AEC Final Report

(Final Report)

()

2554

() () () 20 2554 1 4 () . .

7 2554 2 4 () . . .

16 2554 2554

I

............................................................................................................................. 1 1 ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1. .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2. ............................................................................................................. 1-2 1.3. .............................................................................................. 1-2 1.4. .............................................................................................. 1-4 2 2-1 2.1. ...................................... 2-1 2.2. ...................... 2-5 2.2.1. ... 2-5 2.2.2. ............................... 2-9 2.2.3. ................................................................ 2-11 2.2.4. ............................................................... 2-13 2.2.5. ............................................................... 2-14 3 ..................................................................................... 3-1 3.1. ......................................................................................... 3-8 3.1.1. ...................................................................................... 3-8 3.1.2. .......................................................................... 3-10 3.1.3. ............................................................................. 3-11 3.1.4. ................................................................ 3-12 3.2. ...................................................................................... 3-13 3.3. ................................................................................. 3-16 3.4. .......................................................................... 3-20 3.5. ............................................................................. 3-25 3.6. ....................................................................... 3-27 3.7. ......................................................... 3-29 3.8. ........ 3-30 4 ..................................... 4-1 4.1. .......................................................................... 4-1

II

()4.1.1. ...................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.2. ................................................................................... 4-29 4.1.3. .................................................................. 4-34 4.1.4. ASEAN ....................................................................... 4-42 4.2. .. ............................................................................................................................... 4-44 5 ................................. 5-1 5.1. ...... 5-1 5.2. ................. 5-11 5.2.1. ................................................................................ 5-11 5.2.2. ........................................................................................................ 5-12 5.2.3. .... ..................................................................................................................... 5-14 5.2.4. ................ 5-15 5.3. ................ 5-27 5.4. ......................................... 5-30 5.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): ....................................................................................... 5-30 5.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ....................................................................... 5-34 5.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ................................... 5-57 5.4.4. (GSP Hedging) : CLMV ................................................................................... 5-61 5.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): .................. 5-70 5.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ....................... 5-71

III

()5.5. ................................................................................................. 5-76 6 ............................................................... 6-1 6.1. ................................. 6-1 6.2. ................... 6-9 6.2.1. .................................................................................. 6-9 6.2.2. ................. 6-10 6.2.3. ....................... 6-12 6.2.4. ................ 6-14 6.3. ................ 6-15 6.4. ......................................... 6-19 6.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): ....................................................................................... 6-19 6.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ....................................................................... 6-20 6.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ................................... 6-38 6.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV ................................................................................... 6-41 6.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ................ 6-44 6.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ....................... 6-45 6.5. ................................................................................................. 6-47 7 ...................................... 7-1 7.1. .......... 7-1 7.2. ................. 7-12 7.2.1. ................................................................................ 7-12

IV

()7.2.2. ..................................................................................................................... 7-13 7.2.3. 7-14 7.2.4. ................ 7-16 7.3. ................ 7-18 7.4. ......................................... 7-20 7.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): ....................................................................................... 7-20 7.4.2. (One Bigger Market) : ....................................................................... 7-23 7.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ................................... 7-38 7.4.4. (GSP Hedging) : CLMV ................................................................................... 7-44 7.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ................ 7-48 7.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ....................... 7-50 7.5. ................................................................................................. 7-53 8 ............................... 8-1 8.1. .... 8-1 8.2. ................. 8-11 8.2.1. ................................................................................ 8-11 8.2.2. ........................................................................................................ 8-12 8.2.3. .. ..................................................................................................................... 8-14 8.2.4. ................ 8-16

V

()8.3. ................ 8-18 8.4. ......................................... 8-19 8.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): ....................................................................................... 8-19 8.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ....................................................................... 8-21 8.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ................................... 8-40 8.4.4. (GSP Hedging) : CLMV ................................................................................... 8-49 8.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ................ 8-51 8.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ....................... 8-54 8.5. ................................................................................................. 8-56 9 .................... 9-1 9.1. ................................................................................................................................. 9-1 9.2. ................. 9-11 9.2.1. ................................................................................ 9-11 9.2.2. .................................................................................................. 9-12 9.2.3. ........................................................................................................ 9-13 9.2.4. ................ 9-15 9.3. ................ 9-19 9.4. ......................................... 9-20

VI

()9.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): ....................................................................................... 9-20 9.4.2. (One Bigger Market) : ....................................................................... 9-25 9.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ................................... 9-36 9.4.4. (GSP Hedging) : CLMV ................................................................................... 9-44 9.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ................ 9-46 9.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ....................... 9-47 9.5. ................................................................................................. 9-50 10 ............................ 10-1 10.1. 10-1 10.2. ............. 10-11 10.2.1. ......................................................................... 10-11 10.2.2. ................................................................................................. 10-12 10.2.3. ....................................................................................................... 10-13 10.2.4. ......... 10-15 10.3. ........... 10-18 10.4. ..................................... 10-19 10.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): .......................................................... 10-19

VII

()10.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ................................................................ 10-21 10.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ..................... 10-32 10.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV .............................................................. 10-37 10.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ..... 10-41 10.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ................ 10-45 10.5. ............................................................................................. 10-47 11 ....................................................... 11-1 11.1. ......................... 11-1 11.2. ............. 11-13 11.2.1. ......................................................................... 11-13 11.2.2. ...... 11-14 11.2.3. ............ 11-18 11.2.4. ......... 11-21 11.3. ........... 11-38 11.3.1. ................................................................... 11-38 11.3.2. ................................................................... 11-39 11.4. ..................................... 11-40 11.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): .......................................................... 11-40 11.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ................................................. 11-44 11.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ..................... 11-56

VIII

()11.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV .............................................................. 11-61 11.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ..... 11-65 11.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ................ 11-68 11.5. ............................................................................................. 11-72 12 ..................... 12-1 12.1. . ............................................................................................................................ 12-1 12.2. ............. 12-14 12.2.1. ......................................................................... 12-14 12.2.2. ........................................................................................... 12-15 12.2.3. ................................................................................................. 12-18 12.2.4. ......... 12-21 12.3. ........... 12-35 12.3.1. ................................................................... 12-35 12.3.2. ................................................................... 12-36 12.4. ..................................... 12-38 12.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN) : .......................................................... 12-38 12.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ................................................................ 12-41 12.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ..................... 12-51

IX

()12.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV .............................................................. 12-58 12.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ...... 12-62 12.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ................ 12-65 12.5. ............................................................................................. 12-66 13 .................................. 13-1 13.1. ...... 13-1 13.2. ............. 13-14 13.2.1. ......................................................................... 13-14 13.2.2. ................................................................................................. 13-15 13.2.3. .............................................................................................................. 13-18 13.2.4. ......... 13-22 13.3. ........... 13-44 13.3.1. ................................................................... 13-44 13.3.2. ................................................................... 13-45 13.4. ..................................... 13-47 13.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN): .......................................................... 13-47 13.4.2. (One Bigger Market): ................................................................ 13-51 13.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ..................... 13-64 13.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV .............................................................. 13-71

X

()13.4.5. (Supply Chain Optimization): ASEAN ..... 13-74 13.4.6. (Regulatory Arbitrage / Harmonized Regulation): ................ 13-76 13.5. ............................................................................................. 13-79 14 ............................. 14-1 14.1. ... 14-1 14.2. ............. 14-11 14.2.1. ......................................................................... 14-11 14.2.2. ................................................................................................. 14-12 14.2.3. ....................................................................................................... 14-13 14.2.4. ......... 14-15 14.3. ........... 14-18 14.4. ..................................... 14-19 14.4.1. (Competitiveness Among ASEAN) : .......................................................... 14-19 14.4.2. (One Bigger Market) : ................................................................ 14-20 14.4.3. (FTA Utilization Rate): ..................... 14-24 14.4.4. (GSP Hedging): CLMV .............................................................. 14-30 14.5. ............................................................................................. 14-38 15 .......................................................................................................... 15-1

