Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: Review of Food Security- Water- Energy Nexus

Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture Review Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: Review of Food Security- Water- Energy Nexus

N K TyagiFormer Member Agricultural Scientists Recruitment BoardIndian Council of Agricultural ResearchNew Delhi

The Future We want

Global Vision: Universal food security+ Sustainable development -respect y p pfor Earth System’s planetary resource boundaries. This is “ The Future we want”- Healthy People Healthy Ecosystem(UN,2012) .

Paradigm Shift : Agriculture system to- Food system, &From -Food to Food+ Income + Livelihood

S h f P t ti Scheme of Presentation

Interconnected food ,water energy and climate system and safe operating spaceAd l h h h h lAdaptation to climate change through smart agro technologiesImpact assessment of GRTs and policies on climate change impacts

mitigation adaptation and sustainabilitymitigation ,adaptation and sustainabilityConcluding remarks

IIFood-water-energy nexus; and state

of operating spaceNexus term in the context of water ,food and energy; refers to

their inextricable linkages. Actions in one area impacts the others as well as the ecosystemas well as the ecosystem

Food-Water –Energy and Climate Nexus

ClimateWater impacts on

li t h

Food Impact on climate change

W t Energy

climate change

Climate change impacts on water

Climate change impacts on energyFood/fiber

impacts on climate changeWater Energy

Energy in water Water in

Energy

climate change

Food/Fiber in

Climate change impact on food/fiber

/water

Water in food/fiber

Food/fiber in energy

Food/Fiber

food/fiber Energy in Food/fiber

Safe operating space for interconnected food and climate systems(Beddington et al 2013)climate systems(Beddington et al,2013)

Earth’s planetary resource boundaries (Rockstorm l 2009) et al,2009)

Earth processes Control parameter Boundary Current status

Climate change Atm. CO2,ppmRadiatve forcing w/m2

3501 0

4001 5Radiatve forcing, w/m2 1.0 1.5

Nitrogen cycle N2 removed from Atm., Mt/yr 35.0 121

Phosphorus cycle P flowing into oceans,Mt/yr 11.0 8.5-9.5

Global FWU FWU consumption,km3/yr 40000 26000

Ocean acidification Aragonite saturation status in surface water

2.72Ωarag 2.90Ωarag

surface waterLand use change Land converted to cropland,% 15 11.7

Water stress across IndiaWater stress across India

River basin clusters according to water scarcity and food g ysurplus or deficit (IWMI,2010)

A t l t d f t f i i i ld f i t t Actual trend for rate of increase in yield of important crops

III III ADAPTATION TO CC THROUGH AGRO-TECHNOLOGIES

Adaptation refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential changes , or to benefit from opportunities

associated with climate change(UNFCC 2001)associated with climate change(UNFCC,2001)

Framework for adaptation planning and implementation

Climate Change

Exposure Sensitive Adaptive Capacity

Potential Impacts

Biophysical Adaptation ActionBiophysical Adaptation ActionS i i Ad i

actionsSocio-economic Adaption

actions

SoilSoilFarming System

InstitutionsWaterWater

Improved resilience, reduce impact

Broad Adaptation Options to Sustainability of Agricultural p p y gWater Use and Minimize Demand &Supply Gaps

Altering crop varieties /species to suit altered thermal regimes and resistance to other biotic and abiotic stresses

Altering irrigation and drainage practices and methods to respond to Altering irrigation and drainage practices and methods to respond to changed atmospheric and root zone environments.

Practicing conservation farming (tillage, residue management, land shaping) to harvest and conserve watershaping) to harvest and conserve water.

Diversification and reallocation of water and land resources Improvement in weather forecasting, enhanced use of weather advisories p g

and insurance of climate risks through risk transfer mechanism Transparent water markets Policies to incentivise optimal mix of options Policies to incentivise optimal mix of options

Average water and energy foot prints of crops in India

Crops Global average Average water foot Average energy

water foot prints,

(m3/t)@

print in India

(m3/t)@

foot print in India*

(MJ/t)

Paddy 1 673 2 070 6317

Wheat 1 827 2 100 5322

Maize 1 222 2 537 4847

Potatoes 287 291 1690

Sugarcane 3 048 6 026 888

Rapeseed 2 271 3 398 7574

Seed cotton 4 029 9 321 19785

Mekonnen&Hokestra @,2011; IASRI,2009*

Simulated yield , irrigation ,global warming potential and net benefits in resource-conserving technologies in Modipuram(Pathak et al,2011)

