Aerospace America 2013 11.pdf

Airports, airlines brace for climate impactsReaching for unlimited (almost) flight

A P U B L I C A T I O N O F T H E A M E R I C A N I N S T I T U T E O F A E R O N A U T I C S A N D A S T R O N A U T I C S

November 2013

China’s bold lunar planTHE INSPIRATION THE U.S. COULD DRAW

Written with the airline passenger in mind, the authors arm the flying public with the truth about flight

delays. Their provocative analysis not only identifies the causes and extent of the problems, but also provides solutions that will put air transportation on the path to recovery.

This is a very disturbing book—and it was intended to be. For the crisis in U.S. aviation is far more serious than most people imagine. Donohue and Shaver have given us the best prescription I’ve seen for fixing it.

– Robert W. Poole Jr., Director of Transportation Studies at the Reason Foundation

Donohue and Shaver have taken an enormously arcane and complex set of issues and players and laid them all out very clearly and directly .... It’s among the best and most thoughtful pieces written on the subject ... it’s a very, very good—and mostly evenhanded—distillation of the background and causes of the current quagmire that will only worsen as time is allowed to pass with no real fixes in sight.

– David V. Plavin, former Director of Airports Council International–North America and former Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

The air transportation system is fixable but the patient needs urgent and holistic care NOW. Donohue and Shaver are the doctors, and the doctors are in! They have the knowledge and capability to work through this problem to success if we as a community want to fix the system.

– Paul Fiduccia, President of the Small Aircraft Manufacturers Association

An impassioned and controversial look at the current state of aviation in the U.S. by a former FAA insider. This is must read material for those concerned with how the aviation system affects them as an airline passenger.

– Glen J. D. McDougall, President of MBS Ottawa and former Director General, Department of Transport Canada

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TerminalCHAOSWhy U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It

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Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344[703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright ©2013 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S.Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 51, No. 10.

November 2013

AIAA Meeting Schedule B2AIAA Courses and Training Program B4AIAA News B5

BULLETIN

CHINA’S BOLD LUNAR PLAN 24Emerging details on China’s new Chang’e 3 robotic lunar landersuggest it could be adapted to carry human crews.by Craig Covault

CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVIATION: 30Aviation decision-makers are giving greater attention to devisingstrategies for dealing with climate change.by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

UNMANNED MARATHONERS 36Unmanned planes that can fly for days or even years at a time could become ‘the next big thing’ in aviation.by Marc Selinger

EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK 3A fresh start.

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4Winners and losers in Europe’s defense program cuts.

WASHINGTON WATCH 6Shutdown, sequestration, and the Silent Eagle.

AIRCRAFT UPDATE 10Military transports: Back to neglect.

ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 12Composite tanks promise major savings.

THE VIEW FROM HERE 16Strong ARM for seizing a space rock.

GREEN ENGINEERING 20The new meaning of additive value.

OUT OF THE PAST 42

CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 44

ON THE COVERPhoto by Masi Gianluca/Dreamstime.com

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The most exciting thing about my new role as editor-in-chief of AerospaceAmerica is that I’m joining AIAA at a critical juncture for the aerospace community and for the profession of journalism.

Today’s aerospace professionals and educators need reliable informationnow more than ever. Government budgets are flagging and nationaleconomies are in transition. Innovation and creativity are the only factors thatcan keep the profession progressing. What’s clear is that humanity is in nomood for excuses. People want to fly faster and more affordably. They expectto communicate effortlessly without wires. They need protection from terror-ists and rogue states. They want answers to the big questions: Are we alonein the universe? Are we ruining our planet? Are humans in space to stay?

Well-read professionals and academics will do a better job of pushing societies forward on these and many other issues. Indeed, your appetite forideas and your embrace of the digital media have sparked a fierce competitionamong media outlets. In this new media market, my goal is to make sureAerospace America stays your go-to source for in-depth, non-sensationalizedinformation about all things aerospace.

As the magazine of the AIAA, our coverage should serve members in twoways: It should inform you about the most critical developments in government,business, and research. But it also should enhance the national conversationabout aerospace priorities and strategies, a conversation whose outcomes arecritical to members and the broader society.

How will our team accomplish all this? First, by digging into topics with anindependent spirit worthy of my predecessor, Elaine Camhi, who stayed onduring the transition to help produce this edition of the magazine. Second, by modernizing Aerospace America to make it even more user-friendly andrelevant to our readers.

I come to these challenges equipped with some core tenets from my yearsin online and print journalism, including my role as a long-time contributor toAerospace America:

•High-quality journalism can be the glue that binds a community together. It can help solve problems, advance technologies, and dispelmisperceptions.

•No topic relevant to the aerospace community should be out of boundsfor thoughtful exploration and commentary.

•Print and online media products should work together to deliver unprecedented depth and choice to consumers.

•Content can be fun to read and still be intelligent and thought provoking.These tenets are like the lines on a highway. They set us on the right path,

but navigating the terrain beyond them will demand flexibility and freshthinking. I invite you to join Aerospace America on a journey that will enrichyour professional lives.

Ben IannottaEditor-in-Chief

is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Ben IannottaEditor-in-ChiefPatricia JeffersonAssociate EditorGreg WilsonProduction EditorJerry Grey, Editor-at-LargeChristine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin

CorrespondentsRobert F. Dorr, WashingtonPhilip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe

Contributing WritersRichard Aboulafia, James W. Canan,Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, LeonardDavid, Philip Finnegan, Edward Goldstein,Tom Jones, Chris Kjelgaard, James Oberg,David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson

Jane FitzgeraldArt Direction and Design

Michael Griffin, PresidentSandra H. Magnus, PublisherCraig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution

STEERING COMMITTEESteven E. Gorrell, Brigham Young University;Basil Hassan, Sandia; Merri Sanchez,Sierra Nevada; Mary L. Snitch, LockheedMartin; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute ofTechnology; Susan X. Ying, Boeing

EDITORIAL BOARDNed Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher,Michael Francis, Cam Martin,Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell

ADVERTISING Robert Silverstein, [email protected] Brody [email protected]

Send materials to Craig Byl ([email protected]),AIAA, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500,Reston, VA 20191-4344. Changes of addressshould be sent by e-mail at [email protected],or by fax at 703.264.7551.Send correspondence to [email protected].

November 2013, Vol. 51, No. 10

®

Editor’s Notebook

A fresh start

Winners and losers in Europe’s defenseprogram cuts

4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/NOVEMBER 2013

programs are now out of the ques-tion—especially if economies do notimprove as hoped. But it does meanthat the impact of the cuts will con-tinue to fall far more lightly on avia-tion than on other areas.

EU defense ministers, meeting asmembers of the European DefenseAgency (EDA) steering board in No-vember 2011, agreed on a number ofareas where European states neededto increase their capabilities throughpooling and sharing national assets.These include helicopter training, mar-itime surveillance, satellite communi-cations, AAR, ISR, pilot training, andsmart munitions.

Recent conflicts in Afghanistan andLibya have starkly revealed Europe’scontinuing dependence on the U.S.for key capabilities. The need to de-velop ISR and AAR capabilities nowhas a new urgency.

At the Paris Air Show in June, Eu-rope’s EADS Cassidian, Dassault Avia-tion, and Alenia Aermacchi issued ajoint statement calling for the launchof a joint European medium-altitudelong-endurance (MALE) UAV programto help address the shortfall in ISR ca-pabilities. In September the Frenchand German governments asked formore details of these proposals. It is amarket currently dominated by U.S.and Israeli unmanned air systems(UAS), and one of the key issues fac-ing European defense departments isthe need to ensure that, nationally andcollectively, Europe retains an indige-nous aerospace and defense capabilityeven while new programs are beingcut or delayed.

As France’s defense departmentoutlined in its Livre Blanc defensestrategy, published this April, “ThePresident of the Republic has chosento preserve all the critical industrialsectors that make our industrial andtechnological base an instrument forpreserving France’s strategic auton-

18% in 2010 and a further 19% in2011. Romania introduced cuts of 13%in 2010.”

In February 2011, before evenmore drastic cuts were announced,NATO Secretary General Anders FoghRasmussen said, “Over the past twoyears, defense spending by NATO’sEuropean member nations has shrunkby $45 billion dollars—that is theequivalent of Germany’s entire annualdefense budget.”

According to recent figures fromthe Stockholm International Peace Re-search Institute (SIPRI), only Estonia,Poland, Slovenia, and Albania spent alarger portion of gross domestic prod-uct on defense than than they did 12years ago.

The bigger pictureBut these figures do not tell the wholestory. Approximately 70% of all de-fense spending in Europe is concen-trated on five states where the de-clines have been much less and havefallen, to a large part, on troop num-bers rather than equipment. Even afterthe current round of cuts, Europe willstill spend more than half its militarybudget on personnel. Both the U.K.and France, far and away the largestmilitary spenders in Europe, have putin place strategic defense reviewsaimed at safeguarding long-term ac-quisition programs, many of which areair- rather than ground- or sea-based.

This does not mean that furthercuts or delays to aircraft acquisition

EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS WILL MEETin Brussels in December at the EUCouncil to discuss how defense capa-bilities can be enhanced, or at leastmaintained, during the current periodof economic hardship. For military air-craft manufacturers, the meeting couldgo at least some way toward sortingout a major area of confusion in theEuropean market.

Collectively, the European Unionis committed to enhancing capabilitiesin areas such as maritime surveillance,air-to-air refueling (AAR), pilot train-ing, and intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance, or ISR (which meansnew aircraft and systems will be re-quired). However, individual nationaldefense equipment budgets are insteep decline. So where will the cashcome from for these new projects?

Severe reductionsSince the financial crisis of 2008, EUstates have drastically reduced defensespending. In 2012, according to theLondon-based Institute for StrategicStudies, European NATO members’defense spending was, in real terms,around 11% lower than in 2006. Someof the smaller European states haveslashed their defense budgets by hugeamounts.

According to Christian Mölling,writing in a Brookings Institution re-port titled The Implications of MilitarySpending Cuts for NATO’s LargestMembers, “The largest budget cutshave been introduced in the smallerEU member states, with rates above20%. Latvia notably reduced militaryspending by 21% in 2009. Lithuaniacut 36% in 2010. The majority of mid-dle-sized countries have implementedmilitary spending cuts of 10 to 15%,on average. For example, the CzechRepublic and Ireland reduced their de-fense budget by 10% in 2011 and 2010respectively. Portugal cut 11% in 2010.Greek military spending dropped by

2012 EUROPEAN DEFENSE SPENDING BY FIVE KEY NATIONS

Country World Defense ranking budget, €billions

U.K. 4 60.8 France 6 58.9 Germany 9 45.8 Italy 10 34.0Turkey 15 18.2Source: SIPRI

AEROSPACE AMERICA/NOVEMBER 2013 5

omy and its sovereignty. It implies acontinued priority…in favor of re-search and development spendingand investment to equip our forceslooking to 2025.”

The AAR shortfall is being metpartly by an increase in national capa-bilities and partly by a new pan-Euro-pean procurement program managedby the EDA. By the end of 2013 theRAF will have taken delivery of six outof 14 Airbus A330 Multi-Role TankerTransports (MRTT)—via the FutureStrategic Tanker Aircraft program,which will see it lease the aircraft un-der a private finance initiative with theAirTanker consortium. In addition,Italy now has four Boeing KC767s.Further AAR capabilities will come online as Europe’s air forces take deliv-ery of the Airbus Military A400M,which entered service with the Frenchair force earlier this year.

U.K.: Ups as well as downsAlthough the U.K.’s overall defensebudget is set to remain more or lessstatic next year, the government iscommitted to a 1% annual real growthin the equipment budget next yearover 2013. Spending on the programto buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35B air-craft for deployment aboard the RoyalNavy’s two aircraft carriers, in particu-lar, is due to increase sharply from2015 to 2016. The RAF has 232 Euro-fighter Typhoon aircraft on order, andthe first Tranche 3 aircraft is due fordelivery by the end of this year. At theend of October, 109 aircraft had been

delivered to the RAF. Tranche 3 capabil-

ity includes over 350modified parts, in-cluding provision forconformal fuel tanks,extra electrical power,and cooling to caterfor the E-Scan radar.The Tranche 3 con-tract has been signedand will deliver 40 air-craft. With the Tranche1 aircraft fleet due toretire over the period

2015-2018, this will leave 107 Ty-phoons in RAF service until 2030.

If further reductions are needed,the number of Tranche 3 deliveriescould be cut or deferred, or, morelikely, the U.K. might cut its totalplanned buy of 138 F-35Bs. The coun-try is also currently building twoaircraft carriers—if one were to becanceled as a result of budget cuts,the number of F-35s requireds,by the Royal RoyNavy wouldfall by half.

The U.K. has already lost maritimepatrol and long-range strike assets. Inits May 2010 Strategic Defense and Se-curity Review, the U.K. governmentannounced that the Panavia Tornadowould remain the RAF’s main strikeaircraft and the RAF and Royal NavyBAE Systems Harrier squadrons wouldbe retired. The BAE Systems NimrodMRA4 maritime patrol/intelligence-gathering program has been scrappedas a result of the defense review. TheU.K. has also cut its order for A400Mmilitary transports from 25 to 22.

Another significant U.K. defensespending review is planned for 2015.By then it should be clear whether thecountry is out of the current recession

and defense spending can return topre-austerity levels.

The French planFrance’s strategic defense plan hasoutlined a fall in the annual defensebudget from 1.9% to 1.76% of thecountry’s GDP. Some €364 billion hasbeen allocated for 2014-2025, includ-ing €179 billion for 2014-2019. Francehas cut orders for the Dassault Rafaleto 26 from a previously planned 60deliveries over the period, with thetotal combat air force set to be cut to225 aircraft by 2025, from a previoustarget of 300.

The review has also prioritized theacquisition of ISR MALEs, strategic airtransports, and AAR aircraft. Francehas a total of 50 A400Ms on order, thefirst of which was delivered in Augustthis year. But the delivery timetable forthese platforms has been delayed un-

der the latest draft pro-posals, due to be rati-

fied by year’s end. Thespending plan covers the

acquisition of 15A400Ms between2014 and 2019 and

two Airbus MilitaryA330 MRTTs out of a

long-term proposal toacquire 12. France would also acquire42 NH Industries NH90s and 16 Euro-copter Tigers. In June France con-cluded a deal with the Pentagon topurchase 16 General Atomics Aero-nautical Systems MQ-9 Reaper UASunits.

GermanyGermany’s defense department hasplans to cut its budget by at least €2billion to 2016, resulting in possiblereductions in the procurement of heli-copters, fighters, and military transportaircraft (60 A400Ms are on order).

Press reports at the start of thisyear suggested that the Bundeswehr isplanning not to buy the last tranche of37 Eurofighter aircraft it has orderedand was planning to cut long-standingcommitments for NH90 naval helicop-

The AAR shortfall is being met in part by a pan-European procurementprogram that included leasing Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transports.

Several countries haveannounced or are considering reducing their orders for F-35s.

(Continued on page 9

Shutdown, sequestration,and the Silent Eagle


comply with thecuts is by elimi-nating an entirefleet of aircraft. Atfirst, they consid-ered the service’s59 KC-10A Exten-der tanker-trans-ports or its 65 B-1B Lancerbombers. But it

soon became clear that the Air Staff’sreal target is the inventory of 326 A-10C Thunderbolt II attack planes. “Ifthe sequester continues, they’ll have togo,” said Gen. Mike Hostage, head ofthe Air Combat Command. “In a per-fect world, I would like 1,000 A-10s,but with the sequester I can’t affordany.”

Enter Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.).Ayotte told James she had seen a

PowerPoint slide from the Air Forcesaying the A-10 would be phased outby FY15. “That makes me concernedthat there already has been a decisionmade about the A-10,” when, in fact,no such decision has been announced,Ayotte said. The senator cited a recentincident in which 60 U.S. soldiers weresaved in Afghanistan because of closeair support provided by the A-10.James replied that no decision hasbeen made.

Ayotte placed a hold on the James

first beneficiaries of the Senate’s im-proved performance—or so it seemed—

was Deborah Lee James, the defensecontractor nominated to be the nextAir Force Secretary. Little controversywas evident when James testified be-fore the Senate Armed Services Com-mittee September 19.

James gave predictable responsesto questions about military programs.She said she supports the Air Force’scurrent priorities: the KC-46 air-refuel-ing tanker, F-35 Lightning II Joint StrikeFighter, and Long Range Bomber. Sheexpressed concern about military op-erations being affected by possible re-tirement of the A-10 aircraft andagreed with Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)that if the service were to eliminate anentire class of aircraft, “we’d better besure that we’ve got something else thatwill serve that mission in the interimuntil one of the futuristic programscomes online.”

James almost certainly would havepreferred to testify about aircraft, butsenators grilled her repeatedly abouttwo issues that have embarrassed theservice in recent months, religious pros-elytizing in the workplace and sexualassault throughout the Air Force. Jamesappeared to have overcome these con-cerns by calling for dignity and respectfor all in the ranks.

Even as the nominee was testify-ing, the Air Force’s uniformed leaderswere saying that if the budget-cuttingprocess known as sequestration re-mains in effect, the only way they can

THE ANNUAL BUDGET PROCESS THAThas kept the government functioningfor the past hundred years now seemsto be a distant memory to many inWashington.

While the White House and HouseRepublicans argued over the partialgovernment shutdown, issues of graveimportance, such as immigration re-form and U.S. policy toward Iran, werepushed aside. President Obama’s meet-ing with Israeli Prime Minister Ben-jamin Netanyahu was largely overshad-owed. A CNN News poll showed thatonly 10% of the U.S. public approves ofwhat Congress is doing. The executivebranch fared little better, with a declinein President Barack Obama’s approvalrating and a sharp increase in citizencomplaints about the functioning ofcabinet departments.

During the partial shutdown,NASA said 98% of its employeeswould be furloughed, while the figurewas just 33% for the Dept. of Trans-portation. Air traffic controllers were atwork while air safety inspectors stayedhome. Meat inspectors in the Dept. ofAgriculture were on duty while meatinspectors in the Food and Drug Ad-ministration were not.

In spite of it all, as we entered au-tumn, much of the nation’s businesscontinued, including the business ofaerospace.

