Adaptation of Water to Climate Change in Cyprus Dr. Kyriaki Ioannou Water Development Department Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment 6-7 April, 2017 Bilthoven, The Netherlands Pan-European Symposium on Water and Sanitation Safety Planning and Extreme Weather Events
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Adaptation of Water to Climate Change in Cyprus of Water to Climate Change in Cyprus Dr. Kyriaki Ioannou ... • Control groundwater overexploitation • Use of water supply meters
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Adaptation of Water to Climate Change in Cyprus
Dr. Kyriaki Ioannou
Water Development Department Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment
6-7 April, 2017Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Pan-European Symposium on Water and Sanitation Safety Planning and Extreme Weather Events
The Climate is changing…
Due to:** natural causes:
Variations of solar radiationVolcanic eruptions Reflection of solar heat from earth
And** anthropogenic:
increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that bind heat
CausingVarious and significant impact in key economic sectors and vulnerable social groups
The increase of temperature on the planet by 2100 in comparison with the temperatures of 1990, according to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change of the United Nations (IPCC) will be approximately between +1.4°C and +5.8°C
The 25 hotspots. The hotspot expanses comprise 30-3% of the red areas Source: Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities (Myers et al., 2000)
Climate Change in Cyprus
The change is already evident mainly by the
….mean annual temperature increase
The average annual temperature in the period 1991-2007 Is 0.5οC higher than that of the 1961-1990 period .
The average annual rainfall in the period 1991-2008is 9% lower than that of the 1961-1990 period
….mean annual rainfall decrease
Source : CYPADAPT 2012
• The average annual rainfall will decrease by 10-15%
• The average annual temperature will increase by 1.0 - 1.5οC
• Extreme weather events (droughts, heatwaves, dust episodes, floods, windstorms etc.) will be more frequent, more intense and widespread
Climate Change in Cyprus
According to the above rates it is expected that by 2050….
……in comparison with the corresponding values for the period 1961-1990
Changes in (a) average annual maximum temperature (TX) and (b) average annual minimum
temperature (TN), between the reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050)
The range from 1.0°C to 2.0°C with spatial variations CYPADAPT 2013
The projected changes in temperature are remarkable
Changes in TX and TN range from 1.3 - 1.9oC and 1.0 - 2.0 oC with spatial variations respectively
Changes in annual total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and control period (1961-1990)
CYPADAPT 2013
The projected precipitation will be decreased with seasonal and regional variations
The average annual total precipitation will be slightly decreased (10-20 mm/year) with seasonal and regional variations in the near future period, but will be significantly reduced (90-130 mm/year) and more spatially variable between 2071-2100.
(with high uncertainty due to the large temporal variability of rainfall and the large variations of future projected changes among models)
* The maximum length of dry spells (precipitation<0.5mm) is expected to increase by 10 to 12 days on average *The number of heat waves and very hot days (temperature > 35°C), will be increased averagely by 10 to 30 days on annual basis, depending on the region.*The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature > 20°C) is also expected to increase by 30-60 nights on annual basis, depending on the region.*Droughts and dry periods are projected to increase in length and frequency (> 25 of dry days by 2080)*The annual maximum total rainfall over 1 day is slightly increased of about 1-4 mm .The
intensity and frequency of rainfall extremes, is projected to modifications also.