XI

()15.1. .................................................................. 15-3 15.1.1. .......................................................... 15-13 15.1.2. ....................................................... 15-26 15.2. AEC ................................................... 15-35 15.2.1. ................................................................................................ 15-35 15.2.2. ................................................................................................ 15-48 16 ........................................................................................................ 16-1 16.1. ........ 16-2 16.1.1. 11 (.. 2555-2559) ... ................................................................................................................ 16-3 16.1.2. 5 (.. 2553-2557)................ 16-9 16.1.3. (.. 2553 2556) ................... 16-15 16.2. ........ 16-19 16.2.1. (.. 2551-2554) ................... 16-19 16.2.2. (.. 2555-2558) ............. 16-23 16.3. ....................................................................................... 16-27 16.3.1. ........................................................................ 16-28 16.3.2. ................................................................................................. 16-28 16.3.3. ....................................................... 16-29 16.3.4. ....................................................................................... 16-29 16.3.5. ...................................................................... 16-30 16.3.6. .......................................................... 16-30 16.3.7. .............................................................. 16-31 16.3.8. .............................................. 16-31 16.3.9. ...................................................... 16-32 16.3.10. ....................................................................... 16-33 16.3.11. 1-5 ............................................... 16-33 16.3.12. ................................................. 16-40

XII

()16.3.13. ............................................... 16-40 16.3.14. .......................................................... 16-41 16.3.15. ...................................................................... 16-41 16.3.16. ............................................ 16-42 16.4. ................................................................................ 16-42 16.5. ................................................................ 16-53 ....................................................................................................................... -1 1 : 4 ... .......................................................................................................................................... 1-1 2 : .................................... 2-1 3 : ................................................... 3-1 4 : .......................................................................................................................... 4-1 5 : ............................................................................................................................... 5-1

XIII

2-1: ..................................... 2-2 2-2: ............................................. 2-2 2-3: .. 2538-2552..... ................................................................................................................................. 2-10 2-4: .. 2538-2552 .... 2-10 2-5: .. 2538-2552 ....................... 2-12 2-6: .. 2538-2552.............................. 2-12 2-7: .. 2538-2552 ...................... 2-13 2-8: .. 2538-2552 .............................. 2-14 2-9: GDP EU 15 .. 2522-2552 ............................................................... 2-15 2-10: GDP .. 2522-2552 ....................................................... 2-16 2-11: EU 15 .. 2522-2552............................................. 2-17 2-12: .. 2522-2552....................................... 2-18 2-13: EU 15 .. 2522-2552 .................. 2-19 2-14: .. 2522-2552 ....................... 2-20 3-1: ............................................. 3-2 3-2: ............................................. 3-3 3-3: 10 ...... 3-4 3-4: .................................... 3-4 3-5: .............................................................. 3-5 3-6: ...................................................................................... 3-8 3-7: .. 2550-2552 .............................................. 3-18 3-8: .. 2550-2552................................................. 3-19 3-9: 10 .. 2550-2552 ......... 3-20 4-1: .. 2544-2552 ....... 4-4 4-2: .. 2548-2552 ....... 4-5 4-3: .. 2544-2552......... 4-6 4-4: .. 2548-2552 .......... 4-7 4-5: - .. 2544-2552 .................................... 4-9 4-6: - .. 2544-2552..................................... 4-13

XIV

() 4-7: - .. 2544-2552...................................... 4-17 4-8: - .. 2544-2552 ....................................... 4-21 4-9: - .. 2544-2552 ..................................... 4-26 4-10: ASEAN .. 2548-2552 .............. 4-36 4-11: ASEAN .. 2548-2552 .............. 4-43 4-12: ................ 4-48 4-13: ................ 4-51 5-1: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 5-2 5-2: .. 2544-2552 .................................................. 5-3 5-3: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 5-4 5-4: .. 2544-2552 ......................................... 5-5 5-5: .. 2544-2552............................................................................................ 5-7 5-6: .. 2544-2552...................................................................................... 5-8 5-7: .. 2544-2552............................................................................................ 5-9 5-8: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 5-10 5-9: ................... 5-11 5-10: ............ 5-13 5-11: ........... 5-13 5-12: .................. 5-14 5-13: ................. 5-15 5-14: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 .................... 5-61 5-15: ...................................................................................... 5-70

XV

() 5-16: ......... 5-72 5-17: ........................ 5-72 5-18: ................................................................................. 5-74 6-1: .. 2544-2552 2 6-2: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................. 6-3 6-3: .. 2544-2552 ... ................................................................................................................................... 6-4 6-4: .. 2544-2552 .......................................................................... 6-4 6-5: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................................. 6-6 6-6: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................................. 6-7 6-7: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................................. 6-8 6-8: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................................. 6-9 6-9: .............................................. 6-10 6-10: ....................................... 6-11 6-11: ...................................... 6-12 6-12: ............................................. 6-13 6-13: ............................................ 6-13 6-14: .. 2553 ............................... 6-18 6-15: ...................................................................................... 6-45 6-16: ......... 6-46 6-17: ........................ 6-47 7-1: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 7-3

XVI

() 7-2: .. 2544-2552.................................................... 7-4 7-3: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 7-5 7-4: .. 2544-2552 ..................................................... 7-6 7-5: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................................. 7-8 7-6: .. 2544-2552...................................................................................... 7-9 7-7: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 7-10 7-8: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 7-11 7-9: ....................... 7-12 7-10: ................ 7-13 7-11: ............... 7-14 7-12: ...................... 7-15 7-13: ..................... 7-16 7-14: ........................................... 7-19 7-15: .................................................................................. 7-49 7-16: ......... 7-50 7-17: ........................ 7-51 7-18: ..................... 7-52 8-1: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 8-3 8-2: .. 2544-2552.................................... 8-4 8-3: .. 2544-2552 ......................................................................................................... 8-5

XVII

() 8-4: .. 2544-2552 ......................................... 8-5 8-5: .. 2544-2552............................................................................................ 8-7 8-6: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................... 8-8 8-7: .. 2544-2552...................................................................................... 8-9 8-8: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 8-10 8-9: ................. 8-12 8-10: .......... 8-13 8-11: ......... 8-14 8-12: ................ 8-15 8-13: ............... 8-15 8-14: .. 2553 .......................... 8-18 8-15: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 .................... 8-42 8-16: ................................................................................. 8-53 8-17: ................................................................... 8-53 8-18: ......... 8-54 8-19: ........................ 8-55 8-20: .................... 8-55 9-1: .. 2544-2552 .............................................................................................. 9-3 9-2: .. 2544-2552.................................... 9-4 9-3: .. 2544-2552 .............................................................................................. 9-5 9-4: .. 2544-2552 ................................... 9-5

XVIII

() 9-5: .. 2544-2552......................................................................... 9-7 9-6: .. 2544-2552......................................................................... 9-8 9-7: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................... 9-9 9-8: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................. 9-10 9-9: ....... 9-11 9-10: 9-12 9-11: 9-13 9-12: ...... 9-14 9-13: ..... 9-15 9-14: ................................... 9-20 9-15: ......... 9-48 9-16: ........................ 9-49 9-17: ......................... 9-49 10-1: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................... 10-2 10-2: .. 2544-2552.................................. 10-3 10-3: .. 2544-2552 .................................................................................................... 10-4 10-4: .. 2544-2552 ....................................... 10-5 10-5: .. 2544-2552.................................................................................... 10-7 10-6: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................. 10-8

