ADM Germany Market Review 2014 07

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Market Review July 2014

10 Years after the EU Accession –What has changed in the Agricultural

Sector in the Central and Eastern

European Member States?



2

Grain 3

Oilseeds/Oilmeals 4

Other Feedstuffs 4

Germany 5

10 Years after the EU Accession – What has changed

in the Agricultural Sector in the Central and Eastern

European Member States? 6

Table 1: World Crop Production 11

Table 2: Wheat Trade 12

Table 3: Corn Trade 12

Table 4: Barley Trade 12

Table 5: Soybean Trade 12

Table 6: Rapeseed Trade 12

Table 7: EU-28 Grain Production 13

Table 8: EU-28 Oilseed Production 14

Table 9: EU-28 Export and Import Commitments 15



ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review July 31, 2014

3

Grain

EU Maize: Weather conditions in the EU are

ideal for crop development. The wheat quality

problems expected in France are weighing

heavily on the prices for maize as the feed

wheat price is undercutting the maize prices

which might push maize out of the feed mix-

tures. However, new-crop maize prices are

already even partly reaching levels below the

production costs. The farmers’ willingness to

sell is very low currently.

EU Wheat: In July, quotations on the Matiffor the November contract stood at between

176 and 186 €/t. Harvest volumes in the

Black Sea region and northern Europe are

said to be very good. As regards the quality,

however, the protein content is lower. This is

the reason why brisk trading activity has been

noted recently in Germany and Poland on the

market for wheat with a protein content of

11.0%. As falling numbers in France will pre-

sumably be very low, a substantial part of the

quantities that were originally planned to be

exported to Algeria are not likely to be exe-

cuted. This is supporting the German and

Polish market for wheat with a 11% protein

content. Thus it is assumed that, due to its

lower availability, high-quality wheat can eas-

ily be marketed. CIF prices in the Netherlands

have come under extreme pressure due to the

large feed wheat quantities available in

France. It is therefore to be expected that feed

wheat will be much more used for compound

feed production than other protein sources.

EU Malting Barley: In France, the winter

barley harvest is completed. Yields as well as

quantities are better than expected. Up to

now, also one third of the spring barley has

been harvested in France. So far, the quality is

said to be satisfactory, although partially the

protein content seems to be below average,

and only some isolated cases of sprouting

have been reported. In Scandinavia and the

United Kingdom, the harvest will begin a bit

earlier than usual and should progress well,

provided no more heavy precipitation will

occur. Malting barley prices continue to fol-

low the downturn in the price level noted in

the whole grain complex and they are current-

ly the lowest worldwide. This makes EU

malting barley exports to third countries very

likely. The new crop in 2015 is increasingly

attracting some buying interest but offers are

scarce.

International Malting Barley: In Argentina,

seeding is still delayed and a new estimate

puts the acreage only at 920,000 ha compared

to the 1.27 mln ha planted last year. The op-

timal time for planting will already end in

about two weeks. In Canada, the acreage was

reduced by 14% due to delayed sowings. In

Australia, the impact of the El Nino weather

phenomenon will be weaker than initially ex-

pected. The crops there had a good start and

harvest prospects are good so far. There is

still continued demand from China and the

country has already covered its needs for the

autumn months with French winter malting

barley.

EU Feed Barley: Since the beginning of this

month, prices in the EU have declined further.

Only a few exports to northwestern Europe

have been reported due to very competitive

prices in the Black Sea region. New demand

from third countries currently concentrates on




4

later delivery dates. The harvest prospects on

the southern hemisphere should then play an

important role for the future development of

the prices.

Oilseeds/Oilmeals

Rapeseed Meal: The demand for old-crop

goods is fully covered now and the last logis-

tical problems are solved. The last remaining

old-crop quantities are offered at lower prices,

meaning slightly more than 200 €/t. The mar-

ket is more and more concentrating on the

autumn months. Due to the expected verygood rapeseed harvest and the related pres-

sure on the quotations on the Matif, prices

have declined by about 18-19 €/t to around

185 €/t within the first three weeks of July for

delivery between November and January. In

the past few days, however, prices have

firmed a bit by about 10 €/t. The prices for

delivery in August to October 2014 and for

later delivery in 2015 are around 4 €/t lower

than those for the November-January period.

