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1. An introduction to VesselsValue
2. OSV valuation methodology
3. Offshore vessel values: reality versus fantasy?
TOPICS
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
ESTABLISHED 2010 OFFICES London (HQ), Isle of Wight (Data), Stoke (Coders), Singapore (Rep) PEOPLE 80 (from 4 in 2010)
The Online Shipping & Offshore Market Intelligence and Valuation Service
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
CLIENTS 750 logins, 360 companies, 48 countries CLIENT TYPES Banks, Owners, Funds, Governments, Regulators, Lawyers
PRESS Quoted in c.20 articles per week, across more than 30 global and regional publications
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV$ INSTANT VALUES • Daily updated values for Vessels,
Companies, Portfolios
• Tankers, Bulkers, Containers, LNG, LPG, PSV’s, AHTS’s
• Accuracy tested and reported
• Full supporting information (time series, transactions etc)
• Instant valuation certificates
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV+ POWERFUL & INTERACTIVE DATABASE • Search and compare by any
combination of criteria
• Fleet search: vessels, companies, specifications, incidents, locations, laden/ballast
• Deals search: S&P, Newbuilds, Demolitions, Charters
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV@ INTEGRATED AIS AND GIS • AIS Satellite and Terrestrial
mapping/tracking
• GIS Maritime energy infrastructure (oil fields, platforms, pipelines, SBM’s
• Automated alerts (i.e. sanction zones, OSV activity around rigs)
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
RICHARD RIVLIN CEO
40 years in the shipping market
Founder of VesselsValue
ADRIAN ECONOMAKIS COO
5 years in Energy consultancy, 6 years VV
Founding employee at VV
MSc Shipping, Trade & Finance
GEORGINA GAVIN CCO
10 years sales and management experience
Founding employee at VV
BEN DURBER CTO
1st class mathematics and computer programming degree
11 years experience in software development
Founding employee at VV
KEY STAFF
London Isle of Wight
Stoke
Singapore
Consultants
OSV VALUATION METHODOLOGY
OSV MARKET VALUE MODEL
1. Type
2. Size
3. Age
4. Features
5. Transactions
6. Market sentiment
Ship, Fleet and Portfolio
values
Historical Time Series
Fleet Statistics
Ownership/Relationships
DAILY UPDATES INSTANT ACCESS
DAILY RECALIBRATION
OSV FEATURES VS VALUE
• DWT (PSVs)
• Bollard pull / BHP (AHTSs)
• Fire-fighting (FiFi) capability
• Deck strength
• Deck area
• Total accommodation
• Supply capacity (methanol/glycol etc.)
• Dynamic positioning
• Chain capacity
• Chain lockers
• Oil recovery
• Survivor capacity/equipment
• Generators
• Number of winches/drums
• Helideck
• Gearing
• Design
MARKET SENTIMENT VS VALUE
Reported OSV charter rates are NOT a good proxy for market performance & sentiment
This is because they do NOT take into account utilisation of the vessels (i.e. no TCE)
Therefore, there is NO adequate reporting of OSV rates that can be used to correlate changes in vessel values.
OSV values correlate highly with the oil price (after signal processing utilising rolling averages and a lagging effect)
Therefore, the VV Oil Price Index (SOM) is used as the proxy for market sentiment and has effects on values in the absence of transactions
However…
MARKET SENTIMENT VS VALUE
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100
0.00
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1/4/2005 1/4/2006 1/4/2007 1/4/2008 1/4/2009 1/4/2010 1/4/2011 1/4/2012 1/4/2013 1/4/2014 1/4/2015 1/4/2016
Offshore SOM - Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil Spot($/barrel) Combined SOM PSV (Large)
EXAMPLE OF VV OFFSHORE VALUATION PAGE
EXAMPLE OF VV OFFSHORE VALUATION PAGE
ACCURACY
0%
1%
2%
3%
-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%
% o
f val
uatio
ns
Valuation difference (%)
Accuracy Range
% of Values
+/- 1% 7% +/- 2% 12% +/- 3% 17% +/- 4% 22% +/- 5% 27%
+/- 10% 49% +/- 20% 79% +/- 30% 94% +/- 40% 99% +/- 50% 100%
Mean 5% Stdev 15%
Accuracy = transaction price vs VV value the day before
OFFSHORE CHARTER FREE VESSEL VALUES: REALITY VERSUS FANTASY
MARKET REACTION
SOME NEGATIVE
“VesselsValue does not know what they are doing and should concentrate on assessing the value of tankers and bulk carriers.”
Norweigan Shipowner Quoted in Dagens Naeringsliv
(a Norwegian daily newspaper)
May 2016
MARKET REACTION
SOME POSITIVE
“VesselsValue have come a long way in setting the standard for blue sea shipping in precise, prompt valuations in a relatively short period of time.
By applying similar metrics along with known differentiators in the offshore space they will achieve this too with their offshore product.”
Singaporean Offshore Broker
MARKET UNCERTAINTY
Notes to the accounts
“Valuation has been received from accredited brokers for all vessels. Due to a limited number of sale and purchase transactions in the current market, there is a large uncertainty related to the received broker estimates.”
FANTASY
Huge variation in values provided by brokers, for example:
c.200% spread, very limited supporting evidence = lack of confidence in values
Far East offshore broker
USD 30m
Same AHTS (blt 2016, 28k
bhp), same day, charter free
market value
Scandinavian offshore broker USD 90m
REALITY
REALITY
REALITY
% CHANGE IN VALUE OVER LAST 12 MONTHS
PSV VALUE (2007 BLT)
High of $48m May 2008 Low of $9.1m June 2016
AHTS VALUE (2007 BLT)
High of $57m August 2008 Low of $12.2m June 2016
VALUE CHANGE SUMMARY
• Values are down significantly
• PSV’s suffered first, with falls starting in 2014
• AHTS values followed a year later, with drops starting in 2015
• No recovery in sight, although moderately rising oil prices should be
good news
• We can tell you the value of any OSV back to 2007, and soon back to early 90’s (multiple cycles)
MORE THAN VALUES
AIS / GIS · OIL & GAS PIPELINES
AIS / GIS · PLATFORMS / RIGS
AIS / GIS · GAS & OIL FIELDS
AIS / GIS · OPEN AND OPERATED LICENCES
APPLICATIONS OF AIS / GIS
• Alerts when platforms have had no OSV activity = early warning on lack of the rigs activity/earnings
• Layup • Utilisation • Hot/cold markets
• Leading indicators on the Offshore and Oil/Gas markets • Much more
[email protected] Adrian Economakis · COO
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