adaptation

lessons for climate

change adaptation from better

management of rivers

Guest Editor: Jamie Pittock

lessons for climate

change adaptation from better

management of rivers

Climate change is dramatically affecting freshwater supplies, particularly in the developing world. The papers in this special issue of the Climate and

Development journal present a powerful case for and exploration of different freshwater adaptation strategies in the face of global climatic change.

The volume centres on six detailed case studies, from India, China, Mexico, Brazil, the lower Danube basin and Tanzania, written by experienced local academics and practitioners. They assess autonomous adaptation in the freshwater sector, drawing out important lessons from what motivated these societies to change, which factors led to more successful adaptation, and how interventions may best be sustained. The volume also contains a global overview of the lessons derived from these experiences. It sheds light on the key hypothesis that vulnerability to climate change is best reduced by reducing poverty and promoting sustainable development first, and by reducing bio-physical risks from climate change. The publication also highlights the need to ensure that access to more precise climate change impact data is not used as an excuse to delay implementation of ‘no regrets’ adaptation measures.

Jamie Pittock is currently at the Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University. After 13 years working for the conservation organisation, WWF, he resigned as Director of its Global Freshwater Program in 2007 to undertake research on the lessons, conflicts and synergies between freshwater conservation and climate change policies.

www.earthscan.co.uk9 781849 710909

ISBN 978-1-84971-090-9

lessons for climate change adaptation from

better managem

ent of rivers

Guest Editor: Jam

ie Pittock Natural Resource Management/Climate/Water

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EDITORIAL191 Why a special issue on adaptation and water management?

JAMIE PITTOCK and STEPHEN DOVERS

PAPERS194 Lessons for climate change adaptation from better

management of riversJAMIE PITTOCK

212 Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube:A climate change adaptation case studySUZANNE EBERT, ORIETA HULEA and DAVID STROBEL

220 Freshwater management and climate change adaptation:Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in TanzaniaJAPHET. J. KASHAIGILI, KOSSA RAJABU and PETRO MASOLWA

229 Adapting to climate change in the Godavari River basinof India by restoring traditional water storage systemsBIKSHAM GUJJA, SRABAN DALAI, HAJARA SHAIK and VINOD GOUD

241 Freshwater management and climate change adaptation:Experiences from the Central Yangtze in ChinaXIUBO YU, LUGUANG JIANG, LIFENG LI, JINXIN WANG, LIMIN WANG,

GANG LEI and JAMIE PITTOCK

249 Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin,Mexico: A case study of freshwater climate change adaptationJ. EUGENIO BARRIOS, J. ALFREDO RODRIGUEZ-PINEDA and MAURICIO

DE LA MAZA BENIGNOS

261 Participatory river basin management in the Sao Joao River,Brazil: A basis for climate change adaptation?LUIZ FIRMINO MARTINS PEREIRA, SAMUEL BARRETO and JAMIE

PITTOCK

269 Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation:A natural history approachJOHN H. MATTHEWS and A. J. WICKEL

VOLUME 1 ISSUE 3 2009

Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers

Aims and Scope

Climate and Development is dedicated to the range of issues that arise when climate variability, climatechange and climate policy are considered along with development needs, impacts and priorities. Itaims to make complex analysis of climate and development issues accessible to a wide audience ofresearchers, policymakers and practitioners, and to facilitate debate between the diverseconstituencies active in these fields throughout the world.

The journal provides a forum to communicate research, review and discussion on the interfacesbetween climate, development, policy and practice. Every three months it presents conceptual,policy-analytical and empirical studies of the interactions between climate impacts, mitigation,adaptation and development on scales from the local to global. Contributions from and aboutdeveloping countries are particularly encouraged; however, research on developed countries iswelcome provided that the link between climate and development is the central theme.

Climate and Development is of direct and vital relevance to academics, policy analysts, consultants,negotiators, industrial and non-governmental organisations, and to all those working to ensure abetter understanding of the links between climate and development.

The journal is the platform of choice for academic debate on issues that link climate and development,and invites contributions on all such issues. These include, but are not limited to:

B The vulnerability of communities to the combined impacts of climate change and non-climaticstresses

B Links between development and building capacity to respond to climate changeB The integration (mainstreaming) of climate policy adaptation and mitigation into sectoral planning

and development policyB Conflicts and synergies between mitigation, energy development and povertyB The importance of climate and long-term weather forecasting for developmentB Responsibilities of developing countries in a post-2012 climate policy regimeB The effects of climate change on meeting the Millennium Development GoalsB The implications for development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its

Kyoto Protocol, as well as all other existing or proposed policy frameworksB Financing arrangements for adaptation and mitigation in developing countriesB Economic analysis of the effects of climate adaptation and mitigation on developing countriesB Traditional knowledge and local strategies for managing natural resources and coping with climate

changeB Forest management and its relationship to mitigation, adaptation and developmentB Adaptation, mitigation and the poor

These and other topics are addressed in a number of ways, including:

B Research articles (theoretical developments, concepts and methods, empirical analysis and policyassessments)

B Review articlesB Case studiesB ViewpointsB Book reviewsB Meeting reports

Why a special issue on adaptation andwater management?JAMIE PITTOCK* and STEPHEN DOVERS

Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

The Copenhagen Climate Change conference in March2009 reported that ‘adaptation measures to lessen theimpacts of climate change are urgently needed now.Given the considerable uncertainties around projectionsof climate impacts on water resources at local and regionalscales, building resilience, managing risks, and employ-ing adaptive management are likely to be the most effec-tive adaptation strategies’ (Richardson et al., 2009). Theconference went on to conclude: ‘As part of building effec-tive adaptation, research is urgently required into the impli-cations of existing policies and potential future policieswith regard to adaptation: do they support or hinderadaptation, and how do they need to be changed?’(Richardson et al., 2009). This special edition of Climateand Development aims to contribute to the ongoingprocess of learning how our societies may more effectivelyadapt to a changing climate. We start here by outliningthe choice of focus of this volume and summarizing thepapers that comprise it. We conclude by highlightingthe key lessons drawn from this research.

1. Focus

We chose to focus this edition of Climate and Developmenton water management because it is an important field fromwhich to draw lessons on risk management and adap-tation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) declares that ‘adaptation to changing conditionsin water availability and demand has always been at thecore of water management’ (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).The IPCC define such historical actions in the water sectoras autonomous adaptation measures ‘that do not consti-tute a conscious response to climate stimuli, but resultfrom changes to meet altered demands, objectives andexpectations which, whilst not deliberately designed to

cope with climate change, may lessen the consequencesof that change. Such adaptations are widespread in thewater sector, although with varying degrees of effective-ness in coping with climate change . . .’ (Bates et al.,2008). As such autonomous adaptations are widespreadand possibly the most common form of adaptation to cli-mate change, there is much that society can learn fromthe factors that hinder and facilitate the effectiveness ofsuch measures, and from understanding learning pro-cesses and the limits of adaptation: this is the focus ofthis special edition.

2. Case studies

Climate and Development was established (in part) to:‘make complex analysis of climate and developmentissues accessible to a wide audience of researchers, pol-icymakers and practitioners, and to facilitate debatebetween the diverse constituencies active in these fieldsthroughout the world’, and to ‘offer a possibility of publi-cation for many of the practical lessons that are learnt inprojects but often not shared with the academic commu-nity’. This special edition fills such a role by reporting onthe lessons drawn from six empirical, consistentlydesigned freshwater adaptation case studies from devel-oping countries, based on projects of the conservationorganization WWF (World Wildlife Fund/World WideFund for Nature). These case studies illustrate a numberof issues at the forefront of the global debates on sustain-able water management and climate change adaptation:

B Gujja et al. report on their work in India that assessesthe costs and benefits from restoring traditional villagewater tanks as an adaption measure. Pittock then

editorial

B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]

CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 191–193

doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0019 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com

compares this approach with the proposed construc-tion of a large dam on the Godavari River, encapsulat-ing the debate between proponents of adaptationthrough large infrastructure vs. decentralized andsmall-scale appropriate technologies.

B Yu et al. outline the benefits of restoring flood plainlakes in the central Yangtze River basin compared toreliance on flood ‘protection’ dykes. This paper alsohighlights the enhanced livelihoods derived frommore flood-adapted agri- and aqua-cultural systems,and the importance of concurrent interventions atdifferent geopolitical scales within China.

B Barrios et al. detail their work on enhancing watersecurity in the drought-prone, over-allocated Rio Con-chos basin in northern Mexico. Their paper illustratesthe need for conjunctive management of surface andground waters, the need to use multi-stakeholder pro-cesses to better manage scarce resources, and theopportunities for international treaties to drive localreforms.

B Pereira et al. outline the development of adaptive man-agement capacities through a multi-stakeholder riverbasin consortium at Rio Sao Joao in Brazil. They high-light the enabling power of sound national water law infacilitating basin-scale institution building, communityengagement and adaptive management to progress-ively address environmental problems.

B Ebert et al. describe reform of river management in thelower Danube basin in Eastern Europe. In outlining theadaptation benefits from large-scale floodplain restor-ation for flood management, economic diversificationand biodiversity conservation, they demonstrate howsupranational European institutions have driven reform.

B Kashaigili et al. detail outputs from a programme torestore dry season flows in the Great Ruaha River ofTanzania. They illustrate the benefits of concurrentinstitutional interventions to reduce poverty and directinterventions to reduce vulnerability to water scarcity.

These case studies from practitioners do not fully conformto the idealized formulas of academic research. However,given uncertainties associated with climate changeimpacts and the urgent need to distil and communicatelessons for adaptation in the near term, there is greatvalue in examining programmes that have (in all but onecase) been operating for more than five years. These retro-spective studies of autonomous adaptation in projects byWWF and its partners lack desirable quantitative data in

places. Yet by drawing on multiple cases and using con-sistent analytical frameworks they usefully report the trialsand errors – and successes – of social learning in multi-stakeholder adaptive management processes (Lee,1993). The case studies highlight uncertainties in thesesocieties’ responses to water management and climatevariability and change. Yet it is precisely these sorts ofreal-life examples of adaptation in uncertain conditionsthat researchers, policymakers and society at large needto learn from if the global community is to better adapt tothe problems of climate change and water managementthat afflict our globe.

WWF’s willingness to expose its work to academic scru-tiny is to be welcomed and, consequently, it deserves to berewarded in terms of constructive engagement to furtherenhance their programmes. It is to be hoped that thisvolume inspires other practitioner organizations to publishsimilar assessments of their programme portfolios.

3. Key lessons

In this volume, Pittock reviews the six case studies to derivecommon lessons on policy style and sub-programme detail(Dovers, 2005), to inform practitioners, policymakers andour broader societies on measures that may enhanceadaptation to climate change. Crucially, he observes thata number of charismatic local programme leaders hadnot engaged in climate adaptation, concluding that adap-tation proponents need to engage better with local insti-tutions (Burgess et al., 1998; Meinke et al., 2006) to seizethe opportunities for complementary ‘no and low regrets’adaptations in their current activities. The assessment ofthese freshwater cases in developing countries contributesto debates in the literature, by proposing that climatechange adaptation is best enhanced by:

B concurrently acting to reduce poverty and enhancelivelihoods, and manage biophysical vulnerability,rather than favouring either response alone (Adger,2006; Schipper, 2007);

B favouring investment in scalable, decentralized,small-scale appropriate technologies, and enhancingenvironmental resilience (Tompkins and Adger, 2004),rather than first opting for centralized infrastructure;

B investing in the capacity of local- to basin-scale insti-tutions to apply adaptive management programmesover many years (Connor and Dovers, 2004);

B linking institutions at different geopolitical scales tofacilitate better local to global adaptation (Adger

192 Pittock and Dovers

CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT

et al., 2005), which in most cases will require moreeffective and efficient national institutions.

Matthews and Wickel in this volume draw on the lessonsderived from this WWF work. They note that climatechange impacts on freshwater systems are associatedwith high uncertainty and criticize model-driven ‘impactsthinking’. Identifying the need for multi-generationalresponse, they propose an ‘adaptation thinking’ approachas a template for sustainable development and climatechange adaptation.

Dovers (2009) proposes that ‘we can go at least halfwayto a believable adaptation policy by implementing known,well-supported policy and management options’ and by‘normalizing adaptation, and empowering officials,agencies, local communities’. Pittock’s assessment ident-ifies that in many cases national governments have failedto turn policy into effective action, especially in terms ofimplementing enabling laws and financing measures forsub-national adaptive management institutions, particularlyriver basin management organizations. These projects alsohighlight the extensive opportunities in the freshwater andclimate adaptation field for ‘no and low regrets’ interven-tions: restoration of environmental resilience and other eco-logical services; scalable, decentralized, small-scaleappropriate technologies; and effective, multi-stakeholderadaptive management institutions.

These case studies expose the limits of expert- andmodelling-driven adaptation methods by showing thatknowledgeable and well-meaning local leaders may post-pone action while awaiting better advice and data, whenthe climate impact uncertainties are unlikely to be reducedto a meaningful extent any time soon. The research alsoemphasizes the tremendous opportunities available toimplement practical adaptation measures now.

References

Adger, W. N., 2006. Vulnerability. Global EnvironmentalChange, 16(3). 268–281.

Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W. and Tompkins, E., 2005.Successful adaptation to climate change acrossscales. Global Environmental Change Part A, 15(2).77–86.

Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J. P.(eds). 2008. Climate Change and Water. TechnicalPaper of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.

Burgess, J., Harrison, C. M. and Filius, P., 1998. Environ-mental communication and the cultural politics ofenvironmental citizenship. Environment and PlanningA, 30. 1445–1460.

Connor, R. and Dovers, S., 2004. Institutional Change forSustainable Development. Edward Elgar Publishing,Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, USA.

Dovers, S., 2005. Environment and Sustainability Policy:Creation, Implementation, Evaluation. Federation Press,Annandale, VA.

Dovers, S., 2009. Normalizing adaptation. Global Environ-mental Change, 19(1). 4–6.

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Doll, P., Kabat,P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z. andShiklomanov, I. A., 2007. Freshwater resources andtheir management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergo-vernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry, O. F.Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E.Hanson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cam-bridge, UK. 196.

Lee, K. N., 1993. Compass and gyroscope: integratingscience and politics for the environment. Island Press,Washington, DC and Covelo, CA.

Meinke, H., Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Stone, R., Selvaraju, R.and Baethgen, W., 2006. Actionable, climate knowl-edge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research,33. 101–110.

Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Schellnhuber, H. J., Alcamo,J., Barker, T., Kammen, D. M., Leemans, R., Liverman,D., Munasinghe, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Stern, N. andWaever, O., 2009. Synthesis Report. Climate Change.Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions. University ofCopenhagen, Copenhagen.

Schipper, E. L. F., 2007. Climate Change Adaptation andDevelopment: Exploring the Linkages. Tyndall CentreWorking Paper No. 107. Tyndall Centre for ClimateChange Research, Norwich, UK.

Tompkins, E. L. and Adger, W. N., 2004. Doesadaptive management of natural resources enhanceresilience to climate change? Ecology and Society,9(2). 10.

Editorial 193


Lessons for climate change adaptation from bettermanagement of riversJAMIE PITTOCK*

Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

Autonomous adaptation in the water sector is assessed to derive lessons for more successful climate change adaptationfrom six empirical, consistently designed river management case studies based on projects of WWF. They show that whenadaptation measures are considered in the context of common problems in water management, many practical ways ofbuilding resilience to climate change through mainstream programs are evident. The cases are mainly from developing countries– India, China, Mexico, Brazil, the lower Danube basin and Tanzania – where efforts to reduce environmental degradationand enhance livelihoods have directly helped to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. The key lessonsinclude: the benefits of concurrent measures for improving livelihoods and reducing physical vulnerability; the need toenhance and fund local institutions to mainstream adaptation programmes; and the value in implementing ‘no and lowregrets’ measures despite uncertainties.

Keywords: adaptation; climate change; developing countries; institutions; non-governmental organizations; rivers; water

1. Introduction

The world faces grave challenges in sustaining

water resources for people and nature, problems

that are exacerbated by the impacts of climate

change and the need for ongoing, effective and

efficient adaptation. The term adaptation can be

broadly applied to actions to manage changes

in the environment or society, beyond impacts

induced by climate change. The Intergovernmen-

tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declares

(Kundzewicz et al., 2007, p. 196) that: ‘Adap-

tation to changing conditions in water avail-

ability and demand has always been at the core

of water management’. The IPCC also defines

autonomous adaptation actions as (Bates et al.,

2008, p. 48): ‘those that do not constitute a con-

scious response to climate stimuli, but result

from changes to meet altered demands, objec-

tives and expectations which, whilst not deliber-

ately designed to cope with climate change,

may lessen the consequences of that change.

Such adaptations are widespread in the water

sector, although with varying degrees of effective-

ness in coping with climate change’. As auton-

omous adaptations are widespread and possibly

the most common form of adaptation to

climate change, there is much that society can

learn from the factors hindering and facilitating

the effectiveness of such measures, and this is

the focus of this paper. Further, as the climate

will continue to change, adaptation is considered

in this paper to be an ongoing rather than finite

process (Matthews and Wickel, 2009).

To contribute to the design of more effective

freshwater climate adaptation processes, this

paper considers freshwater case studies that

meet the IPCC’s definition of autonomous adap-

tation to derive lessons on what motivated these

societies to change, the factors that led to more

successful processes, and how interventions may

best be sustained. Rather than a theoretical assess-

ment of what measures could or should be

review article

B *E-mail: [email protected]



implemented, this paper seeks lessons from

ongoing freshwater adaptation processes. The

paper also considers the benefits of these auton-

omous adaptation measures in terms of how

they increase resilience1 (Bates et al., 2008), and

reduce vulnerability2 (Bates et al., 2008).

In many cases climate change is expected to

be felt first, and most severely, by changes

in hydrology. In response, development of

effective policies requires in part ‘practical

implementation knowledge’ as one key evidence

base (Head, 2008), as well as scientific and politi-

cal knowledge. While these case studies have

elements of all three types of knowledge, it is

lessons from ongoing implementation that are

sought in this paper. Rather than a search for a

complete package of programme elements

(Dovers, 2005), the comparative policy analysis

undertaken in this research is focused on sub-

programme detail, derivation of lessons from

specific elements of the processes, and also the

policy style.

In 2008, in presenting the preliminary findings

for UN Water’s 3rd World Water Development

Report, the report’s content coordinator, Dr

William J. Cosgrove, regretted the lack of pub-

lished case studies that linked freshwater man-

agement and its potential to contribute to

climate change adaptation. He called on imple-

menting agencies to publish assessments of

their activities. In response, this paper is intended

to identify such knowledge from the work of a

large non-governmental organization.

This paper reports on the global lessons drawn

from six empirical, consistently designed case

studies of autonomous freshwater adaptation

processes based on projects of a conservation

organization, the World Wide Fund for Nature

(also known as the World Wildlife Fund or

WWF). The cases are from India (Gujja et al.,

2009), China (Yu et al., 2009), Mexico (Barrios

et al., 2009), Brazil (Pereira et al., 2009), the

lower Danube basin (Ebert et al., 2009) and

Tanzania (Kashaigili et al., 2009). Project sites

were selected by the largely independent local

WWF offices at different times, although three

of the six projects were substantially funded in

the period reported on here through a globally

coordinated programme called Investing in

Nature, supported by the Hong Kong Shanghai

Banking Corporation (HSBC) and WWF UK. The

six river basins concerned were all considered by

WWF to be significant for biodiversity conserva-

tion, and their conservation work commenced

more than six years ago at all sites, except with

the Godavari project. Otherwise, the only

common thread in their selection was a need

perceived by WWF and sectors of the local com-

munity to respond to severe environmental

degradation, often indicated by disasters, which

threatened biodiversity and peoples’ livelihoods

(Table 1).

In response to this environmental degradation,

WWF and the local institutions instigated actions

that reduce vulnerability to climate variability

and related natural resource management pro-

blems, including the types of climate impacts

expected to be exacerbated by climate change.

WWF is a proponent of the sustainable develop-

ment environmental discourse (Dryzek, 1997),

and its actions in these field projects reflect their

beliefs in nested social and ecological systems,

that environmental protection and socio-

economic benefits are mutually reinforcing,

and in decentralized, exploratory and variable

approaches in pursuit of sustainability (Lee,

1993).

A key dilemma facing policymakers is whether

adaptation is better facilitated by focusing on bio-

physical risk reduction, or whether it would be

more effective to invest in reducing poverty and

improving livelihoods more generally so as to

build the resilience and adaptability of local com-

munities to climate change impacts (Brooks,

2003; Adger, 2006; Schipper, 2007). The research

considers how such measures are best integrated

into society (Ross and Dovers, 2008). A further

choice is between more technical infrastructure

on the one hand, and on the other, favouring

small-scale and decentralized interventions with

a greater emphasis on increasing societal

capacities (Moench and Stapleton, 2007; Ribot

et al., 2009). These questions are further assessed

in this paper.

Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 195


2. Methods

Six existing WWF projects (see Table 1) were

selected for research by the author in consul-

tation with staff of WWF UK. The projects were

selected on the basis that they had the following

characteristics: a significant focus on people’s

management of hydrological variability; were

from countries with developing or emerging

economies and from a broad continental distri-

bution; and had been under way for sufficient

time to have produced substantial outputs.

This assessment was undertaken between Feb-

ruary and December 2008. Each WWF project

was funded to employ a local consultant report-

ing to the local WWF office to prepare a case

study report responding to an analytical frame-

work. The reports covered the background to

TABLE 1 Environmental degradation and disasters that instigated WWF and societal responses

Basin and location Major environmental degradation and

disasters

WWF project

period

WWF project objective/s (as summarized

by the author)

Maner River tributary

of the Godavari River,

India

Water scarcity – an increasing problem in

the region as populations increase and

water resources are extensively exploited.

Access to water is a focus of many

government and community organizations’

programmes.

March 2005–

February

2007

Assess the socio-economic and

environmental costs and benefits of

restoring traditional village water tanks

as an alternative to major infrastructure

schemes to increase water supplies.

Lakes in the central

Yangtze River basin,

China

Floods, drought, pollution, fishery decline –

all increasing problems. Major floods in

1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999 sparked

responses from governments.

2002 to

present

Demonstrate that re-linking floodplain lakes

to the Yangtze River, and promoting more

diverse and flood-adapted livelihood

activities would improve water quality,

biodiversity conservation and the

livelihoods of local people.

Rio Conchos, Mexico Water scarcity – drought from 1994 to 2006

instigated responses from stakeholders.

2002 to

present

Improve the condition of freshwater

ecosystems in the Rio Grande/Bravo basin

by promoting the application of integrated

river basin management.

Rio Sao Joao (Rio de

Janeiro State), Brazil

Pollution, fishery decline, water scarcity. By

1999 eutrophication of water bodies had

largely eliminated the inland fisheries, and

reduced water access and sparked

community demands for rectification.

1999 to

present

Restore the water quality and biodiversity

of water bodies in the Sao Joao region by

promoting the application of integrated river

basin management.

Lower Danube River,

Romania, Bulgaria,

Moldova and the

Ukraine

Floods, pollution both increasing problems.

Major floods in 1998–2002, 2005 and 2006

resulted in demands for more effective

management by governments and

communities.

1992 to

present

Establishment of the Danube River basin

as a model of nature conservation and

community prosperity, including restoration

of freshwater and forestry resources along

the lower Danube.

Great Ruaha River,

Tanzania

Water scarcity – river ceased flowing in the

dry season from 1993 resulting in a 2001

Prime Ministerial commitment to restore

river flows.

2003 to

present

To enable the people of the Great Ruaha

River catchment to plan, manage and utilize

their water and related natural resources

sustainably, and by doing this, alleviate

poverty and improve livelihoods.

196 Pittock


the work and the outputs and lessons in three

areas: adaptation, livelihoods and conservation.

They were prepared iteratively in consultation

with the author in order to clarify data and

increase consistency between the reports. The

questions that were applied to each of the projects

are detailed in the Annex. The case studies were

then analysed by the author.

The work of these projects involved social and

institutional changes as much as or more than

biophysical and technological interventions.

The measures deployed in these autonomous

adaptation processes can be categorized as:

B Decommissioning or changing the operations

of underperforming infrastructure, like flood

‘protection’ dykes and sluice gates.

B Restoring the ability of the natural environ-

ment to provide ecosystem services, such as

floodwater retention, storing water in aqui-

fers, water purification and fisheries.

B Adopting locally available and small-scale

technologies, such as village water tanks.

B Changing agricultural and aquacultural prac-

tices to more sustainable methods that:

produce fewer pollutants; reuse water, such

as for fish production then irrigation; are

more water efficient; require less inputs;

and secure higher returns for more valued

produce.

B Providing better waste management systems,

especially for sewerage.

B Diversifying local livelihoods into more prof-

itable and less water-dependent enterprises.

B Increasing the incomes derived from natural

commodities, such as fish, to reward produ-

cers adopting more sustainable practices and

increase the resilience of these households.

B Establishing and strengthening local insti-

tutions to facilitate adaptive management

and self-determination, including establish-

ing and enforcing more sustainable behav-

ioural norms for uses of natural resources

such as water.

B Facilitating basin-scale multi-stakeholder insti-

tutions to: establish partnerships; develop

common visions; lead adaptive management;

and connect the local to global measures

needed for more effective adaptation and

sustainability.

B Advocating laws and government program-

mes that facilitate subsidiarity by provid-

ing basin and local institutions with the

mandate and access to resources for adaptive

management.

B Improving connectivity in freshwater ecosys-

tems by applying environmental flows, ensur-

ing wildlife passage through or over water

infrastructure, and restoring riparian habitats.

B Restoring habitats to increase the resilience

of these ecosystems to climate impacts, and

their capacities to support greater populations

of flora and fauna species, especially those

that are threatened or of economic value.

3. Results

Table 2 summarizes the main adaptation, liveli-

hood and conservation benefits to date from the

six projects.

Successful outcomes to date from these auton-

omous adaptation cases can be categorized under

the following:

B Flood retention: increased capacity to safely

retain higher peak flood flows.

B Water security: more reliable access to water in

areas prone to scarcity.

B Pollution reduction: cuts to pollution levels and

the risk that pollution impacts like eutrophi-

cation will be exacerbated by higher tempera-

tures resulting from climate change.

B Livelihoods: diversified income generation

strategies and increased incomes of many par-

ticipants that may increase resilience of com-

munities to climatic events.

B Institutional capacity: established and

strengthened local institutions, increasing

their adaptive management capacities.

B Connectivity: re-linked habitats and popu-

lations of species, enabling greater mobility

and capacity to colonize new habitats that

may be required to survive in a warmer world.



