Advanced Modeling Practice at CMAP Kermit Wies October 2014.

Advanced Modeling Practice at CMAP 

Kermit WiesOctober 2014

Background and History

Trip-Based Models

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Mode Choice

Network Assignment

Feedback

Transit

Non-Motorized

Generalized Cost

MSA

Plan for Advanced Modeling at CMAP

• Policy priorities• Data needs• Computing environment

Freight Highway Pricing Transit Modernization

Advanced Freight Model Development

• GO TO 2040 Freight Chapter– National and Regional Policy– Economic development– Infrastructure

• Three-tiered freight analysis– Macro = Economic choice– Meso = Supply chain and logistics– Micro = Network operations

• Implementation strategy– Microsimulation– Agent-based

Progress-to-date• Two rounds of mesoscale development

– Microsimulates commodity flows and predicts distribution channels to, from and through the CMAP region.  Also assembles local truck tours. 

• Implemented at CMAP for scenario and project tests

cmap.illinois.gov/catmug

Two rounds of development

• UIC Developed original FAME model at national level

• Designed the model and prepared the original code in SAS

• Extended the design and rewrote the code in R

Mesoscale Model: step by step

cmap.illinois.gov/catmug

CMAP Implementation

• Testing model execution• Understanding new concepts• Linking to standard procedures• Results Validation

Data Resources 

• Basic demonstration uses currently available data:

– Freight Analysis Framework– County Business Patterns– Make-Use Tables– Regional Model Data– National Freight Networks

• Parameter estimation: – heuristic– empirical

Recent Applications

• Tour Length• Tonnage Comparison• Circle Interchange 

Forecasting

• Agent-based Economic Extension– External infrastructure decisions, economic change, policy actions

– Combined effect of independent procurement and logistics business decisions

Activity-Based Models• Application of an Activity-Based Model for Highway Pricing Studies in Chicago

• Transit Beyond Travel Time and Cost• Network Microsimulation Extension to Activity-Based Travel Model

Highway Pricing Model

http://www.cmap.illinois.gov/mobility/roads/congestion-pricing

Transit Modernization Model

Bike Model

ABM/DTA Integration4-step demand model

Static assignment

Trip tables

LOS skims for all

possible trips

Microsimulation ABM

Microsimulation DTA

List of individual

trips

Aggregate LOS skims

for all possible trips

Advanced Modeling Practice at CMAP 

Kermit WiesOctober 2014