Action plan for changing course in agriculture

Hans R. Herren

President www.millennium-institute.orgPresident www.biovision.ch

Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.orgCoordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter

100% agroecology will nourish the world!

Action plan for changing course in agriculture Swedish Society forNature Conservation (SSNC)April 25, 2012 Stockholm

Who said that we need to change course?:

The IAASTD Reports…and then others, in different ways (www.agassessment.org)

Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countries

Multi-disciplinary

Multi-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports

IAASTD: Key findings

1. We feed only 6 out of 7 billion people with the present food system (but have enough for 14 bn)….in addition, we count 1.5 billion obese and 300 million diabetes 2 cases

2. The industrial food system uses some 10 Kcal to produce one, energy problem

3. The industrial and conventional food system (incl. the traditional systems are a major part of the CC problem

4. Soil degradation, water shortages & biodiversity loss underlie food security, natural resource problem

5. Jobs, Industrial agriculture emptied the rural areas and multidisciplinary research labs, social problems

6. Unfair trade works against the small-scale famers and the poor, economic and social problems

Business as usual is not an option

Different intervention levels (all with multistakeholder approaches) for planning (it’s a system), implementation and monitoring the new paradigm (multifunctional agriculture)

1. Policies (informed via assessments, i.e., IAASTD, implementation via policies,.i.e., AU-EOA Initiative; land reforms, etc..)

2. Institutions (reformed to support agroecological agriculture, i.e., reassign perverse subsidies)

3. R&D (in support of the new paradigm, with emphasis on women, resilience

Actors: Producers, Suppliers / Buyers, Processors, Consumers, Policy Makers

What’s the plan forward?

Food security…..is“a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical,

social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO)

……is built on:

• food availability: sufficient quantities of nutritious food are available on a consistent basis

• food access: nutritious food is affordable for all people

• food stability: Not bumper yields, but stable yields as expected from resilient system are needed

• food use: knowledge of basic nutrition, access to adequate water and sanitation, safe processing and handling

…….and implies multifunctionality

IAASTD: Showing the right road1. “a fundamental shift in AKST and the connected • agri-food system policies; • institutions; • capacity development; and • investments”2. Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable /agro-ecological / organic agri-culture3. An agriculture that addresses the multifunctionality and resilience needs of the small-scale and family farmers (social & economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership, empowerment, women), quality job creation (Edu at all levels); 4. Need to use a systemic and holistic approach (basic ecological principles); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the solution to hunger, poverty, health, natural resources conservation, CC5. Good governance and new Institutions

Ecological agriculture as the main solution: Multifunctionality paradigm for sustainable agriculture and food system

sustainable

viable

livableequitable

Thinking in system: how does it work

Encouraging a wider genetic base in agriculture…trees, fruits, grains, vegetables, lost crops, animals

for nutrition and health, cultural diversity, incomes, pest control, resilience to climate change

Changing behavior: consumption defines production

Barilla, 2011

• Improve and expand extension services (ITC)

• Introduce capacity building (ITC)

• Agriculture is very localized = local solutions

• AU Ecological/Organic Ag initiative (Head of State)

Green way ahead: is knowledge intensive

SustainableUn-sustainable

Low

pro

ducti

vity

Hig

h p

rodu

ctivi

tyTransforming: ….. sustainable, organic, agroecological, resilient, equitable agriculture

Transformation…..the never ending debate…and the image problem…..

• Can organic/agroecological based agriculture feed the planet? (and who can afford it?)

(wrong question, as one should ask:

• Does the present industrial / conventional (green revolution) model which is being promoted?

• How can we nourish 9.5 billion people; eradicate hunger and poverty; assure rural livelihood (jobs); eradicate inequities; assure good nutrition and health; and do all this in a socially, environmentally and economically sustainable manner (back to the top)

Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of GDP, Stern report); 0.1% and 0.16% of GDP invested in agriculture for:

- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective bio-pesticide use)- Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access to small scale mechanization)- R&D (research in soil science and agronomy, crop improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, and more)- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas, efficient processing, marketting)

Can it be done?: scenarios from the UNEP GER ag chapter 2011

Forest land

Natural crop yield per ha

Agriculture production

Soil quality

Effective crop yield per ha

Population

Harvested area

Water stress

GDP

Chemical fertilizer

Organic fertilizer

Agriculture capital

Fertilizer use

Water demand

R&D

Sustainable mgmt.

Pre harvest losses

Oil price

Agriculture labor

Water efficiency

The forward looking scenarios: Approach and methodology

Yes…..(UNEP GER Report – 2011), Investing 0.1% or 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year

Year 2011 20112050Scenario Unit Baseline Green

BAU

Ag production Bn US$/Yr 1,921 2,8522,559

Crops Bn US$/Yr 629 996 913

Employment M People 1,075 1,7031,656

Soil quality Dmnl 0.92 1.03 0.73

Ag water use KM3/Yr 3,389 3,2074,878

Harvested land Bn ha 1.20 1.26 1.31

Deforestation M ha/Yr 16 7 15

Calories p/c/day forconsumption Kcal/C/D 2,081 2.5242.476

The change that is needed will first start with each of us…

….then as a group of like minded we need to:

• take a medium and long, holistic, multifunctional and systemic view in addressing multiple challenges • invest more in (agro-ecological -research, -extension, -education • focus on the finality of agriculture and food systems: health, equity and cultural diversity • support changes in governance (be active in policy design to end perverse subsidies and favor a true food pricing policy)• Invest in enabling conditions

……and yes it can be done, so lets do it NOW

In conclusion

From Stockholm 72 to Rio 92 to Jo‘burg 02 to Rio 12 (Rio+20)

92: Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEA)

• (UNFCCC); (CBD); (UNCCD)

02: IAASTD11: IPBES

12: Governance, Institutions and Green Economy(IAASTD implementation via CFS)

You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem

Albert Einstein

Thank you www.millennium-institute.org &

http://www.biovision.ch

IS NOW