TABLE 2 Summary of key climate adaptation, livelihood and conservation benefits

Project Likely major

climate

change

impacts

Key climate adaptation benefits Key livelihood

benefits

Key ecosystem benefits

Lower

Danube,

eastern

Europe

Increased

flooding

Flood storage increased through

restoration of floodplains. Plan to

restore 2,250 km2. Of this area

14.4% has been or is being restored

Livelihoods diversified Restored 4,430 ha of habitats and

reconnected a 68 km2 lake to the

river

Pollution

exacerbated

Better access to clean

water

Fish and bird populations restored

Biodiversity

impacted

Pollution and the risk of algal

blooms reduced

Ecological services of

EUR500/ha from

restored floodplains

Protected areas expanded by

5,757 km2, including large areas

of floodplains, in Romania

Great

Ruaha

River,

Tanzania

Greater

water

scarcity

Reduced vulnerability to drought Established 20

Community Banks

Flows restored in some places

Biodiversity

impacted

Water Users’ Associations

and other basin institutions

strengthened

Diversified into

livelihoods with

reduced reliance

on water

Water sources and riparian

vegetation restored

Tree felling for charcoal production

reduced

Godavari

tanks,

India

Greater

water

scarcity

Greater surface and ground water

access from restored tanks

Increased agricultural

production,

employment and

incomes

Enhanced habitats for birds in the

tanks

Impacts of

alternative

adaptation

options

Tank management systems

established

Reduced agricultural

inputs

Alternative to environmental damage

from proposed new dam

demonstrated

Programme adopted by the state

government. Alternative to

proposed USD$4 billion dam

demonstrated

Cultural benefits

Yangtze

lakes,

China

Flooding

increased

Restored 450 km2 lakes. Can retain

285 mm3 of flood waters

Improved access to

drinking water

Restored 450 km2 lake habitats, new

60 km2 reserve

Pollution

exacerbated

Pollution and the risk of algal

blooms reduced

Fish resources

increased

Populations of fish, birds and

Yangtze Porpoise increased

Biodiversity

impacted

Government adopted restoration

policies

Diversification of

livelihoods and

increased incomes

Yangtze Forum established for

adaptive management

Continued

198 Pittock


B Populations and habitats: restored populations

of species and areas of habitat that may be

better able to resist and survive impacts of

severe climatic events.

4. Discussion

Reviewing the outputs from these six case studies,

the following eight overarching lessons for more

effective adaptation processes are identified and

listed in Table 3, together with the most relevant

examples.

Considering these cases and lessons further,

the following issues for effective adaptation are

identified for wider discussion:

4.1. Quantifiable targets

Like many organizations, WWF continually

debates whether more targeted and sophisticated

programmes would achieve more benefits for

people and the environment. In these case

studies, there is little doubt that more

climate-informed and target-driven projects

could achieve more effective interventions. For

example, environmental flow methods are being

applied globally to better define the objectives of

freshwater biodiversity conservation and the

thresholds for the quantity and quality of water

required to achieve them under the assumption

of a stationary, natural hydrological regime.

These methods could be applied to maintain

specific freshwater biodiversity values under con-

ditions of climate change (Anon., 2007). In the

Ruaha and Rio Conchos projects, the generic inter-

ventions to attenuate water scarcity are buying

both time and stakeholder ownership of the devel-

opment of scientifically based, quantitative

environmental flows. This suggests that taking

action to adapt to the most obvious problems

should not wait for more precise information. By

TABLE 2 Continued

Project Likely major

climate

change

impacts

Key climate adaptation benefits Key livelihood

benefits

Key ecosystem benefits

Rio

Conchos,

Mexico

Greater

water

scarcity

Vulnerability to drought reduced More secure access

to water

Conservation of endemic fish

Biodiversity

impacted

Established institution for adaptive

basin management

Increased economic

efficiency in

agriculture

Developing payment for ecological

services and environmental flows

Environment recognized as a user

in the water law

Enhanced livelihoods

of communities in the

headwaters

Rio Sao

Joao,

Brazil

Pollution

exacerbated

Pollution cut by 75%, reducing

algal blooms

Restored 244 km2

coastal lagoons,

rejuvenating tourism

and fishing industries

Restored riparian, floodplain and

lagoon habitats. Riparian corridors

link remnant habitat of a threatened

primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin

Biodiversity

impacted

Establishment of multi-stakeholder,

adaptive, river basin management

institutions

Training and

economic

diversification

River connectivity restoration

planned

Management approach adopted

widely in other basins

Improved water

supply



TABLE 3 Lessons derived from the six case studies

Lesson derived Supporting examples Qualifying examples

1. Local ownership. Participation of local

stakeholders increased the sustainability

and effectiveness of the measures.

Ruaha: Community ownership through Water

Users’ Associations has been essential to

agree, implement and enforce measures

beyond the government’s reach;

Godavari: Villagers contributed two-thirds

of the resources needed for tank restoration

and established local management

institutions;

Rio Conchos: The Inter-institutional Working

Group and work with irrigators and villagers in

the river’s headwaters have sustained major

interventions;

Rio Sao Joao: Establishment of the basin

Consortium, including local governments, has

engaged wide sections of the community and

driven reforms to water management.

Danube: To some extent the

national and international demand

for better flood control has

prevailed in place of local

community ownership of

restoration of the Danube

floodplains, but the absence

of local consent has delayed

progress at a number of sites;

Yangtze: While local people and

national authorities both owned

restoration of the floodplain lakes

for improved environmental

quality and livelihoods, local

institutions do not appear to

support the use of these lakes by

national authorities for flood

management purposes.

2. Immediate benefits. Local stakeholder

support depends on receipt of immediate

benefits; these appeared to engender

support for more challenging measures.

Ruaha: Establishment of Community

Conservation Banks and other livelihood

benefits has underpinned support for

environmental flow assessments;

Yangtze: Enhanced livelihoods at initial sites

has seen support for restoration of additional

floodplain lakes;

Rio Conchos: Initial benefits from more

efficient water use have enabled

consideration of environmental flow

allocations;

Rio Sao Joao: Achievement of initial plans for

reduced pollution and restored fisheries has

led to plans for new measures to restore

riparian corridors and the watershed.

-

3. Multiple benefits. Many freshwater

adaptations to climate change impacts are

practical now, can be scaled up, and had

multiple environmental and socio-economic

benefits.

Danube: Floodplain restoration offers

immediate benefits and could be

incrementally scaled up to manage increased

flood risks;

Ruaha: Watershed restoration activities in half

the districts in the basin delivered benefits,

including increased river flows, and could be

expanded to other districts;

-

Continued

200 Pittock


TABLE 3 Continued


Godavari: Village tank restoration is a cheap

option for increasing water supply and could

be expanded to cover more than 200,000

such tanks in India;

Yangtze: Restoration of 200 km2 floodplain

lakes enhanced livelihoods, environmental

quality and flood control, and could be

expanded to a much larger floodplain area;

Rio Conchos: Watershed restoration and

water efficiency measures have

succeeded locally in reducing vulnerability

to drought and could be scaled up

considerably;

Rio Sao Joao: The institutions established for

water pollution reduction have succeeded on

this problem and are now moving

progressively to address other adaptation

challenges in water and basin

management.

4. Linking local to national to global. The most

effective measures drew strength and linked

institutions and action at different geopolitical

scales.

Danube: Obligations under the European

Union and Danube Convention, national

policies and local action have combined

to initiate, fund and implement floodplain

restoration;

Yangtze: National policies for flood control

and more sustainable water management

enabled provincial and local government

authorities to implement the floodplain lake

restoration measures;

Rio Conchos: Obligations under the border

rivers treaty to deliver water to the USA

and funding from the North American

Development Bank, combined with the need

within Mexico to reduce vulnerability to

drought, resulted in effective water efficiency

measures;

Rio Sao Joao: National and state water laws

provided the mandate for the basin

Consortium and underwrote its funding, which

enabled local institutions to implement

reforms more effectively.

Godavari: The case study of

restoration of 12 village tanks

involved relatively local-scale

actions. Yet this case relied on

international funding in a situation

where state and national

institutions had been ineffective

in facilitating action. Scaling up

application of tank restoration

would require state and possibly

national government support to

succeed.

Continued



TABLE 3 Continued


5. Adaptive management. Effective

adaptation was an iterative process over

many years.

Danube: Sequential adoption of stronger

basin agreements, from the Danube

Convention in 1994, Lower Danube Green

Corridor Agreement in 2000 and the EU Water

Framework Directive milestones from 2000 to

2015 have provided renewed impetus for

adaptive management;

Rio Sao Joao: Since its establishment in 1999

the basin Consortium has implemented three

phases of measures, and as the preceding

targets have been met, this has generated

support for new interventions;

Ruaha: To a lesser extent the sequence of

national policies since 1991 and water projects

in this basin are also an example of iterative

processes enhancing awareness of the issues

and options for responses over time.

Godavari: The case study

interventions appear sustainable

after just 2 years. Yet this involved

relatively local-scale actions

applying one technology. It is

likely that an iterative approach

would be required to

incrementally improve local

benefits, such as through tank

watershed conservation, or to

scale up tank restoration through

larger programmes at the state or

national scales.

6. Funding adaptation. Regular funding was

needed to sustain adaptation.

7. Communicating adaptation. The language

and perception of adaptation as new and

complicated appeared to have stymied

engagement of local communities and

governments.

Godavari: Village institutions will collect water

use fees to sustain management of restored

tanks;

Rio Sao Joao: The Consortium was funded

through fees from municipal government

members and local companies. As well, the

head of the Consortium is seconded from the

state government. These resources are used

to leverage additional funding for

management measures.

Godavari, Yangtze and Rio Sao Joao: When

first discussed with programme leaders they

expressed the view that the contradictory and

uncertain scenarios from climate impact

models for these places meant that it was not

possible to define climate change adaptation

measures yet. Additional views expressed

included: different opinions of Chinese

academic and government officials on the

nature of climate change; the need for

vulnerability assessments to precede

adaptation measures; the lack of locally

Ruaha: Although promised in the

national water policy the allocation

of water use fees back to local

management institutions has not

occurred, jeopardizing the ongoing

work of these organizations;

Rio Conchos: State law frustrates

efforts to establish binding

payment for a watershed services

scheme, which would enable

urban dwellers to cross-subsidize

watershed management and

restoration measures.

Danube: The large floods in the

past decade appeared to have

helped key institutions in the basin

agree on the need for floodplain

restoration and a key measure to

manage the impacts of more

frequent flooding due to climate

change;

Continued

202 Pittock


contrast, in the Yangtze and Danube, the flood-

water retention capacities achieved by the restor-

ation of floodplain sites are known and appear to

be part of larger governmental decisions on the

levels of acceptable flood risk.

4.2. Thresholds of climate impacts

Another key question is whether the resilience

building measures implemented in these projects

would be overwhelmed as climate change

impacts exceed key thresholds. For instance, if

climate change impacts become much more

severe there is a risk that the responses to manage

water scarcity and quality documented in these

projects, successful to date, could be insufficient

to meet the future water needs of people and

the environment. Yet these resilience-building

measures have engaged and enhanced the

capacities of local institutions in adaptive manage-

ment processes (such as with the Water User

Associations and the Community Conservation

Banks in the Great Ruaha) that may provide the

social and institutional resources needed to

respond to greater climate impacts. These actions

to date have bought time to consider whether

more radical measures are required. A recent assess-

ment of the Ruaha basin was undertaken and has

concluded that the improved catchment manage-

ment measures (while highly beneficial in increas-

ing river flows and reducing vulnerability of local

communities to water scarcity in the upper basin)

would not exceed the threshold needed to

provide water flow through a major wetland and

further downstream in the central basin in the

dry season. Consequently the diversion of an

upstream tributary, the Ndembera River, around

the Usangu wetland has been proposed to

provide a base flow to the main stem of the river

(Mwaruvanda et al., 2009). Yet nearly all of the

actions described in these case studies have two

prized qualities: they are ‘no or low regrets’

measures, for instance, in increasing flood reten-

tion capacity, and they can be scaled up consider-

ably to substantially increase resilience at a basin

or even greater scales, such as by restoring more

of the estimated 208,000 village tanks in India.

These case studies also illustrate the need to

seize the impetus for adaptation following

major disasters or severe environmental degra-

dation (Adger et al., 2005, p. 85).

4.3. Motivation and adaptive behaviours

While WWF and local institutions did not

initially conceive any of these projects as compre-

hensive climate change adaptation, the degree to

which adaptation was considered varied between

the projects. For example, the Danube project

explicitly addressed floods as a climate change

impact, while the Rio Sao Joao project had not

thought of climate change until it was raised by

this study. WWF is committed to promoting

climate change adaptation measures globally

TABLE 3 Continued


available experts to advise on desirable

measures; and the urgency of reducing

existing threats to sustainable water

management before engaging the

longer-term impacts of climate change.

Rio Conchos: Project leaders

appear to have considered that

the 1994–2006 drought may

represent the sort of climate

change impact to which their

society would need to adapt.

8. Post-disaster reform windows. Adaptation

only followed major disasters or severe

environmental degradation.

All six projects demonstrate this (see Table 1). -



and has provided guidance to staff since at least

2003 (Hansen et al., 2003). The project staff of

WWF and their local institutional partners

include people highly educated in relevant

fields, yet few had focused on climate change.

Why had these local intellectual leaders not

fully considered adaptation needs? What would

mobilize more leaders and their societies to main-

stream adaptation processes?

A response given by staff from three of the

projects when approached to participate in this

research was that insufficient climate change

impact data was available for their river basin

to enable development of targeted actions.

Upon further discussion it appeared that there

were two main reasons why planned climate

adaptation work had not commenced in four of

the six cases. There was a perception that

measures could not commence until climate

change models could supply more specific data

on possible impacts, and a view that the required

expertise and data was not available locally or

nationally. In two cases project staff expressed

the view that, because climate change projections

included a range of contrasting potential out-

comes in terms of rainfall and river inflows, inter-

ventions could be premature. In general, the

option of identifying ‘no and low regrets’ adap-

tation measures had not been explicitly con-

sidered to manage risk and uncertainties. There

was also a commonly held view (with some justi-

fication) that the current, non-climate threats

to the sustainability of the river systems, such as

excessive water diversions and pollution, were

so large and fast-growing that they needed to

be addressed first. Thus most of the project staff

saw the climate change information available to

them as lacking salience (Meinke et al., 2006).

Consequently, proponents of adaptation need

to consider whether the sometimes obscure

methods, jargon, data and expertise around

climate adaptation are a barrier for many societies

to implementation of appropriate measures;

whether shifting from an information deficit to

more participatory approaches would be more

effective in changing behaviour (Burgess et al.,

1998). As a result of participating in this research,

the project staff responded with renewed confi-

dence that the adaptation actions they are

implementing can be enhanced and become

better climate-informed. This suggests that

there are many local institutions that – if direc-

tly engaged in locally relevant ways (Burgess

et al., 1998; Meinke et al., 2006) – will consider

climate change adaptation measures. It was also

clear that many local people and institutions

initially implemented these actions more for the

short-term benefits for livelihood and develop-

ment, and only later came to support the

programmes for their benefits in reducing vulner-

abilities to climatic variability and other environ-

mental hazards. To succeed, proponents need to

link climate adaptation to outcomes of value to

local communities.

4.4. Enhancing livelihoods vs. reducing risks

In terms of whether adaptation outcomes are best

achieved by focusing on social and biophysical

risk reduction or by development to reduce

poverty and enhance livelihoods (Adger, 2006;

Schipper, 2007) compelling evidence emerges

from these projects that a concurrent investment

facilitates more effective change. All the projects

had substantial components focused on enhan-

cing livelihoods as well as other environmental

measures, consistent with WWF’s support for sus-

tainable development. This is well illustrated

by the Great Ruaha and Godavari case studies,

where average incomes were just USD0.80 and

USD1.34 per day, respectively. In the Great

Ruaha, the establishment of Community Conser-

vation Banks enabled diversification into less

water-intensive and more profitable livelihoods

concurrently with the establishment of Water

User Associations to enhance local governance

of water and reduce risks. In the Godavari basin,

capital investment to reduce vulnerability to

water scarcity by expanding village tanks was pro-

vided alongside the establishment of village tank

management committees, the recruitment of

local labourers to maintain the tanks, and

enhancement of agricultural production and

204 Pittock


employment. The prospect of sustainable devel-

opment also appears to have been vital in secur-

ing the support of local and provincial scales of

government, notably in China.

4.5. Centralized infrastructure vs.decentralized interventions

These case studies also highlight the benefits of

focusing on small-scale, decentralized adaptation

measures and increasing societal capacities rather

than investing in more technical infrastructure

(Moench and Stapleton, 2007). In water manage-

ment globally there is a pervasive bias towards

investment in supply-side and centralized water

infrastructure solutions (Molle, 2008). In the God-

avari case, the WWF project suggests that restoring

all the village tanks in the relatively small Maner

River sub-basin at an estimated cost of USD635

million would provide a water storage capacity

(1.764 billion m3 at 3 m depth) (Gujja et al., 2009)

similar to the proposed USD4 billion Polavaram

Dam on the Godavari River (2.130 billion m3)

(Gujja et al., 2006). While not strictly comparable,

because the larger catchment of the dam may see

it divert over 4 times more water (8.130 billion m3

proposed) than the restored tanks, the cost of

tank restoration appears cheaper than the pro-

posed dam. Further, the dam would displace

250,000 people, inundate sites of environmental

and cultural value, and supply a relatively con-

strained region. By contrast with the dam,

restored village tanks would be more widely dis-

tributed to supply the poorest sections of society

and enable local communities to manage their

own water supplies. Similarly, in the cases of

both the Danube and the Yangtze, the physical

limits and costs of raising ever higher flood ‘pro-

tection’ dykes appear to be outweighed by the

potential of greater safety, lower costs and mul-

tiple benefits derived from restoring floodplains.

4.6. Mainstreaming adaptation processes

Better methods for integrating adaptation pro-

cesses into society are also suggested from the

WWF case studies which support Ross and

Dovers’ (2008) proposition that the ‘most

prominent success factors, barriers and gaps that

effect environmental policy integration relate to

leadership, long term embedding of environ-

mental policy integration and implementation

capacity’.

Charismatic local leadership and the estab-

lishment or strengthening of local or basin-

scale institutions appears vital from the six

projects. Local institutions had a key role in

establishing new social norms to effect the

changes in behaviour needed to better manage

water, especially in those societies where the

reach of government is limited, as illustrated

in the Tanzanian, Indian and Brazilian case

studies. At the basin scale, in the most successful

programmes – those in Brazil, Mexico and the

Danube – multi-stakeholder river basin organiz-

ations had been established and showed signs

of the systematic social learning promoted by

Lee (2003). Their work plans had set medium-

term targets that, once achieved, had built confi-

dence and facilitated a virtuous cycle of adaptive

management through new iterations of basin

plans similar to that described by Dovers (2005).

In the case of Sao Joao, for instance, the Sao

Joao Consorcio is implementing the third

phase of their work, having achieved the pol-

lution reduction and other targets of their first

two plans.

In the best cases, a modest level of indepen-

dent income appeared vital to the effectiveness

of local institutions. In Brazil, the Sao Joao

Consorcio secured a reliable income to under-

write a large part of their work from: (a)

municipal government membership fees scaled

according to the population of their jurisdic-

tions, and (b) local company participation

fees. In addition, the state government

seconded a staff member to lead the secretariat

of the consortium. By contrast, in Tanzania

promises by the national government to allo-

cate water user fees to local institutions had

not been implemented, leaving these organiz-

ations dependent on aid funds. In Mexico,

state law prevented the establishment of a



scheme to provide compulsory payments for

environmental services. The social, institutional

and environment-focused interventions studied

had a modest cost and were cheaper than either

identified impacts or alternative options, such

as the dam proposed in India. Upfront invest-

ment was required for necessary infrastructure,

seed capital or loans, and to pay transition

costs. The initial funding came from non-

governmental organizations, development banks

and other aid donors. National governments

often contributed funding only after the

measures had shown the potential to succeed

and, in some situations, were yet to implement

promised reforms to guarantee funding for sub-

national institutions.

This research sought to collect data on the return

on investment of the measures implemented

and proposed from these projects. While this

information is incomplete, an assessment is poss-

ible. In the lower Danube a flood in 2005 killed

34 people and caused EUR396 million (USD625

million) in damages, whereas restoration of a

larger area of floodplains would cost an estimated

EUR20 million based on WWF project experience

and generate ecological services worth EUR50

million per year. In Tanzania, each of the Water

User’s Associations cost USD13–27,000 to estab-

lish, and each Community Conservation Bank

required an initial loan of USD4,000, compared

to a national water budget of USD951 million

from 2008 to 2011. The Maner sub-basin project

to restore 12 village tanks serving 42,000 people

cost WWF USD28,000 with USD75,000 contribu-

ted in kind by local people, and as indicated

earlier, tank restoration appears more cost-

effective than the large dam proposed on the

Godavari River. In the Rio Conchos, an initial

expenditure of USD140 million was made to

reduce irrigation surface water demand, and the

Inter-institutional Working Group is investing

USD3.2–4.4 million per year to manage the

basin more sustainably. These examples demon-

strate that investments in adaptations that

reinforced institutional capacities and strength-

ened environmental resilience can be modest,

may have a substantial return on investment,

and may be cheaper than alternative large-scale

infrastructure projects.

4.7. Adaptation at different scales

Adger et al. (2005) argue that the success of adap-

tation processes at different scales can be judged

by whether they are: (a) effective (are robust in

the face of uncertainty and flexible), (b) efficient

(in terms of costs and benefits), (c) equitable,

and (d) legitimate. The most effective processes

seen in these case studies drew strength and

linked action at different geopolitical scales. Sub-

national governments were enthusiastic partners

in these programmes, apparently motivated by

sustainable development opportunities and the

need to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards.

National laws and resource provision that

support basin- and sub-basin-scale institutions

appeared vital for adaptive management of fresh-

waters, and were a considerable barrier where

they did not exist, or had perverse impacts.

Basin and multilateral treaties were a catalyst for

better river management in trans-boundary situ-

ations, although they could be considered inflex-

ible in terms of their provisions in the event of

climate change, for instance, in specifying par-

ticular water allocations. In the case of the Rio

Conchos, Mexico’s challenge in meeting its

water delivery obligations to the USA ensured

that considerable funding was available for river

management reforms, that the state and national

governments were supportive, and in future it

may be possible to enhance environmental out-

comes through smarter water delivery to the Rio

Grande/Bravo. In the Danube basin the Inter-

national Convention for the Protection of the

Danube River, and the obligations of EU

member states to implement the EU Water Frame-

work Directive and related laws appeared to

be a powerful driver for national law reform in

Bulgaria and Romania. At different scales the

measures adopted in the Danube are robust and

flexible in terms of, for instance, capacity to

increase flood water retention. In each of these

case studies the interventions appeared efficient,

206 Pittock


with benefits outweighing alternatives, social

equity was improved through enhanced

livelihoods, and legitimacy was established

through extensive local and multi-stakeholder

participation.

4.8. Responses from other practitioners

The Yangtze and Ruaha case studies and the pre-

liminary conclusions of this research were pre-

sented on 21 August 2008 at the Water and

Climate Day 2, Adaptation in Practice session

of the Stockholm World Water Week, along with

the research of four others. Dr Guy Howard, for

the UK Department for International Develop-

ment (Anon., 2008) summarized the main mess-

ages related to this research for more effective

adaptation from the presentations and partici-

pants’ discussion. The importance of climate-

smart local, regional and national water

management institutions was recognized.

Multiple benefits were identified from invest-

ment in ecosystems as adaptation measures

because they can be cheap, scalable and will not

limit future options. It was noted that successful

examples of self-help strategies relied on visible

and relatively immediate socio-economic

returns. The benefits of learning by doing based

on best current knowledge were observed, and

the difficulty of upscaling and mainstreaming

adaptation strategies were noted. It was con-

cluded that funding predictability is just as impor-

tant as the scale of funding for local institutions.

5. Conclusions

The six cases studied in this report show that,

when adaptation measures are considered in the

context of common problems in water manage-

ment, many practical ways of building resilience

to climate change through mainstream pro-

grammes are evident. Many freshwater interven-

tions identified in these projects could be scaled

up and had benefits for peoples’ livelihoods

and for nature conservation: they were ‘no and

low regrets’ measures. Further lessons on

sub-programme detail and policy styles derived

from these case studies that could support suc-

cessful adaptation programmes include the

value of: local ownership; provision of some

immediate benefits; linking local to global

actions; applying adaptive management; consist-

ently funding programmes; better explaining the

opportunities for action; and seizing post-disaster

policy response opportunities.

This research demonstrates that adaptation is

best considered as a pathway that starts by imple-

menting ‘no and low regrets’ measures to address

obvious vulnerabilities that most societies could

undertake with locally available knowledge and

technologies. These small-scale measures can be

scaled up, and they also buy time for thinking

about and gathering the resources needed for sol-

utions to more challenging problems, should

they later emerge. A number of these case

studies exhibit a virtuous cycle where initial, suc-

cessful interventions have generated stakeholder

support and built capacities for progressively

more sophisticated measures that will further

enhance adaptation to climate change. This

pathway could be accelerated in many societies

by investing in the development of expertise in

technical skills and facilitating institutional

development.

Freshwater resources and ecosystems are

under great threat from non-climate-related

pressures, and water managers are focused on

finding solutions to these challenges. The daunt-

ing and global nature of climate change appears

to have further dissuaded many leaders and

institutions from engaging in climate change

adaptations in many of the cases studied. A

common perception that particular expertise,

data and methods are needed appears to have

stalled active consideration of the issue and

opportunities.

This research supports Dovers’ (2009)

propositions that ‘we can go at least halfway to

a believable adaptation policy by implementing

known, well-supported policy and manage-

ment options’ and by ‘normalizing adaptation,

and empowering officials, agencies, local

communities’.



Acknowledgements

Dr Kossa Rajabu from WWF Tanzania, who died

in December 2008, contributed to this research.

WWF staff and local consultants who prepared

the case studies assessed in this paper include:

B Danube: Andreas Beckmann, David Strobel,

Suzanne Ebert and Kimberly Chan.

B Ruaha: Japhet Kashaigili, Petro Masolwa and

Kossa Rajabu.

B Godavari: Biksham Gujja, Sraban Dalai, Hajara

Shaik and Vinod Goud.

B Yangtze: Xiubo Yu, Luguang Jiang, Jinxin

Wang, Jiang Zhu, Gang Lei, Limin Wang and

Lifeng Li.

B Sao Joao: Firmino Pereira, Samuel Barreto and

Michael Volcker.

B Conchos: Venancio Trueba, Eugenio Barrios,

Mauricio De la Maza Benignos and Alfredo

Rodrıguez.

This research was sponsored by HSBC Climate

Partnership, and was supported by WWF UK, in

particular: Dave Tickner, Philip Leonard, Tom Le

Quesne and Mica Ruiz. Comments were grate-

fully received from Dr John Matthews, Dr Karen

Hussey and Prof Stephen Dovers, and two

reviewers. This research draws on the work of

many WWF staff, partners and donors whose

contributions are greatly appreciated.

Notes

1. Resilience has been defined as ‘the ability of a social

or ecological system to absorb disturbances while

retaining the same basic structure and ways of func-

tioning, the capacity for self organization, and the

capacity to adapt to stress and change’ (IPCC, 2007).

2. Vulnerability has been defined as ‘the degree to

which a system is susceptible to, and unable to

cope with, adverse effects of climate change, includ-

ing climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is

a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of

climate change and variation to which a system is

exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity’

(IPCC, 2001).

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Annex: Analytical framework

A. Background and overview

Place/river basin

Country

Why it is an example of climate change

adaptation

Summary (of sections B–D):

B Change in climate change resilience

B Change in livelihoods

B Change in conservation status

Key lessons

B What worked

B What did not work well



Timeline of processes and WWF and partners’

interventions

Quality of the data. If any of the questions below

could not be answered, why not?

