Adaptation to Climate Change: How Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the UNFCCC Negotiation?

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEHow Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the

UNFCCC Negotiation?

Ahsan Uddin AhmedED, Centre for Global Change (CGC) and

Member, IPCC

Ahsan Uddin Ahmed <[email protected]>

Workshop on Climate Change Negotiations Jointly organized by MOERE, Sri Lanka and CANSA, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 23 May 2014

ADAPTATIONAny activity/approach that addresses one or more contexts of vulnerability•addressing poverty reduction•addressing livelihood enhancement/ strengthening•creating access to resources, power structure and/or infrastructure•enhancing access to food, health care, shelter … (prior to, during and after a hazard/disaster)•creating/strengthening access to knowledge (education/information, warning)•creation of options & alternatives



AdaptationThe process of adjustment in nature or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Not much can be done outside the countryIt is very location-specificInternationally what can we think of Adaptation?Technology transfer (south-south)Capacity buildingFinancingNationally?









Development & AdaptationDevelopment should ideally help humanity, irrespective of differences & diversity

If not designed well, development activities may not result in reducing human vulnerability

Development malpractices often aggravate prevailing contexts of vulnerability

Creation of winners and losers

Issues related to benefit distribution



Results of development might also be subjected to adverse effects of CC

Without taking into consideration implications of climate change, if development plans are devised and investments are made, the projected benefit streams might never be realized/achieved

Development & Adaptation



LIVELIHOOD SECURITY & ADAPTATION

Enhancing quantity & quality of livelihood assets

Creating access to livelihood resources/assets

• Advocacy

• Lobbying for pro-poor policy shift

Removing risks to livelihood failure

Reducing risks to livelihoods

Enhancing coverage and quality of LH services



DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & ADAPTATIONEliminate/reduce risks of occurrence of disasterChange the prevailing/projected geophysical context Playing with extent of a hazardous event• spray chemicals to force rainfall (!!?)

Change sensitivity to a hazard (of similar extent) • return period modulation (e.g., excavation of a rivulet)• increase crest height of a coastal embankment• change planting schedule so that the system becomes resilient• increase in plinth height of a railway track at risk of drowning



AdaptationThe process of adjustment in nature or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Not much can be done outside the countryIt is very location-specificInternationally what can we think of Adaptation?Technology transfer (south-south)Capacity buildingFinancingNationally?



Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape

1. Marrakech Accord (COP 7) Year 2001

Prepare and implement National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) for Least Developed Countries (LDC)

Establishment of Least Developed Country Fund (LDCF)

2. Bali Road Map (COP 13/CMP 3) - Year 2007

Adaptation as one of the building block of Bali Action Plan(BAP) - Mitigation, Adaptation, finance and technology transfer.

Prioritize the vulnerable developing countries as LDC, SIDs and Africa.

Creation of Adaptation Fund it’s Board, Trustee and Secretariat.



3. Copenhagen Accord (COP 15/ CMP 5) - Year 2009 Global Temperature should

be below 2oC and should consider the long tem goal in relation to temperature rise of 1.5oC.

Establishment of Green Climate Fund (GCF).

Short tem finance of 30 billion (2010- 2012)

Long term finance for 100 billion annually by 2020

4. Cancun Conference (COP 16/ CMP 6)- Year 2010 Adopted Cancun Adaptation

Framework (CAF)I. National Adaptation Plans

(NAPs)II. Establish Adaptation

Committee (AC)III. Work Program on Loss and

Damage

Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape (contd.)



5. Durban Platform (COP 17/ CMP 7)- Year 2011

Adopt a draft guidelines for the formulation of National Adaptation Plan (NAPs)

Decide Composition of and modalities and procedures for the Adaptation Committee under the authority of and accountable to the COP.

6. Warsaw Conference (COP 19/ CMP 9) – 2013

Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage.

Loss and Damage – A new reality, Third pillar of the negotiation.

Limits to adaptation.

Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape (contd.)



Adaptation Finance1. Raising Adaptation Finance under GCF

Part of 100 Billion $ annually starting 20202. Direct access and Grant basis (No Loan!) 3. No Co-financing4. New and additional to existing ODA Commitments5. Channel through UNFCCC Mechanism.

Future Adaptation Funding Needs

World Bank (2006)

Stern Review (2006)

Oxfam (2007) UNDP (2007)

UNFCCC (2007)

Project Catalyst

World Bank (2009)

9 – 41 Billions 4 – 37 Billions 50 Billions 47 – 109 Billions

28 – 67 Billions

67 -77 Billions

75 -100 Billions

Adaptation Funding

SCCF LDCF AF PPCR Total

Available Now 222 Millions 506 Millions 271 Millions 805 Millions 1.8 Billions



1. Adaptation as an Integral part of 2015 agreement

2. Adoption of Global goal on Adaptation 3. Means of Implementation – Adaptation

Finance, Technology Transfer and Capacity Building.

4. Loss and Damage – New Reality.

Adaptation into 2015 agreement


THANK YOU VERY MUCH

Adaptation to Climate Change: How Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the UNFCCC Negotiation?

Government & Nonprofit

exploits beneficial opportunities

expected climate stimuli

climate change

human systems

moderates harm

specific internationally

sri lanka

technology transfer