•Sea surface temperature is expected to increase farther Warming Levantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year
•Sea level rise in Eastern Mediterranean is expected to be about 0.5m to 1.0 m, by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Relative humidity shows negative though small changes, (about 0.5% decrease by 2100)
•The number of windy days (with average wind speed of 5m/s) will decreases in distant future
Other climatic factors that need further investigation are the increase in carbon dioxide CO2 and ozon O3
Ways to address climate change
• Mitigation measures
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
• Adaptation measures
To tackle the unavoidable impacts on current and future climate change
• Managing the ipmacts/risks of climate change
With the combination of both mitigation and adaptation actions
The basic framework for the effective and timely treatment of adverse effects of climate change is the adaptation strategy
The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change
the LIFE+ project: CYPADAPT
www.moa.gov.cy/environment
Start date: September 1st, 2011 - End date: March 31st, 2014
Duration: 31 months
Project budget: 1.358.847 € (50% EC funding)
Project partners:
Department of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment of Cyprus
The aim of the Adaptation Strategy is to strengthen and/or improve the adaptability of Cyprus to early and effectively address the negative effects of climate change with the simultaneous exploitation of challenges and opportunities
This has been achieved through specific objectives:
•Identification of current climate change and its impacts
•Prediction of future climate changes and assessment of their potential impacts
•Evaluation of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of the various systems, sectors or
social groups to climate change
•Estimation of limits, barriers and opportunities associated with climate change
•Selection of appropriate adaptation actions and measures through multi-criteria analysis and consultation with stakeholders
Increased temperature- Increased water temperatures - Increase in evaporation
Increased evapotranspiration- Water availability reduction - Lower replenishments rates (lower groundwater levels) - Salinisation of water resources
Decreased precipitation, including increased droughts
- Decrease in runoff - More widespread water stress - Increased water pollution and deterioration of water quality due to lower dissolution of sediments, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens, pesticides and salt - Decreased rates of groundwater recharge - Salinisation of coastal aquifers due to overpumping motivated by insufficient water supply
Increase in interannual precipitation variability
- Increase in the difficulty of flood control and reservoir utilization during the flooding season
Increase in heavy precipitation events
- Flooding - Adverse effects in quality of surface water and groundwater - Contamination of water supply - Lower replenishment rates in the aquifers of the mountain areas due to steep slopes
Increase in surface water temperature
- Increased algae growth and reduced dissolved oxygen levels in water bodies which may lead to eutrophication and loss of fish
- Prolonged lake stratification with decreases in surface layer nutrient concentration and prolonged depletion of oxygen in deeper layers
- Changes in mixing patterns and self purification capacity - Salinisation of water resources
Sea level rise - Salinisation of coastal aquifers (minor effect)
Relationship between climate changes and impacts on the water sector
Future Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of Cyprus
Source: CYPADAPT 2013
Vulnerabilityvariable
Selected Indicators
Water availability
Sensitivity
• Sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall • Dam inflow variability • Number of groundwater bodies overexploited • Number of groundwater bodies in bad quantitative
status • Freshwater availability per capita • Water Exploitation Index • Water availability index • Number of years water demand exceeded amount of
available freshwater resources
Exposure • Number of dams presenting decreasing trend • Number of groundwater bodies in bad quantitative
status
Vulnerabilityvariable
Selected Indicators
Water availability
Adaptive capacity
• Increase water storage capacity • Inter-basin water transfer • Artificial aquifer recharge • Water import • Use of desalinated water • Use of treated water • Stormwater use • Replacement of networks • Improving water use efficiency in irrigation • Water allocation• Control groundwater overexploitation • Use of water supply meters • Redistribution of irrigated land • Water pricing • Subsidies for drinking water savings • Awareness campaigns • Improving monitoring and forecast
Vulnerabilityvariable
Selected Indicators
Water quality
Sensitivity
• Effect of climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, on the quality of water resources
•Reduction of the rate of aquifer replenishment •Overexploitation of aquifers due to water scarcity
Exposure
