ABOUT MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY DATA Click on table of contents to be taken to your section of interest. CONTENTS About Monthly and Quarterly Data ............................................................................................... 8 1. Frequently Asked Questions ..................................................................................................... 8 How often do you update the data?.............................................................................................. 8 Why is data often revised? ........................................................................................................... 9 Why are some datasets only available quarterly? ........................................................................ 9 What does seasonally adjusted mean? ........................................................................................ 9 Should I choose seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted?.............................................. 9 Not all of the data I select is displayed. Why? .............................................................................. 9 How do you forecast the data? ..................................................................................................... 9 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 10 3. Definitions & Sources ............................................................................................................. 11 Agricultural Raw Materials Index ................................................................................................ 11 Almond Price .............................................................................................................................. 11 Aluminium Price ......................................................................................................................... 11 Apple Price ................................................................................................................................. 11 Banana Price .............................................................................................................................. 11 Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans ...................................................................... 12 Barley Price ................................................................................................................................ 12 Beef Price ................................................................................................................................... 12 Beverages Index ........................................................................................................................ 12 Business Confidence Index ........................................................................................................ 12 Capital to Assets ........................................................................................................................ 13 Cardamom Price ........................................................................................................................ 13 Central Bank Policy Rate............................................................................................................ 13 Chicken Price ............................................................................................................................. 13 Coal Price ................................................................................................................................... 14 Cocoa Price ................................................................................................................................ 14 Coconut Oil Price ....................................................................................................................... 14 Coffee Price................................................................................................................................ 14 Commodity Fuel (Energy) Index ................................................................................................. 14 Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................... 15 Copper Price .............................................................................................................................. 15 Coriander Price .......................................................................................................................... 15 Corn Price .................................................................................................................................. 15 Cotton Price................................................................................................................................ 15 Crude Oil (Europe Brent) Spot Price .......................................................................................... 16 Crude Oil (WTI Cushing) Spot Price ........................................................................................... 16
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ABOUT MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY DATA
Click on table of contents to be taken to your section of interest.
CONTENTS
About Monthly and Quarterly Data ............................................................................................... 8 1. Frequently Asked Questions ..................................................................................................... 8 How often do you update the data? .............................................................................................. 8 Why is data often revised? ........................................................................................................... 9 Why are some datasets only available quarterly? ........................................................................ 9 What does seasonally adjusted mean? ........................................................................................ 9 Should I choose seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted? .............................................. 9 Not all of the data I select is displayed. Why? .............................................................................. 9 How do you forecast the data? ..................................................................................................... 9
2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 10 3. Definitions & Sources ............................................................................................................. 11 Agricultural Raw Materials Index ................................................................................................ 11 Almond Price .............................................................................................................................. 11 Aluminium Price ......................................................................................................................... 11 Apple Price ................................................................................................................................. 11 Banana Price .............................................................................................................................. 11 Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans ...................................................................... 12 Barley Price ................................................................................................................................ 12 Beef Price ................................................................................................................................... 12 Beverages Index ........................................................................................................................ 12 Business Confidence Index ........................................................................................................ 12 Capital to Assets ........................................................................................................................ 13 Cardamom Price ........................................................................................................................ 13 Central Bank Policy Rate............................................................................................................ 13 Chicken Price ............................................................................................................................. 13 Coal Price ................................................................................................................................... 14 Cocoa Price ................................................................................................................................ 14 Coconut Oil Price ....................................................................................................................... 14 Coffee Price ................................................................................................................................ 14 Commodity Fuel (Energy) Index ................................................................................................. 14 Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................... 15 Copper Price .............................................................................................................................. 15 Coriander Price .......................................................................................................................... 15 Corn Price .................................................................................................................................. 15 Cotton Price ................................................................................................................................ 15 Crude Oil (Europe Brent) Spot Price .......................................................................................... 16 Crude Oil (WTI Cushing) Spot Price ........................................................................................... 16
Cumin Price ................................................................................................................................ 16 Current Account Balance............................................................................................................ 16 Customer Deposits to Total Non-Interbank Loans ...................................................................... 17 Employed/Unemployed/Economically Active Population ............................................................ 17 Exchange Rates Against US Dollar ............................................................................................ 17 Export Price Index ...................................................................................................................... 18 Exports ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Exports of Goods and Services .................................................................................................. 18 Food Index ................................................................................................................................. 18 Foreign Currency Denominated Loans to Total Loans ............................................................... 18 Foreign Exchange Reserves ...................................................................................................... 19 GDP ........................................................................................................................................... 19 Gold Price ................................................................................................................................... 19 Government Expenditure............................................................................................................ 19 Government Final Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................. 20 Government Net Lending/Borrowing .......................................................................................... 20 Government Revenue ................................................................................................................ 20 Grapefruit Price .......................................................................................................................... 20 Gross Fixed Capital Formation ................................................................................................... 20 Gross Loans to Nonfinancial Corporations ................................................................................. 21 Hard Logs Price .......................................................................................................................... 21 Hard Sawnwood Price ................................................................................................................ 21 House Price Index ...................................................................................................................... 21 House Price to Income Ratio ...................................................................................................... 22 House Price to Rent Ratio .......................................................................................................... 22 House Rent Price Index.............................................................................................................. 22 Household Debt .......................................................................................................................... 22 Housing Completions ................................................................................................................. 22 Housing Permits ......................................................................................................................... 23 Import Price Index ...................................................................................................................... 23 Imports ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Imports of Goods and Services .................................................................................................. 23 Increases in Stocks .................................................................................................................... 24 Index of Consumer Prices .......................................................................................................... 24 Industrial Production Index ......................................................................................................... 24 Inflation ....................................................................................................................................... 25 International Reserves................................................................................................................ 25 Iron Ore Price ............................................................................................................................. 25 Lamb Price ................................................................................................................................. 25 Lead Price .................................................................................................................................. 25 Lemon Price ............................................................................................................................... 26 Lime Price .................................................................................................................................. 26 Long-Term Interest Rates........................................................................................................... 26 Market Capitalisation .................................................................................................................. 26 Mean Maximum Temperature .................................................................................................... 26 Mean Minimum Temperature ..................................................................................................... 27 Mean Temperature ..................................................................................................................... 27
