Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1

Satoshi Konishi

Institute for Sustainability Science,

Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Aug.12-13, 2011

Advanced energy technology for

sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability-

Summer School AACIMP-2011

Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine

International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science

Outline of the lecture

Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)

1. Sustainability, its concept and model in the ecological system

2. Global environment problem, resource and future energy

3. Effect of energy technology development

4. Introduction to fusion energy, principle, development status

and its application

5. Biomass conversion, hydrogen production and sustainable

energy system

6. Risk of energy supply chain and stability

7. Risk of energy generation, radiological hazard and other risk

and Safety concept


Question:

Can technology development make the sustainable society?

－not for the short-term, but to support the development

without sacrificing environment, economy and citizen life.

Short-term technology, i.e. increased production may not provide

ultimate solution for sustainability.

What does technology have to do?

- to provide long-term solution for sustainability

But, the researchers do not understand how their work would

CHANGE the social system.

- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.


1．What is sustainability?

Small quis

A cell of yeast doubles in an hour. Each cell consumes １０－１０mol sugar to

make ethanol as follows;

C6H１２O6 →２C2H5OH ＋２CO2

Initial condition： ①glucose 18 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast

②glucose 90 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast

Describe what happens. Yeasts cannot live in 12 % ethanol or more. （log2=0.301, where ２１０＝１０３）

Solutions：

１） cells n, time t(h), then number of yeast is n=2t

consumption of glucose is expressed : Σ10-10n(t-1)=Σ10-102t =10-10(2t-1 )(mol)

where glucose is 180g/moland ethanol is 46g/mol. In 100ccof water, maximum

allowable ethanol is 0.3mol equivalent, that comes from 0.15mol sugar.

( n(t-1)+n(t-2)+…+n2+n+1)(n-1) = nt-1

with initial condition ①, glucose0.1mol is completely exhausted at t=30

with ②, while sugar could be spent out 32.3hours, yeasts die at 30.7hour.

t=0

t-1

There are various ways to explain what happens.

Equations are strong to calculate the exact amount, but sometimes inadequate

to explain to others.

In any case, Yeasts extinct after the exponential increase in number by

1) running out of foods : RESOURCE CONSTRAINT

2) killed by pollution mad by themselves : ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM

Is Mankind free from this mechanism? After the exponential increase of

population, either

RESOURCE or

ENVIRONMENT

may kill us.

Can we acquire unlimited clean energy resource?

Does it assure SUSTAINABILITY?

Lessons to Learn

０）respond within the time and resources….imagination helps.

１）There could be several Solutions.

ーvarious approaches

ーequations and numbers are not perfect. Sometimes inadequate.

－equations are only useful when implication is well understood.

simple explanation works usually better.

２）Energy, environment and resource problem has a very simple

structure.

to know and to understand is different.

－analogy is a very strong tool.

－but,excessive simplification (sometimes on purpose) is

dangerous.

（Even for yeast, mother nature is not such simple.）

３）Real problem comes later.

“sustainability”

Stable system：

What comes in =what comes out

system

energy

materials waste

energy

enthropy

lifeforms

society

environment

structure


Energy and system technology Input balances with output

In the steady state, they are stable

system

energy

matter waste

energy lifeform

society

environment

structure

Sustainable system

entropy

When species is regarded as a system, stable

population is a necessary criterion of sustainability.


Water tank：system

energy balance？

material balance？

what else？

fish

bodily wastes

Water flea

algae

system

energy

materials waste

energy

lives

society environment

Question

・In a closed water system, algae, water flea, and fishes are

living.

-Describe the mechanism that this system runs stably without

any input/output of materials.

Wat is needed? If not how the system cannot be stable?

(1) energy balance

・input：light

・output：heat

(2) material recycle

(3) these are not enough!

heat

enthropy

２．What is different from the case of yeast in the last class?

