Aci Croatia: Fixed income

Zagreb, 16.04.15 Fixed Income market Filip Jukić

• Prema izdavatelju:– Državne– Municipalne– Korporativne

• Prema dospijeću:– Kratkoročne <5y– Srednjoročne 5-10y– Dugoročne >10y

• Prema kuponu:– Obveznice s fiksnim kuponom– Obveznice s promjenjivim kuponom– Obveznice bez kupona, sa amortizirajućom glavnicom…

ObvezniceObveznice

• Domaće obveznice– Kunske obveznice– Obveznice s valutnom klauzulom

• Inozemne obveznice– Međunarodne obveznice (Eurobonds)– Strane obveznice (izdane na tržištu druge države, Yankee, Samurai…)

ObvezniceObveznice

• Lokalna izdanja - putem sindikata domaćih banaka (Erste, RBA, Zaba, PBZ, HYPO, Splitska…)

• Eurobonds – putem inozemnog sindikata banaka (Barclays, JP Morgan, Erste Group, Zaba…)

• Hrvatsko tržište ne poznaje sustav primarnih dealer-a niti godišnji kalendar izdanja

Primarno tržište obveznicaPrimarno tržište obveznica

Issuer Name Ticker Issue Date Amount Issued Maturity Date Cpn CurrBulgaria Government International Bond BGARIA 3.7.2014. 1.493.000.000 3.9.2024. 2,950 EURCroatia Government International Bond CROATI 29.5.2014. 1.250.000.000 30.5.2022. 3,875 EURFormer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia MACEDO 24.7.2014. 500.000.000 24.7.2021. 3,975 EURHungary Government International Bond REPHUN 25.3.2014. 1.446.446.000 25.3.2024. 5,375 USDHungary Government International Bond REPHUN 25.3.2014. 723.223.000 25.3.2019. 4,000 USDLithuania Government International Bond LITHUN 22.1.2014. 500.000.000 22.1.2024. 3,375 EURLithuania Government International Bond LITHUN 29.10.2014. 1.000.000.000 29.10.2026. 2,125 EURMontenegro Government International Bond MONTEN 20.5.2014. 280.000.000 20.5.2019. 5,375 EURPoland Government International Bond POLAND 22.1.2014. 1.475.906.000 22.1.2024. 4,000 USDPoland Government International Bond POLAND 15.1.2014. 2.000.000.000 15.1.2024. 3,000 EURPoland Government International Bond POLAND 27.2.2014. 300.000.000 27.2.2034. 3,272 EURRomanian Government International Bond ROMANI 22.1.2014. 737.953.000 22.1.2044. 6,125 USDRomanian Government International Bond ROMANI 22.1.2014. 737.953.000 22.1.2024. 4,875 USDRomanian Government International Bond ROMANI 28.10.2014. 1.500.000.000 28.10.2024. 2,875 EURRomanian Government International Bond ROMANI 24.4.2014. 1.250.000.000 24.4.2024. 3,625 EURSlovakia Government Bond SLOVGB 16.1.2014. 1.966.100.000 16.1.2029. 3,625 EURSlovakia Government International Bond SLOVAK 21.2.2014. 500.000.000 21.2.2034. 3,600 EURSlovenia Government Bond SLOREP 8.4.2014. 1.000.000.000 8.4.2021. 3,000 EURSlovenia Government Bond SLOREP 8.4.2014. 1.033.750.000 9.10.2017. 1,750 EURSlovenia Government Bond SLOREP 4.11.2014. 1.000.000.000 25.3.2022. 2,250 EURSlovenia Government International Bond SLOVEN 18.2.2014. 1.090.591.500 18.2.2019. 4,125 USDSlovenia Government International Bond SLOVEN 18.2.2014. 1.454.122.000 18.2.2024. 5,250 USD

CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2014CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2014

Issuer Name Ticker Issue Date Amount Issued Maturity Date Cpn Curr

Bulgaria Government International Bond BGARIA 26.3.2015. 1.250.000.000 26.3.2022. 2,000 EUR

Bulgaria Government International Bond BGARIA 26.3.2015. 850.000.000 26.3.2035. 3,125 EUR

