Additive Manufacturing: 3D Printers Continue to Get Better and Cheaper NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE MT 5009 GROUP PROJECT JANI ADOLFSSON JHOANAMEL MANALILI JULIUS RIIKONEN JOHANNES NOEKE JONI SALMELA TOBIAS KOBOLD
Additive Manufacturing: 3D Printers Continue to Get Better and Cheaper
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPOREMT 5009 GROUP PROJECT
J A N I A D O L FS S O N J H O A N A M E L M A N A L I L I J U L I U S R I I KO N E N
J O H A N N E S N O E K E J O N I S A L M E L A TO B I A S KO B O L D
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 2
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 3
Additive manufacturing (AM) announced as
Additive Manufacturing – Worth the hype?
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/513691/prenatal-dna-sequencing/http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/513716/additive-manufacturing/
“AM has a growing market capability and it is expected to increase its market share rapidly to about 40% by 2015.”
3D printing provides manufacturers with the ability to compete by creating, and the opportunity to turn product development into a core strength”
3D printing “has the potential to revolutionizethe way we do almost everything” US president Barack Obama in 2013
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 4
AM – Another way to look on the hype
Is the market proving this hype?
2009 2011 2013 2015 Forecast
Google trends: Showing how often a particular search-term was searched
3D Printing
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=3d%20printing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 5
200
500
1000
2300
1.6 3.1
6.3
13,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rev
en
ue
in b
illio
n $
Pri
nte
rs s
old
in t
ho
usa
nd
s
Year
Printers sold
Revenue
CAGR(2015-2018)Printers sold: 91%
Revenue: 88%
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 6
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/12/18/gartner-forecasts-the-3d-printer-market-will-be-13-4b-by-2018/
Additive Manufacturing market (I)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gro
wth
rat
e p
.a. i
n %
Year
Yearly growth rate
Revenue
Printers sold
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 7
Enormous market growth will continue at least for the next 4-6 years Additive manufacturing is or will become economically feasible
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/12/18/gartner-forecasts-the-3d-printer-market-will-be-13-4b-by-2018/
Additive Manufacturing market (II)
AM – Impacts on the industry
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 8
• Cost-effective, less wasteful, rapid manufacturing of parts or components that can be customized based
• Development an agile manufacturing which will reduce the leadtime from conception to the production (Time-to-Market)
• 3D printers have chance to revolutionize low-volume manufacturing of complex parts
• Usage in biomedical application, customized manufacturing and by application in automobile and aerospace.
Poss
ible
Imp
acts
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 9
Additive manufacturing – What to be questioned
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 10
AP
PR
OA
CH
• AM – Breakthrough?
• What are the cost and performance dynamics of 3D printers?
• How does these dynamics impact on applications?
• Why do the economics of 3D printing change?
Basic principle of AM
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 11
Design
Finish
A digital model of the object is issued and
converted into a STL. file
3D Printer slices file into numerous digital cross-sectional, and builds the model by
joining together successive layers
Final 3D printed model is cleaned to remove
overhung material and is polished/painted and made ready for
use
Multiple technology approach: High variety
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 12
Applications
TechnologyMaterials
Automotive
Aerospace
Consumer
Medical
Industrial
Research
Stereo Lithography (SLA)
Laser sintering
Selective laser melting
Fused Disposition Melting
CLIP
Polymers
Metals and Alloys
Powders
Thermoplastics
Ceramics
Glass
Computing •Basis
Software •Basis
Hardware(Technolo
gy)
•Application depend
Materials• Application
depend
Ecosystem – not only one technology
AM as a result of improvements in different technology sectors
http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/28/understanding-the-3d-printing-ecosystem-breaking-it-down-and-building-it-up/
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 13
Improvement in computing technology/software as trailblazers for AM Directly: AM machine
Indirectly: supporting technology
Fields of improvement affecting AM
Processing power
Graphics capability
Machine control
Networking
AM – Computing as trailblazer
Gibson, Rosen, Strucker: Additive manufacturing technologies - rapid prototyping to direct digital manufacturing. New York: Springer, 2012
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General integration of an AM machine
Improvement Drivers Development
Processing power ICs Moore’s law
Graphics capability ICs Moore’s law
Machine control MEMS, Sensors More than Moore
Networking IoT, WiFi Explosion
Computing as trailblazer
http://softsupplier.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/image010.jpghttp://tarrysingh.com/2014/07/fog-computing-happens-when-big-data-analytics-marries-internet-of-things/
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 15
Computer-aided design are basis of every AM model
Beside improvements closed link to improvements in computing, CAD has improvement:
Realism
Usability and user interface
Speed
Accuracy
Complexity
Further improvement through open sourcing
Software / CAD as trailblazer
Improvements are aligned with improvements in computing
Google trends: 3D Printing open source
2011 2013 2015
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=3d%20printing%20open%20source
Gibson, Rosen, Strucker: Additive manufacturing technologies - rapid prototyping to direct digital manufacturing. New York: Springer, 2012
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• The first AM technology has been introduced in 1983
Why does MIT announced it 30 years later as breakthrough? Why is AM hyped for the last 3 years?
