0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0 12000.0 14000.0 16000.0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 P etajoules actual forecast NGLs Coalbed methane Hydro, wind, and other renewables Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Figure 1 Total energy production in Alberta
actual
Jan 05, 2016
Hydro, wind, and other renewables. forecast. actual. Conventional heavy oil. NGLs. Coalbed methane. Conventional natural gas. Mined and in situ bitumen. Conventional L&M oil. Coal. Figure 1 Total energy production in Alberta. Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2007. actual. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
16000.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Pe
tajo
ule
s
actual forecast
NGLs
Coalbed methaneHydro, wind, and other renewables
Conventional natural gas
Mined and in situ bitumen
Conventional heavy oil
Conventional L&M oil
Coal
Figure 1 Total energy production in Alberta
Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2007
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$US
/bb
l
Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago
0
40
80
120
160
200
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$US
/bb
l
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
$US
/m3
actual forecast
High
Low
Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead
0
40
80
120
160
200
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$Cd
n/b
bl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
$Cd
n/m
3
actual forecast
High
Low
Figure 1.5 2006 Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes
Figure 1.5 2007 average monthly reference prices in Alberta
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cd
n$/
bb
l
Light-medium Heavy Bitumen
100
200
300
400
500
600
Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$C
dn
/gig
ajo
ule
actual forecast high
low
Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$C
dn
/MW
h
actual forecast
67.367.5 67.364.6 63.7
71.6
77.082.5
88.293.5
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Ce
nts
U.S./Cdn Exchange Rate
1.95.24.1
5.5
1.82.9
3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7
6.06.87.67.77.6 7.2 7.2
8.36.8 6.3
0
24
6
810
12
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P
erc
en
tag
e
Real GDP growth Unemployment rate
2.8
2.7
1.01.8
2.5 2.2
1.9 2.22.0 2.2
6.1
4.44.74.2
6.4 5.84.0
6.67.3 5.8
02468
1012
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Inflation rate Prime rate on loans
Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators
Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment
0
20
40
60
80
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
bill
ion
s o
f C
dn
$
Other PublicResidential Coal and metal mining*Conventional oil and gas Oil sands
actual forecast
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers*includes support activities to mining and oil and gas extraction
Figure 3 Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
actual forecast
Non upgraded bitumen
Light-medium
SCO
Pentanes plusHeavy
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
Residential demand Commercial demand Other Alberta demand Alberta gas removals
actual forecast
10.7
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
Figure 4 Total marketable gas production and demand
25% 27% 31% 41% 50%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
19481952
19561960
19641968
19721976
19801984
19881992
19962000
2004
nu
mb
er
of
we
lls d
rille
d
Crude Oil Bitumen* Gas** Other***
Bitumen* - includes producing and evaluation wellsGas** - includes CBM wellsOther *** - includes unsuccessful, service, and suspended wells
Figure 5 Drilling Activity in Alberta, 1948-2007
Figure 6 Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price
0
100
200
300
400
1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
tho
ud
sa
nd
cu
bic
me
tre
s p
er
da
y
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Cd
n$
/cu
bic
me
tre
Alberta Production Alberta Crude Oil Price
Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook
EUB Prorationing Plan (restricted production)
Major Oil Field Discoveries1947 – Leduc1948 – Redwater1949 – Golden Spike1952 – Bonnie Glen1953 – Pembina1957 – Swan Hill1959 – Judy Creek1959 – Swan Hill South1965 - Rainbow
Major Events Affecting Price1973 – Oil Embargo1979 – Iranian Revolution1980 – Iran / Iraq War1986 – OPEC Crumbles1990 – Gulf War1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis2001 – 9 / 112003 – Iraq War
1938 - Petroleum and Natural Gas ConservationBoard (EUB) created to enforce productionstandards
Export Pipelines1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge)1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line
Figure 7 Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price
Cd
n$/
cub
ic m
etre
Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup Syncrude
Startup
Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup
0
50
100
150
1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
tho
usa
nd
cu
bic
e m
etre
s p
er d
ay
Mined Bitumen SCO Production
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
SCO Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
tho
usa
nd
cu
bic
met
res
per
day
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
In Situ Production Bitumen Price
Cold Lake Pilot Production Cold Lake Phases 1-6 Cold Lake Phases 7-13
Shell Peace River Startup
First SAGD ProductionAEC (EnCana) Foster Ck.