Bulgaria Government International Bond BGARIA 26.3.2015. 1.000.000.000 26.3.2027. 2,625 EUR

Croatia Government International Bond CROATI 11.3.2015. 1.500.000.000 11.3.2025. 3,000 EUR

Montenegro Government International Bond MONTEN 18.3.2015. 500.000.000 18.3.2020. 3,875 EUR

Poland Government International Bond POLAND 7.4.2015. 1.000.000.000 10.5.2027. 0,875 EUR

Slovakia Government Bond SLOVGB 21.1.2015. 1.500.000.000 21.1.2027. 1,375 EUR

Slovenia Government Bond SLOREP 25.3.2015. 1.000.000.000 25.3.2035. 1,500 EUR

CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2015CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2015

• Izuzev Crne Gore, koja je izdala 5y Eurobond s najnižim kuponom u povijesti, svi ostali izdavatelji CEE regije koriste trenutne tržišne prilike kako bi izdali obveznice dužeg dospijeća, dugoročno osiguravajući jeftin izvor sredstava.

• U svijetlu ECB QE-a, svjedočimo povijesno niskim prinosima te se nalazimo u okruženju gdje je cijena novca na rekordno niskim razinama.

• Tržište trenutno potiče izdanja dužih dospijeća CEE regije, postoji velika potražnja za istima od strane europskih investitora dok je ponuda relativno ograničena.

CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2015CEE izdanja državnih obveznica u 2015

Est. Funding Needs for 2015 Next EUR/USD Redemptions Borrowing Plans for 2015

Czech Republic[A1/AA-/A+]

• Gross domestic issuance approx. EUR 5-6bn

• EUR 300mn bond redemption in October 2015

• No other EUR/USD redemptions in 2015 or in 2016

• Czech Republic has not issued any Eurobond for the last two years, very comfortable cash position

• Eurobond issue possible but unlikely

Slovakia[A2/A/A+]

• Estimated funding needs of EUR 5bn • EUR 440m T-Bills redeem in October• EUR 4.5bn in total mature in 2016

(February and November)

• Entered market with a EUR 1.5bn 12-year Eurobond issue in January

• Potential 7- and/or 15-year benchmarks + auctions

Lithuania[Baa1/A-/A-]

• Gross borrowing expected to total EUR 3bn out of which EUR 1.5bn to come from international funding

• Approx. EUR 500mn bonds redemptions in 2015

• Well prefunded for 1H 2015, might issue international bond in 2H 2015

Latvia[A3/A-/A-]

• Approx. EUR 400mn for 2015 international funding needs

• Approx. EUR 300mn redemptions in 2015

• Possible one Eurobond issue, likely used for prefunding for 2016

Slovenia[Baa3/A-/BBB+]

• Total funding needs estimated at approx. EUR4-5bn

• Approx. EUR 700mn redemption of T-bills in 2015

• Issued EUR 1bn 20-year bond in March 2015, completed funding requirement for 2015, prefunded part of 2016

• In comfortable cash position

Romania[Baa3/BBB-/BBB-]

• Total funding needs of equiv. EUR 12-EUR 13bn

• Approx. EUR 2bn of it raised via Eurobonds

• EUR 1bn redeemed in March• Approx. EUR 880mn redemption in July

• Expected to issue EUR benchmark in near future and possible second issue later in the year

Poland[A2/A-/A-]

• EUR 6.5bn equivalent international funding need

• EUR 3bn in Feb 2016, USD 1bn in Jul 2015 and USD 800mln in Oct 2015

• But there is ~EUR 1.4bn CHF-denominated redemption in May

• Poland priced a 12-year EUR 1bn on 7 Apr 2015

• Ahead of that it has already addressed more than 50% of its total 2015 funding need from the local markets

CEE planirana izdanja u 2015CEE planirana izdanja u 2015

Croati25E - najnovije hrvatsko izdanjeCroati25E - najnovije hrvatsko izdanje

Croati25E – trenutna cijenaCroati25E – trenutna cijena

Croati25E - pricingCroati25E - pricing

• Sudionici:– Mirovinski fondovi– Banke– Osiguravajuća društva– Fondovi (UCITS - 'Undertakings For The Collective Investment Of Transferable

