Activities till TIF 2012

ACTIVITIES TILL TIF 2012

Milan, 08 June 2012

IDEA ProjectTransport dialogue and interoperability between the EU and its

neighbouring countries and Central Asian countries

Project funded by European Union DG DEVCO

Ashraf HamedIDEA Project

TRACECA Route Attractiveness indeX (TRAX)

2

Future development of TRAX

Intermodal Index

Road IndexHas been developed in

2010 and will be updated in 2011

Rail Index

Will be developed in 2011

TRAX will be further development to Intermodal Index TRAX by including the railway born transport links along the TRACECA

routes and the Trans-Russian routes.

For intermodal index calculation will be applied a single methodological approach for all its constituent parts: road and

rail transport indexes

Calculation EquationsRoute Stretch’s Index =

F(Ci x αc + TT i x Vt x αt + Ri x αr + Sr x αs )Route Node’s Index =

F (Cij x αc + TTij x Vt x αt + Rij x αr)

Where as : • Ci = Observed Transport cost on Stretch i• α c/t/r/s = Weight of costs / time / reliability / Security in the

route choice decision making, obtained from the freight operators interviews

• TTi = Observed Average Transport time on Stretch i• Vt = Value of Time for freight transport per cargo• Sr = Perceived security and safety of Cargo in specific Country*50 % Point in statistics; means 50 % of data mass are below and

50 % above this point • Index is adjsted on KM based for comparison reasons

i=1….N (N stretches in total)J=1…M (M stops in total)

TRAX routes

5

1. Trans Russian Route2. Trans Caucasus Route3. Trans Turkey / Iran Route

TRAX 2010

INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST Reliability Safety/Security

30321255

6767 6373

72

6358

1896

77768839

76

8169

2994

11243 10849

146

72 76

146

TRAX INDEXINDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILIT

YSAFETY/

SECURITY

TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 3032 1255 6767 6373 72

TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 6358 1896 7776 8839 76TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 8169 2994 11243 10849 146

RAIL TRAXTRAX illustrates the attractiveness of a route from the

perspective of transport operators: 2010: Road / Martime TRAX methodology and calculation2011: Inter-Modal TRAX by adding Rail born transport

The TRAX for rail transport will be calculated in analogy to Road/Maritime TRAX,

The weighing of the criteria must also reflect the priorities and weights considered by the transport operators

TIME COST

RELIABILITY SAFETY

RAIL TRAXDATA COLLECTION

(1) ROAD born information through IRU drivers’ Journals

(2) RAIL information through three sources• Questionnaire survey and Interviews with the

national railway administrations

• Freight Forwarders - to provide national data on individual countries on route lines, tariff scale, costs and time on stretches and nodes

• Freight Forwarders Interviews to obtain real data of real shipments on particular routes

RAIL TRAXIntegrated approach to data collection at the national and international level

Each stretch or node gets three types of assessment:

• In terms of national railway administration• In terms of national rail transport operator / freight

forwarders• In terms of international rail transport operator / freight

forwarders.

Data collection, definition of criteria weights, formation and segmentation of the route will be made in cooperation with transport companies and operators by questionnaires and interviews.

2011 - Intermodal Index TENTATIVE WORKING PLAN

2011 Activity

June, Elaboration of the Questionnaires and Data gathering

July/ August

Carry out the interviews with 1) the national railway administrations / companies and 2) operators / companies / freight forwarders, providing services of rail transportation. IRU cooperation and Obtaining Journals

August Data analysisCalculation of the index

October Presentation of the results

Cooperation with the World Bank• The world Bank is setting a unified approach for

PERFORMANCE OF LAND TRANSPORT CORRIDORS LINKING EUROPE AND ASIA THROUGH CENTRAL ASIA

• The world Bank has expressed its interest in the TRACECA tools (GIS / Model and TRAX)

• TRAX methodology will be added to the analysis and adopted as the leading method

• Exchange of information on Driver’s Journals and Rail information

• Establish work group with World Bank team to adopt TRACECA methodology and improvements (Partnering with IRU). First meeting is scheduled June 27, in DC.

TRACECA Training Programme

TRAINING APPROACH TRAINEES APPROACH

TRACECA Transport Forecast model

TRACECA Appraisal Tool

TRACECA Investment Manual

MON-

FRI

List of nominees

per country

Trainees ProfileWork scope and position

Linguistic capabilities Logistics GroupingMaximum Number

List of Participants /

Location

E-Learning Platform

Methods of Delivery • Starting Mondays with arrival of the participants and ending on

Friday • Training will be held in English with Russian translation where

necessary.• For modeling

– Deploying local tutors will ensure the understanding quality and close supervision for non-English speakers

– So far we secured trainers from Kazakhstan and Turkey. – The local trainers will receive a special training prior to the course start

(if necessary)– Hands on training with computers with VISUM

• For appraisal– Each of the 4 appraisal training sessions, the content will be tailored and

derived from the countries’ requirements. • The number of attendees will be approx. 15 participants. • All training focus on interactive work with TRACECA tools • A certificate of attendance will be issued to candidates who

attended 100% of the course hours. • Additional (Continuing Education) – E-IDEA

Model Training Participants (distribution)Country Nomi. Accepted rejected backupAzerbaijan 7 3 3 1Armenia 4 3 0 1Bulgaria 9 6 3 0Georgia 8 4 4 0Kazkhstan 14 9 5 0Kyrgyzstan 6 5 1 0Moldova 3 2 1 0Romania 3 2 0 1Tajikistan 4 2 2 0Turkey 17 7 4 6Ukraine 20 11 3 6Ukraine 16 13 3 0Uzbekistan 1 1 0 0TOTAL 112 68 29 15