Treatment Rice+Wheat Rice+ Wheat Irrigation GWP NetTreatment Rice+WheatYield(t/ha)

Rice+ Wheatirrigation(cm)

IrrigationWP(kg/m3)

GWP(CO2 e.kg ha−1)

Netbenefit(USD/ha)

Rice(Puddling+TP) wheat (CT)

12.2 271.4 0.449 5853 563

R (DS ZT) 11 1 188 7 0 588 4408 651Rice(DS+ZT),wheat(DS+ ZT)

11.1 188.7 0.588 4408 651

Rice(TP+ZT) 11 6 229 9 0 505 4752 629Rice(TP+ZT)wheat(DS+ZT)

11.6 229.9 0.505 4752 629

CT-Conventional tillage DS-Drill seeded, TP-Transplanted, ZT-Zero till, WP-Waterproductivity, GWP-Global warming potential

Energy analysis in drip and conventional irrigation under banana crop production (Malunjkar et al,2015)Source Experimental

Field Farmer’s field

DI CI DI CIDI CI DI CI

Input energy (GJ·ha-1) 81.9 121.7 87.2 124.5

Output energy (GJ·ha-1) 1107 9 925 3 1045 9 916 8Output energy (GJ·ha-1) 1107.9 925.3 1045.9 916.8

Output/Input Energy ratio 13.5 7.6 12.0 7.4

Specific energy (MJ·kg-1) 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 4Specific energy (MJ kg-1) 1.1 2.1 1.3 2.4

Energy productivity (kg·MJ-1)

0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4

Relative cost (RCT) of generating additional water through some agricultural water demand management technologies some agricultural water demand management technologies

III I f GRT d lImpact assessment of GRTs and policies

I f d l l f Impact of development policies on expansion of irrigation (Mha) and increase in fertilizer use (kg/ha) in India

Land under irrigation, Mha1990: 602010: 852010: 85

Changes in Production and Productivity due to Policies and g yTechnologies (Tyagi et al,2014)

Food grain area, m ha Food grain production-40.4% g pincrease 1990: 151 mt 2010: 212 mt 2010: 212 mt

Productivity-46 % increase1990: 1.19 t/ha 2010 :1.74 t/ha

Population- 40 % increasePopulation- 40 % increase1990: 834 million2010: 1170 million

Deforestation avoided by year : 2000= 42 m ha ;2010=56 m ha

Emission from cropland with and without incremental technology adoption after 1990

(mtCO2e)

Food grain carbon foot prints,( ton

(mtCO2e) CO2e per ton FG)1990=1.196

430

2010=0.907The foot prints can

181 193

430

237 249be further lowered by 50 % h h

Em1990 Em2010(TP) Em2010(WTP) EmD2010 (TP) EMNFC 2010

through CSA

Implementation of technology policies(TP) reduced emission(Em) by 237 MtCO2 e (Tyagi et al,2014)

Intensity of greenhouse gas emission from Indian Intensity of greenhouse gas emission from Indian agriculture -GWP (Pathak et al. 2011,unpublished)

Impact of irrigation development policies on sustainability of water resources (2000-2050)

Item Level of development (BCM)

sustainability of water resources (2000 2050)

2000 2010 2050

Surface water 360 (690)* 404 647

Groundwater 210 (396)* 260 396

Degree of stress

DDS 0.522 (High) 0.586 (High) 0.938 (Extremely high)

GWAR 0.530 (Normal) 0.657 (High) >1.00 (Extremely high)

(Surface water degree of development)

(Extremely high)

*Values in parenthesis are the exploitable water potentials(Groundwater abstraction ratio)

Concluding RemarksLand and water systems are under stress ,and operating outside of safe space.

The situation will get further aggravated due to climate change(C C) CC i t f i i lt ill b t itt d l l th h t i CC impacts of in agriculture will be transmitted largely through water in

terms of floods, drought, sea water intrusion and increased irrigation demands.

Adaptation will be a major instrument for bringing resilience against climate shocks , but there are limits on their effectiveness as temperatures go up. Further there are barriers of space economic social culture Further, there are , barriers of space, economic, social culture .

Agro-technologies ,which minimize trade off between growth and GHG emissions, hold the key to food-water-energy security ;and will be the y gy yinstruments of adaptation.

Most mitigation and adaptation interventions require policy support and should be mainstreamed into development programmes of the governments for be mainstreamed into development programmes of the governments for large scale implementation.