IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported healthy set of numbers for Q3 with PAT of Rs9.4bn (qGR - Rs9.8bn) on back accelerated growth as well as steady margins and operational performance. Retail traction combined with steady corporate demand uptick led to ~25.1% y-y growth in loan book to Rs1285bn. NIM remained stable sequentially at ~399bps, primarily from continued improvement in liability franchise countering yield pressure. Against moderating deposit levels in the system, the bank delivered healthy deposit growth of 25% and further CASA improvement to ~43% as bank’s differentiated acquisition strategies and digital initiatives begin paying dividends The bank delivered on another core strength as lower trading income, down 17% y-y, was offset by robust core fee income of 22% y-y from the strong distribution platform and other fees C/I ratio stable sequentially at ~46%, reflecting expansionary initiatives along with technology investments. Asset quality stable with total stress on the book increasing 6bps q-q – Fresh slippages in line with our expectations considering relatively risky retail book. Major concerns on future credit cost trajectory alleviated by the NPA uptick being broad-based as opposed to any specific accounts and ~60% PCR. Credit cost of ~15bps for the quarter, against ~18bps in 2QFY18, implies expected total costs for the fiscal to be stable y-y around ~60bps. Adequacy ratios improved further due to lower risk-weights for fee income and consumer book, reducing need for additional growth capital. We remain constructive on the bank considering healthy and stable performance outlook, high levels of product/geographic diversification, robust digital infrastructure and differentiated strategies. Accordingly, we make minor changes to our model and keep PT intact at Rs1994, corresponding to P/ABV of ~3.2x FY19E. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating. Credit growth accelerating – Corporate uptick gains in strength: The bank recorded credit growth of 25.1% y-y from robust retail demand. Consumer book grew ~24% y-y as CV financing demand “boom” was supported by strong growth across the book, particularly tractors, equipment financing and credit cards. Importantly, corporate book grew 26% y-y as WC demand continued while greenfield capex requirements picked up, also reflecting sustainability of current uptick. BFIN merger update: Management expects merger to be completed by 2QFY19 on higher side and confirmed 4QFY18 standalone reporting. Valuation: Accordingly, we make minor modeling changes and keep PT intact at Rs1994, corresponding to P/ABV of ~3.2x FY19E (post issuance of equity to BFIN and promoters). We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating. Risk: Slowdown in loan growth and further stress in asset quality are the key risks. ACCUMULATE Rs1,700 Reuters: INBK.BO Bloomberg: IIB IN Price Target Rs1,994 Rishabh Bhargava [email protected]022 4088 0342 Market cap Rs1,019 bn (US$16.2 bn) 52-week high/Low Rs 1,818/1,137 Share o/s (fully diluted): 600 (mn) Avg daily trading vol (3m): 1,403 ('000) Avg daily trading val (3m): Rs2,332 mn (US$37 mn) Source: Bloomberg quant vs Consensus (Rs) PT EPS (FY19E) Mean 1,910 77.3 High 2,150 84.5 Low 1,310 67.5 quant 1,994 62.0 Buy(s) Hold(s) Sell(s) Nos 40 9 1 Source: Bloomberg Shareholding pattern (%) Dec17 Mar17 Dec16 Promoters 15.0 15.0 15.0 FIIs 54.8 54.8 55.0 MFs/FIs/Banks 12.6 12.7 12.3 Others 17.7 17.6 17.7 Source: Bloomberg Price performance (Rs) vs the Sensex Source: Bloomberg - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 SENSEX Index IIB IN Equity (RHS) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 SENSEX Index IIB IN Equity (RHS) India Equity Research | Banking and Financials January 11, 2018 Result Update Firing on all cylinders IndusInd Bank Note: pricing as on 11 January 2018; Source: Company data, quant Global Research estimates Exhibit 1: Financials and valuation YE EPS Adj BV P/E P/Ad B ROE ROA March (Rs mn) Change (%) (Rs mn) Change (%) (Rs mn) Change (%) (Rs) (Rs) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY15 34,203 18.3 30,982 19.3 17,937 27.4 33.4 194.3 50.9 8.7 18.2 1.8 FY16 45,166 32.1 41,414 33.7 22,865 27.5 39.3 291.8 43.3 5.8 16.1 1.8 FY17 60,626 34.2 54,510 31.6 28,679 25.4 47.6 328.9 35.7 5.2 15.0 1.8 FY18E 74,446 22.8 65,593 20.3 34,377 19.9 49.4 323.6 34.4 5.3 15.6 1.8 FY19E 92,340 24.0 80,745 23.1 43,131 25.5 62.0 624.7 27.4 2.7 12.7 1.7 NII Operating Profit Net Profit
9
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ACCUMULATE Rs1,700 - · PDF fileChapter heading (1St heading) ... MFs/FIs/Banks 12.6 12.7 12.3 Others 17.7 ... We are factoring in 10 years of
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Sensex Lupin
Chapter heading (1St heading)
IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported healthy set of numbers for Q3 with PAT of Rs9.4bn (qGR - Rs9.8bn) on back accelerated growth as well as steady margins and operational performance.
