1 Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through Migration James P. Smith Liam Delaney
Feb 24, 2016
1
Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through
Migration
James P. SmithLiam Delaney
2
Goal of the Research
• International migration as a pathway to acquiring Human Capital for succeeding generations
• Study international migration to the United States from the important European sending countries over the last two centuries
– England, Germany, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Scotland, Italy, and Poland
– 70% of European migrants to the US between 1850 and 1970
3
Scale of European Migration to the United States
Time period Total(000)
% European of Total Migrants
1851-1870 4,913 92.01871-1890 8,058 87.01891-1910 12,483 93.61911-1930 9,843 68.91931-1950 1,563 61.91951-1970 5,836 42.31971-1990 11,831 12.7
4
European Sending Countries as % of European Migrants to USA
Time UK Irish Germans Scandi-navian Italians Polish
All Six as % of Total
European
1851-70 22.8 29.9 38.5 3.3 0.05 0.01 95.1
1871-90 19.3 15.6 31.0 14.1 5.2 0.1 85.0
1891-10 6.8 6.2 7.2 7.5 23.1 0.1 50.9
1911-30 10.0 5.3 12.5 12.9 23.0 1.4 65.1
1931-50 17.7 3.2 35.2 3.8 13.0 2.6 75.5
1951-70 16.9 3.3 27.1 1.6 16.2 2.6 67.7
1971-90 17.7 3.1 9.0 NA 10.8 9.4 50.0
5
Sources of Data—What do we need to know
• Education – Years of Schooling Completed
• Immigrant Generations – 1st (immigrants), 2nd (American born children of immigrants), 3rd+ (grandchildren of immigrants), etc., etc.
• Country of Origin or Ethnicity used for 4th plus or 3rd plus
6
Sources of Data
• Decennial Censuses—1940-1970
– Education 1st asked in 1940
• Current Population Surveys (CPS) since 1994
• American Community Survey (since 2000)
• General Social Survey since 1994
– 1st. 2nd. 3rd. 4+ generations
7
Defining the Generations
• 1st Generation = Country of Birth not in USA but in one of these European countries
• 2nd Generation = Born in the USA and a parent born outside the USA and in one of these European countries
• 3rd Generation+ = Person and Parents Born in USA but claims an European ethnic heritage from these countries
– Or grandparents born in this list of European countries or grandparents born in one of these European countries
8
Data—Possible Sources of Bias
• Mortality Bias with less educated dying sooner
• Exaggeration Bias increasing education over time
• Emigration Bias
• Childhood Immigrant Bias
• Length of Generation Bias
• Cannot eliminate these biases completely, but can mitigate them and access them
– Work is continuing on this
9
Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish MalesYear of Immigrant
Birth First Second Third
1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.911866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.601871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.141876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.481881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.931886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.181891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.581896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.981901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.801906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.671911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.651916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.991921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.921926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.831931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.661936-1940 12.64 13.64 1941-1945 13.22 13.99 1946-1950 13.98 13.91 1951-1955 14.15 13.83 1956-1960 14.10 13.65
10
Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish MalesYear of Immigrant
Birth First Second Third
1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.911866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.601871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.141876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.481881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.931886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.181891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.581896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.981901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.801906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.671911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.651916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.991921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.921926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.831931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.661936-1940 12.64 13.64 1941-1945 13.22 13.99 1946-1950 13.98 13.91 1951-1955 14.15 13.83 1956-1960 14.10 13.65
11
What I do with these numbers?
• Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin
• Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country
• Compute generational gains in education from immigration
12
Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males
1861-18651866-18701871-18751876-18801881-18851886-18901891-18951896-19001901-19051906-19101911-19151916-19201921-19251926-19301931-19351936-19401941-19451946-19501951-19551956-19601961-19651966-19701971-19751976-19801981-1985
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Scandinavian English German Italian
Year of Birth
Educ
ation
13
Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Scandinavian English German Italian
Year of Birth
Educ
ation
14
Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
English Polish Scottish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
ation
15
Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
English Polish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
ation
16
Within Country Heterogeneity- Men
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Irish Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Polish Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Scottish Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
5
10
15
20
English Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
17
Within Country Heterogeneity- Men
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
German Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Scandinavian Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Italian Men
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
18
Within Country Heterogeneity- Women
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Irish Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
Polish Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p9002468
1012141618
Scottish Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p9002468
1012141618
English Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
19
Within Country Heterogeneity- Women
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
4
8
12
16
German Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
5
10
15
20
Scandinavian Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
p10 p25 p50 p75 p900
5
10
15
20
Italian Women
1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985
20
What I do with these numbers?
• Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin
• Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country
• Compute generational gains in education from immigration
21
Gender Difference in Education by Generation—English
Men minus Women
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
First Second Third
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
22
Gender Difference in Education by Generation—German
Men minus Women
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
First Second Third
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
23
Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Italian
Men minus Women
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
First Second Third
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
24
Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Irish
1861-1865
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
First Second Third
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
Men minus Women
25
What I do with these numbers?
• Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin
• Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country
• Compute generational gains in education from immigration
26
Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish MalesYear of Immigrant
Birth First Second Third
1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.911866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.601871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.141876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.481881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.931886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.181891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.581896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.981901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.801906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.671911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.651916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.991921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.921926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.831931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.661936-1940 12.64 13.64 1941-1945 13.22 13.99 1946-1950 13.98 13.91 1951-1955 14.15 13.83 1956-1960 14.10 13.65
27
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866
-1870
1871
-1875
1876
-1880
1881
-1885
1886
-1890
1891
-1895
1896
-1900
1901
-1905
1906
-1910
1911
-1915
1916
-1920
1921
-1925
1926
-1930
1931
-1935
1936
-1940
1941
-1945
1946
-1950
1951
-1955
1956
-1960
-2-101234567
Gain if Migrate
Scandinavian English German Italian
Year of Immigration
Educ
atio
n
28
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Gain if Migrate
English Polish Scottish Irish
Year of Immigration
Educ
atio
n
29
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866-
1870
1871-
1875
1876-
1880
1881-
1885
1886-
1890
1891-
1895
1896-
1900
1901-
1905
1906-
1910
1911-
1915
1916-
1920
1921-
1925
1926-
1930
1931-
1935
1936-
1940
1941-
1945
1946-
1950
1951-
1955
1956-
1960
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Gain if Stay
Scandinavian English German Italian
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
30
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866-1870
1871-1875
1876-1880
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Gain if Stay
English Polish Scottish Irish
Year of Immigration
Educ
atio
n
31
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866
-1870
1871
-1875
1876
-1880
1881
-1885
1886
-1890
1891
-1895
1896
-1900
1901
-1905
1906
-1910
1911
-1915
1916
-1920
1921
-1925
1926
-1930
1931
-1935
1936
-1940
1941
-1945
1946
-1950
1951
-1955
1956
-1960
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Diff = Move-Stay
Scandinavian English German Italian
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
32
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males
1866
-1870
1871
-1875
1876
-1880
1881
-1885
1886
-1890
1891
-1895
1896
-1900
1901
-1905
1906
-1910
1911
-1915
1916
-1920
1921
-1925
1926
-1930
1931
-1935
1936
-1940
1941
-1945
1946
-1950
1951
-1955
1956
-1960
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Diff = Move-Stay
English Polish Scottish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
33
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-1870
1871-1875
1976-1980
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
-101234567
Gain if Migrate
English German Italian Scandinavian
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
34
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-1870
1871-1875
1976-1980
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Gain if Migrate
English Polish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
35
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-
1870
1871-
1875
1976-
1980
1881-
1885
1886-
1890
1891-
1895
1896-
1900
1901-
1905
1906-
1910
1911-
1915
1916-
1920
1921-
1925
1926-
1930
1931-
1935
1936-
1940
1941-
1945
1946-
1950
1951-
1955
1956-
1960
0
1
2
3
4
5
English German Italian Scandinavian
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
Gain if Stay
36
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-1870
1871-1875
1976-1980
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Gain if Stay
English Polish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
37
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-1870
1871-1875
1976-1980
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Diff = Move-Stay
English German Italian Scandinavian
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
38
Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females
1866-1870
1871-1875
1976-1980
1881-1885
1886-1890
1891-1895
1896-1900
1901-1905
1906-1910
1911-1915
1916-1920
1921-1925
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
-1
0
1
2
3
Diff = Move-Stay
English Polish Irish
Year of Birth
Educ
atio
n
39
What can we say about constant migration selection assumption?
