Adaptation lessons from the Pacific Region

Image:NASA

ProfBrendanMackey,DirectorGriffithClimateChangeResponseProgram

(email)[email protected]

AdaptationlessonsfromthePacificRegion

KeyLesson1

Adaptationdemandsanintegration&synthesisofmulti-disciplinaryapproaches

Coastaldynamics

Social&PolicyAnalysis

RiskAssessment

Micro-economics

Climatechange&Ecosystems

Multidisciplinaryresearchneeddisciplinaryexperts

A“table”wherewecan

meet

…andresidentintegratorswhostay

“atthetable”

KeyLesson2

Adaptationmustbeundertakeninthecontextofsustainabledevelopment

PacificRegionhas23SIDS

Area - 12, 189 km2Population - ~276,000

GDP 773.5 millionUSD(2016)RankedbyWorldBankas183poorestinlistof195countries

Theeconomy basedprimarilyon:• Subsistenceorsmall-scaleagriculture,• Fishing,offshorefinancialservices,and

tourism• Mineraldepositsarenegligible• Noknownpetroleumdeposits

(Source:VanuatuGovernment)

Sustainablelivelihoods&subsistenceeconomyarecentraltocommunityresilience&well-being

KeyLesson3

Direct,indirect&compoundclimate-relatedhazardsmustbemodelled

dynamicallyandatmultiplescales,despitethelackofdata

Imagessources:IPCC;NYT;Wikipedia;ABC;NOAA;Bom

Alteredoceancurrents

Multi-scaled,interactingprocessesIncreasedwaveheights

Assuminglinear

responsesonly

Risingsealevels

Coastalinundation&

erosion

Increasingfrequencyand/orintensityofextremeweatherevents

Watershedlandcover

Impacts&exposureareafunctionoftime&place

SeaLevelRiseSpatialTrend:SatelliteAltimetryData

Source:Meyssignac andCazenave,2012,

Current&futuretemperature

Regionalmodel (1Feb to 14Mar2015)predicts 16mwaves offTanna

HYCOMwaterspeed(m

/s)

14-Mar-2015(CyclonePam)

SurfaceVelocity(top2m)

(m/s)

Cyclonicimpactsoncoastalwavesamajorhazard

PortResolution

But,needtocapturelocalfeatures&dynamics

Tidalgaugeshows~2mstormsurge

Windrepresentedwitharrows&waveheightwithcolors

Log10(Hs)

Featurestobemodelled:1-Tides,2-WaterSpeed,3-Salinity,4-Temperature,5-Waterdensity,6-Waves,7-Sedimentdynamics,8-TransportTimescalesofwaterproperties.

Significantwaveheight

UsingFVCOMandSLIM

PortResolutionBaySimulationModel,TannaIsland

KeyLesson4

Cost-BenefitAnalysisofofadaptationoptionsmustincludevaluationof

ecosystemservicebenefits&recognizeKastom values(“somethingsarenotfor

sale”)

Coastal ecosystemrisk analysis showingfour risk indicatorsmapped in fourcategorie

EstimateofannualmonetaryvalueofecosystemserviceflowsperecosystemtypeforTanna

Coastalcoral

Coastalseagrass

Coastalmangrove

Freshwaterwetlands

Freshwaterwetlands

Tropicalforest Grassland Total

Total(2015US$) 202,254,921 0 0 0 975,737 44,889,140 2,353,854 250.5 million

VanuatuGDP773.5 million

Kastom valuenotmoniterizable

KeyLesson5

Keyconcepts&approachesforoperationalizingIPCCRiskAssessmentFrameworkincludeSocio-ecologicalsystems&BayesianNetworkModels

Vulnerability*Sensitivity*AdaptiveCapacity

Hazards*Climatic&Non-

climatic

Risk

Exposure*Space/Time

Adaptationinterventionsaimtomanagerisksbyreducingthevulnerability and/orexposureofcommunities,builtassets,andsocio-ecologicalsystemstothe

impactsofclimatic-relatedhazards

RiskAssessmentFrameworkforAdaptationInterventions

Tanna’s Socio-EcologicalSystems

KeyLesson6

Adaptationinterventionscanbeathreateningprocess

Coastalzoneisthefocusofcapitalintensivebuiltinfrastructureesp.fortourism

Protectingnaturalecosystems

• Conservation• Sustainableuse…

• Mangroves• Coralreefs• Estuaries

Adaptationthrough:

AspectrumofadaptationinterventionsavailableGradientindegreeofhumanintervention

Workingwithnaturalprocesses

• Sandaccretion&erosion

• Beachreplenishment• Artificialreefs…

Adaptationthrough:

Constructingcapitalworks

• Verticalconcreteseawalls

• Rockwalls…

• Interruptnaturalprocesses

Adaptationthrough:

Imagesource:MainichiShimbun,viaReuters

Astruggleemergingbetweenecosystem-basedapproaches&hardengineeredinterventions

Factorsthatpromotecapitalworksoverecosystem-basedadaptation:

• Acceptedcoastaldefence&acommonpost-disasterresponsethroughoutdonorcountrieso ~50%Europe’scoastisconcretesea

wallo ThegreatJapaneseseawall

• ‘Ribbon-cutting’opportunities

• EaseofM&Eandprojectaccountability

• Legalconcernssuchasvicariousliability

ForPacificSIDS,maladaptationthreatenscoastalecosystemintegrity&communityresilience