XIX

() 10-7: .. 2544-2552.................................................................................... 10-9 10-8: .. 2544-2552.................................................................................. 10-10 10-9: ............ 10-11 10-10: ..... 10-12 10-11: .... 10-13 10-12: ........... 10-14 10-13: .......... 10-14 10-14: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 ................ 10-34 10-15: ....................................................... 10-42 10-16: ()............ 10-44 10-17: ..... 10-46 10-18: .................... 10-46 11-1: .. 2544 2552 ......................................................................................................................... 11-3 11-2: .. 2544-2552 ................................................................ 11-5 11-3: .. 2544 2552 ......................................................................................................................... 11-5 11-4: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................ 11-6 11-5: .. 2544-2552 ................................................................................................................ 11-9 11-6: .. 2544-2552 ..................................................................................................... 11-10 11-7: .. 2544-2552 .............................................................................................................. 11-11 11-8: .. 2544-2552 .............................................................................................................. 11-12

XX

() 11-9: ...................................... 11-14 11-10: ............................... 11-16 11-11: .............................. 11-17 11-12: ..................................... 11-19 11-13: .................................... 11-20 11-14: ................................................................................................................... 11-44 11-15: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 ................ 11-57 11-16: .............................................................. 11-67 11-17: ..... 11-68 11-18: .................... 11-69 11-19: ................................ 11-70 11-20: ............................. 11-71 12-1: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................................ 12-4 12-2: .. 2544-2552.................................. 12-5 12-3: .. 2544-2552 ............................................................................................ 12-6 12-4: .. 2544-2552 ................................. 12-7 12-5: .. 2544-2552 ........................................................................... 12-10 12-6: .. 2544-2552..................................................................... 12-11 12-7: .. 2544-2552 ........................................................................... 12-12 12-8: .. 2544-2552 ........................................................................... 12-13 12-9: ....... 12-15

XXI

() 12-10: 12-16 12-11: 12-17 12-12: ...... 12-19 12-13: ..... 12-20 12-14: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 ................ 12-54 12-15: ........................................... 12-64 12-16: ..... 12-65 12-17: .................... 12-66 13-1: .. 2544-2552 ....................................................................................................... 13-3 13-2: .. 2544-2552 ................................................ 13-4 13-3: .. 2544-2552 ....................................................................................................... 13-5 13-4: .. 2544-2552 ................................................... 13-6 13-5: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 13-8 13-6: .. 2544-2552.................................................................................... 13-9 13-7: .. 2544-2552........................................................................................ 13-12 13-8: .. 2544-2552........................................................................................ 13-13 13-9: .................... 13-15 13-10: ............ 13-17 13-11: ........... 13-18 13-12: .................. 13-20 13-13: ................. 13-21 13-14: .......................................................................... 13-74

XXII

() 13-15: ..... 13-77 13-16: .................... 13-77 13-17: ...................... 13-79 14-1: .. 2544-2552 ....................................................................................................... 14-3 14-2: .. 2544-2552.................................. 14-3 14-3: .. 2544-2552 ....................................................................................................... 14-5 14-4: .. 2544-2552 ....................................... 14-5 14-5: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 14-7 14-6: .. 2544-2552.................................................................................... 14-8 14-7: .. 2544-2552.......................................................................................... 14-9 14-8: .. 2544-2552........................................................................................ 14-10 14-9: ................ 14-11 14-10: ........ 14-12 14-11: ....... 14-13 14-12: .............. 14-14 14-13: ............. 14-14 14-14: FTA .. 2553 .. 2552 ................ 14-26 14-15: ........... 14-33 14-16: ..... 14-37 14-17: .................... 14-38 15-1: (Analytical Framework) ....................................... 15-1 15-2: ................................................................................ 15-2

XXIII

() 15-3: (FTA Fund) ( .. 2553) ...................................................................................................................... 15-42 15-4: ............................................................................................................................... 15-47 16-1: .................................................................. 16-2 16-2: . .......................... 16-3 16-3: 11 ......................... 16-5 16-4: 5 (.. 2553-2557) .................... 16-12 16-5: (.. 2553 2556) .......................... 16-16 16-6: (.. 2551 2554) ...................... 16-21 16-7: (.. 2555 2558)................. 16-24 16-8: .................................................................................................................... 16-39 16-9: ......................... 16-49 16-10: . 16-59

XXIV

2-1: ................................. 2-3 3-1: ............................................... 3-9 3-2: ........................................ 3-11 3-3: ............................................... 3-27 4-1: ............................................................. 4-2 4-2: ................................................................. 4-8 4-3: ................................................... 4-10 4-4: .................................................... 4-11 4-5: ................................................................. 4-12 4-6: ..................................................... 4-14 4-7: ...................................................... 4-15 4-8: .................................................................. 4-16 4-9: ...................................................... 4-18 4-10: ..................................................... 4-19 4-11: .................................................................. 4-20 4-12: ...................................................... 4-22 4-13: ....................................................... 4-23 4-14: ....................................................................... 4-24 4-15: ............................................................... 4-25 4-16: ................................................... 4-27 4-17: .................................................... 4-28 4-18: ....................................................... 4-29 4-19: ................................................... 4-31 4-20: ..................................................... 4-31 4-21: ...................................................... 4-32 4-22: ....................................................... 4-33 4-23: ............................................................. 4-33 4-24: ..................................................... 4-34 4-25: ASEAN .. 2548-2552 ......... 4-35

XXV

() 4-26: ...................................................................................... 4-38 4-27: ...................................................................................... 4-39 4-28: .. 2552................................................... 4-40 4-29: ASEAN .. 2548-2552 ....................... 4-42 4-30: HS 4 ................................. 4-44 4-31: ..................................................................................................................... 4-49 4-32: ..................................................................................................................... 4-52 4-33: 30 .... ................................................................................................................................. 4-54 4-34: 30 ........................................................................................................................... 4-55 4-35: ............. 4-56 5-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................ 5-16 5-2: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................. 5-21 5-3: .. 2552 2553 ........................................................................................................ 5-29 5-4: .. 2548-2552 ........ ................................................................................................................................. 5-37 5-5: .. 2548-2552 ...... 5-39 5-6: .. 2548 2552 ......................................................................................................................... 5-43 5-7: .. 2548-2552........................................................................... 5-43

XXVI

() 5-8: .. 2553-2563 ............................................................................ 5-44 5-9: .. 2543 2553 .. 2558 ......................................................................................................................... 5-46 5-10: .. 2548-2552 .......................................................... 5-51 5-11: .. 2549-2553 ..... ................................................................................................................................. 5-53 5-12: .. 2549-2553 ............................................................. 5-54 5-13: .. 2548-2552 ..... 5-56 5-14: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................................. 5-56 5-15: .. 2548-2552 .......................................................... 5-57 5-16: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................... 5-58 5-17: FTA 10 6 .. 2553......................................................... 5-59 5-18: 5-62 5-19: LDCS .................................................................................................................. 5-62 5-20: 1 .. 2537 30 .. 2552 .......................................... 5-64 6-1: RCA .. 25482552 ......................................................................................................................... 6-14 6-2: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................ 6-14 6-3: .. 2551 ....... ................................................................................................................................. 6-16

XXVII

() 6-4: .. 2548-2553 .......................................... 6-17 6-5: ......................... 6-18 6-6: .. 2548-2552 .................................. 6-22 6-7: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................ 6-22 6-8: .. 2548-2552 ...................................... 6-23 6-9: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................ 6-23 6-10: 2538 2558 ..................................... 6-24 6-11: .. 2548-2552 ....................... 6-26 6-12: .. 2548-2552 ................................................. 6-26 6-13: .. 2553 - 2563 ..................................................... 6-27 6-14: 2538 2558 ....................................... 6-28 6-15: 2538-2558 ................................... 6-29 6-16: 2538-2558 .................................. 6-30 6-17: 2538-2558................................ 6-31 6-18: .. 2548-2552 .......................... 6-34 6-19: .. 2553, 2558 2563 ................................................................................................................................. 6-34 6-20: .. 2548-2552........................................................................ 6-34 6-21: .. 2549-2553 ............................ 6-36 6-22: 2554, 2558 2563 ... 6-36 6-23: .. 2549-2553 .......................................................................... 6-36 6-24: .. 2548-2552 .......................... 6-38 6-25: .. 2553, 2558 2563 ................................................................................................................................. 6-38