Main actors – their roles and relationships:

B Government agencies: local/provincial or

state/national/multilateral

B Business

B Community

B Multi-stakeholder

What intra- and inter-governmental processes

were used?

What elements made interactions between these

stakeholders positive or negative?

B. Climate change adaptation

1. What was the baseline situation?

2. What are the natural historic, climatic and

hydrologic risks in the area?

3. How do local people cope with these risks

traditionally?

4. What increased risks are forecast with climate

change?

5. What are the project’s climate change adap-

tation outcomes? Can these be quantified?

To what extent are these based on having

more resilient institutions?

6. Were these planned or serendipitous?

7. Were these planned to address a future fore-

cast threat (e.g. potentially larger floods or

greater water scarcity) or were they intended

to incrementally improve management of

an existing problem (e.g. current flood levels

or current water shortages)?

8. Is the improvement in climate change adap-

tation sustainable?

9. Why has the project been successful in

improving climate change adaptation?

B What activities have been carried out at

the macro, meso and micro scales?

B Which formal institutions were in place

that have contributed to a favourable

outcome?

B Which informal institutions were in place


outcome?

B What assumptions were made before the

project was implemented and were these

realistic?

B What was the time frame within which

benefits could be measured?

B How were local people, their knowledge

and needs integrated into the project?

B Which partnerships with stakeholders

were established in the project and what

roles did these play?

10. What should be done differently for similar

projects in future?

11. Can the outcomes in the project site compare

to a similar place that was not involved in the

project?

12. What needs to be done to ramp up these

adaptation techniques to the basin scale

and what would it cost?

C. Socio-economics


2. What are the project’s livelihood outcomes?

(a) More income?

(b) Increased well-being?

(c) Reduced vulnerability?

(d) More sustainable use of the natural

resource base?

3. What is the distribution of socio-economic

benefits?

(a) Gender?

(b) Age groups?

(c) Income groups?

(d) Disadvantaged groups (HIV/AIDS, unem-

ployed, disabled, etc)?

4. What would have happened to people’s liveli-

hoods without the project?

5. Is the improvement in livelihoods

sustainable?


improving livelihoods?

B What activities have been carried out at the

macro, meso and micro scales?

210 Pittock


B Which formal institutionswere inplace that

have contributed to a favourable outcome?



outcome?



realistic?









projects in future?

8. Can you compare the outcomes in the project

site to a similar place that was not involved in

the project?

9. What would be the socio-economic impacts of

business-as-usual and what is the benefit of

magnifying the project to the other relevant

parts of the river/basin? Balance this with

what it would cost to implement these adap-

tation techniques in the above section.

D. Conservation


2. What was the conservation objective/s of

WWF’s intervention/s?

3. What are the project’s environmental

outcomes?

4. Is the improvement in conservation

sustainable?


improving conservation?

B What activities have been carried out at the

macro, meso and micro scales?

B Which formal institutions were in place


outcome?



outcome?



realistic?









projects in future?

7. Can you compare the outcomes in the project

site to a similar place that was not involved in

the project?

8. What would be the impact of business-as-

usual and the conservation/ecological benefits

of ramping up to the river/basin scale?



Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube:A climate change adaptation case studySUZANNE EBERT1,*, ORIETA HULEA2 and DAVID STROBEL1

1WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme Office, Mariahilferstrasse 88a/3/9, 1070 Vienna, Austria2WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme – Romania, Mircea Vulcanescu Street No. 109 Sector 1, Bucharest, RO-01 0818 Romania

Conversion of the Danube river floodplains through dyke construction for farming and other development has cut off 95, 75 and28% of the floodplains of the upper Danube, the lower Danube and the Danube delta, respectively. Together with channelization,this has exacerbated flood peaks. Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to bring more frequent flooding and reducedwater quality. In assessing ongoing floodplain restoration work that commenced in 1993, this paper finds the following. (a) Alongthe lower Danube River, restoration of floodplains by decommissioning under-performing flood protection infrastructure hasprovided many benefits. The benefits of these adaptation measures include improved natural capacity to retain and releasefloodwaters and remove pollutants, enhanced biodiversity, and strengthened local economies through diversification of liveli-hoods based on natural resources. (b) The drivers for more successful adaptation measures in the Danube included EUexpansion, legal mechanisms, and local desire to improve livelihoods. The support of non-governmental organizations (WWFand partner organizations) for basin- and regional-level planning for more effective water resource management has also been apowerful driver of policy change in the lower Danube countries.

Keywords: climate change adaptation; Danube; floodplain restoration; floods; Romania; Ukraine

1. Introduction

This paper assesses freshwater climate change

adaptation work in the lower Danube River

basin in Romania and Ukraine, instigated by

WWF, a conservation non-governmental organiz-

ation (NGO). The purpose of this assessment is to

derive lessons on (a) what motivated policy-

makers to act, (b) which factors led to more suc-

cessful climate adaptation, and (c) how the

interventions may be best sustained in coming

decades. We consider that better practices for

adaptation may best be identified from existing

adaptation measures. Hence this study was

undertaken to draw lessons from work that com-

menced in 1992 to restore floodplains and reduce

climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems

and the livelihoods dependent on these

environments.

Falling within the territories of 19 European

states, the 801,463 km2 Danube River basin is

home to 81 million people (ICPDR, 2004). At

2,780 km long, the Danube River (see Figure 1)

has been subject to extensive development and

political change. Based on the gradients of

different sections, the Danube River can be

divided into three sub-regions: the upper basin

from the source to Bratislava in Slovakia, the

middle basin from Bratislava to Iron Gates in

Romania, and the lower basin from Iron Gates

to the Danube Delta on the Black Sea (see

Figure 2). This paper focuses on the lower

Danube basin.

This paper also assesses whether restoration

of natural floodplain integrity – a ‘soft’ adap-

tation – in place of conventional ‘hard’ infra-

structure solutions provides greater benefits

to nature and human livelihoods and more

case study




long-term flexibility in addressing negative

impacts from anthropogenic climate change.

Resilient, healthy habitats such as wetlands and

natural river side arms not only aid biodiversity

conservation, but also enhance the services

these ecosystems supply to local people, such as

better water quality, fish, reeds and timber.

Pollution from agriculture (�50%), cities

(�25%) and industry (�25%) makes the Danube

the largest source of nutrients into the Black

Sea, which suffers from a hypoxic ‘dead zone’

near the estuary (Behrendt, 2008). Restoring river-

ine wetlands may be one means of reducing this

pollution.

Conversion of historical floodplains through

flood protection dykes for agriculture, aquacul-

ture and intensive forestry has cut off 95, 75 and

28% of the floodplains of the upper Danube, the

FIGURE 1 The Danube River basin

Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube 213


lower Danube and the Danube delta, respectively

(UNDP/GEF, 1999). The ‘gradient’ of the remain-

ing floodplain reflects actions over the course of

the 20th century. In particular, the lesser degree

of development along the lower Danube in the

communist era left intact large areas of floodplain

forest and other wetland habitats. The excision of

the floodplains, especially upstream, has exacer-

bated flood peaks. In 2005 a flood killed 20

people, displaced 10,000 people, and caused

USD625 million (�EUR444 million) in damages

in Bulgaria (Petrova, 2005). One year later a

flood displaced 15,000 people and inundated

80,000 ha in Romania alone (Shepherd, 2005).

Moreover, floods in Romania have caused an esti-

mated EUR1.66 billion in damages between 1992

and 2005, exceeding the gross national product

(GNP) by 0.6% (Mihailovici, 2006). Climate

change is expected to lead to major changes in

annual and seasonal water availability across

Europe. South-eastern regions (including the

lower Danube region) will be particularly

exposed to an increase in the frequency and

intensity of droughts as well as extreme high

river flows due to an increase in heavy rain

events (Czako and Mnatsakanian, 2008; EEA,

2008). Projections for Romania (Balteanu et al.,

2009) show an expected increase in mean

annual temperature of 2ºC over the next 40

years, as well as significant seasonal variability

of the precipitation regime. Although quantitat-

ive projections of changes in precipitation and

river flows remain uncertain (EEA, 2008),

climate change signals are sufficient to justify

action beyond existing scientific uncertainties.

Along the lower Danube River more frequent

flooding is expected. Reactivation of former wet-

lands and floodplain may increase floodwater

retention and improve water quality, thus bene-

fiting nature and the people of the region.

FIGURE 2 Boundaries of the upper, middle and lower Danube River basin

214 Ebert, Hulea and Strobel


2. Methods

WWF commenced work on the Danube in 1992

and promoted the establishment of the Conven-

tion for the Protection of the Danube River

(DRPC, 1994) in 1994 and the European Union

(EU) Water Framework Directive (EC, 2000)

in 2000. Also in 2000, WWF secured agreement

from the heads of state of Bulgaria, Romania,

Moldova and Ukraine to restore 2,236 km2 of

floodplain to form the 9,000 km2 Lower Danube

Green Corridor (or LDGC) (WWF, 2008). The

LDGC is intended to attenuate floods, restore

and protect biodiversity, improve water quality

and enhance local livelihoods.

The projects investigated here are located in

the LDGC area. Pilot projects to demonstrate

the importance of floodplain restoration assessed

in this case study include:

B the 1993–1996 reconnection of the 36.8 km2

Babina and Cernovca polders to the Danube

hydrological regime (i.e. a low-lying tract of

land used for agriculture or fish farming,

usually separated from a nearby body of

water by embankments) in Romania, and

B the re-linking of the 68 km2 Katlabuh Lake to

the river and removal of dykes on the 7.5 km2

Tataru Island in Ukraine from 2005 to 2008.

Restoration of Babina and Cernovca polders was

possible due to cooperation between WWF and

the Danube Delta Research Institute. The

opening of the surrounding dykes and natural

flooding of the polders resulted in a mosaic of

aquatic habitats rich in biodiversity, natural

resources and water retention areas, which in

turn provided benefits to the local communities.

In Ukraine, as part of a partnership between

WWF and the Odessa Oblast Water Management

Board, a sluice was built in the dyke separating

Katlabuh Lake from the Danube River. WWF and

the local forestry unit joined efforts to remove

the surrounding dykes on Tataru Island, allowing

natural flooding to occur to revitalize the wetlands

and the floodplain forest. The island, formerly a

forestry polder uneconomic as a business, now

offers natural spawning and nesting grounds for

fish and birds among other important natural

resources for the local communities. Although

accounting for a small part of the LDGC potential

restoration area, these pilot projects demonstrate

the benefits of restoring lost and degraded

wetlands and provide valuable experience and

lessons for further restoration initiatives.

In 2006, the potential for floodplain restora-

tion and the potential costs and benefits of using

‘soft infrastructure’ for flood protection along

the Danube were assessed by WWF (Schwarz

et al., 2006). The study used GIS data and satellite

images to evaluate floodplain loss along the

Danube. Detailed analyses of four smaller areas

on the lower Danube were used to better quantify

the costs and benefits of floodplain restoration on

flood risk mitigation, including the retention area

and discharge capacity. This 2009 case study was

prepared using an analytical framework as part of

a larger review of freshwater autonomous adap-

tation projects by WWF (see Pittock, 2009).

3. Results

As of 2008, 469 km2 of floodplain – 14.4% of the

LDGC area pledged by the governments in 2000 –

has been restored or is undergoing restoration

(WWF Danube-Carpathian Office, unpublished

data). Although implementation of the full flood-

plain restoration is incomplete, flood control

benefits are already visible. The restored 21 km2

Babina island polder holds 35 million m3 in

floodwaters during significant inundation

events (Marin and Schneider, 1997). These pilot

restoration sites are in the Danube delta where

the flood safety benefits are less obvious than at

sites located further upstream, but they clearly

demonstrate the value of restoring floodplains

to lessen the impacts of flood events. If the 2000

LDGC agreement to restore a total area of

2,236 km2 is fully implemented, potential flood

control benefits would be even larger. Moreover,

the restoration of floodplainsand former side chan-

nels along the entire Danube, not just in the LDGC

area, would provide nearly 2,100 million m3



in flood retention capacity and would lower

Danube extreme flood peaks (like the 2006

floods) by 40 cm (Schwarz et al., 2006, p. 5). To

aid decision making by governments on flood-

plain restoration priorities, WWF has identified

potential floodplain restoration sites throughout

the Danube basin that coincide with biodiversity

conservation priorities, whose restoration offers

dual biodiversity conservation and flood control

benefits (Schwarz et al., 2006, p. 30).

From a development perspective, floodplain

restoration appears to enhance local livelihoods.

Reduced vulnerability to floods by restoring the

retention capacity of the floodplain, especially

by reconnecting side arms and widening the

floodplain upstream of settlements, is a major

benefit for communities. Most of the polders tar-

geted for conversion within the Danube delta

were used for intense cropping, an activity that

was neither very appropriate for the local

environmental conditions nor profitable since

the change from centralized economies in the

1990s. Most polders were associated with declin-

ing profits over recent decades due to poor land

management (Staras, 2000). Based on data from

Stiuca et al. (2002), restoration of the Babina

and Cernovca pilot polders in Romania resulted

in a diversification in livelihood strategies

towards fishing, tourism, reed harvesting and

livestock grazing on seasonal pastures, activities

that earn an average USD37 per ha per year

(about USD140,000/year for both polders;

�EUR26 per ha/year and �EUR99,000/year).

From an ecosystem perspective, each hectare of

restored wetland is calculated to produce 34 kg

of commercial-sized fish per year (Stiuca et al.,

2002), and at the 36.8 km2 Babina and Cernovca

polders, the restored fisheries provide jobs for

20–25 people (Staras, 2000). At Katlabuh Lake,

improved water quality will enhance access for

10,000 local residents to drinking and irrigation

water. Natural wetland habitats have returned to

Tataru Island after dykes were removed.

According to Kettunen and ten Brink (2006), a

large-scale calculation of the economic values for

the restored lower Danube estimate the benefits

based on Romanian expert estimations for

nutrient reduction, provision of fish, reeds,

crops, vegetables, animals and tourism at

EUR1,354 per ha/year. Schwarz et al. (2006) esti-

mate economic benefits from nutrient reduction

in floodplains at EUR870 per ha/year. Another

WWF study calculates the value based on pro-

vision of fish, forestry, animal fodder, nutrient

retention as well as recreation and gives an esti-

mate of about EUR383 per ha/year (Gren et al.,

1995). Therefore, based on these highly differing

economic values, an average value was calculated

to be around EUR500 per ha/year (Schwarz et al.,

2006) for provision of ecosystem services for fish-

eries, forestry, animal fodder, nutrient retention

and recreation through floodplain restoration.

Limited data availability and published studies

on the economic value of the current land use in

the floodplain does not allow for effective com-

parison with the values of restored functions

and services of the wetlands. However, recent

assessments in Romania (DDNI, 2008) show an

economic value of EUR360 per ha/year for areas

intensively used for agriculture. If the total

pledged floodplain area in the LDGC were

restored, we estimate the value of the resulting

additional ecosystem services at EUR111.8

million annually (225,000 ha � EUR500/ha).

Restoration efforts in the 9,000 km2 LDGC

also enhanced biodiversity conservation. For

instance, following restoration of the 21 km2

Babina island polder, the number of resident

bird species increased from 34 to 72, and over a

quarter of the water bird species commenced

breeding (Marin and Schneider, 1997).

4. Discussion

Motivations for floodplain and wetland restor-

ation varied among stakeholder groups. Local

communities directly relying on the availability

and quality of natural resources were supportive

of restoration measures likely to improve their

livelihood and bring opportunities to strengthen

local economies.

National governmental authorities undertook

restoration to improve the local ecological



situation, reduce vulnerability to flooding,

improve water quality and increase local

incomes while reducing the pressures on the

natural areas. NGOs, such as WWF, support res-

toration to promote biodiversity conservation

through habitat improvement, among other

things. National governments are seeking to

fulfil their obligations under EU legislation,

such as the Water Framework Directive and the

Danube River Protection Convention, to adopt

new and more sustainable river management

practices. The expansion of the EU into Eastern

Europe has been one driver for the reform of

river basin management, to promote integrated

water resources management, together with the

obligation of Eastern European countries

(Romania and Bulgaria) to transpose and comply

with EU laws. This reinforces the points Adger

et al. (2005) make on the need for and benefits of

implementation of adaptation measures across

scales.

The floodplain restoration efforts appear to be

sustainable. Reversion to previous exploitative

attitudes towards floodplain habitats is unlikely

in most cases because of the high cost of rebuild-

ing dykes; in most cases the restored floodplains

are designated as protected areas (of national or

European importance), local people’s livelihoods

have improved and the threat from flooding has

lessened. Management costs of the restored flood-

plains are low relative to the hard infrastructure

they replace.

However, political barriers were encountered

during the restoration process. Government

implementation at the national and local levels

of restoration efforts was slower than anticipated.

The appointment of officials and agencies to lead

the work is time-consuming, which exacerbated

the time required to develop national implemen-

tation plans and allocate restoration funds. Most

of the funding for floodplain restoration in the

pilot areas has come from a combination of

local authorities, EU, NGOs and other donor

organizations. In some instances (especially in

the LDGC area) local people do not always

consent to restoration where changes in land

ownership and concession laws have hindered

progress. To reduce these obstacles, WWF has

informed and lobbied stakeholders at local,

national and international levels for floodplain

restoration, signing memorandums of under-

standing and organizing public meetings and

seminars. The organization has also resorted to

providing resources to cover costs ineligible for

governmental funds. In one case WWF provided

up to one-half of total restoration costs for

co-funding a pilot project.

Making use of post-disaster policy windows

has been a key lesson. Governments of countries

affected by the 2005–2006 floods took immediate

actions to develop flood risk mitigation strategies

and action plans that include floodplain restor-

ation as an adaptation measure. For instance,

Romania is currently completing a national

floodplain restoration strategy aimed at reducing

flood risk (DDNI, 2008).

In spite of favourable cost–benefit analyses

(UNDP/GEF, 1999), policymakers have been

slow to promote floodplain restoration as a form

of sustainable flood protection because:

B it is still a relatively new concept in the region

and lacks some governmental commitment;

B changing the land use in the area has socio-

economic implications (most of the land has

been privatized);

B influential stakeholders with interests in

short-term exploitation of the floodplain

exert political pressure; and

B the cost of transitional restoration works and

compensatory measures is high.

Individual actions are constrained by insti-

tutional processes, such as regulatory structures,

property rights, and social norms associated

with rules in use (Adger et al., 2005). This is true

for the examples presented in this case study,

where the success of the interventions depends

highly on the constraints on smaller political

and jurisdictional scales, such as the municipal-

ity, county or concession area.

Persistent work over more than 10 years has

been required to achieve the outcomes to date.

Considerable time and resources for monitoring



and assessment in terms of adaptive management

should be major components for other groups

considering similar projects. Linking work at

local, national, basin and European scales has

been critical to achieving change.

There is great potential to scale up restoration

activities from these pilot projects. Based on the

Romanian pilot projects WWF estimates that

dyke removal costs EUR50,000–200,000 per km,

depending on the nature of the dyke wall, plus

compensation for changes in land use (Schwarz

et al., 2006). From this work WWF has calculated

that restoration of four polders covering

1,000 km2 in Romania would cost around

EUR20 million, hold 1,600 million m3 of flood-

waters, and generate ecosystem services worth

EUR50 million per year (Schwarz et al., 2006).

These ecosystem services do not include an esti-

mate of the losses that would result from flooding

if these sites were unrestored, and significantly

these four polders did flood in 2006. Further, res-

toration of the 37 floodplain sites that make up

the LDGC is estimated to cost EUR183 million

(WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme, unpub-

lished data), compared to total damages costing

an estimated EUR400 million on the lower

Danube from the spring 2006 floods (Schwarz

et al., 2006) and likely ecosystem services earn-

ings of EUR111.8 million per year (see above).

Clearly, floodplain restoration is a cost-effective

approach that can be expanded across the

Danube basin. Major factors affecting the

implementation of restoration potential are

weak political and governmental commitment

and unbalanced allocation of financial resources

to infrastructure measures.

The projects described here were only partly

designed to address climate change impacts in

the region. High confidence climate change scen-

arios that would enable managers to adopt

specific countermeasures are not available for

the Danube River basin. An analysis of historical

extremes and regional climate projections, such

as those presented in the recent IPCC Technical

Paper on Climate Change and Water (Bates

et al., 2008), indicates that more frequent and

severe floods are likely. Restoration of floodplains

serves as a ‘no regrets’ form of climate change

adaptation measure by attenuating the impacts

of floods, aiding groundwater recharge that may

maintain water supplies during droughts, and

improving water quality through wetland fil-

tration of pollutants.

5. Conclusions

This assessment of large-scale restoration of

floodplain functions in the lower Danube basin,

partly as a climate change adaptation measure,

showed that the benefits of using soft infrastruc-

ture for multiple purposes outweighed the costs.

Decommissioning underperforming flood pro-

tection dykes and restoring floodplains led to

safer and more effective floodwater retention,

more robust and dependable freshwater ecosys-

tem services, lower infrastructure maintenance

costs and ultimately more sustainable develop-

ment trajectories for these emerging economies.

We contend that these ‘no regrets’ measures

increase resilience of natural systems and local

societies in managing current climate variability

and the likely impacts of further climate

change. Successful restoration of agriculture and

forestry polders have replaced vulnerable mono-

cultures with more diverse and resilient liveli-

hoods based on sustainable ecosystem services,

directly benefiting the tourism, fishing, grazing

and fibre production industries. A number of

lessons are derived from this case study that

may guide adaptation priorities for governments

and aid donors. The development of inter-

national institutions and agreements (e.g. Inter-

national Commission for the Protection of

Danube River – ICPDR, EU Water Framework

Directive) for better water and river management

have been powerful drivers for more sustainable

management of the Danube River. Finally,

increasing awareness of the socio-economic

benefits of floodplain restoration, and the

demonstrated inefficiency of existing flood pro-

tection infrastructure in coping with extreme

climate events, are key factors proven to motivate

policymakers to start integrating climate change



into national and regional development strat-

egies. We hope that these successes achieved to

date will provide the basis for further adaptive

management, particularly as the impacts from

climate change grow in frequency and severity.

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Freshwater management and climate changeadaptation: Experiences from the Great Ruaha Rivercatchment in TanzaniaJAPHET J. KASHAIGILI1,*, KOSSA RAJABU2 and PETRO MASOLWA2

1Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3013, Morogoro, Tanzania2Ruaha Water Programme, World Wide Fund for Nature – Tanzania Programme Office, P.O. Box 307, Iringa, Tanzania

Adaptation to anthropogenic climate change is becoming vital to freshwater ecosystems and resource management, but climateadaptation can be purposeful or unintentional. This paper presents lessons from an assessment of an autonomous adaptation inthe Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania following WWF intervention. The project was designed to address challengesresulting from natural resource use and existing levels of climate variability by changing water resource management. The studyapplied participatory methods and an open-ended questionnaire to collect data. The study found key adaptation benefits,including reduced vulnerability to drought and strengthened local water user associations and other regional institutions. As aresult of the project interventions from 2003 to 2009, rural livelihoods became more profitable and water-sustainable, and locallivelihood strategies were diversified. Regional ecosystems improved as a result of restoring river flows in some rivers, conser-vation of riparian vegetation and halting tree felling for charcoal production. As a result of these changes the communities andecosystems in the Great Ruaha River catchment should be more resilient to emerging climate change impacts, yet the need forfurther physical interventions and institutional reform is identified. The study concludes that strengthening local institutions andcapacity building are fundamental to climate change adaptation and sustainable freshwater management.

Keywords: climate change adaptation; climate vulnerability; freshwater management; Great Ruaha River; institutions;

sustainability

1. Introduction

Freshwater is essential for sustaining both people

and nature, and the consumption of this limited

resource has increased by a factor of 6 since the

beginning of the 20th century, which has

increased water scarcity in many parts of the

world (Obasi, 1997). Now, climate variability

and change is posing another threat to the sus-

tainability of this resource. For example, accord-

ing to Huq et al. (2003), climate change in

sub-Saharan Africa may lead to decreased precipi-

tation in semi-arid to arid parts of Africa.

Adaptation is defined differently among scho-

lars. According to the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) (Bates et al., 2008),

climate change adaptation is defined as:

initiatives and measures to reduce the vulner-

ability of natural and human systems against

actual or expected climate change effects.

Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipat-

ory and reactive, private and public, and auton-

omous and planned.

Bates et al. (2008) define autonomous adap-

tations as:

those that do not constitute a conscious

response to climate stimuli, but result from

changes to meet altered demands, objectives

case study




and expectations which, whilst not deliber-

ately designed to cope with climate change,

may lessen the consequences of that change.

We contend that it is important to learn lessons

from such autonomous adaptations that are wide-

spread in the water sector in order to increase the

effectiveness of planned adaptation measures. As

to water and adaptation, the IPCC states (Kundze-

wicz et al., 2007) ‘adaptation to changing con-

ditions in water availability and demand has

always been at the core of water management’.

Consequently this paper seeks to derive lessons

from autonomous adaptation that has increased

the resilience of a key river catchment and local

communities in Tanzania. Resilience (Bates et al.,

2008) is defined as:

the ability of a social or ecological system to

absorb disturbances while retaining the same

basic structure and ways of functioning, the

capacity for self-organization, and the capacity

to adapt to stress and change.

According to Adger et al. (2005), adaptation

can involve both building adaptive capacity

(thereby increasing the ability of individuals,

groups or organizations to adapt to changes),

and implementing adaptation decisions (i.e.

transforming that capacity into action).

There is increasing international debate

on how best to effectively manage freshwater

and adaptation. First, the debate focuses on

whether poverty reduction or vulnerability

reduction makes for better adaptation (Schipper,

2007). Second, in relation to adaptation across

scales (e.g. Adger et al., 2005), discussion focuses

on identifying scales of action to deliver more

effective adaptation, and how to get actors at

different geopolitical scales to work together

rather than hinder adaptation work. Third,

there is the question of how adaptation measures

can best be integrated into society. For example,

Ross and Dovers (2008) believe that:

the most prominent success factors, barriers

and gaps that affect environmental policy inte-

gration like climate adaptation relate to leader-

ship, long term embedding of environmental

policy integration and implementation

capacity.

Considering that climate change impacts are

already being felt, interventions aimed at redu-

cing negative impacts and risks are required. Irre-

spective of the motivation for adaptation, either

purposeful or unintentional adaptations can gen-

erate short-term or long-term benefits (i.e. Adger

et al., 2005). This paper presents findings from

an assessment of the adaptation lessons from a

WWF project in the Great Ruaha River catchment

(GRRC) in Tanzania that was prepared as one of

six case studies for a larger review (Pittock,

2009). The research looked at autonomous adap-

tation in the freshwater sector to derive lessons on

what motivated the societies to change, which

factors led to more successful adaptation, and

how the interventions may best be sustained.

The findings are intended to contribute to the

global debate on how better to adapt to climate

change.

2. Great Ruaha River catchment and theWWF-Ruaha Water Programme

The Great Ruaha River (GRRC) is a large sub-

catchment of the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania.

The Rufiji is the largest basin out of the nine

hydrological basins in Tanzania, with the drai-

nage area of about 177,000 km2. The GRRC

(Figure 1) covers an area of about 83,970 km2

and is home to about 6 million people. It

contains the Usangu Plains, which lie at an

average elevation of 1,100 m above mean sea

level (amsl), located between longitudes 338000E

and 358000E, and latitudes 88000S and 98300S.