  Venue Countries Number of Trainees

1 AZERBAIJANAzerbaijan 3Kyrgyzstan 5Uzbekistan 1

    Georgia 2

    Total 11

2 BULGARIABulgaria 6Moldova 2Romania 2

    Total 10

3 KAZAKHSTANKazakhstan 9Tajikistan 2

    Total 114 TURKEY Turkey 7

    Georgia 2

    Total 95 UKRAINE Ukraine (KIEV) 11

    Armenia 3

    Total 1 146   Ukraine (ODESSA) 13

    Total 2 13

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Appraisal Training Participants (distribution)Country Nomi. Accepted rejected backupAzerbaijan 5 5 0 0Armenia 5 5 0 0Bulgaria 9 3 6 0Georgia 1 1 0 0Kazkhstan 11 7 4 0Kyrgyzstan 3 3 0 0Moldova 3 3 0 0Romania 5 5 0 0Tajikistan 4 4 0 0Turkey 8 6 2 0Ukraine 18 14 4 0Uzbekistan 3 3 0 0TOTAL 75 59 16 0

  Venue Countries Number of Trainees

1 AZERBAIJANAzerbaijan 5Moldova 3Uzbekistan 3

    Tajikistan 4

    Total 15

2 KAZAKHSTANKazakhstan 7Armenia 5

Kyrgyzstan 3

    Total 153 TURKEY Turkey 6

Romania 5

    Georgia 1Bulgaria 2

    Total 144 UKRAINE Ukraine 14

    Bulgaria 1

    Total 15

AP

PR

AIS

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ScheduleARRIVE       LEAVE

Mo Tu Wed Thu Fr

Appraisal Turkey Ankara 1 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun

Model Turkey Ankara  1 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun

Model Bulgaria Sofia  2 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 8-Jul

Model Ukraine 1 ODESSA 3 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug

Appraisal Ukraine 1 Kiev 2 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep 2-Sep

Model Ukraine 2 Kiev 4 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep

Model Kazakhstan Almaty  5 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct

Appraisal Kazakhstan Almaty 3 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct

Appraisal Azerbaijan Baku  4 31-Oct 1-Nov 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov

Model Azerbaijan Baku  6 7-Nov 8-Nov 9-Nov 10-Nov 11-Nov

Model Training• Training sessions will cover the following topics

– Introduction into transportation planning fundamentals;– Using the VISUM Software, understanding VISUM and its basic

functions;– Working with the TRACECA model (updating input data /

understanding results / adding new infrastructure / understanding VISUM outputs / export of data);

– Towards a national model • E-learning (e-IDEA)

– Use of TRT / Dornier IDEA e-learning platform – It will hold the training sessions, hand outs and excercises– Secured login for users– Local tutors for support – local tutors will be a reference point for the trainees to come

back with questions.

Status of the Model• On 9th/10th December 2010, an Experts Group Meeting.• Agreement that active cooperation is needed from the side of the TRACECA

countries in order to improve the base forecast with reference to planned infrastructures

• A revised draft of the TRACECA IDEA Freight Model Development Report has been delivered, including the following updates

• Detailed description of the forecast modelling approach inclusive of the used forecast land use data, forecast assumptions and infrastructure measures;

• Presentation of generated forecast demand and analysis of the assignment results with a comparison to the base year model results

• All countries have received a VISUM license key, to work with the model as test for three months. Also an updated model

• Update the model needs Future networks, work is required from your experts• Questionnaire was sent and only 2 countries replied. • No feed back was received on the socio-economic data.• On-call Meeting of the experts’ group in Kiev was cancelled• Experts’ group will convene again after training• Conversion of the VISUM license

Required Action• Confirm the participants of your country. A

reminder will be sent by IDEA.• Brief trainees that

– they will be the point for providing information for the investment projects, for this cycles and next years.

– They are requested to obtain the update data for the model and provide this information to the member of the experts’ group meeting

– They must provide plausibility check for the model results• PS to hand in the network license • PS is to collect from every country the name and

responsible person for the new VISUM license

Appraisal Training

Training sessions will cover the following topics Scope of cost benefits analysisData needsSteps in costs benefit analysisBasic calculationsUser benefitsProducer benefitsPerformance indicatorsTransport externalities what they are how to measure themDistribution of costs and benefits and cross border projectsTransport appraisal optimism and risk analysisFrom economic and financial appraisal

Part 1 Cost benefit analysis and socio-economic feasibility

Appraisal Training

Training sessions will cover the following topics Frameworks for the provision and financing of transport infrastructureForms of private sector participationSources of financingRisk sharing schemes in the different procurement modelsRisk allocation strategiesFunding of infrastructureMethods and tools for project developmentInfrastructure procurement from the view of different stakeholders

Part 2 Project development and financing

Appraisal Training

The training will make large use of case studies to underline the theoretical background and to provide evidence of the different issues and steps in the appraisal

Training will be divided in sessions, each one approximately of half a day and group work will be organised at the end of each session

Case studies will cover different transport modes, road, rail, ports, intermodal centres

Participants will be requested to carry out exercises and to organise discussions

e learning is not foreseen

TRACECA web site

Required actions• All countries received training on web content • Countries’ Web sites are inhomogeneous. Some

are dense and other have scares information.• Minimum content should be defined by the PS • Route and border crossing information must be

added to the web site. This is what the transport industry misses on TRACECA route.

• Web content on the site must be optimized for the transport industry as target audience of the site.

• News on the web site must be like news. PS staff shall receive training based on the EU communication training methodology.