Air Force secretaryAlmost unnoticed amid the budget tur-moil, the Senate quietly streamlined itsprocess for considering nominees forhigh office. It appeared to be on theverge of confirming a new Secretary ofthe Air Force—when that, too, wassidetracked.

Thanks to an agreement reachedby Democrats and Republicans lastspring, executive branch nomineeswho require Senate confirmation cannow expect a fairly prompt decision.Or at least in most cases: Among the

KC-46 air-refueling tanker

Sen. Kelly Ayotte(R-N.H.)


nomination—as any one senator is em-powered to do—and called for a “sub-stantial response” from the Air Forceon the A-10’s future. Days later, Sen.Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) separatelyplaced a hold on the nomination.Heinrich’s office said his action wasnot related to the A-10 issue but wouldnot give his reason.

Proponents for cutting the A-10 ar-gue its close air support mission canbe performed by other aircraft. But theplane is popular in the Army, whereground troops are said to love the sup-port it provides, and also with some inCongress. James was expected to winSenate confirmation eventually as theAir Force’s next civilian chief.

Seeing sequestrationBefore the October 1 shutdown, thenation’s military service chiefs testified

in open session on CapitolHill that the armed

forces will not be ableto do their job if se-questration contin-ues.

And yet, theautomatic spend-ing cuts ap-peared to be thenew normal. The

measure mandatesa $52-billion reduc-

tion in defense spend-ing for FY14, and a $1.1-

trillion cut over 10 years.Speaking to the House Armed

Services Committee, the flag officers incharge of the Air Force, Army, MarineCorps, and Navy were asked by Rep.Randy Forbes (R-Va.) whether theycould carry out military requirementsif sequestration—or anything similar—remained in place. One by one thethree generals and one admiral said,simply, “No.”

Gen. Mark Welsh, USAF chief ofstaff, told representatives during theSeptember session that the Air Forcemay have to retire one of its currentaircraft fleets to protect funding for itsthree top future priorities, the KC-46Aair-refueling tanker, F-35A Lightning II,

and Long Range Strike Bomber. All arein one stage of development or an-other, but none is anywhere near be-coming operational. The Air Forcewants 100 of the bombers, which arethe farthest from completion. Theseare built with low observables, or‘stealth,’ to make them hard to detecton radar. They also feature satellite-guided munitions, sophisticated sen-sors, and electronic jamming gear.

Critics say multimission aircraftlike the F-35—in contrast to single-mis-sion warplanes like the A-10—do notperform any single task well enoughand are too costly to procure and op-erate. The F-35 or JSF program is nowa $1.1-trillion effort aimed at providing2,443 airplanes to U.S. squadrons over55 years. Getting rid of a current air-craft in order to afford a new one islike burning the furniture to save thehouse, say critics, who for years haveeyed the F-35 as a target for cancella-tion. While the plane is racking upsome successes today, it has been

plagued with delays and technicalglitches. The latter have long includedjittery images on the pilot’s helmet-mounted cueing sight. Now a newproblem has arisen: Officials say thetires on the Marine Corps F-35B shorttakeoff and landing model are wear-ing out too soon.

Outside the U.S., the F-35 may seesome defections by nations that origi-nally were partners in the project. TheDutch announced in September thatthey would commit to 37 of the fight-ers, 48 fewer than their original total.Denmark, once committed to 30planes, is now considering other fight-ers. Italy has reduced its order from 121to 90. The governments of Canada andTurkey are now reconsidering theirearly commitments to the aircraft andcould drop out of the program entirely.

F-35 progressAt Eglin AFB, Florida, the 33rd FighterWing is showing results after years ofpreparing to provide initial training toAir Force, Marine Corps, and Navy F-35 pilots. Although the aircraft’s ar-rival and the training of pilots at thebase began two years behind sched-ule, both are now in full swing.

The 33rd wing has one trainingsquadron for each service branch andexamples of all three JSF versions—theAir Force F-35A conventional takeoffversion, the Marine Corps F-35B, andthe Navy’s carrier-capable F-35C. OnAugust 13, the wing logged its 2,000thsortie by an F-35. Although Eglin re-mains the center of activity for theprogram, fully half a dozen bases areGen. Mark Welsh, USAF chief of staff

Rep. Randy Forbes(R-Va.)

F-35C


clude temporary layoffs. At whatshould have been the start of the gov-ernment’s 2014 fiscal year, FAA Ad-ministrator Michael Huerta heededShuster’s advice to find other ways tosave. According to Shuster’s office, theFAA spent $514 million on consul-tancy fees last year and could elimi-nate about half of these with almostno impact on daily operations.

In other civil aviation develop-ments, an FAA-sponsored govern-ment-industry panel recommended inSeptember that the agency permit air-line passengers to use email, texting,and web surfing as well as e-readersand MP3 players during takeoff andlanding. The panel did not review theuse of in-flight phone calls, which arebanned by the FCC. Under currentFAA guidelines, airlines prohibit theuse of all electronic devices until anaircraft has climbed above 10,000 ft.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) is-sued a statement saying she was “notbreaking out my iPad in celebrationjust yet,” and that if the FAA does notimplement the panel’s recommenda-tions she will sponsor legislation tomake it happen.

Some in Washington view the con-vening of the panel as a largely cos-metic measure, with the FAA unlikelyto introduce change unless pressuredby lawmakers. Experts disagree onwhether electronic devices endangeraircraft systems. Many point out thatthe current prohibition has little mean-ing anyway, since passengers andeven crewmembers often ignore therule with impunity. Robert F. Dorr

[email protected]

now operating the aircraft. At the endof September, planemaker LockheedMartin was preparing to deliver the100th F-35.

On September 24 the worldwide F-35 program received a boost it maynot have earned when the South Ko-rean government rejected a bid by Boe-ing to build 60 F-15SE Silent Eagle fight-ers, saying it needs a more advancedwarplane. Seoul will reboot its fightercompetition, known as Fighter Experi-mental Phase III or FX-3, from which ithad earlier disqualified the F-35 and theEurofighter Typhoon. The decision notto buy the F-15SE was unexpected—

South Korea has been pleased with itsfleet of 60 F-15K Slam Eagles.

South Korea is expected to for-mally reopen the FX-3 competitionand officially reconsider the samethree fighters: the F-35, Typhoon, andF-15SE. But at this juncture, and withJapan having recently done the same,Seoul isn’t expected to seriously con-sider any aircraft other than the F-35.Leaders in the country’s air force andacquisitions agency say privately thatthe F-35 is now the only contender.

Civil aviation issuesThe FAA is telling Congress, the press,and the public that America’s skies aresafe despite a new FAA report that air-craft flew too close to each other fully4,394 times last year—more than dou-bling the previous record from 2011.

“We run the safest and most effi-cient system in the world, and wehave the most highly skilled con-trollers and technicians,” said DavidGrizzle, FAA’s chief operating officer,in a letter accompanying the report.Grizzle suggested that the increase innear misses may actually amount tonothing more than an increase in thereporting of incidents. Aircraft madealmost 133 million takeoffs and land-ings last year, with rare mishaps.

Like some federal agencies but notall, the FAA began furloughing work-ers, including air traffic controllers, lastspring. The move brought a quick re-sponse from Congress, with lawmak-ers such as Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) ar-guing the agency should findcost-saving measures that do not in-

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)

Spain, whose government investedin a new facility to build both theNH90 and the Tiger, wants to reduceits NH90 order to 38 aircraft from 45.Its 2012 defense budget fell by 8%over 2011. Spain had initially bought87 Typhoons but announced in Au-gust that it wanted to take delivery ofjust 73 and find customers for theother 14. It has 27 A400Ms on orderbut is now looking to offload 13 ofthese to other customers.

Elsewhere in Europe, the financialcrisis forced Portugal in 2012 to cancelits order for all 10 NH90s it had on or-der, while the Netherlands has cut itsoriginal requirement for 85 LockheedF-35As to 37. Denmark has postponeda decision on how to replace its F-16fighter aircraft.

Is the era of defense cutting nowover in Europe? Probably not.

Philip [email protected]

Brighton, U.K.

ters and Eurocopter Tiger multirole at-tack helicopters. Germany had initiallyordered 122 NH90 TTHs and 80 TigerUHTs in separate deals, but decided in2011 to cut these orders to 82 NH90sand 57 Tigers. The final shape of thebudget cuts will not be known untilthe end of this year.

Other cutsThe Italian government announced inJuly that it would cut its planned pur-chase of Typhoons from 121 to 96,saving $2.6 billion, and has cut thenumber of F-35s it wants to buy from131 to 90.

Events CalendarNOV. 3-7Twenty-second International Congress of Mechanical Engineering.Ribeirao Preto, Brazil.Contact: Joao Luiz F. Azevedo, [email protected];www.abcm.org.br/cobem2013

NOV. 5-72013 Aircraft Survivability Technical Forum. Monterey, California.Contact: Laura Yuska, 703/247-2596; www.ndia.org/meetings/4940

NOV. 5-7Eighth International Conference Supply on the Wings. Frankfurt, Germany.Contact: R. Degenhardt, +49 531 295 3059; www.airtec.aero

What about private enterprise?In “Russian rocket engines forever?”(October Commentary), what is miss-ing is reference to SpaceX and BlueOrigin, companies in the U.S. that aredeveloping rocket engines. It is quitepossible that private enterprise willtake over the technology developedby governments and provide betterrocket engines in the future than anygovernment. James A. Martin

Huntington Beach, [email protected]

Hot and cold on “Weather or climate?”Dr. [Jerry] Grey (September Comment-ary) has chosen to join the ranks ofclimate change deniers; those whodispute that anthropogenic climatechange is leading to dire effects on theEarth. Dr. Grey takes the familiar tackof the climate change deniers bycherry picking the data and choosingoutliers, instead of looking for trends.

Shalom FisherGreenbelt, Md.

[email protected]

That is the most level-headed, concisediscussion of the topic that I have seen.The topic needs discussion not hyper-bole and salesmanship. Thank you forbroaching the issue. Steven Howe

Idaho Falls, [email protected]

Just a quick THANK YOU to JerryGrey and his Commentary. About timewe looked at this issue from a factsstandpoint, not politics. Jere Matty

Winchester, [email protected]

Helium or hydrogen?The LZ-130 [Zeppelin] was not ‘de-signed for helium,’ but was rather ex-tensively renovated so as to still carryabout half its design load with prom-ised American helium. (SeptemberOut of the Past) R G Van Treuren

Edgewater, [email protected]

Corrections: The illustration on page34 of NEO Threats: Homeland securityfor planet Earth (October) showsJapan’s forthcoming Hayabusa-2spacecraft preparing to take a samplefrom an asteroid.

In the September Aircraft Update col-umn, Sikorsky’s X2 demonstrator ispictured in the photo on the upperleft side of page 20. Bell Helicopter’sproposed V-280 Valor was not pic-tured and is not based on X2 technol-ogy, as was stated. The column alsoincorrectly stated that Bell Helicopteris not interested in the civil helicoptermarket.

All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless it isexpressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response. Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected].

The NH90 may be another program to face cutsin orders.


(Continued from page 5)

IN THEORY AND IN CONCEPT, MODERNmilitaries should be equipping them-selves for rapid deployment as forcesshrink and contingencies multiply. Po-litical leaders play up the virtues offorce mobility. However, the rhetoricof strategy is not being matched bythe reality of the market, which re-mains quite flat.

For example, in September, Boe-ing delivered the USAF’s last C-17, the223rd to enter Air Force service.Within a few days, the company alsoannounced that although it will stilldeliver 22 more C-17s, the line willshut in 2015. Meanwhile, in Europe,another round of budget cuts is threat-ening the viability of the A400M pro-gram. Aside from the C-130J, the mar-ket shows no signs of growth and toomany players.

The end of an era?The C-17, once a near-dead programthat exemplified cost overruns andbad contracting, turned into a remark-able success story. Not only did costscome down to a level that representsgood value even by civil aviationstandards, it also scored the first ex-port sales of any Western strategictransport.

As of September, Boeing had de-livered 257 C-17s (223 to the USAF, 34to international customers). Of the 22remaining C-17s, seven will go to In-dia (which has already taken three),and two are for an unnamed cus-tomer, probably Kuwait.

The remaining 13 are effec-tively being built on spec. Boe-ing’s second quarter 2013 earn-ings report, filed with theSecurities and Exchange Com-mission, indicated that $620million is obligated in inventoryand potential termination liabil-ities for these additional planes.While this ‘white tail’ buildstrategy carries risk, India has

said it is interested in six more of theplanes, and South Korea’s defensebudget calls for the purchase of four.Assuming those contracts are signed,the other three could go to one ormore existing customers (Australia,Canada, NATO, Qatar, UAE, and theU.K.).

However, the two biggest potentialnew customers represent an upsidefor the program, if they move aheadwith purchase plans in the next 12-24months. The first is Saudi Arabia,which almost certainly has a require-ment for a plane in this class and hasa history of buying high-end defenseproducts. Indeed, the country is con-spicuously absent from the C-17 orderbook. It has been similarly absentfrom that of the C-130J as well, but itis now negotiating a contract for 20 C-130Js, against a total requirement for70-80. Clearly, the country is inter-ested in bolstering its military lift capa-bilities. Saudi Arabia alone would begood for 10-20 C-17s.

The second large possibility isJapan, which is developing its indige-nous Kawasaki C-2, a twinjet transportsmaller than the C-17 but at least asexpensive. Progress on this programhas been uncertain, and if it fails to goahead (for technical or economic rea-sons), Japan would likely buy around15-20 C-17s as an alternative.

Beyond these, Boeing has offeredthe Air Force a plan to buy 20 usedUSAF C-17s if the service in turn buysnew ones. This would extend the line

Military transports: Back to neglect


to 2016 or 2017. However, it is notclear that the service is interested, orthat it is feasible for the Air Force totransfer cash generated from aircraftsales to the procurement account inorder to buy new planes. A final com-plication concerns the market; it is notcertain that any countries would be in-terested in used C-17s.

In short, unless Saudi Arabiacomes through with an order in thenext year or so, the U.S. will find itselfin a few years with no strategic trans-port production line, and an agingfleet of 220 C-17s and 49 C-5Ms. Thereis also no R&D money to create a newstrategic transport.

A400M: A strange story turns stranger

Assuming the C-17 dies and the U.S.fails to develop a follow-on in thenext 10-20 years, Europe’s A400M mayhave a good shot at the export market.Conceivably, there could even be U.S.demand for the plane. But its short-term prospects are rather difficult. Itshopes for long-term survival, likethose of the C-17, are predicated onthe arrival of export orders that maywell fall through.

The A400M was created as a sin-gle-phase fixed-price procurementprogram. That is, the partner countriesplaced a single contract covering de-velopment of the plane and produc-tion of 180 aircraft. When this contractwas renegotiated (after massive costoverruns) in March 2010, the total tobe built was reduced to 170 for thehome market, plus another four forMalaysia, the only firm export contractreceived so far.

Over the past year, however, sev-eral key partner countries have an-nounced plans to reduce their com-mitments. Germany now says it willtry to sell 13 of its 53 planes. France’slatest defense white paper calls forcutting its 50 planes to 35-40 in the

C-17


2014 budget. Spain plans on reducingits 27-aircraft commitment to just 14planes, with the remaining 13 to beresold to export customers.

The program is technically backon track. The first production A400Mmade its first flight in March, with firstdeliveries to France in August of thisyear. But it is not entirely clear howthe economics will play out. Several ofthe countries involved, most notablyFrance, seem unaware that under afixed-price contract they will pay a setamount, regardless of whether or notthey cut back on numbers of planesordered. They will merely pay moreper unit received. If they try to pay asmaller aggregate amount, Airbus maythreaten to cancel the deal, a movethey threatened just prior to the 2010renegotiation.

In a further complication, the 2010renegotiated agreement contained a€1.5-billion Export Levy Facility, es-sentially a lump payment to Airbus tobe recouped by a tax on A400M ex-ports. Basically, the two countries thatnow want to sell a total of 26 planesto export customers will be competingwith Airbus Military to sell A400Ms oninternational markets. If these twocountries sell their planes, they are ef-fectively depriving themselves of rev-enue from the export levy.

Then there is the question of

whether the plane will be competitivein export markets, an issue underlinedby a near-absence of sales despite adecade of international campaigns(Malaysia’s four-plane order is theonly success; a South African orderwas canceled). The big question con-cerns the aircraft’s price, which maywell rise with home market procure-ment cuts. And if that export levy isapplied over, say, 100 planes,that is a €15-million tax oneach aircraft, not counting in-flation and any interestcharged by the governmentsbehind the levy. The A400Mmay be economically prob-lematic for much of the inter-national market.

In short, while the A400Mappears to have matured technologi-cally, there are still major questionsabout its commercial viability both athome and in export markets.

The happier middleThe only true and enduring successstory in the military transport market isLockheed Martin’s C-130J Hercules.The C-130, in fact, is the longest-run-ning aircraft in production today. Indeed, it might be the longest-run-ning aircraft production program ever,with the first planes delivered in themid-1950s.

The current incarnation, the J Se-ries, started slowly and almost turnedinto a disaster. Lockheed shot itself inthe foot by trying to pass on massivecost overruns to customers. Just whenit started to recover, the Pentagonmade a somewhat incompetent effortto kill the DOD acquisition program,by canceling a multiyear procurementcontract (these are written in a way

that makes cancellation problematic).After that failed, this became a firmprogram again, although its salvationdid not rescue it from the one-per-month doldrums. The years 2000-2007saw just one export sale, a singleplane follow-on for Denmark.

But the past six years have been a remarkable turnaround story. Saleshave included 17 for Canada and four for Norway, followed by most of the Middle East, including Israel, Iraq, Oman, and Qatar. More are in the pipeline, with India planning to

C-130J

A400M

(Continued on page 23)

Composite tanks promisemajor savings


strator. The tank broke the very firsttime it was subjected to external loads.

The failure was not very dramatic,producing no flames, explosions, orbursting. But the damage was real.The X-33 program was cancelled andNASA’s rocket plans were thrown intoyears of disarray. The agency hadbeen counting on the X-33 to pave theway for a space shuttle replacement.