The plains are surrounded by the Poroto, Kipen-

gere and Chunya mountains (Figure 1), with

elevations up to 3000 m amsl. The Usangu

wetlands (Western Utengule and Eastern Ihefu

wetlands), Selous Game Reserve and Ruaha

National Park depend on the waters of the Great

Ruaha River (GRR). These ecosystems are of

both national and international importance as

they are sources of foreign exchange generated

through tourism and sport hunting while some

Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania 221


of the swamps are designated under the Ramsar

Convention on Wetlands. Furthermore, the

country’s major hydropower plants of Mtera

and Kidatu use the waters of the GRR and

account for about 48.5% (280 MW out of

577 MW) of installed generation capacity con-

nected to the national power grid. In the GRR

headwaters, 46% of the 1.5 million residents

live in poverty. The average income is around

USD0.80 per day and it is an economy largely

based on agriculture.

Since the early 1990s the GRR has experienced

decreased flows. The GRR is normally perennial,

and the successive cessations of dry season flows

since 1993 is unprecedented. Since 1957 rainfall

in the lowland portion of the catchment has

declined, a trend many fear will be exacerbated

by climate change. Furthermore, there has been

a change in land use with larger areas converted

to agriculture (SMUWC, 2001; Kashaigili et al.,

2006). Both the human population and the

area under irrigation have expanded, increasing

the demand for water as well as conflicts among

competing users. Many people in the catchment

are subsistence farmers depending on rain-

fed agriculture. The construction of intakes and

diversions to abstract water from rivers for sup-

plementary irrigation in order to minimize the

risk of crop failure has resulted in the GRR and

its tributaries being severely drained.

FIGURE 1 Map showing drainage patterns, Usangu wetlands, Ruaha National Park and the Usangu Plains within the

GRRC in the Rufiji Basin

222 Kashaigili, Rajabu and Masolwa


There are many concerns about the GRR drying

up (Hirji and Davis, 2009). Such concerns insti-

gated Prime Minister Sumaye’s announcement

in 2001 ‘that the government of Tanzania is com-

mitting its support for a programme to ensure

that the GRR has a year round flow by 2010’.

The local concerns mainly arise from the fact

that the human population and their livestock

depend on land, water and other natural

resources available in the catchment to sustain

their livelihoods. Their long-term survival

depends largely on the sustainable management

of the resources of the catchment and on the

maintenance of minimum flows in the rivers

during the dry season (Kashaigili et al., 2005).

The Rufiji Basin Water Office (a government

agency responsible for water resources planning,

conservation of water sources and water-based

ecosystems, protection of water resources, grant-

ing of water rights and conflict resolution) is

handling the new challenges of regulating

demand and supply to efficiently allocate a valu-

able and scarce water resource among competing

users. Concerns at the national level arise from

the fact that the bulk of the water required for

hydroelectric power (HEP) generation at Mtera

and Kidatu hydropower plants has its source in

the GRRC. Dwindling water supplies from the

GRRC, especially during the dry season, nega-

tively affect the existence of important ecosys-

tems such as the Western (Utengule) wetland,

Eastern (Ihefu) wetland and Ruaha National

Park. Another national concern is food security.

Irrigated paddy in Usangu is estimated to

produce about 105,000 tons of paddy (equivalent

to 66,000 tons of rice) per annum, about 14% of

the total annual rice production in Tanzania

(Kadigi et al., 2004). In monetary terms annual

income from the rice crop is USD15.9 million,

which is currently supporting about 30,000 agrar-

ian families in Usangu (Kadigi et al., 2004), with

an average income per family of USD530.95 per

annum. Despite all that, the challenge remains

of how to ensure equitable allocation of available

water resources and improve water productivity,

while strengthening institutions at the grass-

roots level and providing alternative livelihoods,

as well as coping with the pressures of a changing

climate.

By considering the above challenges and con-

cerns, the WWF Tanzania Programme Office1

commenced a project in 2003 to promote inte-

grated and sustainable water use and manage-

ment of natural resources in order to maintain

ecosystem functioning for improved livelihoods.

The overall objective of the project is that by

2010 the people of the GRRC have the capacity

to plan, manage and utilize their water and

related natural resources sustainably and, in so

doing, alleviate poverty and improve livelihoods.

Achievement of sustainable water resource man-

agement in the GRRC is to be achieved through

integrated capacity building and action at

national, catchment, district and community

levels by 2010. It was envisaged that the overall

and specific objectives of the project would be

achieved by ensuring that:

B An Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM)

plan was completed and operational in the

GRRC.

B Local governments and communities effec-

tively participated in water resource manage-

ment in line with the national 2002 Water

Policy.

B Water resources management issues relating

to the decreased flows of the GRR were

addressed and alternative economic activities

that contribute to improved livelihoods were

implemented.

B Local governments and communities were

aware of and understood water resource man-

agement and related environmental issues in

the GRRC.

A key indicator of progress of this project was

identified as the restoration of perennial natural

flows in the GRR.

3. Methods

This research was commissioned by WWF and

undertaken in late 2008 and early 2009, led by

Kashaigili (2008). The study did not assess progress



against the project’s planned objectives and indi-

cators (above) and instead sought to derive

lessons concerning (unplanned) autonomous

adaptation to climate change. We applied a

largely qualitative analytical framework developed

by Pittock (2009) to assess (1) (unplanned) climate

change adaptation, (2) socio-economic outcomes

and (3) conservation outcomes. The study applied

participatory methods (i.e. focusgroupdiscussions,

direct observation, unstructured interviews) to

elicit relevant information. Focus group discus-

sions were conducted with four Community Con-

servation Banks (COCOBAs) and five Water User

Associations (WUAs) while interviews were con-

ducted with the Rufiji River Basin Office officials,

WUA leaders, District officials and WWF project

implementation staff. Retrospectively, the study

assessed the condition before and after WWF inter-

vention to gain an understanding of the effective-

ness of the freshwater management and other

autonomous adaptation measures and to derive

lessons on factors that helped or hindered their

implementation. The key measures considered in

this project included: the number of established

WUAs and COCOBAs; existence of conflicts; restor-

ation of headwaters and riparian zones; develop-

ment of alternative, more environmental friendly

income-generating activities; training undertaken

on environmental education and entrepreneur-

ship skills; agreements on water scheduling; and

the development of water supply solutions.

4. Results

4.1. Adaptation outcomes

The WWF programme has achieved a number of

climate change adaptation outcomes, although

they were not planned during the design of the

programme. For example, over-dependency on

water to sustain livelihoods has been greatly

reduced as a result of communities being engaged

in fewer water-intensive economic activities.

Likewise, degradation of the catchment has been

reduced by managing the watersheds properly

through reduction of grazing near water sources

and river banks, afforestation, reduction of valley-

bottom (vinyungu) farming and demolition of

houses built near water sources. These interven-

tions were achieved through the establishment

of local WUAs2 and Apex bodies (an organ over-

seeing WUAs’ functions in a watershed) which

set and enforced regulations (bylaws). Through

WWF, eight WUAs out of ten (Table 1) have been

established in eight of the 16 Districts of the

GRRC, and more are in the process of establish-

ment. Moreover, construction of Kangaga Dam

with a capacity of 40,860 m3 at a cost of

USD42,373 has ensured availability of adequate

water for livestock as well as for domestic con-

sumption during the dry season and dry years.

Consequently, people’s vulnerability to the

impacts of drought and low flows in the dry

season has been minimized. However, it is not

easy to quantify the outcomes for the simple

reason that the WWF interventions were not

directly aimed at climate change adaptation. As

such, insufficient indicators were put in place

and monitored in order to quantify the outcomes.

The outcomes are largely based on having well-

organized and trained WUAs, COCOBAs,3

TABLE 1 Water User Associations in the GRRC formed byWWF

Name of Water

User Association

Date established Funding

Mkoji 2001–2003 RBMa

Mswiswi 2005/2006 WWF

Mambi 2008 WWF

Mpolo 2008 WWF

Chimala 2005/2006 WWF

MAMREMAb 2001/2002 SMUWC/

RBWOc

Halali 2004 WWF

Nyando 2004 WWF

Ndembera 2008/2009 WWF

Mtitu 2004/2005 WWF

aEstablished during the River Basin Management Project and alsosupported by RIPARWIN.bMapogoro and Mfumbi Resource Management Association.cEstablished during SMUWC project.



committed communities and supportive village,

ward and district governments.

4.2. Livelihood outcomes

Livelihood strategies have diversified from agri-

culture, brewing and charcoal production into

activities requiring less water, notably retailing,

manufacturing clothing and bee-keeping. Secure

water supplies have supported livestock pro-

duction, and fish farming in water storages has

proved particularly profitable. Training 48 rice

farmers in better production practices has seen

some double their yields. Five Farmer Field

Schools specializing in better rice production

techniques have been established. Farmers are

now better managing the application of water to

their paddy fields, from the business-as-usual

condition of around 30 cm depth to around

15–20 cm now, doubling water efficiency. More-

over, farmers now have an agreed growing calen-

dar indicating a start to the growing season,

facilitating improved irrigation scheduling to

reduce transmission losses and avoid diverting

low flows from the rivers. People who joined the

20 COCOBAs established during the project are

now comparatively financially better off. One

COCOBA member said:

Most of our fellow villagers who are not members

of COCOBAs are becoming poorer and leading a

difficult life as compared to COCOBA members.

However, there is room for more people to join

COCOBAs as the groups have opened doors for

more members. Initially, the group membership

was limited to 30 persons only. However, the

groups can now take as many members as is

economically viable and it does not affect the

efficiency and effectiveness of the group (F.

Mwaitegelasye, 2008).

4.3. Environmental outcomes

The conservation of riparian zones and restor-

ation of springs and river flows are of benefit to

biodiversity. Flows have recommenced into the

Ihefu wetlands, and the number of zero flows

downstream into the National Park has been

reduced from almost 3 months per year to less

than a month. There is increased awareness of

sustainable management and use of water and

other catchment resources largely resulting from

interventions by WWF, including the Sustainable

Management of Usangu Wetlands and its Catch-

ment (SMUWC), a DFID-supported study in

1998–2001, and the Raising Irrigation Pro-

ductivity and Releasing Water for Intersectoral

Needs (RIPARWIN), a river-basin management

research project under the support of DFID-KAR

and IWMI. Presently, people who have benefited

from project interventions are no longer involved

in charcoal making because of their understand-

ing of the bylaws that prohibit indiscriminate

felling of trees to make charcoal, and are under-

taking other activities that do not degrade the

environment. A villager from a community that

has implemented these measures says of adjacent

villages that have not:

They are wasting water and they don’t know

how to conserve water and environment.

They grow crops near the water sources, they

still make charcoal, start bush fires to catch

animals, and there are always conflicts on

water use (Z. Mwakyokola, 2008).

5. Discussion

5.1. Motivations for change

Local communities were keen to implement these

adaptations due to their vulnerability to water

scarcity and pollution and their need to

improve their livelihoods to reduce poverty.

Thus, vulnerability has been a catalyst for

people to adapt, and this agrees with the argu-

ment by Schipper (2007) that we should favour

poverty reduction or vulnerability reduction

first for better adaptation. On the other hand,

direct interventions to reduce physical vulner-

ability (e.g. new water storage) have also aided

adaptation (Adger et al., 2005). Therefore it can



be argued that the two are mutually reinforcing.

For the Tanzanian Government, the project

has attracted resources to implement its water

policy (URT, 2002) in the basin.

5.2. Sustainability and funding

The sustainability of these adaptations, such as

enforcement of water rules, depends on owner-

ship and implementation by the local commu-

nity, which is likely to continue given the

strengthened local institutions and livelihood

benefits derived thus far. This is critical in a devel-

oping country like Tanzania where strong and

more accountable local institutions are essential

to embed sustainable development programmes,

given the limited reach of national institutions.

This case supports the conclusion of Tompkins

and Adger (2004) that community-based man-

agement enhances adaptive capacity by building

networks that are important for coping with

extreme events and by retaining the resilience

of the underpinning ecosystems.

Funding has so far come from WWF and the

EU. There is USD951 million in national and

donor funds held by the Tanzanian Government

for use up to 2011 to support this type of water

sector development nationally. The govern-

ment’s intention to foster this kind of river

basin management through a new water law

and allocation of central funds and fees from

water users to local management institutions

(URT, 2002) is yet to be realized, jeopardizing

the long-term sustainability of these adaptations.

Furthermore, the Tanzanian Government has a

policy of expanding irrigation (URT, 1997),

which if implemented poorly in the GRRC, may

further reduce river flows.

A further sustainability question is whether the

adaptations implemented are sufficient to restore

perennial flows to the GRR to achieve one of the

programme’s main objectives, and whether

these measures may prove insufficient with

further climate change. WWF and colleagues

have recently completed a review of environ-

mental flow assessment for the GRR to determine

the water required to meet particular environ-

mental and social objectives, and options for

achieving them. This concluded that the better

catchment management measures applied,

while highly beneficial in increasing river flows

and reducing vulnerability of local communities

to water scarcity in the upper basin, would not

exceed the threshold needed to pass dry season

water flow through the Usangu wetland and

further downstream. Consequently the diversion

of an upstream tributary, the Ndembera River,

around the wetland has been proposed to

provide a base flow to the GRR’s main stream

(Mwaruvanda et al., 2009). Although the

additional water supply that can be generated

by the catchment restoration appears limited, it

has provided benefits and bought time to con-

sider further adaptation measures, such as the

proposed diversion.

5.3. Barriers and lessons

Work with government agencies locally was ham-

pered as newly trained officers took up better

employment offers elsewhere. Lessons for suc-

cessful adaptation from the programme are: that

seed funding is essential for the transition;

improvements in livelihoods motivates change;

establishing and strengthening local institutions

and making links to basin and national insti-

tutions make this change more sustainable,

while meeting the criteria of Adger et al. (2005)

(effective, efficient, equitable and legitimate).

However, while good progress has been made

locally using foreign funds and the National

Water Policy currently provides legitimacy, the

lack of implementation of national financing

measures for the WUAs is neither effective

nor efficient. Further, there is no evidence of

the processes of the UN Framework Convention

on Climate Change influencing governmental

actions in the GRRC.

As outlined above, the measures being

employed by WWF to date are not exhaustive

and new actions will have to be considered. For

example, addressing water scarcity in the



catchment requires the understanding of the

whole water balance and not just blue water,

which has been the focus of management inter-

ventions to date. Furthermore, a study is

suggested on how to improve water productivity,

which is one of the key strategies for improving

rain-fed irrigation and at the same time reducing

the downstream impacts.

5.4. Potential to scale up

The adaptation measures implemented so far

were technologically simple and decentralized,

and applied existing knowledge, supporting

Dovers’ (2009) proposition that societies can

make great progress towards climate adaptation

by implementing what is already known. This

approach to adaptive catchment management

could be scaled up, given its modest cost and

the national and donor funds available in Tanza-

nia and other developing countries. For instance,

the measures have been applied in only half of the

16 districts in the GRRC thus far.

6. Conclusions

The inexpensive, grass-roots climate adaptation

measures applied in the Great Ruaha demonstrate

how incremental action to restore ecosystem

functions and better manage natural resources

can increase resilience to water scarcity. It

highlights the importance of strengthening

the capacities of local people and organizations

to improve governance, diversify the local

economy and institute adaptive management

practices. This case also emphasizes the need for

governments to support local organizations

with appropriate mandates and financial inde-

pendence to undertake ongoing adaptive man-

agement. It can therefore be concluded that

strengthening local institutions and building

capacity among others are fundamental to adap-

tation and sustainable freshwater management

and should be the focus for future policy

and interventions. The study also contributes to

an international debate on how to manage

freshwater and adaptation. Thus, as for Schipper

(2007), climate change adaptation will be facili-

tated by a focus on sustainable development

and vulnerability reduction, with an explicit inte-

grated approach that accounts for factors such as

poverty reduction and rural livelihoods.

Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful to financial support

from WWF-TPO which made this study possible.

Special thanks to the communities under the

Ruaha Water Programme for their cooperation.

We are also very grateful to Jamie Pittock, John

Matthews and anonymous reviewers for com-

ments. This version remains exclusively our

responsibility.

Dr Kossa Rajabu died after this paper was

drafted. We acknowledge his considerable contri-

bution and extend our sympathies to his family.

We can ill afford to lose such talented experts.

Notes

1. The project received financial support from WWF-

UK and the European Union (EU), and worked in

collaboration with the Tanzanian Ministry of

Water and Irrigation (through the Rufiji Basin

Water Office) and the District Councils of Mbarali,

Mbeya Rural, Chunya, Mufindi, Makete, Njombe,

Kilolo and Iringa Rural District.

2. The cost of forming one WUA is around

TSH30,000,000 (�USD24,000). One WUA on

average is composed of 20 villages. WUAs were

trained on water policy and laws, water manage-

ment, integrated water resources management con-

cepts, conflicts management, group management,

data management, banking, leadership, environ-

mental education and preparation of management

plans.

3. The costs of forming one COCOBA is around

TSH12,500,000 (USD10,000).

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Adapting to climate change in the Godavari River basinof India by restoring traditional water storage systemsBIKSHAM GUJJA1, SRABAN DALAI2, HAJARA SHAIK3 and VINOD GOUD4,*

1Senior Policy Advisor, Global Freshwater Programme, WWF-International, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland2GIS Coordinator, ICRISAT-WWF International Project, Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India3Sociologist and independent consultant, Gland, Switzerland4Project Coordinator, ICRISAT-WWF International Project, Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India

Food, climate and water crises are interrelated and interdependent. Climate change is projected to significantly alter rainfallpatterns, with implications for the annual runoff for the Godavari River basin of the Indian subcontinent. Agriculture, especiallyrain-fed agriculture, will be particularly affected, due to changes such as periodicity and intensity of rainfall. This paper describesfield interventions in 2005–2007 designed to restore traditional water management systems (in the form of water tanks; that is,wetlands embedded in a semi-arid region), with the aim of mitigating the effects of increased climate variability and the frequencyof weather extremes. Our findings suggest that traditional water management methods can be both socially and economicallyeffective in coping with variability in precipitation patterns, decentralizing management institutions, improving crop productivityand increasing groundwater recharge. This approach is preferable to large projects for increasing water storage capacity orexpanding areas under irrigation, which are expensive, and can displace people and degrade ecosystems.

Keywords: climate change; groundwater; restoration; tanks; water productivity

1. Introduction

India’s water needs are expected to grow dramati-

cally by 2050, with demand increasing beyond

current supplies. According to current estimates,

even if agricultural demand per capita does not

increase, domestic demand will increase by 45%

between 2000 and 2050, and total demand will

increase by 65% (NCIWRD, 1999; Planning Com-

mission, 2007). Therefore India needs to secure

additional water supplies if it is to avoid a major

water crisis.

India’s national water management policies

promote integrated water management at the

river-basin level (Palanisami, 2006). However,

implementing such policies is often challenging

or impractical. In India, state governments

control the development and management of

water infrastructure, but many river basins are

shared by more than one state. A further chal-

lenge is that water allocations often exceed the

total mean flow, leading to conflicts between sta-

keholders (Gujja et al., 2006a,b,c).

Climate change is likely to add further com-

plexity to the challenge of water management

in India. The impact of climate change at the

basin level is difficult to predict, but there are

some general predictions about the impact on

water resources (Gosain et al., 2006). Increasing

temperatures could cause significant shifts in

the variability of river runoff, and a 18C increase

in mean annual temperature could result in a

15% reduction in inflows (Cai and Whetton,

2001; Cai and Cowan, 2008).

Efforts to manage water rarely focus on improv-

ing the livelihoods of poor people or conserving

case study




freshwater ecosystems. India is investing heavily

in water infrastructure to improve supplies, but

often grossly overestimates water availability

and fails to allow for increased variability due to

climate change. According to several estimates,

India will need another 120 major storage dams

by 2050 to meet projected water needs

(NCIWRD, 1999; CWC, 2005–2006). Building

additional dams will create conflict, displace

people, degrade ecosystems and increase the

cost of water delivery.

Although methods such as improving effi-

ciency in water use will play an important role

in resolving India’s water problems, it is clear

that it will also be necessary to increase water

availability. The challenge is to devise practical

methods that improve water availability and

meet current demands, while providing enough

water to meet future demand in the context of

uncertainty due to climate change. This paper

looks at the possibility of improving water avail-

ability in the Maner sub-basin by restoring tra-

ditional water tanks (i.e. wetlands embedded in

a semi-arid region), instead of developing new

infrastructure. The sub-basin is a more practical

focus for study than a basin, because all of the sub-

basin’s catchment areas are in the same state:

Andhra Pradesh.

2. Traditional water tanks in the Manersub-basin

People in Andhra Pradesh state have been build-

ing water tanks, known as cheruvu (big tank) or

kunta (small tank), for over 2,000 years, and

there are about 74,000 water tanks across the

state, according to the World Bank (2007). Some

of the water tanks are still functioning more

than 1,200 years after they were built. Water

tanks are multifunctional, and their uses vary

with climate and rainfall. Until recently, tanks

were the main source of drinking water for

humans and livestock. They are also a source of

fish (and thus host a wide range of birds), have

a ceremonial role for local communities, are the

main source of groundwater recharge and have

traditionally been used to manage scarce and

erratic rainfall.

The Maner sub-basin is located in the semi-arid

mid-Godavari River basin (Figure 1), where most

rain falls during the monsoon (June–October).

Mean annual rainfall normally varies from 629 to

1,391 mm, although long-term data show years

of very low rainfall (e.g. 517 mm in 1920 and

598 mm in 1972) and of very high rainfall (e.g.

1,391 mm in 1983) (Mitchell and Jones, 2005).

For agriculture, the total annual rainfall is less

important than its timing and intensity, both

of which are likely to be seriously affected by

climate change (Bates et al., 2008). In the Maner

sub-basin, 38% of the population work in agricul-

ture as farmers and a further 40% are employed in

agricultural services (such as field labour). About

35% of the sub-basin is used for agriculture;

the net cultivated area is 455,000 ha, and

127,000 ha is forest (Figure 2). The sub-basin

also includes 1,761 towns and large villages,

including two district headquarters: Warangal

and Karimnagar (Directorate of Economics and

Statistics, 2003, 2005, 2006–2007).

Irrigation is central to agriculture in the Maner

sub-basin, traditionally through the use of water

tanks. About 44% of the total cultivated area is irri-

gated, of which 22% (74,000 ha) is irrigated using

surface water; 39,000 ha of this area is irrigated

using water tanks, and the remainder is irrigated

by canals and groundwater (which is recharged

through water tanks). The Maner sub-basin is

divided into 24 micro-basins, all of which have

water tanks, and most of which use tank irrigation.

It is difficult to estimate the exact amount of

water used in the Maner sub-basin, but the agri-

cultural water use has been estimated based on

production of major irrigated crops (Table 1).

The total water used for the four major crops is

1,621 million m3. The major crops (rice, maize,

chillies and cotton) account for more than 85%

of the value, production and cultivated area.

Rice is the main irrigated crop; it occupies more

than 46% of the total irrigated area and accounts

for more than 75% of total water used in the

Maner sub-basin. The total water use in irrigated

agriculture is around 2,000 million m3, which

230 Gujja et al.


represents about 17% of the total rainwater in the

basin.

In the Maner sub-basin, it will be a major chal-

lenge to adapt to the effects of climate change

and improve land productivity using local water

resources without degrading the ecosystem.

3. Restoration of water storage tanks

Despite their importance, water tanks are declin-

ing in number, size and capacity (Vaidyanathan,

2001). This decline is partly due to changes in

the way that water tanks are managed, which

FIGURE 1 Maner sub-basin

Source: WWF.

FIGURE 2 Percentage of land use in Maner sub-basin districts and Andhra Pradesh

Restoring traditional water storage systems in the Godavari River basin, India 231


reflects a change from traditional governance

structures to governance by state government

departments. In the past, particularly before the

Land Reforms Act (Chandra Pal, 1989), poor

people and low-caste communities had little or

no land to irrigate, but they were responsible for

managing the water and cleaning the water

tanks and canals. Clearly it is not desirable or

necessary to recreate these past social conditions

for water tank maintenance. However, it is

important to acknowledge that water tank restor-

ation and management is complex, and must

adapt traditional understanding of the ecosystem

to the socio-political situation of present-day

India. Previous programmes to restore water

tanks have been unsystematic, and have con-

sidered neither the ecosystem nor local

hydrology.

Today, the Maner sub-basin has only 6,234

water tanks, which cover about 5% of the catch-

ment area (Figure 3). On average, there is one

tank for every 600 people. Most water tanks

are small (1–10 ha), although some are large

(.100 ha), and there are also the new lower and

upper Maner reservoirs which span over

6,040 ha. Each hectare of water tank supports

about 5.6 ha of irrigated area (including areas irri-

gated using groundwater).

The primary data sources used in the research

reported here to delineate the watershed, sub-

watersheds and tanks, and to assess the water

TABLE 1 Water consumption by major crops

Crop Litres of water used

per kg produced

Rice 2,656

Maize 450

Cotton 5,300

Chillies 5,300

Source: Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2004.

FIGURE 3 Maner catchment showing micro-basins and major water tanks

Source: WWF.

232 Gujja et al.


storage potential of the tanks, were Survey of India

topographic maps at a scale of 1:50,000, multi-

spectral band Landsat thematic mapper satellite

imagery, and digital elevation model. The geo-

graphic information system (GIS) and mapping

software used in this study were ArcGIS 9.x, and

handheld global positioning system for field

sample collection and verification.

The current storage capacity of many of the

water tanks in the Maner sub-basin is far less

than their potential storage capacity, because

many are filled with silt. De-silting the tanks

would greatly increase the overall storage

capacity, providing a more secure water resource

to meet current and future water demands.

If all tanks were de-silted and renovated, would

there be sufficient water through rainfall, particu-

larly during drought years, to fill the renovated

tanks? Average annual rainfall over the basin in

2001–2005 was about 973 mm. This amounts to

about 12 billion m3 of rainwater falling over

the basin. If all the water tanks in the Maner

sub-basin were de-silted to 3 m, they could

store 1.764 billion m3 of rainwater. It could be

increased further to 2.940 billion m3 if the tanks

were dug to an average of 5 m. Thus, the water

storage of the tanks could be one-fourth to one-

sixth of the average rainfall over the basin. In

years when rainfall is too low to fill all the

tanks, groundwater recharge from de-silted

tanks could meet the requirements during that

year. Thus, the Maner sub-basin would have

enough water to fill the de-silted water tanks

without greatly altering river flow.

WWF supported a pilot project to renovate tra-

ditional water tanks in the Maner sub-basin. The

project was implemented by the Warangal-based

nongovernmental organization Modern Archi-

tects for Rural India (MARI) from March 2005 to

February 2007 (WWF-ICRISAT, 2007). The Sali

Vagu micro-basin was the area selected for water

tank restoration (Figure 4). About 20% of the

total irrigated area in the Sali Vagu micro-basin

is irrigated from water tanks and the remainder

is irrigated with groundwater (which depends

on the water tanks for recharge). Twelve tra-

ditional water tanks were selected for de-silting

through community participation methods. The

main objectives of this project were to:

B initiate the field projects to increase the water

storage capacity of selected water tanks by

de-silting;

B demonstrate that improved water manage-

ment can increase the productivity of irri-

gated crops and reduce the dependency on

chemical fertilizers;

B examine whether restoring traditional water

tanks is financially viable compared to major

water infrastructure projects on the same

river basin;

B identify policy changes needed to implement

approaches at the watershed level rather than

undertaking major water infrastructure

projects;

B develop policy tools for promoting large-scale

water tank restoration as an effective, ecologi-

cally sound method of improving water

management without compromising food

security and economic prosperity.

