Adding value through market research Phoenix . Q1 2013 Your partner in commercial real estate Mark Detmer, SIOR, CCIM Managing Director +1 602 282 6289 Cell +1 602 448 0900 [email protected] m
Jan 19, 2016
Adding value through market research
Phoenix . Q1 2013Your partner in commercial real estate
Mark Detmer, SIOR, CCIMManaging Director+1 602 282 6289Cell +1 602 448 [email protected]
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '162,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000
3,000,000
3,250,000
3,500,000
3,750,000
4,000,000
4,250,000
4,500,000
4,750,000
5,000,000
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
Population Ind RBA
Phoenix Metropolitan AreaPopulation Growth vs. Industrial RBA 1999 – 2016 Forecast
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Moody’s Analytics, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Forecast
Population (in thousands)
Industrial RBA(in thousands)
5.4 millionsquare feet
100,000people
=+354,100 people
+19 million square feet
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '160
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Total Industrial All Other Forecast
+170,000 jobs
+76,600 industrialjobs
Phoenix Metropolitan AreaTotal Employment – Non-Farm Jobs Count from 1990 – 2016 Forecast
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
30%Industrial Employment
Jobs (in thousands)
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
15.2%16.3%
15.2%
11.6%
7.1%6.3%
7.2%
4.8%
7.2% 7.5% 7.6%8.6%
9.6%10.3%
9.0%
7.2% 7.1%
9.0%
13.7%
16.5%15.2%
12.7%11.5% 11.1%
2.2%
-0.3%1.1%
4.9%
6.6% 7.2% 7.3%
5.4% 5.4%4.6%
3.5%
1.2%0.0%
1.5%
3.9%
6.2%5.4%
1.7%
-2.5%
-7.9%
-1.9%
1.5%2.4%
1.7%
Completions Absorption Vacancy Job Growth
Phoenix Metropolitan AreaIndustrial Completions & Net Absorption vs. Market Vacancy & Job Growth
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Square Feet (in thousands)
Market vital statistics
Population Historic average yearly job growth
Historic average vacancy
Historic average yearly absorption
Historic average yearly development
4,339,600 2.5% 10.4% 4.4M 5.3M
Phoenix Metropolitan AreaIndustrial Developments
Construction in progress (100,000 s.f.+)
FAB 42 (Intel Corporation)
1,000,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q1 2013
Estrella Logistics Center
593,600 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2013
Living Spaces
435,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2014
Southwest Products
164,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q4 2013
TJX Distribution – ProLogis Park
1,200,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2013
Coldwater Depot Logistics Center
600,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2013
ProLogis Park Riverside
486,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2013
4550 Watkins Street
313,600 s.f. – est. delivery Q2 2013
Intel Chandler
285,000 s.f. – est. delivery Q3 2014
43rd Avenue Logistics Center
394,775 s.f. – est. delivery Q4 2013
Project Green Box
130,000 s.f. – Delivered Q1 2013
Elliot Business Park Building 5
158,000 s.f. – Delivered Q1 2013
Elliot Business Park – Building 6
158,000 s.f. – Delivered Q1 2013
Construction completed – First Quarter 2013
5.5 millionsquare feet under construction
Image Not Available
Phoenix Metropolitan AreaTenants in the Market
9 4 5 5 1 1
2Q | 2013 3Q | 2013 4Q | 2013 1Q | 2014 2Q | 2014 3Q | 2014 4Q | 2014 1Q | 2015
1,464,000 sf 1,325,000 sf 1,975,000 sf 2,140,000 sf
0 0
530,000 sf750,000 sf
16.4 millionCurrently tracking
square feet of requirements
Absorption Forecast
Preliminary Search
32%Actively Touring
32%Proposals Out
24%Lease Negotiations
12%
Requirement Status