Fast forward 14 years, and NASA isback in the composite tank business,ground testing versions specificallydesigned to avoid the X-33 pitfalls.NASA aims to use the new tank for ex-pendable rockets, including the forth-coming Space Launch System to beused for launching astronauts to Marsor to asteroids. Boeing is making thetanks under NASA’s Game ChangingTechnology Initiative, having beaten

Lockheed Martin (the X-33 contractor)and Northrop Grumman for the $24-million contract in 2011.

The work is starting to get interest-ing, with a 2.4-m-diam. version pass-ing pressure tests at Marshall, accord-ing to a preliminary report, and a5.5-m version now in development atBoeing’s Tukwila, Washington, facility.The bigger tank is supposed to provethe feasibility of making an 8.4-mcomposite tank for NASA’s SpaceLaunch System.

Changing the gameLiquid hydrogen propellant is typicallystored inside cryogenic pressure ves-sels that are nearly spherical. In what’sknown as an integral tank design, thepressure vessels are bonded to a sec-tion of the launch vehicle’s outer

ROCKET ENGINEERS HAVE LONG BEENenthralled by the idea of storing liquidhydrogen in cryogenic tanks madefrom graphite composite. These wouldweigh an estimated 40% less than thecryogenic tanks used today, which aremade of aluminum or higher strengthaluminum lithium alloy. Automatedmanufacturing also could make thecomposite tanks 20% less expensivethan metal versions.

The shift to composite cryogenictanks has not happened yet, largelybecause of a composite tank failurethat occurred at NASA Marshall over adecade ago. Late in the afternoon ofNovember 3, 1999, a ragged crack ofbroken graphite fibers appeared alongthe circumference of a hydrogen tankthat was in testing for use on NASA’sX-33 reusable launch vehicle demon-

A robotic arm applies composite laminate to Boeing’s 2.4-m-diam. pressure vessel at Boeing’s Tukwila, Washington, facility. Credit: Boeing.

shell—a cylinder in the case of an ex-pandable rocket.

NASA thinks one of the X-33’s twotanks broke because tiny amounts ofhydrogen gas seeped into the honey-comb core of the tank wall. The wallwas a sandwich composite consistingof a honeycomb core with facesheetsbonded on the outside and inside ofthe core. Gas seeped in through mi-croscopic cracks in the interiorfacesheet and produced “higher thanexpected core pressures” that causedthe core to debond from the outerfacesheet, according to the investiga-tion report.

Boeing has come up with a tankdesign that shifts to an entirely newlamination technique for the pressurevessel and does away with the honey-combs in the core of the cylinder wall.

A 5.5-m tank assembly is sched-uled to arrive at Marshall next April in-side NASA’s Super Guppy plane. Boe-ing and NASA engineers say the tankis big enough to test the design andmanufacturing processes for the largerversion that would be needed for theSpace Launch System.

The first thing the new tank teamdid was to look closely at the historyof the X-33 program, including a May2000 investigative report describingthe failure. The investigators cited notonly technical flaws but also poorcommunications among engineers andmanagers: “A design of this complex-ity requires high levels of communica-tion, both internal and external to theinvolved organizations; such commu-nication did not occur in this case,”the investigators said.

The Boeing-NASA team appears tohave taken that criticism to heart.NASA project manager John Vickerssays “a very close working relation-ship” has been established among en-gineers from Boeing and the Marshall,Glenn, and Langley centers. “We’vegot this small, passionate engineeringteam of government engineers and in-dustry engineers working,” he says.

Job number one was to addressthe permeation of hydrogen out of thepressure vessel. Boeing came up with

a new lamination technique for thevessel wall. An undisclosed number ofthin plies of graphite composite aresurrounded by standard thicknessplies. This hybrid laminate sounds likea small change but is supposed tohave a big effect.

“We’ve incorporated thin compos-ite plies into the laminate to not onlymitigate, but the hope is to eliminate,permeability of the hydrogen from in-side the tank,” says Vickers. “The thinplies are the keys to eliminating thepermeability, and they’re really halfthe thickness of a typical ply material,”he notes. Specifically, each layer is 2.5mm wide, compared to the standard5.5 mm.

What if the engineers are wrongabout the impermeability of the newlaminate? The Boeing-NASA team hadto be sure that the tank’s cylindricalouter wall would not soak up any hy-drogen that might escape, so theyfound a way to eliminate the honey-combs in the core of the outer shell.For the X-33, those honeycombs weresupposed to add strength when sand-wiched between carbon-fiber face-sheets, but they became the pro-

gram’s Achilles’ heel. In the new de-sign, “You don’t get a trapped gas,and it’s the trapped gas that con-tributed to X-33 failure,” says mechan-ical engineer Dan Rivera, Boeing’sproject manager.

Instead of honeycombs, the coreof the outer shell will be formed fromhollow tubes called flutes. These runalong the axis of the cylinder fromend to end. “If you do have any sortof permeation from the tank wall, if itgets into the core, those flutes canvery easily exhaust to the air, the am-bient environment,” Rivera explains.

Engineers know they must keepthe voids of any composite sandwichempty and clean. Hydrogen from thetank is one threat, but so is moisture.It can freeze and expand, pulling thetips of the honeycomb away from thefacesheet that forms the surface,weakening the whole sandwich struc-ture. The flutes give engineers a wayto address that problem too.

“The hollow tube provides theability for us to very easily purge andvent the core. That is very challengingin a honeycomb structure. You haveto machine in vent paths and things


A robotic arm applies composite laminate to Boeing’s 5.5-m-diam. composite propellant vessel atBoeing’s Tukwila, Washington, facility. The light at the tip of the arm provides heat to soften theribbon and make it adhere. Credit: Boeing.

version for the SpaceLaunch System.

Instead of laying theribbons by hand, Boe-ing took a commerciallyavailable, robotic manu-facturing arm and de-signed a fiber place-ment head for it. Thehead provides heat tosoften the ribbon andmake it adhere. That’snecessary because Boe-ing procures the rib-bons as “pre-preg,” astiff material pre-im-pregnated with epoxy.

“The angle of thatspiral wrap is key to theperformance andweight savings of thetank, and so you canonly really do that withthis very sophisticatedrobotic, fiber placementcapability,” Vickers says.“It continually goesaround the tank in thisspiral pattern until itcompletely covers thetank, and then it’ll dothat for another layer.”

Not everything isleft to the robots, though. Once thevessel is done, the mandrel must beremoved a section at a time. For a bigvessel like the 5.5-m version, someoneactually climbs in the mandrel anduses a crane and other lifting devicesto remove the mandrel a section at atime. The mandrel is coated with achemical release agent before the rib-bons are applied, so that that theywon’t get stuck on it. “It’s much like awax,” Vickers says.

First of a kindComposite structures need to becured, and doing that for a large struc-ture like the 5.5-m tank posed whatmay be the biggest challenge for theteam. Composite aerospace structuresare typically cured in pressure cham-bers called autoclaves. As far as theBoeing-NASA team knows, there sim-ply is no autoclave large enough to fitan 8.4-m-wide cylinder and pressure


vessel. A structure that size will needto be cured in a giant oven—some-thing that does exist, because it’s eas-ier to produce heat on that scale thanpressure.

“The alternative would be youwould have to go design, build, andpurchase the world’s largest autoclaveto fit an 8.4-m tank,” says Rivera.

The 5.5-m tank must prove thefeasibility of oven curing for such alarge structure. “It’s the first time everfor a tank this large to be cured in anoven as opposed to an autoclave,”Vickers says.

For the material, Boeing chose acommercial resin dubbed 5320, plusIM7 carbon fibers. “The 5320-IM7 hasbeen developed for out of autoclaveoperations,” Rivera explains.

NASA and Boeing conducted nu-merous tests to qualify the material foruse in the 5.5-m tank. The real proofwill come when the tank arrives atMarshall for installation on the teststand that the agency has begun set-ting up to accommodate it. The tankwill be filled with liquid hydrogen andhooked up to a tank farm that addspressure by pumping more liquid hy-drogen into it. Those tests will simu-late the pressures and structural loadsthe tank would experience inside alaunch vehicle.

These tests will be tougher thanthose performed on the 2.4-m tank:“We did not test the 2.4-m with thosestructural loads,” Vickers cautions.“The 5.5-m is really the biggest mile-stone we have for the project.”

Space applications might not be allthat’s at stake in the composite tankprogram. If a giant, composite tankcan be cured without an autoclave,engineers might be able to do thesame with windmill parts or fuel stor-age tanks.

“Composites really are the materi-als of the future, and if we can buildthese structures outside the autoclave,that opens it up to many, many morecompanies” that otherwise could notproduce the parts, “because auto-claves are very large capital invest-ments,” Vickers says.

Ben [email protected]

like that,” Rivera says. “Our core natu-rally provides those vent paths, so wecan keep the air in those flutes verydry,” he says.

An inert gas is run through thecore, he explains.

Cue the robotsNASA and Boeing know that astronger, lighter tank won’t be a gamechanger if no one can afford it. Con-sider the pressure vessel. It requireswrapping ribbons of composite fibermaterial around a mandrel made fromepoxy cured into the shape of the ves-sel. Doing the wrapping by handwould be time consuming and expen-sive, if it were possible at all. Engi-neers have chosen an intricate spiralapplication to maximize the strengthof the vessel and minimize its weight.The job will be especially difficult forthe 5.5-m pressure vessel or the 8.4-m

Boeing's 2.4-m-diam. pressure vessel is bonded inside a compositecylinder that would form a segment of an expendable rocket. The tank assembly is pictured in a clean room in Marshall’s advanced manufacturing facility. Credit: NASA.

Save the Date30 April 2014

Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center

Washington, D.C.

For more information about the Gala, visit www.aiaa.org/gala2014

The2014 Aerospace Spotlight Awards Gala

The AIAA Foundation Board of Trustees invites you to nominate your colleagues, teams, programs, or organization for the highest award presented by the AIAA Foundation to recognize excellence within the aerospace community. The 2014 award will be presented during the AIAA Aerospace Spotlight Awards Gala.

Call for Nominations

Nominees whose current noteworthy accomplishment, unique accomplishments for the duration of a program, or extraordinary lifetime contributions represent “excellence within the aerospace community” and generate “inspiration for the global community” are eligible. The recipient must be able to attend the Aerospace Spotlight Awards Gala to accept the award.

Two easy steps to nominate!

1. Prepare a one-page narrative describing the accomplishment and why the nominee deserves the award.

2. Email the narrative in pdf format, nominator name/contact information, and nominee name/contact information to [email protected].

Nomination Deadline: 1 December 2013

The AIAA Foundation

Award For Excellence

13-83-f

Strong ARM for seizing a space rock


Mars is too far, too expensive. TheMoon was ruled out as a destinationwhen the White House canceled Con-stellation in 2010. Now, with NASA di-rected toward the asteroids, its deepspace plans are being squeezed bothby House antipathy to administrationproposals and the latter’s failure to de-liver promised budget support.

The SLS and Orion vehicles areNASA’s only option for travel beyondLEO, but if the White House accepts abudget hovering near $16 billion forits remaining three years, both boosterand spacecraft may go on the chop-ping block. The situation is eerily sim-ilar to that described by the AugustineCommittee in 2009, when Constella-tion’s lunar goal was dismissed as un-affordable. Now the president’s own2025 asteroid goal seems to be out-stripping the resources available. De-lays to 2030 or beyond seem likely.

What, then, could NASA do for thenext 17 years? Circumlunar and La-grange point missions would exerciseOrion and SLS but deliver little in theway of scientific or commercial payoff.Spending 17 years ‘getting ready’ to gosomeplace meaningful is a sure way toensure one will go nowhere at all. Acash-strapped Congress or a presidentbeset by more pressing prioritiescould cancel SLS and Orion altogether.Even a looming Chinese lunar landingmay not be enough to revive NASA’sfortunes. When in the late 2020s theISS is retired, U.S. human spaceflightcould well be decommissioned, too.

Something differentConfronting those barren prospects,NASA proposed in April the asteroidinitiative, a broad effort pairing in-creased planetary defense activity withthe ambitious ARM. In the latter mis-sion, a robot spacecraft boosted by asingle Atlas V launch would spiral out-ward under solar electric propulsion(SEP) from LEO, heading for a small

NASA bars any spending on an aster-oid capture mission. Back in July thechairman of the House Committee onScience, Space and Technology, Rep.Lamar Smith (R-Texas), argued that anasteroid mission would do little to ad-vance science or planetary defense,and that it would not develop a lander,habitat, or other technologies neces-sary for long-duration missions intodeep space. Committee membersmuch preferred that NASA focus againon returning humans to the Moon. Thebest the Senate could manage was alegislative ‘no comment.’

Because the continuing resolutionexpected to fund NASA through FY14will likely say nothing about the ARM,NASA will keep studying the conceptinternally while readying it for nextyear’s budget proposal. The agencywill further develop the mission’s tech-nical approach and try to prepare acompelling, attractive sales pitch toCongress. At stake are U.S. prospectsfor getting astronauts into deep spacein the coming decade, or for decadesto come.

BILL GERSTENMAIER, THE TOP MAN-ager of NASA’s Human Explorationand Operations Mission Directorate, isa master of the concise, technical lan-guage of engineering. Yet at AIAA’sSpace 2013 conference in September,the veteran space operator roused hisaudience with an uncharacteristic peptalk: “Turn off your logical side andturn on your touchy-feely side, theone you almost never use,” he said.“Then jump up and down and dosome break-dancing. We’re going tograb a space rock and we’re going tomove it!”

Steve Stich, deputy director of en-gineering at NASA Johnson, was simi-larly fired up at breaking new explora-tion ground with the Asteroid RedirectMission (ARM): “This is a bold mis-sion,” he said. “We are talking aboutsending two crew farther than we’veever been in space.”

Capturing Congress The ARM, first announced in April, isperhaps too bold for Congress. TheHouse’s proposed FY14 budget for

The ARM capture mechanism must cope with target asteroids of up to 1,000 tons, spinning at up to twicea minute, with a long dimension of up to 14 m. Even small asteroids might retain a significant dustlayer, or consist of a rubble pile of small fragments held together only by molecular Van der Waals forces.Credit: NASA.


near-Earth asteroid (NEA) in an Earth-like orbit around the Sun.

After matching orbits and spinrates, the asteroid redirect vehicle, orARV, would position the open mouthof a fabric capture bag over an aster-oid measuring 7 or 8 m across with amass of up to 1,000 tons. Securing theasteroid, the ARV would despin itsprize and begin thrusting toward theEarth-Moon system.

The 40-kW, xenon-fueled SEP sys-tem would nudge the asteroid’s orbitjust enough so that lunar gravitywould capture the object into a dis-tant, retrograde orbit of the Moon.There, Orion astronauts on a 3- to 4-week mission would dock with the ro-botic craft, gather an array of asteroidsamples totaling a few tens of kilo-grams, and return them to Earth foranalysis. The robotic vehicle wouldthen maintain the asteroid’s orbit andattitude for future astronaut follow-upor robotic exploitation by internationaland commercial partners.

The optimum target asteroid forcapture is a low-albedo (dark) objectwith a C-type spectral classification,analogous to carbonaceous chondritemeteorites. These meteorites are black,low-density, organic-rich rocks littlealtered since their formation nearly 4.6billion years ago. Some carbonaceouschondrites, like the Tagish Lake mete-orite recovered after it fell in Canadain 2000, are as fragile as a charcoal bri-quette and contain as much as 20%water. Because of their fragility andsusceptibility to rapid weathering, mostof these asteroids break up on atmo-spheric entry, and few fragments sur-vive on the surface long enough to becollected.

Water-rich, C-type asteroids are at-tractive targets, but they are difficult tofind and characterize. Their low reflec-tivity means a 10-m asteroid is visiblefor only a few days near its Earth ap-proach. After a detection, astronomersmust quickly nail down the object’sorbit through multiple observations,juggling precious telescope time to getthe infrared spectra needed to confirmits composition. If the object is within

range, radar from Arecibo or Gold-stone can confirm its orbit, shape, andspin. Within two or three days of dis-covery, the potential target vanishes,unseen until its orbit carries it close toEarth again, as many as 10 years later.

To enable ARM launch opportuni-ties before 2020, NASA’s first priorityshould be detection and characteriza-tion. In September, JPL asteroid dy-namicist Paul Chodas said that three of14 catalogued small asteroids had or-bits favorable for robotic retrieval (re-quiring less than 2.5 km/sec of delta-V from the SEP system). WithNASA-funded upgrades, ground-basedobserving programs could sift anotherfive targets annually from the roughly10,000 potential ARM candidates.

The best candidates will have C-type composition, a spin rate of lessthan 2 rpm, a mass under 1,000 tons,and a diameter smaller than 14 m inthe long dimension. The search will betedious and hard, but ground-basedtelescope time is relatively cheap. IfNASA gets its $20 million in aug-mented search funding, it should dis-cover 15-20 asteroid targets by 2018.

Brand new bagRecent NASA studies show that severalcandidate capture mechanisms cancope with the challenges of corrallinga small NEA. JPL has proposed a fabricbag held open by inflatable struts.With spin rates matched and the bag

flown slowly over the asteroid, a clus-ter of ‘Mars rover’-style airbags wouldinflate, stabilizing and gripping the as-teroid inside. By triggering the inflationprecisely, the craft can remove any mi-nor axis rotations (tumbling). Retract-ing cables then close the bag aroundthe asteroid, nestling it against the ve-hicle. Reaction control jets can thendespin the spacecraft/asteroid stack.

An alternative capture design envi-sions a spidery set of lightweight armsholding open a wide-mouthed mem-brane; the arms fold inward to graspthe asteroid. Other despinning tech-niques under investigation include us-ing the spacecraft’s ion thruster plumeto slow the asteroid’s rotation, or lin-

The ARM mission would end with two Orion astronauts exploring the captured asteroid on several EVAsover the course of a week. The crew would conduct extensive sampling and emplace long-lived scienceand resource prospecting instruments. Credit: NASA.