Amoco (CNRL)Wolf Lake &Primrose Startup
Figure 8 Alberta in situ bitumen production and price
Cd
n$
/cu
bic
me
tre
s
Figure 9 Historical natural gas production and price
0
50
100
150
200
250
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
bill
ion
cu
bic
met
res
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$Cd
n/G
J
Gas production Alberta plant gate price
Gas prices as a by-product of oil production. Price less than replacement cost
Arbitration awardsprice increase
Regulated gas pricetied to oil prices.
Surplus built up
Price deregulation
Surplus gas drivesdown prices
PGT expansion
Late 1998: Northern Border/TCPL expansion 2000: Alliance Pipeline
Hurricanes Katerina and Ritahit U.S. Gulf Coast
Foothills Pipe Lines built for gas exports to California and the mid-western U.S.
1956: TransCanada Pipelinesbuilt to take Alberta gas to central Canada and the U.S. after debate over its charter in Parliament
0
5
10
15
20
25
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Inven
tory
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
US
$/t
on
ne
Gas Processing Plants Oil Sands Plants FOB Vancouver (US$/tonne)
Figure 10 Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1882 1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
mill
ion
tonn
es
Subbituminous Bituminous Thermal Bituminous Metallurgical
1898
– E
xpan
sion
of r
ailw
ay n
etw
ork
(coa
l and
oil
fired
ste
am e
ngin
es)
and
grow
th o
f pop
ulat
ion
1952
– B
egin
ning
of c
hang
e to
die
sel-e
lect
ric tr
ains
1960
– S
team
rail
era
ends
Late
1960
’s –
Beg
inni
ng o
f exp
orts
to J
apan
for s
teel
indu
stry
1970
’s –
incr
ease
in c
oal-f
ired
elec
tric
gen
erat
ion
1950
’s –
Cru
de o
il an
d na
tura
l gas
repl
ace
coal
as
ener
gy s
ourc
e of
cho
ice
Coal remained “King Coal” until huge reservoirsof crude oil and natural gas were discovered
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
$ p
er t
on
ne
Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal
Figure 11 Historical coal production and priceAustralian-Japan contract price for thermal coal (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE)
Late
199
0’s
– m
ine
clos
ures
an
d re
duce
d co
al e
xpor
ts
due
to d
epre
ssed
coa
l pric
es
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
106 m
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
bill
ion
barr
ells
In Situ Mineable Total
Figure 2.2 Remaining established reserves under active development
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Perc
en
tag
e
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus SCO & bitumen
Figure 2.8 Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
20
40
60
80
100
Producing Wells Production
Figure 2.9 Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells
Pro
du
cti
on
(1
03 m
3 /d
)
Figure 2.10 In situ bitumen production by oil sands area (OSA)
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
103 m
3 /d
Cold Lake OSA
Athabasca OSA
Peace River OSA
Figure 2.11 In situ bitumen production by recovery method
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
103 m
3 /d
Primary Production
CSS Production
SAGD Production
Experimental Production
Figure 2.12 Alberta crude bitumen production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
Surface mining
In situ
actual forecast
Figure 2.13 Alberta synthetic crude oil production
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
100
200
300
400
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
Synthetic crude oil
actual forecast
Figure 2.16 Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
mill
ion
tonn
es
Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory
Figure 2.17 Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
Alberta demand (mainly SCO)
actual forecast
SCO removals from Alberta
Nonupgraded bitumen removals
from Alberta
Figure 3.1 Remaining established reserves of crude oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
10
6 m3
Heavy
Light-medium
Figure 3.2 Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
10
6 m3
Additions Revisions
Figure 3.3 Annual changes to waterflood reserves
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
106 m
3
New waterflood Waterflood revisions
Figure 3.4 Distribution of oil reserves by size
Remaining reserves
(103m3)
Total number of pools
(103m3)
Initial reserves
(103m3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Init
ial e
sta
blis
he
d r
es
erv
es
(1
06 m3 )
Average Median
Figure 3.5 Oil pool size by discovery year
Figure 3.7 Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400R
eser
ves
(10
6 m3 )
Initial established reserves Remaining established reserves
Figure 3.9 Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Cumulative production (106 m3)
Rem
aini
ng e
stab
lishe
d oi
l res
erve
s (1
06 m
3 )
Year 1970
Figure 3.14 Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
10
3 m3 /d
ay PSAC 8
PSAC 7
PSAC 5
PSAC 3
PSAC 4
PSAC 2
PSAC 1
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Nu
mb
er o
f wel
ls
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
03 m
3 /d)
Producing wells Production
Figure 3.15 Total crude oil production and producing wells
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+
Production category (m3/d)
Nu
mb
er
of
we
lls
0
40
80
120
160
200
m3 /d
Producing wells Average rate
Figure 3.17 Crude oil well productivity in 2007
Figure 3.18 Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year
% of totalproduction from oil wells
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pro
du
cti
on
(1
03 m
3 /d)
Pre-1998 20072006
20052004
20022003
20012000
19981998
10%
47%
6%
4%
2%3%
4%
5%
6%
6%
8%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
tho
us
an
d b
arr
els
pe
r d
ay
Figure 3.19 Comparison of crude oil production
Texas onshore
Louisiana onshore
Alberta crude oil
Figure 3.20 WTI crude oil price and well activity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Nu
mb
er
of
we
lls
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
US
$/b
bl
Wells placed on production WTI @ Chicago
actual forecast
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Pro
duct
ion
(10
3 m3 /d
)
actual forecast
Figure 3.21 Alberta daily production of crude oil
Heavy
Light-medium
Figure 3.22 Capacity and location of Alberta refineries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Imperial Edmonton
Petro-Canada Edmonton
Shell Scotford
Husky Lloydminster
Parkland Bowden
Ref
iner
y ca
pac
ities
(m3 /d
)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
actual forecast
Figure 3.23 Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil
Crude oil removals from Alberta
Alberta demand
Figure 3.24 Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
103 m
3 /d
actual forecast
Non upgraded bitumen
Light-medium
SCO
Pentanes plusHeavy
Figure 3.25 Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus SCO & bitumen
actual forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
Figure 4.6 Coalbed methane production forecast from CBM wells
actual forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
109
m3
Additions Production
Figure 5.1 Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
109 m
3
Figure 5.2 Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
109 m
3
New Development Revisions
Figure 5.3 New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves
Figure 5.5 Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size
Remaining reserves
(109m3)
Total number of pools
(106m3)
Initial reserves
(109m3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1965 196819711974 1977198019831986 198919921995 199820012004
Esta
blis
hed
reserv
es (106 m
3 )
Average Median
Figure 5.6 Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
UpperCretaceous
LowerCretaceous
Jurassic Triassic Permian-Belloy Mississippian UpperDevonian
MiddleDevonian
109 m
3
Initial marketable reserves Remaining marketable reserves
Figure 5.7 Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
109 m
3
Figure 5.8 Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas
Sweet natural gas
Sour natural gas
25
50
60
9040
35
30
10
100
35
15
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Methane Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus
Per
cent
age
of c
ompo
nent
Removed at field plants Removed at straddle plants Marketable gas
Figure 5.9 Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components
Figure 5.11 Conventional gas ultimate potential
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
109 m
3
Ultimate potential based on 2004 study
Remaining reserves
Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
UpperCretaceous
LowerCretaceous
Jurassic Triassic Mississippian Devonian
Gas
in p
lace
(10
9 m3 )
Ultimate potential Discovered gas in place
Figure 5.13 Conventional gas in place by geological period
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Num
ber o
f wel
ls
Drilled Connected
Figure 5.15 Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected
Figure 5.18 Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
109 m
3
PSAC 6
PSAC 4
PSAC 5
PSAC 2
PSAC 3
PSAC 1
Gas from oil wells
PSAC 7
PSAC 8
% of totalproduction
2%
4%3%
11%
4%
20%
41%
6%
9%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
09 m3 )
Producing wells Production
Figure 5.19 Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+
Production category (103m3/d)
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
100
200
300
400
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
03 m3 /d
)
Producing wells Average rate
Figure 5.22 Natural gas well productivity in 2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pro
du
ctio
n (109 m
3 )
Pre - 1998
20072006
20052004
20022003
20012000
1999
1998
Gas from oil wells
Figure 5.23 Raw gas production by connection year
% of totalproduction from gas wells
3
Connection year
3
4
26
9
7
11
10
16
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
109 m
3
Sour Sweet
Figure 5.24 Raw gas production of sweet and sour gas
0
5
10
15
20
25
1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Tcf
Figure 5.25 Comparison of raw natural gas production
Texas onshore
Louisiana onshore
Alberta
US total production
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pro
du
ctivity (103 m
3 /d)
AlbertaAlberta excluding PSAC Area 3PSAC Area 3 (Southeastern Alberta)
Figure 5.26 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta
Figure 5.27 Alberta natural gas well activity and price
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Nu
mb
er o
f wel
ls
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$Cd
n/G
J
New well connections Alberta plant gate price
actual forecast
Figure 5.28 Conventional marketable gas production
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
actual forecast
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