De-silting is the most important aspect of water-

tank restoration: it increases the capacity of the

water tank, provides an organic fertilizer (in the

form of silt), and can provide a source of income

for local people employed to apply the silt to the

fields. The International Crops Research Institute

for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) analysed the

sediment and found that it contained 60–70%

clay, and was rich in organic carbon and minerals.

The project removed 73,000 tonnes of sedi-

ment from the 12 water tanks covering an area

of 11 ha and serving 42,000 people, with direct

costs of INR1.1 million (USD28,000) and indirect

costs (e.g. management) of about INR15

(USD0.30) per tonne.

Some benefits of the project were:

B crop productivity increased by INR5.8 million

per year; the crops with the highest pro-

ductivity increases were groundnut and

maize;

B farmers irrigated about 900 ha more land after

the de-silting project;



FIGURE 4 Sali Vagu micro-basin

Source: WWF.

234 Gujja et al.


B annual productivity of the sub-catchment

increased by INR1.0 million, partly due to

the project;

B groundwater use decreased; partly because

the water tanks provided sufficient water for

irrigation without using groundwater as a

supplement;

B water pump use decreased, saving electricity;

B rural employment improved due to increased

agricultural activity; a survey quantified

this improvement as up to INR500,000

(USD12,000) in additional wages in these tanks;

B net profit from fishing increased by

INR160,000 (USD3,000) per year; this

increase is expected to last for at least 5 years;

B habitat for birds improved, and other ecologi-

cal benefits were observed;

B indirect benefits that could be partly attribu-

ted to de-silting included reduced numbers

of crop pests, decreased use of inorganic

fertilizers, reduced migration to cities, and

improved fodder availability, resulting in

increased milk production.

The financial benefits of the project not only

recovered the project costs but created some

profit. Extensive surveys and observations also

demonstrated that the project had both ecologi-

cal and agricultural benefits. The project used

incentives to mobilize communities to partici-

pate, and the result was a water tank restoration

project based on community effort and available

resources. Engaging the community ensured

that they reaped direct benefits. For example:

B silt was applied to the fields of 884 farmers,

covering an area of 602 ha; most of these

farmers reported increased land productivity

and reduced costs;

B increased area and depth of the water in the

tanks facilitated improved fish production;

B sixteen mounds (islands) of soil were created

in the water tank area to provide safe habitat

for birds; establishing such mounds also

reduced the cost of de-silting;

B the de-silting also provided direct employ-

ment to the rural community, particularly

during the seasons when less agriculture

work was available.

This pilot project has clearly indicated that the

de-silting of tanks on a large scale could result in:

B tangible benefits for crop cultivation and

fisheries;

B indirect benefits, such as increased

B fodder production

B organic manure production

B use of silt to improve soil in agricultural

fields

B domestic water;

B new employment, which decreases migration

to cities;

B significant resolution of water conflicts;

B reduced need for large-scale water infrastruc-

ture projects;

B large-scale restoration of wetlands.

4. Planning for climate change in the Manersub-basin

Climate change is likely to affect water avail-

ability, agricultural productivity, and terrestrial

and aquatic ecosystems in the Maner sub-basin.

However, specific changes are difficult to

predict, so water management strategies must

consider worst-case scenarios and design adaptive

solutions accordingly (Milly et al., 2008).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change projections (IPCC, 2007) for freshwater

resources suggest that climate change will cause:

B variations in periodicity and intensity of

rainfall;

B decreases in water resources in some areas

and increases in others;

B longer periods of dry season flows in rivers.

Quantitative projections of changes in precipi-

tation, river flows and water levels at the river-

basin scale are uncertain, but overall, even in

areas where precipitation is projected to increase,

water resources are likely to become more scarce.



More research and data analysis are required to

make ‘concrete’ projections, but existing infor-

mation shows that:

B climate change will alter rainfall, soil moist-

ure and river flows in ways that are detrimen-

tal to agriculture, with changing rainfall

patterns disturbing cropping patterns;

B global or continental projections of climate

change-induced variability are possible, but

precise projections at the basin, sub-basin, or

watershed levels will take longer to generate,

or may prove impossible to generate with

high confidence; however, these smaller-

scale areas are where prevention and adap-

tation initiatives must take place;

B estimates and suggestions based on the avail-

able historical data for various regions, com-

bined with more local and long-term data,

can offer some direction when planning and

initiating interventions;

B there are no high-confidence, India-specific

projections of how climate change will affect

water resources, agricultural productivity,

floods and water infrastructure in coming

decades.

Lack of data and high-confidence projections

makes planning difficult for adaptation and eco-

nomic development initiatives, especially with

regard to changing precipitation patterns.

Indian peninsular rivers do not receive inflows

from snow melt and depend entirely on rainfall

which, as previously discussed, is highly variable.

Annual runoff comes from the few days of

intensive rainfall per year. In the Godavari River

basin, the river is dry most years between Decem-

ber and July, with 85% of the discharge occurring

between July and October. The smaller the river

basin, the shorter and more intense the surface

flows. For the Maner sub-basin, downscaled

climate projections indicate that annual runoff

may shift from –7.6% to þ59.9% in coming

decades, with a cross-model average of þ24%

(P.C.D. Milly, pers. commun., February 2008).

Even the increased flow in the Maner sub-basin

may not reduce water shortages or water conflicts,

because the rain may fall in a very short period.

Unless proper adaptive measures are in place,

even increased precipitation and the associated

increased runoff, if any, may not actually make

more water available. To adapt to climate

change, many options need to be explored.

Simply increasing large-scale storage through

big infrastructure projects may not resolve the

water conflicts.

There are already large variations in the Maner

sub-basin flow from year to year (CWC, 2003–

2004; Figure 5). Interestingly, the maximum

annual flow (which occurred in 1983) was 16.5

times the minimum annual flow (which occurred

in 1985), while the rainfall for those years varied

by a factor of 2. Although there is a direct relation

between precipitation and river runoff, often the

intensity and time of rainfall determines river

flow. For example, in 1983, the average rainfall

was 1,391 mm, the total rainfall over the basin

was about 18.2 billion m3 and the outflow was

6.2 billion m3, suggesting that river runoff was

about 34% of total rainfall. This is comparable

FIGURE 5 Variation in annual discharge and rainfall over the Maner sub-basin

236 Gujja et al.


to the theoretical calculation of 40% for an

average catchment (Shanmugham and Kanaga-

valli, 2005). However, when rainfall is below

average, the river flow drastically reduces. In

1985, average rainfall was 680 mm, total rainfall

over the basin was about 7.90 billion m3, and

the outflow was 0.38 billion m3, suggesting that

river runoff was just 5% of the total rainfall – far

less than the 14% expected from theoretical cal-

culations. This clearly indicates that, at sub-basin

level, changes in rainfall due to climate change

are likely to result in even more drastic fluctu-

ations in river runoff.

Based on these actual observations and on long-

term data analysis, the following observations

can be made about the relationship between

rainfall and Maner sub-basin discharges:

B when rainfall is between 900 mm and

1,000 mm, the runoff is around 15% of the

rain; in contrast, at 600 mm, the runoff is

less than 5% of rainfall;

B high rainfall (about 1,300 mm) could result

in runoff of more than 34%;

B if rainfall is above 1,000 mm for two consecu-

tive years, the third year’s runoff will be

proportionally higher, possibly due to soil

saturation and reduced evaporation;

B rapid and high rainfall will result in a sudden

increase in runoff, but will not lead to sustain-

able river flows.

The population within the Maner sub-basin is

expected to increase by 45% (to 5.5 million) by

2050, parallelling the projected national increase.

If water consumption increases (NCIWRD, 1999;

Planning Commission, 2007) as estimated in

national level projections (to 735 m3 per capita),

the total water requirement in the Maner sub-basin

would be around 4,000 million m3 – almost

double current estimated water use. While this pre-

diction of demand is on the high side, at least

3,500 million m3 of water will be required, includ-

ing 2,000 million m3 for agriculture. Given the

economic importance of agriculture in the Maner

sub-basin, initiatives that help farmers secure

water supplies and adapt to climate change will

be essential to protect livelihoods.

5. Discussion

The following questions need to be answered to

facilitate water management at the sub-basin

level:

5.1. Can increased water demand be met bymanaging water at the sub-basin level?

Increased water demand can be met, but only

with some radical changes to the existing infra-

structure of traditional water tanks, open wells

and tube wells. More than 80% of the Maner sub-

basin’s 434,000 ha of agricultural land is irrigated

using groundwater, which relies on water tanks

for recharge, so improving maintenance will be

a critical part of protecting declining reserves.

In terms of agricultural productivity, there is

little scope for increasing the net area of cultiva-

tion, so to increase production it will be necessary

to:

B improve water availability to the irrigated

area;

B improve water productivity;

B change cropping patterns, shifting to higher-

value crops.

Renovating and de-silting water tanks would

greatly increase their capacity. If all of the water

tanks in the Maner sub-basin were de-silted to

3 m, they could store 1,764 million m3; if they

were de-silted to 5 m, they could store 2,940 mil-

lion m3. This additional storage could help

increase the water supply to meet demand.

5.2. Could water tanks help to manage theimpacts of climate change?

When planning for climate change, the most

pressing issue may be the threat of extremely

severe droughts. Water tank restoration provides

an opportunity to recharge groundwater during



high-rainfall years. This water could be used

during times of drought, although droughts

lasting longer than two years would certainly

create severe water shortages. During such

droughts, an existing large storage dam above

the Godavari River basin could be used to fill up

the water tanks, provided the drought does not

span the entire basin and evaporation does not

sap the reservoir. There is clearly a limit to the

amount of water the water tanks could provide

in the face of extreme weather events of long

duration. However, water tank restoration is an

excellent strategy to help manage annual rainfall

fluctuations, to store more water to reduce the

impact of low rainfall, and to reduce the risks of

drought and speed recovery.

5.3. What other options are available forimproving agricultural productivity?

Irrigation improves productivity, but high pro-

ductivity could be achieved using much less

water, such as using methods like ‘system of rice

intensification’ (SRI) (Gujja et al., 2007). WWF

is working with farmers to implement this

method. Results indicate that it is possible to

increase productivity from 2.7 tonnes per ha to

3.5–5 tonnes per ha without increasing the irri-

gated area or water supply. To achieve such

results, new approaches and investments in train-

ing are needed. An added advantage of the SRI

method is that it could reduce methane output

from the rice fields by 50% compared to conven-

tional cultivation through flooded irrigation.

5.4. Is it possible to meet increased waterdemand while improving terrestrial andaquatic ecosystem health?

Being wetlands, water tanks provide significant

habitat for wildlife. De-silting will make water

tanks a more productive ecosystem, improving

fish habitat (and commercial fish production)

and attracting migratory birds, without signifi-

cantly reducing downstream environmental

flows.

5.5. What would be the costs of meetingincreased water demand locally?

All initiatives for improving water supplies must

be affordable and cost-effective. The cost of

removing silt from water tanks is around INR15

per cubic metre, giving a cost of INR25.5 billion

(USD635 million) for 1,700 million m3. The

de-silting process would need to continue for

at least 5 years. A strategic approach towards

improving the traditional water systems could

avoid large-scale water projects (Gujja et al.,

2006c) and also provide direct employment to

rural people.

6. Conclusions

This paper has argued that renovating traditional

water tanks would be a cost-effective, environ-

mentally friendly and socially equitable method

of responding to the existing water crisis, adapt-

ing to climate change and improving wetland

ecosystems in rural India. There are 208,000

village water tanks across India (Vaidyanathan,

2001), meaning that this project could be scaled

up to a national level. In the Maner sub-basin,

which this paper has examined in detail, water

tanks support more than 80% of local water

needs and have the potential to store more

water and efficiently recharge groundwater.

Groundwater resources are likely to increase in

importance, because they can be a tool to

combat the predicted increased frequency and

severity of droughts due to climate change.

Although water tanks are currently used across

the Maner sub-basin, they have become degraded

and are underused.

We suggest that the water demands of the

increasing population can be met by managing

water at the sub-basin level. By investing around

USD100 per capita (USD550 million for the

Maner sub-basin), the water crisis could be sub-

stantially resolved while simultaneously creating

a vibrant rural economy and functional wetlands.

If the sediment from de-silting is used as a fer-

tilizer, investments could be recovered through

238 Gujja et al.


increased crop production. Intensification methods

such as SRI could help to meet future cereal

requirement by changing farm practices and

using groundwater resources more effectively,

which might even contribute to the mitigation

of future climate change. Overall, the restoration

of water tanks in the Godavari River basin pre-

sents a unique opportunity to improve water

resources while simultaneously improving the

local economy and ecosystems.

Acknowledgements

We thank Dr P. C. D. Milly for providing the data

on variability of river runoff with climate change

in India. We also thank MARI for providing the

data on its water tank restoration project in Sali

Vagu, funded by the WWF-ICRISAT project.

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Freshwater management and climate changeadaptation: Experiences from the central Yangtzein ChinaXIUBO YU1, LUGUANG JIANG1,*, LIFENG LI2, JINXIN WANG3, LIMIN WANG4,GANG LEI4 and JAMIE PITTOCK5

1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road,

Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China2WWF International, Avenue du Mont-Blanc 27, 1196 Gland, Switzerland3School of Urban and Environmental Science, Xuzhou Normal University, 101 Shanghai Road, Xuzhou 221116, China4WWF China Programme Office, Room 1609 Wen Hua Gong, Beijing Working People’s Culture Palace, Beijing 100006, China5Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

The Yangtze is the largest river basin in China and home to over 400 million people. In recent history, and especially during1950s–1970s, extensive lakes and floodplains were reclaimed as polders for agriculture and rural development. Consequently,the flood retention capacity was decreased, many lakes were disconnected from the main channel of the Yangtze by embank-ments and sluice gates, and eutrophication was common. It is anticipated that there will be a greater frequency of extreme floodsand droughts in the basin according to climate change scenarios. WWF commenced a programme in 2002 in partnership withgovernment agencies and local communities to reconnect three lakes (Zhangdu, Hong and Tian-e-zhou) in Hubei Province to theriver by opening sluice gates seasonally and improving lake management. The resilience of the lake environment to climatechange and the livelihoods of local people were enhanced. The measures assessed here highlight: (a) the need for adaptationprogrammes to concurrently improve livelihoods and reduce exposure to physical risks; (b) the need to build the capacity ofpeople and institutions; and (c) the value of decentralized adaptation as compared with new infrastructure investments.

Keywords: China; climate adaptation; climate change; freshwater management; Yangtze River

1. Introduction

The Yangtze River is the longest river in China

and Asia and the third longest in the world.

Running 6,300 km from the Tibetan Plateau to

the East China Sea, the river system drains an

area of 1,800,000 km2 in 19 provinces of China,

and over 400 million people live in the basin

(Figure 1). Its average annual runoff is about

996 billion m3 (BCM), accounting for about

36.5% of China’s freshwater resource. The

Yangtze River Basin accounts for 40% of China’s

gross domestic product (Yang et al., 2009).

The Yangtze River supports diverse flora and

fauna that are well adapted to constantly chan-

ging water levels and flow; it has some of the

richest biodiversity in Asia with over 340 species

of fish alone. Consequently, WWF designated

the basin as a Global 200 site and committed to

conserve it from the mountain to the sea (WWF,

2007).

Until late last century, the river and its lakes

formed a complex wetland network fulfilling

important ecosystem functions such as serving

as the spawning and feeding grounds for fish

and retaining summer floodwaters. However,

case study




dam and dyke construction in Hubei Province,

which took place on an especially large scale in

the 1950s–1970s, has cut off 1,066 lakes covering

over 2,000 km2 from the Yangtze main stem.

Most of the lake shore area was converted to

polders, where agriculture was developed.

Altogether, the total wetlands area was reduced

by 80% and flood water retention capacity

declined by 75%, or 2.8 billion m3.

The fragmentation of the river–lake wetlands

complex caused the interruption of hydrological,

ecological and geochemical processes. Four major

floods between 1991 and 1998 resulted in thou-

sands of deaths and billions of dollars of direct

economic losses. The lack of hydrological con-

nection between lakes and the Yangtze River

blocked the seasonal migration of fish and fresh-

water cetaceans and reduced the purification

functions of wetlands and lakes. Disconnected

lakes have become highly polluted from agricul-

tural return flows, industrial and domestic dis-

charge, and aquaculture. Recently, higher air

and water temperatures associated with global

climate change have exacerbated eutrophication

and further reduced water quality.

Detecting impacts from climate change is stati-

stically challenging, and circulation models of

projected impacts from climate change do not

have sufficient certainty or resolution to deter-

mine specific shifts of eco-hydrological regime

in the central Yangtze region. Nevertheless, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

reports suggest that the frequency and severity of

extreme weather events is increasing and will con-

tinue to increase in coming decades even if mean

annual precipitation may not shift significantly

(Bates et al., 2008). Recent extreme weather

events have had powerful negative effects on the

hydrology of the river–lakes complex over rela-

tively short periods of time (weeks or months),

but these effects have been sufficiently strong to

have altered sensitive species and ecosystems,

as evidenced by floods in the 1990s, droughts in

2006 in Chongqing Municipality and in 2007

in the Dongting and Poyang lake areas, and

the severe snowstorm in the central and lower

Yangtze basin in January 2008.

This paper describes climate change adaptation

initiatives in the central Yangtze River by WWF

and its partners. This assessment was undertaken

FIGURE 1 Location of the Yangtze River basin; the central Yangtze is shown in the dashed frame

242 Yu et al.


using an analytical framework as one of six case

studies fora largerassessmentofautonomousadap-

tation, as reported by Pittock (2009). Here, we

provide an overview of the challenges facing this

portion of the basin, the plan and implementation

process, and the lessons learnt that may be relevant

to other freshwater climate adaptation projects in

the Yangtze, the rest of China, and beyond.

2. Recent climate trends

Air temperature is frequently reported in climate

data for freshwater ecosystems because it often rep-

resents the best quality and most spatially compre-

hensive data. In the Yangtze River basin, the

average annual air temperature ranges from 188Cin the south to 148C in the north, with most

regions experiencing temperatures between

16 and 188C. Mean air temperature in the

Yangtze basin has risen beyond that of the period

1961–1990: in the period 1991–2005 it rose

0.468C and for the period 2001–2005 it rose by

0.718C (Jiang and King, 2004; Jiang et al., 2007).

Precipitation is another important climate vari-

able influencing river inflows. The IPCC suggests

that the timing, amount, form (rain vs. snow)

and intensity of precipitation is shifting in many

regions (Bates et al., 2008). The middle reaches of

the Yangtze are deeply influenced by a monsoon

climate. Precipitation mainly occurs in summer

time. Variation within and between years in the

amount of precipitation is substantial for this

region. Historically, severe flood disasters follow

continuous rain events that span the whole basin.

Between 1960 and 2005, mean annual precipi-

tation for the whole of the Yangtze River basin

was 1126.7 mm. Due to circulation variation

and the impact of topography, temporal and

spatial distribution of rainfall is very uneven,

ranging from a low of 600 mm to a high of

1600 mm in the Poyang Lake (Jiang et al., 2007).

Precipitation patterns are shifting with climate

change over a large region of the basin. Data

from 147 stations during 1960–2005 showed

that the average annual rainfall increased at 93

stations, with a significant increase at 19 stations.

At 54 stations, annual average precipitation

showed a downward trend, with a significant

decrease at eight (Jiang et al., 2007).

3. Projected climate trends

Climate scenarios for the middle reaches of the

Yangtze River basin were simulated based on the

ECHAM5/MPI-OM model by Jiang et al. (2007)

in three IPCC emissions scenarios for the period

of 2001–2050: SRES-A2 (high emissions), SRES-

A1B (moderate emissions) and SRES-B1 (low

emissions). Under all three emissions scenarios,

in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze

River, annual precipitation does not change sig-

nificantly between 2001 and 2050, but the rate

of inter-annual variability increases. This might

cause more extreme climate events in the

Yangtze Basin (Editorial Committee, 2007).

These simulation results should not be taken

as definitive. Other models are likely to produce

different results. Moreover, air temperature

trends are generally treated with much higher

confidence than precipitation or evapotranspira-

tion trends. Yet it is reasonable to conclude that

measures to reduce the impacts of floods and

droughts may substantially aid adaptation to

climate change in the central Yangtze basin.

4. Designing appropriate responses

In our initial assessment, we hypothesized that

the climate resilience of the Yangtze River–lake

complex had been significantly weakened as a

result of the disconnection of the lakes from the

river. In the past these connections were typically

seasonal, with high connectivity during the mon-

soonal floods and low connectivity during the

winter. We postulated that the climate adaptation

capacity of these ecosystems and the livelihoods

of people dependent on their ecosystem services

could be improved by restoring the seasonal eco-

hydrological connections between the lakes and

the Yangtze River.

In 2002 WWF commenced a programme to

reconnect lakes in Hubei province to the

Freshwater management experiences from the central Yangtze in China 243


Yangtze River by opening the embankment sluice

gates to facilitate more sustainable lake manage-

ment. The programme focused on three lakes:

Zhangdu (40 km2), Hong (348 km2) and

Tian-e-zhou (20 km2). However, restoring connec-

tivity alone was insufficient without addressing

the other human-induced threats to ecosystem

health. We also postulated that helping residents

dependent on freshwater ecosystem services

develop more sustainable livelihoods was a

necessary means of ensuring the long-term

climate-adaptive capacity of the ecosystems, par-

ticularly when average income is just USD1.34

per day (Li et al., 2005). In conjunction with

this work, WWF formed partnerships with gov-

ernment agencies and others to explore potential

solutions and to develop a private–public consen-

sus for more sustainable river basin management.

WWF worked to facilitate the adoption of mech-

anisms and processes that contribute to a long-

term and sustainable approach to manage flood

risk and conserve wetlands, improve livelihoods

and stem the massive loss of biodiversity in the

central Yangtze. In the context of climate

change, these types of actions represent auton-

omous adaptation (Bates et al., 2008). The

programme chose several overlapping goals:

promoting community-based and wise use of wet-

lands, re-linking river–lake connections, and inte-

grating the management network of protected

areas of wetlands at both basin and national

levels. To achieve them, the programme employed

four basic approaches: establishing demonstration

projects to develop best practices, direct policy

advocacy, public education initiatives for resource

users and public schools, and building cooperative

networks between policymakers, resource man-

agers and communities. In particular, it is believed

that success would be more likely if demonstration

sites were established with the close collaboration

on-site of local governments and communities.

5. Programme results and outcomes

Unless otherwise stated, the data cited below is

based on unpublished project data from WWF

China’s Wuhan Project Office, project partners

(especially local government) or contained in an

internal programme assessment report (D’Cruz

and Yu, 2006).

Starting from the summer of 2004, the sluice

gates at the Tian-e-zhou, Zhangdu and Hong

lakes have been reopened seasonally, with

removal or modification of related illegal and une-

conomical aquaculture facilities in the lakes. The

reconnection restored the natural seasonal flood-

ing and enhanced the wetlands’ capacity for

water purification and flood retention. In 2005 in

Zhangdu Lake, 285.6� 106 m3 of flood waters

from the Yangtze were safely stored. Further, we

estimate that more than 5.26 million juvenile

fish of 14 species were able to enter the lake as

part of their seasonal migration. Consequently

fishery production in 2005 increased by more

than 17%.

The success of these changes led to the Anhui

Provincial Government opening the sluice

gates at the Baidang lake (40 km2) from 2006.

Altogether, the approximately 448 km2 of wet-

lands now reconnected to the Yangtze River can

store up to 285 million m3 of floodwaters, redu-

cing vulnerability in downstream areas, although

this has not yet been tested in practice. Cessation

of unsustainable aquaculture, better agricultural

practices and reconnection to the Yangtze River

has reduced pollution levels in these lakes and

improved water quality. Pollution levels fell at

Hong Lake from national pollution level IV (fit

for agricultural use only) to II (drinkable) on

China’s five-point scale. Subsequently, the

Anhui Provincial Government has reconnected

a further eight lakes at Anqing covering 350 km2.

5.1. Policy outcomes

Re-linking the disconnected lakes to the main-

stream of the Yangtze has been included in the

work plan of the local governments in Hubei

and Anhui provinces. The practice has also been

recognized and promoted by the central govern-

ment through the Action Guideline of China

Hydro-biological Resources Cultivation and

244 Yu et al.


Protection Initiative issued by the China State

Council on February 14, 2006.

With the support of this programme, WWF

with other partner organizations submitted a

policy recommendation report to the State

Council on promoting integrated river basin

management (IRBM) in China in 2004, and

many of their recommendations have been

accepted and implemented across the country

(CCICED, 2004). The biennial Yangtze Forum

was established in 2005 and has met three times

so far to bring together key government depart-

ments and other stakeholders to share perspec-

tives, develop sustainable economic policies,

integrate data, promote adaptation to climate

change and develop a vision for harmonious

management of the entire river.

5.2. Livelihood outcomes

Opening the sluice gate to re-link the lakes with the

Yangtze River restored the seasonal migration of

fish and introduced wild fish fry from the river,

which resulted in the increased catch. For example,

opening the sluice gate at theZhangdu Lake in June

2005 introduced about 5.26 million fry. Six months

later, the catch increased by 17.33% compared to

that in the previous year. Similarly, the catch

increased by 15% in the Baidang Lake.

The programme helped local farmers to develop

sustainable aquaculture by introducing high econ-

omic value fish species and reducing fish feeding

inputs. As a result, income from aquaculture

increased by 30%. The programme also facilitated

the development of certified eco-fish farming of

412 households in Hong Lake, whose income

from fishery increased by 20–30% on average.

To reduce agricultural pollution, the pro-

gramme also supported bamboo eco-farming

among communities around the Zhangdu Lake.

Bamboo farming has not yet increased the local

farmers’ income directly, because harvesting will

only commence in 2009. However, bamboo

farming is listed in the national Grain for Green

Project (a programme to return steep croplands

to forest); farmers receive compensation from the

national government for five years. The compen-

sation is at least the same or even higher than

their income from previous farming practice.

5.3. Environmental outcomes

The programme has restored and protected a

total of over 400 km2 wetland. At Zhangdu Lake,

60 km2 of lake and marshland were designated

as a nature reserve by the Wuhan Municipal

Government. The Hubei Provincial Government

approved a master plan for wetland conservation

in 2006, which committed to protect an

additional 4,500 km2 of wetlands by December

2010. In the Anhui province, in total 800 km2 of

lake benefited from reconnection to the river. To

strengthen the effectiveness of wetland conserva-

tion efforts in the Yangtze River basin, a Wetland

Conservation Network was established in 2007,

which links managers of 17 nature reserves

(12 recently designated) covering 4,500 km2.

Climate adaptation measures are now being pro-

moted by this network.