The first Orion crew visit to the asteroid wouldbe followed by robotic prospecting or sciencecraft from commercial or international partners.Subsequent crew visits might follow if resourceextraction techniques can benefit from astronautassistance. Credit: NASA.


rial nearly unchanged since the forma-tion of the solar system, including in-terstellar dust granules that predatethe solar nebula. Using handheld cor-ing instruments, the crew will pene-trate a few tens of centimeters into theasteroid and retrieve pristine samplesof its interior.

By emplacing long-lived scienceinstruments on the NEA, the crew willgather important planetary defense in-formation, too. Asteroids this small arenot a threat to Earth, but do representthe building blocks of larger, hazard-ous rubble-pile asteroids. We shouldbe able to sound the asteroid’s interiorstructure, measure its thermal profilewith depth, examine its optical prop-erties to refine remote sensing meth-ods, and assess the object’s cohesion,porosity, and mechanical strength.

The mission’s greatest potential isopening a new era of space explo-ration: using space-generated raw ma-terials to supplant expensive propel-lants and consumables hauled fromEarth. Investigators should feed someof the returned samples into proces-sors at the ISS, working out practicalmethods to extract water, volatile ele-ments, and valuable metals in a free-fall environment. NASA should alsoassess using the bulk mass of the as-teroid as ready-made shielding against

Without an improved budget picture,the ARM is the only way U.S. astro-nauts can reach an asteroid surface bythe mid-2020s. However, the missionis not just about meeting some techni-cal or political deadline. An asteroidencounter in lunar orbit would havereal importance for conducting futureexpeditions to distant asteroids, theMoon’s surface, and the Mars system.

In the near term, the ARM wouldput U.S. explorers beyond the Moonabout 10 years from now, with astro-nauts traveling well beyond Earth’sprotective magnetosphere, surpassingall Apollo benchmarks. The missionwould be an affordable way to wringthe kinks out of SLS and Orion sys-tems, building deep-space operationsexperience for ground teams and as-tronaut field explorers.

The mission will not have a revo-lutionary impact on planetary sci-ence—a pair of asteroid sampling mis-sions, Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx,may have succeeded in returning afew grams each from C-type NEAs bythe early 2020s. But it will enabletrained scientist-astronauts to returntens of kilograms of samples from anintriguing, previously unexplored classof small asteroids.

They are made of exotic stuff. Car-bonaceous chondrites preserve mate-

ing the capture bag with flexible bris-tles that apply passive retarding forceacross the asteroid’s surface.

NASA is confident that ground-based simulations and mechanicaltesting can yield a capable, robustcapture design, able to handle asteroidmasses of up to 1,000 tons. More con-cepts could emerge at NASA’s AsteroidInitiative Idea Synthesis Workshop,which was delayed by the partial gov-ernment shutdown.

With the asteroid nestled safely inthe capture enclosure, the redirect ve-hicle would begin the multiyearprocess of nudging the orbit toward aclose encounter with the Moon. Oncethe asteroid is captured by lunar grav-ity, several months of SEP thrustingshould suffice to park it in a very sta-ble, distant retrograde orbit around theMoon. There is no chance of Earth im-pact from there, even without an ac-tive shepherding spacecraft: It wouldtake more than a century for the aster-oid to slam harmlessly into the lunarsurface. Earth’s atmosphere providesanother layer of safety, as asteroidssmaller than about 30 m in diameterbreak up and incinerate upon entry.

The capture in contextThe deep-space experience and hard-ware needed for visiting a large NEAon a voyage of six months or more, asthe president envisioned in 2010, areunlikely to be available before 2030.

A solar-electric propulsionthruster in development atJPL uses xenon ions as the reaction mass. This image wastaken through a porthole in a JPL vacuum chamber wherethe ion engine is being tested.An earlier version of this engine has been flying onNASA’s Dawn mission, nowheaded for Asteroid 1 Ceres.The xenon plume from suchthrusters might be used to retard the spin of a target asteroid before it is seized by the capture vehicle. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

This fragment of the Tagish Lake meteorite,recovered after its fall in Canada in 2000,contains a variety of exotic amino acidswhose formation was influenced by waterpercolating in the parent asteroid. Credit: Michael Holly, Creative Services, University of Alberta.


solar storms and galactic cosmic rays. In the decade following an initial

astronaut visit, NASA should partnerwith other space agencies and com-mercial firms in using the capturedNEA as a testbed for mining and ex-traction technologies. By putting 500tons of water-rich rock just outside thegravity wells of the Earth and Moon,the ARM may represent the first stepon a long road to in-space propellantproduction, eliminating the need toship cryogenic propellants from Earth.

Many advances must follow up theinitial ARM: gathering asteroidal rocks,gravel, and dust in free fall; preparingthem for processing; extracting waterand separating it from organic materialand other noxious volatiles; and fi-nally, storing hydrogen and oxygen ina conveniently located free-fall facility.NASA, though, can take that most im-portant first step—making raw space

‘stuff’ available to inventive users.Commercial innovators may then findways to use in-space propellants, flu-ids, and industrial materials to addressthe logistical demands of industry andexploration.

The goal of the Asteroid RedirectMission is not just putting a couple ofastronauts in physical contact with athousand-ton asteroid. It is instead tobe the first in a series of incrementalhuman spaceflight milestones aimedat reaching the Moon, more distant as-teroids, and Mars. As budgets and ex-perience permit, the ARM could befollowed by visits to the Sun-Earth La-grange points, then multimonth aster-oid expeditions, or sorties down to thelunar surface. These options will de-pend upon the readiness of heavy-liftlaunch, reliable life support, and deep-space-qualified habitats.

The ARM provides a near-term as-

tronaut target in deep space, beyondthe Moon, within the coming decade.Even its critics recognize that undercurrent policy and budgets, NASAlacks practical, affordable alternatives.This nontraditional yet promising mis-sion may recapture for NASA and thenation some of the excitement missingin our recent space efforts.

ARM will be tough to sell, tougherto execute. NASA must answer crucialquestions like those raised in July byveteran JPL engineer Gentry Lee: “Canwe make it work? Can we make it use-ful?” If so, NASA will advance our sci-entific knowledge of asteroids, im-prove our planetary defense skills,and unlock a promising combinationof human exploration, commercial in-novation, and unlimited resourcesfrom space. Thomas D. Jones

[email protected]


NASA GLENN’S SUCCESSFUL HOT-FIREtesting of an injector assembly de-signed and made by Aerojet Rocket-dyne may well prove to be a signifi-cant milestone in the development ofrocket engine manufacturing. In creat-ing the assembly, the company hadused an innovative 3D additive manu-facturing technique.

The test demonstrated that one ofthe most critical and expensive com-ponents of a rocket engine could bebuilt to the required standard muchmore quickly, simply, and cheaplywith the additive manufacturing tech-nique than with traditional methods.

By using selective laser meltingand 3D fusing of a metallic-powderbed (in an inert gas environment tominimize the potential for oxidation ofthe powder), Aerojet Rocketdyne wasable to manufacture two separate sub-assemblies. When joined, these struc-tures created the entire center-coresection of a full-scale injector thatwould represent a liquid oxygen-hy-drogen RL10 engine.

Reducing complexityWith most conventional manufactur-ing techniques, the company wouldhave to make more than 100 parts andthen turn them into a finished injectorusing a combination of forging, plat-ing, brazing, welding, and five-axismilling. Hundreds of holes and portswould have to be machined into theinjector assembly to ensure that itwould function as designed.

Tyler Hickman, NASA Glenn’s hot-fire task lead for the Manufacturing In-novation Project (MIP), says a varietyof “complicated flow passages” insidethe RL10 injector “make it difficult tomachine conventionally.”

In a sizable rocket engine, the in-jector assembly usually is among themost expensive components, becauseits manufacture is extremely time- andlabor-intensive. However, 3D additive

manufacturing took no more than sixdays each for the test injector’s twoparts, says Jeff Haynes, Aerojet Rock-etdyne’s additive manufacturing pro-gram manager. The company paid forthe manufacturing project entirelywith internal funding.

Although each part required somepostprocessing and heat treatment(both parts were treated at the sametime), the finished injector core wasavailable no more than eight weeksafter manufacture began. Fabricatingthe injector core conventionally wouldhave taken a year or more, saysHaynes. For some parts of the injector,such as closed-die forgings, it would

normally take six months of manufac-turing lead time before they could beincorporated into a subassembly.

“We struggle to quantify the sup-port cost” of labor and all the otherfactors implicit in a six-month leadtime, says Haynes. “But if we can printa part in six days, we don’t have thatsupport cost.”

That is one reason why AerojetRocketdyne selected the RL10 injectorfor its first major experiment, aimed atdetermining if additive manufacturingcould cut the time and cost involvedin rocket engine production.

In service for more than 50 years,the RL10 is one of the most widelyused upper-stage engines in the his-tory of space propulsion. It has helpedplace many military, government, andcommercial satellites into orbit, andhas powered space probe missions tonearly every planet in the solar sys-tem. RL10 missions included Juno toexplore Jupiter; New Horizons, nowen route to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt;the Solar Dynamic Observatory; Radia-tion Belt storm probes; and the LunarReconnaissance Orbiter.

More than 435 RL10 engines haveflown in space. Today the engine con-tinues as a reliable workhorse in theform of the RL10A-4-2, delivering22,300 lb of thrust to power the upperstage of the Atlas V rocket; and theRL10B-2, with 24,750 lb of thrust pow-ering the upper stage of the Delta IV.

The company sees the RL10 “as agood pull for this [additive manufac-turing] technology and probably oneof the lead programs to pull it in.” Ifthe experimental RL10-equivalent in-jector core’s success is replicated insimilar cost savings in future tests,then Aerojet could eventually use ad-ditive manufacturing routinely to fab-ricate complex RL10 assemblies.

The RL10-like injector center coretested by NASA used full-scale RL10features “as a baseline,” says Haynes.

The new meaning of additive value

Green Engineering

Task lead Tyler Hickman, in red shirt, and technicians inspect the additively manufacturedrocket injector assembly as it is installed in theRocket Combustion Laboratory at NASA Glenn.Courtesy NASA.


However, the 3D manufacturing ma-chine for which Aerojet Rocketdynedesigned the part could produce partsmeasuring up to just 10 in. in any di-mension. Since the production RL10injector is 12 in. in maximum dimen-sion, “we truncated” the design of the3D part so it could be containedwithin a 10-in. cube, he says. How-ever, its design faithfully replicated theLOx post features of the RL10 injector.

In an RL10 engine, notes Haynes,“there is a very complex series of partsthat bring the fluids together effi-ciently.” If the injector is not manufac-tured or assembled to the sufficientstandard, mixing of the fluids can cre-ate “very bad instability” when theyare ignited in the combustor. The size,shape, and density of the spray coneof LOx released into the combustorare particularly important.

Testing at GlennBefore the full injector center-core as-sembly was sent to Glenn for testing

(which NASA paid for under a nonre-imbursable Space Act agreement aspart of its MIP), the AFRL at EdwardsAFB provided Aerojet Rocketdynewith pretest data on the LOx-spraypattern of the test RL10 injector. AFRLtested the LOx injector from the addi-tively manufactured injector core in itshigh-pressure cold flow test facility,which is able to generate much higherfluid flow pressures than the com-pany’s own facilities, according toHaynes.

Reviewing the AFRL data gave thecompany “a lot of confidence” that theLOx spray from the specially made in-jector would be “within the variability”needed to perform like a productionRL10 in NASA Glenn’s hot-fire testing,according to Haynes.

AFRL’s offer to participate pro-vided an “excellent” opportunity forAerojet Rocketdyne and NASA to ex-tend the government-industry partner-ship and the cost-sharing collaborationassociated with the tests. Carol Tol-

bert, project manager for the MIP atGlenn, says AFRL funded the coldflow pretesting of the LOx injector,maximizing the benefit of the fundsthat Aerojet Rocketdyne and NASAhad made available for their parts ofthe effort. (NASA Langley and NASAMarshall are also involved in the MIP,each with its own research projects.)

Hickman coordinated the test ac-tivities at Glenn and led the designteam that produced the supportinghardware for the injector test. He saysGlenn first performed a series of cold-flow tests using nonreacting fluids tocharacterize the pressure drop in thesystem, refine the abort limits, andperfect the valve timing for the first ig-nition attempt.

Valuable dataAlthough the injector Glenn testedwas not quite a full-size RL10 injector,Hickman says the hot-fire test dataNASA obtained was significant. Theexercise demonstrated that the addi-

A liquid oxygen/gaseous hydrogen rocket injector assembly built by Aerojet Rocketdyne using additive manufacturing technology is hot-fire tested at NASA Glenn’sRocket Combustion Laboratory in Cleveland, Ohio. Courtesy NASA.

tively manufactured assem-bly was able to withstandintense cold (in the form of LOx); intense heat fromcombustion in the cham-ber, just downstream of theinjector; and high pres-sures, since the pressure ofthe thrust chamber wassignificantly higher thanthe pressure of the exter-nal environment.

The test data will helpNASA and Aerojet Rocket-dyne to scale additivemanufacturing and testingof components to a largerengine. Indeed, bothgroups are already lookingahead to more tests. TheRL10 injector-core test was“the first of many hot-firetests” NASA is planning“for infusing this technol-ogy,” says Hickman.

The organizations con-tinue to look at other engine parts thatmight benefit from additive manufac-turing. “It may not be the whole en-gine, but it could be some of the mostexpensive parts,” says Tolbert.

Other possibilitiesNASA and Aerojet Rocketdyne havealready tested two components of theJ-2X engine for the Earth departurestage of NASA’s planned SpaceLaunch System: a workhorse gas gen-erator duct in a rig test, and a fuelmaintenance port cover in a full en-gine test. Neither has the complexityof an injector, but both tests providedexposure to combustion environ-ments. Tolbert says NASA is also look-ing at how—in the longer term—astro-nauts might additively manufacturecomponents and equipment in space,or on the surface of Mars.

Haynes notes powder-bed meltingwould not be a suitable additive man-ufacturing technique for space, be-cause “zero g would wreak havoc onthe powder.” Laser melting of metalpowder beds may also be a challeng-ing technique for very large engineparts: A machine capable of making apart eight times the volume of a 10-in.cube would have to manipulate more

ponent the size of a 15-in. cube, thiscould “potentially support [productionof] an entire injector.”

Future outlookHaynes and Hickman believe that rou-tine production of small, simple rocketengine parts such as brackets and fit-tings might be only a couple of yearsaway. Hickman estimates that the hot-fire test of the RL10 injector assemblytook the technology readiness level(TRL) of additive manufacturing forrocket engine parts from TRL3 to TRL4or even TRL5 (TRL6 represents awholly production-ready technology).

However, routine use of this tech-nology for production of complexrocket engine assemblies is still four orfive years away, in their opinion. Thereason is that although an additivelymanufactured part may appear to beexactly the same as an identical-look-ing part made using traditional meth-ods, it is not the same.

“We’re treating [additive manufac-turing] as a new product,” Haynes says.“We’re having to define that and getthe data we need” to show adequatemanufacturing repeatability, to defineand maintain the range of acceptablevariability among parts, and to dis-cover the limits of the process.

Theoretically, a component manu-factured additively using powder-metal melting and deposition shoulddemonstrate more repeatability andless variability in its properties than apart made by working sheet metal.First, however, manufacturers such asAerojet Rocketdyne must do a lot ofdesign, manufacturing, and testingwork to demonstrate that this is in-deed the case. This requires develop-ment of new design data that takes thenew manufacturing method into ac-count. That in turn means creating anew design and product definitionprocess.

“We spent over a year building anddeveloping design data,” Haynes says.“To print out highly valuable equip-ment such as rocket engines, it is keyto have specific design data for it in or-der to have your customers recognizeit as production-ready technology.”

Chris [email protected]

than a ton of metal powder, a very dif-ficult task. This machine exists today,but it is still being evaluated for thelarger scale capability.

Other additive manufacturing tech-niques might be able to take up theslack. For instance, electron beamfreeform fabrication (EBF3) uses awire feed rather than powder. A po-tential disadvantage is that to be effec-tive, the electron beams that melt themetal need a vacuum in order to op-erate. For in-space applications, how-ever, EBF3 is ideal.

Additive manufacturing potentiallycould be used to ‘print’ an entire in-space thruster that is small, pressure-fed, and has no turbomachinery, ac-cording to Haynes. He says that theapproach would be particularly suit-able for rocket engine parts that re-quire no postprocessing.

Haynes says such techniqueswould not be applicable to buildingan entire large engine like the spaceshuttle main engine, which would be“too big and complex.” They could,however, be used to manufacturecomplex subassemblies quickly andcheaply. Now that a powder-bed addi-tive manufacturing machine is avail-able that can 3D manufacture a com-


Green Engineering

A production RL10 engine awaits testing. Courtesy: Aerojet Rocketdyne.

program win. Originally, this called for145 planes, but that number was laterreduced to 38. However, the FY13budget killed the entire program. A to-tal of 21 planes were ordered, with 13delivered. The eight remaining ordershave been canceled, and the 13 deliv-ered planes will be sold. In the mean-time, Alenia has only one outstandingorder, 10 planes for Australia. Thesewill be delivered in 2015.

Clearly, the low end of the mili-tary lift market is good for only about15-25 planes a year at best. Mindful ofthis, the latest market entrant, Em-braer, has decided to aim at a slightlyhigher segment, closer to the C-130J.The company’s KC-390, a twin turbo-fan transport design that can alsoserve as a tanker, complicates life forboth Lockheed Martin and the twobottom segment players. Embraer hasproposed selling it for about $50 mil-lion, which makes it a rather goodvalue given its expected range andpayload.

Whether Embraer can deliver atthat price remains an open question,but the company has scored letters ofinterest from industrial partner coun-tries (Chile, the Czech Republic, Portu-gal, and others), and from France (asan offset, if Brazil buys the Rafalefighter). The first KC-390 prototypewill be delivered in late 2014, fol-lowed by a first flight. The airplane isscheduled to enter service in Brazil’sair force in 2016.

Whether the KC-390 succeeds as anew entrant or not, its potential is lim-ited by the market itself. The totalmarket for all military airlifters overthe past 10 years was $54.8 billion.The market’s recent history showsscant evidence of growth, and weproject deliveries to stay at about thesame level.