• Changes in air temperature • Changes in annual precipitation • Changes in the length of drought periods • Changes in heavy precipitation events • Changes in sea level • Percent of river water bodies in bad ecological and chemical status • Percent of lake water bodies in bad ecological and chemical status • Percent of coastal water bodies in bad ecological and chemical status •Number of surface water areas identified as sensitive according to the
Directive 91/271/EEC • Surface Water Vulnerability (SWV) Index •Number of groundwater bodies with excess pollutant concentrations •Number of groundwater bodies declared as Vulnerable Nitrate Zones
(VNZ), according to the Directive 91/676/EEC •Number of groundwater bodies salinized •Number of groundwater bodies in bad qualitative status
Adaptive capacity
•Designation of protected areas • Protection from point source discharges likely to cause pollution •Action Programme to prevent or reduce water pollution from nitrates • Protection of groundwater bodies from salinization
Vulnerabilityvariable
Selected Indicators
Floods
Sensitivity • Percent of very high& high hazard flooding events taking
place in Cyprus
Exposure • Changes in heavy precipitation events •Areas with potential significant flood risk in Cyprus
Adaptive capacity
•Development of a separate drainage system for collecting stormwater
• Implementation of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems • Identification of flood risk areas • Preparation of Flood Risk Management Plans
Droughts
Sensitivity
• Sensitivity to Desertification Index • Percent of areas characterized as semi arid with an
increased sensitivity • Percent of areas immediately threatened
Exposure
•Number of consecutive years of drought •Amount of deficit during drought periods • Frequency of drought periods • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Adaptive capacity
• Elaboration and implementation of a Drought Management Plan
Water resources: Baseline situation
Total Demand for 2011 was 252 Mm3Source WDD 2012
Water demand and freshwater resources in Cyprus for the period 2000 – 2010
29
2
46
8
53
7
72
2
52
9
67
7
49
8
50
0
59
3
55
1
66
7
53
5
64
9
54
3
41
1
37
3
47
2
59
0
69
7
57
2
54
6
62
7
54
9
46
0
73
2
50
6
43
4
64
8
73
9
65
1
28
4
34
1
40
1
68
7
53
0
56
6 57
5
64
3
55
1
37
0
59
7
63
9
51
4
61
7
53
1
52
9
56
1
53
0
56
0
40
0
61
7
66
4
54
3
54
5
54
7
41
5
50
6
39
9
40
6
46
9
65
6
63
6
30
9
53
2
51
9
69
4
49
9
80
0
39
8
49
8
40
8
21
3
38
9
61
9
56
3
47
1
54
9
43
9
58
2
57
4
42
5 43
7 44
8
49
8
43
8
52
0
62
5
48
1
36
3
28
2
63
7
50
9
41
7
49
3
38
3 39
9
38
8
47
3
36
3
46
8
60
2
56
15
44
41
2
36
0
47
9
27
2
52
7 54
6
46
4
65
4
54
4
31
5
56
1
30
9
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
19
01/0
2
19
11/1
2
19
21/2
2
19
31/3
2
19
41/4
2
19
51/5
2
19
61/6
2
19
71/7
2
19
81/8
2
19
91/9
2
20
01/0
2
20
11/1
2
Rain
fall
in
mm
Hydrological Year 1901/02-2015/16
Mean annual precipitation in Cyprus (area under Government control)Source: WDD 2017
Governmental Water Works – Sources of Irrigation (1991 - 2015)Source: WDD 2017
Φράγματα Γεωτρήσεις Ανακυκλωμένο Νερό
[29,0]
[40,7]
[53,0] [53,0]
[60,9]
[52,2]
[28,0][26,0]
[28,5]
[41,5]
[53,8]
[60,8]
[68,6]
[62,8]
[37,0]
[48,7]
[35,6]
[20,8]
[30,4]
[48,4] [47,6]
[53,8]
[64,8]
[53,0][55,91]
Dams Boreholes Reused Water
Freshwater availability per capita
Source: DG Environment-EU, 2007
Water sources used for the satisfaction of water demand in Cyprus (average for the
period 2000-2010)
Inter-basin connection and water transfer
Water Stress and Water Exploitation Index
among European countries. Cyprus ranks first
Water exploitation index (WEI) (1990-2007)WEI=total annual abstraction/long term renewable resourcesSource: EEA , 2010c
Water stress index (WSI)
WSI=the ratio of water withdrawal to supply
Source: Wintgens and Hochstrat, 2006
Vulnerability of Water Availability
Total water use efficiency in Mediterranean countries (1995, 2005-2010)
Water use efficiency in drinking water and irrigation sectors in 2010
Source: Plan blue, 2011
154
129
35
12
143
127
53
103
3225 26
63
34
61
168
136
151
50
24
39
19
97
140
63
191,8
93,9
12,3
116,4
17,9
0
50
100
150
200
250
198
7-8
8
198
8-8
9
198
9-9
0
199
0-9
1
199
1-9
2
199
2-9
3
199
3-9
4
199
4-9
5
199
5-9
6
199
6-9
7
199
7-9
8
199
8-9
9
199
9-0
0
200
0-0
1
200
1-0
2
200
2-0
3
200
3-0
4
200
4-0
5
200
5-0
6
200
6-0
7
200
7-0
8
200
8-0
9
200
9-1
0
201
0-1
1
201
1-1
2
201
2-1
3
201
3-1
4
201
4-1
5
201
5-1
6
Millio
n C
ub
ic M
ete
rs (
Mm
3)
Hydrological Year ( 1st October – 30th Semptember)
Dam Inflow 1987/88 - 2015/16
Average 80 Mm3
Change in inflow to the main dams of Cyprus for the
period 1970-2050 Source: WDD 20011 aSource: WDD 2017
Surface water resources consists of water inbounded in dams/ reservoirs and seasonal rivers with low flow in
winter and no flow in summer
Over-pumping in the groundwater bodies of Cyprus Source: WDD, 2008
The decreasing trend in ground water levels and recharge rates are expected to continue in future, (WDD, 2008, WDD 2011a)
Groundwater resources rely also on the amount and duration of effective rainfall and the increase in evaporative demand.The intense agricultural development and urbanization in recent past resulted in the overexploitation of Cyprus’ aquifers
Decrease in water availability in future will reinforce the competition between different water usages mainly drinking water and irrigation supply.