Prices of 190-195 €/t are generating some

buying interest. Crush margins are not attrac-

tive for the most part. In general, the market is

dominated by uncertainty due to the volatility

noted on the exchanges, and only a limited

number of quantities are traded. In the desti-

nation countries, demand has risen slightly.

Especially in Spain, consumers have made

first purchases. There are still offers from theBlack Sea region trying to arouse some buy-

ing interest.

Sunseed Meal: The market remains calm.

The price decline noted in June has thus also

continued over the month of July. Goods from

the Black Sea region are priced at approxi-

mately 227-235 USD/t. Buying interest is still

very low. Offers, on the other hand, are like-

wise quite rare. Stocks in the destination

countries like Italy and France continue to be

high and consumers have covered their needs

to a sufficient extent.

Other Feedstuffs

Palmkernel Expellers: Due to the current price level and the developments on the other

feedstuff markets, palmkernel expellers are

not attractive for buyers, so that hardly any

sales were made in Europe over the course of

this month. The price level in the countries of

origin has decreased but also there only very

few quantities have been traded yet.

Citruspulp Pellets: Offers from Brazil arevery rare but demand is also low as the con-

sumers consider the prices to be not attractive

enough.

Beetpulp Pellets: Prices for old-crop goods

declined significantly in the EU although

supplies are low. On the international market,

quantities out of the old crop are still availa-




5

ble at sharply reduced prices. Prices for the

new crop remain stable and sales are low.

Maize By-Products: The market is calm and

the price level is low. A few sporadic low-volume sales are reported.

Molasses: A few wagonloads of beet molas-

ses are being traded for delivery in Au-

gust/September. Buying interest for goods out

of the new campaign is only limited.

Glycerine: Due to declining prices, demand

from the animal feed industry has picked upslightly. The biodiesel industry has quite well

covered its demand already.

Germany

In most parts of Germany, the barley andrapeseed harvests are finished now. However,

the same cannot be said about the wheat har-

vest due to the extreme wet weather condi-

tions that were noted in some areas in the past

few weeks. Harvesting is thus likely to con-

tinue into August. So far, the yields of all

grains are considered to be good to very good,

in some regions even record yields have been

achieved. The quality, especially in the case

of wheat, is though not expected to be high

but to be much lower than in the previous

year. Recently, lodging of wheat has occurred

in many regions, caused by heavy thunder-

storms. Also sprouted grains have been ob-

served in some areas. In southern and central

Germany in particular, falling numbers show

relatively low levels. The same applies to the

protein content in some locations. Following

a wet and cold start into vegetation, the maize

plants now benefited from the recent hot and

humid weather. Thus, the maize crop is in

good condition in most regions.

At present, we expect this year’s grain pro-

duction in Germany to probably reach a new

record level of 48.5 – 49.5 (last year 47.4)

mln t, thereof wheat 25.7-26.3 (250) mln t,

barley 10.4 – 10.8 (10.4) mln t, rye 3.7-3.9(4.7) mln t and triticale 2.6-2.8 (2.6) mln t.

Rapeseed production is estimated at 5.9-6.1

(5.8) mln t and corn for grain production at

4.9-5.2 (4.1) mln t.

The German statistics office reports that

Germany exported 14.6 mln t of grain from

July 2013 to Mai 2014, which is up from the

12.4 mln t exported in the same period one

year earlier. Exports to other EU countriesreached 6.6 (7.8) mln t and to third countries

8.0 (4.6) mln t. Wheat exports stood at 9.7

(6.7) mln t, that of barley at 1.9 (1.8) mln t, of

rye at 337,805 (378,600) t, and of malt at

454,537 (418,700) t.

