Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use Jing Liu 1* , Thomas W. Hertel 1 , Richard Lammers 2 , Alexander Prusevich 2 , Uris Baldos 1 , Danielle Grogan 2 , and Steve Frolking 2 1 Purdue University 2 University of New Hampshire * Email: [email protected]Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2016 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, July 31-August 2 Copyright 2016 by Jing Liu, Thomas W. Hertel, Richard Lammers, Alexander Prusevich, Uris Baldos, Danielle Grogan, and Steve Frolking. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
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Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production
and Land Use
Jing Liu1*, Thomas W. Hertel1, Richard Lammers2, Alexander Prusevich2, Uris Baldos1,
Cropland change in 2050 with and without the sustainable constraint on irrigation water with-drawal, relative to cropland area in 2006. Unit is million hectares.
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Figure 1: Irrigation scarcity index 2006.Irrigation scarcity index calculated as the ratio of irrigation demand to water available for irrigation at the sub-basin level in 2006.A larger value indicates more water is withdrawn relative to irrigation supply. Source: Authors’ calculation, based on the ten-yearaverage (2001-2010) irrigation demand and supply simulated by WBM.
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Figure 2: Experimental design.Experiment 1, sustainable irrigation in current economy; Experiment 2, updating current economy to future, no sustainable irrigationconstraint; Experiments 2-a,b,c, updating current economy to the future of no sustainable irrigation constraint but allowing for inter-basin water transfer, higher R&D investment, and market integration, respectively. Experiment 3, sustainable irrigation in futureeconomy but without adaptations; Experiments 3-a,b,c, sustainable irrigation in future economy and with adaptations.
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Figure 3: Evolving irrigation scarcity, 2050 relative to 2006.In this comparison, a “business-as-usual” future in 2050 is assumed, which means no sustainability requirement and policy intervention,high emissions scenario RCP8.5, and a stagnant TFP growth. Source: Authors’ calculation, based on irrigation demand and supplysimulated by WBM and SIMPLE-on-a-Grid.
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Figure 4: Impacts on crop output and prices.Percentage change in regional crop output (left) and crop price (right). X-axis numbers indicate percentage points.
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Figure 5: Impacts on land use change.The change of cropland area (total, rainfed, and irrigated) caused by performing sustainable irrigation in 2050. Each panel comparesthe results simulated under different adaptations (E3a-c). All changes are relative to the 2050 world when the corresponding adaptationexists but no sustainability constraint. Black dots indicate the world’s total. Colored segments indicate the contributions from eachregion.
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Figure 6: Grid-level change in irrigated cropland area.Comparison of grid-level irrigated cropland change in 2050 between with (top) and without (bottom) sustainable irrigation constraint.Unit is 1000 ha. Positive number means land expansion in 2050 relative to 2006.
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Appendix A Analytical model of gridded impacts of environmental constraints
• po: percentage change in national price of agricultural output
• qo: percentage change in crop output
• qX : percentage change in demand for agricultural input X
• pXg : percentage change in the price of agricultural input X
• θiLand: cost share of irrigated land input in grid g
• θrLand: cost share of rainfed land input in grid g
• αg,j : national output share of crop j grown in grid g
• ao: input-neutral efficiency index in crop sectors
• δnLandg,j : tax share of crop j non-land input cost in grid g
• γg: share of grid g water demand in sub-basin B
• λiLandg : per hectare shadow price of irrigation water in sub-basin B
• σg,j : elasticity of substitution between land and non-land inputs
• νiLandg : elasticity of irrigated land supply in grid g
• νrLandg : elasticity of rainfed land supply in grid g
• νnLand: elasticity of non-land input supply in the region
• βnLandg : share of grid g non-land input in regional total
• βnLandj : share of crop j non-land input in grid g
• tnLandg,j : percentage change in specific tax on non-land input in crop j on grid g
(B.1) Zero profits for irrigated crop sector in grid g
(B.2) Zero profits for rainfed crop sector in grid g
(B.3) Grid-level demand for non-land inputs by crops
(B.4) Regional demand for non-land inputs by crops
(B.5) Regional supply of non-land inputs to crop sectors
(B.6) Grid-level demand for land inputs by irrigated crop
(B.7) Grid-level supply of irrigated land input to irrigated crop sector
(B.8) Grid-level demand for land inputs by rainfed crop
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(B.9) Grid-level supply of rainfed land input to rainfed crop sector
(B.10) Sub-basin level demand for water by irrigated crop sector
(B.11) Regional crop output
(B.12) Land-type specific tax on non-land input usage
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Appendix B Projection of non-agricultural water consumption
This section documents the method applied to project and downscale national-level annualdomestic and industrial water demand to the grid-level. The following equations are for countryN. Subscript N is omitted.