Metals Index ............................................................................................................................... 27 Milk Price, European Union ........................................................................................................ 27 Milk Price, New Zealand ............................................................................................................. 27 Milk Price, USA .......................................................................................................................... 28 Money Supply ............................................................................................................................. 28 Natural Gas Price, Europe .......................................................................................................... 28 Natural Gas Price, Japan ........................................................................................................... 28 Natural Gas Price, USA .............................................................................................................. 28 Nickel Price ................................................................................................................................ 29 Non-Residential Building Completions ....................................................................................... 29 Non-Residential Building Permits ............................................................................................... 29 Number of Job Vacancies .......................................................................................................... 29 Orange Juice Price ..................................................................................................................... 30 Orange Price .............................................................................................................................. 30 Overnight Interbank Rate ........................................................................................................... 30 Palm Oil Price ............................................................................................................................. 30 Peanut Price ............................................................................................................................... 30 Pepper Price ............................................................................................................................... 31 Pork Price ................................................................................................................................... 31 Private Final Consumption Expenditure ..................................................................................... 31 Producer Price Index, Manufacturing ......................................................................................... 31 Pulp Price ................................................................................................................................... 31 Real GDP Growth ....................................................................................................................... 32 Red Chili Price ............................................................................................................................ 32 Regulatory Tier 1 Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets .................................................................... 32 Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans ............................................................................ 32 Retail Sales Index ...................................................................................................................... 32 Rice Price ................................................................................................................................... 33 Rubber Price .............................................................................................................................. 33 Salmon Price .............................................................................................................................. 33 Silver Price ................................................................................................................................. 33 Soft Logs Price ........................................................................................................................... 33 Soft Sawnwood Price ................................................................................................................. 34 Soybeans Price .......................................................................................................................... 34 Steel Price, China ....................................................................................................................... 34 Steel Price, USA ......................................................................................................................... 34 Steel Price, Western Europe ...................................................................................................... 34 Stock Market Index ..................................................................................................................... 35 Strawberry Price ......................................................................................................................... 35 Sugar Price, European Union ..................................................................................................... 35 Sugar Price, USA ....................................................................................................................... 35 Sugar Price, World ..................................................................................................................... 35 Tea Price .................................................................................................................................... 36 Tin Price ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Tobacco Price ............................................................................................................................ 36 Total Gross Loans ...................................................................................................................... 36 Total Precipitation ....................................................................................................................... 36
Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................ 37 Turmeric Price ............................................................................................................................ 37 Unemployment Rate ................................................................................................................... 37 Unit Labour Cost Index ............................................................................................................... 37 Usual/Actual Weekly Working Hours .......................................................................................... 38 Wage per Hour ........................................................................................................................... 38 Wheat Price ................................................................................................................................ 38 Wool Price .................................................................................................................................. 38 Zinc Price ................................................................................................................................... 39 Seasonal Adjustment ................................................................................................................. 39 Point Increase ............................................................................................................................ 39 Growth Rates ............................................................................................................................. 39
4. Forecasting Methodology ....................................................................................................... 40 I. Euromonitor Macro Model ....................................................................................................... 40 II. Vector Error Correction Model ................................................................................................ 41 III. ARIMA Models ...................................................................................................................... 41
Data pre-processing ............................................................................................................... 41 Model selection ....................................................................................................................... 42 Forecast validation.................................................................................................................. 42 Data post-processing .............................................................................................................. 43
IV. Commodity Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 43
Some specific economic ideas applied in the model............................................................... 43 Basic modelling framework ..................................................................................................... 43 Outcomes of model solution ................................................................................................... 44
5. Business Confidence Indices: Methodology & Sources .......................................................... 45 Australia ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Austria ........................................................................................................................................ 45 Belgium ...................................................................................................................................... 46 Brazil .......................................................................................................................................... 47 Bulgaria ...................................................................................................................................... 48 Canada ....................................................................................................................................... 49 Chile ........................................................................................................................................... 49 China .......................................................................................................................................... 50 Colombia .................................................................................................................................... 51 Costa Rica .................................................................................................................................. 51 Croatia ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Czech Republic .......................................................................................................................... 53 Denmark ..................................................................................................................................... 53 Ecuador ...................................................................................................................................... 54 Estonia ....................................................................................................................................... 55 Finland........................................................................................................................................ 56 France ........................................................................................................................................ 57 Georgia....................................................................................................................................... 58 Germany ..................................................................................................................................... 58 Greece........................................................................................................................................ 59 Hong Kong, China ...................................................................................................................... 60
Hungary ...................................................................................................................................... 61 India ........................................................................................................................................... 62 Indonesia .................................................................................................................................... 63 Ireland ........................................................................................................................................ 63 Israel........................................................................................................................................... 64 Italy ............................................................................................................................................. 64 Japan.......................................................................................................................................... 65 Latvia .......................................................................................................................................... 65 Lithuania ..................................................................................................................................... 66 Macedonia .................................................................................................................................. 68 Malaysia ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Mexico ........................................................................................................................................ 69 Netherlands ................................................................................................................................ 70 New Zealand .............................................................................................................................. 70 Nigeria ........................................................................................................................................ 71 Norway ....................................................................................................................................... 72 Peru ............................................................................................................................................ 72 Philippines .................................................................................................................................. 73 Poland ........................................................................................................................................ 73 Portugal ...................................................................................................................................... 74 Qatar .......................................................................................................................................... 75 Romania ..................................................................................................................................... 76 Russia ........................................................................................................................................ 77 Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................................... 78 Singapore ................................................................................................................................... 78 Slovakia ...................................................................................................................................... 79 Slovenia...................................................................................................................................... 80 South Africa ................................................................................................................................ 81 South Korea ............................................................................................................................... 81 Spain .......................................................................................................................................... 82 Sweden ...................................................................................................................................... 83 Switzerland ................................................................................................................................. 83 Thailand...................................................................................................................................... 84 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................ 85 United Arab Emirates ................................................................................................................. 86 United Kingdom .......................................................................................................................... 86 USA ............................................................................................................................................ 87
6. Consumer Confidence Indices: Methodology & Sources ........................................................ 89 Algeria ........................................................................................................................................ 89 Argentina .................................................................................................................................... 89 Australia ..................................................................................................................................... 90 Austria ........................................................................................................................................ 91 Belgium ...................................................................................................................................... 91 Brazil .......................................................................................................................................... 92 Bulgaria ...................................................................................................................................... 93 Canada ....................................................................................................................................... 94 Chile ........................................................................................................................................... 94
