1 ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter –APRIL 2014
Jan 18, 2015
1
ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter –APRIL 2014
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Gold 15
Index Page No.
Contents
Real Estate Outlook 16
2
From the Desk of the CIO
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
Dear Investors,
RBI kept the repo rate constant in its April monetary policy review. This was along the lines of general consensus amongst market participants and experts. For the monetary loosening enthusiasts, the falling inflation numbers undoubtedly present an opportunity to start cutting rates. However, it is unlikely that RBI is merely looking for a trigger of some sorts to get started on reducing interest rates. There are still three unknowns that could lead to the inflation spiking again. For one, the expectation of normal or sub-normal monsoon in 2014 will have a strong bearing on food and vegetable prices. Secondly the outcome of general elections will strongly influence the pace of economic growth. Thirdly, the continued tapering of monetary stimulus by the US Fed may start to reduce the flow of money to emerging markets through 2014.
A development connected to the third of these factors is likely increase in US interest rates (or the expectation of it) in 2015. In the face of increasing yields in US, it could be unwise to reduce interest rates in India – till such time that the India growth story is firmly back on track in the eyes of global investors, who either do not mind the lower ‘carry’ (the difference between Indian interest rates and US interest rates) or remain enthusiastic about Indian equities. RBI, being aware of the same, is more likely to wait than rush into the monetary loosening. If indeed a reforms-minded government comes to power in the centre, growth would pick up in the short term simply on account of positive sentiment. That could reduce the intensity of demands on RBI to cut rates quickly.
Interestingly enough, as current account deficit is falling consistently, global investors have taken fancy to Indian equities again. Part of this is driven by a bet on the general elections’ outcome. It is also driven by money looking for a suitable emerging market to invest into. Owing to
several global developments, this list is getting shorter by the day. India hence is temporarily the beneficiary of the adverse developments in the investment climate in Brazil, Turkey, Russia and China. For now, the capital account surplus on account of these inflows has swollen enough to warrant RBI’s intervention in keeping rupee from appreciating too much. Unlike defending a falling currency, stopping the rise of an appreciating one is not that hard. That is because such anti-appreciation intervention increases forex reserves of the central bank instead of depleting them. Hence, speculators cannot bet on the running-out-of-ammunition by the central bank.
These interventions at present are a good idea for two reasons. Firstly, the export industries that received a boost from the falling rupee last year could suddenly find themselves at the wrong end of the exchange rate if rupee appreciates quickly. That could stymie already anemic economic growth in India. Secondly, if a large part of these inflows does indeed reverse on the outcome of general elections (either through profit booking after expected outcome or worse, stop loss due to unexpected outcome), that could lead to a rapid fall in rupee then. It is prudent to build ammunition to defend a slide of rupee in such a scenario. Unlike the slow and steady appreciation that comes in good times, depreciation of currencies generally tends to be rapid and disruptive. Also unlike the appreciation, the depreciation attracts speculative interests which can worsen the fall.
Going into the election season, we remain circumspect about the outcome and its immediate effect on capital markets as well as medium term effect on the economy. For now, across asset classes, the prudent thing to do seem to be to stay invested.
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As on 25th Mar 2014
Change over last month
Change over last year
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 22055 6.0% 18.1%
S&P Nifty 6589 6.5% 17.0%
S&P 500 1865 1.0% 20.2%
Nikkei 225 14423 (2.8%) 15.0%
Debt Markets
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.79% (10 bps) 84 bps
Call Markets 8.89% 102 bps 117 bps
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps 25 bps
Commodity Markets
RICI Index 3687 0.0% (0.5%)
Gold (`/10gm) 29058 (5.2%) (1.6%)
Crude Oil ($/bbl) (As on 24th March)
106.59 (2.9%) (0.5%)
Forex
Markets
Rupee/Dollar 60.49 2.39% (10.57%)
Yen/Dollar 102.35 0.1% (7.8%)
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets
10 yr Gsec
Gold
• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper (8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark (2021 Maturity)
4
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty
S&P 500 Nikkei 225
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
`/$
6.8000
7.3000
7.8000
8.3000
8.8000
9.3000
US
Europe
Japan
Emerging economies
• The U.S. government posted a smaller budget deficit than expected in February of $193.5 billion as
receipts came in stronger than in the same period a year ago.
• Fed trims asset purchase by another US$10bn to $55bn a month.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to seasonally adjusted 3,15,000,the lowest reading since November, suggesting a strengthening in labor market conditions.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s core consumer price index rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, same as that in January & December.
• Japan’s retail sales rose 3.6% Y-O-Y in February, compared with a 4.4% gain in January.
• Japan's unemployment rate came in at a seasonally adjusted 3.6% in February, compared with 3.7% in January.