Grain imports totalled 9.1 (8.5) mln t, there-

of those from other EU countries 8.2 (7.8)

mln t and those from third countries 961,042

(704,500) t. The imports of wheat accounted

for 3.6 (3.4) mln t, those of barley for 1.0

(1.2) mln t, of oats for 316,600 (261,400) t, of

corn for 2.8 (1.9) mln t, of rye for 551,400

(317,600) t, and of malt for 224,200

(213,900) t.




6

According to the Federal Office of Economics

and Export Control (Bundesamt f. Wirtschaft

u. Ausfuhrkontrolle), the use of gasoline in

Germany reached 7.5 mln t in January to May

2014 and thus exceeded the 7.4 mln t used in

the first five months of last year. The total

includes a bioethanol use of 487,000

(479,000) t. Total diesel use stood at 14.4

(13.7) mln t, including a biodiesel and vege-

table oil for fuel use of 933,000 (858,000) t.

The German statistics office reports that cat-

tle inventories reached 12.7 mln head as of

May 3, 2014, which is unchanged from the

number counted in November, but up from

the 12.6 mln head counted in May 2013. The

number of dairy cows stood at 4.31 (Novem-

ber 2012: 4.27; May 2012: 4.22) mln head.

Hog inventories stood at 28.1 (28.1; 27.7) mln

head including 2.07 (2.06; 2.05) mln sows.

10 Years after the EU Accession – What has changed inthe Agricultural Sector in the Central and Eastern European

Member States?

It is now more than ten years ago that 10 cen-

tral and eastern European countries (Estonia,

Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Czech

Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and

Cyprus) – further on called EU-10 - on May1, 2004 have joined the European Union

(EU). On top, Romania (2007), Bulgaria

(2007) and Croatia (2013) have since joined

creating the so-called EU-13. This section re-

volves around the economic and agricultural

changes in the central and eastern member

states during these 10 years.

Economy in the EU-10 has grown since ac-

cession took place. These 10 member states intotal had an annual average real GDP growth

rate of 2.4% between 2004 and 2013. This is

almost three times as much as the EU-15

growth rate of just 0.9%. The drop in eco-

nomic growth in course of the financial crisis

during 2009 was deeper in the EU-10 with -

7.4% (versus -3.9% in the EU-15). However,

recovery took place at a faster speed, too,

with Estonia (4.23%), Lithuania (3.65%),

Latvia (3.33%) and Poland (3.00%) having

strong average annual growth rates since

2010.

Another good indicator for economic growth

is the development of Foreign Direct In-

vestments (FDI). The inflows were increas-

ing substantially between 2008 and 2013, for

example in Estonia, the Czech Republic, Po-

land and Hungary by an annual average of

3.16%, 2.06%, 1.78%, and 1.30%, respective-

ly. In Germany, France and Italy, in contrast,

FDIs were decreasing in the same period by -

1.40%, -1.74%, and -1.12%, respectively.

Logistics remain a challenge in several central

and eastern member states. Efficient infra-

structure is important for positive industrial

and trade developments. In 2004, the motor-

way (highway) system in the EU-10 (EU-13)

states had a total length of 3,247 (4,731) km.

This was increased by 2,128 (2,989) km in the

time period 2004-2012, reaching totals of

5,375 (7,720) km. The two largest increases

came in Poland and Hungary with 813 km




7

and 704 km, respectively. Romania more than

doubled its motorway system from 228 km to

550 km. In the EU-15, the total motorway

system is 63,000 km long and thus much

longer than in the central and eastern member

states.

Railroad is another important transport mode.

The largest extension of the rail network in

the EU-13 between 2004 and 2012 was in Es-

tonia (271km). No other EU-13 country ex-

tended its lines in that time period. Hungary

extended their network by 450 km between

2004 and 2006, but has since reduced and hasnow even less railroad km than in 2004. The

same is true for Latvia. The total change in

network length was a decrease of more than

1,000 km in the EU-13. The negative devel-

opment in some countries may be a result of

lines that have been shut and are currently

being upgraded. In 2012, the EU-13 railroad

network totalled 64,285 km, while that of the

EU-15 totalled 157,367 km.