Securities)• Trgovanje: OTC (99%) i ZSE• Market making: formalno ne postoji• Karakteristike:

– Slaba likvidnost– Relativno plitko tržište– Široki b/a spread

Sekundarno tržište obveznicaSekundarno tržište obveznica

Short name ISIN Ccy Maturity Bid yld Bid B/A Sprd Ask Ask yld Z-spread Duration PVBPCROATE 4.25 15 HRRHMFO157A6 EUR 14.07.15. 0,54 100,91 46 101,03 0,08 8,06 0,25 0,00CROATE 5.375 19 HRRHMFO19BA2 EUR 29.11.19. 2,67 111,74 16 112,47 2,51 230,75 4,11 0,05CROATE 6.5 20 HRRHMFO203E0 EUR 05.03.20. 2,67 117,50 16 118,29 2,51 229,44 4,30 0,05CROATE 6.5 22 HRRHMFO227E9 EUR 22.07.22. 3,14 121,85 16 123,00 2,98 261,93 5,99 0,07CROATE 5.75 24 HRRHMFO247E7 EUR 10.07.24. 3,24 120,08 16 121,48 3,08 261,48 7,40 0,09CROATE 5.25 15 HRRHMFO15CA8 HRK 15.12.15. 1,50 102,46 30 102,66 1,20 0,00 0,65 0,01CROATE 5.75 16 HRRHMFO167A5 HRK 22.07.16. 2,10 104,55 20 104,81 1,90 0,00 1,23 0,01CROATE 4.75 17 HRRHMFO172A5 HRK 08.02.17. 2,25 104,44 20 104,80 2,05 0,00 1,75 0,02CROATE 6.25 17 HRRHMFO17BA6 HRK 25.11.17. 2,50 109,44 20 109,97 2,30 0,00 2,40 0,03CROATE 5.25 18 HRRHMFO187A3 HRK 10.07.18. 2,75 107,75 20 108,39 2,55 0,00 2,99 0,03CROATE 6.75 20 HRRHMFO203A8 HRK 05.03.20. 3,15 116,29 20 117,26 2,95 0,00 4,27 0,05CROATI 5.875 18 XS0645940288 EUR 09.07.18. 2,18 111,38 10 111,71 2,08 198,48 2,93 0,03CROATI 3.875 22 XS1028953989 EUR 30.05.22. 3,05 105,20 10 105,86 2,95 262,70 6,18 0,07CROATI 3 25 XS1117298916 EUR 11.03.25. 3,30 97,50 5 97,91 3,25 277,19 8,66 0,08CROATI 6.25 17 XS0776179656 USD 27.04.17. 3,05 106,30 15 106,60 2,90 208,43 1,89 0,02CROATI 6.75 19 XS0464257152 USD 05.11.19. 4,00 111,51 15 112,16 3,85 243,60 3,93 0,04CROATI 6.625 20 XS0525827845 USD 14.07.20. 4,20 111,53 15 112,27 4,05 252,54 4,50 0,05CROATI 6.375 21 XS0607904264 USD 24.03.21. 4,30 111,04 10 111,58 4,20 258,00 5,07 0,05CROATI 5.5 23 XS0908769887 USD 04.04.23. 4,50 106,96 10 107,64 4,40 257,29 6,60 0,07CROATI 6 24 XS0997000251 USD 26.01.24. 4,55 110,77 10 111,52 4,45 256,53 6,98 0,08

Source: Erste Group

Sekundarno tržište obveznica - kotacijeSekundarno tržište obveznica - kotacije

Source: Bloomberg

Kretanje prinosa kunskih obveznicaKretanje prinosa kunskih obveznica

Source: Bloomberg

Kretanje prinosa eurskih obveznicaKretanje prinosa eurskih obveznica

Source: Bloomberg

Kretanje prinosa dolarskih obveznicaKretanje prinosa dolarskih obveznica

Source: Bloomberg

Krivulje prinosa dolarskih obveznicaKrivulje prinosa dolarskih obveznica

Source: Bloomberg

Govt. Spread - Croati23s vs. UST23sGovt. Spread - Croati23s vs. UST23s

Source: Bloomberg

Krivulje prinosa eurskih obveznicaKrivulje prinosa eurskih obveznica

Source: Bloomberg

Govt. Spread - Croati22E vs. DBR22Govt. Spread - Croati22E vs. DBR22

World Bonds overviewWorld Bonds overview

Što smijemo raditi, koji su nam limiti…Što smijemo raditi, koji su nam limiti…

• HTM book (held to maturity), financijska imovina s fiksnim ili odredivim plaćanjima i fiksnim dospijećem za koju subjekt ima pozitivnu namjeru i mogućnost držati je do dospijeća, trenutne promjene cijena nemaju utjecaja na vrijednost imovine…

