Northwest Power and Conservation Council Achievable Penetration Achievable Penetration Rates Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Conservation Resources Advisory Committee Committee
Achievable Penetration Rates. The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee. Outline in Two Parts. Part 1 Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions. Part 2 Sensitivity Testing. Based on Comments & Further Thought. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Part 1Part 1– Revisions to Ramp Rate AssumptionsRevisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions
Part 2Part 2– Sensitivity TestingSensitivity Testing
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual RatesTamping Down Max Annual Rates
Based on Comments & Further ThoughtBased on Comments & Further Thought
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Industrial Revisions: Industrial Slowed down two important new measures:Slowed down two important new measures:
– From From New Measure - Fast New Measure - Fast toto New Measure - Medium New Measure - Medium» Energy Project ManagementEnergy Project Management» Integrated Plant Energy ManagementIntegrated Plant Energy Management» Represent about 20% of industrial savingsRepresent about 20% of industrial savings
Retrofit Ramp Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Distribution EfficiencyRevisions: Distribution Efficiency Formerly All at “Formerly All at “New Measure - MediumNew Measure - Medium”” Now: Split by Measure BundleNow: Split by Measure Bundle
– System Voltage by LDC method at System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - FastNew Measure - Fast
– System Voltage EOL method at System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Light System Improvements at Light System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Major System Improvements at Major System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow
Retrofit Ramp Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
New Measure Slow
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: CommercialRevisions: CommercialMeasureMeasure 30-Mar30-Mar PreviousPreviousLPD Package-NewLPD Package-New LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLPD Package-NRLPD Package-NR LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NewLighting Controls Interior-New LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NRLighting Controls Interior-NR LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastGlass-RetroGlass-Retro Retro in 20Retro in 20 Retro in 10Retro in 10Demand Control Ventilation-NRDemand Control Ventilation-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumRoof Insulation-NRRoof Insulation-NR LO FastLO Fast Retro in 10Retro in 10Computer Servers and IT-RetroComputer Servers and IT-Retro LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumStreet and Roadway Lighting-NRStreet and Roadway Lighting-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO Medium
– New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 yearsNew analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years– LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014
Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater– Emerging Technology Ramp RateEmerging Technology Ramp Rate
Annual Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
An
nu
al U
nit
s A
ch
eiv
ab
le
LO 5P
LostOp_ResTV
LostOp_ResSTB
HPWH
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
ResultsResults
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity
2010 20
11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2019
$30$6
0
$100>20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
MWa
YearLevelized Cost ($ per
MWh)
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
RetrofitRetrofit
2010 20
11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017
2018
2019
$30$5
0$60
$100>20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
MWa
YearLevelized Cost ($ per MWh)
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Comparative Max RatesComparative Max Rates66thth PLAN PLAN 20102010 20142014 20192019
Reality Check Reality Check Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008Expect higher in 2008
– Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA tooMost programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too
– Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLsOf the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs» But CFL savings not in 6But CFL savings not in 6thth Plan targets Plan targets
Many New MeasuresMany New Measures Higher Avoided CostsHigher Avoided Costs Federal Standards PushFederal Standards Push State Code Revisions in the WorksState Code Revisions in the Works
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
55thth Plan Targets Seemed Daunting Plan Targets Seemed Daunting
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Re
sourc
e (
aM
W)
Lost-Opportunity
Retrofit
5th Plan Targets(130 to 150 MWa)
Historic Performance
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Re
sourc
e (
aM
W)
Alliance Programs
BPA and Utility Programs
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Part 2: Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingRamp Rate Sensitivity Testing
Purpose: Purpose: – What is the Value of Going Faster?What is the Value of Going Faster?– What is the Cost of Going Slower?What is the Cost of Going Slower?– What are the Resource Consequences?What are the Resource Consequences?– What are the Revenue Requirements?What are the Revenue Requirements?
Tool: Portfolio ModelTool: Portfolio Model– Test Slow & Fast Achievable PenetrationTest Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration