirforeign #olicies /hich is the ?asic #rereHuisite to get Latin America on the right /ayonce and for all5

http://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdfhttp://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdfhttp://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdfhttp://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdfhttp://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdfhttp://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/pdf/participant-papers/2011/april/biec-roa-nua/ivan_kovac_participant_paper_-_mexico_and_brazil-forging_the_regional_players_role.pdf


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venezuela lin:


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not zero"sum

9enezuela Brazil in6uence not zero"sum the power dynamic isalready set ) ties have become strong

omero - – E2s /riter covering %ra1il, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay andUruguay, graduated /ith honors from .arvard College /ith a degree in .istory andLiterature5 .e also studied for one year in the history de#artment at the Universityof SYo Paulo in %ra1il &Simon, 3ith %ra1il as Advocate, ene1uela Joins Erade %loc0^-oreign Des=_,4 Ehe e/ or= Eimes, Prouest;66.AL"!K D$ JA$!"K After /rangling over ene1uelaZs status for years, Mercosur, theSouth American trading ?loc, admitted the country as its @fth full mem?er on

Euesday, reQecting the inQuence /ielded ?y %ra1il, the regionZs #o/erhouse5ene1uelaZs inclusion in Mercosur, founded in *BB* ?y Argentina, %ra1il, Paraguayand Uruguay and no/ clearly dominated ?y %ra1il, follo/ed a long di#lomaticstruggle5 3hile ene1uela /as #rovisionally admitted in ())F, its formal entrance/as stalled ?y resistance in some mem?er nations, nota?ly Paraguay, /here the

Senate refused to ratify ene1uelaZs admission5 %ut %ra1il, dra/ing su##ort fromArgentina and Uruguay, overrode those o?ections ?y having Paraguay sus#endedfrom mem?ershi# in Mercosur after the ouster of President -ernando Lugo in June5%ra1il usti@ed the sus#ension ?y citing concerns a?out the im#act of Mr5 LugoZsremoval on ParaguayZs democratic institutions5 Knce Paraguay /as sidelined, theother three nations moved s/iftly to formali1e ene1uelaZs mem?ershi#5 Ehe threenations have ?een /or=ing for some time to forge closer economic ties to oilrichene1uela5 !ts #resident, .ugo Chave1, /ho is cam#aigning for reelection, lea#t atthe o##ortunity to fully oin Mercosur, descri?ing the outmaneuvering of theParaguayan Senate as a [failure of U5S5 foreign #olicy5[ Mr5 Chave1, /ho a##eared/ell rested in %rasilia, his @rst international tri# since receiving treatment for cancerin Cu?a in March, said, [Ehe hand of U5S5 di#lomacy /as ?ehind that authoritarian

Paraguayan enclave5[ .e /as an hour late in arriving at the accession ceremony,and he s=irted #rotocol ?y insisting on /al=ing u# the ram# to the #alace of %ra1ilZs#resident, Dilma "ousse, rather than ta=ing an elevator5 .er aides acHuiesced5 Ehe?ene@ts to %ra1il of ene1uelaZs Mercosur mem?ershi# /ere made clear almostimmediately /hen Mr5 Chave1 signed an agreement to ?uy as many as ()#assenger ets from $m?raer, the %ra1ilian aircraft manufacturer, in a deal#otentially /orth XB)) million5 Mercosur has ?een gra##ling /ith internal dis#utesover #rotectionist measures, largely originating in Argentina, and the rise of anotherregional ?loc, the Paci@c Alliance, /hose four mem?ers Chile, Colom?ia, Me>icoand Peru have enoyed fast economic gro/th5 MercosurZs four original mem?ersalready have a trade sur#lus of X95 ?illion /ith ene1uela, /hich relies heavily onim#orts of food and other goods5 %ra1ilian com#anies have done es#ecially /ell

there since relations /armed ?et/een Mr5 Chave1 and Ms5 "ousseZs #redecessor,Lui1 !nacio Lula da Silva5 -or %ra1il, 9enezuela holds longerterm strategicimportance , in the form of its oil reserves, estimated to ?e among the /orldZslargest5 ene1uela is =no/n for gallo#ing inQation, food shortages and un#redicta?letreatment of foreign investors, ?ut its oil revenues ?uoy one of Latin AmericaZslargest economies5 Still, the /ay %ra1il maneuvered ene1uela into Mercosur ma=essome critics of Mr5 Chave1 a##rehensive5 Ehey say %ra1il is ignoring re#orts of Mr5Chave1Zs concentration of #o/er and the erosion of udicial inde#endence inene1uela /hile it e>#resses concern over Paraguayan democracy5 [Ehis sets a

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_S%C3%A3o_Paulohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_S%C3%A3o_Paulohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_S%C3%A3o_Paulohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_S%C3%A3o_Paulo


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impact


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soft power


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africa war defense

#o ris: of great power con6ict over Africa

Barrett ; "o?ert, PhD Military R Strategic Studies, U of Calgary,F6*, htt#066#a#ers5ssrn5com6sol+6Delivery5cfm6SS"!D:(F*F(code+(:'**5#df7a?stractid8:(F*F(Rmirid8*3esterners eager to #romote democracy must ?e /ary of African #oliticians /ho#romise democratic reform /ithout sincere commitment to the #rocess5 Keringmoney to corru#t leaders in e>change for their ta=ing small ste#s a/ay fromautocracy may in fact ?e a /ay of #ushing countries into anocracy5 As such, /orld@nancial lenders and interventionists /ho /ield leverage and inQuence must ta=eres#onsi?ility in considering the rami@cations of African nations /ho ado#tdemocracy in order to maintain elite #olitical #rivileges5 Ehe o?vious reason for this,aside from the #otential costs in human life should conQict arise from hastilyconstructed democratic reforms, is the fact that 3estern donors, in the face of

intrastate /ar /ould then ?e faced /ith channeling funds and resources a/ay fromdemocrati1ation eorts and to/ard conQict intervention ?ased on issues of humansecurity5 Ehis is a #ro?lem, as 3estern nations may ?e increasingly /ary ofintervening in Africa hots#ots after e>#eriencing @rsthand the un#redicta?le andunforgiving nature of societal /arfare in ?oth Somalia and "/anda5 Kn acost?ene@t ?asis, the 3est continues to ?e some/hat reluctant to get involved inAfrica2s dirty /ars, evidenced ?y its #olitical hesitation /hen discussingongoing sanguinary grassroots conQicts in Africa5 $ven as the /orld a#ologi1es for?earing /itness to the "/andan genocide /ithout having intervened, the U nited States, recently using the la?el ]genocide2in the conte>t of the Sudanese conQict &inSe#tem?er of ())9;, has only #roclaimed sanctions against Sudan, /hile dismissingany suggestions at actual intervention &Giry, ())';5 Part of the #ro?lem is

that traditional military and di#lomatic a##roachs at se#arating com?atants andenforcing cease@res have yielded little in Africa5 o #o/erful nations /ant to getem?roiled in conQicts they cannot /in – es#ecially those conQicts in /hich theintervening nation has very little interest5

+utside powers won.t intervene in African con6icts8oc:ing ;' Eim, African Aairs S#ecialist /ith the United States !nstitute ofPeace, ()):, Ea=ing Sides Clashing ie/s on African !ssues, #5 +:FSince the tragedy in Somalia, the trend has ?een for 3estern nations to refuse tosend troo#s into AfricaZs hot s#ots5 Jordan recently underscored this #oint /hen it

e>#ressed frustration /ith the 3estZs failure to commit soldiers to the UAMS!Lmission as a reason for the /ithdra/al of its troo#s from Sierra Leone5 AmericaZsaversion to #eace=ee#ing in Africa also reQects ?roader U5S5 foreign #olicy on thecontinent5 Africa occu#ies a marginal role in American foreign #olicy in general &a#oint highlighted ?y conference #artici#ants;5


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aids defense

3he end of A=8% is within sight>erson &Michael Gerson Aide to President George 35 %ush as Assistant to

the President for Policy and Strategic Planning 3riter for the 3ashington Post [Putting A!DS on the road to e>tinction[ ovem?er *)th, ()**charticles5/ashington#ost5com6()*****)6o#inions6+'((*)*aids#reventionaidstreatmentaidsfreegeneration; SMAfter +) years and +) million funerals, the end of the glo?al A!DS e#idemic issuddenly, une>#ectedly, /ithin sight5 !t /ould ?e a @nal victory for this clever =illerif America /ere too #reoccu#ied and in/ardloo=ing to notice and act5 During thelast * months, the science of A!DS #revention has ?een transformed5 Studies havesho/n dramatic results from male circumcision V a more than F) #ercent reductionin the ris= of transmission from /omen to men5 e/ technologies such asmicro?icides have #roved eective /hen used ?efore e>#osure to the disease5

Ehen, three months ago, came an article in the e/ $ngland Journal of

Medicinetitled Prevention of .!* !nfection /ith $arly Antiretroviral Ehera#y54 Ehestudy found a BF #ercent decrease in transmission to a heterose>ual #artner /henA!DS treatment /as ?egun early5 Ereating A!DS sooner than later is a dramaticallyeective form of A!DS #revention5 Scientists ?egan considering something#reviously unimagina?le5 3hat if these methods of A!DS #revention /ere com?inedV along /ith condom use and the #revention of mothertochild transmission V andaggressively a##lied in the most aected regions and among the most vulnera?legrou#s in Africa7 Scienti@c models #roect that transmission rates, already decliningin most #laces, /ould fall an additional 9) #ercent to F) #ercent5 Ehis raises a#ros#ect com#ara?le to medical achievements such as the eradication of small#o>or advances in cancer treatment5 Currently, for every ne/ A!DS #atient #ut ontreatment, a?out t/o more ?ecome infected5 Millions of lives are saved V ?ut

ground is still lost to the disease5 3ith com?ination #revention, the ?alance /ouldshift5 -or every #erson /ho ?egins treatment, there /ould ?e fe/er than one /ho?ecomes infected5 Ehis /ould eectively ?e the e#idemic2s end5 Ehe K?amaadministration has oIcially ado#ted the goal of creating an A!DSfree generation543hile the @nish line is not yet in sight,4 said Secretary of State .illary "odhamClinton on Euesday, /e =no/ /e can get there, ?ecause no/ /e =no/ the route /eneed to ta=e5 !t reHuires all of us to #ut a variety of scienti@cally #roven #reventiontools to /or= in concert /ith each other54 %ut the #olitical timing of these scienti@c?rea=throughs is #oor5 Ehe ?udget crisis has resulted in a Dar/inian com#etition forresources5 Clinton accom#anied her am?itious A!DS o?ective /ith the notveryam?itious re#rogramming of XF) million for demonstration #roects in fourcountries5 Additional resources can eventually ?e sHuee1ed from e>isting A!DS

#rograms5 !n ())9, the cost of treatment averaged a?out X*,()) #er #erson5 Eoday,it is less than X+') and still declining5 Kther donor nations, along /ith Africancountries themselves, can ta=e additional ?urdens5 et the o?ective is not a minorone5 $arlier A!DS treatment in the develo#ing /orld /ould e>#and the #ool of#eo#le in need of medicine5 !n the main U5S5 .!6A!DS #rogram, Africans currentlystart drugs /hen their CD9 count V the measure of immune system strength V is,on average, a?out *')5 %eginning at a CD9 count of +') V the recommendation ofthe 3orld .ealth Krgani1ation V /ould increase the num?er of Africans ontreatment ?y more than ' million5 An aggressive treatmentas#revention #rogram


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/ould start treatment even earlier5 !n normal economic times, the case for thiseort /ould ?e fairly easy5 American s#ending on all humanitarian aid #rogramsamounts to a?out )5: #ercent of the ?udget5 3hat other marginal s#ending increasecould save millions of lives, end an e#idemic and allo/ #u?lic oIcials to ta=e #art ina historic enter#rise as admira?le as the Marshall Plan7 Ehe #ro#osed #reventionstrategies do not involve much culture /ar controversy5 "eligious conservatives

have no o?ections to treatment and are neither shoc=ed nor alarmed ?ycircumcision V an old ?i?lical acHuaintance5 %ut /ith economic times far fromnormal, the case is com#licated5 $nding the glo?al A!DS e#idemic /ould reHuire amaor #residential #ush5 !t /ould also reHuire congressional "e#u?licans to ma=e ahuman life e>ce#tion to austerity5 Ehis u#hill eort /ould, ho/ever, ?e aided ?y a#ragmatic argument5 Since ())+, the United States has hel#ed #lace millions onA!DS treatment5 !n the #rocess, /e have assumed /hat economists call atreatment mortgage4 V o?ligations that can2t ?e a?andoned /ithout catastro#hicconseHuences5 A maor #revention eort V reducing the num?er of ne/ infectionsto ?elo/ the num?er of ne/ #eo#le #laced on treatment V is the only morallyacce#ta?le strategy that eventually reduces American commitments on A!DS5.aving a?ru#tly gained the scienti@c tools to defeat this e#idemic, /hat remains is

a test of /ill and conscience5

A=8% doesn.t lead to war%ecurity Council /ress elease , SC Meets on .!6A!DS and PNKs, **B)*,

SC6FBB(, htt#066///5un5org6e/s6Press6docs6())*6scFBB(5doc5htm

NAMAL$S. S.A"MA &!ndia; said !ndia had tried to follo/ the Council2s reasoning on

the issue, ?ecause .!6A!DS /as not, and had not ?een, a cause of conQict5 o

country had gone to /ar ?ecause of A!DS5 "esolution *+) &())); had, of course,

made no such claim, ?ut it did say that the #andemic is also e>acer?ated ?y

conditions of violence and insta?ility45 Ehe evidence did not su##ort that either5

A=8% will be cured in the ne7t @ve years%ample ; &!an Sam#le PhD in ?iomedical materials from ueen MaryZs,University of London, Science Corresondent at Ehe Guaradian [%lan=et .! testingZcould see A!DS dying out in 9) yearsZ[ -e?ruary (*st, ()*)#o///5guardian5co5u=6/orld6()*)6fe?6(*6?lan=ettestinghivaids; SM.ealth oIcials are considering a radical shift in the /ar against .! and Aids that/ould see everyone tested for the virus and #ut on a lifetime course of drugs if theyare found to ?e #ositive5 Ehe strategy, /hich /ould involve testing most of the/orldZs #o#ulation for .!, aims to reduce the transmission of the virus that causes

Aids to a level at /hich it dies out com#letely over the ne>t 9) years5 %rian3illiams, #rofessor of e#idemiology at the South African Centre for $#idemiologicalModelling and Analysis in Stellen?osch, said that transmission of .! couldeectively ?e halted /ithin @ve years /ith the use of antiretroviral drugs &A"s;5[Ehe e#idemic of .! is really one of the /orst #lagues of human history,[ 3illiamstold the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in SanDiego5 [! ho#e /e can get to the starting line in one to t/o years and get com#letecoverage of #atients in @ve years5 May?e thatZs ?eing o#timistic, ?ut /eZre facingArmageddon5[ Maor trials of the strategy are #lanned in Africa and the US and /ill


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feed into a @nal decision on /hether to ado#t the measure as #u?lic health #olicy inthe ne>t t/o years5 Ehe move follo/s research that sho/s ?lan=et #rescri?ing ofA"s could sto# .! transmission and halve cases of Aidsrelated tu?erculosis /ithin*) years5 More than +) million #eo#le are infected /ith .! glo?ally and t/o milliondie of the disease each year5 3hile A"s have ?een a huge success in #reventingthe virus from causing full?lo/n Aids, scientists estimate only *( of those living

/ith the infection receive the drugs5 Ehe disease is over/helmingly #revalent insu?Saharan Africa, /hich accounts for a Huarter of all .!6Aids cases glo?ally5 .alfof these are in South Africa5 !n general e#idemics, a #erson /ith .! infects ?et/een@ve to *) others ?efore succum?ing to com#lications of Aids5 Ereating #atients /ithA"s /ithin a year of ?ecoming infected can reduce transmission tenfold, enough tocause the e#idemic to die out5 !n the trials, #eo#le /ill ?e oered .! tests once ayear, either as routine /hen they visit their GP, or through mo?ile clinics in moreremote regions5 Ehose testing #ositive /ill ?e #ut on a lifetime course of A"s5[Kver the #ast (' years /e have saved the lives of #ro?a?ly t/o to three million#eo#le using antiretroviral drugs, ?ut almost nothing /e have done has had anyim#act on transmission of the disease,[ 3illiams said5 [3e have sto##ed #eo#ledying ?ut /e havenZt sto##ed the e#idemic5[ !f #atients ta=e A"s /hen they

should, the amount of virus in their ?odies can fall ?y *),))) times, to a level at/hich they are e>tremely unli=ely to #ass the virus on5 [Ehe Huestion is, can /e usethese drugs not only to =ee# #eo#le alive, ?ut also to sto# transmission and !?elieve that /e can5 3e could eectively sto# transmission of .! in @ve years5[Scientists estimate that the cost of im#lementing the strategy in South Africa alone/ill ?e X+?nX9?n a year5 Ehe /orld currently s#ends X+)?n &*B59?n; a year onAids research and treatment, a @gure that some e>#erts ?elieve /ill dou?le over thene>t decade5 Su?Saharan Africa has seen a dramatic rise in cases of tu?erculosisamong .! #atients, /ho are also susce#ti?le to other infections ?ecause theirimmune systems are /ea=ened5 [!f you factor in all of the costs, in my o#inion,doing this /ould ?e cost saving from day one, ?ecause the cost of the drugs /ould?e more than ?alanced ?y the cost of treating #eo#le for all of these other diseasesand then letting them die,[ 3illiams said5 [3eZre =illing #ro?a?ly half a millionyoung adults every year in the #rime of their life ust at the #oint /here they should?e contri?uting to society and the cost of that to society is enormous,[ he added5[Ehe only thing thatZs more e>#ensive than doing this is not doing this5[ .! #atientsin southern Africa are more li=ely to ta=e A"s /hen they should than #eo#le livingin develo#ed countries, according to health oIcials5 Ehe @nding gives doctors ho#ethat the ?lan=et administering of drugs might su##ress the virus enough that it diesout naturally5 Last year, scientists re#orted marginal success of a .! vaccinefollo/ing a large scale trial in Ehailand5 Ehe vaccine ?ene@ted only +* of those/ho received it5 A vaccine is generally regarded as /orth/hile if it #rotects morethan :) of those treated5


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democracy defense

8emocracies go to war ) =srael and =ndia both prove%haw, ;; &Martin, Professor of !nternational "elations and Politics, University ofSusse>, ())), Democracy and #eace in the glo?al revolution,4htt#066///5susse>5ac5u=6Users6hafa+6democracy5htm, .ensel;!n the glo?al era, esta?lished li?eraldemocratic states do not @ght each other5 %utonce again, it o?vious that this is not sim#ly because they are democracies, ?ut?ecause they are em?edded in the raft of common 3estern and glo?al stateinstitutions5 !ndeed it is not ust li?eral democracies /hich do not @ght each other0the maor non3estern states &"ussia, China, !ndia, %ra1il, etc5;, /hether democraticor not, are not li=ely to @ght /ith the dominant 3estern #o/ers5 Kutside the3estern core of glo?al state #o/er, ho/ever, national centres are more /ea=lyintegrated /ith its institutional structures, and regional institutions /hich mightinhi?it local conQicts are much /ea=er than they are in the core5 !n the Cold 3arera, interstate rivalries ?et/een maor regional #o/ers such as ?et/een "ussiaand China, !ndia and Pa=istan and China, !ndonesia and Malaysia, !ran and !raH,!srael and the Ara? states led to /ars and ?order incidents5 3hile the integrativetendencies in the emerging glo?al #olity, including the democratisation trends, mayincreasingly inhi?it /ars, it clearly remains possible that such interstaterivalries will generate new wars5 !t is clear that democratisation in itself is not aguarantee of /aravoidance in such con@cts5 !srael, the only internally democraticstate in the Middle $ast, has also ?een the most ?elligerent !ndian democracy has?een Huite com#ati?le /ith ?ellicosity to/ards Pa=istan5 Democratic as /ell asmilitary governments may see /ar, so long as it can ?e =e#t limited and relativelycostfree, as a means of ?oosting #o#ularity5 Ehus eltsin2s "ussia sought a militarysolution in the ?rea=a/ay re#u?lic of Chechnya, des#ite the lessons of the lateSoviet failure in Afghanistan5 Knly in defeat did "ussia2s /ea= democracy #enalise

the regime for the ne/ disaster, and then not decisively5

8emocracy doesn.t solve violence within states ) empiricsFerguson, ; &iall, Laurence A5 Eisch Professor of .istory at .arvard University,senior fello/ at the .oover !nstitution, Stanford University, ())F, The War of theWorl! History"s #$e of Hatre, #5 >>>viii, .ensel;Did it matter ho/ states /ere governed7 !t has ?ecome fashiona?le among #oliticalscientists to #osit a correlation ?et/een democracy and #eace, on the ground thatdemocracies tend not to go to /ar /ith one another5 Kn that ?asis, of course, thelongrun rise of democracy during the t/entieth century should have reduced theincidence of /ar5 !t may have reduced the incidence of /ar ?et/een states there is,

ho/ever, at least some evidence that /aves of democrati1ation in the *B()s,*BF)s, and *B)s /ere follo/ed ?y increases in the num?er of civil /ars and /arsof secession5 Ehis ?rings us to a central #oint5 Eo consider t/entiethcentury conQict#urely in terms of /arfare ?et/een states is to overloo= the im#ortance oforgani1ed violence within states5 Ehe most notorious e>am#le is, of course, the/ar /aged ?y the a1is and their colla?orators against the Je/s, nearly si> millionof /hom #erished5 Ehe a1is simultaneously sought to annihilate a variety of othersocial grou#s deemed to ?e ]un/orthy of life2, nota?ly mentally ill and homose>ualGermans, the social elite of occu#ied Poland and the Sinti and "oma #eo#les5 !n all,


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more than three million #eo#le from these other grou#s /ere murdered5 Prior tothese events, Stalin had #er#etrated com#ara?le acts of violence against nationalminorities /ithin the Soviet Union as /ell as e>ecuting or incarcerating millions of"ussians guilty or merely sus#ected of #olitical dissidence5 Kf around four millionnon"ussians /ho /ere de#orted to Si?eria and Central Asia, at least *5F million areestimated to have died as a result of the hardshi#s inQicted on them5 A minimum

estimate for the total victims of all #olitical violence in the Soviet Union ?et/een*B( and *B'+ is t/entyone million5 et genocide #redated totalitarianism5 As /eshall see, the #olicies of forced resettlement and deli?erate murder directed againstChristian minorities in the last years of the Kttoman $m#ire amounted to genocideaccording to the *B9 de@nition of the term5


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israel defense

=srael/alestine con6ict has never escalated%atlotrica?ly lin:ed5[ =n the past, it wasbelieved that the e>#ort of the !ranian revolution /ould undermine #ro3estregimes throughout the Middle $ast, or that failure to resolve the =sraeli"/alestinian con6ict would spar: a regional war5 Eoday, the idea of lin=ageim#lies that SunniShiite violence /ill s#read throughout the region5 3he problemwith all these theories is that there is no evidence to bac: them up5 Eo thecontrary, military success in the Gulf does not translate into di#lomatic success inthe Ara?!sraeli arena5 Ehe Madrid #rocess had a #romising o#ening session, ?ut/hen it came do/n to ?argaining it ran u# against the reality of !sraeliPalestiniandierences5 -urthermore, there is no evidence that local disasters translateinto regional disasters5 Ayatollah "uhollah Khomeini4s =ran failed to e7portthe revolution des#ite national eorts5 3here is no evidence to su##ort the#ro#osition that =sraeli"/alestinian violence has su?stantial regionalrepercussions, let alone that it can lead to regional war 5 Ehe years -;;; to-;;! saw the worst period of =sraeli"/alestinian relations, but the regionalimplication was zero5 #ot one state threatened to @ght =srael, the Arabstreet did not rise to protest, and no Arab regime4s stability wasthreatened5 Ehe United States should not vie/ the Middle $ast as an organic unit5!raHZs #ro?lems are #rimarily !raHi in origin and !raHi in solution5 !ran alone #oses aserious challenge, and the !sraeliPalestinian #ro?lem is im#ortant to solve ?ecauseit is the right thing to do5


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smo:ing defense

%mo:ing isn.t that bad" has health bene@ts%ample, ! E Smo=ing is good for you4 j!an Sam#le Ehe Guardian, 3ednesday FAugust ())+ citing Jodi -la/s at the University of Maryland school ofmedicine,htt#066///5guardian5co5u=6lifeandstyle6())+6aug6):6sho##ing5health_66AD%Smo=ing Eal= to #hysicians and theyZll tell you there are fe/ things you can #ut inyour mouth that are /orse for you than a cigarette5 %ut itZs not all doom and gloom5Smo=ers are at least doing their ?it to slo/ do/n the runa/ay o?esity e#idemic thatis s/ee#ing through the /estern /orld5 [!n many studies, you often @nd smo=ersare slimmer5 3eZve certainly seen it in our studies,[ says Jodi -la/s at the Universityof Maryland school of medicine5 [Some #eo#le thin= itZs due to certain chemicals incigarettes someho/ ma=ing them ?urn more calories, ?ut others ?elieve itsu##resses a##etite5 !t may /ell ?e ?oth5[ Drastically u##ing your chances of cancerand heart disease might not ?e the ?est /ay to avoid o?esity, ?ut itZs certainlyeasier than running round the ?loc=5 Scientists have also found evidence that

smo=ing might, in some circumstances, hel# #revent the onset of variousdementias5 Many dementias go handinhand /ith a loss of chemical rece#tors inthe ?rain that ust ha##en to ?e stimulated ?y nicotine5 Smo=ing seems to ?olsterthese rece#tors, and smo=ers have more of them5 Ehe theory is that smo=ers maythen have more to lose ?efore they start losing their minds5 [!t does seem thatnicotine has a #reventative eect, ?ut the #ro?lem is that the other stu in thecigarette tends to rot everything else,[ says "oger %ulloc=, a s#ecialist in dementiaand director of the Ningshill "esearch Centre in S/indon5 So if your time is nearly u#any/ay, and you have someho/ managed to steer a course #ast the Scylla andChary?dis of heart attac=s and tumours, smo:ing might &ust help you retainyour marbles1


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soft power et of this nonconfrontational logic5 Concerning the /orld outside SouthAmerica, %ra1il2s intentions have never ?een ?ased on any military #o/er, ?ut onmediation, the righteousness of its cause, and the #erformance in the many

international organi1ations the country ?elongs to &Miyamoto, ())B0 (9(F;5 All ofthis indicates ho/ the international #roection #lan so long ago ?y the %ra1ilian elitedoes not mean ta=ing an aggressive #osture to/ard our neigh?ors, much less anyattem#t to modify the glo?al order ?y the use of force5 %ra1il is, to all intents and#ur#oses, a #eaceful country /hich does not relate its e>ternal #olitics to theca#acity of military #roection, choosing instead to o#t for dialog and continuousconcessions5 evertheless, there is the Huestion of /hether this is the #ostureassumed ?y the %ra1ilian elite or sim#ly an o#tion that has arisen out ofcircumstances, derived from the cold evaluation of %ra1il2s strategic #ossi?ilities5Alsina Jr5 ma=es a very closelyargued evaluation of this to#ic and, in a nutshell, hisconclusion is that, regarding the e>istence of a national tradition for the resolutionof conQicts throughout negotiation, nonconfrontational #olitics is also a reQection of

a /ea=ness in national military #o/er that /ill last through the (* st century5.ence, the #re#onderance of di#lomacy over armed force comes from a conciliatorynational identity together /ith the a/areness of the lac= of an eective ca#acity forthe use of force5 Ehus, the idea that the country rationally chose to maintain itsstrength at a lo/ ?ase and to favor negotiation loses strength5 !t /ould only ?e#ossi?le if there /ere a great ca#acity for the construction of #u?lic #olicies andtheir coordination, su?ordinating the military to the di#lomats, /hat has neveroccurred &Alsina Jr5, ())B0 *+;5 Ehe %ra1ilian #ro?lem is that for many reasons&including the country2s relative safety due to its geogra#hic isolation and havingfe/ great rivals in the region; security and defense issues have never received#ro#er attention and the armed forces have never had signi@cant ca#acity for the#roection of #o/er in the (* st century, /hich has inevita?ly meant that the

international issues have ?een left to the di#lomats5


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prolif defense

Dmpirics prove ) no nu:e prolif and no impact

>avin, &Ph5D5 in Di#lomatic .istory from the University of Pennsylvania, aMaster of Studies in Modern $uro#ean .istory from K>ford, and a %5A5 in PoliticalScience &/ith honors; from the University of Chicago, Professor of !nternationalAairs at Lyndon %5 Johnson School of Pu?lic Aairs at the University of Ee>as atAustin, Same as it ever /as,4 M!E #ress ournals,htt#066///5mit#ressournals5org6doi6#df#lus6*)5**F(6isec5()*)5+95+5:;Kne of the greatest fears of nuclear alarmists is that if a =ey state acHuires nuclear/ea#ons, others /ill follo/5 Ehis idea of a nuclear ti# #ing #oint, chain reaction, ordomino4 eect, ho/ever, is ?y no means ne/5 Consider this headlineVManyations "eady to %rea= into uclear Clu?4V from a front#age article in the3ashington Post from June *B*5+B Articles /ith similar titles can ?e found fromalmost every year since at least the early *BF)s5 -ears of a ti##ing #oint /ere

es#ecially acute in the aftermath of China2s *BF9 detonation of an atomic ?om?0 it/as #redicted that !ndia, !ndonesia, and Ja#an might follo/, /ith conseHuences/orld/ide, as !srael, S/eden, Germany, and other #otential nuclear countries farfrom China and !ndia /ould ?e aected ?y #roliferation in Asia549) A U5S5government document identiaed at least eleven nations &!ndia, Ja#an, !srael,S/eden, 3est Germany, !taly, Canada, C1echoslova=ia, $ast Germany, "umania,and ugoslavia;4 /ith the ca#acity to go nuclear, a num?er that /ould soon gro/su?stantially4 to include South Africa, the United Ara? "e#u?lic, S#ain, %ra1il andMe>ico54 and com#le>ity of this #ro?lem ?y creating strong #ressures to develo#inde #endent nuclear forces, /hich, in turn, could strongly inouence the #lans ofother #otential nuclear #o/ers54Ehese #redictions /ere largely /rong5 !n *B' theational !ntelligence Council noted that for almost thirty years the !ntelligence

Community has ?een /riting a?out /hich nations might ne>t get the ?om?54 All ofthese esti mates ?ased their largely #essimistic and ultimately incorrect estimateson fac tors such as the increased access to assile materials,4 im#roved technicalca#a?ilities in countries, the li=elihood of chain reactions,4 or a scram?le4 to#roliferation /hen even one additional state demonstrates a nuclear ca#a ?ility54

Ehe *B' re#ort goes on, Ehe most stri=ing characteristic of the #resentdaynuclear #roliferation scene is that, des#ite the alarms rung ?y #ast $stimates, noadditional overt #roliferation of nuclear /ea#ons has actually occurred since Chinatested its ?om? in *BF954 Although some #roliferation of nuclear e>#losiveca#a?ilities and other maor #roliferationrelated develo# ments have ta=en #lacein the #ast t/o decades,4 they did not have the damaging, system/ide im#actsthat the !ntelligence community generally an tici#ated they /ould549+


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warming defense

Brazil won.t solve warming ) con6icting prioritiesBodman and olfensohn, U5S5 secretary of energy from ())' to ())B,

a %S from Cornell University and a PhD from M!E, /here he /as also associate#rofessor of chemical engineering, James D5 3olfensohn is chairman of 3olfensohnR Com#any, LLC,chairman of Citigrou#2s international advisory ?oard, and adviser to Citigrou#2ssenior management on glo?al strategy and on international matters, .e is ahonorary trustee of the %roo=ings !nstitution, a mem?er of the Council on -oreign"elations, Master of %usiness Administration &M%A; degree at .arvard %usinessSchool, &Glo?al %ra1il and U5S5%ra1il "elations,4 !nde#endent Eas= -orce "e#ort o5FF, Council on -oreign "elations, July *(th, ()**, htt#066///5cfr5org6?ra1il6glo?al?ra1ilus?ra1ilrelations6#('9):;66.ALDes#ite %ra1il2s goals, mitigating climate change often conQicts /ith othergovernmental #riorities, such as #overty reduction, economic develo#ment, and

e>#ansion of trade5 "educing Ama1on deforestation com#etes /ith largescalehydro#o/er develo#ment and construction of transcontinental high/ays to lin=%ra1il2s hinterland /ith the Paci@c Kcean5 "eductions in landuse and agriculturalemissions com#ete /ith %ra1il2s gro/ing agricultural sector5 $ven the #ro#osedreduction #lans have limited ca#acity and can oset each otherVe>#anding ?iofuelsand hydro#o/er may result in greater landuse emissions5 Ehe Eas= -orce /arns thatthese conQicts can reduce the eectiveness of G.G reduction #rograms and #uttheir sustaina?ility at ris=5 Ehe Eas= -orce /elcomes %ra1il2s aggressive #ositionto/ard reducing domestic G.G emissions, going materially ?eyond its o?ligationsunder current climate agreements5 Achieving these goals, ho/ever, /ill ?ecom#licated ?y multi#le com#eting #riorities of economic gro/th, socialdevelo#ment, and trade5

8eveloping countries, la7 regulation, and pro@t ma7imizationmeans warming is inevitable/orter, ! /rites the $conomic Scene column for the 3ednesday %usinesssection &March *B, $duardo, A Model for "educing $missions4htt#066///5nytimes5com6()*+6)+6()6?usiness6use>am#leoersho#eforcuttingcar?onemissions5html7r8*R;