Computing & Software as trailblazer
2016 - 20201983 2013
• Improvements in computing and software as basis for all AM technologies
• Ability to start entering the market
• The prove of being a breakthrough technology will be made on the technology and application level
What will be the next improvements?
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Strength Surface finish Speed Cost
Today’s Limitations
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http://gizmodo.com/why-3d-printing-is-overhyped-i-should-know-i-do-it-fo-508176750
1. Improvements in surface fineness 2. Increase in detail rendition by thinner layers3. Improvements of material properties and range4. Cut down of construction time5. Elimination of rework6. Reduce costIM
PR
OV
EMEN
TS
Material 26%
indirect costs74%
Energy3%
Labor29%
Maschining59%
Overhead9%
What drives the quality and costs of additive manufacturing?
11/12/2015
Power source
(Laser, LED)
MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 19
Integrated circuits Sensors
Power source are the key technology and a big cost driver
Cost and quality drivers
Focus on power source and materials to enhance improvements
choice of material is crucial for the price
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
•Prof. Hong Minghui (NUS, Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering - Laser technology group)
•Q: Will Laser drive the cost and improvement development concerning AM?
•Example:• 3D Printing device mainly based on lasers for a specific application
Hypothesis: Cost and improvement of the 3D Printing device are directly related to lasers
Assumption: Melting point properties do not affect application
Why a general approach on technology and application is not feasible?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 20
Why a general approach on technology and application is not feasible?
Pri
nti
ng
spee
d [
cm3/h
]
Laser power output [W]
Laser
Improved laser
Improvement in laser power
Improvement in printing speed
1 2
Pri
nti
ng
tem
per
atu
re [
°C]
Laser power output [W]
Laser
Improved laser
3
Mel
tin
g p
oin
t[°C
]/
Lase
r o
utp
ut
[W]
Printing speed [cm3/h]
New material
Material usedLaser
Low-tech laser
General conclusion concerning cost and improvement dynamics of 3D printing can not be drawn. Investigation has to be made for each
• Technology • Application
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Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 22
Continuous Liquid Interface Production11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 23
http://carbon3d.com/
The CLIP Technology
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 24http://carbon3d.com/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uD0d1IPsF4&list=PLulOCUoJY0qqmc2wD_3EUP8Mm9T0IZHg_&index=4
TRADITIONAL SLA CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 25
CONTINUOUS MATERIAL PRODUCTION
Carbon 3D: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMkhVt_IWs4FSL3D: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkIMbio6El0
1
30
35
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CLIP Polyjet SLS SLA
Printers needed for production
Numberof Printers
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 26
The Game Changing Speed
This 51 mm diameter complex shapedstructure was produced with CLIP in 6,5 minutes
SLA SLS Polyjet CLIP
Speed (mm/h) 4 15 17 471
0255075
100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500
Spe
ed
(m
m/h
)
Speed Comparison
Speed (mm/h)
The speeds over 1000 mm/h are achievablewhen resolution is sacrificed
http://carbon3d.com/
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 27
Speed Leads to Cost Reductions in Production
TaskObject: A complex ball structureHeight: 50 mmPieces: 10Time available: 1h
10
5
32
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
50 100 200 250 500
# o
f P
rin
ters
Ne
ed
ed
Speed (mm/h)
Benefits of the Speed in Production
# of PrintersNeeded
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
50 100 200 250 500
Co
st o
f th
e A
sse
ts
Speed (mm/h)
Total Cost of the Assets
Total Cost ofthe Assets
Assuming the printer price 20 000 $
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 28
What Drives the Speed
DLP ProjectorSystem
”Deadzone” Material
Software
Improvements in- DMD micromirrors (MEMS)- UV-LEDs
Improvements in- Materials- Implementing thin films
O2
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 29
What Drives the Quality: Layerless Process
Isotropic Objects Smooth Surface Finish
What Drives the Quality- High resolution DLP system- Layerless process due to ”deadzone” formation- Software controlling the parameters- Material choice
CLIP: Materials
Wide range of photocurable polymers can be used
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 30
Soft, elastic materials Very rigid, impact resistant
Bioplastics Polymers reinfroced with Carbon Nanotubes orNanofibres
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 31
Partnership betweenCarbon3D and Ford
Google Ventures led the latest $100 M Funding round
• Founded 2013, Silicon Valley
• Hardware, software & molecular science
• Funding received: $ 141 M
• Patented CLIP Technology
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 32
Case study 1
What is Selective laser melting
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 34
• Metal powder and metal wires get melted by a Ytterbium fiberlaser
• Adding layer by layer• Material: Stainless steal, Titan,
special alloys+ physical behaviour like in conventional production
How it works:
Schubert “rapid prototyping and rapid tooling” (2014)
Better fuel nozzle by using 3D – General electric
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 35
• Must be heat resistant so made of strong alloys
• 1 part instead of 18 parts
• fuel nozzle can be 25% lighter and more reliable because of the shape
• Optimal shape - 5 times higher durability
• time reduced by 66%
www.geglobalresearch.com/innovation/3d-printing-creates-new-parts-aircraft-engines
http://3dprintingreviews.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ge-aviation-to-grow-better-fuel-nozzles.html
What drives performance?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 36
• Increase in pulse energy improves interlayer connection/strength
• The absolute pulse energy depends on the material
Laser Power
Material
No other material with lower melting point possible for the fuel nozzle, as heat resistance is essential
New material - less laser power
Strength!!!
Kietzmann, J. Business horizont (2015)
Thiesse, F. (2015)
What drives the speed?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 37
http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/science/article/pii/S0924013607004712
• more material can be bonded at the same time.
• causes higher printing speed
• higher specific energy density is necessary otherwise the material does not bond properly and gets weak
Higher Laser power needed
x
x
Thiesse, F. (2015)
Will there be higher power laser in the future?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 38
https://www.rp-photonics.com/highpowerfiberlasers.html
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Po
we
r O
utp
ut
[KW
]
Power output development of fiber laser
Increase in laser power will enable higher printing
speed
Expert forecast the same!!!