In all, this market is best viewed asa zero-sum game. The A400M willmerely take up the dying C-17’s mar-ket position. The bottom half contin-ues to suffer from overcapacity. Andmilitaries will continue to be hobbledby relatively inadequate air mobility.

Richard AboulafiaTeal Group

[email protected]

heed Martin executives stated thatthey were working toward a five-year(FY14-FY18) deal that would cover 79C-130Js for the Pentagon in a newmultiyear procurement contract.

Overcapacity at the low endUnfortunately, compared with the C-130J’s prospects, a look at the bottomsegment of the market shows much lesssuccess. For the past 10 years or so,Alenia Finmeccanica’s C-27J has gonehead-to-head with Airbus Military’s C-235/-295 series. While the Airbus prod-uct has had its ups and downs, it hasseen about 120 sales. By contrast, theC-27J has seen just half as many.

Alenia’s big break came with theArmy/Air Force Joint Cargo Aircraft

buy another six,and the UAE stillnegotiating for upto 12. Israel is alsoplacing a follow-on.Best of all are thelikely orders fromSaudi Arabia, asmentioned above.Outside the MiddleEast, South Korea’srecent buy also will lead to highernumbers.

Better still, the Pentagon suddenlyrealized it has an aging C-130 problem,with no possible replacement and withuncertain upgrade plans. The HC/MC-130 recapitalization effort put some se-rious numbers behind a revitalizedprocurement program. Another 16planes were added via the AC-130 re-capitalization. The Marine Corps con-tinues to buy KC-130J tankers as well.

It is likely that the C-130 can counton home market orders for at least 12-16 planes per year, more than enoughto guarantee the production line andkeep unit costs reasonable while thecompany continues selling copiesabroad. In fact, in September Lock-

$8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0'22'21'20'19'18'17'16'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03

MILITARY TRANSPORT DELIVERIES BY VALUE(Value in 2013 $billions)

OTHERKC-390A400MC-130JC-17

C-27J


(Continued from page 11)

ago by NASA’s Mars Exploration Rover pro-gram. “It’s remarkable that from a roboticrover design standpoint China wants to du-plicate, with a lookalike on the Moon, whatSpirit and Opportunity did on Mars,” noteshistorian and author Andrew Chaikin.

Designated Chang’e 3, the mission’s po-tential science return is already being ques-tioned, at least outside of China. “Except fora ground-penetrating radar on the rover,none of many science instruments on thelander/rover are expected to discover muchnew on the Moon,” says a U.S. lunar scientistwho worked on Apollo and other lunar pro-grams but is not authorized to speak on therecord about the Chinese space program.

“The Chinese are carrying instrumentsthat are a lot like instruments flown on theSoviet Luna and the U.S. Surveyor lander

by Craig CovaultContributing writer

24 AEROSPACE AMERICA/NOVEMBER 2013 Copyright ©2013 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Astronauts Buzz Aldrin of Apollo11 and Eugene Cernan of Apollo17 tell Aerospace America that en-gineering details emerging from

China’s first robotic Moon lander suggest it isa formal precursor to a manned lunar mod-ule that would carry Chinese astronauts tothe surface of the Moon around 2030. Intheir view, the time may be right for NASAto begin direct cooperation with China onthe return of humans—both Chinese andAmerican—to the Moon as a prelude to inter-national manned missions to Mars.

The 308-lb Chinese rover, seen in im-ages circulated online, appears to be in-spired by U.S. work on another celestialbody: Mars. The rover sitting atop the lan-der has major components that look identi-cal to those developed and flown a decade

China’sbold lunar plan


program,” he says. “I do not think they aregoing to find anything beyond what bothU.S. and Soviet scientists already knew 45years ago, even before Apollo 11.”

Succeed or fail, the Chinese Communistparty appears determined to reap the samekind of public adulation that accompaniedthe NASA Spirit and Opportunity rovers thatlanded on Mars in 2004. The government hasbegun a public contest to name the rover justas NASA did for all four U.S. Mars roverslaunched since 1997. And the Chinese gov-ernment has begun speaking in lofty termsabout the project. Zhao Xiaojin, director ofaerospace for the China Aerospace Scienceand Technology Corp., describes the rover as“a high altitude patrolman carrying thedreams of Asia.”

The lander/rover combination is sched-

Information from previously

secret photos and documents

reveals intriguing details

about Chang’e 3, the new

Chinese robotic lunar lander.

Experts in China and the U.S.

say the craft is a precursor to

a scaled-up vehicle designed

to carry human crews to the

Moon. Other countries will be

joining what has turned into

a surge in lunar space plans.

But if nothing changes, the

U.S. will be contributing very

little; a fact that two luminaries

of the American lunar program

suggest NASA should change.


tremely difficult mission that carries greatrisk,” Ma said in Beijing.

“The Chinese robotic lander is muchlarger than what is needed for the smallrover being carried,” notes Cernan, whocommanded the Apollo 17 lunar module inDecember 1972 and was the final Apolloastronaut to leave footprints on the Moon.“It is obvious this thing is a genuine precur-sor to a Chinese manned version with ascaled-up descent stage,” he says.

The Chinese robotic flights are part ofa multinational lunar mission surge with asmany as a dozen robotic Moon missions,mostly landers, planned for launch byChina, Russia, and India by 2020.

JOINING THE SURGE?There may be a couple of fragile U.S. com-mercial landers in the mix as well. Butwhile the Chinese and Russians are carryingout landings and surface operations, theonly U.S. contributions will be the rich sci-ence data that continues to flow from the$500-million, 4,000-lb Lunar Reconnais-sance Orbiter. Launched in 2009, it is oneof NASA’s most productive science and ex-ploration spacecraft.

Russia, however, is also working to re-build its once highly successful Soviet lunarrobotic capability by planning as many asfive lunar missions, four of them landers,between 2015 and 2020. How many will ac-tually fly by 2020 is still being determined.All of the landers would aim at the Moon’ssouth pole to plumb for volatiles like waterand other ices, possibly returning cryogeni-cally preserved samples to Earth.

What Aldrin would like to see developout of the lunar interest spawned byChina’s program is a U.S. role in establish-ing a manned lunar capability at the L1 andL2 Lagrangian points near the Moon. Thoselocations would help the U.S. build a baseefficiently at the resource-rich lunar southpole as a development facility for in-situ re-source utilization to make Mars habitationviable in the future.

The U.S. will have scant participation inthe lunar surge, although, ironically, it wasNASA Ames’ LADEE (Lunar Atmosphere andDust Environment Explorer) that initiated it.LADEE was launched from the WallopsFlight Center in Virginia on a Minotaur onSeptember 6. Weighing 844 lb, the spacecraftnow orbits the Moon in a retrograde trajec-tory, flying east to west at an altitude of only31 mi. LADEE is only the seventh NASA ro-botic lunar orbit mission since Apollo 17.

uled for liftoff from the Xichang launch siteDecember 1 on a Long March 3B, China’smost powerful rocket. The unmannedChang’e 3 is then to land on the Moon us-ing a large descent stage with a powerfulnew throttling rocket engine—just as sixNASA/Grumman lunar modules began do-ing nearly 45 years ago when they carried12 U.S. astronauts to the lunar surface. Nowit’s China’s turn.

“Seeing the Chinese lander and roverreveals major breakthroughs in Chinesespace engineering,” says Aldrin, “and alsoin what the U.S. knows about the Chineselunar program.” Aldrin copiloted the lunarmodule Eagle with the late Neil Armstrongon July 20, 1969, during the first mannedlanding on the Moon.

“This unmanned lander is specificallydesigned to be scaled up for addition of anascent stage and crew cabin,” Aldrin tellsAerospace America.

Ma Xingrui, head of China’s space ex-ploration body and chief commander of thelunar program, has hinted cryptically at fu-ture applications. “The Chang’e 3 missionmakes use of a plethora of innovative tech-nologies, ‘secret weapons.’ It is an ex-

The Nuclear-powered ChinaChang’e 3 Moon lander descentstage carrying the piggyback solar array-powered rover is lowered into Beijing vacuumchamber. The Chinese rover appears to copy many NASA Marsrover features and instruments. Credit: China Space News/NASASpaceflight.com/Planetary Society.

The underside of the lander has a nozzle for a large, new throttleable rocket engine andlanding gear similar to Apollolunar modules. The Chinese lander scales to about 40% ofan Apollo descent stage and appears to be a formal prototypefor eventual scale-up to a mannedconfiguration. Credit: China SpaceNews/NASASpaceflight.com/Planetary Society.

“The Chang’e 3 details tell me that the U.S. now absolutely must start communicating with the Chinese

about lunar cooperation,” says Aldrin.


LADEE is designed to capture and ana-lyze lunar dust to determine if rays of lightseen by orbiting Apollo astronauts abovethe Moon’s horizon at lunar twilight werecaused by a glow from sodium atoms orsuspended dust.

India, too, plans to launch a lunar roversometime during the same period, as partof its own space race with China. India hadearlier teamed with Russia on an orbiter/rover plan that Russia scrapped after theloss of its Mars Phobos mission.

THE SECRET IS OUTDirect proof of China’s ambitious lunar sur-face program comes in the form of previ-ously secret images sent out of China viathe Internet.

The images, of the Chang’e 3 landerand rover, first appeared in the restrictedChinese government print publicationChina Space News. A Chinese web user inHong Kong identified only as ‘Galactic Pen-guin’ then sent the pictures to a Chinesespace thread on NASAspaceflight.com.From there they were picked up by Plane-tary Society blogger Emily Lakdawalla inPasadena, California.

Back when the U.S. was pioneering hu-man lunar exploration, Aldrin and Cernanspent thousands of hours at what was thenthe Grumman facility in Bethpage, N.Y., un-derstanding the design of the Apollo lunarmodules, and at the Manned SpacecraftCenter in Houston, where their compo-nents were tested and crews were trained.

They’re sure they know what goes intobuilding a lunar module—and they see onein the Chang’e 3 hardware and supportingdocuments.

“The Chang’e 3 details tell me that theU.S. now absolutely must start communicat-ing with the Chinese about lunar coopera-tion,” says Aldrin. “The U.S. knows moreabout the Moon thananyone else, and weknow more about bring-ing together foreignpartners, as we did forthe International SpaceStation,” he adds.

“With all this experi-ence, why aren’t we theones to form somethinglike a ‘manned interna-tional lunar outpost au-thority,’ where countriescan begin to coordinateand demonstrate on the Moon operationsneeded on Mars, rather than doing it on anasteroid?” asks Aldrin.

“We are going to need cooperation forany mission to Mars, and lunar cooperationwith China is a nice thought,” says Cernan,“but we have nothing to deal with, we haveno bargaining chips.” Aldrin, however, be-lieves the United States and its partnerswould have leverage if they invited China toparticipate in the ISS program.

The U.S. has rejected Chinese stationovertures for more than a decade, becauseall of China’s manned space operations are

Technicians show the overall scaleof the Chinese lander and theboxy design similar to the Apollolunar module. But unlike Apollo,the plutonium 238 RTG-poweredChinese lander is to survive for an Earth year and carries scienceinstruments including a drill andtelescope. Rover is designed todrive up to 6 mi. during threeEarth months of operation.Credit: China Space News/NASASpaceflight.com/PlanetarySociety.

A technician inspects the areaaround thrusters covered in protective red covers. Credit: China Space News/NASASpaceflight.com/Planetary Society.


will be launch vehicle development. LiangXiaohong, the deputy director and Commu-nist Party chief of China’s Academy ofLaunch Vehicle Technology, said early thisyear that China is beginning formal devel-opment of a Saturn-V-class Moon rocketwith 11 million lb of liftoff thrust—3.5 mil-lion more than the Apollo Saturn V. It isdesignated the Long March 9.

According to the Chinese, the unfueleddescent stage mass of Chang’e 3 is 2,646 lb,which is 42% of the mass and scale of anunfueled Apollo lunar module descentstage that, according to Grumman docu-ments, weighed 6,100 lb. The launch massof the entire Chinese vehicle will be up to8,377 lb including a propulsion bus.

The development of a boxy-sided de-scent stage in which to package descentrocket engine propellant is under way earlyin the lunar program. This is directly tied topracticing toward creation of a mannedlanding vehicle, Cernan and Aldrin believe.New technologies evident in the lander andin fact necessary for it to survive on the lu-nar surface illustrate a breakout capabilityfor China in several areas. These includethermal control, system integration, electri-cal system design, software, command andcontrol, and propulsion, the two agree.

ROVER REDUX?A notable feature of the Chang’e 3 landerand its piggyback rover, say Cernan andAldrin, is that advanced Chinese technologyis divided between the two. The lander ispacked with it; the six-wheeled, 308-lbrover, by contrast, appears to duplicate thedesign and engineering of NASA JPL’s 400-lbSpirit and Opportunity Mars rovers.

There is solid evidence that the Chi-nese have done just that with the Chang’e3 rover, says Aldrin. But it is something youwould expect them to do, he notes. Marsmission engineers believe the Chinesesaved hundreds or thousands of man-hoursin their lunar rover design and testing byusing U.S. rover designs, and they wonderhow the Chinese got them.

The solar-array-powered rover, like theNASA Mars rovers, has a small extendablearm equipped with an alpha particle X-rayspectrometer, and also an infrared spec-trometer that will be placed atop specificrocks for detailed study. Also like NASA’svehicles, the Chang’e 3 rover has two mast-mounted navigation and two panoramiccameras, along with small engineering cam-eras placed at critical locations.

tightly controlled by the People’sLiberation Army. Also, the votemust be unanimous among theISS partners, and Japan and Rus-sia especially may oppose it.

The lander spacecraft ismore than 40% the size of aNASA Apollo lunar module de-scent stage, and the Chinese arebuilding them on an assemblyline basis. “This thing is huge!”exclaimed Lakdawalla, a plane-tary spacecraft expert, in her ini-tial Chang’e 3 blog when shefirst saw the images.

As many as six Chang’e lan-ders are being designed andbuilt—two landers each with

rovers, and as many as four other landers tocomplete two missions that would eachbring back to Earth 4.6 lb (2 kg) of lunarrock and regolith. According to the Chi-nese, a duplicate lander and rover havebeen built in tandem with Chang’e 3 to actas a backup or fly as Chang’e 4 in 2015.

“The Chinese will be the next on theMoon, and they are going to be there for along time, with significant staying power,”says Cernan. He and Aldrin believe Chinesemanned lunar landings will be possible onlarger versions of the Chang’e 3 designwithin 10 years.

As with U.S. programs, a big challenge

The circular 146-mi.-diam. SinusIridium is the landing zone forthe Chang’e 3. It is easily visiblewith binoculars at the northwestcorner of the Imbrium Basin,the left eye of the ‘Man in theMoon’ viewed from Earth.Credit: Peter Rosén.

The 844-lb $100-million LunarAtmosphere and Dust EnvironmentExplorer (LADEE) is shown intesting before its Septemberlaunch to the Moon to collectand analyze lunar dust from a31-mi. orbit. LADEE is the firstto use a Modular CommonSpacecraft Bus and the firstAmes-designed and developedspacecraft, but it may be the lastNASA spacecraft to visit the Moonuntil the 2020s. Credit: NASA.


The documents say the rover carries:•Two panoramic cameras, two naviga-

tion and engineering camera sets, an arm-mounted alpha particle X-ray spectrometer,plus an infrared spectrometer, the rover en-gineering package, and a data controller.

•Its most significant instrument is itsbelly-mounted ground-penetrating radar,designed to show detailed regolith struc-ture down to 90 ft and basic lunar cruststructures down to several hundred feet.“Unlike the other instruments, the radarcould show ‘very meaningful’ fine scale in-formation on the depth and structure of theregolith, especially around craters,” saidthe U.S. lunar scientist.

The rover will reach the ground afterbeing lowered on a platform that intersectstwo ramps on which it will drive down tothe surface. Its six metal spoke-type wheelsare very similar in design to those used onthe two Soviet Lunokhod rovers.

The Chinese rover is designed to sur-vive at least three months (three lunar daysand nights). It is equipped with solar arraysand, probably, small plutonium 238 ra-dioisotope heater units like those used onSpirit and Opportunity. Although lighterthan these U.S. rovers, it is roughly thesame size. It is also designed to travel up to6 mi. during its mission, under both groundand autonomous control.

The mission will mark the first attemptin 37 years to achieve a robotic lunar land-ing. Chang’e also will be the first robotic lu-nar rover sent to the Moon in 40 years. Thelast one was the Soviets’ Lunokhod 2,launched in 1973; the last lander was theirLuna 24 sample return in 1976.

LANDING AND EXPLORATIONOnce at the Moon the Chang’e 3 will beplaced in a 62-mi. equatorial orbit. Ontouchdown day, the lander, with therover, will separate from the bus anddescend first into a 62x9.6-mi. orbitfrom which the final descent will bemade.

The target landing area is a basalticlava plain in the northwest corner of thegiant Imbrium Basin—the left eye of the‘man in the Moon.’ In the northwest cor-ner of the basin is a 146-mi.-diam. circu-lar bay that extends the Imbrium Marefarther northwest. The lander will be tar-geted to this location, called Sinus Irid-ium, for potential geologic discoveries.

To map the spot, the Chinese haveused the Chang’e 1 and 2 orbiters andprobably data released by NASA fromthe Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, as well.

The lander will hover at 328 ft for up to90 sec while it uses hazard avoidance sen-sors and software to find a boulder-freearea, moving laterally until it does so.

Chang’e 3 will then begin a slow de-scent to 10 ft. There, the large descent en-gine will be shut down and only small atti-tude control thrusters left on through thelanding, according to a translation ofChang’e 3 project charts.

Powering the craft will be solar arraysand a plutonium 238 radioisotope thermo-electric generator (RTG) to provide heatduring month-long lunar nights. The landeris designed to survive at least one Earthyear as a science platform of its own.

Translated Chinese documents say thescience instruments on the lander include:

•An optical ultraviolet telescope to ob-serve binary stars, active galactic nuclei,and short-period variable stars. Some infor-mal UV cooperation will be done by theHawaii-based International Lunar Observa-tory Association, says Steve Durst, itsfounding director.

•A second ultraviolet camera to observethe 30.4-nm band radiation from the Earth’sionosphere to monitor the effect of spaceweather and solar activity on Earth’s geo-magnetic field. China says that meansChang’e 3, if successful, will be the first ob-servatory on the Moon, although Apollo 16carried a UV camera.

•A descent camera to watch the landingfrom the viewpoint of the rover, threepanoramic cameras, an extendable lunar re-golith probe or drill, and a lander engineer-ing package.

Astronauts John Young and CharlesDuke deployed the Far UltravioletCamera/Spectrograph, foreground,on the lunar surface duringApollo 16 in April 1972.


Increasingly turbulent weather events and theirimpact on aviation—especially airlines and airports—aresubjects now being taken very seriously by North Ameri-can and European aviation research organizations, infra-structure providers, and governments.

Brussels-based air traffic management agency Euro-control, in its fourth Challenges of Growth study, lookedat some of the emerging trends that it expects will impactcivil aviation in Europe over the next 20 years. Thestudy, published in June, predicted that stormier weather,rising tides, heavier rains, and changes in prevailing winddirections will impact airliner flight routes, where travel-ers choose to vacation, the length and placement of run-ways, and investments in drainage infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the U.S. will be a much hotter place, pre-cipitation patterns will shift, and climate extremes will in-crease by the end of the 21st century. These are the find-ings reported in January by the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration in support of the NationalClimate Assessment. Temperatures have generally beenhigher in most areas, apart from the Southeast, says thereport. It notes also that the country has seen increasesin overall annual precipitation and rises in potentiallydangerous extreme weather events such as heat wavesand heavy rains.

Politicians and some scientists may question the pre-cise role of fossil fuel emissions and jet contrails in theplanet’s warming, but some airport authorities and airlinesare beginning to accept that the climate will warm for what-ever reasons, and they are starting to write the potential im-pacts into their strategic plans.

Projected challengesThe Eurocontrol report lists a range of challenges that cli-mate change could bring, from having to deal with moretorrential rain at airports to shifting patterns of air traveldemand within Europe. The study builds on other Euro-control research that in 2011 reported, “With over 30 Eu-ropean airports potentially at risk of loss of runway ca-

CLIMATE CHANGEAND AVIATION

How climate change is likely to affect aviation operations, both in the air and on the

elsewhere have begun to take the issue seriously. Some nations view themselves as

bodies such as the EU have begun pumping sharply increased funding into devising


by Philip Butterworth-HayesContributing writer

FORECASTINGTHE EFFECTS

pacity through such impacts as sea-level rise and stormsurges, the future impact on runway operations could bevery significant for the European ATM system. Of partic-ular significance is the number of secondary or diver-sionary airports which may also be closed if the main air-port were closed.”

In North America, a small but growing number ofmajor hubs are beginning to look seriously at increasingtheir protection against more frequent and more extremeweather events. According to Airport Climate Adaptationand Resilience, a 2012 report prepared by the TransportResearch Board and sponsored by the FAA, around 70%of airport delays are the result of extreme weatherevents, and these are on the increase.

“In 2011, the United States witnessed a record 12weather/climate disasters, each costing $1 billion ormore,” says the report. “Quite often, how airports re-spond to these events influences future planning. Bydefining and more explicitly addressing the risks that cli-mate change now presents to air travel, airports can ex-tend and enhance the benefits from present day invest-ments in maintenance, data collection, and capitalimprovements. For example, in 2011 Tropical StormIrene closed all major New York airports. Although nota hurricane, but recording 5 to 8 inches of rain, thestorm generated news that certain categories of hurri-canes would put JFK International Airport under morethan 15 ft of water.”

According to research by the U.S. Global Change Re-search Program: “Recent hot summers have seen flightscancelled due to heat, especially in high altitude locations.Economic losses are expected at affected airports. A recentillustrative analysis projects a 17% reduction in freight car-rying capacity for a single Boeing 747 at the Denver airportby 2030 and a 9% reduction at the Phoenix airport due toincreased temperature and water vapor.”

This is not the only research that points the way topossible changing weather patterns increasing disruptionof air travel.

ground, is a matter of controversy. But many decision-makers in Europe, the U.S., and

less vulnerable to the problem than others, but all are likely to notice that governing

adaptive strategies.


According to Williams, “Air turbulencedoes more than just interrupt the service ofin-flight drinks….The total cost to society isabout £100 million [$150 million] each year.”

Need for more dataHow bad will it get? The data are, to say theleast, contradictory. In its 2011 ClimateChange Adaptation Report, the U.K. NationalAir Traffic Services company, known asNATS, set out its view of the risks that risingsea levels and more extreme weather phe-nomena pose to its aviation infrastructure.

According to its study, “Measurementof sea levels over the past century hasshown that levels have been rising at amean rate of 1.8 mm per year. More recentsea level measurement by satellite has esti-mated rates of 2.8 ±0.4 to 3.1 ±0.7 mm peryear between 1993–2003. However from2006 to 2010 the rate of sea level risedropped back to levels approaching zero.Values for predicted sea level rise over thecourse of this century typically range from90 to 880 mm (3.54 inches – 2.89 ft), with acentral value of 480 mm (1.57 ft).”

On the other hand, the sheer numberof climate change phenomena identified byICAO (International Civil Aviation Organi-zation) as likely to impact aviation givesmuch greater cause for concern.

Planning for resilienceIn the U.S., only a relatively small numberof airports have actively developed climatechange resilience strategies. In May, at theEnvironmental Affairs Conference held byAirports Council International North Amer-ica, only 4% of the airports contacted haddeveloped such strategies. A small percent-age said climate change is considered toochallenging a political topic, but most didnot anticipate being negatively impacted bysuch change, or did not have sufficicient re-sources to address the issue.

The picture is complex, because an in-crease in temperatures—predicted by manyclimatologists—is likely to benefit as manyairports and airlines as it disrupts. For ex-ample, some would benefit from a reduc-tion in the cost of snow and ice removaland reduced requirements for salt andchemical uses.

But overall, the impact on aviation fa-cilities of changing weather patterns, ac-cording to the latest National Climate As-sessment for the U.S., is not promising:“More frequent interruptions in air serviceand airport closures can be expected. Air-

According to the U.K.’s Manchester Met-ropolitan University Centre for AviationTransport and the Environment (CATE),“Global sea-levels are projected to rise bybetween 0.2 and 0.5 m by 2100. This, espe-cially when combined with an increase instorminess, would result in more frequentflooding and storm surges causing coastalerosion and land subsidence.”

In addition, says the CATE study, “Ris-ing temperatures reduce aircraft lift, therebyrequiring longer take off runs, which couldresult in the need for longer runways atsome airports, or changes in aircraft type ormaximum payload, and potentially airspacechanges and local community impacts. Pre-cipitation changes will impact on airportoperations and design requirements. Anumber of airports have already reportedincidences of extreme rainfall and the oper-ational disruptions that this has caused….Investment in drainage infrastructure willbe required if operational disruptions are tobe avoided.”

And it is not just on the ground whereproblems will occur, many forecasters say.In the U.K., Paul Williams from the Univer-sity of Reading and Manoj Joshi from theUniversity of East Anglia have analyzed supercomputer simulations of the atmo-spheric jet stream over the North AtlanticOcean. They conclude that by the middleof this century, the chances of encounter-ing significant turbulence will increase bybetween 40% and 170% as a result of cli-mate change. The amount of airspace con-taining significant turbulence at any timewill most likely double. The averagestrength of turbulence will also increase,by 10-40%.

In 2011 'Berit,' considered a100-year storm, hit a helipadat Vaeroy, Norway. Climatemodels predict that storms ofBerit’s magnitude could occuras often as every 10 yearsfrom 2100. Photo by Leif-RuneKristiansen, Avinor.


port facilities including terminals, naviga-tional equipment, perimeter fencing, andsigns are likely to sustain increased winddamage. Airports are frequently located inlow-lying areas and can be expected toflood with more intense storms. As a re-sponse to this vulnerability, some airports,such as LaGuardia in New York City, are al-ready protected by levees. Eight airports inthe Gulf Coast region of Louisiana andTexas are located in historical 100-yearflood plains; the 100-year flood events willbe more frequent in the future, creating thelikelihood of serious costs and disruption.”

Over the next few years there are likelyto be new guidelines for aviation infrastruc-ture providers in many countries, with cli-mate change resilience issues included. Forexample, Norway’s airport company, Avi-nor, has revised its airport design handbookto include new requirements for erosionprotection and a stipulation that new run-ways should not be built lower than 7 mabove sea level. This is a relatively highmargin: Brisbane’s new parallel runway inAustralia is being built 4.1 m above sealevel (exceeding the minimum level recom-mended by engineering consultants, 3.5 m).

Differing perspectivesNations tend to view the challenges of cli-mate change in terms of their own per-ceived vulnerabilities. The impact of risingsea levels is of more or less academic inter-est in Switzerland, under constant review inNorway—where 20 of the nation’s 51 air-ports with regular commercial civil air traffic

EUROPEAN AIRPORTS AND THE RISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Climatic pressures Risks Timeframe of expected event Regions mainly affected

Summer heat • Greater need for ground cooling Medium negative (2025-2080) Southern Europe (2025), west,• Degradation of runways to high negative (2080) east, and central Europe (2080)

and runway foundations• Higher density altitudes causing reduced

engine combustion efficiency• Decreased airport lift and increased

runway lengths

Heavy precipitation • Flood damage to runways Medium negative (2025) European wideevents and other infrastructure to high negative (2080)

• Water runoff exceeds capacityof drainage system

Extreme storms • Wind damage to terminals, No information No informationnavigation, equipment, signage

Sea-level rise • Flooding of runways, outbuildings, Medium negative (2080) European wideand access roads

General • Interruption and disruption to servicessupplied and to ground access

• Periodic airport closures• Higher maintenance costs

Source: European Commission.

are situated between 2.5 and 15 m abovesea level—and of urgent interest in theNetherlands, whose the main hub, Amster-dam/Schiphol, lies 4.5 m below sea level.

At the Netherlands facility, a two-themed ‘Climate Proof Schiphol’ program isunder way. One strand is concerned withspatial design—issues such as drainage, salin-ization, and water level management. Theother is operations based—improved predic-tions of weather conditions and noise, andbetter methods for preventing water pollu-tion caused by deicing chemicals.

Six challenges identified by Eurocontrol• Europe should prepare for higher temperatures and an increase in precipitation. An

exception is Southern Europe, where precipitation will diminish. Increased summer heatand humidity in the Mediterranean Basin may influence the amount and location of demand as traditional destinations could become uncomfortably hot during the summerseason. This would lead to both a temporal and geographic shift in demand. Highertemperatures would also reduce aircraft climb performance, which in turn would affectthe distribution of local noise.

• Heavy precipitation events will reduce airport throughput and challenge an aerodrome’ssurface drainage capacity.

• Snowfall will generally decrease throughout Europe, although there may be heavy snowevents in new areas and an increase in more challenging wet snow conditions. In locationsthat seldom experience snow and are relatively unprepared for it, its effects on airport operations are greatest. Overall, more snow clearing and deicing equipment may be required.

• The strongest storms are expected to become larger and more powerful. Convectiveweather can impact flight predictability and punctuality while having implications for flying predetermined 4D trajectories.

• An increase in larger and more intense convective systems may affect multiple hub airports in a region.

• Changes in prevailing wind direction are also expected, leading to an increase in crosswinds. Associated changes in procedure may have an environmental impact, whilecapacity will be reduced at airports with no crosswind runway.

Source: Eurocontrol.

changing weather scenarios by distributinga single, comprehensive picture of currentweather to a wide variety of users and sys-tems. It will also be integrated into otherNextGen-related systems in the future,” according to the DOT.

The power of moneyThe biggest impacts are not expected tounfold rapidly. According to other Eurocon-trol research, significant flooding risk tocoastal airports will probably occur around2099, and significant changes to travel pat-terns as a result of soaring temperatures intraditional vacation destinations will not oc-cur before 2030.

Even so, climate change resilience isnow high on the political agendas of bothEuropean and North American govern-ments. According to an April 2013 EC re-port, Adapting infrastructure to climatechange: “The European Union will step upits efforts in financing climate-resilient infra-structures in the 2014-2020 budgetary pe-riod. It is foreseen that a minimum of 20%of the overall 2014-2020 EU budget will goin climate-related investments. This is ex-pected to have significant impact on infra-structure in Europe’s less developed re-gions…where most EU funding will beallocated.”

According to one European air naviga-tion service provider with a long coastlineand several major airports with runwaysfairly close to the waves, insurance costs toprotect these facilities have fallen over thepast 12 months, with insurers apparentlyunconcerned about the short-term impactsof climate change. But EU bodies responsi-ble for supporting aviation infrastructuredevelopments now need to see climate re-silience plans built into the airport or ATMagency long-term business strategies.

In February, federal agencies in theU.S. released their first-ever climate changeadaptation plans. The FAA has begun “an-alyzing aviation facility, service, and equip-ment profile data for vulnerability to acombination of storm surge impacts thatclimate change might bring. The assess-ment process involves overlaying outputsof publicly available climate models to FAAassets and operations to identify thosemost affected by storm surge under pro-jected climate scenarios, evaluating meanhigh water mark in relation to the existingelevation,” according to the agency.

Time will tell how appropriate these responses to the challenges really are.

“Schiphol airport and the surroundingarea are very vulnerable to climate change,”according to the Knowledge for Climate Re-search Program consortium, a group of pri-vate and government research agencies co-financed by the Ministry of Infrastructureand the Environment. “The airport is situ-ated, from a hydrology point of view, inone of the most complex and fragile urbanareas in the world. There is no doubt thatcontinued land subsidence, coupled withmore intense periods of precipitation anddrought and with an accelerated rise in sealevels, will force fundamental changes totake place in the design and use of thewhole of the Schiphol region.”

In general—and putting aside local con-siderations—consensus among most NorthAmerican and European aviation organiza-tions seems to be that climate change adap-tation is a challenge but a long-term onethat can be accommodated by relativelysimple changes to current developmentplans. Such measures could include ex-panding drainage capacity, increasing train-ing, and improving forecasting and commu-nications among airports, airlines, and ATMagencies.

A key element of the FAA’s NextGenATM program is its Network EnabledWeather, which will provide common, uni-versal access to aviation weather data. “Thistool will allow ATM to more easily adapt to


POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES

Level of Probability ofuncertainty occurrence

Sea-level rise Virtually certain ≥99%

Temperature changes

Decreases in very cold days Virtually certain ≥99%

Increases in Arctic temperatures Virtually certain ≥99%

Later onset of seasonal freeze,earlier onset of seasonal thaw Virtually certain ≥99%

Increases in very hot daysand heat waves Very likely ≥90%

Precipitation changes

Increases in intense precipitation Very likely ≥90%events

Increases in drought conditions for some regions Likely ≥66%

Changes in seasonal precipitationand flooding patterns Likely ≥66%

Storms

Increases in hurricane intensity Likely ≥66%

Increased intensity of cold-seasonstorms, with increases in winds,waves, and storm surges Likely ≥66%

Source: IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007.

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U nmanned air systems have changedthe way war is waged, allowing mil-itary forces to spy on enemies with-

out putting themselves in harm’s way. Butalthough some UAVs can stay aloft longerthan manned aircraft, their endurance is stilllimited, usually measured in hours.

“Current UAVs provide valuable intelli-gence, surveillance, and reconnaissance[ISR] coverage for troops deployed over-seas,” says DARPA. “However, UAVs cannotstay airborne for extended periods of timebefore needing to be refueled or serviced.”Moreover, the Air Force’s current high-alti-tude, long-endurance (HALE) craft, theNorthrop Grumman-built Global Hawk, isexpensive to buy and operate.

Flying UAVs for days or weeks at a timehas strong appeal, because it would pro-vide continuous presence over areas of in-terest. In addition, such aircraft would gen-erally operate at high altitudes that offer awide view of the Earth and are largely de-void of other traffic.

Current efforts to make ultrapersistentUAVs a reality include Boeing’s PhantomEye and AeroVironment’s Global Observer.

“There are different threats fuelingthese programs,” says aviation analyst LarryDickerson of Forecast International. Theseinclude “the ability to linger for hours oreven days over a suspicious site, such asthe nuclear facilities in North Korea or Iran,or to monitor the area surrounding a mili-

U.S. aerospace firms are trying

to develop unmanned planes

or airships that would stay aloft

for days at a time. DARPA and

others are aiming for endurance

that would be measured in years.

If they succeed, ultra-persistent

unmanned planes would be a new

option for military commanders.


by Marc SelingerContributing writer

marathoners

tary base in a foreign country, or to keepan eye on a border or infiltration route.”

Turning test planes into operationalversions will not be easy, however. Besidesfacing a federal budget environment that isdifficult at best for new programs, these air-craft still have to show that they will deliveras promised.

“Lower cost HALE concepts do have apotential market if they prove to be techno-logically feasible,” says Philip Finnegan, di-rector of corporate analysis at the TealGroup consulting firm. “Affordability is anissue for Global Hawk, the current systemthat dominates the market.”

Another challenge for new HALE aircraftis that the Defense Department is already de-veloping other, unspecified long-endurancecapabilities that may weaken the case for aPhantom Eye or Global Observer. At an Aprilhearing of the House Armed Services Com-mittee, Lt. Gen. Charles Davis, militarydeputy to the Air Force acquisition chief, al-luded to “classified platforms” that could dothe mission of a Block 30 Global Hawk.

These classified platforms “might bethe Pentagon’s alternative, for now, to thesepersistent surveillance aircraft design pro-grams,” says Dickerson.

Phantom EyeBoeing has pumped millions of its owndollars into designing, building, and testingits Phantom Eye demonstrator. The aircraft

is designed to perform ISR and communi-cations missions for up to four days withoutrefueling, at altitudes of up to 65,000 ft. Forfuel it uses environmentally friendly, energy-efficient liquid hydrogen cooled at -420 F ina well-insulated tank. The only byproductis water vapor released into the atmospherethrough exhaust ducts.

Although satellites already can providepersistent coverage for ISR and communica-tions, putting this capability on an airborneplatform is attractive for several reasons: Anaircraft, at least theoretically, could be as-signed a new mission more easily, wouldcost less to build, and would provide higherresolution imagery.