Dven if every American coal "@red power plant were to close, that /ould notma=e u# for the coal ?ased generators ?eing ?uilt in develo#ing countries li=e !ndia

and China5 Since ())), the gro/th in coal has ?een *) times that of rene/a?les,4said Daniel ergin, chairman of !.S Cam?ridge $nergy "esearch Associates5< -atih%irol, chief economist of the !nternational $nergy Agency in Paris, #oints out that ifcivili1ation is to avoid catastro#hic climate change, only a?out one third of the +,)))gigatons of CK( contained in the /orld2s :nown reserves of oil, gas and coal can?e released into the atmos#here5< %ut the /orld economy does not /or= as if this/ere the case V not governments, nor ?usinesses, nor consumers5< !n all mye>#erience as an oil com#any manager, not a single oil com#any too= into the


45/74

#icture the #ro?lem of CK(,4 said Leonardo Maugeri, an energy e>#ert at .arvard/ho until ()*) /as head of strategy and develo#ment for !taly2s stateo/ned oilcom#any, $ni5 Ehey are all totally devoted to re#lacing the reserves they consumeevery year54

3heir studies prove the e7istence of warming, not the impact )doomsday predictions are empirically denied and ignorescientists

John %tossel, A/ard/inning A%C e/s corres#ondent, -;;' Ehe Glo?al 3arming Myth7, htt#066a?cne/s5go5com6()()6Story7id8+)F*)*'R#age8*

Dr5 John Christy, #rofessor of Atmos#heric Science at the University of Ala?ama at.untsville said0 [! remem?er as a college student at the @rst $arth Day ?eing told it/as a certainty that ?y the year ())), the /orld /ould ?e starving and out ofenergy5 Such doomsday #ro#hecies gra??ed headlines, ?ut have proven to be

completely false1G [Similar #ronouncements today a?out catastro#hes due tohumaninduced climate change,[ he continued, [sound all too familiar and all tooe7aggerated to me as someone /ho actually #roduces and analy1es climateinformation5[ Ehe media, of course, li=e the e>aggerated claims5 Most are ?ased oncom#uter models that #ur#ort to #redict future climates5 %ut com#uter models arelousy at predicting climate ?ecause /ater va#or and cloud eects causechanges that com#uters fail to #redict5 !n the mid*B:)s, com#uter models told us/e should #re#are for glo?al cooling5 Scientists tell re#orters that com#uter modelsshould [?e vie/ed /ith great s=e#ticism5[ 3ell, /hy arenZt they7 Ehe fundamentalistdoom mongers also ignore scientists /ho say the eects of glo?al /arming may ?e?enign5 .arvard astro#hysicist Sallie %aliunas said added CK( in the atmos#heremay actually bene@t the world ?ecause more CK( hel#s #lants gro/5 3armer

/inters /ould give farmers a longer harvest season, and might end the droughts inthe Sahara Desert5 3hy donZt /e hear a?out this #art of the glo?al /armingargument7 [!tZs the money[ said Dr5 %aliunas5 [E/enty@ve ?illion dollars ingovernment funding has ?een s#ent since *BB) to research glo?al /arming5 !fscientists and researchers /ere coming out releasing re#orts that glo?al /arminghas little to do /ith man , and most to do /ith ust ho/ the #lanet /or=s, there/ouldnZt ?e as much money to study it5[


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multipolarity


47/74

bric defense

#o impact """ they.ll &ust bandwagon with the 01%1Brilliant, - V senior vice #resident for international aairs at the U5S5 Cham?er of Commerce &Myron, Ehe 3orld in ()+)0 Are /e on the #ath to convergence ordivergence74, Glo?al Erends ()+), '6(:6()*(, htt#066gt()+)5com6()*(6)'6(:6the/orldin()+)are/eonthe#athtoconvergenceordivergence6, Deech;3hile it is true that leaders from Brazil, ussia, China and =ndia no/ meet todiscuss regional and glo?al issues, this is at this time largely a tal=sho# nothing#rofound has come out of these discussions5 Certainly, it is hard to see thesecountries agreeing to ma# out a radical de#arture from the e>isting internationalsystem through alternative institutions5 .o/ever, these countries /ill ?egin todemand changes to the e>isting system or they /on2t #lay ?all /ith the mandatesissued ?y these governance organi1ations5 !t is /orth noting that most of thesecountries see directional alignment with the 0nited %tates as essential forglobal stability V even if they at times have dierent vie/s on critical geo#oliticalissues &e5g5, @ve #lus one on !ran or si>#arty tal=s /ith orth Norea;5 Certainly,China sees itself as more of a #artner of the United States on economic and securitymatters than it /ould !ndia or "ussia, /here the de#endency and trust factor iseven lo/er5 And %ra1ilian President Dilma made it Huite e>#licit /hen shearticulated in 3ashington, D5C5 during her /inter visit that her country2s as#irationis to have a strategic relationshi# /ith the United States in contrast, she said %ra1ilonly /anted a commercial relationshi# /ith China

Aff Brazilian Soft Power DA - Michigan7 2013

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