China .......................................................................................................................................... 95 Colombia .................................................................................................................................... 96 Costa Rica .................................................................................................................................. 97 Croatia ........................................................................................................................................ 97 Czech Republic .......................................................................................................................... 98 Denmark ..................................................................................................................................... 99 Dominican Republic ................................................................................................................... 99 Ecuador .................................................................................................................................... 100 Egypt ........................................................................................................................................ 101 Estonia ..................................................................................................................................... 101 Finland...................................................................................................................................... 102 France ...................................................................................................................................... 103 Georgia..................................................................................................................................... 104 Germany ................................................................................................................................... 105 Greece...................................................................................................................................... 105 Hungary .................................................................................................................................... 106 Indonesia .................................................................................................................................. 107 Ireland ...................................................................................................................................... 108 Israel......................................................................................................................................... 109 Italy ........................................................................................................................................... 109 Japan........................................................................................................................................ 110 Jordan ...................................................................................................................................... 110 Kuwait....................................................................................................................................... 111 Latvia ........................................................................................................................................ 112 Lithuania ................................................................................................................................... 112 Malaysia ................................................................................................................................... 113 Mexico ...................................................................................................................................... 114 Netherlands .............................................................................................................................. 114 New Zealand ............................................................................................................................ 115 Nigeria ...................................................................................................................................... 116 Norway ..................................................................................................................................... 116 Peru .......................................................................................................................................... 117 Philippines ................................................................................................................................ 117 Poland ...................................................................................................................................... 118 Portugal .................................................................................................................................... 119 Qatar ........................................................................................................................................ 119 Romania ................................................................................................................................... 120 Russia ...................................................................................................................................... 121 Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................................. 122 Slovakia .................................................................................................................................... 122 Slovenia.................................................................................................................................... 123 South Africa .............................................................................................................................. 124 South Korea ............................................................................................................................. 125 Spain ........................................................................................................................................ 125 Sweden .................................................................................................................................... 126 Switzerland ............................................................................................................................... 127 Taiwan ...................................................................................................................................... 127
Thailand.................................................................................................................................... 128 Tunisia ...................................................................................................................................... 129 Turkey ...................................................................................................................................... 130 Ukraine ..................................................................................................................................... 130 United Arab Emirates ............................................................................................................... 131 United Kingdom ........................................................................................................................ 132 Uruguay .................................................................................................................................... 132 USA .......................................................................................................................................... 133 Vietnam .................................................................................................................................... 134
7. House Price Indices: Methodology & Sources ...................................................................... 136 Argentina .................................................................................................................................. 136 Australia ................................................................................................................................... 136 Austria ...................................................................................................................................... 137 Belarus ..................................................................................................................................... 137 Belgium .................................................................................................................................... 138 Brazil ........................................................................................................................................ 138 Bulgaria .................................................................................................................................... 139 Canada ..................................................................................................................................... 139 Chile ......................................................................................................................................... 140 China ........................................................................................................................................ 141 Colombia .................................................................................................................................. 141 Croatia ...................................................................................................................................... 142 Czech Republic ........................................................................................................................ 142 Denmark ................................................................................................................................... 142 Estonia ..................................................................................................................................... 143 Finland...................................................................................................................................... 143 France ...................................................................................................................................... 144 Georgia..................................................................................................................................... 145 Germany ................................................................................................................................... 145 Greece...................................................................................................................................... 146 Hong Kong, China .................................................................................................................... 147 Hungary .................................................................................................................................... 147 India ......................................................................................................................................... 148 Indonesia .................................................................................................................................. 148 Ireland ...................................................................................................................................... 149 Israel......................................................................................................................................... 150 Italy ........................................................................................................................................... 150 Japan........................................................................................................................................ 151 Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................................... 151 Latvia ........................................................................................................................................ 152 Lithuania ................................................................................................................................... 152 Macedonia ................................................................................................................................ 153 Malaysia ................................................................................................................................... 154 Mexico ...................................................................................................................................... 154 Netherlands .............................................................................................................................. 155 New Zealand ............................................................................................................................ 155 Norway ..................................................................................................................................... 156
Peru .......................................................................................................................................... 156 Philippines ................................................................................................................................ 157 Poland ...................................................................................................................................... 157 Portugal .................................................................................................................................... 158 Qatar ........................................................................................................................................ 158 Romania ................................................................................................................................... 159 Russia ...................................................................................................................................... 159 Serbia ....................................................................................................................................... 160 Singapore ................................................................................................................................. 160 Slovakia .................................................................................................................................... 161 Slovenia.................................................................................................................................... 162 South Africa .............................................................................................................................. 163 South Korea ............................................................................................................................. 163 Spain ........................................................................................................................................ 163 Sweden .................................................................................................................................... 164 Switzerland ............................................................................................................................... 165 Taiwan ...................................................................................................................................... 165 Thailand.................................................................................................................................... 165 Turkey ...................................................................................................................................... 166 Ukraine ..................................................................................................................................... 166 United Arab Emirates ............................................................................................................... 167 United Kingdom ........................................................................................................................ 167 USA .......................................................................................................................................... 168
8. Stock Market Indices ............................................................................................................ 170
ABOUT MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY DATA
Euromonitor International’s high frequency database incorporates a wide range of short-term
economic indicators across 80 countries including short-term forecasts, enabling analysis of
economic trends and developments in real time.
1. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
HOW OFTEN DO YOU UPDATE THE DATA? Our data is updated two times per month, with our analysts closely monitoring the release
schedules of statistical offices and central banks to ensure that our database always contains the
latest available data. The forecasts are also updated twice a month by our expert macroeconomic
modelling team.
WHY IS DATA OFTEN REVISED? Statistical offices frequently revise their data as more information becomes available or as they
find better methods to capture trends. We constantly review the entire time series of data to ensure
that we capture these changes to historical data.
WHY ARE SOME DATASETS ONLY AVAILABLE QUARTERLY? GDP, Real GDP Growth, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Private Final Consumption
Expenditure, Exports of Goods and Services, Imports of Goods and Services, Gross Fixed Capital
Formation, Increases in Stocks are all only available quarterly. These datasets are major
components of National Accounts data. The international methodology, which most economies
follow, only requires quarterly data. In addition, some indicators for which monthly data availability is
low are available quarterly.
WHAT DOES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MEAN? Data is often seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal calendar influences impacting
on a series. Seasonal effects usually reflect the influence of the seasons themselves either directly
(e.g. there is less construction in winter) or through social conventions (e.g. moving holidays such as
Easter and Eid have an impact on working days and Christmas has a huge impact on retail sales).
For the datasets that include countries with missing seasonally adjusted data, we model the missing
series using STL/X-12 seasonal decomposition procedures. To correctly detect and remove the
seasonal component, the decomposition procedures are not implemented if the time series is
shorter than 3 years.
SHOULD I CHOOSE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OR NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED?
Seasonally adjusted data removes “noise” from the time series allowing for a more thorough
understanding of trends. Many analysts prefer seasonally adjusted data because they want to see
those characteristics that seasonal movements tend to mask, especially changes in the direction of
the series.
NOT ALL OF THE DATA I SELECT IS DISPLAYED. WHY? Data is not always available for all countries and all indicators; nor are they always available in
both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted form. If the data you choose is unavailable,
change the frequency and/or the seasonal adjustment and try again.
HOW DO YOU FORECAST THE DATA? To arrive at short-term forecasts for our set of monthly and quarterly data, we use econometric
models developed by our expert macroeconomic modelling team as well as judgemental input.
Country-specific indicators are forecasted using Euromonitor Macro Model, Vector Error Correction
Model (VECM) and ARIMA methods, while commodities are considered a separate group and thus
are forecasted using an econometric model reflecting both common and specific factors that affect
commodity markets. The model based forecasts are then revised by imposing certain restrictions
that ensure internal consistency of the forecasts and supplementing them with additional economic
information from a network of in-country experts. For more detailed information see section 4
“Forecasting methodology”.
2. METHODOLOGY
Euromonitor International’s team of economic analysts research part-year economic data from a
range of national and international sources. Our data is updated two times per month, with our
analysts closely monitoring the release schedules of statistical offices and central banks to ensure
that our database always contains the latest available data.
The time series runs from January 2000 (where available) until the latest month.
Statistical offices frequently revise their data backwards – we capture these changes and revise
the entire time series as necessary.
All indices (with the exception of consumer and business confidence) have been re-based to 2010
= 100 to facilitate cross-country comparisons.
Wherever possible, both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data has been
researched. For the datasets that include countries with missing seasonally adjusted data, we model
the missing series using STL/X-12 seasonal decomposition procedures. To correctly detect and
remove the seasonal component, the decomposition procedures are not implemented if the time
series is shorter than 3 years.
Business confidence, consumer confidence and house price data are not strictly cross country
comparable due to varying methodology across countries. For cross-country comparison of business
confidence and consumer confidence, we calculate a standardised index (z-score) indicating the
number of standard deviations each observation is above or below the long-term mean. The further
the index is from zero the better/worse the confidence is compared to the long-term average. Full
information regarding the source, scope and compilation of consumer and business confidence
surveys used can be found in the Methodology & Sources sections 5 and 6.
To arrive at short-term forecasts for our set of monthly and quarterly data, we use econometric
models developed by our expert macroeconomic modelling team as well as judgemental input.
Country-specific indicators are forecasted using Euromonitor Macro Model, Vector Error Correction
Model (VECM) and ARIMA methods, while commodities are considered a separate group and thus
are forecasted using an econometric model reflecting both common and specific factors that affect
commodity markets. The model based forecasts are then revised by imposing certain restrictions
that ensure internal consistency of the forecasts and supplementing them with additional economic
information from a network of in-country experts. For more detailed information see section 4
“Forecasting methodology”.
3. DEFINITIONS & SOURCES
AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS INDEX The index is compiled using the nominal prices of the following commodities: timber (logs and
sawnwood) 52.2%, cotton 11.8%, natural rubber 22.3%, tobacco 13.7%. Data is not country specific,
so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
ALMOND PRICE Average spot price of Nonpareil variety of Californian or Australian origin, 22/27 pieces/ounce,
light-medium brown coloured kernels, ex-Delhi (exclusive of VAT, other taxes and levies). The price
is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to
view data.
Source: MCX India (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited)
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
ALUMINIUM PRICE London Metal Exchange, unalloyed primary ingots, high grade, minimum 99.7% purity, settlement
price beginning 2005; previously cash price. The price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country
specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
APPLE PRICE USA, fresh market, FOB price. The price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country specific, so
in “Geographies selection” select “World” to view data.
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
BANANA PRICE Central & South America, major brands, US import price, free on truck (f.o.t.) US Gulf ports. The
price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country specific, so in “Geographies selection” select
“World” to view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
BANK NONPERFORMING LOANS TO TOTAL GROSS LOANS Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans are the value of nonperforming loans divided by the
total value of the loan portfolio (including nonperforming loans before the deduction of specific loan-
loss provisions). The loan amount recorded as nonperforming should be the gross value of the loan
as recorded on the balance sheet, not just the amount that is overdue. The last figure in time series
refers to the last available data of the corresponding year.
Source: International Monetary Fund
Frequency: Quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Both SA and NSA data is available
BARLEY PRICE Barley (US) feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days To-Arrive, delivered Minneapolis from May 2012 onwards;
previously April Canadian, feed, Western No. 1, Winnipeg Commodity Exchange, spot, wholesale
farmers' price. The price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country specific, so in “Geographies
selection” select “World” to view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
BEEF PRICE Australia/New Zealand, chucks and cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean, c.i.f.
