Advocacy in the 2018 State Election
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Advocacy in the 2018 State Election
Agenda1. South Australian State Election History
2. Boundaries Redistribution
3. Council Districts and their Relative State Electorates
4. SA Best and Key Issues of the Election
5. What does the future hold?
1997 South Australian State Election
Party Seats 2PP
Liberal 23 51.5%
Labor 21 48.5%
Independents 3
Regional South Australia Metropolitan South Australia
The Liberal Government, led by Premier John Olsen, was returned to Government defeating Mike Rann’s Labor. The Liberals won only 23 seats, but were able to form a minority government by gaining the support of the Nationals MP and two conservative Independent MPs.
2002 South Australian State Election
Regional South Australia Metropolitan South Australia
Party Seats 2PP
Liberal 20 50.9%
Labor 23 49.1%
Independents 4
Labor formed minority government after signing an agreement with cross bencher Peter Lewis to obtain 24 seats. They were later joined in cabinet by a National and an Independent MP.
2006 South Australian State Election
Party Seats 2PP
Liberal 15 43.2%
Labor 28 56.8%
Independents 4
Regional South Australia Metropolitan South Australia
Mike Rann’s Labor Government formed majority government, by a landslide, with 28 seats.
2010 South Australian State Election
Party Seats 2PP
Liberal 18 51.6%
Labor 26 48.4%
Independents 3
Regional South Australia Metropolitan South Australia
Mike Rann’s Labor Government was elected to a third four-year term over the Liberal Party, led by Isobel Redmond, forming a majority government with 26 seats.
2014 South Australian State Election
Party Seats 2PP
Liberal 22 53%
Labor 23 47%
Independents 2
Regional South Australia Metropolitan South Australia
The election resulted in a hung parliament and Labor forming a minority government with the support of key crossbenchers.
No change since 1997 Changed once since 1997
Changed more than once since 1997
Badcoe King Black Adelaide
Bragg Lee Chaffey Gibson
Cheltenham Morphett Colton Hammond *
Croyon Narrunga Dunstan Hartley
Davenport Playford Frome Hurtle Vale *
Elder Port Adelaide Light
Elizabeth Ramsay Mawson
Enfield Reynell MacKillop
Finniss Schubert Morialta
Flinders Stuart Mt Gambier
Florey Taylor Newland
Giles Torrens Waite *
Heysen Unley
Kaurna West Torrens
Kavel Wright
SA Seats
Boundaries Redistribution
• Catalyst for such drastic redistributions is the fact that the Liberals received the greatest 2PP vote in the 2010 and 2014 but could not form government. The redistributions have resulted in 398,719 voters finding themselves in different electorates.
What changed?
• The boundary changes have removed the benefit of incumbency in several seats (i.e. previously safe seats have become marginal).
What does it mean?
• The four marginal Labor seats of Colton, Newland, Elder and Mawson have become notionally Liberal and the previously safe Labor seat of Napier (now King) is now the party’s most marginal seat.
Which seats are most affected?
Adelaide Hills Council
Bragg Heysen Kavel Morialta Schubert
Current Member
Vickie Chapman Isobel Redmond Mark Goldsworthy
John Gardner Stephen Knoll
2016 Redistribution
16.6 LIB (very safe)
13.2 LIB (safe) 14.1 LIB (safe) 11.5 LIB (safe) 12.4 LIB (safe)
Candidates
Liberal Vickie Chapman Josh Teague Dan Cregan John Gardner Stephen Knoll
Labor TBA TBA TBA Peter Field TBA
SA Best TBA John Illingworth TBA TBA TBA
Two long-term MP’s retiring, putting relatively safe Liberal seats at risk of losing to a new SA Best candidate (even playing field)
The City of Burnside
Adelaide Bragg Heysen Hartley Morialta Dunstan
Current Member
Rachel Sanderson
Vickie Chapman
Isobel Redmond
Vincent Tarzia
John Gardner Steven Marshall
2016 Redistribution
2.0 LIB (marginal)
16.6 LIB (very safe)
13.2 LIB (safe)
2.3 LIB (marginal)
11.5 LIB (safe)
3.9 LIB (marginal)
Candidates
Liberal Rachel Sanderson
Vickie Chapman
Josh Teague Vincent Tarzia
John Gardner Steven Marshall
Labor Jo Chapley TBA TBA TBA Peter Field Matt Loader
SA Best TBA TBA John Illingworth
Nick Xenophon
TBA TBA
Hartley Liberal marginal – intense battle between Liberal and SA Best’s leader Nick Xenophon
City of Onkaparinga Davenport Finniss Hurtle Vale Heysen Kaurna Mawson Black Reynell
Current Member
Sam Duluk Michael Pengilly
Natalie Cook
Isobel Redmond
Chris Picton
Leon Bignell Corey Wingard
Katherine Hildyard
2016 Redistribution
8.9 LIB (safe)
13.7 LIB (safe)
1.7 ALP (marginal)
13.2 LIB (safe)
8.5 ALP (safe)
3.2 LIB (marginal)
2.5 LIB (marginal)
9.8 ALP (safe)
Candidates
Liberal Steve Murray
David Basham
Aaron Duff Josh Teague
Chris Picton
Andy Gilfillan
Corey Wingard
TBA
Labor TBA TBA Natalie Cook
TBA TBA Leon Bignell Randall Wilson
Katherine Hildyard
SA Best TBA TBA TBA John Illingworth
TBA Hazel Wainwright
TBA TBA
City of Salisbury
Ramsay Wright Elizabeth Taylor
Current Member
Zoe Bettison Jennifer Rankine
Lee Odenwalder
Leesa Vlahos
2016 Redistribution
17.4 ALP (very safe)
4.5 ALP (marginal)
9.9 ALP (safe)
8.8 ALP (safe)
Candidates
Liberal TBA Luigi Mesisca TBA TBA
Labor Zoe Bettison Blair Boyer Lee Odenwalder
Jon Gee
SA Best TBA TBA TBA TBA
City of Unley
Fierce contest to occur in Waite between SA Best, Independent and Liberal. With outgoing long-term MP Stephanie Key, there will be a battle for Labor to retain the seat.
Unley Waite Badcoe
Current Member
David Pisoni Martin Hamilton-Smith
Stephanie Key
2016 Redistribution
9.2 LIB (safe) 10.4 LIB (safe) 4.2 ALP (marginal)
Candidates
Liberal David Pisoni Sam Duluk Lachlan Clyne
Labor TBA TBA Jayne Stinson
SA Best TBA Graham Davies TBA
Independent NA Martin Hamilton-Smith
NA
City of Victor Harbour, District Council of Yankalilla and Kangaroo Island Council
Finniss
Current Member Michael Pengilly
2016 Redistribution 13.7 LIB (safe)
Candidates
Liberal David Basham
Labor TBA
SA Best TBA
Chaffey Schubert Hammond Stuart
Current Member
Michael Pengilly Stephen Knoll Adrian Pederick Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
2016 Redistribution
13.7 LIB (safe) 12.4 LIB (safe) 16.3 LIB (very safe)
20.1 LIB (very safe)
Candidates
Liberal David Basham Stephen Knoll Adrian Pederick Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
Labor TBA TBA TBA TBA
SA Best TBA TBA Kelly Gladigau TBA
Mid Murray Council
Port Pirie Regional Council
Likely to be a target for SA Best and a three way contest between Brock, Libs and SA Best
Frome
Current Member Geoff Brock
2016 Redistribution 10.5 LIB (safe)
Candidates
Liberal Kendall Jackson
Labor TBA
SA Best TBA
Independent Geoff Brock
Tatiara District Council
With divisive issues in the community such as fracking, SA Best will likely enter on a campaign platform that contrast the Liberals/provides a better alternative.
MacKIllop
Current Member Mitch Williams
2016 Redistribution 26.7 LIB (very safe)
Candidates
Liberal Nick McBride
Labor TBA
SA Best TBA
District Council of Mt Remarkable and Regional Council of Goyder
Stuart
Current Member Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
2016 Redistribution 20.1 LIB (very safe)
Candidates
Liberal Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
Labor TBA
SA Best TBA
District Council of Streaky Bay and Wudinna District Council
Very safe Liberal strong hold – unlikely to receive much attention from either Labor or Liberal
Flinders
Current Member Peter Treloar
2016 Redistribution 28.7 LIB (very safe)
Candidates
Liberal Peter Treloar
Labor TBA
SA Best TBA
Northern Areas Council
SA Best likely to target Frome as it has a history of going between liberal and Independents
Frome Stuart
Current Member Geoff Brock Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
2016 Redistribution
10.5 LIB (safe) 20.1 LIB (very safe)
Candidates
Liberal Kendall Jackson Dan Van Holst Pellekaan
Labor TBA TBA
SA Best TBA TBA
Central issues of the election
Energy Plans
Bank Tax
Gas Fracking
Government Transparency and Accountability
Attracting Investment
Population Growth
Unemployment
Cost of Living
SA Best issues and how they form their positions
The popularity of SA Best in their federal election primary vote established that the election will be partly fought on policy issues in SA Best hotspots, along with Xenophon’s signature policy platforms - gaming, defence industries, local jobs, primary production, trade practices.
SA Best’s policy platform will be based around key issues of concern in their targeted seats, including: Fracking Mining (Xenophon has had a history of putting primary production before mining
development) Water sustainability Local jobs and content
Generally, SA Best will pick issues that present them as putting SA businesses first.
…cont
SA Best Issues and how they form their positions
…cont
Ensuring responsible, transparent and accountable government;
Making our essential services accountable, reliable and affordable;
Ensuring efficient delivery of health and community services;
Establish a new Carbon Emissions Trading scheme;
Revitalising our economy and give our kids a solid future; and
Making SA the most desirable place in Australia to live and work.
Essential Poll conducted in December 2016, compared the 2014 state election results:
Galaxy Poll was conducted in June 2017 after the release of the 2017-18 State Budget, from a sample of 885 voters:
Current Polling
ELECTION MARCH 2014 (%) OCT – DEC 2016 (%)First Preference Vote Liberal 44.8 32Labor 35.8 35Greens 8.7 7Nick Xenophon Team N/A 17Other/Independent 10.7 8Two-Party Preferred Vote Liberal 53 49Labor 47 51
PARTY JUNE 2017
Primary Vote
Liberal 34
Labor 28
Greens 6
SA Best 21
Two-Party Preferred Vote
Liberal 50
Labor 50
Current Polling
THE ADVERTISER/GALAXY POLL (%) CHANNEL 7/REACHTEL (%)
First Preference Vote
Liberal (Vincent Tarzia) 38 36.7
Labor 17 19.7
Greens 6 -
SA Best (Nick Xenophon) 35 21.7
Other/Independent 4 21.9 (undeclared)
Two-Party Preferred Vote
Liberal 47 50
SA Best 53 50
On October 10, two polls were conducted in the State seat of Hartley:
Known Unknowns
Federal Government
Election Called
Labor state government v Liberal federal
government
Power Blackout over 2018 summer
Unemployment Rate Increases
Questions?
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