The payments from the EU budget are an im-

portant factor for economic growth in the cen-

tral and eastern member states. Due to the no-

table differences with regard to economic

power compared to the western member states

almost all EU-13 countries (except Cyprus)

are net recipients. And the amount of money

they receive from the EU has steadily in-

creased since the accession took place. Be-tween 2004 and 2008 a total net of around 32

bln Euro was paid to the EU-13 out of the EU

budget. For the period between 2009 and

2012 this amount almost tripled to a net 87

bln Euro. The biggest net recipients were Po-

land (38 bln Euro), Hungary (13 bln Euro)

and the Czech Republic (8 bln Euro). The by

far biggest part of these payments refers to

agriculture (mainly direct payments) and rural

development.

The yearly rate of price increases (annual in-

flation rate) in the EU-10 has fallen sharplysince the accession and has stabilized at this

lower level in most member states. The infla-

tion in the EU-15 averaged 2.27% in 2002-

2004 and has decreased slightly to an average

of 2.19% (2011-2013). This represents a 4%

decrease. The EU-10 saw a relatively large

decrease of 15% from 3.28% (2002-2004) to

2.83% (2011-2013). There was however a

spike in inflation between 2005 and 2010.When including Romania, Bulgaria and Croa-

tia (EU-13), the decrease in the inflation rate

is even at 35%. This indicates great improve-

ments in economic stability. For example,

currently the yearly inflation rate in Poland

ranges between 1 and 4% against 8 – 10% in

the period 1995-2000.

Ahead of the accession, many western Euro-

pean farmers had feared that the EU expan-

sion would have adverse impacts on their ag-

ricultural business. They assumed that the

expected increases in productivity and pro-

duction cost benefits would result in cheaper

produced grain and oilseeds which could glut

the western European markets.

Wages are no reason for farmers’ fears if

productivity is high due to modern technolo-

gy. With regard to unit labour costs differ-

ences should then be small. Differences

among wages in the EU-15 and those in the

new member states are therefore not as im-

portant as many think when it comes to com-

petitiveness.

In large part, it is the farm structure that de-

termines competitiveness. According to the

statistics service Eurostat, this structure has




8

not changed a lot between 2005 and 2010

(more recent data are not available in this re-

spect). Around 91% of all EU-13 farms with

agricultural land were smaller than 10 ha in

2010. In Romania, which makes up for more

than half of the total farm number of the EU-

13, almost 98% of all farms are smaller than

10 ha. Especially in these small farms it is

almost impossible zu increase productivity.

Improvements can only be achieved if farm

size increases in the course of structural

change. And since farming is the only income

source for many people in the country side,

structural change takes place only very slow-

ly. However, there are some countries, in

which structural change is occurring more

rapidly than in Romania and where farm size

is increasing. In Poland, though being still a

country with many small farms, the share of

farms with less than 10 ha has decreased from

85% in 2005 to 77% in 2010. In Bulgaria, this

share has decreased from 94% to 71%. Ac-

cording to Eurostat, these smaller farms withless than 10 ha manage only around 25% of

the total agricultural area in the EU-13. Ap-

proximately 75% are run by bigger (partly

much bigger) farms that make up for only 9%

of the total farm number in the EU-13, but

should be able to increase its productivity rap-

idly in contrast to the small farms.

Although structural change is taking place

only slowly in some areas, agriculture in the

EU-13 has become more productive over the

past 10 years. This is not at least demonstrat-

ed by cultivation patterns and yield develop-

ment. Farmers have tended to change their

crop rotation towards more intensive crops.

The wheat area in the EU-13, for example,

has increased from 7.8 mln ha in 2004 to 9.1

mln ha in 2013. This is a plus of 17%. Wheat

yields have increased by 16% from 3.51 t/ha

for the average of 2003 to 2006 to 4.06 t/ha

for the average of 2010 to 2013. Similar de-

velopments occurred in the case of winter bar-

ley, for which yields increased by 23 % on an

almost unchanged area. The rapeseed area has

heavily increased between 2004 and 2009.

During that period the acreage doubled from

1.3 mln ha to 2.5 mln ha on the back of ever

rising rapeoil needs from the biodiesel indus-

try. However, since EU biodiesel production

is not increasing anymore and other feed-

stocks than rapeoil are used more frequently,

the rapeseed area in the EU-13 has stagnated.

