ADICA CONSULTING, LLC 2021 Midwest Road, Suite 200 Telephone: +1 (630) 705-3060 Oak Brook, IL 60523 USA Facsimile: +1 (630) 705-3061 Website: www.adica.com Email: [email protected]Training Report Presented to: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and PT Indokoei International, Jakarta, Indonesia for: Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV organized at APJ PLN Bogor, Indonesia, during 22 January – 2 February 2007 2 February 2007 Submitted by: ADICA Consulting, LLC The Ultimate in Strategic Analysis
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ADICA CONSULTING, LLC 2021 Midwest Road, Suite 200 Telephone: +1 (630) 705-3060 Oak Brook, IL 60523 USA Facsimile: +1 (630) 705-3061
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and
PT Indokoei International, Jakarta, Indonesia for:
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV organized at APJ PLN Bogor, Indonesia, during 22 January – 2 February 2007
2 February 2007
Submitted by:
ADICA Consulting, LLC The Ultimate in Strategic Analysis
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................3 2. SCOPE OF THE TRAINING..............................................................................................3 3. FACILITIES, WORKING CONDITIONS AND PARTICIPATION.................................6 4. TRAINING STAFF .............................................................................................................6 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................................7 6. ANNEX I - TRAINING SCHEDULE...............................................................................9 7. ANNEX II - TRAINEE PRESENTATIONS OF WASP-IV REFERENCE CASES FOR
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nineteen staff of the national electricity company PT. PLN (Persero) were trained on how to apply the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) Package for determining the power generating system expansion plan that meets demand at minimum cost while satisfying user-specified constraints for the electricity system in Indonesia. The course participants were also guided through the development of a WASP Reference Case and several Sensitivity Analysis Cases using country specific data from Indonesia. The training was completed in accordance with the agreed schedule from 22 January until 2 February 2007. Upon completion of the training, the course staff provided the trainees a copy of the lectures presented, WASP cases developed during the course, as well as various support material to be further used for actual WASP studies and for energy planning activities in general. 2. SCOPE OF THE TRAINING Objectives of the Training The main objective of the assignment was to train PLN staff on the use of the WASP-IV software for conducting power generating system expansion planning in Indonesia. Presentation of WASP Methodology WASP is the most well-known and widely used optimization model for examining medium- to long-term expansion options for electrical generating systems. National electric power utilities and electricity regulation agencies in many countries, as well as The World Bank and other international institutions and organizations, regularly use WASP to help examine long-term generation expansion plans. Nowadays, over 90 countries and 12 international organizations use WASP. The most recent version of the software, WASP-IV, includes additional features compared to the previous version, namely the calculation of environmental emissions associated with electricity generation and the possibility of imposing development limitations related to the use of various types of fuels, the electricity generation and the environmental emissions by different power plants. These new features allow a very accurate modeling of particular constraints existent in various countries including Indonesia. The WASP methodology utilizes probabilistic simulation for estimating power generating system production costs, unserved energy costs, and reliability, linear programming technique for determining optimal dispatch policy satisfying the user-specified constraints on fuel availability, electricity generation, and environmental emissions by groups of plants, and the dynamic programming method of optimization for comparing the costs of alternative system expansion policies. The WASP computer program includes the following modules (Figure 1): LOADSY (Load System Description), processes information describing electric load for the power system over the study period.
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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FIXSYS (Fixed System Description), processes information describing the existing generation system and any predetermined additions or retirements, as well as information on any constraints imposed by the user on environmental emissions, fuel availability or electricity generation by some plants. VARSYS (Variable System Description), processes information describing the various generating plants which are to be considered as candidates for expanding the generation system. CONGEN (Configuration Generator), calculates all possible year-to-year combinations of expansion candidate additions which satisfy certain input constraints and which in combination with the fixed system can satisfy the annual loads. CONGEN also calculates the basic economic loading order of the combined list of FIXSYS and VARSYS plants. MERSIM (Merge and Simulate), considers all configurations put forward by CONGEN and uses probabilistic simulation of system operation to calculate the electricity generation by each plant and associated production costs, energy-not-served and system reliability for each configuration. In the process, any limitations imposed on some groups of plants for their environmental emissions, fuel availability or electricity generation are also taken into account. The dispatching of plants is determined in such a way that plant availability, maintenance requirement, spinning reserve requirements and all the group-limitations are satisfied with minimum cost. DYNPRO (Dynamic Programming Optimization), determines the optimum expansion plan based on previously derived operating costs along with input information on capital costs, energy-not-served cost and economic parameters and reliability criteria.
Figure 1 Modular Structure of WASP-IV Computer Software
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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REPROBAT (Report Writer of WASP in a Batched Environment), writes a report summarizing the total or partial results for the optimum or near optimum power system expansion plan and for fixed expansion schedules. The modular structure of WASP-IV permits the user to monitor intermediate results, avoiding waste of large amounts of computer time due to input data errors. The information from one module is passed to the subsequent modules through binary files. Each module also produces its own printable output, which can be viewed on display or printed by the user to detect input data errors.
Organization of a Two-week Training Course on WASP-IV ADICA Consulting, LLC partnered with PT Indokoei International in organizing a 2-week training course on the most recent version of the WASP software for 19 participants from PLN. The training schedule is provided in Annex I while the list of participants is given in Annex II. The training consisted of 18 lectures on the principles of power system expansion planning and use of the WASP-IV software, as well as work sessions to apply the software for analyzing six power generating systems in Indonesia. The course participants received assistance for the installation of the WASP-IV software on their own computers, creation/deletion/back-up/restoration of system expansion cases and on the use of all mod The following expansion cases were analyzed for the Indonesian power generating system:
1. Java Bali 2. Kalbar – West Kalimantan 3. Kaltim & Kalselteng – East, South and Central Kalimantan 4. Sumatera 5. Sulselrabar – South, Southeast and West Sulawesi 6. Suluttenggo – North and Central Sulawesi
For each expansion case, a team comprised of two to five trainees prepared a “Reference Case” to assess the least cost generation expansion plan during the period 2007-2026, using country specific data for the electric load and existing generating system description, as well as for expansion candidates (e.g., coal, combined cycle, geothermal, hydro). For additional expansion candidates (e.g., nuclear power) for which country specific data were not available, the technical and economic parameters provided as input data for WASP were assessed on the basis of international references. The trainees also performed “Sensitivity Analysis” to assess the influence on the optimal expansion plan of possible future changes in the main WASP-IV input parameters, e.g., Economic Information (fuel prices, investment cost, O&M cost), Economic Parameters (discount rates, escalation rates), and Level of Quality of Supply (reserve margins, LOLP constraints, and ENS cost.
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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During the execution of this task, the course staff advised participants on how to use the WASP software in order to find the least cost expansion plans for the above-mentioned cases, and rectify problems that were encountered while running the software. ADICA provided each participant a CD containing lectures presented at the course, the input data and results of the WASP cases developed by the course participants and additional support files to be used in the future energy and electricity planning activities. 3. FACILITIES, WORKING CONDITIONS AND PARTICIPATION The training was organized at the APJ PLN office in Bogor, Indonesia, which provided an excellent venue for the course. The administrative staff from PT Indokoei and PLN did an excellent job in preparing the training facilities; were responsive to the evolving needs during the course; and provided daily logistical oversight, support and guidance. The course staff is very impressed with the performance of the course participants. The group performed exceptionally well and exhibited:
1. Strong capability and commitment to learning, 2. High level of attention throughout the course, 3. Quick understanding of new concepts, 4. Natural ability and interest to work together in discussing generation planning
concepts, sharing experience and developing best solutions, and 5. Focus on obtaining knowledge and skills necessary to provide decision-making
support for Senior Management. The leadership and support of Senior Management from PLN and JICA also contributed greatly to the success of this training event. 4. TRAINING STAFF The training was carried out by two international consultants with extensive experience in the use of the WASP software for generation expansion planning, including: Bruce Hamilton President, ADICA Consulting LLC Mr. Hamilton has an extensive background in the development of advanced computing techniques and analysis of energy systems, including the leadership he provided for energy and environmental projects conducted, in more than twenty countries, for the World Bank, USDOE, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Mr. Hamilton's previous position was as Head of the Energy Modeling, Databanks and Capacity Building Unit at the IAEA, where he directed multi-disciplinary teams in the development of technology databases and analytical software (including WASP-IV), and conduct of technical assistance projects focused on energy sector development and environmental assessment. Mr. Hamilton
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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organized regional projects in Africa, Asia & the South Pacific, Europe, Latin America, and West Asia to address energy/electricity planning needs of developing countries. As a course director and lecturer, he trained over 500 experts from 40 countries in the areas of demand forecasting, electricity system expansion planning, energy policy analysis and strategy development, environmental assessment, and financial analysis of energy options. In recent years, he led training and analysis activities for power sector restructuring and electricity market analysis studies in Europe, Asia and the South Pacific. Mladen Zeljko Department Head, Energy Generation and Conversion Energy Institute “Hrvoje Požar” (EIHP), Zagreb, Croatia Dr. Zeljko manages a department at EIHP that is responsible for research into problems of power system expansion, deregulation in the electricity market, system development and operation planning within a competitive environment. He is among the most experienced users of the IAEA’s WASP-IV software and is regularly recruited by the IAEA to serve as an invited expert for technical assistance missions and training courses on the use of this software. In August 2002, Mr. Zeljko joined with staff from ADICA Consulting in organizing a two-week training course on WASP-IV for Tenaga Nasional Berhad, in Malaysia. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS We believe that the Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV was successfully completed. With the trainees’ strong effort, they developed a good understanding of the WASP-IV functionality and successfully produced initial model results. However, it is necessary for the course participants to gain additional experience by following-up the training with real work in applying WASP-IV for an actual study. With the above comments in mind, we offer the following recommendations for consideration by PLN:
1. The energy planning staff in Indonesia should collect and enter into WASP improved technical, economic and environmental data for existing units and expansion candidates.