３．What lesson do you have to learn?

system

energy

materials waste

energy

lives

society environment

fish

bodily wastes

Water flea

algae

・Steady state “sustainable” solution in a closed eco-system

Killifish Water flea

Algae CO2 O2

Heat

Entropy (1) Energy balance

・Energy input： light

・Energy output: heat and entropy Stable system : steady energy consumption

energy balance

entropy

Material

(resource)

waste

Detritus

tubificids

Sustainable material balance

(2) Material balance

・material cycle: waste used as resources

Energy and entropy exhaust required

(3) system balance

・stable population

mechanism to control relationships

Carbon cycle


Thanks to National Institute of Radiological Science

Input = Output (quantity balance)

Stable System

Energy

Material Waste

Energy

（ Enthropy）

Life Form

Species

ENVIRONMENT


Sustainable species

① Environment is given

② Creatures either adapt or fail

③ better adaptation causes

evolution

④ Creatures disturb environment

① Environment changes with

creatures living there

② Combination of Reformed

environment and creature make

material cycle System

③If System is suitable for creature

and sustainable, it survives

④Sustainability is an accidental

consequence

Previous concepts

ENVIRONMENT Adaptation

disturbance

Creature

Present concept

ENVIRONMENT

ENVIRONMENT’

favour

constraints

Creature reform

Material cycle System


Environment from system view

① System has a process of the generation of nuclei, growth at the

front, and saturation.

② Growth speed is described with Logistic functions.

③Stable state is controlled by the constraints of supply and

environmental capacity

ENVIRONMENT

Energy

material

nuclei growth saturation


Growth in the local environment

Each reformed

Material cycle

①nucli generation and their growth

environment and resource does not limit

②glowth look like exponential

③stabilized growth, resource and/or environment limits

④in the stable state, material recycle established with

other organisms sharing the same environment.

(when it is successful to survive)

⑤ genetic change is neutral and steady

①generation

②growth ③stabilization



Logistic curve growth

Saturation occurs in all material cycle systems.

②generation of new species

①stable

③evolution (progress) of a species

④extinction

Same logistic process are applied all the species on the earth.

This mechanism well explains apparent evolution of the species.



evolution

Problem:

We need energy. Mainly to sustain our body and activity.

－The energy drives the circulation of material in the

environment.

We humankind increased our activities with increased energy

demand and supply.

Energy technology is being developed and improving.

But, the researchers do not understand how their work would

CHANGE the social system.

- we have to understand how energy technology change our

world.


Energy Demand

Energy

Development

Growth

(GDP)

Population

Sustainability

Economy growth

Energy supply causes population increase→energy demand

Even a clean energy is not sustainable under the industrial

revolution model.


2．Resource, environment and

technology

・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of cost effectiveness = “Value for Money”. －All the energy technologies are evaluated from the

aspect of future social demand.

－ “Effect” can be measured in monetary terms.

－However, market is not the only place where its value is

estimated.

－ Energy supply affects environment, public and society

through various paths other than market. (Externality)

→Investment for research and development can be justified

from the expected effect to the future society.

Future energy must respond to the

demand of the society.

Evaluation of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Institute of Sustainable Science

Population growth

Worlds population Anticipated to be ca. 10 billion

around 2050.

Increases in

developing countries and

urban area.

present present

Mostly urban

Developing countries

Logistic curve dy/dt = ky2(L-y) 2


Electricity and living standard

• Living standard increase with power consumption up to ~4,000kWh

• In developing countries, people are considered to seek living standard corresponding to ~4,000kWh

as the generation capacity, it is ~1kW

Yearly power consumption per man (kWh)

● Developed Countries

● Middle & South America

● Asia

● Africa

● Middle East

● East Europe, Former Soviet


United Nations estimated from education,

medical system and expected life, etc.

2100 28.5BTOE 1990

JAPAN

NIES/ASEAN

China

India Other

NA EU

RF East Europe

8.3BTOE

JAPAN

NA EU

Other

India

China

NIES/ASEAN

East Europe

RF

Current fusion studying countries will be minority in energy consumption

Developing(growing) countries will play a major role.

Future Energy Market International Symposium on Global Sustainability


・What is R/P ratio? Exhausting year?

R/P = resource (t)/consumption(t/y)

Resource exhausts?

International Symposium on Global Sustainability


Energy resources and R/P ratio by BP2005

oil gas coal uranium

41

67

164

85

change of R/P of oil

year

http://www.iae.or.jp/energyinfo/index.html

It is not a lack of materials

・R/P ratio shows the measure of demand to start exploration

→people will not start resource search until it is strongly

needed newly found resource may be sold after R/P years later.