• The Indian economy can grow an annual 5.2 percent in the quarter to end-March on higher farm output growth, the chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said.
• India's HSBC manufacturing PMI grows to 52.5 in February .
• China’s industrial output rose 8.6% in the first two months of 2014 from a year earlier, missing market expectations for a 9.5% rise,
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• The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at 0.25% & unveiling no other measures to bolster a fragile Euro zone recovery.
• Greece’s major banks must raise an extra 6.4 bn Euros ($8.9 bn) in capital to make themselves strong enough to deal with the fallout from future crisis.
• British house prices rose at the slowest pace in six months in February, suggesting the housing market recovery still has a long way to run.
Economy Outlook - Domestic
• Q3FY14 GDP growth slowed down to 4.7% YoY as against
expectations of 4.8% YoY & as compared to 4.8% in the previous
quarter leading to Apr-Dec’13 growth of 4.6%. Strong growth in
Services sector contributed significantly to the growth in the
economy in the third quarter. While manufacturing growth
slumped by 1.9% in Q3FY14.
• Apr-Dec’13 GDP at Market Price remained below GDP at Factor
Cost at 4.2% as against 4.6% growth in GDP at FC. Excise duty &
Service tax collections has slowed down sharply in FY14 thus we
can expect going forward GDP at FC to remain above GDP at MP.
• Agriculture sector in Nominal term have recorded a growth of
18.5% YoY while in real terms have grown by 3.6%. Record high
production in food grains in FY14 is likely to reflect in Agriculture
sector’s growth in the next quarter.
• Nearly 90.0% of the GDP growth contribution was due to surge in
Services sector performance. Services sector growth sharply
augmented to 5 month high of 7.6% YoY as compared to 6.0% in
the previous quarter & 6.9% in corresponding quarter in last year.
• Jan’14 IIP witnessed a positive growth of 0.1% Y-o-Y after
decelerating 0.6% in Dec ’13 and after posting three months of
consecutive decline.
• IIP performance is expected to further improve in Feb’14. This
improvement is indicated by 4.4% Y-o-Y increase in Auto
production, 10.5% growth in Electricity generation and robust pace
of expansion indicated by PMI.
• Headline figure for Dec’13 & Oct’13 have been upwardly revised by
~40bps to (0.2)% Y-o-Y & (1.2)%, respectively. Revision in Dec’13 IIP
figures is mainly due to 1.3% upward revision in food products and
1.5% upward revision in textiles sector, while 3.2% sharp revision in
Basic Metals led to upward revision in Oct’13 IIP figures.
IIP
6
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13 Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
6.1
5.3 5.5
5.3
4.5 4.8
4.4 4.8 4.7
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) FY13(Q4) FY14(Q1) FY14(Q2) FY14(Q3)
Economic Outlook - Domestic
As on Feb 2014 Bank credits grew by 14.4% on a Y-o-Y basis
which is about 1.9% lower than the growth witnessed in Feb
2013. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 15.9%, vis-a-
vis 12.8% in Feb 2013.
RBI kept the key rates unchanged when it met on 1st April,2014
to review it’s first bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal. Due
to this action of the RBI, the CRR remains unchanged at 4% ,
repo is kept unchanged at 8% and MSF at 9%. The Governor
however, reduced borrowing under the Liquidity Adjustment
Facility(LAF) to 0.25% of NDTL from the current 0.50% and
increased liquidity under 7 day & 14 day repo from 0.50% to
0.75% of NDTL. RBI soothed jittery investors by stating that
further tightening in monetary policy may not be required if
inflation continues along the intended glide path.
WPI for Feb’14 slowed down sharply to 4.68% Y-o-Y from 5.05%
in Jan’14 and 6.40% in Dec’13. Food inflation contributed significantly to the headline number as it fell to 5.60% y-o-y from a peak of 13.81% in Nov ‘13.
Dec’13 WPI has been revised upwards by 22bps to 6.40% primarily due to revision in Core inflation. Core inflation edged up to 3.15% Y-o-Y in Feb’14 as compared to 3.04% in Jan’14. Fuel Inflation declined to 8.75% Y-o-Y from 10.03% in Jan’14 mainly due to drop in Coking Coal, Kerosene and Petrol prices.
Headline CPI dropped to a 25 month low of 8.10% in February ‘14 as against 8.79% in January ‘14 primarily on account of decline in vegetable prices which fell from a high of 21.91% in January to 14.04% in February ‘14. Core CPI also fell marginally by 9 bps to 7.91% for the month from 8.0% in January ‘14.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
* End of period figures 7
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00% WPI CPI
Equity Outlook
Indian equity markets continue to rally going into the election season. We have seen FII inflows topping three billion dollars
in the last four weeks. This has also lead to a sharp appreciation in the rupee with levels of 60 being breached for the first
time in eight months.