It is now still at the level of 2009. The same is

true for yields: The average of the years 2003-

2006 was at 2.25 t/ha, increasing to 2.46 t/ha

for the average of 2006-2009 and remaining

at that level for the average of 2010-2013.

In general, grain and rapeseed yields are

highest in the Czech Republic, followed by

Hungary and Slovakia and Poland, while the

lowest yields are reached in the two northern

Baltic states Latvia and Estonia, where, how-

ever, spring varieties dominate. The biggest

jump in yields over time can be recorded for

Romania and Bulgaria. Wheat yields, for ex-

ample, increased by more than 30% since the

middle of the last decade.

Apart from rapeseed (until 2009) and wheat,

the area of the spring crops corn and sunflow-

ers has also increased a lot. Acreage of eachcrop jumped by a good 30% between 2004

and 2013. Yields of both crops have also

jumped by around 10% when comparing the

2003-2006 with the 2010-2013 average.

Overall, yields in the EU-13 countries are in-

creasing more steeply than in the EU-15,

where corn yields have increased by 9% and

those of rapeseed and wheat have remained




9

more or less unchanged. However, though the

central and eastern European member states

have caught up, the overall yield level is still

notably higher in the EU-15, i.e. for wheat by

around 60% higher, for rapeseed by almost

40% and for corn by a vast 100%. On top,

weather related yield variations are much

higher in the East, where, for example, the

corn yield has dropped twice in the past 10

years by more than 35% from one year to an-

other. In the West, year on year swings of

more than 15% did not exist.

Although many areas in the EU-13 have acompetitive disadvantage compared to the

EU-15 since they are located far away from

the ports (Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Repub-

lic, southern Poland), trade relations with the

EU-15 have clearly intensified over the past

years. While ahead of and right after acces-

sion in 2004 no more than 1 mln t of grains

were transported from the new member states

to the EU-15, the number has been at just un-

der 11 mln t on average of the past four years,

with wheat at around 5.5 mln t and corn at

just under 5 mln t. In particular, Italy, Germa-

ny, the Netherlands and also Austria have be-

come important importers of corn from the

EU-13, most notably from Hungary, Poland

and the Balkan countries. With regard to

wheat, it is mainly Hungary, Poland, the

Czech Republic and, again, the Balkan coun-

tries Romania and Bulgaria, which have nota-

bly increased their exports to the EU-15. The

main importers are Germany, Italy and Spain.

Rapeseed trade flows are mainly dominated

by Germany, buying mainly from its neigh-

bours Poland and Czech Republic as well as

from Hungary.

However, the scenario that imported goods

from the eastern part of the EU replaced

western crops that would then have no outlet

anymore did not occur since accession took

place. Instead, the imports were needed in or-

der to serve demand. First, grain demand from

the ethanol industry rose from practically zero

to around 10-11 mln t in 2013 (mostly corn

and wheat). And second, third country de-

mand for grain exports from the EU-15 has

increased substantially from the 2002/03 to

2005/06 average of around 18 mln t to the

2010/11 to 2013/14 average of almost 24 mln

t. Only demand from the animal production

sector has declined over the observed period.

While production and trade have substantially

increased since the mid-2000s, the livestock

sector has heavily suffered. A relatively posi-

tive development only took place in the poul-

try sector. Production has increased by 21%

in the EU-13 from 2.4 mln t in in 2005 to 2.9

mln t in 2013. Poland is the clear winner with

an increase of more than 600,000 t. Slovakia,

Croatia and Check Republic, though being

much smaller producers than Poland, reduced

their production heavily.

Cattle inventories decreased from 14.0 mln

heads in 2004 to 13.1 mln heads in 2013, a

minus of 6%. Romania and Slovakia stands

out with reductions of 800,000 (29%) and

125,000 heads, respectively. Poland is again

the country with the largest increase in abso-

lute numbers from 5.3 mln to 5.6 mln heads.