→R/P ratio controls the searching activity.

・when resource price increases, expensive sources disregarded

as “resource” becomes available.(distant, poor, expensive,

unconventional..)

・increased price discourages consumption and promote savings.

・technology to find, produce, process and use improves always.

・resources are substituted.

“Stone age finished before stones run out”

→nevertheless resource constraints and sometimes run out

….particularly “renewables” would.


Never run out

（出典）ＴｈｅＭＯＡＩＨＰ 20

16century, Easter Ilands

Moai.

Lost with exhausted energy resource.

（出典）ＴｈｅＭＯＡＩＨＰ 22

Civilization can disappear within 100 years

By resource constraint.

CO2 emission International Symposium on Global Sustainability


CO2 concentration in Air

human emission

year

Fossil consumption and ＣＯ2

1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 6 0

2 8 0

3 0 0

3 2 0

3 4 0

3 6 0

3 8 0

Fossil

consum

ption,

bill

ion t

on

year

fossil

Total energy

Industrial

revolution

1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

4

8

0

CO

2 c

oncentr

atio

n


consumption of fossil fuel corresponds to the CO2

increase

Life Cycle Analyis of Energy

Life cycle CO2 emission

0

100

. 3 . 7

178

5 . 7 6 - 1 2

8 5

C O

8 1

2 7 0

200

1 6 3 4 . 3

P h

o t o

v o

l t a

i c （

Ind

ustr

ial)

Win

d

3 3 . 7

4 . 8 3 1 4 6

O i l

LN

G

4 0 1 2 2 4

C o

a l

200

300

Co

al/

CO

2 s

eq

ues

trati

on

Ph

oto

vo

ltaic

(ho

me)

LN

G/C

O2

se

qu

es

tra

tio

n

CO

2

Em

issio

n(g

/kw

h)

Fu

sio

n

Hyd

ro

Fis

sio

n

By Y.Uchiyama and K. Tokimatsu

Fossil should be replaced by new “clean”energy technology


World Energy Source

estimated actual

Oil shock

Oil shock

WW2

WW1

108

Ton

oil e

quiv

alen

t /y

ear

coal

oil

Natural gas

Renewables

nuclear

hydr

o

Fossil will remain, but poorer in quality and quantity. Demand will continue to increase. → new energy source will be strongly needed.


element Existing in earth

crast[1000t]

x10 13.6

Existing

resource

[1000t]

resource(R)

[1000t]

Production

P[1000y/t]

R/P[y] 主な産出国

aluminum 3,240,000,000 28,000,00

0

23,000,000 114,009 202 豪州(38%)ギニア(13%)

iron 1,990,000,000 112,000,0

00

68,000,000 954,900 71 中国(25%)ブラジル(18%)

titanium 175,000,000 440,000 270,000 3,990 68 豪州(52%)ノルウェー(19%)

manganese 37,800,000 5,000,000 680,000 22,300 30 中国(27%)南ア共(15%)

zirconium 6,570,000 62,000 32,000 857 37 豪州(54%)南ア共(30%)

vanadium 5,370,000 27,000 10,000 35 286 南ア共(46%)ロシア(31%)

cromium 3,980,000 7,500,000 3,700,000 12,200 303 南ア共(41%)トルコ(16%)

nickel 2,990,000 140,000 40,000 1,010 40 ロシア(22%)カナダ(19%)

zinc 2,790,000 430,000 190,000 7,226 26 カナダ(17%)中国(14%)

copper 2,190,000 630,000 320,000 10,756 30 チリ(28%)米国(18%)

cobalt 995,000 9,000 4,000 27 148 ザンビア(29%)カナダ(21%)

niobium 796,000 4,200 3,500 16 219 ブラジル(85%)カナダ(15%)

lithium 796,000 9,400 3,700 21 176 ボリビアチリ

lead 517,000 120,000 65,000 2,738 24 米国(16%) 中国(15%)

boron 398,000 470,000 170,000 3,250 52 トルコ(48%)米国(36%)

beryllium 111,000 800 421 0.35 1200 米国(84%)ロシア(14%)

tin 79,600 12,000 7,700 206 37 中国(26%)

molybden 59,700 12,000 5,500 127 43 米国(44%)中国(20%)

tungsten 59,700 3,300 2,100 31.9 66 中国(28%)ロシア(9%)

bismuth 6,930[1] 260 110 4.21 26 メキシコ(39%)ペルー(24%)

silver 2,790 420 280 14.5 19 メキシコ(17%)ペルー(13%)

gold 159 72 45:含累積154

2.25 20 南ア共(22%)米国(14%)