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2013 2018 2023
Spee
d in
cm
³/h
Speed of SLM
Key improvements• Higher accuracy and power
of lasers• Faster computing• Less post-processing effort
DMRC survey of 75 AM experts:
build speed will at least quadruple by 2018
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
What about the cost?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 40
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2010 2013 2017
In M
illio
n U
S$
Market of Fiber Lasers
20%
80%
Laser Market in 2013
FiberMarket
RemainingMarket
28%
72%
Laser Market in 2017
FiberMarket
http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=57806http://optics.org/news/6/7/37
Economies of scale so lasers will get cheaper
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2013 2018 2023
Co
st in
Eu
r/cm
³
Cost of SLM
material labor, maschining, Labor, Energy, Overhead
3.1
1.61.1
Prospective cost reduction of SLM
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 41
• Increasing competition for powder supply will reduce today's markups
• increasing volume will reduce production costs. (EOS)
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
Air craft engine – General electric
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 42
GE will invest 3.5 Billion Dollar in AM until 2020
http://3dprintingreviews.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ge-aviation-to-grow-better-fuel-nozzles.html
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2014 2020
100%
2000%
Spe
ed
co
mp
are
d t
o 2
01
4
GE's development of printing Speed
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts
3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes
b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle
a) Game changing speed: CLIP
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 43
Why Spare Parts? Aviation Industry Example
High service level target because of expensive downtime cost
Huge amount of parts
- > Extremely expensive supply chain, 400 000 USD per aircraft annually
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 44
Industries Which use 3D Printed Parts Already
Boeing:
◦ 30 3D-printed parts in the 787 Dreamliner Airplane
◦ 20000 3D-printed parts for 10 different military and commercial airplanes
General Motors:
◦ 85000 fuel nozzles for new Leap jet engines
◦ Expanding ist 3D printing stuff
◦ GE Aviation wants to produce 100000 additive parts by 2020
Airbus:
◦ 1000 aircraft 3D printed parts for their first Airbus A350XWB
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 45
3D Printing point of view from OEM and MRO
12%
7%
40%
49%
54%
60%
None
Improved part reliability
Increased spare part options (e.g. PMA or STC availability)
Improved part availability
Lower investment in inventory (e.g. parts, warehousing)
Lower cost for replacement parts
What benefits might the successful deployment of 3D printing technology bring to airline?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 46
Oliver Wyman, MRO Survey 2014
Service demand not possible to forecast with certainty
Service tradeoffs: Revenue, cost and service performance
80/20: Only 20 percent of spare parts used frequently
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 47
What Are the Challenges in Spare Part Industry
Time, Location, Extent and Consequences is Impossible to Forecast
Forecast is not accurate - How does this affect the cost?
◦ Time: Need components have to be available every time ->
◦ Location: Components need to be available near in every critical location
◦ Extent and consequence: Increases the number of SKU:s classified as critical
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 48
OEM
DC
Local DC
Expected demand
Total Inventory Cost = Number of Different SKUs x Volume of each SKU x Number of Locations
Airplane Industry Spare Parts: Price of 3D Printers goes Down and Replaces DC:s
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 49
OEM
DC
Local DC
Expected demand
Current situation
OEM
DC
Local DC
Expected demand
Economically feasible today
OEM
DC
Local DC
Expected demand
Economically feasible in near future
Total Inventory Cost With 3D = Number Different SKUs x Volume of each SKU x Number of Locations
Tradeoffs between Revenue, Cost and Performance
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 50
Current state
Static asset management
Dynamic asset management DAM
3D + DAM
Service level
Asset investment and
service costs
20/80 Rule of Spare Parts Inventory
Category percentage of Item
sales profit inventory cost
fast moving A -part 20% 80% small friction
slow moving B-part 50% 15% high
slow moving C-part 30% 5% high
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 51
20% are being used frequently, yet the availability of the parts should be 100%, which cause high inventory management cost.
Example: Airbus in Hamburg-Fuhlsbüttel is using only 80% a few years out of 120.000 parts. With the increasing numbers of produced aircraft models, slow moving parts will increase in number and this problem will be more urgent.
Rapid manufacturing and ist impact on supply chain management (2004) – M. Walter, J. Holmström, H. Yrjölä
Supply Chain Costs with Adaption of 3D Printing
ProductCategory
3D PrintingAdaption
%Saving
A-part 10% 70%
B-part 25% 78%
C-part 60% 85%
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 52
$- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00
C-Part
B-Part
A-Part
Total Supply Chain Cost Comparison by Product Category
Current
3D Printing
Impact of 3D printing on global supply chains by 2020, Bhasin, Varun; Bodla, Muhammad Raheel; 2014
Slow moving parts will be adoptedlargely and could save up to 85% oftotal supply chain cost, whereas fast moving parts adaption is low.
Questions???
Q&A
Thank u lah
Dankeschön
Kiitos
Appendix and additional data
APPENDIX
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP
4. 3D Printing for Glass
3. Laser market
History of additive manufacturing
1984 / 1986First AM approach
Stereolithographic (STL) /AM technology got patented
1988AM technology was made available for public
1996The term “3D printer” was
first used
2000First high definition printer
2006First self replicating 3D printer was
developed
2010The term “Additive manufacturing” and “3D printing” were used as synonyms
2013Announced as breakthrough technology by
MIT
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 56
http://blog.harbinger-systems.com/2014/11/3d-printing-captivates-the-consumer-market/
Additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 57
Sign
ific
ance
M
arke
t Im
pac
t
• Additive manufacturing enables cost-effective, less wasteful, rapid manufacturing of parts or components that can be customized based
• It becomes possible to develop an agile manufacturing which will reduce the lead time from conception to the production
• Additive manufacturing has a growing market capability and it is expected to increase its market share rapidly to about 40% by 2015.