Hog inventories suffered the most and de-

creased by 40% from 38 to 25 mln head. The

largest decrease occurred in Poland which

alone decreased inventories by 7.4 mln head

(from 18.4 to 11.0 mln head). The only major

country with increasing inventories was Ro-

mania. There, hog inventories increased by

2% (from 5.1 to 5.2 mln head). Interestingly,




10

the hog inventories in the EU-15 remained

stable in the same period.

Gross value added of the agricultural indus-

try increased by 17% from 2004 – 2013 forthe EU-13. This indicates that profitability is

increasing. Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Re-

public and Estonia (12%, 9%, 9%, 9%) lead

the development in this respect. All in all, the

increases (or improvements) in farms size,

gross value added, yield and infrastructure

indicate a development towards more profita-

ble agriculture in the EU-13. If technology

adoption and structural change continue and

investments in infrastructure will be further

increased the EU-13 shows potential for in-

creasing agricultural production and exports

even further. The past 10 years have shown

that demand for this region’s crops is steadily

rising both in the EU and in the rest of the

world.

With Compliments,

ADM Germany GmbH



ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review July 31, 2014

2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/13 2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/13

WORLD TOTAL GRAIN (incl. Rice)*** 2,445.8 2,466.7 2,267.7 703.7 702.0 690.4

USA 429.3 433.5 354.0 58.1 59.1 60.1

Canada 49.8 66.2 51.6 13.9 15.8 14.9

Argentina 48.7 45.0 47.6 10.5 9.7 10.7

Australia 35.7 42.0 35.2 19.1 19.2 18.1

China 496.6 489.3 476.2 93.7 92.8 91.5

India 241.6 242.5 240.1 99.9 98.9 97.4

Russia 92.5 87.0 66.1 41.0 40.5 37.1

Ukraine 58.8 60.8 42.7 14.7 15.2 14.1

EU-28 308.2 302.4 279.8 57.7 57.2 57.2

WORLD WHEAT (Jul/Jun)*** 705.2 714.2 657.7 222.9 220.4 216.2

USA 54.2 58.0 61.7 18.7 18.3 19.8

Canada 27.7 37.5 27.2 9.3 10.4 9.5

Argentina 12.5 10.5 9.3 4.2 3.5 3.6

Australia 24.6 27.0 22.9 13.8 13.5 13.0

China 124.0 121.9 121.0 24.2 24.1 24.3

India 95.9 93.5 94.9 30.6 30.0 29.9

FSU-12 102.2 103.8 77.3 47.4 47.6 43.9

Russia 57.6 52.1 37.7 24.2 24.0 21.3

Ukraine 22.0 22.3 15.8 6.2 6.5 5.6

Kazakhstan 15.2 16.5 11.3 12.7 13.0 12.3

EU-28 150.7 144.1 134.7 26.6 25.7 25.8

WORLD CORN (Sep/Aug)*** 981.0 984.4 868.8 177.3 178.1 177.2

USA 352.1 353.7 273.8 33.9 35.5 35.4

Argentina 26.0 24.0 27.0 3.7 3.4 4.0

Brazil 74.0 78.0 81.5 14.8 15.5 15.8

China 222.0 218.5 205.6 36.8 36.3 35.0

South Africa 13.5 14.5 12.4 3.2 3.2 3.2

Ukraine 26.8 29.9 18.6 4.7 4.8 4.4

EU-28 67.8 64.4 58.2 9.6 9.7 9.9

WORLD BARLEY (Jul/Jun)*** 131.9 145.1 130.0 49.0 50.5 50.3

USA 4.1 4.7 4.8 1.1 1.2 1.3

Canada 7.3 10.2 8.0 2.3 2.7 2.8Australia 7.5 9.5 7.5 3.8 3.9 3.6

Russia 15.7 15.3 14.0 9.0 8.7 8.8

Ukraine 8.5 7.3 6.9 3.1 3.2 3.3

EU-28 57.6 59.6 55.2 12.5 12.3 12.5

Argentina 3.9 4.8 5.0 1.0 1.3 1.5

WORLD RICE (Milled) (Jan/Dec)*** 479.4 477.5 471.7 161.5 160.6 158.0

USA 7.2 6.1 6.3 1.2 1.0 1.1

China 144.0 142.3 143.0 30.6 30.3 30.1

India 104.0 106.3 105.2 43.8 43.5 42.4

Indonesia 37.7 37.4 36.6 12.2 12.1 12.2

WORLD TOTAL OILSEEDS*** 521.9 503.9 474.6 234.6 229.5 226.8

WORLD SOYBEANS (Sep/Aug)*** 304.8 283.9 268.0 117.2 113.0 109.3

USA 103.4 89.5 82.6 34.0 30.7 30.8

Argentina 54.0 54.0 49.3 19.6 20.0 19.4

Brazil 91.0 87.5 82.0 30.5 29.9 27.7

China 10.8 11.9 12.6 6.0 6.6 7.2

India 10.5 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.9 10.7

WORLD RAPESEED (Jul/Jun)*** 70.2 71.2 63.6 36.7 36.2 36.3

Canada 14.5 18.0 13.9 7.9 8.0 8.8

Australia 3.5 3.8 4.1 2.7 2.7 3.3

China 8.7 8.4 8.0 4.6 4.6 4.4

India 7.7 7.1 6.0 7.1 7.1 6.1

EU-28 23.1 21.1 19.6 6.7 6.6 6.3

Ukraine 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6

WORLD SUNSEED (Sep/Aug)*** 40.7 42.9 36.1 24.7 24.6 23.8

Argentina 2.9 2.3 3.1 1.6 1.4 1.6

Russia 9.8 10.4 8.0 7.5 7.4 6.5

Ukraine 10.9 11.5 8.8 5.6 5.2 5.4

EU-28 8.3 8.9 6.8 4.4 4.5 4.3

Sources: USDA, Stats. Canada, ABARE, own Estimates * Estimate ** Forecast *** Sum as USDA

11

Table 1: World Crop Production

Production (mln tons) Area (mln ha)