Reduction of CO2 emission

Saving renewable

Saving Renewable Advanced nuclear

BAU

6,306 6,306

12,379

16,080

8,162

9,929

9,416

6,372

5,853

8,889

5,063

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 em

issi

on

ＧＴ

Ｃ

BAU

year

Saving Renewable Advanced nuclear +hydrogen

Known technology is insufficient to achieve

zero emission eventually.


・Public, society and government requires research is worth － for investment, more benefit will be eventually returned.

－ damage on environment, threat for public safety

be reduced .

・Energy must be socially and economically feasible.

－economical competitiveness

－market eligibility

－social acceptance, environmental friendliness…

→technology will be compared with other energy sources,

funding must compete with other research programs.

→researchers must show the outcome will respond social

requirements.

from public viewpoint International Symposium on Global Sustainability


World Energy Investment

Electricity investment will dominates. In each sub-sector, production

accounts for the majority of investment – except for electricity

Total investment: 16 trillion dollars

Oil 19%

Electricity

60%

Coal 2%Gas 19%

Other

Refining

E&D 72%

13%15%Other

Refining

E&D 72%

13%15%

E&D

LNG Chain

T&D and

Storage

55%

37%

8%

E&D

LNG Chain

T&D and

Storage

55%

37%

8%

Power

generation

T&D54%

46% Power

generation

T&D54%

46%

Mining

Shipping

and ports12%

88% Mining

Shipping

and ports12%

88%

Figure by J. Sheffield

2001-2030

Electricity is made by technology. Fuel is supplied by resource


Almost half of energy investment requirements of

$16 trillion will be needed in developing countries

Figure by J. Sheffield

Developed countries research

and deploy new technology

20th century 21st century

Developed countries research

Developing country use.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

OECD North

America

China OECD Europe

Other Asia

Africa

Russia

Middle

East

OECD Pacific

Other Latin America

India Other

transition economies

Brazil cum

ula

tive

in

vest

men

t (b

illio

n d

olla

rs)

0

5

10

15

20 sh

are in g

lob

al investm

ent (%

)

R&D investment 0.27%GDP in Thai, Japan 3%, by Thai report.

Energy Investment by Region

2001-2030


Energy Options for Sustainability

・Cost of technology decreases

・Cost of resources increases

・All energy technology have

both features

・External cost sometimes

plays major role

・Various constraints may

affect

・Energy may not be selected by

market.

-government

-social option

Sum of production

price

Technical

improvement

Resource

constraint technology

fossil


Technology and resource

Price of fossil energy

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20700

10

20

30

40

50

60

新エネ促進BAUコス

ト（

1997年

価格

）￠

/kW

h

年

Cost of the resource always

increases because of

consumption.

Cost of technology always

decreases due to the

improvement

Cost of PV


・clean.

・ abundant.

・ economical.

－However, market is not the only place where its value is

estimated.

－ Energy supply affects environment, public and society

through various paths other than market. (Externality)

－ Demand does not guarantee the sales.

Supply chain constraint

→Limitation

→glow speed

Future energy must respond to the

demand of the society.

Energy for sustainability International Symposium on Global Sustainability


Innovative technology provides clean energy

to respond demands.

ーmay we satisfy the demands if energy is clean?

ーdoesn’t clean energy jeopardize sustainability?

－does it analyze all the risks?

ー is transition (growth) always good?

…good index for “sustainability” yet to find.

Sustainability question

Impacts of the energy technology can be analyzed

Developers and users are different by

area and generation.


Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1

Education

sustainable energy system6

fusion energy

institute of advanced

sustainable society

risk of energy generation

risk of energy supply

sustainability science

global environment problem