• It is expected to see wider usage in biomedical application, customized manufacturing and by application in automobile and aerospace.
Additive manufacturing market (III)
1.1 1.21.7
2.2 2.5
4
6
7.5
10.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
in B
illio
n U
S$
3D service, products and materials market
Expected growth rate of 30%
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 58
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2017E
# o
f u
nit
inst
alle
d i
n k
3D Printer installed
CAGR: 95%
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/08/09/roundup-of-3d-printing-market-forecasts-and-estimates-2014/
Additive manufacturing market (IV)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 59
http://blog.luxresearchinc.com/blog/coveragearea/advanced-materials/page/2/
Additive manufacturing market – conclusion
1. Even market data differs depending on the institute conducted the research, some general conclusion can be drawn: A rapid market growth can be expected either this year or next year
This enormous market growth will continue at least for the next 4-6 years
Additive manufacturing is or will become economically feasible
2. But this market development rises many questions which have to be answered in the next years: As “some new technologies destroy both an existing economic system
and create a new one (Schumpeter, 1942)”, the future will show how Additive manufacturing will diffuse in our life, how it will affect exciting industries and how it will improve those.
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 60
Gartner Hype cycle
• Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications
• Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time
• Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle. Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 61
http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp#
Hype cycle for emerging industries
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 62
http://www.gartner.com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/document/3100227?ref=QuickSearch&sthkw=hype%20cycle%20emerging%20technology&refval=157030558&qid=dfda72a24788721c4351d7a1af6b3e21
Hype cycle for additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 63
http://www.gartner.com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/document/3100228?ref=QuickSearch&sthkw=Laser&refval=157030440&qid=af5f123168b20920048c109e0b1d5728
Additive manufacturing – market adaption
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 64
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP
4. 3D Printing for Glass
3. Laser market
Additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 66
Technology
ExtrusionLaser/LED
StereolithographySL
Selective laser sintering SLS
Carbon 3DSelective laser
melting
Fused deposition modeling FDM
Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
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• A wire shaped material is melted in a high temperature nozzle
• Plotter mechanism• Hard layers of plastic or metal
filaments can be created• Multiple jetting possible
Part
Building platform
Nozzle
FDM - Head
Coil
+ low cost+ Dual jetting possible - Slow process- Inconsistent material due to
the construction in layers
How it works:
Pro & Con
Stereolithography (SL)
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Pro & Con
• Based on photo polymerization• Photo reactive resin is cured by
using UV laser
+ Complex geometries are possible+ High resolution- Usually time consuming
How it works:
Selective laser melting
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 69
• Metal powder and metal wires get melted
• Adding layer by layer• Stainless steal, Titan, special
alloys
+ physical behaviour like in conventional production
- expensive
How it works:
Pro & Con
Selective laser sintering
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• High power laser fixes powders in a solid bond
• Plastic, glass powder, ceramic• Powder functions also a
supporting material
+ Complex structures are possible
- expensive
How it works:
Pro & Con
Additive manufacturing – materials
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 71
Commonly used materials
Plastics Metals Others
ThermosetsComposites Aluminium Ceramics
Bioplastics Thermoplastics Stainless Steel Titanium ResinsPhotopolymers
Application of Selective Laser Sintering
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Materials Applications
Metal alloys
Composites
Ceramics
Carbon fibers
Engineering plastics
Application of Selective Laser Melting (SLM)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 73
Materials Applications
Stainless steel and tool steel
Titanium
Aluminum
Other metal alloys
Application of Stereolithography (SLA)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 74
