Click here to load reader
May 19, 2015
Mobile World Congress 2012
Always On. Always Connected.
Being everywhere can help your business go anywhere.
Lars Kamp
Mobility Trends that Will Define the Next Decade
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 2
Thank you for organizing #bobmwc!
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 3
Today’s topics
Platform Proliferation
Cloud Cornucopia
App Avalanche
Commodity Computing
Architecture Approaches
Fast Forward
Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left. Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.
• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.
• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.
• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.
• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.
Click to edit Master text stylesPlatform Proliferation
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4
More and more mobile devices
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 5
The Digital World in 2012: Growth since 2007
Source: United Nations, ITU, Gartner, Portio Research, Accenture analysis.
7.0 Billion Global Population
5.9 Billion Mobile Subscriptions
4.6 Billion Mobile Subscribers
2.5 Billion Internet Users
1.2 Billion Mobile Internet Users
354%
84%
48%
76%
6%
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 6
Smartphones: A two-horse race with potential for 3rd
Share of Global Mobile Installed Base of Smartphone OS
Source: Gartner.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EOthers (including Symbian®,
Web OS, Palm® OS)
AndroidTM
Apple
RIM
Windows® Phone
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 7
Android iterating 2x per year …One major dessert every six months
Source: Google; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
Oct 2008Android Market
announced.“G1”
July 2005Android acquired
by Google
2005 2007 2008 2009 20112010
Sept 2003Android incorporated.
“Astro” & “Bender”Nov 2007
OHA founded.“Android” platform
unveiled.
Apr 2009Android
SDK released
History of Android
D E FC GSept 2009Donutv1.6
Oct 2009Éclair v2.0
May 2010 FroYo v2.2
April 2009
Cupcakev1.5
Dec2010GiBrv2.3
… HMar2011HoCov3.0
…IOct
2011IC
v4.0
2012
JH1
2012JB
v5.0?
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 8
… with rapid ecosystem adoptionOne OEM and SemiCo at a time
Source: pdadb.net; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
D
Sept 2009Donutv1.6
E
Oct 2009Éclair v2.0
F
May 2010 FroYo v2.2
C
April 2009
Cupcakev1.5
G
Dec2010GiBrv2.3
H
Mar2011HoCov3.0
HTC
Dream
Samsung
Behold II
Motorola
Droid
HTC
Nexus One
Samsung
Nexus S
Motorola
Xoom
Android Release
“Hero” Device
Chip
Qualcomm MSM7201A 528MHz
QualcommQSD8250998MHz
IntrinsityS5PC1101,000MHz
NVIDIATegra 2 2501,000MHz
TI OMAP3430600 MHz
Qualcomm MSM7201A 528MHz
Oct2011
IceCrmv4.0
I
Samsung
Galaxy Nexus
H12012JB
v5.0?
?
?
?
TI OMAP44601,200MHz
J
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 9
Google’s mobile business: towards 1m activations / dayMonthly AndroidTM Device Activations 2011, Thousands per day
Source: Androinica, Engadget, Google, IDC, TechCrunch, Accenture analysis.
300 325 350 375 400
500550
600 625 650 675 700
Jan2011
Feb2011
Mar2011
Apr2011
May2011
Jun2011
Jul 2011 Aug2011
Sep2011
Oct2011
Nov2011
Dec2011
½ million activations per day
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10
Platform proliferation
Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator.
AppleiOS 1.0
Apple iOS 2.0
Apple iOS 3.0
Apple iOS 5.0
Apple iOS 4.0
iPhone 3GiPhone 1 iPhone 3GS iPhone 4G iPhone 4S
iPad iPad 2 iPad 3
Android 1.0 Cupcake Eclair Ice Cream SandwichGingerbread
Android 1.1 Donut Froyo Honeycomb
Samsung Galaxy Tab 7
Kindle 4
Samsung Slate
Kindle Fire
Motorola Droid RAZR
Samsung Galaxy Nexus
Motorola Bionic
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1
Sony Tablet
Samsung Galaxy SII
HTC Thunderbolt
HTC Incredible S
Samsung Sidekick 4G
ASUS Eee Slider
Motorola Xoom
Motorola Droid X2
HTC Desire
Motorola Droid X
Google Nexus S
LG Optimus
Google TV
Nook Color
HTC Legend
Google Nexus One
HTC EVO
HTC Droid
HTC Aria
HTC Droid Incredible
Motorola Droid Milestone
Explosion of OS versions and device flavors
Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left. Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.
• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.
• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.
• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.
• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.
Click to edit Master text stylesCloud Cornucopia
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 11
Abundance of computing power in the cloud
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 12
Burden Water Wheel: 370 kW
Source; Smithsonian, Nicholas Carr.
1851 - to Burden Iron Works Plant in Troy (NY), 60ft away
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 13
Adam’s Plant: 37,000 kW1895 - to Buffalo (NY), 22 miles away
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 14
Adam’s Plant1,250 hp / 932 kW to Buffalo (NY)22 miles away
Times Square
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 15
Source: Centre for Computing History.
”In addition to making raw
computer power available in
a convenient economical
form, a computer utility
would be concerned with
almost any service or
function which could in some
way be related to the
processing, storage,
collection and distribution of
information.”
The Challenge of the Computer Utility, 1966
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 16
Source: Flickr.
Enterprise Data Center: 10s of CPUs
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 17
Facebook Data Center: 100,000s of CPUs
Source: Facebook
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 18
Multi-$B investments into data centersMassive, “off-deck” geo-distributed computing power
Source: Data Center Knowledge; Accenture analysis, 2012.
Prineville, OR USA The Dalles, OR USA
Maiden, NC USA Dublin, Ireland
Lockport , NY USA
Morrow, OR USA
Apple Amazon Microsoft
Facebook Yahoo Google
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 19
Google’s major Capex in Cloud build-outGoogle Inc. Quarterly Capex, Q1 2004 – Q2 2011, Million USD
Source: Google SEC filings, Accenture analysis.
86 96 78 59
142157
293246
345
699
492
367
597575553
678
842
698
452
368
263
139186
221239
476
757 745
890917
680
951
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 20
Exponential growth in the cloudAmazon.com S3 pricing vs. objects stored, 2007-2012
Source: Amazon AWS Blog, University of Washington; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
$0.08
$0.09
$0.10
$0.11
$0.12
$0.13
$0.14
$0.15
$0.16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Amazon S3 pricing($/GB/Month)
Number of objects in S3 (Billions)
24%
$0.09
14B-2.4%
Peak request: 500,000+ per second
Quarterly CAGR’07-’12
Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left. Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.
• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.
• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.
• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.
• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.
Click to edit Master text styles
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 21
App AvalancheAppification of everything
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 22
The App Store economyCatalog size Apple AppStoreSM & Android Market, by quarter
Source: Apple, Google, Xyologic; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
740 600
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12
~725K
~420K
Apple AppStoreSM
Android Market
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 23
“Appification” of people, things, machines, real estateSoftware replacing everything
Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.
PeopleCabulous
ThingsMercedes-Benz mbrace
MachinesChase Mobile
replacing
Dispatchers
replacing
Keys
replacing
ATMs
Real EstateCherry
replacing your
Corner Car Wash
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 24
Mobile applications + Cloud = ConsumerizationSoftware disrupting incumbent business models across the board
Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.
TransportRelayRides
Office ITBreezy
FinanceSquare
Cars Printers Payments
Real EstateLiquidSpace
Office space
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 25
eBay: Transformation to a mobility companyAccelerating volume growth for eBay’s mobile apps.
Source: eBay SEC filings & earning calls; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012. GMV = “Gross Merchandise Value”; TPV = “Net Total Payment Volume”.
$14.1 $14.4 $14.5
$.2 $.6 $2
Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11
$21.3 $26.6 $31.8
$0.04 $0.2 $1.6
Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11
eBay Marketplaces GMV (US$B)per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11
PayPal TPV (US$B)per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11
Mobile
Desktop
= 100%$14.2 $15.0 $16.5 $21.4 $26.9 $33.4
2%
8%
Mobile
Desktop
= 100%
517%
22%
25%
233%
1.4% 4% 13% <1% <1% 5%Mobile Share of GMV
Mobile Share of TPV
CAGR’09-11
CAGR’09-11
Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left. Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.
• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.
• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.
• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.
• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.
Click to edit Master text styles
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 26
Commodity ComputingShift in enterprise IT consumption to “XaaS”
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 27
Cost of computing coming down exponentiallyUS Asset Price Index, 1969 – 2010
Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
101
102
103
104
105
1970 2010200019901980
Normalized, 2005 = 100
Industrial Equipment
Other Equipment
Transportation Equipment
Computers and Peripheral Equipment
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 28
Increasing enterprise IT consumptionUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010
Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Annual Investment per Employee ($)
Nominal Annual Investment ($B)
1970 2010200019901980
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved.
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
29
Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaS
Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio
1970 2010200019901980
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved.
“Wintel”
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
30
Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaS
Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio
1970 2010200019901980
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved.
“XaaS”
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
31
Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaS
Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio
1970 2010200019901980
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved.
“XaaS”
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
32
Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaS
Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio
1970 2010200019901980
1995YHOO, AMZN, NSCP:
Commercial Web
1990Tim Berners-LeeWorldWideWeb
20071st iPhone1990
ARPANET decommissioned
Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left. Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.
• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.
• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.
• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.
• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.
Click to edit Master text styles
Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 33
Architecture ApproachesParadigm shift in the way IT is built
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 34
The 3 pillars driving mobility & cloud computingOperating principles of market leaders
“We regularly contribute software source code under open source licenses and have made other technology we developed available under other open licenses, and we include open source software in our products.”
Facebook S-1 Filing
Open Source
“Though iOS is proprietary, we strongly believe that all standards pertaining to the web should be open. Rather than use Flash, Apple has adopted HTML5, CSS and JavaScript – all open standards.”
Steve Jobs
Open Standards
“All interfaces must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. The team must plan and design to expose the interface to developers in the outside world. No exceptions. Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired.”
Jeff Bezos
APIs
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 35
Open Source: Evolution of Android’s code baseFrom 3.6M to 17.1M lines in the code base in 3.5 years
Source: Ohloh.net.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12
Lines of code
Comments
Blanks
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 36
“HTML5” – fastest growing keyword in job postingsJob trends from Indeed.com
Source: Indeed Job Trends.
1. HTML5
2. MongoDB3. iOS4. Android5. Mobile app6. Puppet7. Hadoop8. jQuery9. PaaS10.Social Media
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 37
APIs – the new currency“Programmable Web”, number of published APIs per month, 2006-2011
Source: Programmable Web; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cumulative
2012
5,000+
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 38
Putting it all together: shift in “hot skills”Something’s cookin’…
Source: Indeed Job Trends.
“API”
“iOS”
“Android”
“HTML5”
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 39
Shift in architecture paradigmsFrom vertical silos to …
Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator, Accenture analysis..
The Past
3-Tier CentralizedWeb Architecture
The New Reality
Presentation
Logic
Data
App-centric Distributed Cloud Model
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 40
Shift in architecture paradigmsRunning a building vs. running a city
The Past
Running a BuildingStove Pipes
The New Reality
Presentation
Logic
Data
Running a CityPlatforms
Source: Getty Images.
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 41
Fast ForwardApps & connected devices transforming our lives and society
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 42
From appification to task-centric instrumentationChannels, triggers, actions
Twineifttt
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 43
ifttt uptake during 2011Early experiment in instrumentation
Source: ifttt blog.
Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 44
Decreasing share of labor in the age of connected devices Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share (Index 2005 = 100)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed; Andrew McAfee, Accenture analysis. Shaded areas represent recessions.
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
110
94
Mobile World Congress 2012
Always On. Always Connected.
Being everywhere can help your business go anywhere.
Rights to trademarks referenced herein, other than Accenture trademarks, belong to their respective owners. We disclaim proprietary interest in the marks and names of others.
The Accenture CIOMobility Survey 2012Executive Summary