U.S. port (East Coast), ex-dock, beginning November 2002; previously cow forequarters. The price
is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to
view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
BEVERAGES INDEX The index is compiled using the nominal prices of the following commodities: coffee 45.7%, cocoa
beans 36.9%, tea 17.4%. Data is not country specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World”
to view data.
Source: World Bank
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Business confidence index measures the amount of optimism or pessimism that business
managers have with regard to current situation and the prospects of their organizations. Survey
design and methodology vary from country to country depending on the source. Please see section
5 for further information. For cross-country comparison, a standardised business confidence index is
calculated, indicating the number of standard deviations each observation is above or below the
long-term mean. The further the index is from zero the better/worse the confidence is compared to
the long-term average.
Sources: Central Banks, National Statistics Offices, European Commission, trade sources
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
CAPITAL TO ASSETS The ratio provides an indication of financial leverage—that is, the extent to which assets are
funded by other than own funds—and another measure of capital adequacy of the deposit-taking
sector. The ratio is calculated by taking capital and reserves as the numerator, and all nonfinancial
and financial assets as the denominator.
Source: International Monetary Fund
Frequency: Quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Both SA and NSA data is available
CARDAMOM PRICE Average spot price of Cardamom 6-7mm bold bulk with minimum of 375-385 grams per litre
density, Ex-Vandanmedu, Dist. Idukki, Kerala. The price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not country
specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to view data.
Source: MCX India (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited)
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATE Central bank policy rate is the rate that is used by central bank to implement or signal its monetary
policy stance. It is most commonly set by the central banks’ policy making committees.
Sources: Central Banks, National Statistics Offices, IMF
Frequency: Monthly and quarterly
Seasonal adjustment: Only NSA data is available
CHICKEN PRICE United States, broiler/fryer, whole birds, 2.5 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed, Georgia
Dock preliminary weighted average, wholesale. The price is in nominal US dollars. Data is not
country specific, so in “Geographies selection” select “World” to view data.
The results are shown as the balance of individual questions. The balance is the difference
between positive and negative answers expressed in percentage. The balance shows the movement
of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations).
The confidence indicator in manufacturing is defined as the arithmetic mean of the balances to the
questions on production expectation, assessment of overall order books and assessment of stocks
of finished products (the latter with inverted sign).
The index values range from -100 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to +100
(when all respondents have positive confidence).
SOUTH AFRICA
Name of survey
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index
Source
Bureau for Economic Research
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
The survey results are obtained from questionnaires completed by senior executives in the trade,
manufacturing and building sector. Questionnaires are sent to 1,400 senior executives in the
building sector, 1,400 in the trade sector and 1,000 in manufacturing.
Survey questions
The business survey questionnaire contains a small number of questions. These questions are
qualitative in nature, e.g. “Compared to the same quarter a year ago, are the volume of sales up, the
same or down?”. No figures are requested.
Index construction
The index values range from 0 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 100 (when all
respondents have positive confidence).
SOUTH KOREA
Name of survey
Business Survey Index
Source
The Bank of Korea
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
The survey covers 2,862 corporations in various industries which are selected using stratified
systematic sampling
Survey questions
Items surveyed: business conditions (overall conditions), inventories, facilities investment,
production facilities, labour force situation, new orders, production, sales (domestic and exports),
capacity utilization, sales prices, raw material purchase prices, profitability, financial situation,
operational difficulties.
Index construction
The survey responses are translated into indices in accordance with the following formulas:
Where:
ωi – each sub-sector’s GDP weight
BSIi – each sub-sector’s BSI
SPAIN
Name of survey
Business Confidence Indicator
Source
National Statistics Institute of Spain
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
The sample is comprised of about 8,000 establishments.
Survey questions
Not available
Index construction
The following indicators are published from the question regarding performance of business in the
establishment:
1. Harmonised situation indicator: Situation balance (difference between the % of positive and negative responses). This is abbreviated as "Situation”.
2. Harmonised expectation indicator: Balance of expectations (difference between the % of positive and negative responses). This is abbreviated as "Expectations”.
3. Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI): Geometric average of the situation balance and expectations, suitably standardising the results.
Details of the calculation for each quarter would be specifically as follows:
Confidence may, therefore, fluctuate between the extremes of -100 and +100. When rebased to
Q1 2013=100 according to the source methodology, the index ranges are approximately [66; 198].
SWEDEN
Name of survey
Monthly Business Tendency Survey
Source
National Institute of Economic Research of Sweden
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Each month, around 6,000 firms are interviewed. Sampling of firms takes place through the
Business Register of Statistics Sweden and is renewed each year. This is done by replacing some
firms while all firms are assigned new weights. Firms with more than 100 employees are used
permanently for all surveys. Samples are stratified by size and industry.
Survey questions
The survey covers the present and expected future situation in business conditions, including
demand, output volume, new orders, inventories, selling prices, employment situation.
Index construction
Survey responses are processed by the sample's industry and stratum (size category) by
weighing the response of each firm by company size. The weights vary depending on the question
and industry. For the manufacturing industry, value added is the main weight used, but the number
of employees is also used for questions referring to employment. For the construction industry, the
retail trade and service sectors, the number of employees is used. The weights for the various
response alternatives are subsequently totalled for each stratum. Before the responses are totalled
by industry, the different size categories are weighted relative to the population. While calculating
the confidence indicators, the net balances for the questions are seasonally adjusted and
transformed (standardised) so that they have the same mean and standard deviation. In the next
step, these seasonally-adjusted and standardised net balances are averaged. This standardisation
process avoids movements in the confidence indicators being dominated by the questions that
historically vary the most. Finally, the confidence indicators are standardised to a mean of 100 and a
standard deviation of 10.
SWITZERLAND
Name of survey
Switzerland Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing
Source
OECD
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
The sample comprises 1600 enterprises and the response rate is 80%. The manufacturing
industries are covered by the survey. The survey covers 22% of total employment in the
manufacturing sector.