2. An Indonesian WASP Users Meeting should be organized annually. If desired, the meeting could be made open to other WASP users from the region (e.g., Malaysia, Korea).
3. Additional training should be organized for energy planning staff at PLN on the following subjects: a. Energy Demand Forecasting using the MAED software, b. Electricity System Operation and Pricing using the GTMax software, c. Environmental Analysis, and d. Energy Project Finance.
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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We would like to thank JICA and PLN for the opportunity to collaborate in this training event. We appreciate the strong effort by the course participants, excellent working conditions, superb logistical support from Indokoei, and gracious hospitality from all. It has been a pleasure working together. We are proud of our joint success and look forward to our continued collaboration.
Sincerely yours, Bruce P. Hamilton President, ADICA Consulting LLC
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
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ANNEX I
Training Schedule
Intensive Training on Generation Planning using WASP-IV
10
WASP-IV TRAINING (Week 1)
Time Monday
22 January Tuesday
23 January Wednesday 24 January
Thursday 25 January
Friday 26 January
09:00 - 10:30
CCOOUURRSSEE OOPPEENNIINNGG
Welcome / Introductions and Discussion of Course
Objectives
LLEECCTTUURREE 33
Real world applications of
WASP-IV
LLEECCTTUURREE 66
VARSYS module of WASP-IV
LLEECCTTUURREE 88
CONGEN module of WASP-IV
LLEECCTTUURREE 1111
DYNPRO module of WASP-IV
10:30 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 12:15
LLEECCTTUURREE 11
Overview of WASP-IV generation system expansion planning
Total Installed Capacity (MW) 22236 22236 26736 30486 33221
Beban Puncak (MW) 16587 17730 18955 20262 21660
Peak Load Growth % 4.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
Reserve Margin % 34 25 41 50 53
Load Factor % 75.3 74.5 74.0 74.0 74.0
Production (GWh) 108249 114933 122871 131346 140412
Production Growth % 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.9 6.9
1) 2) 3) 4)
Sumber : Buku PASA 2007-2011
4
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
1) 2007 : PLTP Drajat-3 (110 MW) Total : 110 MW
2) 2009 : PLTP Kamojang unit 4( 60 MW), PLTP Wayang Windu (110 MW), PLTU Bali Utara unit 1-2 (2x65 MW), PLTU Labuhan unit 1,2 (2x300 MW), PLTU Teluk Naga unit 1,2(2x300 MW), PLTU Jabar Selatan unit 1,2 (2x300 MW), PLTU Jabar Utara unit 1,2 (2x 300 MW), PLTU Rembang unit 1,2 (2x300 MW), PLTU Jatim Selatan unit 1,2 (2x300 MW),PLTU Tj. Awar-Awar unit 1,2 (2x300 MW) Total : 4500 MW
3) 2010 : PLTP Dieng (60 MW), PLTP Patuha (120 MW), PLTU Bali Utara unit1,2 (2x130 MW), PLTP Bedugul (10 MW), PLTU Suralaya (600 MW), PLTU Teluk Naga unit 3 (300 MW), PLTU Jabar Selatan unit 3 (300 MW), PLTU Jabar Utara unit 3 (300 MW), PLTU Paiton 600 MW, PLTU Tj. Jati Baru (600 MW, PLTU Cirebon (600 MW). Total : 3750 MW
Scenario Assumption1. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage 2 X 500 MW Fixed in 2013 and 2014)2. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage in VARSYS)3. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage in VARSYS and Coal Limitted Up To 40 Units)
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
Scenario Assumption1. Loads Demand in Bruto (Net Load Demand + Aux Plant+Losses)2. Load Growth 6.9% from 2007 to 20263. No Change in LDC (No Demand side management )4. Availability for Energy Resources (Coal, LNG, Oil, Nuclear)
Scenarios1. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage 2 X 500 MW Fixed in 2013 and 2014)2. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage in VARSYS)3. Variable Expansion (Pump Storage in VARSYS and Coal Limitted Up To 40 Units)
6
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
PU0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
PU
SCREENING CURVES
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unit Capacity Factor [%]Leve
lized
Cos
t [$/
kW-