XXVIII

() 6-26: .. 2548-2552........................................................................ 6-38 6-27: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................................. 6-39 6-28: FTA 2 6 .. 2553 ........................................................................................ 6-40 7-1: RCA .. 25482552 ......................................................................................................................... 7-16 7-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................................... 7-17 7-3: .. 2548-2552 .......... 7-25 7-4: .. 2548-2552 ................ 7-27 7-5: 2538-2558 ..................... 7-28 7-6: .. 2548-2552 ... 7-30 7-7: 2543 - 2563 .................... 7-31 7-8: 2538-2558 ............ 7-34 7-9: .. 2548-2552 ...... 7-35 7-10: .. 2549-2553....... 7-37 7-11: .. 2548-2552 .... 7-38 7-12: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................................. 7-39 7-13: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................ 7-41 7-14: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................ 7-42 7-15: LDCS ..................... 7-45 7-16: ...................................... 7-45 8-1: RCA .. 25482552 ......................................................................................................................... 8-16

XXIX

() 8-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................................... 8-17 8-3: .. 2548 2552 ......................................................................................................................... 8-25 8-4: .. 2548-2552......... 8-25 8-5: .. 2553 2563 ......................................................................................................................... 8-25 8-6: .. 2548 2552 ......................................................................................................................... 8-27 8-7: .. 2548-2552 ................ 8-27 8-8: .. 2553 - 2563 .... ................................................................................................................................. 8-28 8-9: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................ 8-30 8-10: .. 2548-2552........ ................................................................................................................................. 8-31 8-11: .. 2553 - 2563....................................................................................................................... 8-31 8-12: .. 2548-2552... 8-36 8-13: .. 2553 2563 ......................................................................................................................... 8-36 8-14: 2549 2553 ......................................................................................................................... 8-37 8-15: 2549 - 2553 ........... 8-38 8-16: .. 2554 2563 ......................................................................................................................... 8-38 8-17: .. 2548-2552 ................................................................................................................ 8-39 8-18: .. 2553 2563 ................................................................................................ 8-39

XXX

() 8-19: .. 2548-2552... 8-39 8-20: 2553 - 2563. ................................................................................................................................. 8-40 8-21: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................................. 8-42 8-22: FTA 6 .. 2553 ........................................................................................ 8-43 8-23: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................ 8-44 8-24: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ........................................................................................ 8-45 8-25: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ................................................... 8-47 8-26: LDCS ................................................................................................................................. 8-50 9-1: RCA .. 25482552 ......................................................................................................................... 9-15 9-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................................... 9-17 9-3: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................................................. 9-37 9-4: FTA 6 .. 2553 ........................................................................................ 9-39 9-5: FTA 6 .. 2553 ........................................................................................ 9-40 9-6: FTA 10 6 .. 2553.......................................................................... 9-41 9-7: FTA 10 6 2553 .................................................................................. 9-42 9-8: .................................... 9-45

XXXI

() 9-9: LDCS .................. 9-45 10-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 10-15 10-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................... 10-16 10-3: FTA 6 .. 2553 ............................................................................................................... 10-33 10-4: FTA 6 .. 2553 ...................................................................................... 10-35 10-5: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ...................................................................................... 10-36 10-6: ... 10-38 10-7: LDCS ........................................................................................................................... 10-38 11-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 11-22 11-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................... 11-26 11-3: ............................. 11-46 11-4: ................................................ 11-46 11-5: .................................... 11-47 11-6: ...................................................... 11-47 11-7: ...................... 11-49 11-8: ........................................... 11-49 11-9: ............................................ 11-52 11-10: ....................... 11-53 11-11: .......................... 11-54 11-12: ............................................ 11-54 11-13: ....................... 11-55 11-14: ................... 11-55

XXXII

() 11-15: FTA 6 .. 2553 ............................................................................................................... 11-56 11-16: FTA 6 .. 2553........................................................ 11-59 11-17: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ................................................................ 11-60 11-18: LDCS ..... ............................................................................................................................... 11-62 11-19: .. 2537 .. 2552 ........................................................................... 11-63 12-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 12-21 12-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................... 12-23 12-3: .............. 12-43 12-4: 12-43 12-5: ..................... 12-45 12-6: ..... 12-45 12-7: ........ 12-47 12-8: .. ............................................................................................................................... 12-47 12-9: .. 2553 - 2558 ................................................................................................... 12-48 12-10: .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 12-51 12-11: FTA 6 .. 2553 ............................................................................................................... 12-53 12-12: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................... 12-55

XXXIII

() 12-13: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ....................................... 12-56 12-14: LDCS .................................................................................................. 12-59 13-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 13-23 13-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................... 13-27 13-3: .. 2548 2552 ....................................................................................................................... 13-52 13-4: .. 2553-2563 ..................................................................................................... 13-53 13-5: .. 2548 2552 ....................................................................................................................... 13-54 13-6: .. 2553-2563 .............................................................................................................. 13-54 13-7: .. 2548-2552 ...... ............................................................................................................................... 13-61 13-8: .. 2553-2563 .............................................................................................................. 13-61 13-9: .. 2549-2553 ............................................................................................................................... 13-62 13-10: .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 13-63 13-11: .. 2553-2563 .............................................................................................................. 13-64 13-12: FTA 6 .. 2553 ............................................................................................................... 13-66 13-13: FTA 6 .. 2553 ...................................................................................... 13-67

XXXIV

() 13-14: FTA 6 .. 2553 ................................................................................... 13-68 13-15: FTA 10 6 .. 2553 ...................................................................................... 13-69 13-16: FTA 10 6 .. 2553........................................................................ 13-70 14-1: RCA .. 2548-2552 .............................................................................................................. 14-15 14-2: .. 2548-2552 .................................................................................... 14-16 14-3: FTA 6 .. 2553 ............................................................................................................... 14-25 14-4: FTA 6 .. 2553 .................................................. 14-27 14-5: FTA 10 6 .. 2553....................................................... 14-28 14-6: .... 14-30 15-1: ................................................... 15-4 15-2: .................................... 15-15 15-3: Productivity .. 2551-2554 ................................................................... 15-36 15-4: .. 2549-2553 ....... ............................................................................................................................... 15-37 15-5: .. 2550 2553 ....................................................................................................................... 15-39 15-6: .. 2551 ....... ............................................................................................................................... 15-53

XXXV

() 16-1: (/)........................................................................... 16-43 16-2: AEC Blueprint 16-50 16-3: ........................ 16-54 16-4: ...... ............................................................................................................................... 16-57 16-5: ................................................................................ 16-60

1

ABMI ACFTA ACIA ACU ADB AEC AEM AFAS AFCC AFMM AFSIS AFTA AIA AIFS ASA ASC ASCU* Asian Bond Markets Initiative ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement Asian Currency Unit Asian Development Bank ASEAN Economic Community ASEAN Economic Minister ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services ASEAN Multi-Sectoral Framework on Climate Change: Agriculture and Forestry towards Food Security ASEAN Finance Ministerial Meeting ASEAN Food Security Information System Project ASEAN Free Trade Area Framework Agreement on the ASEAN Investment Area ASEAN Integrated Food Security ASEAN Swap Arrangement ASEAN Security Community -

ASEAN Surveillance Coordination Unit

2

ASEAN ASTSU* ATIGA AUN BOI BOT CAGR CEPT CGIF CIMM CLMV CUSFTA EU FDI FTA GAP-CC* GCC GDP

Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN Surveillance Technical Support Unit ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement ASEAN University Network The Board of Investment of Thailand Bank of Thailand Compound Annual Growth Rate Common Effective Preferential Tariff Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam Canada-US Free Trade Agreement European Union Foreign Direct Investment Free Trade Agreement ASEAN-German Programme on Response to Climate Change: Agriculture, Forestry and related Sectors Gulf Cooperation Council Gross Domestic Product ( )

3

GNP GSP IMF JTEPA LDCs MFN MFSO MRA MRLs NAFTA NSW NT PIS RCA Index SADC SC SMEs SPA-FS SWeL

Gross National Product Generalized System of Preferences International Monetary Fund Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement Least Developed Countries Most-Favored-Nation Treatment Macroeconomic and Finance Surveillance Office ASEAN Mutual Recognition Arrangement Maximum Residue Limits National Single Window System National Treatment Priority Integration Sectors Reveal Competitive Advantage Index Southern African Development Community Self-Certification Small and Medium Enterprises Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security Single-Window e-Logistics

-

MERCOSUR Mercado Comn del Sur

North American Free Trade Agreement

4

TAFTA TIFTA WTO

Thailand-Australia Free Trade Agreement Thailand-India Free Trade Agreement World Trade Organization

- -

: *

1-1

1 1.1. ( ) ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) .. 2558 ( ) (e-ASEAN ) (- SMEs) ( FTA ) AEC () 10 () ( ) ( ) FTA ASEAN +1 +3 +6 9 3 ( ) 6 ( ) AEC ( AEC /) 10 () ( ) ( CLMV: AEC Least Developed Countries (LDCs) () (

1-2

) FTA ASEAN +1 +3 +6 () AEC

1.2. 1) AEC

2)

3)

1.3. 1) AEC AEC 1) 2)

2)

3)

1-3

5 5 4) // / 5) / AEC 80 AEC 120

5)

6)

7)

8)

9)

10)

1-4

11) 12) 300 13)

1.4. 1) 2) 3) 4)

2-1

2 2 (1) (European Union)1 (2)

2.1. 1 3 .. 2558 1

European Union 27 (EU27) 27 (Austria) (Belgium) (Bulgaria) (Cyprus) (Czech Republic) (Denmark) (Estonia) (Finland) (France) (Germany) (Greece) (Hungary) (Ireland) (Italy) (Latvia) (Lithuania) (Luxembourg) (Malta) (Netherland) (Poland) (Portugal) (Romania) (Slovakia) (Slovania) (Spain) (Sweden) (United Kingdom)

2-2

2-1 2-2 2-1: EU TimelineECSC, EEC and Eurato m merged Acces sion o f Denmark, Ireland and the UK Schuman Declaration Acces s ion of Greece Single Euro pean Market enters into force. Acces sion o f Bulgaria and Ro mania (EU27)

the Ams terdam Treaty enters into fo rce. Acces sion o f ten co untries (EU25); s igning of Constitution The euro replaces 12 national currencies

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Es tablishing the Euro pean Econo mic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) the Six countries s ign the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Co al and Steel Co mmunity (ECSC)

Maas tricht Treaty The European Union is born es tablishment o f the European Central Bank. Acces sion of Portugal and Spain; flag adopted the Schengen Agreement comes into force Acces sion of Austria, Finland and Sweden (EU15) Lis bon Treaty abolishes three pillars

: ()

2-2: ASEAN TimelineASEAN es tablishes the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Cambodia joins ASEAN Vietnam joins ASEAN Laos and Myanmar join ASEAN Current AEC

Five original member countries es tablish ASEAN in Bangkok

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

Brunei joins ASEAN Firs t ASEAN Summit in Bali, Indonesia

ASEAN s igns Charter Firs t meeting of ASEAN+3 First meeting of ASEAN+6 Set up Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)

First ASEAN-China Summit

: ()

2-3

2-1 2-2 2 2-1 2-1: Community Method Intergovernmental Method ASEAN Security Community (ASC), ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) ASEAN SocioCultural Community (ASCC)

(European Commission) (Council of Ministers) (European Parliament) Asian Development Bank (ADB)

2-4

European Monetary Union Asian Currency Unit (ACU) European Parliament

: ()

European Parliament

2-5

.. 2558

2.2. 4 (1) (2) (Intra-regional Trade Effect) (3) (Inter-regional Trade Effect) 3 (4) 2.2.1.

2-6

North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (Caliendo and Parro, 2009) Roland-Horst et al. (1992) 2 3 (Gross Domestic Product: GDP) 10 (Gross National Product: GNP) (Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 1967) 8.5 GDP (Cox and Harris, 1985) (Copenhagen Economics and Francois, 2007) 7 0.15 GDP (Balassa, 1975) (Southern Common Market) Mercosur 4 (Monteagudo and Watanuki, 2001) Flores (1997) 2 GDP Mercosur Mercosur 600 (Hinojosa-Ojeida el at, 1997) (Sohn and Lee, 2006) (Trade Creation) Magee (2004), Balassa (1967, 1975), Truman (1969), Prewo (1974) Aitken (1973) ( (Trade Diversion) ) (CEECs) (Baier and Jeffrey, 2004; Wilhelmsson, 2006; Magee, 2004)

2-7

Allen et al. (1998) Single Market 2.95 2.45 Balassa (1975) (Intra-Industry Trade) (EU-South Africa FTA) GDP 4.1 GDP 0.33 (Lewis et al., 1999) 5 (Egger and Larch,2008; Baier and Jeffrey, 2007; Wang, 1992; Wang and Winter, 1994; Frankel, 1997) (Baldwin, 2003; Clausing, 1995) Forountan and Pritchet (1993) (Southern African Development Community: SADC) 2 1970 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) NAFTA Clausing (1995) Soloaga and Winters (1999) Soloaga and Winters (1999) .. 2530 2538 0.5 30 Sohn and Lee (2010) Nogues and Quintanilla (1993) Naya and Plummer (1991) 10

2-8

- (The Heckscher-Ohlin Model) (Factor Abundant) (Comparative Advantage) Mercosur (Yeats, 1997) (Trade Diversion) Fukao et al. (2002) 1990 NAFTA Cuyvers (1995) EFTA 3 ASEAN (Single Market) (Allen et al., 1996) (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) (Monge-Naranjo, 2002; Merette et al., 2008) (FDI Inflows) (Investment Diversion) (Cardamone and Scoppola, 2007; Franko, 1970; Pelkmans, 1984) Blomstrm and Kokko (1997) CUSTA, NAFTA Mercosur

2-9

CUSTA () 2 NAFTA Mercosur 3 .. 2532-2536 .. 2538 25 2.2.2. 1 2 65 33 15 (Single Market) .. 2536 2-3 75 20 7 25 2-4

1

2-10

2-3: .. 2538-2552ProportionofIntra andExtraEU27Trade(19952009)100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 34.47% 34.39% 35.23% 33.88% 32.34% 34.28% 33.76% 33.08% 32.55% 32.76% 33.88% 33.84% 33.74% 34.93% 34.68%

Unit:%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 65.53% 65.61% 64.77% 66.12% 67.66% 65.72% 66.24% 66.92% 67.45% 67.24% 66.12% 66.16% 66.26% 65.07% 65.32%

IntraEU27

ExtraEU27

.. 2538-2552 : () European Commission

2-4: .. 2538-2552ProportionofIntra andExtraASEANTrade(19952009)100% 90% 80% 70% 60%74.93% 75.68% 75.11% 74.89% 75.05% 73.22% 75.52% 79.88% 78.46% 78.53% 79.01% 78.71% 78.02% 78.25% 77.60%

