Adaptive Systems & Interaction Jonathan Grudin, Microsoft Research CIITI 2007.

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction

Jonathan Grudin, Microsoft Research

CIITI 2007

Human Nature and TechnologyHuman Nature and Technology

Technology Is Changing Fast

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Reasoning About Nonlinear Growth

10 Years of Moore’s Law

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 210

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20 Years of Moore’s Law

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30 Years of Moore’s Law

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 210

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40 Years of Moore’s Law

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 210

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50 Years of Moore’s Law

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 210

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??

I WAS HERE

GUI

!!

Impact of Hardware ChangesImpact of Hardware Changes

HardwareR&D

SoftwareR&D

UserInterfaceR&D

ConsumerBehavior

Organizational& InstitutionalBehavior

1970s 1985 2000 2015?

New Generation of Technology UsersNew Generation of Technology UsersNew technologiesNew technologies IM, text messaging, IRCIM, text messaging, IRC Tagging, weblogs, wikisTagging, weblogs, wikis GPS, real-time visualization, GPS, real-time visualization,

map mash-upsmap mash-ups Digital photos, music, videoDigital photos, music, video Digital places and spacesDigital places and spaces

New behaviorsNew behaviors Multimedia authoringMultimedia authoring Multi-taskingMulti-tasking Emotion & engagementEmotion & engagement Search, browse, assess, synthesizeSearch, browse, assess, synthesize

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction

search

machine learning

surface computing Bayesian principles

sharing and privacy

tablet computing

interruption and recovery

forecasting availability

technology adoption

notification systems

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction

Tagging (Flickr for Photos)

Tagging (del.icio.us for URLs)

Categories of most weblogs todayCategories of most weblogs today– Public personal interactive diariesPublic personal interactive diaries– ‘‘A-list’ bloggers on politics, technology, events, cool A-list’ bloggers on politics, technology, events, cool

stuffstuff

Corporate use progressionCorporate use progression Incoming: event coverageIncoming: event coverage Incoming: monitor comments on your productsIncoming: monitor comments on your products Externally-facing: tremendous ability to put human face Externally-facing: tremendous ability to put human face

on your enterpriseon your enterprise Internally-facing: approach to project visibility and Internally-facing: approach to project visibility and

knowledge managementknowledge management

Weblogs in the Workplace

Managing Knowledge: Challenges & Managing Knowledge: Challenges & Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions

• Digital documents are difficult to find– Adding metadata is work– People disagree on labels

► Tagging – lightweight, visible, bottom-up (flickr, del.icio.us)– Is ontology overrated?

• Documents are difficult to assess– Context missing

► Project weblogs linked to document repository– Like a project “Read Me” file, or comments on code

• So people bypass system– Expertise locator software hasn’t succeeded

► Search technologies, browsing skills will contribute

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction

JamBayesJamBayes Streaming IntelligenceStreaming Intelligence

projectproject

Machine learning & Machine learning & reasoning for traffic reasoning for traffic

Hosted in Hosted in SmartphlowSmartphlow

Considers: Considers: Traffic flows and current Traffic flows and current incidentsincidents

WeatherWeather

EventsEvents

Prediction of time until jams will appear

Times until traffic jams will disappear

• Event store• Learning• Reasoning

Multiple views on trafficMultiple views on traffic

Operator ID: NickOperator ID: Nick

Heading: INCIDENTHeading: INCIDENT

Message: INCIDENT Message: INCIDENT INFORMATIONINFORMATION

Cleared 1637: I-405 Cleared 1637: I-405 SBSB

JS I-90 ACC BLK RL JS I-90 ACC BLK RL CCTVCCTV

1623 – WSP, FIR ON 1623 – WSP, FIR ON SCENESCENE

Incident reportsIncident reports

WeatherWeather

Major eventsMajor events

Machine Learning for Machine Learning for Traffic PredictionsTraffic Predictions

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• Data store• Inference• User logs

• System-wide status & dynamics• Incident reports• Sporting events• Weather• Time of day• Day of week• Season• Holiday status

Surprise!

• Predictive models

JamBayesJamBayes and and SmartPhlowSmartPhlow

Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction