ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/Morocco July 9th, 2007 [email protected] Jürgen P. Kropp/Vera Tekken Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Overview Introduction.

ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]

Jürgen P. Kropp/Vera TekkenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact

Research

Overview

• Introduction PIK• Climat du 20ieme siecle• Threats for Northern Morocco: What do we expect for

the 21st century• Importance of the vulnerability concept• Conclusion and Visions

Défi de concilier les activités humaines, le climat et le changement climatique

dans la région de Berkane/Nador


A few words about PIKA few words about PIK


Geo-Research Centre

Potsdam Institute forPotsdam Institute forClimate Impact ResearchClimate Impact Research

Einstein-Tower

Great Refractor

Helmert TowerMichelson-Building

Süring-Building

LibraryMax Planck Institute

for Astrophysics

Alfred Wegner Centre forPolar Research

Potsdam Telegraphenberg


Research Area 1: Earth system analysis

Research Area 2:Climate Impact & Vulnerability

Research Area 3:Sustainable Solutions

Research Area 4:Transdisziplinary Concepts & Methods


Policy advice on all levels.....Policy advice on all levels.....

Advice for German Chancellor A. Merkel

Conference of the G8+5 environmental ministers at PIK

British-German Climate Conference in Berlin, opened by the British Queen


What implies Climate Change?What implies Climate Change?• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System• Much more than climate change• Socio-economic as well as biophysical

For example, changes in:

Reid

& M

iller

(1989)

NOAA

U.S

. Bu

rea

u o

f the

Ce

ns

us

Ma

ck

en

zie e

t al

(20

02

)

Ric

ha

rds

(19

91

), WR

I (1

99

0)

FAO


Learn from earth‘s history: atmospheric COLearn from earth‘s history: atmospheric CO22 concentration concentration

Epica ice cores 2004

CO2 concentration/temperature for the last „700.000 years“ (orbital, solar forcing)CO2 average for glacials: 185 ppmCO2 average for interglacials: 280 ppmToday 383ppm (CO2 equiv. 400ppm) > 35% higher than the value for interglacials and the highest since 700 kyrs!)

+350 Kyrs.

*We are here!

EemEem HoloceneHolocene

WeichselianWeichselian


What have we observed duringWhat have we observed duringthe 20th century?the 20th century?


[mm]

Difference Annual Sum Preciptation: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000Difference Annual Sum Preciptation: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000

minus 10 – 100 mm: Al Hoceima/Nador/Berkaneup to 50 mm plus south of the Atlas mountains

up to 0-50 mm plus central north (Meknes/Fes)


More detailed proneness: % years with precipitation < 400 mm (1981-1998)More detailed proneness: % years with precipitation < 400 mm (1981-1998)

More details Vera‘s talk!


[°C]

Difference Air Temperature: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000Difference Air Temperature: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000

0.6 – 1.0 °C in Morocco


The Complex Climate SystemThe Complex Climate System

Obviously quite well understood (climate & weather), but what remains uncertain?


A2: heterogeneous world, economic growth local oriented, welfare gap remains, population growth up to ~15 bn, 2100 (worst case)

It‘s the anthropogenic forcing, but we are already on the It‘s the anthropogenic forcing, but we are already on the way to the future.........way to the future.........

B1: rapid introduction of resource-efficient technologies, north-south equity, focus on global solutions, stable population ~7 bn, 2100 (sustainable)

IPCC 2007

Stabilization: < 450ppm Stabilization: < 450ppm Emission reduction: > 50%Emission reduction: > 50%


emissions Forcingscenario

Temperature change (°K ) Sea level rise(m)

best estimate variance

low B1 1.8 1.1 – 2.9 0.18 – 0.38

A1T 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.45

B2 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.43

A1B 2.8 1.7 – 4.4 0.21 – 0.48

A2 3.4 2.0 – 5.4 0.23 – 0.51

high A1Fl 4.0 2.4 – 6.4 0.26 – 0.59

IPCC 2007, WGI

Summary of the IPCC scenariosSummary of the IPCC scenarios


What can we anticipate for the 21st century?What can we anticipate for the 21st century?


precipitation annuelle (A2)precipitation annuelle (A2)What different models say!What different models say!

CGCM2 HadCM3 PCM

Green:Green: unchangedRed:Red: dryerBlue:Blue: wetter

High model coincidence!Average decrease of >150mm by 2100 is very likely!


Seasonal changes: precipitation (A2/HadCM3)Seasonal changes: precipitation (A2/HadCM3)difference 2000 vs. 2100difference 2000 vs. 2100

blue: wetter in 2100red: dryer in 2100Green: unchanged

winter

decrease: 50 - 150 mm

spring

[+60, -70] mm

fall

[+50, -80] mm

Summer: overall decrease


Temperature change (A2/HadCM3)Temperature change (A2/HadCM3)difference 2000 vs. 2100difference 2000 vs. 2100

Seasonal:Summer: +[4, 7] °CWinter: +[2.5, 4] °C

hotter

unch.

+[3.5, 6] °C

Diffenbaugh et al. 2007Alexander et al. 2006

Obs. 6d period/top10% Tmax


Identifying vulnerable sectors and Identifying vulnerable sectors and regionsregions

Precondition for the development of Precondition for the development of management/steering alternatives!management/steering alternatives!

The Endeavour for Morocco, i.e. Nador/Berkane


CLIMATE CHANGEHuman

Interference

VU

LN

ER

AB

ILIT

IESInitial Impacts

Effects

Responses

Residual orNet Impacts

IMP

AC

TS

PolicyPolicyResponsesResponses

dangerous? vulnerable?