Vulnerability of Water Quality
The projected climate changes in the future (2021-2050) that are anticipated to intensify many forms of water quality deterioration are
the higher water temperature and increased evapotranspiration rates,
the reduced precipitation and high intensity precipitation or flooding events and,
the longer periods of droughts or dry spells.
The main driver of water quality deterioration in surface and ground resource is the water volume, in terms of the pollutants’ dilution, which is highly sensitive to climate change *Surface Water bodies (dams and seasonal rivers with low flow): lower levels of dissolved oxygen and less dilution of pollutants, enhanced eutrophication rates and algae blooms,*Groundwater bodies (many of them are in a moderate to bad due chemical status): are more sensitive to climate changes, pollutants’ concentration, salinization increases
Salinization in the groundwater bodies of Cyprus Source: WDD, 2008
Map of surface water vulnerability to pollution Source: PigWasteMan, 2007
Vulnerability of Water Quality
Vulnerability of Water Resources to Floods
Areas with potential significant flood risk in CyprusNumber of flooding events per year in Cyprus (1971-2010)
The observed increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the period 1971 – 2007 in contrast with the respective for the period 1930 – 1970 despite the decrease in the mean precipitation . These extreme rainfall events may potentially cause localized flooding phenomena with devastating impacts
Cyprus in spite of the fact expiriencing long and frequent dry periods, also suffers from flash and urban floods triggered by local intenceinte intense precipitation events
Vulnerability of Water Resources to Droughts
Drought impact per year and Member State (1976 – 2006)Source: EC, 2007
Environmentally Sensitive Areas to DesertificationSource: I.A.C.O. Ltd 2007
The exposure and sensitivity of Cyprus to
droughts is expected to be very high
Standard Precipitation Index between 1901/02-2010/11
Number of dry days (RR<0.5mm) per year between the reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2071-2100). An increase of about 8-10 days is expected reaching 110 days
The number of years with SPI for the 12 month time scale ,varying between (<-2 to -1) is estimated to increase in future period (2021-2050)
Overall Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources in Cyprus to Climate Changes
Overall Vulnerability Assessment of Infrastructure to Climate Changes(Water Supply )
Impact Sensitivity ExposureAdaptiveCapacity
Vulnerability
Damage from urban floods
Moderate to High (4) High (5) Moderate (3)Limited to Moderate
The proposed measures and their prioritization is the result of a) continuous and
effective consultation with all stakeholders, and b) multi-criteria analysis. A valuable tool facilitating the evaluation of all climate change factors (variations, impacts , measures) taking account of the interrelated influences and assessing the associated risks or potential opportunities.
Adaptation of water sector to climatic impacts
The challenge of developing and implementing infrastructural adjustments and societal changes, to balance water supply and demand is not easy, because of the uncertainties surrounding climate change issues, and the need to educate people to deal with unexpected future changes.