• No real data for 19th and early part of 20th century since European data on mean education by birth cohorts almost non-existent over that period
• Theory might help about plausible direction of trends
• For more recent 20th century birth cohorts there are sources of comparable education data in Europe
– This is a work in progress
40
Theory - Basic Selection Model
(i) A iA H iH iw k w k
0 1ii A Hw w
0iii ( ( 1))i H ik w
cost of migrationi
0 10; 1
41
Selection Model—Implications
• As cost of migration goes up, migrants are more positively selected in education
• As income differences between US and sending countries contracts (βo), migrants are more positively selected
42
Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1870- 2000
187018771884189118981905191219191926193319401947195419611968197519821989199620030.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
germanrel italyrel swedenrel ukrel
Year
43
Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1920-2000
19201924
19281932
19361940
19441948
19521956
19601964
19681972
19761980
19841988
19921996
20002004
20080.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
germanrel italyrel swedenrel irelandrel ukrel polandrel
Year
44
Income of European Countries Relative to the United States
1845185118571863186918751881188718931899190519111917192319291935194119471953195919651971197719830.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
germanrel italyrel swedenrel ukrel
Year
45
Income of European Countries Relative to the United States
1895
1898
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
germanrel italyrel swedenrel irelandrel ukrel polandrel
Year
46
What happened to selection movers
• In 19th century in era of unrestricted migration– migration costs probably fell– Income excess of UK fell but no real trends in other
countries until late 19th century• In first part 20th century incomes rose relative to US• In second part of 20th century, relative incomes of Italy
and especially Ireland rose- BUT• international European migrants became supply
restricted and were largely (75%) family related visas (spouses, siblings, parents)
47
Education Selection by Gender
• Compute Education levels in European sending countries by birth cohorts using European General Social Survey education
• Diff- Ed of Migrants – Ed of Stayers by Birth Cohort
48
Male Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Men and Diff between Immigrant
and Stayer Education
England Ireland Germany Italy Poland Scandinavia
Birth Year Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff
1921-1925 10.80 2.58 10.51 0.90 12.01 0.34 8.13 1.45 8.09 2.59 9.42 3.10
1926-1930 11.13 2.57 10.83 1.07 12.12 -0.42 7.33 1.99 9.20 1.87 10.27 2.73
1931-1935 12.01 2.20 10.50 1.83 12.32 0.28 8.52 0.53 9.18 2.78 10.16 3.21
1936-1940 12.55 2.16 11.58 1.06 12.73 0.53 8.54 1.09 10.18 2.50 11.19 2.74
1941-1945 12.25 2.35 11.93 1.29 13.54 -0.37 9.90 0.72 10.59 2.56 12.08 2.62
1946-1950 13.02 1.71 11.83 2.15 13.99 -0.16 10.21 2.00 11.58 2.35 12.64 2.46
1951-1955 13.59 0.95 12.46 1.69 13.95 0.02 12.24 0.27 11.61 2.06 13.28 1.85
1956-1960 14.01 0.39 13.28 0.82 14.07 -0.20 11.37 1.81 12.12 1.54 13.55 1.62
1961-1965 13.77 0.55 13.63 0.35 14.34 -0.47 11.73 1.75 12.55 1.03 13.75 1.49
1966- 1970 13.78 0.96 13.82 0.52 14.35 -0.20 12.90 1.15 12.83 0.77 14.07 1.54
1971-1975 14.34 0.37 14.60 -0.25 14.53 -0.15 13.28 0.92 13.41 0.41 14.57 0.81
1976-1980 14.48 0.04 14.82 -0.75 14.81 -0.55 13.39 0.99 13.37 0.51 14.57 0.74
49
Female Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Women and Diff between
Immigrant and Stayer Education England Ireland Germany Italy Poland Scandinavia
Birth Year Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff
1921-1925 10.71 1.16 10.27 1.22 10.01 1.90 5.21 3.61 7.00 2.76 8.99 2.95
1926-1930 10.74 1.36 10.96 0.68 10.27 1.67 6.85 1.66 7.10 2.89 8.81 3.63
1931-1935 11.30 1.30 10.86 1.08 10.54 1.49 7.71 0.31 8.71 2.30 9.62 3.15
1936-1940 11.81 1.00 11.57 0.68 11.40 1.08 7.89 0.59 9.19 2.70 10.76 2.76
1941-1945 12.39 0.76 11.83 0.75 12.04 0.87 8.47 1.18 9.96 2.51 11.59 2.25
1946-1950 13.00 0.57 12.26 0.99 12.64 0.90 9.27 1.88 10.77 2.60 12.57 1.56
1951-1955 12.97 0.94 13.32 0.69 13.33 0.90 9.99 2.10 11.80 2.81 13.54 0.88
1956-1960 13.62 1.35 13.47 0.56 13.49 0.36 11.31 1.80 12.64 1.04 14.19 0.41
1961-1965 13.75 0.29 13.83 0.20 13.81 0.02 11.96 1.53 12.87 0.88 14.37 0.47
1966- 1970 13.89 0.62 14.49 -0.18 14.00 0.22 11.79 2.29 13.31 0.73 14.93 0.24
1971-1975 14.47 0.16 14.55 0.02 13.91 0.31 12.89 1.56 13.78 0.34 15.16 0.10
1976-1980 14.28 0.71 14.94 -0.20 14.15 0.15 13.79 1.08 14.21 0.50 15.01 -0.23
50
Conclusions
• Large heterogeneity within and across countries in European migrants to the USA
• Measuring Human Capital gains through international migration across generations requires knowing what was happening in sending and receiving countries
• In the European context, these gains are particularly large among Polish and Italian migrants