Adaptation Planning for the Coastal Sector - UNFCCC · Adaptation Planning for the Coastal Sector ... • Non-structural flood mitigating approach ... Pangasinan & Tarlac) Surigao

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Adaptation Planning for the Coastal Sector

Rosa T. Perez, Ph. D. / PhilippinesAsian Regional Workshop on Adaptation

Beijing, 11 – 14 April 2007

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Outline of Presentation• Introduction• Adaptation• Assessment tools for the Coastal

Sector• Adaptation- Philippine Case: Flood

Hazard Preparedness and Early Warning

• Conclusion

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Climate Influences Key Processes in Coastal Regions

• Sea level• Precipitation patterns and

associated effects on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow

• Ocean temperature• Circulation patterns• Frequency, track and intensity

of coastal storms• Levels of atmospheric CO2

and ocean acidification

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Climate Impacts Systems and Activitiesof Socio-economic Value in Coastal Regions

• Shorelines and developed areas

• Wetlands• Estuaries• Coral Reefs• Ocean Margins

and Fishery Resources

• Growth and development

• Natural hazard preparedness

• Conservation• Energy• Tourism• Public health

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Why Adapt ?

If we were to stabilize theconcentrations of all GHG and aerosols at present levels…..

The rise in global mean temperature following the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at present day level

Even if we would succeed in stabilizing GHG atmospheric concentration at present levels, adaptation is needed.

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Adaptation: What is that?

• Process to reduce adverse effects and to take advantage of the opportunities (Burton, 1992)

• Adjustments to enhance the viability of social and economic activities and to reduce vulnerability to CCVE (Smit, 1993)

• Any adjustment, whether passive, reactive or anticipatory proposed to ameliorate the anticipated adverse consequences associated with climate change (Stakhiv, 1993)

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Characterizing Adaptation (1)

Short term <====> Long termTactical <======> StrategicInstantaneous <=> CumulativeContingency < ==>Routine

Temporal Scope

Anticipatory <===> ResponsiveProactive <=====> ReactiveEx ante <======> Ex post

Timing

Autonomous <==> PlannedSpontaneous <==> PurposefulAutomatic <====> IntentionalNatural <======> PolicyPassive <=====> Active / Strategic

Purposefulness

Examples of Terms UsedGeneral Contributing Concepts or Attributes

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Characterizing Adaptation (2)

Local experiences Donor / Demand -driven options

Available experts Others

Level of Knowledge

Cost Effectiveness Efficiency Implementability Equity

Performance

Structural Legal Institutional Financial Technological

Forms

Retreat Accommodate ProtectPrevent Tolerate Spread

Change Restore

Functions/Effects

Localized <===> WidespreadSpatial Scope

Examples of Terms UsedGeneral Contributing Concepts or Attributes

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Assessment Tools in Coastal Sector

• IPCC Common Methodology• UNEP Handbook Methodology• Decision Support Models: COSMO (COastal

zone Simulation MOdel)• The South Pacific Island Methodology (SPIM)• RamCo and ISLAND MODEL• Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment

(DIVA)• Shoreline Management Planning (SMP)

Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (UNFCCC,2004)

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Adaptation in the coastal sector: Flood hazard preparedness

Philippine Case Study: Community-Based Flood Early Warning System

(CBFEWS)

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Exposure and SensitivityPast Flood Damage(1970- 2002)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

year

pers

on

s

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Mpe

sos

DEAD DEADAVERAGE

PROPERTIES(INFRASTRUCTURE,AGRICULTURE AND PRIVATE PROP)

PROPERTIES(INFRASTRUCTURE,AGRICULTURE AND PRIVATE PROP)AVERAGE

• Tropical cyclones

• ITCZ• Southwest

monsoon

• NE monsoon• Thunderstorms• Easterly waves

• Cold front

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Operational Hydrological Service(PAGASA Flood Forecasting Branch)

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Community-Based Flood Early Warning Systems (CBFEWS)

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CBFEWS

• A people-oriented non-structural flood mitigation measure/ flood disaster management program at the municipal –barangay (village) level

• Empower individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act in sufficient timeand in an appropriate manner so as to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property and environment, and loss of livelihood

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The CBFEWS…

• Non-structural flood mitigating approach• Localized early warning system• Can be quite simple and relatively cheap• Real-time basis monitoring, information exchange,

warning and disaster preparedness and response• Locally-based observers (volunteers / LGU personnel)• Enhances the social and moral responsibilities of the

locals• Expansion of operational hydrological service of

PAGASA

PRFFWC ®

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Pampanga river basin (Pampanga, Nueva Ecija and Bulacan)

Agno river basin (Beguet, Pangasinan & Tarlac)

Surigao del Sur

Zamboanga del Sibuguey

Phase 1 (UNDP)

Antique

Cagayan river basin(Cagayan, Isabela and Nueva Viscaya)

Surigao del NorteTelemetered

Phase 2 (UNDP)

Bicol river basin (Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte & small part of Albay)

Leyte Island (Leyte & So Leyte)

N & E Samar

Nueva Viscaya

Aurora

Bohol

Abra river basin (Abra & Ilocos Sur)

