Acknowledging SATREPS
Jan 11, 2016
Acknowledging SATREPS
COP17 theme?
Comparison: 1 km and 200 m February diurnal temperature cycle
TORNADO SUNDAY
Hundreds of homes were destroyed in Ficksburg in the Free State. Another tornado hit the East Rand and caused extensive damage to Duduza, near Nigel. Two children died.
HEAT WAVE: 9-13 NOVEMBER 2011(AT MY HOUSE: 33; 33.5; 31; 32.5; 33.5°C)
Verification of CCAM AMIP: Limpopo
ROC Scores: Coupled vs. 2-tiered systems
NEW OPERATIONAL APPROACHES
NCEP/GFS
Model Output StatisticsAtmospheric ICs
Boundary ConditionsResolution ~200km
15 km Probabilistic weather forecasts:• Two cloud schemes• LAF updated every 6 hours
A NEW INITIATIVE ON NWP?? To revolutionize numerical weather
prediction (NWP) modelling, research and operations
Themes may include: Optimal model configuration Process studies Applications modelling Model development Initialization strategies Parameterization Atmosphere-ocean coupling Verification
A GOOD BOOK ON WX AND CC TO GET:
“Climate is what you expect, but weather is what you get”