2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 2013/14

WORLD 151.6 164.3 WORLD 115.2 125.0

EXPORTERS EXPORTERS

USA 24.5 32.2 USA 43.2 48.3

Canada 21.0 22.5 Argentina 16.0 13.5

Argentina 6.5 2.0 Brazil 20.0 20.5

Australia 19.0 19.5 South Africa 2.2 3.0

Russia 19.5 18.5 Ukraine 16.0 20.0

Ukraine 9.0 9.5 India 2.5 3.5

Kazakhstan 6.0 8.4 EU-28 2.0 2.2

EU-28 28.0 30.5 Russia 3.5 4.0

India 3.5 5.9 Paraguay 2.3 1.8

IMPORTERS IMPORTERS

Brazil 6.5 7.0 Mexico 10.9 11.5

Mexico 3.5 4.6 Colombia 4.2 4.5

South Korea 4.2 4.3 Egypt 6.5 7.0

Japan 6.0 6.2 Iran 4.8 5.0

Indonesia 7.5 7.4 South Korea 9.5 10.0

Iraq 3.0 3.4 Japan 16.0 15.5

Egypt 10.6 10.3 Taiwan 4.2 4.2

Morocco 3.0 3.9 EU-28 13.0 14.5

Algeria 6.0 6.9 China 3.0 3.5EU-28 5.0 3.8

China 3.0 7.0

Source: USDA Source: USDA

2014/15 2013/14

WORLD 20.3 22.6

EXPORTERS

USA 0.2 0.3

Canada 0.8 1.6

Australia 4.7 6.0

Russia 3.5 2.7

Ukraine 2.2 2.5

EU-28 5.8 5.8

Argentina 2.5 2.7Kazakhstan 0.4 0.4

IMPORTERS

USA 0.5 0.4

China 3.0 3.8

Japan 1.3 1.3

Jordan 0.7 1.0

Saudi Arabia 7.5 9.5

Iran 1.0 0.5

Tunesia 0.1 0.6

Source: USDA

2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 2013/14

WORLD 113.3 111.6 WORLD 13.6 14.1

EXPORTERS EXPORTERS

USA 45.6 44.1 Canada 8.1 8.1

Argentina 8.5 8.5 Australia 2.7 2.9

Brazil 45.0 45.8 EU-28 0.4 0.3

Paraguay 4.3 4.3 Ukraine 1.9 2.2

USA 0.2 0.2

IMPORTERS IMPORTERS

Mexico 3.7 3.7 USA 0.8 0.9

China 73.0 69.0 Mexico 1.5 1.5

Japan 2.8 2.9 China 3.5 4.0

South Korea 1.2 1.1 Japan 2.5 2.5

Taiwan 2.3 2.3 Pakistan 0.9 0.6

Thailand 2.1 1.9 UAE 0.7 0.7

Indonesia 2.0 2.0 EU-28 2.9 3.5

EU-28 12.5 12.7Source: USDA Source: USDA

Table 2: WHEAT TRADE (mln t) Table 3: CORN TRADE (mln t)

Table 5: SOYBEAN TRADE (mln t) Table 6: RAPESEED TRADE (mln t)

Table 4: BARLEY TRADE (mln t)

12






2014* 2013 2014* 2013 2014* 2013 2014* 2013

EU-28 23,071 21,148 8,273 8,863 1,575 1,474 32,919 31,485