Survey questions
Not available
Index construction
Data is presented as the balance of positive ("will increase", "increased", "too large") over
negative ("will decrease", "decreased", "too small") replies expressed as a percentage of total
replies. Responses are weighted according to the number of persons engaged in the production
process. The replies to questions relating to economic activity on the domestic market or abroad are
weighted by the corresponding shares of enterprises on each of these two markets. The indicator for
the whole industry is obtained by weighting each industry branch indicator, the weight being the
share of the branch in the total value added.
The index values range from -100 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to +100
(when all respondents have positive confidence).
THAILAND
Name of survey
Business Expectation Index
Source
Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices of Thailand
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Sample includes companies from various business branches, 30 samples per province.
Survey questions
Topics covered in the survey include:
• General business situation
• Business situation in the same sector
• Results of business operations
• Cost per unit of goods or services
• Employment situation
• Expansion of organization
In each topic, there are three types of questions:
• Compare present quarter of this year with the same quarter last year
• Compare present quarter with previous quarter of the present year
• Forecast next quarter
Index construction
Calculation steps:
1. Raw data is translated to quantity data. For answers “better/increase”, score is 1; for “unchanged”, score is 0.5; for “worse/decrease”, score is 0.
2. The estimated percentage is used to calculate the index according to the formula:
Index = % of answers “better” + (% of answers “unchanged” / 2)
The index can vary from 0 to 100, with the score of 50 meaning that the business is expected to
remain unchanged.
TURKEY
Name of survey
Real Sector Confidence Index
Source
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
The survey covers opinions of senior managers of the major private sector firms.
Survey questions
The questions cover topics on the present and expected situation of production, demand,
investment, sales, employment, capacity utilization and inflation expectations.
Index construction
The responses which are in the form of “more optimistic, the same, more pessimistic” or “up, the
same, down” are coded. The responses indicating improvement (better off) for a particular variable
are scored 1, while the responses showing no change are scored 0, and the responses showing a
worsening condition are scored -1. The questions affecting the industrial production index positively
are coded in the same direction, while those affecting adversely are coded in the reverse direction.
The diffusion index is then constructed by summing up the related encoded responses obtained
from the respondent firms.
There is no need for trend adjustment since the diffusion indexes formed by the survey data
display cyclical patterns. While choosing the appropriate questions, the economic significance is
considered, as well as the statistical methods such as the performance for leading the industrial
production index, low volatility and cross correlation. The composite index is calculated as the
equally weighted average of the sub-indices in line with the applications in the EU countries. No
base-year adjustment has been made to the index.
The index values range from 0 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 200 (when all
respondents have positive confidence).
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Name of survey
Dubai Business Survey
Source
Department of Economic Development
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
The sample includes a mix of small, medium and large enterprises in the Emirate of Dubai,
ensuring adequate representation from manufacturing, trading and services, proportionately to their
respective contributions to Dubai’s GDP.
Survey questions
In order to tap “business outlook” or expectations, the survey focuses on key indicators, such as
sales, selling prices, volumes sold, profits and number of employees. Respondents are asked to
indicate if they expected an “increase”, “decrease” or “no change” in these indicators.
Index construction
The Business Confidence Index (BCI) is calculated as a weighted average score of the following
“business outlook” indicators:
1. Selling Prices 2. Volumes Sold 3. Number of Employees 4. Profits
For each indicator, “resulting scores” are calculated using the net balance method: (% of positive
responses - % of negative responses) + 100. For the Composite Business Confidence Index, the
resulting scores are multiplied with their corresponding weights to arrive at a weighted average
Index score. This index is finally rebased so that Q2, 2011 = 100. Taking account of the economy’s
composition by firm size, the index is weighted by the relative contributions of SMEs and large
businesses to Dubai’s GDP. The final result is the following index:
Overall Index = 60% x (Large enterprise Index) + 40% x (SME Index).
UNITED KINGDOM
Name of survey
BDO Monthly Business Trends
Source
BDO
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Over 4,000 different respondents from companies in a range of different industries
Survey questions
Not available
Index construction
The indices are calculated by taking a weighted average of the results of the UK main business
surveys. It incorporates the results of the quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey (and the CBI
Monthly Trends Enquiry which is carried out in the intervening months); the Bank of England Agents’
summary of business conditions; and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply’s Surveys of
Manufacturing and of Services.
The surveys are weighted together by a three-stage process. First, the results of each individual
survey are correlated against the relevant economic cycles for manufacturing and services. This
determines the extent of the correlations between each set of survey results and the relevant timing
relationships. Then the surveys are weighted together based on their scaling, on the extent of these
correlations and the timing of their relationships with the relevant reference cycles. Finally, the
weighted total is scaled into an index with 100 as the mean, the average of the past two cyclical
peaks as 110 and the average of the past two cyclical troughs as 90.
USA
Name of survey
Small Business Economic Trends
Source
National Federation of Independent Business
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB's membership
Survey questions
• Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand
substantially? Why?
• About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business
conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse?
• Were your net earnings or “income” (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar
quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before?
• If higher or lower, what is the most important reason?
• During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same
as it was for the quarter before?
• Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services
that you will sell during the next three months?
• How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago?
• In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or
services?
• During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease,
or stay about the same?
• If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many
qualified applicants were there for the position(s)?
• Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now?
• In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people
working for you?
• Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation?
• Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?
• Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago?
• During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs?
• Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three
months?
• If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business
activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three
months ago?
• If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity
(payback period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay?
• During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories?
• At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate?
• Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your
inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them?
• During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase
equipment, buildings, or land?
• If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects?
• Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures
for plant and/or physical equipment?
• What is the single most important problem facing your business today?
• Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below
• How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself?
Prices, Economic Indicators (availability of goods and services, interest rate, savings). All
the variables of the Consumer Expectation Index are surveyed as to what the situation will
be six months into the future; prices are additionally surveyed for three months into the
future.
Index construction
The Balance Score Method (net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where
the index is above 100 points indicate optimism (positive responses) and vice versa.