• TRADING book, financijska imovina/obveza vrednuje se po fer vrijednosti kroz dobit ili gubitak, klasificirana je kao imovina/obveza namijenjena trgovanju.

• AFS book (available for sale), nederivativna financijska imovina koja se definira kao raspoloživa za prodaju ili nije klasificirana kao (a) zajmovi i potraživanja, (b) ulaganja koja se drže do dospijeća ili (c) financijska imovina koja se vodi po fer vrijednosti kroz dobit ili gubitak.

Knjige trgovanjaKnjige trgovanja

Reference Entity Notional Notional Limit Utilization CrPV01 CrPV01 Limit Utilization    Romania 150.000.000 200.000.000 75,0% -30.000 50.000 -60,0%

    Croatia 80.000.000 100.000.000 80,0% -20.000 30.000 -66,7%    Hungary 50.000.000 200.000.000 25,0% -25.000 40.000 -62,5%    Serbia 35.000.000 50.000.000 70,0% -10.000 20.000 -50,0%

    Bulgaria 10.000.000 50.000.000 20,0% -5.000 20.000 -25,0%    Montenegro 10.000.000 30.000.000 33,3% -2.211 10.000 -22,1%    Macedonia 10.000.000 30.000.000 33,3% -1.435 10.000 -14,4%    High Risk Bucket 345.000.000 660.000.000 52,3% -93.646 180.000 -52,0%

     Czech Republic 300.000.000 500.000.000 60,0% -100.000 300.000 -33,3%

    Poland 50.000.000 400.000.000 12,5% -50.000 200.000 -25,0%    Slovakia 100.000.000 200.000.000 50,0% 20.000 100.000 20,0%    Slovenia 30.000.000 100.000.000 30,0% 10.000 50.000 20,0%    Italy 60.000.000 100.000.000 60,0% 20.000 30.000 66,7%    Spain 80.000.000 100.000.000 80,0% 25.000 30.000 83,3%    Mid Risk Bucket 620.000.000 1.400.000.000 44,3% -75.000 710.000 -10,6%

     Germany 300.000.000 500.000.000 60,0% 50.000 200.000 25,0%    Austria 200.000.000 400.000.000 50,0% -50.000 150.000 -33,3%    Switzerland 100.000.000 500.000.000 20,0% -50.000 200.000 -25,0%    Netherland 300.000.000 400.000.000 75,0% -75.000 150.000 -50,0%    France 400.000.000 400.000.000 100,0% -150.000 150.000 -100,0%    USA 250.000.000 700.000.000 35,7% 100.000 300.000 33,3%    UK 300.000.000 700.000.000 42,9% 100.000 300.000 33,3%    Low Risk Bucket 1.850.000.000 3.600.000.000 51,4% -75.000 1.450.000 -5,2%

Country limitsCountry limits

Maturity Bucket Notional CrPV01   Limit Utilization

1Y - 2Y 500.000.000 -100.000   150.000 -66,7%

2Y - 3Y 1.000.000.000 -150.000   200.000 -75,0%

3Y - 4Y 500.000.000 -200.000 300.000 -66,7%

4Y - 5Y 500.000.000 -200.000   300.000 -66,7%

5Y - 6Y 200.000.000 -50.000   100.000 -50,0%

6Y - 7Y 200.000.000 -60.000 100.000 -60,0%

7Y - 8Y 150.000.000 -60.000 100.000 -60,0%

8Y - 9Y 100.000.000 -50.000 100.000 -50,0%

9Y - 10Y 200.000.000 -150.000   125.000 -120,0%

Maturity buckets limitsMaturity buckets limits

EUR CZK HUF PLN RON USD RSD CHF HRK Total

01 Y   -10.000 -1.000 0 -10.000   -5.000 -3.000 -4.000 -33.000

03 Y   -1.000 2.000 0 -20.000   -5.000 -2.000 -3.000 -29.000

05 Y -75.000 2.000 -5.000 0 5.000 7.000 -5.000 -20.000 -2.000 -93.000

07 Y -10.000 3.000 -5.000 -10.000 10.000 8.000 4.000 10.000 5.000 15.000

10 Y -10.000 5.000 -7.000 -50.000 10.000 10.000 -5.000 5.000 -5.000 -47.000

PVBP-Sum: -95.000 -1.000 -16.000 -60.000 -5.000 25.000 -16.000 -10.000 -9.000 -187.000

% utilization: 31,67% 0,67% 16,00% 60,00% 10,00% 25,00% 32,00% 20,00% 12,00% 19,18%

Limit: 300.000 150.000 100.000 100.000 50.000 100.000 50.000 50.000 75.000 975.000

Currency limitsCurrency limits

Tržište, sudionici, struktura, evolucija… Tržište, sudionici, struktura, evolucija…

33

77

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Tota l funds

OMF40,9%

DMF1,6%

UCITS57,5%

12.2007OMF

69,4%

DMF3,4%

UCITS27,1%

06.2011

OMF79,8%

DMF3,7%

UCITS16,5%

03.2014

77bnHRK in total assets

under management at the

end of 03.2014

80%share of pension

funds in total assets at the end

of 03.2014

Evolution of total assets structure by fund types (%)Evolution of total assets structure by fund types (%)

AZ; 8.330

Erste plavi; 2.736

PBZ CO; 3.599

ROMF; 6.538

DMF; 838Money IF;

4.230

Equity IF; 14.560

Balanced IF; 10.365

Bond IF; 676

Other IF; 0

12.2007

AZ; 24.524

Erste plavi; 8.155

PBZ CO; 10.058

ROMF; 18.625

DMF; 2.851

Money IF; 9.421

Equity IF; 1.815

Balanced IF; 761

Bond IF; 454

Other IF; 232

03.2014

Distribution of total assets by fund types (HRKmn)Distribution of total assets by fund types (HRKmn)

12.2007 03.2014

Total assets structure of Croatian funds: domestic vs. foreignTotal assets structure of Croatian funds: domestic vs. foreign

Domestic assets87,9%

Foreign assets12,1%

03.2014

Domestic assets87,7%

Foreign assets12,3%

03.2013

Total assets structure of Croatian funds by asset types (%)Total assets structure of Croatian funds by asset types (%)

Shares18,3%

Funds5,6%

Bonds59,9%

MM5,4%

Deposit7,3%

Cash2,4%

Receiv.1,0%

12.2013

Shares17,5%

Funds4,2%

Bonds63,9%

MM5,1%

Deposit5,7%

Cash3,0%

Receiv.0,7%

03.2014

Development of bonds investments by Croatian funds (HRKmn, %))Development of bonds investments by Croatian funds (HRKmn, %))

49.1bnHRK, investments

in bonds by Croatian funds

total at the end of 03.2014

63.9%share of total

assets invested into bonds at the

end of 03.2014

16.149

49.100

48,9%

63,9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Total funds Total funds

Evolution of bonds investments structure by fund types (%)Evolution of bonds investments structure by fund types (%)

OMF81,2%

DMF2,2%

UCITS16,6%

12.2007

OMF87,8%

DMF4,0%

UCITS8,2%

06.2011

OMF93,2%

DMF4,2%

UCITS2,5%

03.2014

Bonds investments structure by fund types (%)Bonds investments structure by fund types (%)

AZ32,5%

Erste plavi9,8%

PBZ CO13,2%

ROMF25,6%

DMF2,2%

Money IF1,1%

Bond IF2,6%

Balanced IF10,1%

Equity IF2,9%

Other IF0,0%

12.2007

AZ37,0%

Erste plavi12,3%

PBZ CO14,4%

ROMF29,4%

DMF4,2%

Money IF1,0%

Bond IF0,7%

Balanced IF0,6%Equity IF

0,1%Other IF

0,1%

03.2014

Funds according to investments into bonds (HRK mn)Funds according to investments into bonds (HRK mn)

