www.petroEDGEasia.net ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISK ANALYSIS Your Expert Course Director: Peter Wright Principal Economist Robertson CGG Company Peter is currently Principal Economist with Roberson UK in the Petroleum Reservoir & Economics department. He manages and makes contributions to various techno-economic studies, data room evaluations and Competent Persons Reports (CPRs) in the UK, Italy, Egypt and Malaysia in collaboration with
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www.petroEDGEasia.net
ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISK ANALYSIS
Your Expert Course Director: Peter Wright Principal Economist Robertson CGG Company
Peter is currently Principal Economist with Roberson UK in the Petroleum Reservoir & Economics department. He manages and makes contributions to various techno-economic studies, data room evaluations and Competent Persons Reports (CPRs) in the UK, Italy, Egypt and Malaysia
in collaboration with
Conduct this training course in-house for more effective savings! Call us at +65 6741 9927 or email to [email protected]. For more information, visit us at
www.petroedgeasia.net
ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISKS ANALYSIS 7 – 11 August 2017| Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Course Overview We are currently in the midst of one of the deepest downturns in the upstream industry in recent years. Challenging times are ahead for those looking to invest capital and grow their companies in this environment.
Petroleum Economics is all about the allocation of scarce resources. Investment capital is certainly that scarce resource at the moment. In this environment, companies are looking for people to develop highly advanced skills in upstream petroleum economic and financial analysis to answer questions such as:
Which are my most profitable assets?
Which regions of the world offer the best returns?
Could this buyers’ market be one to take advantage of in our M&A activities?
As an IOC (International Oil & Gas Company), is now the time to negotiate new terms with the government? How do we do it?
How can we compare projects to ensure capital is optimally utilised?
How is the price downturn impacting our Profit & Loss Account and Balance Sheet?
How can we optimally structure project finance
If we could negotiate a 20% cost cut from our suppliers how does that impact the overall economics of the project?
What do the economics of LNG and Unconventionals projects look like?
This advanced economics course will provide a through insight into the world of upstream petroleum economics and risk analysis to address these questions and many more.
This course covers some of the more advanced topics around oil and gas asset economics, valuation, fiscal design and risk. It covers three main areas:
Cashflow and corporate valuation After a brief refresher of cashflow fundamentals, the topic is expanded to cover the importance of both cashflow and accounting- based metrics in order to value assets for acquisitions/divestments. To this end the accounting fundamentals around P&L account, balance sheets and earnings are discussed, particularly where they interact with economics.
Petroleum fiscal design After a refresher of the fundamentals of tax/royalty, production sharing contracts and risk service contracts, we aim to provide the delegate with an in-depth understanding of the fiscal levers particularly those that are biddable or negotiated. The workshop is a team based exercise: A “negotiation scenario” is played out where the team has to select a suitable set of fiscal terms for the production sharing contract and argue its case.
Risking techniques The more advanced risking topics are discussed around sensitivity analysis, decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation.
Unconventionals and LNG Unconventionals (shale oil and gas) and LNG are rapidly changing the dynamics of the oil and gas industry. Petroleum economists need to have an understanding of how these sectors are evolving and their potential impact, as wells as how to analyse typical opportunities and projects. This module provides delegates with an introduction and basic understanding of the key issues and drivers
Who Should Attend? This 5 day practical course is an ideal next step from our introductory course on upstream petroleum economics and risk analysis; ‘An Introduction to Petroleum Economics & Risk Analysis’. Delegates should either have attended this course, or have had meaningful exposure to upstream petroleum economics and risk analysis in the work place. Delegates should have a reasonable knowledge of Microsoft Excel ™ and bring a laptop loaded with Microsoft Office™ to the course.
Who will you meet? You will meet participants from all technical and commercial disciplines from oil and gas companies, governments, banks, legal and accounting organisations.
Course Materials Delegates will be provided with electronic copies of all workshop solutions and examples, and a comprehensive hard copy course manual.