EU-15 15,227 13,885 2,952 3,072 1,241 1,139 19,421 18,096

Germany 6,009 5,767 66 67 0 0 6,076 5,834

France 5,411 4,378 1,544 1,624 110 110 7,065 6,112

Italy 52 56 236 202 1,056 952 1,344 1,210

Netherlands 19 19 0 0 0 0 19 19

Belgium/Lux. 46 46 0 0 0 0 46 46

U.K. 2,346 2,217 0 0 0 0 2,346 2,217

Ireland 49 49 0 0 0 0 49 49

Denmark 703 681 0 0 0 0 703 681

Greece 8 8 101 101 0 0 110 110

Spain 45 57 907 980 2 2 954 1,039

Portugal 0 0 20 21 0 0 20 21

Austria 173 198 77 77 73 75 323 350

Sweden 305 335 0 0 0 0 305 335

Finland 62 74 0 0 0 0 62 74

EU-13 7,844 7,263 5,321 5,791 334 335 13,499 13,388

Poland 2,952 2,904 5 5 0 0 2,957 2,909

Czech Republic 1,320 1,423 59 64 5 5 1,383 1,492

Slovakia 320 343 208 234 19 19 547 596

Hungary 639 532 1,394 1,494 70 78 2,103 2,104

Estonia 166 157 0 0 0 0 166 157Latvia 210 275 0 0 0 0 210 275

Lithuania 529 554 0 0 0 0 529 554

Slovenia 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10

Romania 1,102 715 1,944 2,009 133 126 3,179 2,850

Bulgaria 534 286 1,628 1,896 0 0 2,162 2,182

Croatia 63 64 84 89 107 107 254 260

Source: ADM Germany GmbH * Estimates

14

Table 8: EU-28 OILSEED PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t)

RAPESEED SUNSEED SOYBEANS TOTAL 3




Wheat

Wheat flour *

Durum wheat

Semolina *

BarleyMalt *

Corn

Rye

Rye flour *

Oats

Sorghum

Others

Total

Source: EU-Commission * in grain equivalent

ImportExport

(incl. Food Aid)

EU-27

01/07/2013 - 23/07/2013

15

763

93

6

0

0

0

EU-28

01/07/2014 - 22/07/2014

Export

(incl. Food Aid)

Import

7890

17

1

0

3

0

1,1641,673

87

1

184

0

10

891

0

0

0

0

0

221 312

1,026 709

47 1

68 55

0 0

888

2,281

3

0

28

0

1,085

Table 9: EU-27 EXPORT AND IMPORT COMMITMENTS (in 1,000 t)

0 4

0 0

0

0

0

3

ADM Germany Market Review 2014 07

Documents

eu wheat

wheat trade

grain eu maize

barley trade

eu accession

eu malting barley exports

feed wheat price

malting barley prices