1. Gather base year (2010) national domestic and industrial water withdrawal data from FAOAQUASTAT
2. Calculate water use intensity of each, assuming constant intensity over time
(a) Domestic water use intensity
ηD =DWU2010∑
g∈N P 2010g G2010
g
=DWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
, t = 1981, ..., 2100 (B.1)
(b) Industrial water use intensity
ηI =IWU2010∑
g∈N P 2010g G2010
g
=IWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
, t = 1981, ..., 2100 (B.2)
3. Predict national level water use time series
(a) Domestic water use: DWU t = DWU2000[1 + rtpop + 0.2 × rtgpc]
(b) Domestic water use: IWU t = IWU2000[1 + 0.2 × rtgdp]
(c) Annual growth rate of GDP per capita: rtgpc = rtgdp − rtpop
4. Multiply water use intensity with gridded population and GDP to obtain grid-level wateruse
(a) Domestic water use: DWU t = ηDPtgG
tg
(b) Industrial water use: IWU t = ηIPtgG
tg
5. Verify that aggregating grid-level water use returns national water use
(a) Domestic water use:∑g∈
DWU tg =
∑g∈N
ηDPtgG
tg (B.3)
=∑g∈
DWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
P tgG
tg (B.4)
= DWU t∑g∈
DWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
= DWU t (B.5)
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(b) Industrial water use:∑g∈
IWU tg =
∑g∈N
ηIPtgG
tg (B.6)
=∑g∈
IWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
P tgG
tg (B.7)
= IWU t∑g∈
IWU t∑g∈N P t
gGtg
= IWU t (B.8)
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Table A-1: Mapping between countries and regions in SIMPLE-on-a-Grid
Region Country
AUS NZ aus,nzlC Asia kgz,tjk,tkm,uzb
CAN canCC Amer blz,cri,cub,dom,slv,gtm,guy,hti,hnd,mex,nic,pan,pri,sur,tto
CHN MNG chn,mngE Euro alb,arm,aze,blr,geo,kaz,mda,rom,rus,ukr,ysr,mkd,bih,hrv,svn
EU aut,bgr,cyp,dnk,est,fin,fra,deu,grc,hun,isl,irl,ita,lva,ltu,nld,nor,pol,prt,esp,swe,che,gbr,bel,lux,cze,svkJPN KR jpn,kor
M East irn,irq,isr,jor,lbn,omn,sau,syr,tur,are,yemN Afr dza,egy,lby,mar,tun
S Afr bwa,lso,mus,nam,zaf,swzS Amer arg,bol,bra,chl,col,ecu,pry,per,ury,venS Asia bgd,btn,ind,npl,pak,lka
SE Asia khm,fji,idn,lao,mys,png,phl,slb,tha,tmp,vut,vnmUS usa
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Table A-2: Experiment comparison
ExperimentSustainable Inter-basin R&D Integrated
Economy Irrigation water transfer investment market
Baseline 2006 - - - -
E1 2006 3 7 7 7
E2 2006 7 7 7 7
E2-a 2050 7 3 7 7
E2-b 2050 7 7 3 7
E2-c 2050 7 7 7 3
E3 2050 3 7 7 7
E3-a 2050 3 3 7 7
E3-b 2050 3 7 3 7
E3-c 2050 3 7 7 3
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Figure A-1: SIMPLE-on-a-Grid core model structure.
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Figure A-2: Water Balance ModelSchematic diagram showing major components of the UNH Water Balance Model with a list ofprocesses over the land, river and human interactions.