Areas of CBFEWS

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Challenges to CBFWS

• Deciding to do a CBFEWS

• Operation and maintenance of EWS

• Communication and dissemination

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CBFFWS: Activities1. Coordination with LGUs and concerned

agencies2. Conduct survey of sites (including

evacuation sites, storm surge shelter)3. Fabrication and installation of monitoring

facilities (rainfall and water level)4. Signing of MOA / training of observers

(LGUs, volunteers)5. Approval of a local ordinance for the

maintenance of CBFFWS 6. Implementation / testing / dry run / drill7. Information, education and communications8. Calibration / updating (after each event,

Cut out pattern made of cardboard Cut out pattern made of cardboard

resetting of threshold, if needed)

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Signing of MOA

Consultation with LGUs

OJT on Rainfall Observation

Installation of waterlevel gauge

Site surveyInstallation of rain gaugeTraining of observers

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Monitoring Rain and Water Level

Rain gauges

Staff gauges

Flood Marker

What time…? Start of floodingPeakSubsiding of flood

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•Flood hazard mapping

•Flood vulnerability mapping

Mapping

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Legislative Support (Dumangas, Iloilo)

Ordinance No. 2005-01 entitled: “AN ORDINANCE PROVIDING AN ANNUAL APPROPRIATION FOR THE MAINTENANCE AND OTHER OPERATIONAL EXPENSES OF THE COMMUNITY-BASED FLOOD AND DROUGHT FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM IN DUMANGAS”

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Communications

◄◄

PDCC RDCCFlood info

WarningPhase1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO

Wea

ther

Upd

ate

/ Inf

o

Dat

a / F

lood

A

dvis

ory

/W

arni

ng

Target Community

Disaster Operation Center

(DOC)Municipal Hall

Communication of Warning1 - MDCC2 – BDCC3 – Local

Volunteers

Weather Update / Info

BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level

Observers

PAGASA- Field Station

RR Observers

Flood Advisory

Data/Rainfall

ObservationWeatherUpdate/Info

Weather

Update/Info

BandilloMegaphone w/sirenChurch Bells

River Observation1 – Color2 – Speed of Flow3- Sound4 – Presence of

Debris

Data/Rainfall

Observation

Legend: ◄ Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).

Information starts here in case of local/ small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm and ITCZ).

◄◄

◄◄◄

Evacuation Center

◄◄

PDCC RDCCFlood info

WarningPhase1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO

Wea

ther

Upd

ate

/ Inf

o

Dat

a / F

lood

A

dvis

ory

/W

arni

ng

Target Community

Disaster Operation Center

(DOC)Municipal Hall

Communication of Warning1 - MDCC2 – BDCC3 – Local

Volunteers

Weather Update / Info

BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level

Observers

PAGASA- Field Station

RR Observers

Flood Advisory

Data/Rainfall

ObservationWeatherUpdate/Info

Weather

Update/Info

BandilloMegaphone w/sirenChurch Bells

River Observation1 – Color2 – Speed of Flow3- Sound4 – Presence of

Debris

Data/Rainfall

Observation

Legend: ◄ Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).

Information starts here in case of local/ small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm and ITCZ).

◄◄

Legend: ◄ Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).

Information starts here in case of local/ small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm and ITCZ).

◄◄

◄◄◄

Evacuation Center

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Simplified Warning

The message suggests response that flooding is expected to occur / or will persist within the next 12 hours.

GOThe river at a particular reference point is 100% full.

Level

The message suggests preparedness andthat flooding is threatening within the next 12 hours.

GET SETThe river at a particular reference point is about 60% full.

Level 2

The message suggests awareness that flooding is possible within the next 24 hours.

READYThe river at a particular reference point is about 40% full.

Level 1

MeaningFlood Advisory /Warning

River heightAssessment Level

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Conclusions: Some lessons learned in CBFEWS

• Genuine grass roots demand • Technical knowledge merge with

indigenous knowledge in a socio-culturally appropriate manner

• Sustained investment (both time and financial) of all stakeholders at multiple levels before, during and upon completion of the project cycle

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What do we still need? Examples for flood preparedness and early warning

•Science side

•Technology side

•Policy side

•Collaboration

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What do we need? Science side

• Reduce uncertainty in climate modeling• Develop a dynamic approach using coupled

atmospheric and hydrologic models to improve understanding of processes (Kingston 2006)

• Develop new methods to evaluate social and economic impacts

• Quantify potential damages as a result of changing climate regimes and sea level using spatially-explicit GIS-based models

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Implications of climate change for the hydrological cycle Adapted from Handley 2004

Reservoirs Surface

Inter-basin transfer

Through flowInfiltration

EvapotranspirationPrecipitation

Surface ru

noffSurface runoff

BMPsHomes & factories

Sewage works Ground

Waste water treatment Leakage

Abstraction Percolation

Groundwater flow

River outfallsMarine outfalls

Est

uarie

s

Oce

ans

Soils Rivers

Spring Increase Spring DecreaseSummer Increase Summer Decrease

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What do we need? Technology side

• Living with floods (floating homes)• Others

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What do we need? Policy side

• Implement proactive flood management strategies as oppose to flood control

• Introduce a river basin approach (up <==>down)

• Integrate flood management into land use planning

• Make space for water

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What do we need? Collaboration

• Better communication between scientific community and various stakeholders

• Regional collaboration – using a common flood management protoco

• Flood adaptation technologies• Implement an action plan

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Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Rosa T. PerezPAGASA/DOST

[email protected]@pagasa.dost.gov.ph