Figure 5.29 Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
Process gas from upgrading bitumen Gas from bitumen wells
actual forecast
Figure 5.30 Total gas production in Alberta
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109m
3
Conventional marketable gas Coalbed methane
Process gas from upgrading bitumen Gas from bitumen wells
actual forecast
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
106 m
3
2005 2006 2007
Figure 5.31 Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
Figure 5.34 Alberta marketable gas demand by sector
Reprocessing plant shrinkage
Transportation
Electricity generation
Other industrial
Industrial - petrochemical
Industrial – oil sands
Residential
Commercial
actual forecast
0
100
200
300
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
109 m
3
Figure 5.35 Historical volumes “available for permitting”
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
actual forecast
Mining and Upgrading
In Situ
In Situ Cogeneration
Mining and Upgrading Cogeneration
Figure 5.36 Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations
Figure 5.37 Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
actual forecast
Purchased gas
Produced gas from bitumen
Process gas from upgrading*
* Does not included process gas for electricity generation.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
actual forecast
Process Gas for Mining/Upgrading
Produced Gas from Bitumen Wells for In situ Recovery
Purchased Gas for In situ Recovery
Purchased Gas forElectricity Cogeneration
Purchased Gas for Mining/Upgrading
Process Gas for Electricity Cogeneration
Figure 5.38 Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil
Sands Production
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
109 m
3
Residential demand Commercial demand Other Alberta demand Alberta gas removals
actual forecast
10.7
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
Figure 5.39 Total marketable gas production and demand
25% 27% 31% 41% 50%
Figure 6.1 Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production
0
30
60
90
120
150
Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes Plus
Liq
uid
vo
lum
e (106 m
3 )
Reserves Annual production
Figure 6.2 Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Esta
blis
hed
reserv
es (106 m
3 )
Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus
Figure 6.4 Ethane Supply and Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ethane SupplyAlberta Demand*Potential supply from conventional gasPotential supply from oil sands off-gas
103 m
3 /d
Actual Forecast
Figure 6.5 Propane supply from natural gas and demand
0
10
20
30
40
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Supply Alberta Demand*
103 m
3 /d
Actual Forecast
* excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.6 Butanes supply from natural gas and demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Supply Alberta Demand*
103 m
3 /d
Actual Forecast
* excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.7 Pentanes plus supply from natural gas and demand for diluent
0
10
20
30
40
50
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Supply Alberta Demand*
103 m
3 /d
Actual Forecast
* excludes solvent flood volumes
Demand met by alternative sources and types of diluent
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
106 t
actual forecast
Figure 7.1 Sources of sulphur production
Sour gas
Refining and upgrading
0
2
4
6
8
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
106 t
Figure 7.2 Sulphur production from gas processing plants in Alberta
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
103
t
Syncrude Suncor Shell
Figure 7.3 Sulphur production from oil sands
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Australia Brazil China NewZealand
SouthAfrica
Others
103
t
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Figure 7.4 Canadian sulphur offshore exports
Figure 7.5 Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
106
t
Alberta demand
Removed from Alberta
Stockpile
actual forecast
Stockpile
WithdrawalTotal Demand
Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s
Subbituminous
Thermal bituminous
Metallurgical bituminous
Figure 8.2 Alberta marketable coal production
0
5
10
15
20
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Th
ou
san
d M
W
Coal Natural gas Hydroelectric Other
actual forecast
Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity
0
25
50
75
100
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Th
ou
san
d G
Wh
Coal Natural gas Hydroelectric Other
actual forecast
Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation
Figure 9.3. Alberta electricity transfers
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GW
h
Deliveries Receipts
Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector
0
25
50
75
100
2017
AIL
0
25
50
75
100
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Th
ou
san
d G
Wh
Industrial Industrial on site Direct connect
Commercial Residential Agriculture
actual forecast
9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand* Industrial – oil sands historical data on electricity demand was estimated using an assumption of 10 kWh/bbl for thermal in situ oil sands projects that do not operate cogeneration units.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Th
ou
sa
nd
GW
h
actual forecast
Electricity Generation
Demand
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