Unit:%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200925.07% 24.32% 24.89% 25.11% 24.95% 26.78% 24.48% 20.12% 21.54% 21.47% 20.99% 21.29% 21.98% 21.75% 22.40%

IntraASEAN

ExtraASEAN

.. 2538-2542, 2538-2545, 2538-2541 2538 2546 : () ASEAN Merchandise Trade Statistics Database

2-11

2.2.3. 2-5 .. 2538-2552 EU 25 .. 2547 .. 2552 .. 2552 4.32 65.32 (Compound Annual Growth Rate: CAGR)1 .. 2538-2552 6.25 2-6 10 .. 2546 .. 2552 3.76 24.48 .. 2538-2552 8.26

1

(CAGR)

V(t0) V(tn) (tn - t0)

.. 2001 = 12,553.11 .. 2009 = 32,490.61 .. 2001 .. 2009 12.62

2-12

2-5: .. 2538-2552IntraEU27Trade(19952009)6,000,000 Note: Share=ProportionofIntraEU27TradetoTotalEU27Trade Source:EuropeanCommission Theeuroreplaces

EU27Share 66.26% Share 65.07%

12nationalcurrencies5,000,000

EU25Share Share 66.12% 67.24%

Share 66.16%

TheAmsterdamTreaty entersintoforce EU15 European CentralBankShare 64.77% Share 66.12% Share 65.72% Share 67.66%

Share 65.32%

Unit:millionofECU/EURO

4,000,000

Share Share 66.24% 66.92%

Share 67.45%

3,000,000Share 65.53% Share 65.61%

2,000,000

CAGR=6.25%1,000,000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.. 2538-2552 : () European Commission

2-6: .. 2538-2552IntraASEANTrade(19952009)500,000.00 450,000.00 400,000.00 350,000.00

ASEAN singsCharter 1stmeeting ofASEAN+3Share 25.11% Share 24.89% Share 26.78% Share 24.95% Share 24.48%

Note: Share=ProportionofIntraASEANTradetoTotalASEANTrade Source:ASEANMerchandiseTradeStatisticsDatabase LaosandMyanmar joinsASEAN SetupChiang Mai Initiative

Unit:millionUSD

300,000.00 250,000.00 200,000.00 150,000.00 100,000.00

Vietnam joinsASEAN

Cambodia joinsASEANShare 21.47% Share 21.98% Share 21.75% Share 22.40%

Share 24.32% Share 25.07%

Share 20.12%

Share 21.54%

Share 20.99%

Share 21.29%

CAGR=8.26%50,000.00 0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.. 2538-2542, 2538-2545, 2538-2541 2538 2546 : () ASEAN Merchandise Trade Statistics Database

2-13

2.2.4. 2-7 .. 2552 2.29 34.68 .. 2538-2552 6.32 .. 2552 2 8 1.16 75.52 .. 2538-2552 6.33 2-7: .. 2538-2552ExtraEU27Trade(19952009)3,500,000

Note: Share=ProportionofExtraEU27TradetoTotalEU27Trade Source:EuropeanCommission Theeuroreplaces 12nationalcurrencies TheAmsterdamTreaty entersintoforce EU15 European CentralBankShare 35.23% Share 33.88% Share 32.34% Share 34.28% Share 33.76% Share 33.08% Share 32.55%

EU27Share 33.74% Share 34.93%

3,000,000

EU25Share 33.88% Share 32.76%

Share 33.84%

Unit:millionofECU/EURO

2,500,000

Share 34.68%

2,000,000

1,500,000Share 34.47%

Share 34.39%

1,000,000

CAGR=6.32%500,000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.. 2538-2552 : () European Commission

2-14

2-8: .. 2538-2552ExtraASEANTrade(19952009)1,400,000.00

ASEAN singsCharter 1stmeeting ofASEAN+3Share 74.89% Share 75.11% Share 75.05% Share 73.22% Share 75.52%

Note: Share=ProportionofExtraASEANTradetoTotalASEANTrade Source:ASEANMerchandiseTradeStatisticsDatabase LaosandMyanmar joinsASEAN Vietnam joinsASEAN SetupChiang Mai Initiative

1,200,000.00

1,000,000.00

Unit:millionUSD

Cambodia joinsASEANShare 78.53% Share 78.02% Share 78.25% Share 77.60% Share 74.93%

Share 75.68%

800,000.00Share 79.88% Share 78.46% Share 78.71%

600,000.00

Share 79.01%

400,000.00

CAGR=6.33%

200,000.00

0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.. 2538-1999, 2538-2545, 2538-2541 2538 2546 : () ASEAN Merchandise Trade Statistics Database

2.2.5. .. 2522 2552 15 (EU 15)1 GDP (FDI) GDP FDI .. 2558

1

EU 15 (Austria) (Belgium) (Denmark) (Finland) (France) (Germany) (Greece) (Ireland) (Italy) (Luxembourg) (Netherland) (Portugal) (Spain) (Sweden) (United Kingdom) EU 15 EU 15 EU 25 EU 27

2-15

2.2.5.1. (GDP) GDP GDP 1999 GDP GDP 8 21 EU 15 16 .. 2552 EU 15 GDP 15 EU 15 .. 2522 2552 5.37 2-9 2-9: GDP EU 15 .. 2522-2552EuropeanUnion15:GrossDomesticProduct18,000.00 16,000.00

EU15 Schengen Agreement

14,000.00

EurocurrencyUnit:billionUSD

12,000.00

SingleMarket10,000.00 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

CAGR (19792009) =5.37%

: () World Bank

GDP 1994 AFTA Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme AFTA GDP

2-16

GDP AFTA 1997 GDP .. 2552 GDP 1.24 .. 2522-2552 3.62 2-10 2-10: GDP .. 2522-2552Thailand:GrossDomesticProduct200,000.00 180,000.00 160,000.00 140,000.00

AEC AFTA

Unit:millionUSD

120,000.00 100,000.00 80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 20,000.00

CAGR (19792009) =3.62%

: GDP .. 2554-2557 International Monetary Fund GDP .. 2558-2560 2554-2557 0.6 : () World Bank

EU 15 EU 15

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2-17

2.2.5.2. EU15 .. 2540 .. 2542 EU 15 EU 15 .. 2552 EU 15 4.05 .. 2522-2552 15.11 2-11 2-11: EU 15 .. 2522-2552EuropeanUnion15:Export800,000.00

Schengen Agreement700,000.00 600,000.00Unit:millionUSD

EU15 Eurocurrency SingleMarket

500,000.00 400,000.00 300,000.00 200,000.00 100,000.00 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

CAGR (19792009) =15.11%

: () World Bank

.. 2552 8.49 .. 2522-2552 7.51

2-18

2-12 2-12: .. 2522-2552Thailand:Export140,000.00

AEC

AFTA120,000.00 100,000.00Unit:millionUSD

80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 20,000.00

CAGR (19792009) =7.51%

: .. 2554-2560 CAGR (.. 2522-2552) : () World Bank

2.2.5.3. AEC AEC

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2-19

2-13: EU 15 .. 2522-2552EuropeanUnion15:ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)1,200,000.00

EU151,000,000.00

Eurocurrency Schengen Agreement

800,000.00Unit:millionUSD

SingleMarket600,000.00

400,000.00

200,000.00

CAGR (19792009) =10.88%

: () World Bank

FDI EU 15 FDI EU 15 EU 15 .. 2552 EU 15 4.02 .. 2522-2552 10.88 2-13

2-20

2-14: .. 2522-2552Thailand:ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)14,000.00