WATER - Adaptation Measures Suggested ( CYPADAPT 2014)
Measures to increase water availability
Increase storage capacity
Legislative Control of groundwater exploitation
Improve key irrigation infrastructure to minimize key system losses
Maintenance of the water distribution systems and infrastructure
Increase capacity of desalination plants
Installation of water saving equipment (mandatory in new buildings)
Intensify monitoring of water quality for irrigation and recharge
Replenishment of coastal aquifers
Measures for the diversification of water resources utilisation
Increase capacity of desalination plants
Incentives for reuse of municipal wastewater
Stormwater use collected in separate drainage system
Mandatory greywater recycling for new houses/ buildings
Measures to decrease water demand
Water allocation mechanisms and cuts for municipal water supplies
Redistribution of irrigated land
Efficient water pricing
Provision of subsidies for drinking water savings
Awareness campaigns
Adoption of efficient water consumption standards
Measure to protect water quality
Designation of protected areas
Actively enforce and monitor law with strict penalties
Strictly control overdrilling
Provide subsidies to farmers for applying smart techniques
Proper waste management to avoid surface and ground water pollution
Measures for the protection from floods
Separate collection of stormwater
Establishment of riverbed protection zones
Maintain & restore wetlands /riverbeds (natural defense against floods)
Preparation of flood hazard maps
Preparation of flood risk management plans
Measure for the protection from droughts
Drought policies and plans
Periodic reviews of the achievements and priorities
Periodic readjustment of goals, means and resources
Strengthening institutional for drought mitigation
Establishment and strengthening of early warning systems
Drought risk map and emergency programme
WATER - Adaptation Measures Suggested cont…
Ευπ
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Μέτρα προσαρμογής για τους Υδάτινους Πόρους
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5,00 Συντήρηση και επιδιόρθωση των συστημάτων μεταφοράς νερού και της σχετικής υποδομής 87,5 Χ Χ
5,00Έλεγχος ° και αποφυγή υδροβόρων απαιτήσεων σε ° όλες τις περιοχές με ανεπαρκείς υδάτινους πόρους
5,00 Μηχανισμοί κατανομής νερού ° για την εξασφάλιση οικιακών και δημοτικών αποθεμάτων νερού * 59,5 Χ
5,00 Μελέτες σκοπιμότητας για τη μεταφορά νερού σε περιοχές που απειλούνται με απερήμωση * 59,3 Χ
5,00 Αύξηση χωρητικότητας φραγμάτων * 55,3 Χ
5,00 Ανακατανομή αρδευόμενης γης * 52,8 Χ
Water Resources
Maintenance and repair of potable and irrigation water supply systems and related infrastructure
Control and avoidance high water consuming systems in regions with insufficient water resources
Implementation and regularly revisions of the Drought Management Plan
Soils
Development and implementation of the Desertification Plan in Cyprus
Effectively address of the soil erosion by improving the soil moisture, structure and fertility.
Coastal Areas
Investigation to identify the vulnerable to climate change coastal areas
Development and implementation of the Strategic Framework for the Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Infrastructure
Development of flood protection works in cities and implementation of the flood risk management plans
Enhancing the adaptive capacity and the protection of buildings and transport infrastructure from the impacts of climate change (design, construction materials, etc.)
Agriculture / Livestock
Incentives to farmers to use recycled water for the irrigation of selected crops
Identification and promotion of native, locally and over time adapted to climate change genetic material (plant and animal)
Water Sector: Proposed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change
• To monitor and evaluate the implementation adaptation plans and specifically for the evaluation of progress of the priority objectives of each sector, efficiency and effectiveness of individual measures and actions, are used -where possible-general and specific indicators for existing climatic and non climatic factors that are likely to enhance or hinder the process of adaptation
• Specific indicators of climate change
• Other indicators of non-climatic stresses or parameters (which may affect the vulnerability of the economic sector or the vulnerable social group)
Evaluation of the implementation of the Adaptation Plan
* Sensitivity * Exposure * Adaptability
Progress indicatorsby means of the CYPADAPT Adaptation Platform
Changes of the Mean Annual Temperature (oC) in Cyprus
during recent decades
Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment
The adaptive capacity of a system depicts the ability or potential of a system to adjust trough changes in itscharacteristics or behaviour to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences of climate change.
The sensitivity of a system describes the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially,by climate-related stimuli.
The exposure of a system is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climaticvariations
Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli or their impacts, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
The vulnerability represents the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes; the vulnerability is afunction of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed,its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001).
IPCC
Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment
List of measures to adapt Cyprus' water management to climate change impacts