yr]
Nuclear Coal PS gas turbin LNG
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
System Reliability Criteria
Reserve Margin :Minimum = 25% Maximum = 40%
Spinning ReserveLOLP = 0.274%, Equal to 1 day/yearCost of ENS = 0.85 $/KWh
1 (Pump Storage Fixed in 2013 & 2014) 49,858,404 42,600 2,250 - 7,050 - 2 (Pump Storage in VARSYS) 48,189,652 43,200 3,000 - 6,600 - 3 (Pump Storage in VARSYS and Coal Limitted) 48,507,652 24,000 12,750 9,000 7,050 -
G150 PUMPCASE C6H LNG N10H
1. Case 1 is the highest cost than case 2 & 32. Case 2 is the least cost than other cases but the level of polution is higher than cases 33. Case 3 is the medium cost than case 1 & 2, but we can minimize the level of polution from
coal power plant
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
Plan for The Future Activities on The WASP StudyModelling the hydro condition more accurateCompletting the data for WASP model such as emission, environmental data, etcStudy other different cases for PLN Java Bali System
10
JAVA BALI TEAM WASP-IV TRAINING COURSE
*) FORUM PERENCANAAN JAWA BALI 2006**) REALISASI
Unit 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
POPULATION * 10 3̂ 126,580 129,207 131,783 133,618 135,519
BBR3 BBR2 GAM1 GAS NUCLInvest Cost $/kW 1226.40 1103.76 1226.40 524.025 2584.60IDC % 18.46 18.46 18.46 14.13 22.62Plant Life Years 27 27 27 25 30Construction Time Years 4 4 4 3 5Discount rate 12% (based year 2007)
Data for Dynpro Input
6
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better LifeReport About Optimal
Solution
These are the comparison of optimal and non optimal solution :
Non-Optimal solution
Optimal solution
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better LifeSensitivity Analysis
For Sensitivity analysis, economic parameter that is used is escalation rates. The escalation assumed to be happened in coal, gas and oil cost (fuel prices). It is assumed that in year 2010, 2014,2018, 2022 and 2026, the escalation rates for coal is 5% while for gas and oil are 2.5%.
Opt solution without esc.
Opt solution with esc.
7
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better LifeConclusion (1)
By using WASP IV for Expansion Planning,with many configurations of 5 candidates plant, finally found the optimum solution that gave least cost is :
Optimal solution
Nuclear candidate can’t be included in the system because its investment cost is too high and can’t compete with the other candidates
By 5% escalation for coal cost and 2.5% for gas and oil cost, it’s found that the operation cost higher 54.7% than without escalation
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better LifeRecomendations
For nuclear generation, should be a continuation study because in big size, it can be an efficient generation.
8
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better Life
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa8,212 MW (Steam) Japan
Plan For the Future Activities
We expect WASP IV program can be used for long
term planning generation in West Kalimantan
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better Life
9
WEST KALIMANTANTEAM 3
Electricity For
A Better LifeNon Optimal Solution
BackGo to Optimal solution
SOLUTION # 1 VARIABLE ALTERNATIVES BY YEAROBJ.FUN. LOLP
Because the difference of High Forecasting Total Cost to Medium Forecasting is 7.4 %, High Forecasting WASP Result is Recommended (when there is sufficient fund)
Increasing of total cost with coal price escalation is lower than escalation ratio
11
ConclusionsConclusions
Installed Capacity in 2026 is : 2 812 MW Coal Steam Turbin644 MW Gas Combine Cycle150 MW Oil Combine Cycle100 MW Oil Gas Turbine
Total Candidate Plant added until 2026 (6 Coal Steam Turbin 65 MW; 9 Coal Steam Turbin 200 MW; 3 Gas Combine Cycle 150 MW; 1 Oil Combine Cycle 150 MW; 2 Oil Gas Turbine 50 MW)
Total Cummulative Cost until 2026 is 2 349 M USD and total Energy is 161 151 GWh. {Rp. 136 /kwh (2007’s value)}
Because flexibility operation is needed, Combine Cycle and Gas Turbine should be built by ourselves.