The ecological condition of the wetlands

has greatly improved. Taking Hong Lake as an

example, the aquatic vegetation has been

restored and many water bird species have

returned to the lake, including the endangered

oriental white stork that abandoned the lake 11

years before. Water quality in the demonstration

sites improved from national Class IV to II (i.e.

suitable for drinking after simple processing). Fur-

thermore, over 80% of fixed fishing nets were

removed, which improved habitat quality and

connectivity. The provincial government has

pledged to remove all fishing nets within two

years from the site.

Wildlife diversity and the population of many

species have increased. Twelve migratory fish

species returned to the lakes. Hong Lake

supported only 100 herons and egrets when pol-

luted, but after restoration 45,000 wintering

water birds and 20,000 breeding birds returned.

Tian-e-zhou Lake is the site of the managed popu-

lations of the threatened Pere David’s Deer and

the Yangtze finless porpoise, with the latter’s



population growing from 24 to 40. Surprisingly,

the ice fish (Pseudolaubuca engraulis) reappeared

after a 20-year absence.

6. Discussion

6.1. Factors for success

Local communities and municipal and provincial

governments were motivated by better access

to high-quality water, diversified local econom-

ies, increased incomes and an improved environ-

ment. The national government agencies were

also motivated by the need to reduce flood risks,

although the use of the reconnected lakes to

store floodwaters is not supported by all local

governments. The programme appears to have

inspired widespread restoration and protection

of many wetland sites by the relevant govern-

ment authorities. The adoption of the new

wetland policies and regulations by the relevant

government agencies aids the sustainability of

these measures. For example, Hubei Provincial

Government resolved to intensify efforts to

protect Hong Lake by allocating RMB73 million

for its restoration and protection during 2006–

2010. Local governments have issued official

documents to maintain seasonal connections

between the lakes and Yangtze River at several

lakes. The operation of the sluice gates in

Tian-e-zhou oxbow and Zhangdu Lake have

been modified to support re-linkage efforts and

the alternative livelihood activities. Technical

expertise has been engaged to help further diver-

sify the alternative livelihood activities, such as

through enhanced fruit production. The skills

training and the increased income deriving

from the new livelihood measures provided

strong incentives for farmers to participate.

However, these successes have not come easily.

Altering flood control measures is controversial

in any society. Demonstrating that adaptations

can work ‘in the field’ was vital to learn by

doing and to secure external support for wider

application at provincial and national scales.

Attentiveness to the needs of governments and

other stakeholders was essential for gaining

support and ownership. In this context the

motivation for local actors to participate in the

programme came from the chance to improve

livelihoods (Schipper, 2007), while national and

provincial agencies were motivated by the poten-

tial to reduce the physical risks of flooding, pol-

lution and biodiversity loss (Adger et al., 2005).

We attribute the programme’s success to:

B Partnerships: Establishing andbuildingstrategic

partnerships with key organizations (including

donors) ensured the successful delivery of the

goal and targets. It was equally, if not more

important, to build capacity within partners

to sustain these successes.

B Demonstrations: Demonstration sites allowed

for attention to be focused on key issues and

to seek practical and commonly agreed sol-

utions, using new and innovative approaches;

they also served as a valuable communi-

cations tool to advance the goal of the

programme.

B Flexibility: The ability of the programme team

to adapt to the needs of the stakeholders in

the face of changing policies and priorities

was a critical factor in ensuring that the out-

comes were useful and sustainable.

B Learning: The proactive ‘learning by doing’

approach adopted by the programme contrib-

uted to organizational learning within WWF

and within the key partner organizations.

B Facilitation: It was important that the pro-

gramme positioned itself strategically in

order to be able to provide a common plat-

form to facilitate discussions between stake-

holders and beneficiaries to develop

consensus-based solutions.

B Communication: It was important to recognize

the role of effective outreach to target audi-

ences to achieve the goals of the programme

and to sustain the outcomes.

B Mainstreaming: It was important to ensure that

the programme’s objectives and interventions

were linked to the government’s policies and

priorities. This allowed the outcomes and

lessons learned to be used to improve policy

246 Yu et al.


and practice and ensure support for the pro-

gramme’s goals.

These success factors appear consistent with

the systematic social learning promoted by Lee

(1993) for more sustainable environmental man-

agement. Further, these interventions emphasize

the importance of enhancing the capacities of

people and institutions in undertaking effective

adaptation.

6.2. Magnification

There are hundreds of sluice gates along the

Yangtze River that cut off lakes, so there is con-

siderable potential to scale up this approach.

This approach to Yangtze floodplain restoration

represents a step towards better operation of

existing infrastructure rather than further

engineering-led interventions. It is substantially

decentralized and largely applies existing knowl-

edge. Further lessons and recommendations

based on this programme have been proposed

to national agencies in the Yangtze Conservation

and Development Report 2007 (Yang et al., 2009).

Further, this floodplain restoration strategy offers

an alternative to the maladaptation of cutting

more wetlands off from the river, as is proposed

at Poyang Lake to manage droughts and floods

(Water Resources Department, 2008). All the pro-

blems discussed in this paper for the demon-

stration region are also problems for the broader

middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze, includ-

ing the Poyang and Dongting lakes regions. At the

Yangtze basin level, the programme has provided

case studies that are influencing the policies of

key institutions in river basin management and

climate change adaptation, such as the biennial

Yangtze Forum. The Changjiang (Yangtze) Water

Resources Commission has initiated a basin

master-planning process, which is drawing upon

key lessons from the programme to incorporate

climate change adaptation and wetlands conser-

vation measures.

At the national level, the programme promoted

the adoption of re-linking river and lakes as a key

measure in related policies. These efforts have

influenced other related policy changes at national

level, such as the National Wetland Conservation

Project, the draft National Wetland Conservation

Regulations, the proposed National Natural

Reserve Management Law and the national river

basin planning process that is currently under way.

The programme’s many interventions for

more adaptive river and lake management at the

site, county, provincial, basin and national

scales have been mutually reinforcing; they

have facilitated more effective and efficient

management and ensured equitable outcomes

at both the site level and the legitimacy of the

actions consistent with Adger et al. (2005).

Future challenges include improving cross-sector

policy development and enhancing accountabil-

ity for the implementation of agreed-upon

policies.

7. Conclusions

This case shows that restoring freshwater ecosys-

tems has increased the resilience of the environ-

ment and economy to extreme weather events

and eutrophication, which are predicted to be

exacerbated with climate change. The connec-

tivity between the Yangtze River and its flood-

plain wetlands and lakes has been reinstated.

Assisting local fish farmers to adopt more sustain-

able practices has enhanced their livelihoods and

the environment, and made these communities

less vulnerable to extreme events. Working in

partnership with government agencies has

ensured that these new practices are now main-

streamed into related policies, plans, financing

and routine operations, and facilitated their

adoption in other provinces. These shifts in

behaviour highlight the need to concurrently

improve livelihoods and reduce exposure to

physical disasters that may be exacerbated

by anthropogenic climate change, the need to

build the capacity of people and institutions to

manage changes in behaviour, and the opportu-

nities for decentralized adaptation that does not

rely on new infrastructure investments.



Acknowledgements

The WWF-HSBC Yangtze Programme was funded

by HSBC and managed by WWF-UK as part of

their 2002–2006 Investing in Nature Partnership.

The WWF-HSBC Climate Partnership funded this

research. This research draws on the fieldwork of a

considerable number of WWF staff, partners and

donors, who cannot all be named but whose con-

tributions are greatly appreciated.

References

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248 Yu et al.


Integrated river basin management in the ConchosRiver basin, Mexico: A case study of freshwater climatechange adaptationJ. EUGENIO BARRIOS1,*, J. ALFREDO RODRIGUEZ-PINEDA2 and MAURICIO DE LA MAZABENIGNOS3

1WWF-Mexico, River Basin Management Program, Avenue Mexico 51, Col Hipodromo-Condesa, Mexico DF, C.P. 06100, Mexico2WWF-Mexico, River Basin Management Program, C. Coronado 1005, Col Centro, Chihuahua, Chih., C.P. 31000, Mexico3WWF-Chihuahuan Desert Program, C. Coronado 1005, Col Centro, Chihuahua, Chih., C.P. 31000, Mexico

In Mexico, due to reduced and unevenly distributed hydrological resources and incipient water management capabilities, climatechange adaptation in the water sector is recognized as an urgent issue. To derive lessons for climate change adaptation, this paperevaluates the results gained after five years of an integrated river basin management (IRBM) programme in the Conchos River innorthern Mexico. Autonomous adaptation measures assessed include: modernization of irrigation practices; pilot sustainablewatershed management projects in the upper basin; development of an environmental flow assessment and a proposal to improvewater allocation; and the creation of the Inter-institutional Working Group as a basin organization. These measures have improvedriver basin management, yet adverse outcomes were also observed, such as impacts of surface water efficiency measures thatwere not managed in conjunction with groundwater. Key adaptation lessons derived include: the importance of multi-stakeholderparticipation in designing and implementing adaptive management measures; the need for significant investment in transfer ofexpertise and capacity building; and the positive effect of linking local, national and international institutions. These results highlightthe need for more investment in ‘soft’ adaptive management in place of infrastructure. In the Rio Conchos, if these ‘no regrets’adaptation measures are consolidated in the following years, they will serve as a foundation to develop planned and more effectiveclimate change adaptation programmes, and enhance institutional, environmental and societal resilience.

Keywords: adaptation; basin; climate change; integrated river basin management; river; water

1. Introduction

Beginning in 2004, the alliance between WWF

and the Gonzalo Rio Arronte Foundation

(WWF-FGRA) commenced an integrated river

basin management (IRBM) strategy in three

Mexican river basins: the Conchos River in the

state of Chihuahua, the Copalita-Zimatan-

Huatulco Rivers in the state of Oaxaca, and the

San Pedro-Mezquital River in the states of

Durango and Nayarit. The programme aims to

improve water management in order to maximize

the economic and social benefits derived from

water resources in an equitable manner, while at

the same time preserving and restoring fresh-

water ecosystems.

Water scarcity already impacts on large por-

tions of Mexico, especially in the arid north

where annual water availability per person is

only 1,750 m3 compared to the national mean

of 4,416 m3/person/year (CONAGUA (Comision

Nacional del Agua), 2007). This unbalanced

hydrological distribution jeopardizes the social

and economic development of approximately

60% of Mexican territory and 77% of the

Mexican population.

case study




Climate change forecasts predict that there will

be further impacts on water resources in Mexico.

For example, less runoff and more frequent

droughts are expected in the arid north. Further-

more, as in other parts of the world, demand for

consumptive water is expected to exceed supply,

partly as a result of the impacts of global

warming on water supplies up to 2025 (Voros-

marty et al., 2000). Consequently, Mexico needs

to develop effective climate change adaptations,

particularly to cope with the exacerbation of

water scarcity.

This paper assesses the water sector adaptation

implemented in the Rio Conchos basin. The

authors consider that this sort of autonomous

adaptation in the water sector (Kundzewicz

et al., 2007; Bates et al., 2008) holds lessons that

can aid the design of more effective climate

change adaptation programmes. This case study

was prepared as part of a larger review of fresh-

water autonomous adaptation projects by WWF,

which makes up this volume.

The Conchos River basin is one of the most

important basins in northern Mexico, draining

an area of 67,000 km2. It comprises 14% of

the binational (Mexico–USA) Rio Bravo/Rio

Grande1 basin, which has a catchment area in

Mexico of 226,280 km2 and annual runoff of

6,177 million m3/year; one-third of this volume

(2,553 million m3/year) is provided by the

Conchos River tributary. The Conchos River orig-

inates in the Sierra Madre Occidental, locally

known as Sierra Tarahumara, at a mean altitude

of 2,300 m above sea level, and makes a con-

fluence with the Rio Grande/Bravo at the US–

Mexican border (Figure 1). The river and its

tributaries are regulated by seven main reservoirs

with a total capacity of 3,654 million m3.

Annual precipitation in the basin ranges from

700 mm in the upper portion to 250 mm in the

lower portion. Precipitation predictions for the

next 100 years indicate a slight increment in rain-

fall in the study area (Hadley Centre, 2005),

although this increase will be insignificant due to

the increase in air temperature and evaporation,

and soil water deficit increments (Raynal-

Villasenor and Rodrıguez-Pineda, 2008). In

addition to the low precipitation values, the basin

is prone to long periods of drought, such as the

most recent, which extended from 1993 to 2005

(Munoz et al., 2006; Reyes-Gomez et al., 2006).

2. Water availability and use

Historical basin runoff is 2,244.7 million m3; 44%

of this volume is produced in the upper basin

(985.7 million m3) (DOF, 2008), the Sierra Tara-

humara, and feeds the Boquilla dam – the main

source of water for the Delicias Irrigation District

and the Conchos River basin (Munoz, 2007).

Water scarcity is the main threat to life in the

Chihuahua Desert. Since the 19th century, the

construction of irrigation projects and dams for

agriculture has reduced hydrological variability;

however, these adaptations were challenged by

the 1993–2005 drought, which reduced river

inflows to 25% of the historical mean over the

last 60 years. In 1999, the Rio Grande did not

reach the Gulf of Mexico for the first time in

recorded history.

In 2004, when the longest measured drought

broke (Reyes-Gomez et al., 2006), the Conchos

River surface water availability reached a normal

value of 1,679 million m3 allocated to consump-

tive uses that was distributed as follows:

1,648 million m3 (98%) for irrigated agriculture,

23 million m3 (1.4%) for domestic use, 3 mil-

lion m3 (0.2%) for industry and 5 million m3

(0.4%) for other uses. For non-consumptive

uses, a volume of 2,311 million m3 was used for

hydroelectric facilities. These values can be com-

pared to those of 1995, at the beginning of the

drought, when agricultural water use decreased

to only 315 million m3 (CONAGUA, 2007,

2008a), and also to the additional 432 million m3

that Mexico is obliged to deliver to the USA from

the Rio Conchos under the 1944 water treaty

(Water Treaty, 1944).

250 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza


FIGURE 1 The Conchos River basin area, Mexico

Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin, Mexico 251


The basin consists of three irrigation districts. The

DR-005 Delicias covers 81% of the total irrigated

area (i.e. 88,000 ha and 12,000 farmers). Likewise,

it is allocated 83% of the basin’s total water

volume (1,132 million m3/yr) in surface water

rights. It represents by far the greatest impact on

water extraction in the Conchos River

(CONAGUA, 1997).

The Jimenez–Camargo, Camargo–Delicias,

Meoqui–Delicias and the Aldama–San Diego

aquifers are the main groundwater sources for

extensive agricultural areas and for urban uses.

Of these, the Jimenez–Camargo and Meoqui–

Delicias are overexploited at respective rates of

1.50 and 1.56 times the estimated natural

recharge (CONAGUA, 2007). These hydrogeolo-

gical basins, located under the main arteries of

the Conchos, Florido and San Pedro Rivers, need

to be managed to guarantee base water flows

and also as future underground water storage to

avoid greater evaporative losses due to climate

change.

Based on the air temperature increments fore-

cast by the Hadley Centre (2005) and the IPCC

(2007), Raynal-Villasenor and Rodrıguez-Pineda

(2008) developed evaporation and moisture

deficit scenarios. Results show that potential

evaporation will increase by 2.0% to 7.3%, while

the moisture deficit will increase by 2.4% to

11.3% as air temperature increases by 1 8C to

3 8C over the next 30 and 100 years, respectively.

3. Methods

WWF’s intervention in the Conchos River is part of

the Chihuahuan Desert Conservation Plan and the

WWF Mexico freshwater conservation strategy.

It is focused on implementing an IRBM model

to conserve freshwater ecosystems; working with

governments, the private sector, local commu-

nities, and non-governmental organizations; and

implementing demonstration projects for the sus-

tainable use of water.

The project is being implemented through four

main strategies:

B Recovering freshwater ecosystem functions

through an environmental flow allocation,

which is water that is needed for the

environment.

B Enhanced river basin governance through

river basin councils and public participation.

B Small-scale replicable projects to demonstrate

rational water usage and natural resources

management that can provide specific

support to enhance living conditions in

rural communities.

B Public outreach and educational activities

aimed at creating awareness of water scarcity,

water values, and the role of water as a part of

the environment, as well as communicating

lessons learned from the project.

After five years of implementation, this paper

reviews the factors that aided or hindered the

WWF-FGRA programme so that lessons from

past and current water management experiences

may serve as a foundation upon which to

develop more reliable climate change adaptation

policies and practices. As stated by several

authors, water management involves adaptation,

and there is a lot to be learned from autonomous

adaptation (as undertaken in the Conchos River)

for enhancing adaptation to climate change

(Kundzewicz et al., 2007; Bates et al., 2008).

4. Results

The outcomes from the four major WWF insti-

gated interventions that form the IRBM model

in the Rio Conchos from 2004–2009 are

described below.

4.1. Environmental flows as an IRBM adaptivemanagement tool

The current water management paradigm in

Mexico has promoted total extraction of water

for consumptive uses. The proposal in the Rio

Conchos to set up an environmental flow is

focused on defining a new paradigm in which



water needed for the environment – both tem-

porally and spatially – becomes a limit on water

extraction in order to foster long-term sustain-

ability. Furthermore, this type of ecosystem-based

approach was anticipated to increase the resili-

ence of the environment and the local society to

the impacts of climate change.

The integration of environmental flows under

scarcity conditions in arid regions, such as the

Rio Conchosbasin, raises manyscientific, adminis-

trative, engineering and ideological challenges.

First, (a) a scientific-based analysis is required to

determine the quantity and quality of water that

the river needs, as well as when it is required, in

order to maintain ecosystem functions; (b) water

administration must be modified to reallocate the

water rights of current users; (c) hydraulic infra-

structure must be operated under new rules to

resemble natural flows; and (d) water users must

understand that a flowing river is not a waste of

water but rather part of a healthy water basin.

This is a new paradigm for water management

that, although recognized in the Mexican National

Water Law of 1992, has not yet been implemented.

The Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) for

the Conchos River was a useful process to pro-

pose an ecosystem approach to water manage-

ment for key stakeholders. It has also provided a

mechanism to integrate previously fragmented

and poorly accessible information. For instance,

hydrological information was recovered from the

Mexican National Water Agency’s (CONAGUA)

archives to form a comprehensive hydrological

database. WWF, along with partners including

the University of Texas, used this database to

develop the water demand and supply model for

the Conchos River using the Water Evaluation

and Planning System (WEAP) (Patino-Gomez

et al., 2007, 2008). This model is a key tool for

developing water management scenarios based

on the predicted inflow variations that occurred

during the last drought, and for the prediction of

further variations due to climate change.

An unexpected benefit arising from this

improved information system is its application

to flood management. Melchor Lopez (pers.

commun., 2007), a specialist from CONAGUA

in the Chihuahua Office, states that the EFA

hydrological and climate database was an essen-

tial tool used to safely operate Las Virgenes dam

when it was subject to an extreme precipitation

event in 2007.

As a part of the EFA process, ecological analy-

ses were made based on habitat assessments

and biological indicators (invertebrates, macro-

invertebrates and riparian vegetation). The His-

torical Biological Index (HBI) and the Index of

Biological Integrity (IBI) are now measured at 21

sites every two years, and are part of the monitoring

system (Contreras-Balderas et al., 2005). All of this

information was used by a group of experts to

develop the EFA by applying the Building Block

Methodology (BBM) (King et al., 2000). It is recog-

nized as one of the most complete EFAs ever

performed in Mexico, and it has been used as a

model for other basins where WWF is working in

Mexico and for the development of national stan-

dards and regulations. The EFA is being proposed

as a strategy aimed at achieving the sustainable

use of water in the basin by the year 2030. The strat-

egy sets yearly goals to recover the currently over-

allocated 438 million m3 deficit of water, as recog-

nized by CONAGUA (pers. commun., Lopez,

2008). This water volume will represent a sustain-

able extraction in the basin for the recovery and

conservation of river ecosystems, and will assist

compliance with the water deliveries under the

Rio Bravo/Grande international treaty (Inter-

national Boundary and Water Commission/Comi-

sion Internacional de Lımites y Aguas – IBWC/

CILA, 2009) – from which one-third of the total

water volume goes to the USA and two-thirds

goes to the Mexican states in the lower part of the

basin (Trueba and Goicochea, 2008).

4.2. Agricultural modernization

After the first year of drought in 1994, the absence

of rainfall resulted in conflict between the farmers



and water authorities, who decided not to use the

water stored in the main reservoirs since there

was not enough water for all users. As a result,

8,000 ha of pecan trees were lost, as well as thou-

sands of hectares of alfalfa and other perennial

crops (Chavez, 2007). Thereafter, in the second

and subsequent years, the Mexican farmers and

water and agricultural authorities worked

together in order to maintain or recover irrigated

agriculture and to deliver the required amount of

water to the Rio Bravo basin and the USA.

Informed by a WWF assessment document

(WWF, 2002), the government increased agricul-

tural water efficiency from 44 to 66% through

the implementation of more efficient irrigation

techniques in the Delicias irrigation district

(CONAGUA, 2006, 2008b). Water demand man-

agement works were undertaken with an invest-

ment of US$140 million from the North

American Development Bank, to assist Mexico

to meet the downstream water deliveries required

to fulfil its treaty obligations with the USA. This

investment was used to reduce irrigation water

transmission losses by piping and lining earthen

channels and by increasing the efficiency of

water application in the fields. In addition, a

number of water licences were bought back on a

voluntary basis and retired, thereby reducing irri-

gation water demand and increasing the

reliability of the remaining allocations and the

viability of the farmers concerned.

Changes from low- to high-efficiency irrigation

practices and techniques have reduced the water

volume per hectare for the main crops, as

shown in Table 1. While good results were

achieved, some problems arose, one of which

was related to groundwater sources. Initially

groundwater extraction was not capped and, as

surface water allocations contracted, this resulted

in the displacement of water extraction to the

aquifers. Based on this experience, it has

become clear to the farmers that both surface

and groundwater must be jointly managed in

order to reduce their vulnerability to water

scarcity.

In 2008 it was said that the local farmers and auth-

orities had achieved success, because Mexico had

complied with the international water treaty with

the USA by delivering the required water to the

Rio Bravo (IBWC/CILA, 2009). During this

process, farmers had to drastically change how

they used water in order to produce the same –

or an even greater – quantity of crops using less

water. Thus the modernization process has

resulted in huge changes in the way farmers

think about water, the introduction of modern

techniques and changes in water resources

administration aimed at a more equitable distri-

bution of water among all users. Furthermore,

the drought conditions have made people think

about the role that forest and soil conservation

plays in river basin management. As a result,

farmers and state institutions are recognizing

the importance of the upper basin, where the

most significant volume of water originates, and

the key role of soil conservation and reforestation

in the watershed.

4.3. River basin governance

The Conchos River Commission was created in

1999 as a part of the Rio Bravo Basin Council

under federal water law. However, it has not

been active, and its membership is legally

restricted to water rights owners having a water

TABLE 1 Irrigation efficiencies before and aftermodernization

Crop Irrigation volume (m3/ha) Volume

reduction (%)Before

modernization

After

modernization

Pecans 12.1 8 34

Alfalfa 12.9 9 30

Onions 10.6 7.5 29

Cotton 8.3 6.2 25

Peppers 13.1 7.5 43

Source: Chavez, 2007.



concession, thereby limiting stakeholder partici-

pation. In 2004, WWF created an alternative

organization called the Inter-institutional

Working Group (GIT), which has become an inde-

pendent forum for all stakeholders interested in

the Rio Conchos, whether institutions, groups

or individuals. The GIT was officially recognized

by the Government of Chihuahua in 2005

when a collaborative inter-institutional agree-

ment was signed with WWF. The GIT includes

governmentrepresentatives,waterusers,universi-

ties, indigenous communities, non-governmen-

tal organizations (NGOs) and representatives of

economic sectors. The group has developed a

river basin management plan that has been allo-

cated nearly USD8 million in investments from

federal and state government programmes as a

result of collaboration between public insti-

tutions of the three levels of government (local,

state and federal) in the watershed. Since the

start of the programme, the GIT has carried out

65 activities with an investment of close to

USD3.2 million in 2005, and 60 activities with

an expenditure estimated at USD4.4 million in

2006. Currently, CONAGUA (2008a) is taking

advantage of this process to promote the reactiva-

tion of the Rio Conchos River Basin Commission

among water users; however the GIT, as a multi-

stakeholder organization rather than an exclusive

water user organization, is challenging the

current scope of the river basin commissions

defined by the National Water Law.

The creation of the GIT as an informal insti-

tution has been one of the major successes in

the IRBM strategy. Some of the key elements of

this success are: (a) the promotion of the basin

concept as a geographical area that depends on

the same water source, which is not familiar to

the average person, as shown by a survey in

which 80% of the people in the main Rio

Conchos cities does not know they were part of

the basin (WWF, 2004); (b) a forum not owned

by any one organization, at which government

agencies can present, refine and gain support for

their programmes; and (c) participation of a

broad range of stakeholders in developing a

common vision for the basin and implementing

projects to achieve this vision.

4.4. Demonstration projects to support localcommunities

Indigenous communities made up of Raramuris,

Tepehuano, Pima and Guarijo groups live in

the upper part of the basin, known as Sierra

Tarahumara. The development of this region

has been a challenge throughout Mexican

history. WWF and its partners have focused on

integrating the indigenous communities into

the IRBM process and supporting them to

improve their livelihoods through better water

supply and sanitation, forest conservation and

biodiversity conservation.

Two examples of livelihood improvement

illustrate the outcomes of this community-based

work. The first is the implementation of a soil

conservation project in the Choguita–Aguatos

microbasin that has restored 1,273 ha of eroded

terrain and has directly benefited 433 people by

improving their lands, living conditions and

access to water. The second pilot project was

designed to complement the soil and forest con-

servation practices with livelihood modules to

promote a sustainable rural water management

programme in the Upper Conchos River basin.

Modules include: (a) rain water capture, (b) veg-

etable or backyard gardens, (c) dry toilets based

on ecosan technology,2 and (d) reuse of grey

water and kitchen organic waste. In addition,

actions to protect potable and spring water

sources and to support community water com-

mittees are taking place. Currently, 26 backyard

gardens, each of 100 m2, have been built to

cover a total area of 2,600 m2, as a result of

which around 200 people have benefited directly.

During the summer 2007 harvesting season, each

garden owner was able to produce between four

and 12 species of vegetables and capture at least

10 m3 of water for the winter. Families have



decreased their vulnerability to water scarcity and

low temperatures during the winter. Currently,

this work is being strengthened by supporting

community water committees. Furthermore,

WWF and its partners are developing an ecologi-

cal tourism project in Ejido Panalachi, and a

pilot project on payment for environmental ser-

vices in the Choguita–Aguatos basin, in order to

further develop a proposal to improve the long-

term living conditions of the indigenous commu-

nities in the Sierra Tarahumara, who are the main

owners of the forest watersheds.

5. Discussion

The severe drought in the Conchos River from

1993 to 2005 was an extraordinary opportunity

to study different responses and actions taken

by water users, authorities and NGOs. However,

it should be taken into account that these

responses and actions were not planned under a

climate change vulnerability and adaptation fra-

mework, in which the criteria of effectiveness,

efficiency, equity and legitimacy, as proposed by

Adger et al. (2004), were considered in measuring

adaptation success. These actions were a con-

scious response to climate variability and water

shortage. In this sense, they could become the

foundation of further climate change adapta-

tion measures (Kundzewicz et al., 2007; Bates

et al., 2008).

The IRBM programme for the Conchos River

basin was planned with a number of aims in

mind: as a process to promote a basin-wide

view; to integrate actions to overcome water over-

extraction and conserve freshwater biodiversity;

to develop better basin governance; and to

improve livelihoods of indigenous communities

in the headwaters. As a result of five years’ work,

there are valuable implementation experiences –

the ‘no regrets’ autonomous adaptation measures

– from which to learn, in order to develop a more

effective climate adaptation programme for the

basin, as well as for the country.

The EFA’s implementation strategy in the Rio

Conchos has strengthened the scientific under-

standing of the basin from fields such as hydrology,

ecology and social sciences. It has allowed the pro-

posal of freshwater ecosystem water requirements

to CONAGUA, water stakeholders and the society

for the sustainable management of the river eco-

system as a common vision for all. Thus the

benefit of maintaining and restoring a socio-

ecological river system that was not considered at

the time of the 1993–2005 drought is now being

contemplated. This vision promotes, in a practical

way, the convergence of vulnerability and resili-

ence understanding (Adger, 2006), and therefore

a better framework to adapt to climate change.

The North American Development Bank’s

USD140 million investment to improve irrigation

infrastructure is the most important adaptation

action taken in recent years. It has resulted in

savings of between 25 and 43% in crop water

use, and an increase in irrigation efficiency from

44 to 66%. However, the success of such actions

depends on spatial and temporal scales and

should not be addressed simply in terms of the

objectives of individual adaptors (Adger et al.,

2004). Notably, this investment was driven in

large part by the different but converging inter-

ests of local, state, national and US authorities

(through the Mexico–USA water treaty) in mana-

ging water scarcity. To date, this action has

achieved the objective of reducing agricultural

water demand, but it has decreased the ground-

water recharge that was taking place in the

unlined irrigation channels before moderniz-

ation and, consequently, it could be part of the

increment in fluoride and arsenic concentrations

of natural origin (Rodrıguez-Pineda et al., 2005),

that affects groundwater drinking supplies in

the middle basin by reduction of fresh water infil-

tration and heavy groundwater withdrawal

mainly for agricultural use (Mahklnecht et al.,

2008). This illustrates the need for adaptation

measures to be planned with a broad range of

expertise and for stakeholders to avoid such

adverse outcomes.



The water demand reductions that have been

achieved could be a temporary solution, since

they are insufficient to sustain irrigation farm-

ing if available water is reduced by more than

25%, as occurred during the last drought. The

economic return from agricultural production

in the region depends primarily on more

than 60,000 ha of alfalfa as a cash crop

(CONAGUA, 2008a, 2008b) and on high-value

crops such as pecans, onions and peppers.

According to farmers interviewed in the Delicias

district, adaptations that would enable even less

water use while maintaining or increasing econ-

omic returns are hindered by a lack of capacity

to diversify their production and cultivate

high-value crops in domestic, regional and

international markets. As such, a sustainable

adaptation appears to first require adjustments

in policies, institutions and attitudes in order to

establish enabling conditions, which then

would facilitate technological and infrastructural

changes (Schipper, 2007). As stated by Liverman

(1999) in its adaptation studies on drought in

Mexico, over the longer term, improvements in

irrigation efficiency have reduced drought vul-

nerability in some irrigation districts, and new

proposals for decentralized management and

water pricing may allow more flexible adjustment

to water supply variations. In this sense, it has

become clear through the Rio Conchos experi-

ence that modernization of the agricultural

sector in Mexico will not be enough to achieve

an effective adaptation to reduce vulnerability.

The GIT has played a key role as a river basin

entity that promotes consideration of proposed

measures from diverse perspectives, equity of out-

comes and legitimacy of decision making. Until

now, adaptation actions have been decided

mainly by the authorities, with limited partici-

pation of stakeholders other than the farmers. It

is clear that decisions and actions taken prior to

the 2004 process would have been better in the

post-2004 environment, since they would have

been taken considering other water users and

the river ecosystem. For example:

B A USD140 million investment in the irriga-

tion district compared with the USD1.4

million invested in water and sanitation ser-

vices in the Sierra Tarahumara in 2004

(World Bank, 2007).

B Water savings were not allocated to recover

the river ecosystem, but were rather proposed

to increase the irrigation surface area. Cur-

rently, there is a proposal to allocate these

savings to the environment and restore river

ecosystems.

B There was no consideration of groundwater

impacts due to the reduction of water infiltra-

tion from unlined channels and their impact

on drinking water sources. Now it is clearer

that surface and groundwater must be

managed together.

B The Conchos River Commission was not

active at all in promoting participation or a

river basin view. Currently, the GIT is

playing the role of a river basin entity.

Consequently the authors contend that GIT, as a

multi-stakeholder, establishes a better basis for

adaptation decisions than a single stakeholder

view, which avoids adverse outcomes, increases

the effectiveness of adopted measures and

enhances resilience. However, the GIT is overly

dependent on voluntary work, as funding

for this basin-scale management institution

remains uncertain.

As in other places in Mexico, it is clear that

infrastructure development has been preferred

in the Conchos River basin over soft infrastruc-

ture actions, which are not yet considered a pri-

ority. As stated by Adger et al. (2004), the

beneficial effects of soft engineering approaches

are uncertain; however, in the Conchos River,

these types of measures have shown good results

on investment, such as the case of the GIT. A

key barrier to soft infrastructure interventions is

the limited financial support, if any, that they

are receiving. This is especially important

because the recently presented Mexico Special

Program on Climate Change 2008–2012 (PEF,



2009) is placing hydraulic infrastructure at the

core of the adaptation strategy. It will be a signifi-

cant programme, but its effectiveness depends

upon the active and informed participation of

stakeholders in its planning and implementation.

The IPCC has also raised this concern in the dis-

cussion of demand-side vs. supply-side adap-

tation options, indicating that it is a matter of

uncertainty vs. certainty in results, and proposing

that although supply-side options have environ-

mental consequences, they can be alleviated in

many cases (Kundzewicz et al., 2007, pp. 197–

198). Based on the Conchos River experience,

demand-side adaptation must be considered as

the first option, since it would not allow further

environmental degradation; so the development

of good water governance to support demand-

side options is a key issue.

At the local level in the Sierra Tarahumara,

concrete experiences illustrate how traditional

projects to improve human well-being are the

best way to reduce indigenous communities’

vulnerability to climate variability. At this

time, these projects are covering a small amount

of the population, since actions to support local

indigenous communities must respect their

customs and traditional decision-making pro-

cesses. This is a good example of how legitimacy

adds to project implementation. However,

through this experience it has also become clear

that if these projects are not complemented by

local organization and community participation

in the river basin governance, indigenous com-

munities could be threatened by water manage-

ment decisions. As stated by Adger (2006),

equity within the decision-making process is as

important as the equity of the outcome in redu-

cing vulnerability.

Since the Conchos River is part of a larger trans-

boundary basin, the challenge ahead is not only

to develop an evidence-based adaptation strategy

but also to ultimately integrate this strategy with

the entire Rio Bravo basin and into the Mexico–

USA international water agreement. Integrating

climate change adaptation across these geo-

political entities is a challenge, since it requires

action from the local to the international level.

While it provides one framework for action, the

Mexico–USA water treaty (IBWC/CILA, 2009)

has not been significantly revised since 1944,

during which time climate change and shifting

human demands have been constantly imposing

new challenges. Consequently, amendments to

the agreement to manage for climate change

should be sought.

6. Conclusions

In the process of implementing the IRBM pro-

gramme in the Conchos River, the Alliance

WWF-FGRA has developed an effective model

for adaptation in water and river basin manage-

ment that combines an ecosystem-based

approach, public participation and support of

indigenous communities to improve their liveli-

hoods based on biodiversity conservation.

Adaptive management in the Rio Conchos

basin has proven more of a political than a techni-

cal challenge, as it has elsewhere in the water

sector (Allan, 2003). Stimulating political support

for adaptive water management in the Rio

Conchos basin has required extensive investment

in awareness raising, transfer of expertise and

other capacity building to overcome lack of infor-

mation, weak institutions and limited public

participation.

Most of the useful experiences from this

process arise from comparing the decisions

taken both before and after the 2004 process. Pre-

viously, most decisions were made by each sector

or agency in isolation, and some decisions rep-

resented maladaptation. Since 2004, the IRBM

approach provides a comprehensive framework

for considering a broad range of expertise and

interests, and for decision making on adaptation

measures that is more likely to be effectively

implemented without adverse outcomes. In this

case, the IRBM in the Conchos River is the most

important and clear adaptation strategy.



The Mexico Special Program on Climate

Change 2008–2012 (PEF, 2009) favours hydraulic

infrastructure projects. However, based on the

Conchos River experience, adaptive water

management should instead favour public par-

ticipation, soft engineering approaches, an

ecosystem-based approach and demand-side

adaptation options prior to any further physical

alteration of water sources.

Acknowledgements

This programme has been developed by the Alli-

ance WWF Mexico and the Gonzalo Rio Arronte

Foundation, with support from HSBC, USAID,

WWF-UK and The Coca Cola Company. The

main participants in this programme are the Gov-

ernment of the State of Chihuahua, the National

Water Commission (CONAGUA), the National

Forestry Commission (CONAFOR), the commu-

nities of the Ejido Panalachi and Choguita, and

the NGOs Alcadeco and Profauna.

Notes

1. The Rio Bravo is known in the USA as the Rio

Grande.

2. Ecological sanitation (ecosan) solves sanitation pro-

blems by recovering and reusing the resources con-

tained in excreta and wastewater (www.ecosan.org).

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Participatory river basin management in the Sao JoaoRiver, Brazil: A basis for climate change adaptation?LUIZ FIRMINO MARTINS PEREIRA1,*, SAMUEL BARRETO2 and JAMIE PITTOCK3

1Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao, Edifıcio Ferreira, Av Getulio Vargas, 603–305/305, Centro, Araruama, 28970-000,

RJ, Brazil2WWF Brazil, SHIS EQ QL 6/8, Conjunto E-2 andar, 71620-430, Brasılia, Brazil3Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

This paper describes an empirical case study of enhanced water management in the Sao Joao River basin on the southeastcoast of Brazil between 1999 and 2008. The autonomous adaptation measures applied are assessed to derive lessons formore effective climate change adaptation. In response to severe eutrophication of their coastal lakes, effective, local multi-stakeholder institutions were established under the auspices of the Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao from 1999 toimprove basin management. Having significantly reduced the pollution problem, other environmental challenges are nowbeing addressed. In managing environmental problems with multiple causes and effects, engaging multiple stakeholders andcommunicating the need to change environmental management, these local institutions have established the types ofcapacities needed for climate change adaptation. Factors contributing to the strengthening of this adaptive capacity include:engagement of local non-governmental organizations, companies and municipal governments; leadership and development ofa collective identity; enabling national and state water laws; an ability to raise funds; and implementation of an iterative,adaptive management approach to environmental management.

Keywords: adaptation; Brazil; climate change; institutions; river; Sao Joao; water

1. Introduction

This paper examines what motivated the commu-

nity in the Sao Joao region on the coast of

southeastern Brazil (see Figure 1) to change their

management of the basin and the factors that sus-

tained these processes. It is published here as part

of a special edition providing an overarching

assessment (Pittock, 2009) of the global lessons

derived from the six WWF empirical case studies

of autonomous adaptation to climate change in

developing countries. We start by reviewing rel-

evant climate change impacts and adaptation

concepts before detailing the situation in the

Sao Joao region.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) states that ‘observational records

and climate projections provide abundant evi-

dence that freshwater resources are vulnerable

and have the potential to be strongly impacted

by climate change’ (Bates et al., 2008). However,

this paper looks at a region where there is very

little published literature on climate change

impacts or adaptation measures. Climate change

forecasts for this area lack high resolution;

however, impacts are expected from more

extreme events (Pezza and Simmonds, 2005;

Dufek and Ambrizzi, 2008), higher temperatures,

sea level rise, possible increases in precipitation,

exacerbation of water pollution, and loss of biodi-

versity (Christensen et al., 2007; Magrin et al.,

2007; Bates et al., 2008).

Even without climate change the world faces

grave challenges in sustaining adequate water

case study




resources, and the water sector has long applied

adaptive management practices. The IPCC recog-

nize this in saying (Kundzewicz et al., 2007,

p. 196): ‘Adaptation to changing conditions in

water availability and demand has always been

at the core of water management’. The IPCC

define this type of ‘autonomous adaptation’

(Bates et al., 2008, p. 48) as ‘those that do not con-

stitute a conscious response to climate stimuli,

but result from changes to meet altered

demands, objectives and expectations’. We

contend that there is much to be learnt for more

effective adaptation from these measures. This

paper also considers the benefits of such

interventions in terms of increasing resilience

and reducing vulnerability (Bates et al., 2008).

We believe that the lack of high resolution

climate change forecasts requires governments

and societies to begin adaptation despite the

uncertainties (Richardson et al., 2009). An insti-

tutional assessment by Tompkins et al. (2008) of

disaster risk management and long-term adaptive

capacity building identified four critical factors

that led to reductions in risk: flexible, learning-

based, responsive governance (such as stakeholder

participation, access to knowledge, accountability

and transparency); committed, reform-minded

and politically active actors; disaster risk reduction

FIGURE 1 Location of the Sao Joao River basin (dark grey) and adjacent catchments (light grey) in the Lagos Sao Joao

hydrographic region

262 Pereira, Barreto and Pittock


integrated into other social and economic policy

processes; and a long-term commitment to mana-

ging risk. Tompkins and Adger (2004) argue that

‘community-based management enhances adap-

tive capacity in two ways, by building networks

that are important for coping with extreme

events and by retaining the resilience of the under-

pinning resources and ecological systems’. In the

related field of river basin governance, similar

mechanisms have been proposed for enhancing

water resources management, including commu-

nities of practice and social learning at different

scales and involving diverse stakeholders (Pahl-

Wostl et al., 2007); as well as leadership and build-

ing collective identities (Abers, 2007).

The IPCC propose a number of adaptation

approaches to cope with uncertainty on climate

change impacts. These include no-regrets

policies ‘that would generate net social and/or

economic benefits irrespective of whether or not

anthropogenic climate change occurs’, ‘the

increased use of water management measures

that are relatively robust to uncertainty’, and

integrated water resources management (Bates

et al., 2008).

The potential impacts of and Brazil’s options

for responding to climate change have been

debated in the literature, but this work has

largely focused on the Amazon and semi-arid

northeast portions of the country, and on issues

such as carbon balances, agriculture and biofuel

production. Government policy offers little gui-

dance. The ‘National Plan on Climate Change’

(Government of Brazil, 2008) identifies seven

goals, of which two focus on adaptation. The pro-

posed adaptation actions largely involve further

research and communication activities, although

‘strengthening of environmental sanitation

measures’ is also proposed.

In the Sao Joao River and adjacent coastal basins

the biodiverse Atlantic forest remnants give way to

farm lands, floodplains and coastal lagoons. The

basin falls within the territories of 12 local govern-

ments in Rio de Janeiro State. In the 3,825 km2

region the resident population of 451,000 people

swells to approximately 2 million people in

holiday periods. The Juturnaiba Dam on the

120 km-long Sao Joao River is the main water

supply for local people (Dantas et al., 2001). By

the late 1990s expanding tourism development

resulted in the coastal lagoons silting up and

becoming polluted with untreated sewerage,

causing a collapse in the fishing industry and

impacting on tourism. The Sao Joao basin was

chosen for this autonomous adaptation case

study because of: (a) WWF’s long history of work

in the region, starting in the 1960s to conserve an

endangered primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin,

which then led to the establishment of a freshwater

conservation programme from 1999; and (b) the

reforms in basin management since 1999.

2. Assessment

This paper reviews the changes in management of

the Sao Joao national hydrographic region from

1999 to 2008 based on research undertaken in

late 2008. The study sought to derive lessons con-

cerning (unplanned) autonomous adaptation to

climate change, with reference to the success

factors for more effective adaptation and river

basin management proposed by Tompkins and

Adger (2004), Adger et al. (2005), Abers (2007)

and Pahl-Wostl et al. (2007). We applied a

largely qualitative analytical framework devel-

oped by Pittock (2009: Annex) to assess (a) auton-

omous adaptation, (b) socio-economic and (c)

conservation outcomes.

The assessment covers the local implemen-

tation of the 1997 national water law and 1999

Rio de Janeiro State water law (ANA, 2007) to

decentralize and democratize water management

(Brannstrom, 2004; Abers et al., 2006). In 1999

the Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao

(the Consortium) was formed by the 12 local gov-

ernments and now includes four stakeholder

representatives from the Sao Joao Basin Commit-

tee (Bidegain, 2002). This Committee was estab-

lished in 2004 with membership from three tiers

of government, academics, local companies and

58 civil society groups to engage basin residents

more broadly and advise the Consortium

(Pereira, 2007). Extensive investment in an

Participatory river basin management in the Sao Joao River, Brazil 263


environmental education programme from 2003

continues to build public support for catchment

management reforms (Kobata, 2006). The Con-

sortium established a process of developing and

implementing a basin management plan (Bide-

gain and Pereira, 2006) with subsidiary work

plans. The Consortium is now on its third work

plan for the coastal lagoons. The Consortium

secured resources from (a) secondment of a staff

member from the state government to lead the

secretariat; (b) membership fees from municipal

governments scaled to reflect the resident popu-

lations; and (c) participation fees from local com-

panies. Establishment of a number of sub-basin

and thematic working groups from 2005 has

facilitated widespread participation in adaptive

basin management, increasing local capacities.

These institutions were established for integrated

river basin management, to progressively solve

major environmental problems, starting with

water pollution and fisheries management.

3. Results

A number of the key benefits resulting from the

strengthened institutions are summarized here

in terms of adaptation, livelihood and environ-

mental outcomes. The degradation of the rivers,

Juturnaiba reservoir (30 km2), and Araruama

(220 km2) and Saquarema (24 km2) coastal

lagoons by discharge of untreated waste waters

threatened the tourism and fishing industries

which comprise 70% of the region’s economy.

The Consortium, fishing community and allied

NGOs lobbied and took legal action against the

state government pollution regulator. A key

outcome was the renegotiation of water supply

company concessions that saw an initial

USD38.5 million investment in 2002–2005 in

new sewerage treatment infrastructure that has

reduced wastewater discharge by 75%. A

USD19.3 million second phase is due to collect

all waste waters for collection by 2009, and a

third phase from 2010 to 2023 is planned to sep-

arate storm water from sewerage. In addition,

the silted up entrance to the Araruama Lagoon

was dredged to restore greater exchange of water

with the sea. The substantial reduction of

pollution inflows has reduced the threat that

eutrophication of lagoon waters would be exacer-

bated by higher temperatures with climate

change.

Substantial socio-economic benefits in restor-

ing the fishing and tourism industries have

resulted from the interventions. Improved water

quality has seen restoration of mangrove habitats

and increases in fish, shrimp and bird popu-

lations. The fishing industry has been

re-established and now supports 600 families,

and the tourism industry has recovered. Econ-

omic growth is increasing regional training and

employment opportunities. The Consortium

has also targeted disadvantaged sectors of the

local society who often reside on and farm the

most flood-prone lands. For instance, women in

two communities are participating in a project

to produce handicrafts for sale to tourists as a

means of increasing and diversifying incomes to

reduce poverty and their communities’ vulner-

ability to extreme events.

Following success in reducing water pollution,

the Committee and Consortium decided to scale

up work from 2007 to reduce erosion and conserve

the water sources and biodiversity through linking

and restoring remnant riparian and other wetland

habitats. The Juturnaiba Dam will be retrofitted

with a fish ladder at a cost of USD400,000 to recon-

nect populations of migratory species like grey

mullet, sea bass and prawns, and the dam’s operat-

ing rules are being revised. The river bypass canal

downstream of the dam will be decommissioned

at a cost of USD700,000 to restore the Rio Sao

Joao’s natural course and the adjacent flood plain

wetlands. The canal will be converted to aquacul-

ture ponds, further diversifying the local

economy. A payment for environmental services

scheme is funding previously unemployed resi-

dents to restore riparian forests. This is reducing

erosion and linking remnant habitats of a threa-

tened primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin, whose

population is increasing as the forests are restored.

A network of protected areas is being established

on private and public lands. Biodiversity and the



fishing industry are expected to benefit further as

reconnection and restoration of habitat increases

species populations, access to habitat, ability to

move to new habitats, and thus resilience to

climate change impacts.

As part of this assessment, local residents were

asked their views on what made the institutional

adaptation successful. Mr Arnaldo Villa Nova,

President of the non-governmental organizations

involved in the Consortium explained (pers.

commun.):

The Lagos Region has a wonderful natural heri-

tage, which the civil society has always tried to

preserve. [. . .We started the fight in] the year

2000, when we started with an indefinite

horizon, and with many doubts and questions

to be answered. . . . How long will it resist

degradation, deforestation, and economic

exploitation without any scruples? When can

our children play without the risk of getting

sick? What can we do to recuperate and pre-

serve the region? . . . The strategy applied by

WWF in the Lagos Region was for direct

support to the NGOs, which allowed the

studies, investigations, the planning of projects

for environmental recuperation, environ-

mental education activities, as well as giving a

definitive structure to the Consortium to

accomplish its mission. After some years, the

situation today is very different from the one

in the beginning of the program. Many activi-

ties were implemented to stop degrading

environmental processes, and increasing

awareness of local government as well as the

residents of the region. . . . We are half way in

our journey: there is a lot to do . . ..

Ms Denise Pena, a non-government representa-

tive on the Consortium focused on environ-

mental education, commented (pers. commun.):

The proposal of this new model of environ-

mental management, where decisions must be

taken by those who are acting and living in the

territory of the hydrographic basin, in a decen-

tralized and essentially participative form,

could not take root without processes of

environmental education, which give con-

ditions for productions and acquisition of

knowledge, abilities and the development of

attitudes, aiming at an individual and collective

participation in this adopted model of

management.

4. Discussion

In assessing the changes in the Sao Joao region we

have identified a number of factors influencing

the success and the sustainability of the measures

undertaken.

4.1. Motivation for change

The collapse of the coastal lagoon environments

and consequent socio-economic impacts on the

fishing and tourism industries was the initial

motivation for reform. The progress in Sao Joao

appears to have been aided by funding provided

by WWF to help local NGOs build their capacity,

provide environmental education and develop a

collective identity. This is consistent with Abers’

(2007) assessment of other Brazilian river basins.

With respect to the debate over whether adap-

tation is better facilitated by focusing on social

and biophysical risk reduction or by development

to reduce poverty and enhance livelihoods

(Adger, 2006; Schipper, 2007; Tompkins et al.,

2008), in the case of Sao Joao, the primary invest-

ments enhanced livelihoods in the fishing and

tourism sectors as well as reducing physical

vulnerability. Later and smaller-scale investments

sought to improve the livelihoods of other

disadvantaged groups, including through

employment in environmental restoration. The

Consortium’s staff say that community awareness

raising and engagement, and a virtuous and itera-

tive cycle of successful interventions, has led to

community support for further actions. This is

consistent with the conclusion of Pahl-Wostl

et al. (2007) that social learning institutions are

vital, and Dovers (2005) who identified iterative

programme cycles as being an element of



successful sustainability policies. It is also consist-

ent with Tompkins et al. (2008) who argue that

stakeholder participation, access to knowledge,

accountability and transparency are central to

building long-term adaptive capacity.

4.2. Sustainability and funding

Institutional sustainability of these measures is

enhanced by the local community engagement,

mandate from the national and state water laws,

and the fundraising capacity of the Consortium

(Mea, 2007). While municipal and company fees

do not pay all programme costs, they do enable

leverage of other funds, including the second-

ment of state government staff. The basin insti-

tutions in Sao Joao differ from those in other

parts of Brazil as they combine downward

accountability through the leading role of

municipal governments in the administrative

Consortium, together with multi-stakeholder

participation through the advisory council. This

appears to compare favourably with three other

institutional models for decentralized water

resources management in Brazil (Brannstrom,

2004) in terms of promoting reform, limiting

conflicts, maximizing community engagement

and accountability. This highlights the impor-

tance of concurrent measures across geopolitical

scales, in this case at the individual, basin, local,

state and federal government levels, for effective

adaptation (Adger et al., 2005).

The management interventions undertaken

thus far appear to address some but not all likely

impacts of climate change. The likelihood of

algal blooms with warmer weather has dimin-

ished greatly with the extension of wastewater

treatment, and further benefits for aquatic biodi-

versity and fisheries, reduced erosion and water

quality are likely from the restoration of riparian

forests, the construction of a fish ladder and

removal of the channelized section of the river.

Furthermore, some of the region’s poorest com-

munities have higher and more diverse

incomes, enabling them to cope better with dis-

ruptive events. On the other hand, little

thought has yet been given to management of

more frequent high rainfall events or to likely

rises in sea level. However, the strength of the

community-based management institutions sup-

ports Tompkins and Adger’s (2004) proposition

that greater adaptive capacity has been estab-

lished through stronger social networks and by

retaining the resilience of the underpinning

resources and ecological systems. The problems

dealt with by the river basin management insti-

tutions to date have the same attributes as those

of climate change adaptation challenges: mul-

tiple cause and effect linkages, multiple stake-

holders and communication of the need for

changes in environmental management. Having

addressed eutrophication of regional water

bodies and now riparian restoration, there is the

capacity and will in the basin institutions to

manage the new problems expected to come

with climate change.

4.3. Barriers and lessons

Until this study commenced, the basin manage-

ment institutions had not considered how to

manage climate change. They appeared discour-

aged by the uncertainties in data available on

the likely local impacts of climate change and

lack of locally available expertise. The Consor-

tium staff saw the climate change information

available to them as lacking salience (Meinke

et al., 2006). As a result of this research, the

Consortium staff are now inspired to reassess

how their programme can now become more

climate informed, including by implementing

further no-regrets adaptation measures.

This case study highlights the importance of

strong local institutions for adaptation. The

extensive public communication and engage-

ment has made government institutions more

accountable and responsive (Costa, 2007). The

multi-stakeholder Committee and Consortium

processes built partnerships and consensus for

change, and stopped ‘buck-passing’ between gov-

ernments. This is consistent with the systematic

social learning promoted by Lee (2003). The



Consortium secretariat was kept small and work

was contracted out to other institutions in

the basin, enhancing engagement, partnerships

and capacities for reform. The basin institutions’

subsidiarity mechanisms enhanced local owner-

ship of problems, innovation and successful

responses, consistent with Abers (2007).

4.4. Potential to scale up

Brazil’s national and state water laws could enable

similar work in the approximately 140 similar

river basin institutions across Brazil. Abers

(2007) and Brannstrom (2004, p. 231) outline

factors that have favoured or hindered decentra-

lized stakeholder governance in other Brazilian

basins, and by comparison the Sao Joao insti-

tutional framework appears ‘to encourage a three-

way dynamic among central authorities, local

government and civil society’ and develop a

common local identity particularly effectively.

5. Conclusions

Management of the Sao Joao basin did not con-

sider climate change, but the institutional

reforms and other interventions have established

a strong basis for building resilience and reducing

vulnerability. A number of lessons can be drawn

from this case for more effective adaptation to

climate change:

B Severe pollution of the region’s water bodies

helped mobilize non-governmental organiz-

ations and local leaders to respond.