AEC

AFTA12,000.00 10,000.00 Unit:millionUSD 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CAGR (19792009) =15.79%

: FDI .. 2554-2560 CAGR (.. 2522-2552) : () World Bank

FDI .. 2551-2552 .. 2552 4.50 .. 2522-2552 15.79 FDI AFTA (Single Market) FDI .. 2558

3-1

3 9 7 .. 2546 (Declaration of ASEAN Concord II Bali Concord II) .. 2563 3 (ASEAN Community) 2 (Political and Security Pillar) (Socio-Cultural Pillar) 11 .. 2548 .. 2563 5 .. 2558 12 .. 2550 .. 2558 (AEC Blueprint) 13 .. 2550 (ASEAN Charter) .. 2558 (Intergovernmental Organization) 15 .. 2551

3-2

3-1:

:

.. 2558 Doing Business (World Bank) Doing Business .. 2554 183 9 (Starting a Business) (Dealing with Construction Permits) (Registering Property) (Getting Credit) (Protecting Investors) (Paying Taxes) (Trading Across Borders) (Enforcing Contracts) (Closing a Business) 3-2

3-3

.. 2553 .. 2553 3-2: LaoPDR Philippines Cambodia Indonesia Brunei Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Singapore 0 1 1 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 23 21 16 19 78 88 115 121 117 112 DB2010Rank DB2011Rank 146 148 145 147 169 171

: : Doing Business 2011, World Bank

.. 2554 (Starting a Business), (Dealing with Construction Permits) (Getting Credit) (Starting a Business), (Paying Taxes) (Trading across Borders) 3-3 9 3-4 (Starting a Business) (Getting Credit) (Paying Taxes)

3-4

(Registering Property) 3-3: 10

: Doing Business 2011, World Bank

3-4: Topic Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Incomecategory High Low Lowermiddle GNIpercapita(US$) 26,325 650 2,230 Population(m) 0.4 14.8 230.0 Easeofdoingbusiness(rank) 112 147 121 Startingabusiness 133* 170 155* Dealingwithconstructionpermits 74 146 60 Registeringproperty 183 117 98 Gettingcredit 116 89 116 Protectinginvestors 120 74 44 Payingtaxes 22* 57 130* Tradingacrossborders 52 118 47* Enforcingcontracts 159 142 154 Closingabusiness 42 183 142 Note: *reformsmakingiteasiertodobusiness **reformsmakingitmoredifficulttodobusiness LaoPDR Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Low Uppermiddle Lowermiddle High Lowermiddle Lowermiddle 880 7,230 1,790 37,220 3,760 1,010 6.3 27.5 92.0 5.0 67.8 87.3 171 21 148 1 19 78 93 113* 156* 4 95 100* 115 108 156** 2 12 62* 163 60* 102 15 19** 43 152 1 128 6 72 15* 182 4 132 2 12 173 116* 23 124 4 91* 124 170 37 61* 1 12 63 110 59 118 13 25 31 183 55 153 2 46 124

: Doing Business 2011, World Bank

3-5

3 139 / ( 26) ( 28) 38 2 .. 2552-2553 ( 23) ( 23) ( 24) ( 41) ( 34) 3-5 3-5: GlobalCompetitivenessIndex20102011RankingsCambodia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Brunei Malaysia Singapore 0 3 20 40 60 80 100 120 28 26 38 44 59 85 109

: : Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, World Economic Forum

(AEC Blueprint) (Strategic Schedule) (AEC Scorecard)

3-6

AEC Blueprint 1) / 2) 3) / AEC Scorecard 2 1) AEC Scorecard 2) AEC Strategic Schedule AEC Scorecard 4 AEC Blueprint 1) 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2 2) 6 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 3) 2 (1) (2)

3-7

4) 2 (1) (2) AEC Scorecard 4 .. 2551-2552, .. 2553 2554, .. 2555-2556 .. 2557-2558 AEC Scorecard 2010-20111 / 3 (ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community: ASCC)2 ASCC 6 1) (Human Development) 2) (Social Welfare and Protection) 3) (Social Justice and Rights) 4) (Environmental Sustainability) 5) (Building an ASEAN Identity) 6) (Narrowing the Development Gap) AEC 7 (3.1) (3.2) (3.3) (3.4) (3.5) (3.6) (3.7) (3.8)

1

AEC Scorecard 3 .. 2554 1 .. 2553 31 .. 2554 2 (ASEAN Community) 3 (ASEAN Security Community: ASC) (ASEAN Economic Community: AEC) (ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community: ASCC)

3-8

3.1. 3.1.1. (ASEAN Free Trade Area: AFTA) 2 1) 8,287 0 1 .. 2553 2) 4 13 5 1 .. 2553 AFTA 6 0 1 .. 2553 CLMV 0 .. 2558 6 5 1 .. 2553 CLMV 5 1 .. 2558 3-6 3 3-1 3-6:

:

3-9

3-1: ( ) ( )

( ) 25 .. 2558 3040 5-10 .. 2558 ( ) / ( ) / ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 40 20 .. 2553 6 ( ) ( ) 40 35 .. 2558

3-10

.. 2558

MOU 367,000

: ()

(AEM Retreat) 13 .. 2550 (CEPT) .. 2558 (AFTA Council) 21 CEPT (ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement: ATIGA) ATIGA 26 .. 2552 ATIGA 17 .. 2553 3.1.2. ATIGA 3-2 AEC Scorecard 2010 2011

3-11

3-2: : ()

1 .. 2551, 2552 2553 1 .. 2553, 2554 2555 1 2556, 2557 2558 2561

3.1.3. 40 (Revised PSR) .. 2552 1 .. 2553 19 .. 2553 MOU Self-Certification (SC) 42 .. 2553 1 .. 2553 3 SC .. 2554 .. 2555

3-12

190 .. 2550 1 .. 2555 3.1.4. AEC Blueprint (ASEAN Single Window) e-Logistics ASEAN Single Window e-Logistics - 25,000 40 60-70 (Single-Window e-Logistics: SWeL) 10:1 44 70 /

3-13

- -- National Single Window System (NSW) NSW e-Logistics 0.5 - 28,500 - 8-10 1-3 ASEAN e-Customs ASEAN Single Window .. 2558

3.2. (ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services: AFAS) .. 2538 (AEC Blueprint) (Market Access) (National Treatment: NT) 12 128 (WTO) 12 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11)

3-14

12) 11 AEC Blueprint 1) / .. 2553 4 (Priority Integration Sectors: PIS) e-ASEAN ( ) 70 2) / .. 2556 .. 2553 51 2 .. 2556 70 1 3) / .. 2558 .. 2553 51 3 .. 2558 70 ,

3-15

AFAS 8 ( .. 2554) 2 (Horizontal Commitment) (Specific Commitment) (Mode of Supply) 4 Mode 1: Cross-Border Mode 2: Consumption Abroad Mode 3: Commercial Presence Mode 4: Movement of Natural Persons Medical Care () Health

3-16

Care () Aging Care () Beauty Care ( ) .. 2558 (ASEAN Mutual Recognition Arrangement: MRA) MRA 7

3.3. (Framework Agreement on the ASEAN Investment Area: AIA) .. 2541 (AEC Blueprint) (ASEAN Economic Minister: AEM) 39 23 .. 2550 AIA (ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement: ACIA) (ASEAN Investment Guarantee Agreement: AIGA) ACIA

3-17

ACIA 4 1) 2) 3) 4) (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) (Portfolio Investment) 5 4 / (National Treatment: NT) (Most-Favored-Nation Treatment: MFN) / 3-7 ( 31) ( 30) ( 28) ( 24) ( 17) ( 9) ( 6) ( 3) 10

3-18

3-7: .. 2550-2552Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ExtraASEAN IntraASEAN