Retail traction combined with steady corporate demand uptick led to ~25.1% y-y growth in loan book to Rs1285bn.
NIM remained stable sequentially at ~399bps, primarily from continued improvement in liability franchise countering yield pressure.
Against moderating deposit levels in the system, the bank delivered healthy deposit growth of 25% and further CASA improvement to ~43% as bank’s differentiated acquisition strategies and digital initiatives begin paying dividends
The bank delivered on another core strength as lower trading income, down 17% y-y, was offset by robust core fee income of 22% y-y from the strong distribution platform and other fees
C/I ratio stable sequentially at ~46%, reflecting expansionary initiatives along with technology investments.
Asset quality stable with total stress on the book increasing 6bps q-q – Fresh slippages in line with our expectations considering relatively risky retail book.
Major concerns on future credit cost trajectory alleviated by the NPA uptick being broad-based as opposed to any specific accounts and ~60% PCR.
Credit cost of ~15bps for the quarter, against ~18bps in 2QFY18, implies expected total costs for the fiscal to be stable y-y around ~60bps.
Adequacy ratios improved further due to lower risk-weights for fee income and consumer book, reducing need for additional growth capital.
We remain constructive on the bank considering healthy and stable performance outlook, high levels of product/geographic diversification, robust digital infrastructure and differentiated strategies.
Accordingly, we make minor changes to our model and keep PT intact at Rs1994, corresponding to P/ABV of ~3.2x FY19E. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating.
Credit growth accelerating – Corporate uptick gains in strength: The bank recorded credit growth of 25.1% y-y from robust retail demand. Consumer book grew ~24% y-y as CV financing demand “boom” was supported by strong growth across the book, particularly tractors, equipment financing and credit cards. Importantly, corporate book grew 26% y-y as WC demand continued while greenfield capex requirements picked up, also reflecting sustainability of current uptick.
BFIN merger update: Management expects merger to be completed by 2QFY19 on higher side and confirmed 4QFY18 standalone reporting.
Valuation: Accordingly, we make minor modeling changes and keep PT intact at Rs1994, corresponding to P/ABV of ~3.2x FY19E (post issuance of equity to BFIN and promoters). We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating.
Risk: Slowdown in loan growth and further stress in asset quality are the key risks.