Funds according to proportion of bonds in total assets (%)Funds according to proportion of bonds in total assets (%)

18.191

6.0617.084

14.439

204 665 100 102 75 557 380 505 329 295 55 580

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

AZ Erste p lavi PBZ CO ROMF AZ Benefit AZ Profit CROS DMF EP Expert EP Protect RaiffeisenDMF

ZDMF Money IF Bond IF Balanced IF Equity IF Other IF

03.2014

74,2% 74,3%70,4%

77,5%

93,9%

68,2% 65,8% 68,4%

93,8%

73,5% 73,2%

5,4%

72,5%

38,8%

3,0%

24,9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AZ Erste p lavi PBZ CO ROMF AZ Benefit AZ Profit CROS DMF EP Expert EP Protect RaiffeisenDMF

ZDMF Money IF Bond IF Balanced IF Equity IF Other IF

03.2014

Macro slika, želimo li se pozicionirati u određene v.p.

Macro slika, želimo li se pozicionirati u određene v.p.

Cumulative GDP performance 2008-2014 (2008=100)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Po

lan

d

Mal

ta

Mac

ed

on

ia

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Slo

vaki

a

Swed

en

Swit

zerl

and

No

rway

Un

ite

d K

ingd

om

Ge

rman

y

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Be

lgiu

m

Est

on

ia

Au

stri

a

Fran

ce

Lith

uan

ia

Bu

lgar

ia

Ice

lan

d

Mo

nte

ne

gro

Ire

lan

d

EU

28

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

Ro

man

ia

EU

15

Hu

nga

ry

Serb

ia

Net

he

rlan

ds

Latv

ia

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Spai

n

Po

rtu

gal

Slo

ven

ia

Ital

y

Cyp

rus

Cro

atia

Gre

ece

Source: Eurostat, Statistical offices

Divergent economic trends in the EU,Croatia among the most affected countries

Divergent economic trends in the EU,Croatia among the most affected countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Irel

and

Mac

edo

nia

USA

Mo

nte

neg

ro

Pola

nd

Latv

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Mal

ta

Gre

ece

Slo

vaki

a

Ro

man

ia

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Esto

nia

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Swed

en

Spai

n

Hu

nga

ry

Slo

ven

ia

Den

mar

k

EU

Ger

man

y

Port

uga

l

Euro

are

a

Net

her

land

s

Fran

ce

Japa

n

Bel

giu

m

Au

stri

a

Fin

lan

d

Cyp

rus

Ital

y

Bu

lgar

ia

Cro

atia

Serb

ia

Expected cumulative GDP growth in 2014-2016

Source: EC

…with positive growth outlook…with positive growth outlook

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Croatia Slovenia Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Source: Statistical offices

GDP performance – regional overview GDP performance – regional overview

S&P scale Fitch scale Moody's scaleAAA AAA AaaAA+ AA+ Aa1AA AA Aa 2AA- Czech Republic AA- Aa3A+ A+ Slovakia, Czech R. A1 Czech RepublicA Slovakia A A2 Slovakia, Poland

Slovenia A- Poland A- Poland A3BBB+ Slovenia BBB+ Baa1BBB BBB Baa2 BBB- Romania BBB- Romania Slovenia Baa3 RomaniaBB+ Hungary Macedonia BB+ Hungary Croatia Ba1 Hungary

Croatia BB Croatia BB Ba2Serbia, Macedonia BB- BB- Montenegro Ba3

Montenegro B+ Serbia B+ Serbia B1B&H B B B2

B- B- B&H B3CCC CCC Caa CC CC Ca C C CD

Source: Bloomberg

Rating overview,Comparison among region countries and CEE region

Rating overview,Comparison among region countries and CEE region

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

De

c-0

8

Mar

-09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

De

c-0

9

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

De

c-1

0

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Outstanding T-bills (EUR mn) Foreign ownership (EUR mn) Foreign ownership (in %) - RHS

Source: CNB, MoF

Quick sell-off damage on the exchange rate easily controllable

Quick sell-off damage on the exchange rate easily controllable

Veliko hvala kolegama iz research-a Erste banke!

The End…The End…