: () www.aseansec.org

.. 2550-2552 5,886 (5,118 ) (4,477 ) (58,867 ) (21,381 ) (20,238 )

3-19

3-8: .. 2550-2552US$million 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 ExtraASEAN 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 IntraASEAN

: () www.aseansec.org

10 .. 2558

3-20

3-9: 10 .. 2550-2552

: () www.aseansec.org

3.4. (ASEAN Finance Ministerial Meeting: AFMM) 28 - 1 .. 2540 2 1) (Ministerial Understanding on ASEAN Cooperation in Finance) 2) (ASEAN Agreement on Custom)

3-21

1) 2) (ASEAN Swap Arrangement: ASA) 3) 4) 5) 6) (Green Lane System) AFTA .. 2540 "" (ASEAN Surveillance Mechanism) (International Monetary Fund: IMF) ASEAN Surveillance Technical Support Unit (ASTSU) ASEAN Surveillance Coordination Unit (ASCU) 6 ..2543 "" (Chiang Mai Initiative) 2 1) 2)

3-22

(Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation: CMIM) CMIM 24 .. 2553 CMIM +3 CMIM ASEAN +3 ( ) (Regional Financing Arrangement) CMIM (1) CMIM 120 20 24 ASEAN+3 () 80 CMIM 96 CMIM 4.77 (2) CMIM (Commitment Letter) (Currency Swap) (Requesting Country) (Providing Countries)

3-23

(3) 5 ( ) 2.5 5 ( ) 5 1 0.5 (IMF Programme) 20 (4) (Maturity) CMIM 2 3 (Swap) 90 (IMF) swap 7 ( 2 ) IMF 20 3 ( 1 ) (5) (Coordinating Countries) 2

3-24

CMIM (Asian Bond Markets Initiative: ABMI) .. 2548 .. 2553 ASEAN+3 (ADB) (Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility: CGIF) ABMI CGIF Trust Fund ADB ASEAN+3 ADB 700 200 100 10 70 ADB 130 CGIF ASEAN+3 Local Credit Rating Investment grade BBB CGIF CGIF CGIF 1 1 CGIF 700 700 CGIF CGIF 20 CGIF 140 CGIF CGIF CGIF AAA 3

3-25

AFAS 5 5 .. 2558 5 100 50 5 28 .. 2553 (Macroeconomic and Finance Surveillance Office: MFSO) MFSO .. 2558

3.5. AEC Blueprint

1)

3-26

2) (ASEAN University Network: AUN) ( .. 2552) ( .. 2553 .. 2558) MRA 7

3-27

(Brain Drain) (Ageing Society)

3.6. 12 3-3:

3-28

: () www.aseansec.org

Roadmap Single Window, Logistics 14 27 1 .. 2552 .. 2554-2558 (Visa Exemption) Single Visa

3-29

3.7. .. 2558 (ASEAN Phytosanitary Guidelines for the Importation of Dendrobium Cut Flowers) ( Maximum Residue Limits: MRLs) 9 (Pesticides) 13 (MRLs) (ASEAN Chain of Custody Guidelines for Legal Timber and Sustainable Timber) Roadmap .. 2563 (Roadmap towards an HPAI-Free ASEAN Community by 2020) (ASEAN Integrated Food Security (AIFS) Framework) (Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security: SPA-FS) ASEAN Multi-Sectoral Framework on Climate Change: Agriculture and Forestry towards Food Security (AFCC) ASEAN-German Programme on Response to Climate Change: Agriculture, Forestry and related Sectors (GAP-CC) AFCC (ASEAN Food Security Information System Project: AFSIS) 2 SPS Plan of Action 2011-2012 Technical Working Group 3

3-30

3.8. .. 2558

4-1

4 2 / 10 5

4.1. 3 1 4.1.1. 4.1.1.1. .. 2552 8.14 7.25 6.51 5.72 1

(Indonesia) (Malaysia) (Philippines) (Singapore) (Viet Nam) (Cambodia) (Laos) (Myanmar) (Brunei) CLMB CLMB ( 13.00) 10

4-2

-17.81 -22.70 1

4-1: MERCHANDISE TRADE Merchandise exports, f.o.b. (million US$) Merchandise imports, c.i.f. (million US$) Share in world total exports Key Exported Commodity 1. Manufactures 2. Fuels and mining products 3. Agricultural products By main destination 1. European 27 2. United States of America 3. Japan 4. Republic of Korea 5. Australia Value 2552 813,527 725,268 2552 6.51% 2552 65.78% 18.18% 12.27% 2552 13.55% 12.36% 10.09% 4.41% 4.03% Share in world total imports Key Imported Commodity 1. Manufactures 2. Fuels and mining products 3. Agricultural products By main origin 1. Japan 2. European 27 3. United States of America 4. Republic of Korea 5. Thailand Annual Change 2551 14.36% 20.99% 2552 -17.81% -22.70% 2552 5.72% 2552 68.60% 20.96% 7.60% 2552 12.15% 10.51% 8.13% 6.19% 4.91%

: () WTO Statistics Database International Trade Centre

5 ( 13.55) ( 12.30) ( 10.09) ( 4.41) ( 4.03) 51

4-3

( 12.15) ( 10.51) ( 8.13) ( 6.19) ( 4.91) 1 .. 2552 3.25 .. 2544-2552 12.62 .. 2548-2552 ( 25.24) ( 24.07) ( 14.98) 4-2 2.68 .. 2544-2552 11.91 .. 2548-2552 ( 34.73) ( 24.12) ( 15.80)

1

9 ()

4-4

4-1: .. 2544-2552Thailand'sExporttoASEAN(20012009)45,000.00

Source:InternationalTradeCentre40,000.00

39,655.84 1,317.60 1,754.78

CAGR(20012009) =12.62% Thailand's export toASEAN

35,000.00

32,894.24 962.19 1,313.71 1,356.85 2,938.40 3,959.87

2,014.03 3,462.06

32,490.61 1,544.67 1,642.62

30,000.00

27,231.06 23,968.59 761.78 1,022.08 1,251.69 2,594.37 3,092.04 3,335.23 3,960.29 3,209.94

4,961.78

1,580.54 3,022.02

BruneiDarussalam Myanmar LaoPeople'sDemocraticRepublic Cambodia

unit:millionUSD

25,000.00 21,177.86 20,000.00 16,543.30 12,553.11 13,559.66 692.61 1,622.99 1,265.59 2,275.29 7,004.91 5,871.73 5,000.00 5,245.14 5,549.36 3,876.72 2003 5,297.01 5,684.91 7,458.89 768.88 914.99 2,050.07 2,357.35

6,252.58 4,858.75

4,678.33

Philippines VietNam

722.60 1,828.64 1,872.76

4,667.26 9,987.65 9,580.26 7,574.14

Indonesia Malaysia Singapore

15,000.00

10,000.00

467.45 1,155.75 797.55 1,362.20

515.70 1,274.07 946.40 1,678.43

8,425.87

6,664.97

7,833.10

9,782.91

7,663.65

2,722.70 2001

2,833.12 2002

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

: () International Trade Centre

4-5

4-2: .. 2548-2552ProportionofThailand'sExporttoASEAN(20052009)Cambodia 4.84% LaoPeople's DemocraticRepublic 4.46% Myanmar 3.77% BruneiDarussalam 0.31%

Philippines 9.57% VietNam 12.76%

Indonesia 14.98% Malaysia 25.24%

Singapore 24.07%

Source:InternationalTradeCentre

: () International Trade Centre

4-6

4-3: .. 2544-2552

Thailand'sImportfromASEAN(20012009)35,000.00 32,195.66

Source:InternationalTradeCentre30,000.00 27,076.07 25,149.48 25,000.00 22,992.43 499.81