B Three factors were crucial to the success of

national and state river-basin management

institutions in facilitating reform at the

basin scale: bringing together diverse stake-

holders to work towards a common vision;

local ownership; and an independent finan-

cing mechanism.

B Concurrent investment in activities that both

reduced vulnerability and enhanced liveli-

hoods generated community support and

inspired community confidence in new

interventions by achieving substantial early

successes.

B Proponents of mainstreaming climate change

adaptation must communicate in salient

language and illustrate ‘no- and low-regrets’

options that are effective despite uncertain-

ties as to climate change impacts.

The reforms at Sao Joao highlight the opportu-

nities to mainstream climate change adaptation

through river basin management programmes.

Acknowledgements

HSBC contributed funding to WWF Brazil’s par-

ticipation in the Sao Joao project, as well as to

this assessment.

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Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate changeadaptation: A natural history approachJOHN H. MATTHEWS* and A. J. WICKEL

Conservation Science Department, World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037, USA

Climate shifts are not new in the experience of humans and other species, but the capacity of potential evolutionary and ecologicalresponses to climate change has been reduced through widespread human modifications of natural ecosystems. The magnitude,duration and timescales of altered climate threats require multigenerational strategies for climate change adaptation. In manyplaces terrestrial and aquatic species and human livelihoods are limited by the availability of freshwater resources. Current climatechange adaptation practice places great faith in the ability of climate models to predict specific impacts, which then become thefocus of climate change adaptation activities and thus foster reactive ‘impacts thinking’. Given that freshwater climate variablesare associated with high predictive uncertainty, a novel approach referred to here as ‘adaptation thinking’ treats ecosystems asdynamic entities that will be inherently different from current and past ecosystem states for multiple reasons, including climatechange. As a result, adaptation thinking emphasizes the shifting relationship between institutions and ecosystems. This approachpromotes flexibility and continuous scenario development. Using natural modes of adaptation as a template for sustainabledevelopment should promote collaboration between scientists, policymakers and development professionals.

Keywords: climate change; climate change adaptation; conservation; economic development; freshwater

1. Introduction

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-

mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects

that even with immediate implementation of

climate mitigation policies, the global climate

system will continue to shift and change for

decades. Two centuries of industrial emissions of

greenhouse gases have altered the radiative

forcing of the planet, resulting in rapid changes

in what humans perceive as stationary climate

conditions (IPCC, 2007a; Biggs et al., 2009;

CCSP, 2009). Thus, the need to adjust and adapt

to realized shifts in climate and to prepare for

major shifts in what we have perceived as

‘normal’ weather is crucial for individuals, insti-

tutions, ecosystems and species. Climate change

adaptation (CCA) will be with us for the foresee-

able future.

While it may be of some comfort that humans

and other species have adapted to changes in

climate conditions many times in the past, the

explicit recognition of the importance of treating

climate as a variable rather than as a constant

factor is new for humans. Evolutionary ecologists

believe that past dramatic large-scale climate

change events have had three levels of impacts

on the life history of organisms: alterations in

the geographic range and phenological1 patterns

of species, species extinctions, and (over long

timescales) shifts in the processes of natural selec-

tion and speciation (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003).

The current period of climate change may

qualify as such a serious large-scale event (Root

et al., 2003, Marris, 2007), particularly given the

synergy of climate change to massive shifts in

land use that have also occurred over the past

review article




150 years (e.g. Dahl, 1990; Ricciardi and Rasmus-

sen, 1999; Abell, 2002).

2. Climate change adaptation as a naturalprocess

Despite a growing consensus that humans need

to adapt to climate change, there is little agree-

ment about the actual meaning of CCA (Brooke,

2008; Williams et al., 2008). The IPCC defined

CCA as an ‘adjustment in ecological, social, or

economic systems in response to actual

or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or

impacts . . . to changes in processes, practices, or

structures to moderate or offset potential

damages or to take advantage of opportunities

associated with changes in climate’ (IPCC,

2001). This definition does not distinguish

between the spatial or temporal scale of climate

impacts nor the severity of those impacts, even

though such considerations could result in fun-

damentally different approaches to CCA that

should be explicitly addressed by conservation

and economic development groups.

Fundamental to the concept of CCA is the

implication of vulnerability to negative impacts

from climate change, which must be assessed

through some process before responding with

appropriate ‘adaptations’. Vulnerability is

described by the IPCC as having three com-

ponents: sensitivity to change, exposure to

climate shifts, and degree of adaptive capacity

(IPCC, 2001, Williams et al., 2008). Significantly,

Brooke (2008) points out that most CCA prac-

titioners focus on either human adaptation

(economic development) or species and ecosys-

tem adaptation (conservation) with much less

emphasis on a more holistic sustainability

science that incorporates both development and

conservation, such as through ‘linked

social-ecological systems’ (Holling, 1973).

The means of presenting climate data through

institutions such as the IPCC may be indirectly

influencing how policymakers and development

and conservation groups perceive or frame shifts

in climate. For instance, much current CCA

work is firmly grounded on deterministic assess-

ments of climate change impacts, primarily

derived from climate models. Such CCA

approaches thus effectively assume that (a)

climate shifts will be gradual, (b) shifts in mean

annual climate variables are more important

than the frequency or severity of extreme

weather events, (c) high-confidence CCA plans

can be defined on the basis of circulation model

projections for regional climate decades from

now, (d) that the temporal scale of circulation

model resolution is appropriate for describing

ecosystem-level impacts, and (e) that ecosystems

will remain largely ‘intact’ and ‘recognizable’ as

assemblages of species in the face of climate, or

will shift as ecosystem units. Many of these per-

spectives reflect data presentation or model bias

rather than climate or ecological processes.

Making these assumptions would lead to CCA

projects that are most akin to the biological defi-

nition of acclimatization, i.e. adjustments by an

individual organism to changed conditions

(Futuyma, 1998); often these adjustments have

a specific end point or target in mind. For

instance, to cope with increased frequency of

droughts, a resource manager might lower water

demand levels to a more sustainable level

through increased water-use efficiency. The liveli-

hood, species or ecosystem is stretched but not

fundamentally reconfigured (in the history of

the discipline of biology, such a response might

be considered a Lamarckian model of evolution).

Climate change here is well bounded as a

problem, whose impacts can be known and

solved.

In many cases, the (often) unstated assump-

tions about climate science are made against the

explicit advice of climate modellers (e.g. IPCC,

2008). Moreover, most of these assumptions are

not well founded on ecological science, especially

for freshwater ecosystems (Allen and Ingram,

2002; Poff et al., 2002; Parmesan, 2006, Hall

et al., 2008). Perhaps the most important under-

lying concept behind CCA projects that rely on

most or all of these assumptions is that uncer-

tainty surrounding future climate and emerging

ecosystem impacts can be reasonably constrained

270 Matthews and Wickel


or reduced (Bammer and Smithson, 2008).

Climate change science does not create high-

confidence quantitative projections at local

spatial scales for most climate variables. Worse,

ecology (the basis for most conservation work)

is much more of a historical, descriptive science

like geology than a non-historical, predictive

science such as physics (Hilborn and Mangel,

1997; Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis, 2008). Even if we

knew what the future climate was going to look

like, we are unlikely accurately to capture the

panoply of ecosystem and species impacts.

The majority of climate models typically

describe climate change as gradual shifts in

‘mean’ climate (IPCC, 2001). Such a mode of

climate change differs from instances in

the paleo-climate record that show changes in

the frequency of extreme weather events (the

number of tropical storms, intense precipitation

events, drought severity/duration). Likewise,

past climates frequently changed in abrupt shifts

from one climate ‘plateau’ to another ‘plateau’

(Anderson et al., 2007; CCSP, 2009). Gradual

shifts are only one means of climate transition.

Change is an old theme in evolutionary

biology, however. In Darwinian evolutionary

ecological usage adaptation refers to multi-

generational changes, which implies developing

genetic ‘fitness’ with a species’ environment

over time (i.e. ‘survival of the fittest’). An adap-

tation may begin incrementally but typically

evolves to become very different from some

initial condition (Futuyma, 1998). Adaptation

with a natural history perspective – emphasizing

the environmental setting of an organism – prob-

ably does not have a designated end point;

change is a process, and the direction of change

itself may shift. A resource manager may exper-

iment in series with drought-response systems,

such as a completely new irrigation delivery

network, changes in crop selection, and new

planting and harvesting methods, while also

developing new systems to monitor drought

severity and frequency patterns and creating

new stakeholder institutions to negotiate for

reduced flows. Such an approach emphasizes

adaptation as a process extending across decades

or generations, involving experiments and trade-

offs, learning and (certainly) failures. Here,

climate change presents obstacles, but these

targets are both moving and associated with

uncertainty. Viewing adaptation from an evol-

utionary ecological perspective situates CCA

into the broader engagement between humans

and other species with climate over long time-

scales (Diamond, 2004; Fagan, 2008).

Focusing on CCA as a natural process also leads

to an examination of the aspects of climate that are

most likely to be influencing the evolutionary

ecology of non-human species and, by extension,

of human societies, cultures and livelihoods. The

literature on impacts and responses to climate

change has often focused on air temperature, a

trend reinforced by the widespread usage of the

term ‘global warming’. Although temperature is

an important determinant of physical habitat,

the availability and predictability of freshwater

resources is likely to be a far more relevant aspect

of climate to species and humans, natural ecosys-

tems and agriculture (Poff et al., 2002; Parmesan

and Galbraith, 2004). Indeed, we believe that if

carbon is the key target for climate mitigation

work, then freshwater should be the key focus for

CCA, for both terrestrial and aquatic biomes.

Given this assumption, CCA for aquatic species

and humans and most other terrestrial species

will be dominated by the story of impacts on

water quality, water quantity, and the timing of

flows and hydroperiod (Poff et al., 2002; Nilsson

and Renofalt, 2008; Palmer et al., 2008; Poff, 2009).

We wish to advocate here an approach to CCA

that is process based, that realistically accounts

for the high uncertainties associated with the

emerging climate, and that grounds both

species conservation and economic development

in the reality of shifting ecosystem conditions

and qualities. Fundamentally, we are suggesting

that humans be viewed as a species like other

species, which implies that we exist within eco-

logical boundaries and on an evolutionary trajec-

tory. An evolutionary ecological perspective is

not particularly controversial in the context of

conservation biology, but we believe the impli-

cations of this approach have not been effectively

A natural history approach 271


communicated to policymakers or institutions

working in the field of economic development.

As practising scientists, we believe that these per-

spectives have important policy implications for

freshwater resources and the livelihoods depen-

dent on them, given their importance to econom-

ies, ecosystem services and livelihoods. The gap

between conservation and economic develop-

ment must be bridged rapidly for CCA to be suc-

cessful globally and tailored locally. Applying

these assumptions and perspectives to the

natural history (i.e. the environmental setting

and context) of human societies has the potential

to improve the long-term viability and relevance

of economic development.

These issues are not academic or trivial. If CCA

represents a new path for relating human insti-

tutions to ecosystems, then we risk wasting

limited conservation and development resources

unless we adopt the correct approach to our

work. Perhaps most significantly, we risk reducing

the inherent capacity to adapt to climate shifts

(i.e. maladaptation) through climatically un-

sustainable resource management (Pittock and

Dovers, 2009; Pittock, 2009). Here, we focus

on a series of issues about CCA for freshwater

resources from a scientific perspective relevant

to emerging climate change issues in policy,

resource management and sustainable develop-

ment practice: what shifts should occur in conser-

vation and economic development practices in a

CCA context? How do we manage freshwater

resources for a dynamically shifting climate?

What is an appropriate model for successful

CCA projects?

3. Moving beyond stationarity towardsadaptive freshwater management

Until very recently, almost all water resource man-

agement practice has assumed that the best basis

for infrastructure design and management was

captured through the historical record of that

basin’s hydrological variability – an assumption

of ecosystem ‘stationarity’. Many basins, particu-

larly in western Europe and North America, have

long historical records (.100 years) of discharge

based on monitoring stations. But the basic

assumption that recent knowledge served as an

effective guide to the future was not widely ques-

tioned. More recently, stationarity has been

declared ‘dead’ as a result of human-induced

climate change (Milly et al., 2008).

While climate models are reasonably good at

describing and predicting air temperature

trends, many other climate variables do not

have similar levels of confidence (Milly et al.,

2005; Nohara et al., 2006). The analysis of histori-

cal trends and projections from circulation

models suggest that some regional climate

regimes are shifting into new states that are sub-

stantially different from what have long been

viewed as ‘normal’ climate states. The Murray–

Darling basin in Australia, for instance, is either

in a historically unprecedented drought or in a

new and unfamiliar climate regime, depending

on the author’s perspective (Pittock, 2003). The

rapid loss of tropical glaciers in the Himalayas

(Kehrwald et al., 2008) likewise suggests climate

regimes that are significantly different for

humans and other species in these regions. In

extreme cases, emerging hydrological regimes

may represent so-called ‘no-analog’ climates –

that is, they will be profoundly different from

what has been seen over the past several millen-

nia (Fox, 2007). Thus, the recent past will serve

as an increasingly less reliable guide to the future.

In theory, projections of future climate could

be detailed enough to provide high-confidence

predictions of what regional or local climate will

look like in a particular place at a particular

time. These projections could then guide infra-

structure development. A growing body of tech-

nical literature has been developed to describe

the process of downscaling circulation and

hydrological models from large spatial scales to

guide particular projects and planning. Unfortu-

nately, this route is fraught with risk for planners

and policymakers (Fowler and Wilby, 2007). The

dominant components that govern the water

balance – precipitation and evapotranspiration –

are extremely variable in both space and time.

These components do not show robust,



high-confidence trends within individual circula-

tion models and show even less agreement when

comparing different circulation models. Indeed,

even if the models themselves were very accurate,

we do not know how future economic con-

ditions, technological shifts, or mitigation pol-

icies (‘scenarios’, in IPCC parlance) will alter the

concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmos-

phere. These levels of uncertainty increase sub-

stantially as spatial scale decreases (from

regional to local) or temporal period grows more

distant (farther into the future) (IPCC, 2008).

The lack of certainty represents a serious crisis

for water resource management and planning.

The death of stationarity means the future is

(probably) cloudier and less certain (Milly et al.,

2008). Downscaling models may be inappropri-

ate and generate false confidence. At worst, they

may result in development and conservation prac-

tices that are maladaptive. Developing appropriate

guidelines for their use is challenging (Fowler and

Wilby, 2007; Johnson and Weaver, 2009).

The implications for this crisis in hydrology

and water engineering are profound for those

involved in freshwater-related economic devel-

opment and conservation. Water resource man-

agement institutions and individuals working in

both areas have generally been consumers of

hydrological data, and thus we too have

implicitly assumed that stationarity is alive and

well, whether or not we were aware that we held

that assumption. In response, we can (a)

proceed as if nothing has changed, (b) allow the

lack of clarity and confidence in what we know

about freshwater ecosystems to excuse inaction,

or (c) begin to modify our work in a way that

takes account of climatic and eco-hydrological

uncertainty. This third path represents the ‘new’

element of freshwater climate adaptation relative

to traditional conservation and development.

4. Understanding and constraining climateuncertainty

Conservation biologists and development pro-

fessionals have differed in their approaches to

sustainable resource management: conservation-

ists have attempted to reduce pressures on ecosys-

tems, while development advocates focused on

improving resource allocation equity and effi-

ciency. In many parts of the world, both groups

are in competition for scarce financial resources

and the attention of policymakers and electo-

rates. In the worst cases, ‘conservation’ may

even be focused on excluding resources from

human communities that already exist on a pre-

carious economic cliff. Indeed, human-caused

climate change has the potential to worsen this

relationship. But these divisions have always

been artificial and distracting, and climate

change simply increases the urgency with which

we must reduce conflict.

Instead, we wish to emphasize that climate

change also presents an opportunity to discuss

sustainable resource management in a more hol-

istic way, bringing together opposing groups

and focusing policymakers drawn to concerns

over climate change on a coherent view of

sustainable development (e.g. Ebert et al., 2009).

The priorities from conservation and develop-

ment groups have too often differed even when

they shared the same goals, and climate change

offers a chance to unify our work and make

both perspectives more effective over coming

decades. Ultimately, such a union represents a

means of addressing future-climate uncertainty,

which is the common enemy of all. A natural

history approach suggests a process-oriented

focus that begins with natural systems and

actively depends on human monitoring, flexi-

ble management and a dynamic relationship

between economies and ecosystems.

In a perfect world, the ideal goal of CCA would

be to anticipate what impacts will happen in par-

ticular localities at particular times to particular

species or livelihoods. This goal is threatened by

the difficulty of anticipating impacts, across at

least three levels of uncertainty:

1. variables of climate in model projections esti-

mating future climate, which are used to esti-

mate . . .



2. . . . inflows and outflows for freshwater ecosys-

tems in model projections estimating future

impacts on freshwater ecosystems, which are

used to estimate . . .

3. . . . synergistic impacts between such factors as

climate change, development trajectory and

freshwater ecosystems.

Levels 2 and 3 form the primary basis for develop-

ing most CCA plans (e.g. Williams et al., 2008),

but they are also the levels most burdened with

high levels of uncertainty.

These models can be developed generally using

two approaches: an analysis of climate trends at a

particular locality, or downscaled circulation

models and associated eco-hydrological models.

Trend analyses are normally a robust means of

predicting short-term impacts at local scales, but

for statistical power they require several decades

of reliable data, which is often elusive. The appli-

cability of trend analyses over multi-decadal

timescales is probably low. The levels of uncer-

tainty for circulation models are even higher for

‘watery’ variables, such as the seasonal timing of

precipitation, the amount of precipitation for a

particular region, or whether that precipitation

will fall in liquid or frozen forms. Relative to

air temperature variables, precipitation and

evapotranspiration variables are extremely diffi-

cult to determine in long-term circulation

models (Milly et al., 2005; Nohara et al., 2006,

Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008).

Both approaches make numerous assumptions

about how local or regional climate functions. It

is critical for policymakers and non-science devel-

opment staff to recognize that while scientific

models are approximations of real systems, cli-

matic and eco-hydrological models cannot be

downscaled to the functionally local scale with

the confidence necessary for most conservation

and development projects. Thus, while they

may be informative and a guide to action, they

are unlikely to be definitive. The problem is less

of technical or computational challenges than

of high levels of stochasticity and variability in

the behaviour of precipitation in weather and

climate systems. Finally, it is worth reiterating

that project-based work must avoid assuming a

‘new stationarity’, as if climate change is directed

towards some new stable plateau. Human-made

climate change is driving major shifts in fresh-

water ecosystems, giving conservation and devel-

opment practitioners a moving target on a scale

ranging from decades to centuries (IPCC,

2007a,b). A seemingly stable assessment of

water quantity in a particular lake in 2020, for

instance, may not be representative of that lake

a few decades later. And a moving target will be

more difficult to hit.

Placing an unduly high degree of confidence

in such models tends to lead to an emphasis on

responding to some specific set of predicted

impacts on ecosystems or livelihoods – what

could be called ‘impacts thinking’. This approach

is widespread and dominates much of the conser-

vation and economic development discussion

about CCA at this time. Impacts thinking suggests

that CCA strategies can be clearly articulated, that

models are robust and comprehensive, and that

adaptation does not represent a significant shift

in the worldview behind resource management.

Impacts thinking often implies that vulnerability

need only be assessed once.

5. From impacts thinking to adaptationthinking

‘Adaptation thinking’ shifts the focus of CCA

from a particular set of ecosystem or livelihood

impacts to the process of resource management

itself. The challenges to successful CCA for

resource management are developing a pro-

ductive means of responding to impacts uncer-

tainty over time. This task has three major

components:

1. understanding what qualities enable local eco-

systems (and in many cases traditional liveli-

hoods) to autonomously adapt and remain

resilient to climate impacts;

2. understanding how resource management

institutions can facilitate (or at least not

inhibit) these processes;



3. developing the institutional means to antici-

pate and detect processes of climate-driven

change, as well as to implement responses to

realized and potential impacts.

These three components of constraining uncer-

tainty are relatively well known and understood.

Much contemporary hydro-ecological theory, for

instance, focuses on how lakes, rivers and wet-

lands retain ecosystem health (and, for humans,

reliable ecosystem services) such as mitigating

the impacts of surrounding land-use shifts, over-

abstraction of water, restoring geomorphological

structure, and promoting ecological connectivity

within and across ecosystems (Abell, 2002). This

body of knowledge stocks the ‘toolbox’ for CCA.

The ‘tool users’ are the focus of components

2 and 3 – the resource managers, development

institutions and policymakers rather than scien-

tists per se. These two components are also rela-

tively well understood paths: they require that

CCA proceed as a process rather than a single

event and that major decisions (such as flood-

plain restoration, building dams, irrigation infra-

structure or selecting climate-appropriate crops)

are based on a risk assessment basis on the

best-available scientific knowledge. Thus, uncer-

tainty, vulnerability and risk are evaluated con-

tinuously or iteratively. Component 3 becomes

the means for developing robust monitoring

and climate trend and ecosystem impact detec-

tion systems that can re-evaluate the degree of

uncertainty and risk. In other words, high levels

of uncertainty in decision-making processes

suggest that flexibility is the appropriate response

until that uncertainty has been reduced. If water

resources appear to be declining relative to

demand, constructing a new dam may be appro-

priate, but reducing demand through increased

efficiency may be the more flexible route until

more certainty exists about the degree of water

availability shift. After all, in most countries it

would be difficult to tear down a dam once it

has been constructed, much less undo the poten-

tial negative ecosystem consequences of dam

construction and management. In contrast, a

focus on demand should be – at least in theory –

more elastic and less expensive through techniques

such as increasing efficiency, depending on a

wider variety of regional freshwater sources, and

developing drought-management plans. Com-

ponent 3 will also require a strong relationship

between scientific, development and policy

realms so that analytical approaches can balance

model confidence with policy and governance

priorities.

Taken together, adaptation thinking represents

a novel approach to the existing conservation

and economic development work practised glob-

ally. By shifting the focus on CCA from ecosystem

and livelihoods impacts to the process of deter-

mining appropriate resource management, adap-

tation thinking requires policy to ultimately

focus on building effective and adaptive govern-

ance structures and institutions. Water utilities

that can actively monitor and manage through-

out a district become a powerful means of redu-

cing the impacts of droughts on both people

and ecosystems. Agriculture departments that

advocate a basket of less water-intensive crops in

regions with increased precipitation variability

can mitigate the increasing demand of a rapidly

growing population. There can be no doubt that

more dams will be necessary in the future. But

dams may not be the only solution, and they

often do not assist in solving more than a small

number of narrowly defined problems. An over-

dependence on hard ‘concrete’ solutions such as

dams and other capital-intensive infrastructure

to what are really institutional problems may ulti-

mately be undermined by the original problem of

stationarity: can the new infrastructure perform

well enough with a shifting climate in order to

realistically provide a return on the original

investment? In other words, expensive infrastruc-

ture will often be a part of the suite of decisions

contemplated for water-related problems, but

the dilemma of climate uncertainty also means

that the flows may be insufficient to generate

expected levels of electricity, increased evapo-

transpiration may remove large quantities of

‘stored’ water, or dam heights may be incapable

of dealing with increasingly extreme precipi-

tation events. Maintaining flexibility is a



powerful approach to a wide range of

climate-informed decisions over long timescales.

6. Conclusions: Turning climate uncertaintyinto an advantage

Flexibility in and of itself is a useful overarching

theme for CCA. However, flexibility as applied to

a more specific set of principles is more directive

and operationally satisfying when planning new

projects. Based on the experience of the World

Wildlife Fund (WWF) in recent years, we advocate

the following set of concepts for creating

climate-informed sustainable development work:

6.1. Focus on institutional capacity forimplementing and responding to emergingclimate conditions

Too often, infrastructure management has been a

source of maladaptation rather than a tool for

improving CCA processes (Pittock, 2009).

Regional and local water resource management

institutions should, in most cases, be the unit of

focus for both economic development and fresh-

water conservation work (Burton, 1996; see also

Ebert et al., 2009; Gujja et al., 2009; Pereira

et al., 2009). Fundamentally, they must be

capable of developing climate-appropriate pol-

icies and of implementing those policies, such

as working effectively with farmers, irrigation dis-

tricts, fishers and other socio-economic groups

(see Roux et al., 2008). But these institutions

must also move from a model of ‘organizational

stationarity’ to become climate-adaptive insti-

tutions that are capable of detecting changes in

relevant ecosystems, evaluating the appropriate-

ness of their relationship with those ecosystems,

and shifting their behaviour as more effective

models emerge.

6.2. Negotiate responses to extreme weatherand climate variability before crises occur

Globally, climate change is creating more varia-

bility in extreme weather events (Karl and

Knight, 1998; Parmesan et al., 1999; Easterling

et al., 2000; IPCC, 2008). As a result, many

regions are experiencing both more floods and

more droughts, while tropical storm activity is

probably being influenced by climate change as

well. Since climate change may be creating

more severe versions of these than have been

experienced for decades or centuries, existing

emergency management plans may be

inadequate. If current planning focuses on

so-called 100-year floods, for instance, this stan-

dard may be statistically based on the past

century but inaccurate when applied to floods

for the next 10 or 20 years, which will define

a new standard. Drought length and severity

may prove especially challenging in regions

such as the southeastern US when they face

water shortages requiring locally unusual

responses such as rationing. Some of the pain

of previously inexperienced extremes can be

reduced by sound disaster management plan-

ning with policymakers. When disasters do

occur, they represent opportunities to engage

the interest of stakeholders and policymakers

in climate change issues even though they

also present the risk of creating policy that is

reactive rather than thoughtful (Barrios et al.,

2009). However, they also present the risk of

reinforcing inequitable allocations and derailing

development.

6.3. Consider impacts at regional andbasin levels, even when water-managementdecisions are made locally

Unfortunately, eco-hydrological surface, atmos-

pheric or groundwater networks do not normally

align with political boundaries or institutional

zones of influence. Thus, ‘local’ freshwater

issues are rarely local in a hydrological sense

(e.g. see Barrios et al., 2009; Kashaigili et al.,

2009). Without consideration of regional and

basin impacts from local decisions, a problem

that one community has ‘solved’ may in fact

have simply shifted to another community

downstream.



6.4. Develop effective ecosystem andlivelihood monitoring and analysis systems

One of the key assumptions of adaptation think-

ing is that the projections of impacts on eco-

hydrological systems are fraught with high

levels of uncertainty. As a result, accurate and

timely monitoring and detection of shifts in key

variables in water quality, quantity and timing

are not perfect means to capture emerging

trends (especially major state-level shifts), but

they can track gradual shifts and, ideally, help

anticipate tipping points. Such systems need

not be expensive or centrally organized, but

they do need to be standardized, effective and

robust (Pittock, 2009; Yu et al., 2009). They

would need to focus concurrently on climate

impacts and human impacts on water resources

with a clear understanding of their differences

in scale – local, regional, national or inter-

national. They should also be affiliated with insti-

tutions that are capable of analysing trends and

explaining those trends to the stakeholders who

need to use this knowledge.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Jamie Pittock for sponsoring

our paper in this issue, and to our colleagues glob-

ally at WWF who have been an inspiration and

motivation to explore the practical problems of

climate adaptation in a freshwater context.

Note

1. Phenologies that are time- or season-sensitive beha-

viours, such as the onset of blooming or the initiation

or cessation of long-distance bird migration.

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