ACCUMULATE Rs1,700
Reuters : INBK.BO Bloomberg: I IB IN
Price Target Rs1,994
Rishabh Bhargava
rishabh.bhargava@quantcapita l .co.in
022 4088 0342
Market cap Rs1,019 bn (US$16.2 bn)
52-week high/Low Rs1,818/1,137
Share o/s (ful ly di luted): 600 (mn)
Avg da i ly trading vol (3m): 1,403 ('000)
Avg da i ly trading va l (3m): Rs2,332 mn (US$37 mn)
Source: Bloomberg
quant vs Consensus (Rs)
PT EPS (FY19E)
Mean 1,910 77.3
High 2,150 84.5
Low 1,310 67.5
quant 1,994 62.0
Buy(s ) Hold(s ) Sel l (s )
Nos 40 9 1
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec17 Mar17 Dec16
Promoters 15.0 15.0 15.0
FIIs 54.8 54.8 55.0
MFs/FIs/Banks 12.6 12.7 12.3
Others 17.7 17.6 17.7
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance (Rs) vs the Sensex
Source: Bloomberg
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SENSEX Index IIB IN Equity (RHS)
India Equity Research | Banking and Financials January 11, 2018 Result Update
Firing on all cylinders
IndusInd Bank
Note: pricing as on 11 January 2018; Source: Company data, quant Global Research estimates
Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%) Coverage Ratio (%) - RHS
Source: Company data, quant Global Research
IndusInd Bank: firing on all cylinders
January 11, 2018 4
Valuation We value the bank on Excess Return on Equity (ERoE) basis with Cost of Equity at 13.1%. We consider risk free return at 6.75% whereas assume market risk premium of 6%. We are factoring in 10 years of growth projections and terminal growth of 3% till perpetuity.
Accordingly, we make minor changes to our model and keep PT intact at Rs2000, corresponding to P/ABV of ~3.2x FY19E. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating.
Exhibit 7: Key assumptions Exhibit 8: PT calculation and upside
Valuation assumptions and inputs
FY19E RoE (%) 12.7
Normal ised RoE (%) 15.0
Growth in ini tia l years , g (%) 22.7
Number of high growth years , n 10.0
Cost of equity, Ke (%) 12.8
Avregae RoE (%) 14.1
PT calculation and upside
Fair price - P/ABV, Rs 1,994
Target P/ABV (x) 3.2
Target P/E (x) 32
Current price, Rs 1,700
Ups ide (%) 17.3%
Dividend yield (%) 0.4%
Tota l return (%) 17.7%
Source: quant Global Research estimates Source: quant Global Research estimates
IndusInd Bank: firing on all cylinders
January 11, 2018 5
Valuation charts Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/ABV (x) – 3 Year Average Exhibit 10: One-year forward P/ABV (x) – 5 Year Average
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Source: Bloomberg, quant Global Research estimates Source: Bloomberg, quant Global Research estimates
Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/ABV
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Price, Rs. 0.8x 1.8x 2.8x 3.8x
Exhibit 12: One-year forward P/E
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Source: Bloomberg, quant Global Research estimates Source: Bloomberg, quant Global Research estimates
Note: pricing as on 11 January 2018; Source: Company data, quant Global Research estimates
IndusInd Bank: firing on all cylinders
January 11, 2018 7
Rating history – IndusInd Bank
Source: quant Global Research estimates
Institutional Equities Research coverage universe – distribution of ratings
RATINGS AND OTHER DEFINITIONS
STOCK RATING SYSTEM
BUY. We expect the stock to del iver >15% absolute returns .
ACCUMULATE. We expect the stock to del iver 6-15% absolute returns .
REDUCE. We expect the stock to del iver +5% to -5% absolute returns .
SELL. We expect the stock to del iver negative absolute returns of >5%.
Not Rated (NR). We have no investment opinion on the stock. SECTOR RATING SYSTEM
Overweight. We expect the sector to relatively outperform the Sensex.
Underweight. We expect the sector to relatively underperform the Sensex.
Neutral. We expect the sector to relatively perform in l ine with the Sensex.
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LTP (Rs) Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell PT (Rs)
30%
39%
18%
14%
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Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
IndusInd Bank: firing on all cylinders
January 11, 2018 8
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER
quant Broking Private Limited, Mumbai, India (Hereinafter referred to as “QBPL”) is Registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited and Bombay Stock
Exchange Limited. QBPL is also registered as Depository Participant with NSDL. QBPL is an registered entity as Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst)
Regulations, 2014. QBPL or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.
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of the issuers and their securities and no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report.”
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