ABOUT EXSS (EXTENDED SNAPSHOT TOOL) ExSS is an “input‐output” type static model consists of simultaneous equations with around 6000 variables. ExSS describes Socio‐economic activity, Energy consumption, Power generation, Technology diffusion and GHG emissions in a particular future year. ExSS is based on the idea of “back‐casting” approach and used to “Design” a future society as a LCD in a consistent and quantitative manner. ExSS has been used for development of low‐carbon scenarios in several nations and cities in Asia. 1
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ABOUT EXSS (EXTENDED SNAPSHOT TOOL)
ExSS is an “input‐output” type static model consists of simultaneous equations with around 6000 variables.
ExSS describes Socio‐economic activity, Energy consumption, Power generation, Technology diffusion and GHG emissions in a particular future year.
ExSS is based on the idea of “back‐casting” approach and used to “Design” a future society as a LCD in a consistentand quantitative manner.
ExSS has been used for development of low‐carbon scenarios in several nations and cities in Asia.
1
PROCEDURE• Area• Base year• Target year• Scenario name • LCS target• Unit• Classification
• Population growth• Household size• GDP growth• Industrial structure• Transport demand
• Residential• Commercial• Industry• Passenger and freight Transport
• Power supply• Carbon sink
• Demography• Economy• Transport• Building• Energy demand• Energy efficiency• Power supply• Emission factor
• Currently existing technologies• Future innovative technologies
Notes:• Effects of mitigation measures such as additional policies promoting modal shift, public‐enlightenment actions are not considered in the model.
• Such effects are taken into account as changes of service demand outside the model, and given to the model as service demand change.
Technology database shall be arranged to match each
country’s situation.
CHARACTERISTICS OF ENDUSE
7
• What is AIM/Enduse?• Bottom-up model with detail technology selection
framework• Individual technologies
- air conditioner- vehicles- machinery, etc.
• What can be assessed?• Technological transition over time• Energy consumption• GHG emissions• Cost of mitigation actions
8
DATA SOURCES
Category Data Information source
Demography Population and number of household
Indonesian population census, BPS-Indonesia
Economy Input-output table Indonesian Input-Output table, BPS-Indonesia
TransportPassenger transport volume
Transportation statistics, Ministry of transportation
Freight transport volume AIM database
Energy
Energy demand and supply
National energy balance, Pusdatin-MEMR
Energy demand by industry AIM database
9
ASSUMPTIONS
10
Category Assumption Reference
Population 220 million (2005)256 million (2020)
United Nation StatisticsSecond National Communications
Household size 3.68 persons/household -
GDP growth rate
6.6 %/year (2011-2015)7.2 %/year (2016-2020)
Second National Communications
Industrial structure
More share of -Agriculture-Food and Beverage-Tertiary Indutrieswill increase.
-
TransportThe share of motorcycle and car will slight increace in Baseline scenario.
-
END-USER ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES
Note: Penetration share of BAT in industry sector 30% means that in 2020 the technology used in industries will comprise 30% BAT and 70% existing
technology (less efficient).
Sector Penetration share of BAT
Efficiency improvement of BAT
compared to existing device
Remarks
Industry 30% 10 – 30% In the model this efficiency improvement varies, depend on the type of device (not sectoral aggregate)
Commercial 15% 20 ‐ 30%
Residential 10% 10 ‐ 20%
RESULT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES
Unit 2005 2020 Baseline 2020 CM 2020Baseline
/20052020CM
/2005Population Million 219 261 261 1.19 1.19
Household Million household 60 71 71 1.19 1.19
GDP Trillion Rupiah 1,758 4,440 4,440 2.53 2.53
Per capita GDP Million Rupiah 8,019 17,010 17,010 2.12 2.12
Freight Transport Million t-km 273,575 708,017 705,432 2.59 2.58
12
GROSS OUTPUT
13
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2005 2020
Trilli
on R
upia
h
TertiarySecondaryPrimary
3,533
8,983
• Gross output will become 2.5 times from 2005.• The highest increase is Secondary industries. It will be 2.6 times, or 2,788
Trillion Rupiah growth in 2020.
• Both modal share and transport volume of private vehicle increase in 2020 Baseline.• In 2020 CM, it is assumed that share of train increase, the volume of train become larger.• Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries.
PROJECTED TRANSPORT VOLUME
Passenger transport
14
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2020Baseline
2020CM
Billion
Passenger‐km
Bicycle
Walk
Airplane
Ship
Motorcycle
Train
Bus
Vehicle
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2020Baseline
2020CM
Billio
n t-k
m
Airplane
Ship
Train
Vehicle
Freight transport
ASSUMPTION IN BASELINE SCENARIO
Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydropower Biomass Geothermal
Energy Efficiency Improvement (EEI): No change in Baseline scenarioDiffusion rate:• The share of Biomass use seems too large in 2005 result. In that case, it is assumed to be more less in 2020 Baseline and is shifted to other fuels.
•Also the share of oil seems to be too high in some places, is shifted to other fuels.
PROJECTED ENERGY MIX OF POWER SUPPLY
16
41%
53%
52%
52%
31%
4%
4%
4%
15%
26%
26%
26%
8%
10%
11%
11%
0.02%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
5%
7%
7%
7%
0.1%
0.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2005
2020 BaU
2020CM(26%)
2020CM(41%)
Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Biomassa Geothermal Solar & Wind
PROJECTED MODAL SHARE OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT
17
19%
29%
14%
11%
15%
19%
1%
2%
28%
25%
30%
15%
5%
4%
4%
3%
5%
5%
29%
5%
5%
7%
10%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2005
2020 BaU
2020 CM
Car bus train motorcycle ship airplane walk bike
PROJECTED FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
18
115
266253 251
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%) 2020 CM(41%)
Mill
ion
toe
BiofuelElectricityBiomassaGasOilCoal
PROJECTED FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
19
By Fuel By Sector
115
266253 251
-
50
100
150
200
250
30020
05
2020
BaU
2020
CM
(26%
)
2020
CM
(41%
)
Mill
ion
toe
Biofuel
Electricity
Biomassa
Gas
Oil
Coal
115
266 253 251
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005
2020
BaU
2020
CM
(26%
)
2020
CM
(41%
)
Mill
ion
toe
Commertial
Industry
Residential
Freight Transport
Passanger Transport
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTORS
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020Baseline
2020CM
Mto
eTertiary Industries
Cement
Iron & Steel
Other Industries
Construction
Chemical industry
Textile
Food & Beverage
Mining
Agriculture
Residential
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
114
253266
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
21
115
266 253 251
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%) 2020 CM(41%)
Mill
ion
toe
CommertialIndustryResidentialFreight TransportPassanger Transport