GDP growth continues to stagnate at 4.5-5.0% for last four quarters pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing and
industrial sectors. However, we don’t expect any further moderation and believe that the worst is behind us. India's economy
could gather pace in the new fiscal year, putting behind a dismal year. The pace of recovery will be a function of reform –
orientation of the new government and the political will to push ahead with difficult reform measures.
India Inc is looking forward to the next government for a big reform push. While corrective measures on the fiscal deficit and
current account deficit side undertaken by the Government in the recent months have started yielding results, it is important
that the momentum on reforms is not lost. There are a number of measures which a strong reform oriented government can
take in 2014 to accelerate the economy - Goods and Services Tax, direct cash transfer of subsidies and boost to
manufacturing sector. A cyclical upturn in investment, stronger external demand and monetary easing will also boost growth.
The crude oil prices are expected to stay flattish in 2014. However, if there is big upwards revision in crude oil prices, it would
further strain India’s twin deficits - fiscal and current account. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might also find it difficult to carry
out the necessary monetary measures in the form of rate cuts if inflationary pressures don’t abate.
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Equity Outlook
9
We expect CPI inflation would come down this year and could average around 7.5% due to moderation of food and vegetable
prices. The key risk factor for Indian markets in 2014 remains the political stability and the government’s ability to push
through fiscal consolidation. The right government can take measure to further reduce fiscal which will give RBI the
necessary cushion to carry out rate cuts starting July. The key to growth revival is the fillip to the capex cycle for which low
interest rates are an imperative. We should see 25-50bps cut in interest rates in 2014 provided fiscal deficit is curtailed.
We believe that going forward markets will reconcile to the fact that trend GDP growth rate has come down, and could settle
at 5-5.5%. This is the new normal for Indian growth. Further reforms on fiscal consolidation, financial liberalization and
infrastructure growth will be needed to sustain an improvement in trend growth. Revival of large stalled projects cleared by
the Cabinet Committee on Investments will give a boost to capital formation activity.
We expect FY14 Q4 results to surprise on the positive with earnings growth of more than 15%. A real GDP growth of 5.5%-
6% along with Inflation of around 7% should lead to a nominal GDP growth of 13% in FY15 leading to earnings growth of
around 13-16%.We believe sectors like Banking, selective infrastructure names, IT and Pharma would deliver strong earnings
growth in the new fiscal.
We see 2014 brining a new bull cycle into existence. Commodity price correction, a strong macroeconomic recovery in US & a
stable Euro area continue to be significant positives for equity market this year. With domestic macro-economic data also on
the mend, we are aggressive buyers of Indian equity.
Sector Stance Remarks
Healthcare Overweight
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.
IT/ITES Overweight Demand seems to be coming back in US. North American volume growth has also remained
resilient. With significant rupee depreciation in the last few months, margins will get a boost.
BFSI Overweight Private sector banks and NBFC’s are expected to deliver healthy earnings growth. We expect public
sector to significantly outperform due to cheap valuations and stabilization in asset quality.
Energy Overweight With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s
will come down during the course of the year. Rupee appreciation will also help.
Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return characteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Sector View
10
Sector Stance Remarks
Automobiles Neutral We are positive on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher
pricing power.
FMCG Neutral
We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such
as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be
disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
E&C Neutral The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with lack of demand has hurt the sector.
The capex activity might pick up in the second half of the current year.
Telecom Underweight
While regulatory hurdles seem to be reducing, recent aggressive bidding for spectrum has revived
fears of unhealthy competition. Emergent competition from the social media space also present a
formidable challenge.
Metals Underweight Steel companies will benefit because of rupee depreciation. However, commodity demand stays
low globally due to low capex activity.
Cement Underweight Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lack luster demand. With regulator taking a
strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
Sector View
11
Debt Outlook
• The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 8.79% which is 10 bps lower than the last months close of 8.89%, tracking gains in the
rupee.
• RBI infused liquidity worth Rs 5,000 cr through the repurchase auction of government securities during the month.
• 7 -day term repo rate auction for a notified amount of Rs 10,000 cr conducted during last week of March 2014, resulted in a
cut off yield of 8.78% with total amount of bids received at Rs. 48,714 cr.
• The spread on the 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 72 bps on 25th Mar, 2014 from 76 bps (as on 25th Feb,
2014).
