Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach* *Météo-France, CNRM ** « Observatoire National sur les.

Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence

Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence

Mean June-July-August temperatures in France (°C)

The last heat waves850Hpa June-July-August Anomalies

1983

1994 2003

1976

August 7 August 14

10o

15o

20o

25o

30o

35o

40o

9 days with

Tx>35C

Tn>20C

Obs.

2 day for.

5 day for.

ECMWF

Temperature in Chartres

June-July-August temperature in France (°C)

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 210016

18

20

22

24

26

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 21200

5

10

15

20

25

30

For the period running from June 1st to August 31st, the year 2003 is the warmest ever recorded in France. The warming is singular by its amplitude and its extension over Western Europe.

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

The hottest period appeared to be predictable a few days in advance.

Some regional climate change scénarios suggest that summers as warm or warmer than 2003 summer might occur every two years on average after 2050 in France (Déqué 2004) or in Switzerland (Schär et al, 2004).

Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence

Post-heat wave reports and actions

Reports:

29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.25 September 2003: INSERM.November 2003: Ville de Paris.3 February 2004: Sénat.3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.

August 2003 temperature and mortality Ile-de-France

(INSERM, 2004)

August 2003 temperature and mortality Rhône-Alpes

(INSERM, 2004)

Post-heat wave reports and actions

Reports:

29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.25 September 2003: INSERM.November 2003: Ville de Paris.3 February 2004: Sénat.3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.

Action plans: 5 May 2004: Heat wave plan for old people’s houses.6 May 2004: Heat wave plan for medical urgency services and hospitals of Paris and its surroundings.1 June-30 September 2004: French alert system for heat waves and health.2 June 2004: Heat wave plan for Paris.

As part of the National heat wave plan

The national heat wave plan

Level 1:

Seasonal survey from 1 June to 30 September to check up the different action plans and to inform the public for prevention.

Level 2:

To apply medical and social measures when an heatwave is occurring.

Level 3:

To mobilize public services from local to national scales when an overtaking of biometeorological thresholds is forecasted in the next 3 days.

Level 4:

To apply exceptional measures when an heatwave is extending and lasting .

The french alert system for heat waves and health

Method:

Definition of a biometeorological indicator: a combination of daily minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over 3 days.

Application:

Activation of Level 2 of the national heatwave plan when forecasted indicators (1, 2 or 3 days in advance) overtake the threshold values.

Established by the « Institut de Veille Sanitaire » and Météo-France to alert authorities with 3-day anticipation.

Construction of a map of threshold values of this indicator for a given overmortality percentage.

The vigilance map elaborated with 1-day temperature forecasts for public information.

A combination of decision levels from local to national with a national coordination.

First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence

A combination of anticipation levels

An adaptation to climate change as heat waves will become more frequent and as decision makers are generally aware of this.

Very short term: medical and social measures … Short term: 3-day anticipation of heat waves …Long term: prevention by public information …