AERA March 25, 2008 Delaware’s Growth Model and Results from Year One
Jan 17, 2016
AERA
March 25, 2008
Delaware’s Growth Model and Results from Year One
Background Information
• Invitation for states to submit proposals to use a growth model
• Pilot project – up to ten states
• Model must demonstrate that it can raise student achievement and enhance school accountability
• “Bright Line” principles of NCLB upheld
• DE first submitted proposal in March 2006 – was denied
• DE revised/resubmitted proposal September 2006
• USED approved for use in 2006-07 with one condition– Cannot use Confidence Interval
• Calculate AYP by original and growth models
• Report both original and growth models
Why did we submit?
• To ensure more valid and reliable accountability determinations
• To monitor various subgroups progress
• To support our value of continuous improvement and longitudinal student growth
What model did we propose?
• Value Table Model
– Maintains emphasis on performance levels (standards based achievement)
– Values longitudinal student growth
– Gives schools credit for moving students towards proficiency
– Values growth especially below the standard
Who chose Delaware’s model?
• Committee of Stakeholders
– District administrators, school administrators, teachers, parents, community
How do value tables work?
• Values are placed in a table to indicate points earned from one year to the next
• Calculate the average growth value for the school and each subgroup in reading and math
• Compare average growth to the target
Value Table for Grade 3
Grade 3 Level
Grade 2 Level
Level
1A
Level
1B
Level
2A
Level
2B
Proficient
Below 0 0 0 200 300
Meets 0 0 0 0 300
Value Table for Grades 4-10
Year 2 Level
Year 1 Level
Level
1A
Level
1B
Level
2A
Level
2B
Proficient
Level 1A 0 150 225 250 300
Level 1B 0 0 175 225 300
Level 2A 0 0 0 200 300
Level 2B 0 0 0 0 300
Proficient 0 0 0 0 300
Growth Value Targets Table
Reading Math
2006 186 123
2007 204 150
2008 204 150
2009 219 174
2010 237 201
2011 252 225
2012 267 249
2013 285 276
2014 300 300
Delaware’s Accountability System:
Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)
2006• Participation (ELA, Math)• Performance (ELA, Math)
– Total School• Original Status /
Safe Harbor
– Subgroup• Original Status /
Safe Harbor
• Other Academic Indicators
2007• Participation (ELA, Math)• Performance (ELA, Math)
– Total School and Subgroup• Growth• Original Status /
Safe Harbor
• Other Academic Indicators
How to meet AYP
• Meet Growth Value Targets or Original Status Targets in ELA and math
• Meet Participation Targets in ELA and math
• Meet the Other Academic Indicator
Ratings
Ratings are determined by the combination of:
• AYP Determination
• State Progress Determination
• Accountability History
Ratings Table
AYP STATE PROGRESS
STATE ACCOUNTABILITY DETERMINATION
AFTER 2 CONSECUTIVE
YEARS
A A Superior
A M Superior
A B Commendable
M A Superior
M M Commendable
M B Commendable Academic Review
B A Academic Review Academic Progress
B M Academic Review Academic Progress
B B Academic Review Academic Watch
Schools facing appropriate consequences per NCLB
How to be classified as
Under Improvement
• Two consecutive years not meeting AYP in same content area
-- ELA
-- Math
-- Other Academic Indicator
What Happened in 2007?
• 193 Schools with ratings– 146 schools (76%) used growth model for
rating• 89 schools (46%) used growth model and made
AYP• 57 schools (30%) used growth model and did not
make AYP
– 47 schools (24%) used original model for rating (all made AYP)
Comparison of Growth to Original
• 82 schools (42%) made both growth and original
• 57 schools (30%) did not make growth or original
• 7 schools (4%) made growth but not original• 41 schools (21%) made original but not
growth• 6 schools used original model only – K, K-1,
K-2 schools – no growth available
Correlation of Growth and Original Models – A look at those schools that did not make
AYP (57 schools)
• Missed reading in growth model also missed reading in original model for same subgroups
• Missed math in growth model may or may not have missed math in original model for same subgroups
• Missed special education in reading or math in growth model also missed in original model
A look at Reading for Those Schools That
Only Made Original Model (47 schools)
Subgroup Met OM Target
CI Safe Harbor Safe Harbor CI
All Students 87% 11% 2% 0%
Black 57% 40% 3% 0%
Hispanic 84% 8% 0% 8%
White 98% 0% 0% 2%
Special Education
4% 21% 42% 33%*
Low Income 65% 28% 5% 2%
A Look at Math for Those Schools That Only Made Original Model (47 schools)
Subgroup Met OM Target
CI Safe Harbor Safe Harbor CI
All Students 99% 0% 2% 0%
Black 89% 8% 1% 0%
Hispanic 92% 8% 0% 0%
White 100% 0% 0% 0%
Special Education
17% 33% 29% 29%
Low Income 86% 12% 0% 0%
Some Observations
• Growth model results will be similar to Original– Principles of NCLB, 100% proficient by 2013-14– Different models produced similar determinations
• Growth models only help when real growth is occurring– Showing growth in low achieving students but rate of
improvement is differs by subgroups
• If AYP was not met:– ½ of the students maintained their level from previous year– 1 in 4 improved– 1 in 4 regressed– Similar pattern across subgroups
Contact Information
• Robin Taylor– [email protected]– 302-735-4080