The sample has a significance level of 99% and a sampling error of 2%.
Components of Consumer Confidence Index are calculated by a weighted average method, i.e.
with adding city weight based on the number of households and contribution of Gross Regional
Domestic Product household consumptions per province. The index values range from 0 (when all
respondents have negative confidence) to 200 (when all respondents have positive confidence).
IRELAND
Name of survey
KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Irish consumer sentiment survey
Source
KBC Bank Ireland; Economic and Social Research Institute
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of a minimum of 1,100 Irish households
Survey questions
The questionnaire used in the monthly survey contains a series of questions that record
respondents’ perceptions on recent and likely future trends in the economy. The areas addressed
include the following:
1. assessment of changes in the general economy in the previous 12 months as well as
expectations about likely future trends in the next 12 months;
2. perceptions of recent trends in unemployment;
3. views on recent trends and likely future outturns in terms of consumer prices;
4. recent trends and likely future trends in the financial situation of the respondent’s
household;
5. views on whether or not the respondent thinks it is currently a good or bad time to incur
expenditure on a number of major household items;
6. likely future outturns in terms of the respondent’s ability to save.
Index construction
The data is obtained during the first two weeks of the month. The data is re-weighted in line with
gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data is fully representative of the
national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent
giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for
each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are
excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number.
The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total (Q4 1995 = 100).
ISRAEL
Name of survey
Bank Hapoalim and TNS Teleseker Israeli Consumer Confidence Index
Source
Bank Hapoalim and TNS Teleseker
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 1,000 Israeli households
Survey questions
The survey questions about:
1. Current Economic Conditions.
2. Current Employment situation in the country.
3. Economic Condition expectations in 6 months.
4. Employment expectations in 6 months.
5. Income expectations in 6 months.
6. Shopping Climate.
7. Public feeling regarding the nation’s general direction.
Index construction
Index is expressed as the balance of positive minus negative answers with the base April 2002 =
100. Three answer choices are given: positive, neutral and negative.
ITALY
Name of survey
Consumer Confidence Climate Indicator (Indicatore del Clima di Fiducia dei Consumatori)
Source
Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica (Isae)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of households across four regions: North West, North East, Centre and
Mezzogiorno.
Survey questions
The categories include:
1. General and households' economic situations;
2. Unemployment forecast;
3. Present ability and future opportunity to save;
4. Propensity to purchase consumer durables;
5. Households' budget.
Index construction
The Italian consumer confidence indicator is an overall synthetic indicator of the consumer survey.
It is elaborated on the basis of nine questions considered most suitable to evaluate consumers'
optimism/pessimism about the economy. (Net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the
index. The index is rebased to 2010=100.
JAPAN
Name of survey
Consumer Confidence Index
Source
Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
6,720 households (4,704 households with more than two-persons, 2,016 one-person households)
are sampled using a three-level stratified random sampling method of city/town/village, local unit and
household.
Survey questions
Consumer perceptions of the following four categories are surveyed: overall livelihood, income
growth, employment and willingness to buy durable goods. Respondents are asked to evaluate on a
scale of one to five what they consider the prospects to be for the subjects over the next six months.
Index construction
The consumer confidence index is then calculated by simply averaging the four consumer
perception indexes (original figures). The index values range from 0 (when all respondents have
negative confidence) to 100 (when all respondents have positive confidence).
JORDAN
Name of survey
Bayt.com Middle East Consumer Confidence Index
Source
Bayt.com
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Adult males and females aged 18 plus years
Survey questions
The survey questions include topics such as current and future views on personal financial
situation, country’s economy, business conditions, job availability and satisfaction.
Index construction
The index values range from 0 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 200 (when all
respondents have positive confidence).
KUWAIT
Name of survey
ARA Consumer Confidence Index
Source
ARA Marketing Research & Consultancy
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Not available
Survey questions
Not available
Index construction
The general Consumer Confidence Index is based on six indices which the researchers at ARA
use to measure the level of the consumer satisfaction and optimism. These are:
1. Current Economic Situation Index
2. Expected Economic Situation Index
3. Current Personal Income Index
4. Expected Personal Income Index
5. Current Employment Opportunities Index
6. Purchase of Durables Index
LATVIA
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 1,000 Latvian households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
LITHUANIA
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 1,200 Lithuanian households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
MALAYSIA
Name of survey
Consumer Sentiments Index
Source
Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Sample of over 1,200 households in Peninsular Malaysia
Survey questions
Respondents are asked about perceptions on their household's current and expected financial
positions and their employment outlook. The survey also seeks to uncover general economic
conditions such as inflation as seen from the consumers' perspective. Questions relating to their
plans to buy houses, new or used cars and other major consumer durables are also asked.
Index construction
The index values range from 0 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 200 (when all
respondents have positive confidence).
MEXICO
Name of survey
Consumer Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza del Consumidor)
Source
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (Inegi)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
2,336 urban households at national level.
Survey questions
1. Compared to the economic situation that the members of the household had 1 year ago,
how do you rate your economic situation today?
2. How do you consider the economic situation of the members of the household will be 12
months from now, compared to the current situation?
3. How do you think the economic situation of the country is today compared to 12 months
ago?
4. How do you consider the economic situation of the country will be 12 months from now,
compared to the current situation?
5. Comparing your current economic situation with that one year ago, how do you rate the
possibility that you or one of the members of the household make purchases like furniture,
TV set, washing machine, other white goods, etc.?
Index construction
In each of the first four questions, consumers have five options to choose an answer from: Much
better, Better, The same, Worse and Much worse. In the fifth question the options are: Higher, Equal
and Lower. The monthly value of the indicator for a given question results of the monthly average of
the (expanded) percentages of the answers of households to that question. The overall index
averages all five indicators.