“It’s exciting, because you’re on thecusp of the next big thing in aerospace,”says Keith ‘Monty’ Monteith, Boeing’s busi-ness development lead for Phantom Eye.“You can deliver satellite-like capabilitiesfrom an airplane, which raises the bar interms of affordability.”

Liquid hydrogen contains three timesmore energy per pound than conventionalaviation fuel. Boeing therefore believes thatPhantom Eye not only could far outlastGlobal Hawk’s roughly 30-hr endurance butalso could provide its high-altitude capabil-ity at the operating cost of a medium-alti-tude Predator UAV.

“What enables that low cost of opera-tions is the use of liquid hydrogen as afuel,” Monteith says. “It reduces the amount

Boeing’s Phantom Eye flew forthe first time in June 2012.Credit: Boeing.


chor models and define requirements forfuture systems.”

MDA does not envision Phantom Eyeas a successor to the cancelled AirborneLaser, a modified Boeing 747 designed toshoot down ballistic missiles. Derailed bycost and performance concerns, the planenever made it past the test bed stage.“There are no plans for an airborne laser asa weapon system—that went away withABL—and there are no plans to resurrect itas an interceptor technology,” says agencyspokesman Richard Lehner. “The currentinitiative is to determine if directed energyhas a place as a sensor.”

Phantom Eye is smaller than the opera-tional version Boeing envisions building.The company is doing conceptual designwork on the operational aircraft, whichwould look similar to the demonstrator butwould have a larger wingspan—250 ft vs.150 ft—and more fuel capacity to give it in-creased endurance, up to 10 days. It wouldalso be able to carry a larger payload. Out-side aviation experts are closely watchingthe demonstrator’s performance.

“Phantom Eye appears to be promisingat this point,” Finnegan says. “It has consid-erable corporate support from Boeing and,if the technology proves itself, it could sat-isfy customer requirements for a longer en-durance, lower cost system. The PhantomEye could cut costs by enabling up to 10days of endurance by a UAV. That wouldmean fewer UAVs would have to be pur-chased to cover an area. It would alsomean that less would be spent getting toand from the target. With its greater auton-omy, it potentially could reduce the man-power costs of operation.”

Next Global Observer takes shapeBoeing is not alone in developing ultra-persistent unmanned planes. AeroViron-ment has been working on HALE systemssince the late 1980s and has flown a seriesof solar-powered craft, including Centurion,Helios, Pathfinder, and Pathfinder Plus.

Pathfinder Plus, which had 10 flighttests in the 1990s, is on display at theSmithsonian Air and Space Museum’sSteven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly,Virginia. In 2001, Helios set a world recordfor aircraft by reaching an altitude of almost97,000 ft.

But for an energy source that would besufficient even in winter, AeroVironmenteventually turned away from the Sun.Working with internal funds, it built a liq-

of weight of the vehicle that’s dedicated to-carrying fuel,” so there is “more payloadavailable, and you can keep that payloadaloft for a lot longer.”

Boeing launched the Phantom Eyedemonstrator program in 2008 and unveiledthe craft to the public in 2010. The firstmedium-speed taxi test took place in March2012. Flight testing began in June 2012, andBoeing has gradually increased the altitudeand duration. By mid-September, PhantomEye had completed five flight tests, all at Ed-wards AFB, California.

During the first flight, the aircraftstayed airborne for 28 min and reached4,080 ft. In an apparently temporary set-back, the landing gear was damaged whenPhantom Eye touched down, promptingBoeing to install an upgrade. On the sec-ond flight, in February of this year, the air-craft remained aloft for 66 min and ex-ceeded 8,000 ft. For the third flight, inApril, Phantom Eye flew for 2 hr 15 minand climbed to 10,000 ft.

The third test “was a very good flight,”and the vehicle remained “well controlled”despite encountering air turbulence, saysBrad Shaw, Boeing’s Phantom Eye programmanager.

During the fourth flight, on June 14,the UAV climbed to 20,000 ft and remainedaloft for about 3 hr. At this writing, theprogram had not set a specific date forreaching the 65,000-ft altitude milestone.“We’re going to do it as quickly as ourflight test processes and safety will allow,”Shaw says.

A timeframe for reaching the four-dayendurance maximum is yet to be deter-mined as well, he adds.

First customer, future outlookShortly before the UAV’s fourth flight, Boe-ing lined up its first payload customer. ThePentagon announced June 5 that the MissileDefense Agency awarded the company $6.8million to fly a vibration-sensing payloadaboard the aircraft starting with the fifthflight, which took place Sept. 14. PhantomEye climbed to 28,000 ft and remained aloftfor nearly four and a half hours. The pay-load collected “vibration disturbance data,”which could lay groundwork for a new air-borne laser system someday, says agencyspokeswoman Debra Christman.

“A long-endurance platform operatingin a quiet environment would benefit bothsensor and laser performance,” Christmansays. The agency “will use the data to an-


uid-hydrogen-fueled, one-third scale GlobalObserver and flew it in 2005.

The company then built a full-scaleversion under a $140-million Joint Capabil-ity Technology Demonstration programsponsored by the Pentagon and the Dept.of Homeland Security. That version ofGlobal Observer was designed to fly at65,000 ft for up to a week and provide persistent communications and surveil-lance. The liquid-hydrogen-fueled aircraft,which carried government payloads,racked up eight successful flight tests in2010 and 2011.

“Global Observer has moved quicklyfrom development and testing towarddemonstrating mission-ready, affordablepersistence,” AeroVironment Chairman andCEO Tim Conver said at the time. But inApril 2011, disaster struck. About 18 hr intoGlobal Observer’s ninth flight test, theplane was destroyed in a crash at EdwardsAFB. Having run out of money, the Penta-gon demonstration project came to an end.

“Flight testing an innovative new solutionlike Global Observer involves pushing thefrontiers of technology and convention,”Conver said after the accident. “Risk is a com-ponent of every flight test program, and thelearning that results from a mishap enablesus to improve system reliability and perform-ance. One benefit of testing an unmannedaircraft system is that pilots and crew are notin harm’s way when a mishap occurs.”

Exactly what happened remains a mys-tery, at least to outside observers. The AirForce says it did not investigate the acci-dent because it did not own the aircraft. Itreferred questions about the accident toAeroVironment, which declined to revealthe cause of the crash.

“We identified and resolved the causeof the mishap, which was unrelated to thenumerous critical innovations we devel-oped to enable Global Observer’s satellite-like capabilities,” says Steve Gitlin, AeroVi-ronment’s vice president of marketingstrategy and communications.

Despite the crash and the disappear-ance of government backing, AeroViron-ment continues to see a future for GlobalObserver. In March, the company an-nounced it had paid $3 million to buy backthe program’s remaining assets, includingthe second aircraft and the fixtures to pro-duce and support it.

The second Global Observer now sitsat AeroVironment’s factory in VenturaCounty, where it is 80-90% complete, Gitlinsays. The craft has a 175-ft wingspan, mak-ing it slightly larger than a 767. The com-pany is talking to interested parties inhopes of securing funding to finish theplane and move it into production.

“The capability is ready to go, from ourperspective,” Gitlin says.

Skeptics abound, but some analysts arenot writing off Global Observer just yet.

AeroVironment’s secondGlobal Observer sits in acompany factory in California.Credit: AeroVironment.

Ion Tiger, Solara, Vulture, X-56AThere are other entities working on long-endurance UAVs as well. The Naval Re-search Laboratory, for example, is develop-ing Ion Tiger, a small, low-altitude liquid-hydrogen-powered demonstrator. In April,the 35-lb UAV flew for 48 hr 1 min, almostdouble its previous record, set in 2009.

In contrast to Phantom Eye and GlobalObserver, which are large craft designed forhigh altitudes and hundreds of pounds ofpayload, Ion Tiger would be capable ofcarrying a payload in the 5-15-lb range.

“The challenge now is to make the leapfrom a demonstrator vehicle to a tacticalsystem,” says Karen Swider-Lyons, head ofthe alternative energy section in the NRLchemistry division. “Opportunities includerobustness and simplification of the hydro-gen fueling and logistics.”

In August, Titan Aerospace announcedat an unmanned systems conference inWashington, D.C., that it is developing theSolara, an “atmospheric satellite” that is ac-tually a solar-powered, high-altitude un-manned aircraft. Titan envisions that the So-lara could stay aloft for months or years ata time for communications, reconnaissance,and other missions.

“The Solara promises to open the doorfor stationing payloads near the edge ofEarth’s atmosphere,” Titan says. “Unlikespace satellites, the Solara is far less expen-sive to buy and launch, has a larger launchwindow, and most importantly, can easilybe brought back for maintenance or pay-load upgrades. This allows the flexibility offlying different missions with the sameserviceable airframe.”

Finnegan says the company can bounceback from the crash if the relatively smallfirm can line up external funding.

“The Global Observer, which is a com-petitive system to the Phantom Eye, is alsopromising,” Finnegan says. “The difficultythat AeroVironment faces is its size and theresources it can devote to the programcompared to Boeing. It needs customers tohelp fund development but does not havethem in place yet. Boeing can move aheadon its own to prove the concept.”

The Ion Tiger completes a record flight time of 48 hr 1 min. The electric fuel cellpropulsion system has the low noise and signature of a battery-powered UAV. Photo: U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

Originally a full-scale flightdemonstration effort,DARPA’s Vulture programnow focuses on advancingcritical energy managementtechnologies—solar collection(photovoltaics) and fuel cells(energy storage systems).

The X-56A takes off on its inaugural flight July 26 at Edwards AFB. NASA photo by Kenneth E. Ulbrich.


DARPA’s Vulture project has backedaway from its original goal of producing afull-scale flight demonstration. The programis now developing technologies to collectand store enough solar energy to allow asolar-powered unmanned aircraft to stayairborne for five years.

“These technologies are the least ma-ture and are vital for enabling ultra-persis-tent HALE flights lasting multiple years,” aDARPA statement says. “By narrowing theprogram’s focus, DARPA seeks to advanceenergy management technologies thatwould benefit a number of future HALE air-craft applications and should reduce riskfor development of future very long en-durance aircraft programs.”

Boeing is working on the program atseveral of its U.S. locations, including bothHuntington Beach and St. Louis, accordingto Army Lt. Col. Joseph Hitt, DARPA’s Vul-ture program manager. In August the com-pany was testing solar panels in its labora-tories and developing components for theaircraft’s energy storage system, said Hitt.

“Vulture’s advanced energy storage sys-tem technologies ultimately could enable aretaskable, persistent pseudosatellite capa-bility in an aircraft package,” the agencysays. “Such a system would combine keybenefits of an aircraft—flexibility and re-sponsiveness, sensor resolution, reducedtransmit/receive power, [and] affordability—

with the benefits of space assets: on-stationpersistence, no logistics tail, energy inde-pendence, fleet size, [and an] absence of in-country footprint.”

Another initiative, the X-56A un-manned flight research vehicle, is exploringtechnologies that could advance HALEflight. Chief among these is controllinglightweight, aerodynamically efficient air-craft configurations. The X-56A arrived atEdwards AFB in late April and was flight-tested for the first time on July 26, 2013.The program is a joint effort of the AirForce Research Laboratory, NASA Dryden,and Lockheed Martin.

Airships vs. fixed wingFixed-wing aircraft have not always mo-nopolized long-endurance flight. Recentyears have seen attempts to equip un-manned airships with ultra-persistent ISRcapabilities. Such efforts have run into seri-ous problems, however, and the U.S. mili-tary’s interest seems to have waned.

The Army’s Long Endurance Multi-in-telligence Vehicle (LEMV), a helium-filled

prototype with an advertised endurance of21 days, was meant to carry intelligenceand communications payloads in Afghan-istan. But in April the service announcedthat it was canceling the effort, citing “tech-nical and performance challenges” and “thelimitations imposed by constrained re-sources.” At one point, LEMV was at least10 months behind schedule and about12,000 lb overweight, the Government Ac-countability Office wrote in a November2012 report on airships and aerostats.

The Air Force pursued a similar effort,Blue Devil Block 2, but terminated it inJune 2012 after it “experienced significanttechnical problems resulting in cost over-runs and schedule delays,” according to theGAO. The Pentagon’s inspector generalconcluded in a Sept. 19 report that the AirForce ignored warnings that the develop-ment schedule was too ambitious.

“At the time of project cancellation, theBlue Devil Block 2 airship was more than10,000 lb overweight, which limited theairship’s estimated endurance,” said a GAOreport. “The weight issue contributed toother design concerns, the tail fins weretoo heavy and were damaged during test-ing, and the flight control software experi-enced problems related to scaling to alarger airship.”

Fixed-wing aircraft proponents are notsurprised that their systems have outlivedthe airship programs.“We believe the tech-nology is much nearer term” for fixed-wingaircraft than for airships, Monteith says.“Airships may eventually have their day,but at least for the high-altitude market withrobust payloads, we believe fixed wing isthe way to go.”


The LEMV, a helium-filled craft from Northrop Grumman,was meant to carry ISR and communications payloads.

from far more distant galactic sources.New York Times, Nov. 2, 1963, p. 63.

Nov. 7 At the White Sands MissileRange in New Mexico, the Apollo escape system undergoes successfultesting on an unmanned Apollo boilerplate command module spacecapsule. The main solid-propellantfour-canted-nozzle escape rocket,built by Lockheed Propulsion, burnsfor 8 sec with 155,000 lb of thrust,up to more than 5,000 ft. A smallsolid-propellant pitch motor controlsthe direction of the flight. Threeparachutes are then deployed andsafely deposit the capsule back to the ground. Aviation Week, Nov. 25,1963, pp. 52-53.

Nov. 21 The solid-propellant, two-stage Nike-Apache becomes the firstmodern rocket launched in India.Boosted from the Thumba launch

range outside Trivandrum nearthe Indian Ocean, it reaches

an altitude of 106 mi. Itthen deploys scientificexperiments in whichsodium-vapor ejectionsmeasure the speedand direction of upper atmospheric

winds. The rocket, furnished by the U.S.,

is assembled by Indiantechnicians. France also

contributes to the effort. NASA Press Release 63-105; Flight International, Dec. 5, 1963, p. 935;Aviation Week, Dec. 2, 1963, p. 34.

Nov. 22 President John F. Kennedy isassassinated in Dallas, Texas. Within 2

hr Vice President Lyndon B. Johnsontakes the oath of office as the 36thpresident of the United States aboardthe presidential jet, Air Force One.New York Times, Nov. 24, 1963, p. E1.

Nov. 22 The Relay 1 communicationssatellite conducts the first live trans-mission of TV signals across the PacificOcean. However, a previously tapedmessage of greeting from PresidentKennedy is deleted from the broadcastwhen word of his assassination is received. NASA Press Release 63-256.

Nov. 25 A Sikorsky S-61N helicoptertakes off from Dacca Airport in EastPakistan to inaugurate what will be“the most comprehensive helicopterservice ever operated,” according toa Pakistan International Airwaysstatement. The S-61N carries 24 passengers, a flight and cabin crewof four, and 1,800 lb of cargo. FlightInternational, Dec. 5, 1963, p. 911.

Nov. 27 Boosted by anAtlas vehicle, the Centaurupper stage is successfullyorbited and burns for 380sec. This is the world’s firstflight of a hydrogen-oxygenrocket, a milestone inspace exploration. (This isthe Centaur’s second testflight; the first ended in anexplosion soon after liftoffin 1962.) It consists of twoPratt & Whitney RL10A-3 rocket engines and is capable of being shutdown and restarted in space. Develop-ment began in 1956, but the use ofLOX/hydrogen was theoretically pro-posed in the early 1900s by Russianrocket pioneer Konstantin Tsiolkovsky.Centaur opens the way to a new eraof larger payloads and more ambitiousmissions into interplanetary space. Itwill later serve as the upper stage onlaunch vehicles for Viking flights toMars and Voyager missions to theouter planets. Aviation Week, Dec. 9,

25 Years Ago, November 1988

Nov. 6 The DOD launches a classifiedsatellite into orbit on a Titan 34Dbooster. NASA, Astronautics andAeronautics, 1986-1990, p. 195.

Nov. 15 The USSR finallylaunches its space shuttle,the Buran (Snow Storm).It greatly resembles the U.S. shuttle but isunmanned and entirelyautomatic. An Energiarocket boosts the craft,which does not havemain engines. Buran canbe fitted with jet enginesfor landing assistance. Itcompletes two orbitsand lands successfully. Itmakes no other flights.

NASA, Astronautics and Aeronautics,1986-1990, p. 196.

Nov. 26 A Soyuz TM-7 islaunched from theBaikonur Cosmodromefor a rendezvouswith the SovietUnion’s Mir spacestation. The flightcarries three cosmo-nauts, includingJean-Loup Chretienof France. Watchingfrom the cosmodrome isFrench President François Mitterand. During the long mission,Chretien will conduct the first space-walk by a Western European. NASA,Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990, p. 196.


Nov. 1 Arecibo Ionospheric Observa-tory, the world’s largest radar-radiotelescope, is dedicated in Arecibo,Puerto Rico. The 1,000-ft-diam. bowlgreatly exceeds the capabilities ofearlier telescopes, detecting radiation


1963, p. 21; Flight International, Dec. 5,1963, p. 935.

Nov. 29 President Johnson signs anorder that renames the NASA LaunchOperations Center at Cape Canaveral,Fla., the John F. Kennedy Space Center,in honor of the late president. CapeCanaveral is also renamed CapeKennedy. D. Baker, Spaceflight andRocketry, p. 159.


Nov. 5 Three RAF Vickers Wellesleymonoplane bombers set a world non-stop distance record of 7,162 mi., flying from Ismalia, Egypt, to Darwin,Australia, in 48 hr 5 min. Portions ofthe flight encounter extremely badweather, making radio reception impossible and forcing the crew tonavigate by dead reckoning. Thecommanding pilot is Sqn. Ldr. RichardKellett. Aircraft Year Book, 1939, pp. 163, 469; The Aeroplane, Nov. 9,1938, pp. 547-549.