Materials Applications
Epoxy based photopolymers
Thermoplastics (ABS)
Application of Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 75
Materials Applications
Thermoplastics (ABS)
Polyphenylsulfone(PPSF)
Polycarbonate (PC)
Ceramics
Materials Advantages Limitations
Plastics • Design flexibility• Biodegradable in case of
bioplastics• Durable• Availability of colors
• Limited weathering resistance • Flammable with high smoke
generation • Possibility to warping
Metals • Strong• High weathering resistance• Corrosion resistance
• Low design flexibility• Costly
Ceramics • Strong but flexible• Availability of colors
• Low detail• Rigid compared to other
materials
Precious Metals • Strong but flexible• High detail• Can be plated
• Costly
Composites • High mechanical strength• Can be used for intricate design• Good surface finish
• Difficult to work with due to complicated interlocking assemblies and joints
Materials comparative analysis
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Material used for AM
Photopolymers56%
Thermoplastics40%
Thermoplastic powders
2%
Metal Powders1%
Others1%
Material used for additive manufacturing
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Additive manufacturing - materials
0 200 400 600
Inkjet materials
Metal powders
Thermoplastic powders
Solid thermoplastics
Photopolymers
Revenue in million US$
The material used market
20132025E
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 78
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530721/how-to-build-3-d-printing/
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP
4. 3D Printing for Glass
3. Laser market
Lasers used in Additive Manufacturing
•Stereolithography (SLA) – UV laser (wavelength: 100-400 nm)
•Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) – High powerlaser/IR laser (wavelength: 9-11 µm) e.g. CO2 laser
•Selective Laser Melting (SLM) – High powerlaser/IR laser (wavelength: 1030-1100 nm) e.g. Ytterbium fiber laser
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Improvements in Average Selling Price (ASP) and Power of Semiconductor Lasers
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10
100
1000
1
10
100
1000
10000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CW
po
we
r p
er
cm-b
ar (
W)
Ind
ust
ry A
SP (
$ p
er
CW
Wat
t)
Year
Source: Martinson R 2007. Industrial markets beckon for high-power diode lasers, Optics, October: 26-27.
9xx laser
Laser market
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 82http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-51/issue-01/features/laser-marketplace-2015-lasers-surround-us-in-the-
4.24 4.15 3.96 4.23 4.39
3.91 4.31 4.684.97
5.36
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In B
illio
n $
Laser revenues
Non-Diode
Diode
• Laser market is growing constantly with a yearly growth rate of around 4% -6%
• Due to the market growth, economy of scale is likely to happen, which will drive down the cost of each unit
Laser prospective developments and synergies
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• the power output increases• Beam spot size reduces• Accuracy of melting spot increases• Prices go down
Laser technology - steady improvements
Additive manufacturing market: Market is growing tremendously
Laser market: Revenue is increasing constantly and simultaneously, the market is growing
SYNERGY EFFECTS
• A growing market in Additive manufacturing promotes the laser market• Economies of scale lead to price reduction of the laser technology• Cheaper laser technology promotes the AM-market
that a recent changing momentum has happened with influence the market in sustainable way.
Conclusion
that the additive manufacturing is benefitting from the laser improvement rates and cost reduction.
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 84
The price for additive manufacturing has dropped, while quality of the technology remains the same
The price for additive manufacturing remains the same while the quality is improving.
The price for additive manufacturing is dropping, while the technology is improving DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
1
2
3
Extremely high growth rate of additive manufacturing
market imply
Due to Moore’s law, this makes additive manufacturing widely used.
Strategies
Additive manufacturing as disruptive innovation
• Even data for additive manufacturing is hardly available, additive manufacturing has a high likelihood to be disruptive.
• “It has a strong reputation for generating disruptive technology” http://www.motorship.com/news101/engines-and-propulsion/3d-printed-nozzle-ring
Indicators◦ Dropping price
◦ Increasing quality
◦ Rapidly growing market
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Has AM the potential displaces an existing technology, a product or a service partly or completely?
“An innovation transforms an existing market or sector by introducing simplicity, convenience, accessibility, and affordability where complication and high cost are the status quo” http://www.christenseninstitute.org/key-concepts/disruptive-innovation-2/
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP
4. 3D Printing for Glass
3. Laser market
•Introduced in August 2015 by MIT
•Technology is based on extrusion and
Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)
•Printed materials: Soda lime glass and Pyrex glass
•What made this possible?• Smart heating system
• Nozzle material
Additive Manufacturing of Transparent Glass = G3DP
B = The kiln cartridge
1 = The crucible
2 = Heating elements
3 = The nozzle
4 = The thermocouple
5 = Feed access lid
C = The crucible kiln
D = The nozzle kiln
Heating and nozzle system section
Current possible applications:
Design: Vases and Glasses
Visions from the G3DP Team:
Solar transmittance window: can control solar transmittance due to theproduction availabilty of a complex surface on the inside as well as theoutside
Architectural possibilities: • An all-glass building with internal channels and networks for airflow and
water circulation
• An all-in-one building skin made of glass
Possibilities and applications for the Industry
Contrains Leads Possible solutions
Extruded glass stuck covering the nozzle tip
Deviation from desired shapes and uneven glass distribution
• Creating new nozzle geometry• Material• Coating• Face cooling• Addition of sacrificial foil
Software environmentimprovements
• Full control of printing process• Direct control over the kiln’s temperature
•Merge of separate pieces of software
Frequently refilling of the crucible
Quality of the print
Active material feed system in form of a plunger or of compressed air
Small pressure drop generated by the gravity fed system
• Printing speed• Resolution• Preventing scaling down the nozzle diameter
Manual activation of start, stop and cut the glass filament
Quality Automating the compressed air and torching
Limitations/Contrains
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
4. CLIP
3. 3D Printing for Glass
3. Laser market
UV market
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 92http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2013/03/uv-led-market-43percent-cagr.htmlhttp://www.yole.fr/iso_upload/News/2013/PR_UV%20LED_YOLE%20DEVELOPPEMENT_March201
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mar
ket
size
in M
illio
n U
S$
87%
13%
UV lamp market
UV LED market
65%
35%
UV lamp market
UV LED market
• The total UV market is growing with a CAGR (2012-2017) of 34%. While the traditional UV lamp market is growing by a CAGR of 10%, the UV LED market is booming with a CAGR of 43%
• Especially, the market growth of UV LED is likely based on improvements in quality and/or decreasing costs
• This technology improvement or cost reduction will significantly impact Additive Manufacturing
Teflon AF 2400• Highly oxygen permeable• 990 barrers
• Great optical properties• Lowest index of refraction of any
polymer• UV transparent
• Chemical inertness and goodmechanical properties
• Very expensive• 100 $ / g
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Dynamics Behind the Speed: Oxygen PermeableMembrane
http://www.google.com/patents/US7914852
Application of thin films of less expensive materials like PET
O2
http://www.soarnol.com/eng/solution/solution040507.html
EVOH
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Dynamics Behind the Speed: UV-LED based DLP Projector
02468
1012141618
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Ave
rage
Pri
ce (
$)
Year
Average Price for LED Lightsource, Global, 2012-2019
AveragePrice ($)
Source: Frost & Sullivanhttp://www.radtech.org/uvledbook/RadTech_eBook1_UVLED.pdf
Jeff Funk: Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
TI’s DLP9000- > 4 M micromirrors- 2560x1600 pixelsHigh speed, power and resolution
http://eecatalog.com/sensors/2014/10/02/integrated-mems-is-powering-the-internet-of-moving-things/
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 95
DLP System For 3D-Printing
http://www.ti.com/lit/sg/dlpt019c/dlpt019c.pdf
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 96
Speed Enabling Point-of-Need Manufacturing
25 to 100 x Faster Than Traditional SLA Techniques
DentistryPersonalized Medicine
http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/07/carbon-3d-provides-more-information-on.html(Carbon 3D)
•Layerless process provides largepotential
•Feature sizes from 10 microns to 1000 microns with complexgeometries
•New sort of sensor technologies• Lab on a chip
• MEMS
•New drug delivery systems
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Reductions in Scale: Microfabrication
http://www.chromatographytechniques.com/articles/2011/12/microfluidics-evolution http://www.che.ncsu.edu/display/pages/desimone-clip.pdf
http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2008/January/16010801.asp