Conduct this training course in-house for more effective savings! Call us at +65 6741 9927 or email to [email protected]. For more information, visit us at
www.petroedgeasia.net
ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISKS ANALYSIS 7 – 11 August 2017| Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
5 DAY COURSE AGENDA
DAY 1 DAY 2 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF CASHFLOW ANALYSIS & VALUATION Discounted Cash Flow Refresher
Cashflow Equations
The time value of money, compounding & discounting
Real vs Nominal cashflows
Point forward/life cycle economics Asset Evaluation Metrics
Key economic metrics (NPV, IRR, DPIR, Payback)
When to use discounted/undiscounted metrics/ what they mean
Valuing an asset, making development & investment decisions
Delegate Q&A’s
Global Fiscal Systems
The tax & royalty fiscal system
Production Sharing Contracts
Risk Service Contracts
Global case studies across all three systems
Delegate PSC modelling exercise
Fiscal Design
Different methods of sliding scale (production, R-factors, rate
of return, hybrids)
Step vs Incremental methods
Understanding the issues around each method
Selecting an appropriate sliding scale to influence activity
Progressive vs Regressive systems
Selecting an appropriate scale for ‘self-adjusting mechanism’
Conduct this training course in-house for more effective savings! Call us at +65 6741 9927 or email to [email protected]. For more information, visit us at
www.petroedgeasia.net
ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISKS ANALYSIS 7 – 11 August 2017| Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
The economics of unconventional vs conventional development/production
Unconventionals environmental considerations Fiscal Systems in an Unconventional setting
The unconventional fiscal environment
Appropriate fiscal incentives to encourage development
Case Studies: US, Canada, Australia, UK
The Economics of LNG Projects
The LNG process and costs
LNG pricing around the world
Calculation of the LNG netback price
Construction of the LNG economic model
Determination of transfer price between the Upstream project and LNG plant
Consideration of the returns to the LNG project versus the returns to the Upstream project
Summary and Closing Remarks After the course delegates will be sent fully functioning electronic copies of the fiscal model solutions as well as all excel based examples studied during the course.
Your Expert Faculty:
Peter Wright Principal Economist Robertson CGG Company
Peter is currently Principal Economist with Roberson UK in the Petroleum Reservoir & Economics department. He manages and
makes contributions to various techno-economic studies, data room evaluations and Competent Persons Reports (CPRs) in the UK, Italy, Egypt and Malaysia.
Prior to 2013, he was an independent petroleum economist for 9 years. He dealt with all aspects of petroleum economics including commercial evaluations,
training, transaction support, economic or financial modelling, cost estimating and budgeting & forecasting. Projects evaluated have comprised both onshore
and offshore oil & gas fields, shale gas, FPSO investments, gas storage, carbon capture, pipelines, oil field rehabilitation, and refinery construction. His clients
included Petrofac, Senergy, RPS Energy, Blackwatch, PGS Reservoir, Mitsui, Marubeni Corp, Sumitomo Corp, FirstAfrica Oil, Rocksource and lastly Third
Energy. Before becoming an independent consultant in 2004, Peter was Director and petroleum economist with DS+A and Indeva Energy Consulants. Peter
has an MBA from Cranfield School of Management (1990) and a MA in Engineering, Downing College, Cambridge (1981). His key areas of expertise include
asset and company valuations, Competent Person’s Reports, financial and economic modelling, fiscal regimes, portfolio management and training. He is a
member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).
What past participants have said about previous economics training courses by PetroEdge: - “Very good course for non-economists for understanding the basics of Petroleum Economics & PSCs” Executive Analyst, PETRONAS
“Great course, has opened up my eyes and share a lot of light on many “grey areas” of my knowledge of the industry” Legal Executive, Brunei National Petroleum Company
“The course was an ideal introduction to the economics that drive the upstream Petroleum decision making process and the external influences that can impact upon these
decisions.” Middle East & Asia Pacific Regional Accounting Centres Director, Baker Hughes
“A good course and overview with a very knowledgeable trainer” Petroleum Engineer, APA Group
“General overview on Petroleum Economics & PSC modelling workshop brings enlighten and comprehensive understanding regarding the subject” Senior Project Engineer -
Project Management Division, SKK Migas
“PetroEdge courses are focussed and well designed to be applicable to a narrow-medium audience-therefore good value.” Sales Manager, CGG Multiclient & New Ventures
“A thoroughly interesting and comprehensive understanding of the practise of context of economics in the petroleum industry” Senior Compliance Officer, NOPTA
“This course has broaden my ideas on the production sharing concepts and I think it will be effective if applied in the Mining Industry” Policy Officer, Department of mineral
Conduct this training course in-house for more effective savings! Call us at +65 6741 9927 or email to [email protected]. For more information, visit us at
www.petroedgeasia.net
ADVANCED PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & RISKS ANALYSIS 7 – 11 August 2017| Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
DELEGATE DETAILS
DELEGATE 1
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