Nov. 10 The founder of modernTurkey, Mustafa Kemal (also knownas Kemal Ataturk), dies in Istanbul.During WW I, most of the aviators inTurkey were Germans or Austrians,and there was no effort to build upthe flying corps.After 1918,however, Kemal beganrebuilding his nation’s airforce. Turkishofficers weresent to England fortraining, andTurkey beganbuying Britishplanes, includingBristol Blenheims.The Aeroplane,Nov. 23, 1938,p. 634.

Nov. 25-Dec. 11 At the Paris AirShow, eight nations display 47 airplanes. All but 19 are militarytypes and include fighters, bombers,reconnaissance aircraft, and trainers.Most of the planes are capable of310 mph or more. Britain’s Super-marine Spitfire, rated at more than355 mph, is the fastest aircraft onexhibit. The Aeroplane, Dec. 14,1938, p. 779.

Nov. 29-30 Pilot Johnny Jones setsa record for aircraft weighing lessthan 700 lb, flying a 50-hp Aeroncanonstop from Los Angeles to Roo-sevelt Field in New York. The flight,which lasts 30 hr 37 min, uses 123

gal of gasoline and a quart of oil, costing a total of $31. W. Shrader, Fifty Years ofFlight, p. 66; Aircraft Year Book, 1939, p. 162.

Nov. 30 On a goodwill visit in return for the JapaneseDivine Wind flight from Tokyo to Berlin in April 1937, a German four-engined Focke-Wulf Condor namedBrandenburg completes an 8,375-mi. flight from Berlinto Tokyo. This is also the fastest flight ever made betweenEurope and Japan. The Brandenburg makes four stopsduring the trip, whose total flying time is 41 hr. It carriesa goodwill message from Field Marshal Hermann Goeringto the Japanese people. Aero Digest, January 1939, p. 40;The Aeroplane, Dec. 7, 1938, p. 732.


Nov. 6 R.H. Carr wins the British EmpireMichelin Trophy by flying his Grahame-Whitebiplane a total distance of 300 mi., makingstops every 60 mi. along the way. A vanHoorebeeck, La Conquete de L’Air, p. 101.

Nov. 10 The German dirigible LZ 21 completes its first flight. A. van Hoorebeeck,La Conquete de L’Air, p. 102.

Nov. 22 Charles A.H.Longcroft pilots his B.E.2abiplane 445 mi. betweenMontrose and Farnborough,England, in 7 hr 20 min,winning the first BritanniaTrophy. A. van Hoorebeeck,La Conquete de L’Air, p. 102.


An Aerospace Chronology

by Frank H. Winter

and Robert van der Linden

http://web.mit.edu

Tenure-Track Faculty Positions

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Tenure-Track/Tenured Faculty PositionAerospace Engineering

The Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engi-neering at Rutgers University invites applications and nominations for a tenure-track/tenured aerospace engineering faculty position at the level of Assistant, Associate or Full Professor beginning in January 2014. Candidates with expertise in Aerospace Engineering and Systems including flight mechanics, aerospace ve-hicles, automated optimal design in aerospace systems, experimental diagnostics in high speed flows, satel-lite dynamics and control, unmanned aerial systems including micro- nano- air vehicles and morphing aerodynamics, aircraft and helicopter structures, air breathing propulsion, space propulsion, space struc-tures, space robotics, spacecraft controls and dynamics, are highly encouraged to apply. Candidates should demonstrate a capacity to develop a nationally recognized and externally funded scholarly research program. Excellence in teaching in Mechani-cal and Aerospace Engineering undergraduate and graduate programs is required. The candidate will be expected to develop both undergraduate and graduate level courses in aerospace engineering, and must hold an earned doctorate in Aerospace Engineering or a closely related field.The Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (MAE) Department has 28 full-time faculty with more than 600 undergraduate students and 170 graduate stu-dents. The MAE Department is one of seven within the School of Engineering at Rutgers-New Brunswick, a culturally and academically diverse environment with more than 4,000 full-time faculty, 6,000 graduate stu-dents and 41,000 undergraduate students. Please submit your application at http://apply.interfo-lio.com/22403. Applications should include a detailed resume including the name and contact information of at least three references, and a statement of research and teaching interests. Applications will be reviewed until the position is filled. Questions concerning the position may be sent to [email protected] Rutgers University is an equal opportunity/affirmative action/Title IX employer. All persons are invited to apply regardless of race, color, gender, national origin, religion, disability, or sexual orientation.


DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL AND AEROSPACE ENGINEERING-DEPARTMENT CHAIR

The College of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Central Florida (UCF) solicits applications and nominations for the position of Chair of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (MAE). A doctorate in an appropriate engineering discipline or a closely related field is required, as is a distinguished record of scholarship, teaching, research funding, and professional visibility. Administrative experience is highly desirable. UCF is located on a beautiful, modern campus in a suburban setting just outside Orlando. Enrollment is approximately 60,000 at the 2rd largest university in the U.S. The MAE Department is home to 26 full-time faculty, several lecturers and adjuncts, and a Center for Advanced Turbines and Energy Research (CATER). The reputation of the department is continually growing with numerous faculty achievements including NSF CAREER awards, an ONR Young Investigator award, and fellowships in professional societies. The annual research expenditures of the department are nearly $6 million with funding from both industries and government agencies. Areas of strength include energy, turbomachinery, biofluids, nanomaterials and composites, manufacturing, and mechanical systems and control (www.cecs.ucf.edu/mae). Opportunities abound for multidisciplinary research with other academic and research units at UCF, including the new College of Medicine and several research centers at UCF. Opportunities for collaboration and industry partnership exist with Alstom, Harris, Lockheed Martin, Pratt and Whitney, Progress Energy, SAIC, Siemens, and over 100 high-tech companies in a research park near the UCF campus. The MAE Chair will provide leadership and vision that builds on the strengths of the department; identifies promising new programs and initiatives; and encourages innovation, creativity, collaboration, and professional growth for the faculty, staff, and students. Under the Chair's direction, the department is expected to participate in cutting-edge, multidisci-plinary research and to contribute substantially to the growing reputation of the College of Engineering and Computer Sci-ence (CECS) for excellence in research, education, and professional service. Applications must be submitted electronically at: www.jobswithucf.com (Search Jobs > Keyword: 33396) and should include a cover letter; a complete CV; and a one-page vision statement. Nominations may be sent to: Dr. Ranganathan Kumar ([email protected]), Associate Dean for Research, College of Engineering & Computer Science, University of Central Florida. P.O. Box 162993, Orlando, Florida 32816-2993. Screening of applications will begin December 1, 2013. The position is expected to be filled by August 2014. UCF is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer.

Tenure-Track Faculty Position in Rotor Dynamics and Aeromechanics in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department at The Ohio State University

The Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at The Ohio State University (http://mae.osu.edu/) invites applications from individuals with outstanding credentials for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position in the area of rotor dynamics and aeromechan-ics, specifically with an interest in blade tip/shroud interactions and airfoil damping. Experimental experience in the technical area of airfoil dynamics is preferred. The successful candidate will participate in research activities related to advanced turbomachinery design using high-speed facilities in the Gas Turbine Laboratory within the newly established Aerospace Research Center.

Qualifications:Candidates must have an earned doctoral degree in aerospace or mechanical engineering or a closely related field. The new faculty member is expected to teach core undergraduate and graduate courses in the area of gas turbines and thermal/fluid sciences, develop and sustain active industry and government sponsored research programs in rotor dynamics, aeromechanics and forced response. Screening of applicants will begin immediately and continue until the position is filled. Interested candidates should upload complete curriculum vitae, statements of research and teaching goals, and the names, address, and e-mail addresses of four references. The website link is http://www.mecheng.osu.edu/faculty_positions.

For details on the position or other related information, please contact:Professor Mo Samimy Chair, Search Committee – Rotor Dynamics and Aeromechanics Aerospace Research Center 2300 West Case Road Columbus, Ohio 43235 [email protected]

To build a diverse workforce Ohio State encourages applications from individuals with disabilities, minorities, veterans, and women. Ohio State is an EEO/AA Employer. Columbus is a thriving metropolitan community, and the University is responsive to the needs of dual career couples.

For more information about the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at OSU, please visit http://mae.osu.edu/.


Faculty OpeningsAeronautics & Astronautics

PURDUE UNIVERSITYThe School of Aeronautics & Astronautics (AAE) at Purdue University invites out-standing individuals to apply for three open faculty positions at all ranks. AAE fac-ulty members teach and conduct research in the broad disciplines of Aerodynamics, Aerospace Systems, Astrodynamics and Space Applications, Dynamics and Control, Propulsion, and Structures and Materials. Candidates with interests in these areas are encouraged to apply. Applicants with expertise in one or more of the following areas are especially sought: spacecraft design, space environments, satellites, attitude de-termination and control of spacecraft; dynamics, systems and control with aerospace applications; and aeroelasticity, structures prognostics, structural and material tech-nologies for high Mach number aerospace vehicles, multifunctional structures and materials, manufacturing of composite materials and structures.

Applicants should have a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral level degree in aerospace -

guished academic record with exceptional potential to develop world-class teach-ing and research programs. Also, the successful candidate will advise and mentor undergraduate and graduate students in research and other academic activities and will teach undergraduate and graduate level courses. To be considered for one of the three tenured/tenure-track positions at the assistant, associate, or full professor ranks, please submit a curriculum vitae, a statement on teaching and research in-terests, and the names and addresses of at least three references to the College of Engineering Faculty Hiring website,https://engineering.purdue.edu/Engr/AboutUs/Employment/, indicating interest in AAE. Review of applicants begins on 11/15/13

employment in this position.

Details about the School, its current faculty, and research may be found at the Purdue AAE website (https://engineering.purdue.edu/AAE).

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Aerospace EngineeringSan Diego State University

Faculty PositionThe Department of Aerospace Engineering invites applications for a tenure-track fac-ulty position at the Assistant Professor level. A preference will be given to applications

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erences to:Professor Allen PlotkinChair, Faculty Search CommitteeDepartment of Aerospace EngineeringSan Diego State UniversitySan Diego, CA 92182-1308Contact info: 619-594-7019; [email protected]

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of employment.

AEROSPACE ENGINEERING AND MECHANICSUNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

The Department of Aerospace Engineering and Mechanics

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To Apply Visit:-


FACULTY POSITIONThe successful candidate will have a Ph.D. Aerospace Engineering or a closely related discipline, interest in developing a quality undergraduate educational program as well as, initiating sponsored research. The can-didate has to demonstrate competence in some of the following areas:

a) Spacecraft dynamics, attitude estimation and controlb) Spacecraft structural analysis and designc) Robotic system for space explorationd) Spacecraft power and thermal management systemse) Spacecraft system engineering and integration

The applicant should have excellent written and oral communication skill in English and Spanish. Also, the applicant should be authorized to work in the United States. Please send resume and academics credentials not later than December 15, 2013:

Inter-American University of Puerto RicoBayamón Campus

500 Road Dr. John Will HarrisBayamón, PR 00957

Email: [email protected]

ext. 2015.Women are encouraged to apply.

Inter American University of Puerto Rico is an Equal Employment

Assistant/Associate

Professor

The Department of Mechanical andAerospace Engineering (MAE) at Utah StateUniversity invites applications for multipletenure-track faculty positions in 1)astronautical engineering; 2) aeronauticalengineering; and 3) solid mechanics/structures. Preference will be given tocandidates at the assistant professor level,although exceptionally qualified candidatesmay be considered at the associate professorlevel. The department is particularlyinterested in candidates with expertise andresearch experience in space systems, orbitdetermination, unmanned and micro-airvehicles, aerodynamics, and aerospacestructures.

See http://jobs.usu.edu (Req. ID 054142)for more information and to apply online.

AA/EOE

University of California, Los AngelesMechanical and Aerospace Engineering DepartmentThe Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department is accept-ing applications to fill a full-time tenure track faculty position in thermal science and engineering at the Assistant Professor level in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (Tracking # 0205- 1314-01). Exceptional candidates at the Associate or Full Professor level may also be considered.

Applicants must hold a doctoral degree in engineering or a closely related discipline. The successful candidate will be responsible for teaching undergraduate and graduate courses and for developing a strong externally sponsored research program. We are inter-ested in outstanding candidates who are committed to excellence in teaching and scholarship and to a diverse campus climate. The University of California is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer. Please apply by submitting your materials via our online applica-tion form, https://recruit.apo.ucla.edu/apply/JPF00091. Applica-tions will be accepted online while the submission site is open until the position is filled. Do not send hard copies, as they will not be processed or returned.

Two Positions in Mechanical Engineering: (1) Assistant Professor and (1) Lecturer

The Department of Mechanical Engineering seeks dynamic scholars to fill one tenure-track faculty position and one lecturer position. The tenure track position is sought to fill the program area of experimental or computational thermofluid sciences. The lecturer position will be expected to teach thermofluids courses and laboratories, a measurements course, and/or basic mechanics courses. In light of Baylor’s strong Christian mission, each successful applicant must have an active Christian faith.

The positions will begin in August 2014. For complete information, please visit:

www.ecs.baylor.edu/ mechanicalengineering/.

Baylor is a Baptist university affiliated with the Baptist General Convention of Texas. As an Affirmative Action/Equal Employment Opportunity employer, Baylor encourages minorities, women, veterans, and persons with disabilities to apply.

The Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering at the Uni-versity of Southern California is seeking applications and nominations for the position of Department Chair. The candidate must have an outstand-ing record of scholarly and technical achievements, a strong commitment to engineering education, effective management and interpersonal skills, and must be eligible for appointment at the full professor level. Excep-tionally strong candidates will also be considered for appointment to an endowed professorship. A PhD degree in aerospace or mechanical en-gineering or a related field is required. Applications should be received preferably by December 2, 2013. Information about the department can be found at http://ame-www.usc.edu.

Interested candidates should prepare an application package consisting of their personal contact information; a curriculum vitae; a cover letter de-scribing their technical qualifications, thoughts on leadership, and their vision of the field in the future; and contact information for at least four professional references. All material in the application package is to be submitted electronically at: http://ame-www.usc.edu/facultypositions/

Inquiries should be directed to the Search Committee Chair, Prof. Lucio Soibelman at [email protected].

USC is an equal-opportunity/affirmative action employer. Women and under-represented minorities are especially encouraged to apply.

The Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering at USC is seeking ap-plications and nominations for two tenure-track or tenured faculty positions in the area of thermo-fluids. Though we particularly encourage applications in the fields of combustion and fluid mechanics, consideration will be given to a broad spectrum of outstanding candidates. We also encourage special applications from more senior scholars who have a well-established academic record and whose ac-complishments are leading/transforming their fields of study. Exceptionally strong candidates will also be considered for appointment to an endowed professorship.

Applicants must have earned a Ph.D. or the equivalent in a relevant field by the beginning of the appointment and have a strong research and publication record. Applications must include a letter clearly indicating area(s) of specialization, a de-tailed curriculum vitae, a concise statement of current and future research direc-tions, a teaching statement, and contact information for at least four professional references. This material should be submitted electronically at http://ame-www.usc.edu/facultypositions/. Early submission is strongly advised and encouraged as the application review process will commence January 6, 2014.

The USC Viterbi School of Engineering is among the top engineering schools in the world. More than a third of its 177 tenured/tenure-track faculty members are fellows of their respective professional societies and 35 affiliated faculty members have been elected to the National Academy of Engineering. The School is home to over 45 research centers and institutes. USC Viterbi faculty conducts research in leading-edge technologies with annual research expenditures typically exceeding $180 million.

The University of Southern California values diversity and is committed to equal opportunity in employment. Men, women and members of all racial and ethnic groups are encouraged to apply.


Browse the opportunities on our website at

peacecorps.gov/response

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“Leland Nicolai and Grant Carichner have succeeded in providing a cutting-edge two-volume aircraft design text and reference addressing probably the most productive modes of air transportation: fixed-wing aircraft and the promising low-speed hybrid cargo airship.”

– Dr. Bernd Chudoba, The University of Texas at Arlington

“This volume combines science and engineering covering the steps required to achieve a successful airship design. It represents an excellent effort to consider every aspect of the design process.”

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“Carichner and Nicolai have created the definitive work on modern airship design containing many techniques, ideas, and lessons learned never before published. In addition, they have collected a set of case studies that will enable tomorrow’s designers to learn from the experience of many who have gone before them.”

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Fundamentals of Aircraft and Airship Design, Volume 2 —Airship Design and Case Studies examines a modern conceptual design of both airships and hybrids and features nine behind-the-scenes case studies. It will benefit graduate and upper-level undergraduate students as well as practicing engineers.

The authors address the conceptual design phase comprehensively, for both civil and military airships, from initial consideration of user needs, material selection, and structural arrangement to the decision to iterate the design one more time. The book is the only available source of design instruction on single-lobe airships, multiple-lobe hybrid airships, and balloon configurations; on solar- and gasoline-powered airship systems, human-powered aircraft, and no-power aircraft; and on estimates of airship/hybrid aerodynamics, performance, propeller selection, S&C, and empty weight.

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GRANT E. CARICHNER’S 48-year career at the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works includes work on SR-71, M-21, L-1011 Transport, Black ASTOVL, JASSM missile, stealth targets, Quiet Supersonic Platform, ISIS high-altitude airship, and hybrid airships. He was named “Inventor of the Year” in 1999 for the JASSM missile vehicle patent. He also holds design patents for hybrid airship configurations. He is an AIAA Associate Fellow.

LELAND M. NICOLAI received his aerospace engineering degrees from the University of Washington (BS), the University of Oklahoma (MS), and the University of Michigan (PhD). His aircraft design experience includes 23 years in the U.S. Air Force, retiring as a Colonel, and 32 years in industry. He is an AIAA Fellow and recipient of the AIAA Aircraft Design Award and the Lockheed Martin Aero Star President’s Award. He is currently a Lockheed Martin Fellow at the Skunk Works.

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Fundamentals of Aircraft and Airship Design, Volume 2 – Airship Design and Case Studies





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Skycrane: Igor Sikorsky’s Last VisionJohn A. McKenna136 pages

The Skycrane was the last creation of aircraft design pioneer Igor Sikorsky. In SKYCRANE: Igor Sikorsky’s Last Vision, former Sikorsky Aircraft Executive Vice President John A. McKenna traces the development of this remarkable helicopter from original concept and early sketches to standout performer for the military and private industry.


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Aerospace America 2013 11.pdf

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