NETHERLANDS
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 1,500 Dutch households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
NEW ZEALAND
Name of survey
The Westpac McDermott Miller survey of consumer confidence
Source
Westpac McDermott Miller
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Random sample of 1,500 New Zealand households
Survey questions
The following questions are asked:
1. Are you better or worse off financially now than a year ago?
2. Do you expect to be better or worse off financially this time next year?
3. Do you expect good or bad economic times over the next 12 months in New Zealand?
4. Do you expect good or bad economic times over the next 5 years in New Zealand?
5. Is this a good or bad time to buy a major household item?
Index construction
Index is expressed as percentage of “positive” responses minus the percentage of “negative”
responses, plus 100. Neutral responses are counted as zero. Values range from 0, when all
respondents choose the negative option to +200, when all respondents choose the positive option.
NIGERIA
Name of survey
Consumer Expectations Survey
Source
Central Bank of Nigeria
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Random sample of about 1,800 Nigerian households
Survey questions
The survey questions cover the expectations of macroeconomic conditions, family financial
situation (level of savings, investments, other assets including cash at hand and outstanding debts)
and family income.
Index construction
The total index is determined as the average of three measures (macroeconomic conditions,
family financial situation and family income). Each of the three sub-indices is computed as the
percentage share of respondents that answered affirmatively less the percentage share of
respondents that answered negatively for a given indicator. The index values range from -100 (when
all respondents have negative confidence) to 100 (when all respondents have positive confidence).
NORWAY
Name of survey
Forventningsbarometeret (Expectations Survey)
Source
TNS Gallup; Finance Norway
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Sample of about 1,100 Norwegian households
Survey questions
The following questions are asked:
1. Would you say that the economy of your household is better or worse than a year ago, or is
there no difference?
2. Do you think that the economy of your household is going to be better or worse in a year or
will there be no difference?
3. If we look at the economic situation in Norway, would you say that the economy of the
country in general is better or worse than a year ago, or is there no difference?
4. Do you think that the economic situation in Norway is going to be better or worse in a year,
or will there be no difference?
5. Do you think that now is a good time for the population to buy large household items or do
you think it is a bad time?
Index construction
The index is the difference between the percentage of optimistic and pessimistic responses for
each question divided by 5. The index values range from -100 (when all respondents have negative
confidence) to 100 (when all respondents have positive confidence). The data are seasonally
adjusted.
PERU
Name of survey
Apoyo Consultoria Consumer Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza del Consumidor de Apoyo
Consultoria)
Source
Apoyo Consultoria
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Not available
Survey questions
Not available
Index construction
Not available
PHILIPPINES
Name of survey
Consumer Expectations Survey
Source
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas; National Statistics Office
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Sample of over 5,000 households
Survey questions
Survey questions are based on three topics concerning the present situation and future
expectations of the households: overall conditions of the economy, household finances and
household income.
Index construction
The index is computed as the percentage of households that answered affirmatively less the
percentage of households that answered negatively with respect to their views on a given indicator.
The index values range from -100 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 100 (when
all respondents have positive confidence).
POLAND
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Sample of 1,000 households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
PORTUGAL
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 2,100 Portuguese households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
QATAR
Name of survey
Consumer Confidence Index
Source
Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Not available
Survey questions
The index is based on five questions of which two sub-indices are composed as follows:
1. The present situation index, which is composed of: a. The respondents’ evaluation of the present economic situation; b. The respondents’ evaluation of the present job opportunities.
2. The future expectations index, which is composed of: a. The respondents’ expectations of the future situation of the economy (12 months in
the future); b. The respondents’ expectations of the future job opportunities (12 months in the
future); c. The respondents’ expectations of the future financial status for them and for their
households (12 months in the future).
Index construction
The index is calculated based on the balance of assessments of the responses of the relevant
questions. The index value ranges from 0 to 200 points. It reaches its maximum if all the
respondents’ opinions are positive. The index becomes neutral (100) when the positive and negative
opinions are equal. If it is lower than 100 points, then it corresponds to a negative evaluation of the
economic situation of Qatar.
ROMANIA
Name of survey
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator
Source
European Commission; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Frequency
Monthly
Scope
Random sample of 1,000 Romanian households
Survey questions
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions:
1. How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12
months?
2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the
next 12 months?
3. How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the
next 12 months?
4. Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?
Index construction
The Joint Harmonized EU Consumer Confidence Indicator is based on answers to four questions
with five answer alternatives to each question (a lot better, a little better, the same, a little worse, a
lot worse). The index is constructed with double weights on the extremes. Responses “a lot better”
and “a lot worse” get the weight 1 and “a little better” and “a little worse” get the weight 1/2, and “the
same” has zero weight. Values range from −100, when all respondents choose the most negative
option, to +100, when all respondents choose the most positive answers.
RUSSIA
Name of survey
Index of Consumer Confidence
Source
Federal State Statistics Service
Frequency
Quarterly
Scope
Territorial multistage sample of 5,000 people aged 16 and over living in private households in all
the regions of Russia.
Survey questions
The topics asked in the survey include:
1. The economic situation of Russia (current status and expected changes in the short
and long term)
2. The economic situation of the administrative division where the household lives
3. The expected changes in prices
4. The expected change in the number of unemployed
5. The personal financial situation (current, past and expected changes)
6. Conditions for major purchases and savings
The specific answers to the questions are provided by the following options:
1. Definitely positive/negative (very good, very favourable/very bad, very unfavourable)
2. Rather positive/negative (good, rather good/bad, rather bad)
3. Neutral (average, about the same)
Index construction
Individual indexes are calculated based on the balance of assessments of the responses (in
percentages) of the relevant questions. Definitely positive/negative responses are weighted by 1;
rather positive/negative by 1/2; and neutral responses are disregarded.
The Index of Consumer Confidence is the arithmetic mean of five Individual Indexes covering Past
and Current (1) and Expected Changes (2) to the personal financial situation; Past and Current (3)
and Expected Changes (4) to the economic situation in Russia; and Conditions for major purchases
(5).
The index values range from -100 (when all respondents have negative confidence) to 100 (when
all respondents have positive confidence).
SAUDI ARABIA
Name of survey
Bayt.com Middle East Consumer Confidence Index
Source
Bayt.com
Definition
Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic well-being of a country. It is a reflection of
consumer satisfaction levels and expectations based on various factors in the economy - inflation,