Adam Blake Bournemouth University The Economic Crisis, Tourism and Climate Change.

Adam BlakeBournemouth University

The Economic Crisis, Tourism and Climate Change

GDP Growth(over previous 12 months)

Stock Markets...

International Tourism

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Another Record Year for World Tourism”

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Start to 2007 Exceeds Forecasts”

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Full Steam Ahead for International Tourism”

Subprime mortgage defaults in the US

First injection of liquidity by central banks ($43bn in the US)

UK government takes over Northern Rock

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“World tourist arrivals: from 800 million to 900 million in two years”

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Demand remains firm despite uncertainties”

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Rapid slowdown of international tourism growth”

US government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lehman Brothers go bankrupt

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“International tourism challenged by deteriorating global economy”

The US enters recession

International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)

Source: UNWTO

“Testing times for international tourism”

The UK (and most of Europe) enters recession

Climate change targets

Climate change targets

The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that

climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?

1990 2005 2012

7% 12%

The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that

climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?

1990 2005 2012

7% 12%

7-8% action still required

4-5% reduction from recession (???)

The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that

climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?

1990 2005 2050

7%87%

83-84% action still required

4-5% reduction from recession (???)

The Green Economy

Short term (e.g. to 2020)•Carbon taxes and emissions trading•High-carbon activities become more expensive•Low-carbon activities set to benefit•Some changes in behaviour

The Green Economy

Short term (e.g. to 2020)•Carbon taxes and emissions trading•High-carbon activities become more expensive•Low-carbon activities set to benefit•Some changes in behaviour

Long term (e.g. 2030 - 2050)

Either:•Technological change (biofuels, green electricity)

Or:•Major lifestyle changes•Substantial costs to carbon

Carbon PricesCurrently trading at around

$20 per tonne CO2

Carbon offsets at between $5 and $29.

Varying projections of prices in the future:

2020: $20 to $40 2050: up to $150 to $2002100: $200 +

Aviation

Tourism and the Green Economy

Short term•Air travel becoming more expensive•Shift towards sustainability as an underpinning•Greater awareness among travellers•Possibly more offsetting

Long term

Either:•Technological change (biofuels in air transport, electric cars)

Or:•Major modal changes

•rail rather than road for long-distance land travel•moves from air to rail where feasible