MITIGATIONMITIGATION(global)(global)

PlannedPlannedADAPTATIONADAPTATION

(local)(local)

- Stocktaking- Stocktaking- Reduction- Reduction

VU

LN

ER

AB

ILIT

IES


Vulnerability ConceptVulnerability Concept

Vulnerability: The degree to which a „system“ is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change impacts. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed (exposed system), its sensitivity (degree of interference), and its adaptive capacity (capability to adjust).

Since climate change impacts may cause serious consequences in Since climate change impacts may cause serious consequences in several sectors it can reduce societies‘ ability to respond! Thus several sectors it can reduce societies‘ ability to respond! Thus vulnerability is a concept allowing to identify hot-spots of action and is onevulnerability is a concept allowing to identify hot-spots of action and is one

precondition for adaptation!precondition for adaptation!

Example: Vulnerabilty of North-Rhine WestphaliaExample: Vulnerabilty of North-Rhine Westphaliaagainst weather extremesagainst weather extremes

396 counties, area: 34070 km2 (9.5% of total)18 Mio. inhabitants (22.5% of total), 22% of total GDP


Sectoral vulnerability NRW (>24 indicators, 1998)Sectoral vulnerability NRW (>24 indicators, 1998)

Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change

heatwaves heatwaves (population density, (population density, amount of elderly people)amount of elderly people)

local employment market local employment market (seasonal unemployment)(seasonal unemployment)

forest sectorforest sector(tree type composition,(tree type composition,hill slope)hill slope)

Cyclone Kyrill 2007

loss of19 Mio. m3 wood


Social Vulnerability: Climate Related DisastersSocial Vulnerability: Climate Related Disasters

Data: www.em-dat.net

Drought

Extreme Temperature

Flood

Wave / Surge

Slides

Wild Fires

Climate sensitivity= + 60,000 per 1°C per Mio. people

http://www.em-dat.net/






Are the Morrocan coasts threatened?Are the Morrocan coasts threatened?


Threat of Sea Level Rise Threat of Sea Level Rise

...we are not in an equilibrium, onlonger time scales (e.g. 2300, 3ºC): will be much higher: 2.5-5.1m (WBGU 2006)

after Archer 2006

observations considered in AR41900-2000: 1-2 mm/yr --1961-2003: 1.8 mm/yr 1.2 mm/yr1993-2003: 3.1mm/yr 2.6 mm/yr

Divergence: observations/considerations


Coastal VulnerabilityCoastal VulnerabilityRisks & Costs of Sea Level RiseRisks & Costs of Sea Level Rise

DINAS Coast 2004

0,000,100,200,300,400,50

0,600,700,800,901,00

Sea

leve

l ris

e (1

992,

m)

Sustainable track: B1

Current track: A2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Avg

. P

rote

ctio

n Le

vel (

yrs) Normative: 100yrs

Normative: 75yrs

BAU: B1

BAU: A2

Coastal Protection Targets


Main Assumptions & CalculationsMain Assumptions & Calculations

Normative Protection Level: 100 u. 75yr return levelComparison: with business as usual (BAU: leave all as it is!)Failure mode: overtop breach modeMigration allowed: yesSimulation time: 5yrs, time spam 2000-2100Input forcing scenarios: A2 and B1

Cost calculation for the coast of Morocco:

i i

plmig

pldamageres

i

plTAC

i i

nonemig

nonedamageres

i

noneTACi CCCCCCC 100

.100

.100

..

Costs without adaptation Costs with protection target


Cost Calculations: BAU vs. Protection TargetCost Calculations: BAU vs. Protection Target

Losses

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mio

. U

S$

A2 worst

until 2060

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Mio

. US

$

B1 best

until 2035

Kick-off investments for 100yr protection target

Overall: Benefits!


Horizontal 90mVertikal 1 m

DTM DTM Nador/BerkaneNador/Berkane

Sea LevelRise: riskprone areasbelow 1m

Wind pressure/directionwill cause additional Threats, e.g. wave tide!


Risk pronearea below 1m

vertical 1mhorizontal 90m

Digital Terrain Model Marsa Digital Terrain Model Marsa Ben Mehdi/SaidiaBen Mehdi/Saidia


vertical 1mhorizontal 90m

DTM Lagoon of DTM Lagoon of NadorNador

Risk pronearea below 1m


Mandatory for MoroccoMandatory for Morocco

Marocco will face threats, i.e. learn to manage the unavoidable, cope with SLR, water scarcity, etc...., but avoidunmanageable situations!

Increased social and biophysical vulnerability; i.e. seek for alternatives in employment, agriculture, tourism...

(One) Vision: use Moroccos natural resource: solar power! • as basis for development• for sea-water desalinisation• energy supplier for Europe• benefit from joint implement.


Panoramic Analysis of Problems

Scientific AdvisoryBoard to the Governmentcan help to meet thetranssectoral challenges!

Thank you for yourattention!

http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1999_presse_engl.html

http://www.wbgu.de/Images/jg1997_titel_big_engl.jpg

http://www.wbgu.de/Images/jg2003_titel_big_engl.jpg

ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/Morocco July 9th, 2007 [email protected] Jürgen P. Kropp/Vera Tekken Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Overview Introduction.

Documents

understood climate weather

climate changesocioeconomic

daysweather changes

seasonal changes

globalscale changes

average temperaturescenarios

ppmco2 average

average decrease