Slide 1
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group
Experience
Kenneth Chomitz, Senior Advisor, IEG kchomitz at worldbank.org
ieg.worldbankgroup.org Istanbul, 6 November 2012
Using monitoring and evaluation to accelerate adaptation and
development
Outline
In a nutshell: monitoring and evaluation can be a mechanism for
accelerating adapation and making it more efficient.
Two kinds of climate risk Two kinds of (desirable) adaptation,
with inspirational
examples of monitoring and evaluation Early lessons from
national adaptation projects Recommendations for monitoring
national progress
towards resilience.
World Bank Group accomplishments against strategic framework
goals: highlights
Accomplished: Strong increase in attention to climate in CAS/CPS
Upsurge in projects dealing with climate change Significant
analytic work
Not accomplished: Initiating screening of projects for climate
risks Setting up results framework that is outcome-oriented
Overall: Significant innovation and investment, but: Lack of
strategic focus Lost opportunities to learn from projects
Three types of adaptation, with examples
Net benefits later Net costs later
Net benefits now (Adaptation to current climate variability)
Net costs now
Resilient adaption to climate variability: Capacity building
Hydromet services
Maladaptation: Unsustainable extraction of groundwater
Anticipatory adaptation: Climate-proofing
long-lived infrastructure
Coastal zone planning
No adaptive benefit: Unsustainable groundwater extraction for
uneconomic crops
Adapting to climate variability: examples of things we need to
know
Sustainable land management (SLM) Median reported ERRs of 20%
info on SLM impacts on water availability and sensitivity of
household income to droughts
Index insurance Apparent success in Mongolia, though
sustainability in question Generally low uptake in many pilots,
though replication
continues impacts of insurance on welfare; efficacy of selling
to
households vs to banks.
Disaster risk reduction Cost-effectiveness and sustainability of
soft vs. hard approaches.
Measuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring
expenditure on adaptation is fruitless
Nicaragua Atencion a Crisis Program provided small grants to
rural households for business investment
Rigorous randomized control trial evaluation Household income
increased 8% compared to controls
AND Recipients were completely insulated against drought
shocks while control groups suffered Take-aways:
This doesnt look like a stereotypical adaptation project but it
measurably boosted resilience
No meaningful way to allocate expenditure between poverty
reduction and adaptation
Real time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnataka watershed)
project
M&E costs integrated into project Real-time feedback led to
improvements in efficiency
and in targeting benefits to women and landless. Demonstration
of 25% income gains, plus environmental
gains, led to scale up and replication of project Bottom
line:
Costs are manageable (Bank spends $600m/year on knowledge!)
Techniques are known Benefits are large
Maladaptation: a cautionary tale
Trees in the drylands: sponges or vampires? Afforestation in the
Loess Plateau: exotic species reduced
sedimentation, increase carbon storage but depleted
groundwater.
Info needs: model and then monitor hydrological and social
impacts of land management and forestry interventions
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory
Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
The need for anticipatory adaptation
NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data
obtained from the University of Marylands Global Land Cover
Facility
TA project in Indian Sundarbans addresses long term spatial
development planning
Anticipatory climate adaptation and land use planning:
biodiversity
Example: Western Cape Province, South Africa There are few
examples of long-term success in shaping
land use patterns M&E needs: track the success of ongoing
efforts --such
as India Coastal Zone Mgt, Western Cape, and other projects in
influencing land use patterns.
Climate risk management in WBG projects
Currently, screening for climate risk is ad hoc World Bank
FY 11: 23 of 179 projects identify a climate risk; 1 a long-term
risk.
Some hydropower projects did climate sensitivity analyses
IFC:
has only looked at climate risks within the period of its
investment exposure
climate risks not identified in hydropower However, climate risk
analysis now enshrined in Performance
Standards; IFC has undertaken insightful analysis of how climate
risks affect
private sector
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory
Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
Climate models: limited applicability to project
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory
Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Divergence of precipitation forecasts for 2030s for 8380
basins
Num
ber o
f bas
ins
(max forecast min forecast)/current mean
Source: Data from Strzpek, McCluskey, Boehlert, Jacobsen and
Fant 2011
Recommendation: climate risk management
Develop reference guidelines for incorporating climate risk
management into project and program design, appraisal, and
implementation. Not meant to be rigidly prescriptive Guidance on
when to worry, what tools to use: The challenge is widely shared;
Bank Group could
convene scientists, industry experts to formulate approaches
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory
Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
National-level adaptation projects
Kiribati Colombia Caribbean
Lessons from national-level projects
A focus on current concerns has been more attractive than
anticipatory adaptation to long-term transformational threats.
Adaptation issues are deeply interlinked with development
issues.
Projects have tended to spread themselves across too many
locations and issues, straining limited capacity.
A strong theory of change is needed to guide actions. Planning
and execution need to be concurrent and
iterative. Coordination is best vested in a powerful central
agency.
Recommendations Track national progress towards resilience
Measures of institutional capacity Agricultural research and
extension service performance Hydromet system performance and
use
Direct measures of household resilience Sensitivity of household
consumption to weather shocks
Biophysical measures of resilience water consumption recurrent
flooding Population and infrastructure exposed to storm surges
and
floods
Recommendations: more attention to anticipatory adaptaiton
Promote attention to anticipatory adaptation to long-run climate
change. Especially for: Urban coastal areas Floodplains Estuaries
National biodiversity strategies
Please visit ieg.worldbankgroup.org to read the report. Contact:
kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!
Image creative commons license K Chomitz
Adapting to Climate Change:Assessing World Bank Group
ExperienceOutlineWorld Bank Group accomplishments against strategic
framework goals: highlightsThree types of adaptation, with
examplesAdapting to climate variability:examples of things we need
to knowMeasuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring
expenditure on adaptation is fruitlessReal time learning pays off:
the Sujala (Karnataka watershed) projectMaladaptation: a cautionary
taleThe need for anticipatory adaptationAnticipatory climate
adaptation and land use planning: biodiversityClimate risk
management in WBG projectsClimate models: limited applicability to
project Recommendation: climate risk managementNational-level
adaptation projectsLessons from national-level
projectsRecommendationsTrack national progress towards
resilienceRecommendations: more attention to anticipatory
adaptaitonPlease visit ieg.worldbankgroup.orgto read the report.
Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!