10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve
(%)
(%)
12
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80
9.00
9.20
9.40
0.0
0
.9
1.7
2
.6
3.4
4
.2
5.1
5
.9
6.8
7
.6
8.5
9
.3
10
.1
11
.0
11
.8
12
.7
13
.5
14
.4
15
.2
16
.1
16
.9
17
.7
18
.6
19
.4
6.8000
7.3000
7.8000
8.3000
8.8000
9.3000
Debt Strategy
Outlook Category Details
Long Tenure Debt
Our recommendations regarding long term debt is neither buy nor sell for now. And after the volatility settles Investors could look to add to dynamic and medium to long term income funds over the next few months. Long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. There is lesser probability of rate cuts in the near future and there could be a lot of volatility in the g-sec yields as well. An important point to note is that as commodity prices are cooling down, current account deficit may reduce to some extent. But all this is coupled with uncertainty. We suggest matching risk appetite and investment horizon to fund selection. Hence we recommend that if investing for a period of 2 years or above then long term can be looked upon or else holding/profit booking could be a good idea. Investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term can also invest in longer tenure papers/Funds.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With RBI maintaining status quo on key interest rates in the economy we would suggest to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan in the first half of the new fiscal, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5%–10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure Debt
Credit
13
Forex
• The Indian Rupee appreciated against all the four major currencies in the last month. It strengthened by 2.39% against the US Dollar, 1.72% against the EURO and 2.30% against Japanese Yen. The major appreciation out of the four currencies was seen in GBP against which the Indian Rupee appreciated by 3.55% in last one month.
• The rupee during the month end breached its crucial resistance level of 60 per dollar for the first time in eight months on the back of strong dollar inflows. Foreign funds have bought shares worth $2.9 billion so far in March, taking net inflows in 2014 to $3.3 billion. This has led to rupees’ appreciation.
• Other reasons for a stronger rupee are improving macros, hopes of a stable pro-growth government at the centre & India being placed as a better investment option amongst emerging market economies.
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• The projected capital account balance for Q3 FY 13 is projected at Rs. 171984 crores along with the Q1 and Q2 being at 88013 Cr and 130409 Cr respectively.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
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Exports during February,2014 were valued at US $ 25.68 bn which was 3.67% lower than the level of US $ 26.66 bn during February, 2013. Imports during February,2014 were valued at US $ 33.81 bn representing a negative growth of 17.09% over the level of imports valued at US $ 40.79 bn in February, 2014 translating into a trade deficit of $8.13 bn.
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) FY 12 (Q3) FY 12 (Q4) FY 13 (Q1)
FY14(Q2)
2.39%
3.55%
1.72%
2.30%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
-20 -15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20
Export(%) Import Trade Balance (mn $)
Gold
Gold
Given the sharp sell off last year, the global commodity indices increased their 2014 weightage to the bullions
given the attractive risk reward ratio. It seems that gold has moved past the tapering concerns given the
macro uncertainties surrounding the world and safe haven is back. The talks of India relaxing the import
norms and reducing the custom duty further kept prices elevated in anticipation of demand spike that was
largely absent last year. However, due to rupee appreciation expect prices to remain stable. Gold on 25th
March, 2014 closed down 5.2% on a M-O-M basis.
15
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
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Real Estate Outlook
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
Due to a flurry of new launches in the first quarter of the year, most
markets witnessed an increase in the unsold inventory levels even with
relatively steady sales. Consequently, last quarter saw lesser new
launches.
With reduced new launches and steady absorption, the demand supply
gap is expected to reduce over the coming months.
Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft.
entry pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and
Mumbai suburbs cane be expected to continue generating good
percentage returns with relatively lower risk.
Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend
towards nuclear families, increasing disposable
income, rising aspiration to own quality products and
the growth in infrastructure facilities in these cities.
Price appreciation is more concentrated to specific
micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh,
Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna
and Cochin are expected to perform well.
Commercial/IT
The over-supply in commercial asset class still continues, thereby
dampening the capital values.
While rentals have been seen increasing at a slow pace over the last
couple of months, they still remain lower than the peal values achieved
in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore market continues to
outperform other markets owing primarily to the demand from the IT
industry.
Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-
in periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-
term horizon.
Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be
stable at their current levels in the commercial asset
class. Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets.
Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
Capital values as well as lease rentals continue to be stagnant.
The effects of the change in FDI policy to allow 51% foreign
ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand retail
are yet to have any effect of the market for retails assets.
Developers continue to defer the construction costs as
absorption continues to be low unsold inventory levels high.
Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared to
mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these rentals
gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant.
The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the Tier-2
cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this phenomenon
can be known with more certainty once the effect of FDI is more
visible in Tier I cities.
Land
Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I
cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and other
infrastructure developments present good investment
opportunities. Caution should however be exercised due to the
complexities typically involved in land investments.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth
corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low
investment base in such areas.
Real Estate Outlook
17
Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
Disclaimer
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