Plan after WASP StudiesPlan after WASP Studies
Determine Plant Location by Load Flow, Short Circuit and Stability Analysis
Calculate new transmission lines, substations and distribution network needed.
Make Financial, and Risk Management Analysis.
12
Company
LOGO
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
1
Study Generation Expansion Planning ofMinahasa SystemBy Ikhsan & Marlon
Agriculture (Real) Agriculture (Forecasting)Mining&Quarrying (Real) Mining&Quarrying (Forecasting)Manufacturing Industries (Real) Manufacturing Industries (Forecasting)Eletric, Gas &Water Supply (Real) Eletric, Gas &Water Supply (Forecasting)Construction (Real) Construction (Forecasting)Trade, Restauran&Hotel (Real) Trade, Restauran&Hotel (Forecasting)Transportation & Communication (Real) Transportation & Communication (Forecasting)Finance, Rent Of Build.&Business Service (Real) Finance, Rent Of Build.&Business Service (Forecasting)Services (Real) Services (Forecasting)Total Include Oil&Gas & Its Product
Growth
4.5%
9.1%
4.9%
7.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product
12electricity For a better life
Description of The Existing System & Future Description of The Existing System & Future Options for Electricity SupplyOptions for Electricity Supply
7
13electricity For a better life
Existing Thermal Power PlantExisting Thermal Power Plant
3909390939092400Heat Rate At Minimum Load (kcal/kWh)
Peak Load + M in ReseveM argin (15 %)Annual Peak Load
24electricity For a better life
System Reliability Criteria System Reliability Criteria -- ContCont
Spinning ReserveSpinning Reserve
SR = Largest Capacity Block Already
Cost of Cost of EEnergy nergy NNot ot SServederved
Cost = 0.5 US$/kWh
13
25electricity For a better life
Generation Expansion Plan with Generation Expansion Plan with WASP WASP IVIV
26electricity For a better life
DynproDynpro InputInput
14
27electricity For a better life
DynproDynpro Input Input -- ContCont
28electricity For a better life
Optimal SolutionOptimal Solution
15
29electricity For a better life
Sensitivity AnalysesSensitivity Analyses
Sensitivity Analysis demands on the external and internal factor
For Example :
1. Government Policy about fuel price, interest rate, GDP Growt & escalation
2. Hydrology3. Technology4. Diversification Energy5. Least Cost Model
Case :
The management of the utility makes a rule that the minimum capacity of the power plant is more than 10 % of the peak load in a system. The peak Load of South Sulawesi is 445 MW in 2006. So, it is analysed if the 25 MW Coal Power Plant wouldn’t be in the system.
1. WASP could help the management for making decision.2. The Objectif Function Cummulative of the case is US$ 2749472. While the
objective function system with 25 MW is US$ 2674720 .
Recommedations :
1. WASP should be aplicated in the sistem planning of all PLN’s region.
2. It is recommendated to the decision maker to consider operating25 MW Coal Power Plant because the cost of operating 25 MW Coal Power Plant is cheaper than “without” 25 MW Coal Power Plant.
32electricity For a better life
Plan for the Future Activities Plan for the Future Activities on the WASP Studyon the WASP Study
1. All participants need a forum for changing information about WASP problem.
2. We want to make standart of some parameter which is used in WASP
17
33electricity For a better life
Terima Kasih
Losari Beach 2006
1
Generation Expansion Planning of SumateraElectricity for a better life
1. Cerenti - Riau ( 1.675,6 juta ton )2. Sawah Lunto - Sumbar ( 205,9 juta Ton )3. Muara Enim - Sumsel ( 9.538 juta Ton )4. Musi Banyu Asin - Sumsel ( 3.313 juta Ton )5. Jambi ( 367 juta Ton )6. Bengkulu Selatan ( 13,867 juta Ton )7. Bengkulu Utara ( 30,22 juta Ton )8. Blambangan Umpu - Lampung ( 131,27 juta Ton )9. Kec. Aceh Barat - NAD ( 1.074,543 juta Ton )