ABORIGINAL HOUSING OFFICE · Aboriginal people in NSW 3% of the NSW population –260,655 21,000 in social housing (23% of Ab. households) > 7,000 on the social housing wait-list

ABORIGINAL

HOUSING

OFFICE

Maria KevinManager, Research and Analysis

Evidence priorities in tenancy management

What we do

Demand modelling and forecasting

Targeted evaluation and research

Statistics to inform business needs

Fostering partnerships with Aboriginal research

Aboriginal people in NSW

3% of the NSW population – 260,655

21,000 in social housing (23% of Ab. households)

> 7,000 on the social housing wait-list

More likely to exit social housing tenancy (27% pa)

Strategies to increase and maintain Aboriginal tenancies

Selected projects

1. Forecasting Aboriginal Housing Demand and Supply

2. Tenant Support and Education Program Evaluation

1. AHO

HOUSING

DEMAND AND

SUPPLY MODEL

Rationale

Meet need for housing

Transparent planning and resource allocation

AHO Housing

Demand & Supply

ModelExamines the demand for houses compared to the supply of houses

projected to 2031

• Demand

• Hidden Demand*

• Supply

• We adopt a broader definition of need

• Include newly arising need through household formation

• Demand = already existing households

• Hidden demand = people predicted to form a new household if they could afford to –

o Every additional family in a household; and

o Individuals over 20 years of age in a household

• Supply = current supply of dwellings and planned dwelling builds

Definitions

Population projections for

Model build• Develop population projections – fertility, mortality and

migration

• Based on the Estimated Resident Population (ERPs) –re-working of the Census (adjusts for error)

• Aboriginal population is projected to 2031

• These projections have been used by a range agencies

What does the

current Model tell us?

• The model tells us there is an undersupply of housing for the Aboriginal Community for ALL income bands

And

• The undersupply will increase into the future if current conditions prevail

Total under supply for

Aboriginal people• The total undersupply of housing for the Aboriginal Community is

estimated to be 36,025 dwellings in 2017

• This is forecasted to increase to 90,901 in 2031 if current conditions prevail

• The undersupply is greater for Income Bands A and B

Income BandJune 2017

June 2031

Band A <45k ($2015) per year 10,855 30,124

Band B 45k-90k ($2015) per year 13,506 34,924

Band C 90k-135k ($2015) per year 3,487 8,720

Band D 135k+ ($2015) per year 6,160 15,101

TOTAL 36,025 90,901

Blacktown (C) 577

Greater Taree (C) 376

Newcastle (C) 362

Campbelltown (C) 325

Lake Macquarie (C) 323

Wollongong (C) 313

Dubbo (C) 279

Penrith (C) 276

Tamworth Regional (A) 263

Shoalhaven (C) 244

Wyong (A) 244

Coffs Harbour (C) 223

Moree Plains (A) 222

Kempsey (A) 207

Gosford (C) 205

Lismore (C) 205

Liverpool (C) 201

Tweed (A) 168

Sydney - SLA - SYD 161

Clarence Valley (A) 158

Top 20 LGAs with the Largest Gap for Band A in 2017 - <45k per year

The undersupply is larger in LGAs located in major metropolitan and in inner regional areas

The following four LGAs have the largest undersupply -

• Blacktown (C)• Greater Taree (C)• Newcastle (C)• Campbelltown (C)

The supply of housing is not uniform throughout the State

13

Blue = highest predicted undersupply

What is next in the

Model’s development?• Validating the model with 2016 Census data

• Further development with updated Census data will improve model

• Overlay of employment opportunities (infrastructure projects, NDIS)

• The role of economic conditions in housing formation

2. TENANT

SUPPORT &

EDUCATION

PROGRAM

EVALUATION

Conducted by ARTD for the Aboriginal Housing Office

• National Partnership Agreement on Remote Indigenous Housing (NPARIH) funding

• Provided grants to providers to design and implement local solutions

• Best practice design and delivery based on AHURI research

• Partnership and provides employment for Aboriginal people

Context of TSEP

Rationale

Community control =

Best practice in assisting Aboriginal people to sustain tenancies

Purpose: to meet the education and support needs of remote Aboriginal community housing tenants in NSW

Tenant Support &

Education Program (TSEP)

Housing provider Communities

Barriekneal Housing Lightning Ridge

Gunida Gunyah Collarenebri, Pilliga

Consortium Bourke/ Enngonia, Brewarrina/ Weilmoringle,

Coonamble, Dareton, Goodooga, Gulargambone,

Menindee, Murrin Bridge/ Lake Cargelligo/

Euabalong, Walgett, Wilcannia

PROGRAM COMPONENTS

COMMUNITY

ENGAGEMENT

INCENTIVES

AND REWARDS

CASE

MANAGEMENT

EDUCATION

HOUSE AND

HOME

MAINTENANCE

COMMUNITY

EVENTS

CHILDREN’S

CLUB

NEWSLETTER

REWARDS

PROGRAMS

WORKSHOPS

HOUSING

APPLICATION &

SUPPORT

HOUSING &

MAINTENANCE

PROJECT

OFFICER

YARD & HOME

CLEAN UP

INITIATIVE

TENANT

SUPPORT &

EDUCATION

PROGRAM

• How is the program working?

• What have been the results of the program?

• Should we consider long term investment in the program?

• Mixed methods using a Results Based Accountability (RBA) analytical frame

• Included a survey of over 100 tenants, interviews and forums

Evaluation scope and focus

• 767 households

• 11 Aboriginal TSEP staff

Program reach

10 Power & Water Usage

Workshops in 2017, 447people attended

9 Rental Assistance Days

with 91 people assisted

TenantEDUCATION

How much?Is anyone better

off?

• 98 placed on Origin’s hardship program

• 65 non-Origin customers linked to NSW Energy and Water Ombudsman for assistance

• Rental assistance days - 88 of the 91 attendees received a new or adjusted Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA)

• Over $13,000 was given in back pay to tenants

Tenant Education

My last bill was $2,000 – it is now

$200; the workshop taught me

things such as not to keep

boiling my jug all the time;

etc… It’s a great program for

old people – the power

workshop helped them out a lot

[community leader]

Incentives & Rewards

Before TSEP we had a very

low rental collection; now

we are getting close to

100%—96%, the highest

ever. All thanks to TSEP, the

rewards program mostly

[TSEP provider]

• 145 offered case management with 105 active cases

High Needs SUPPORT risk

How

much?

Is anyone better off?

• Only one eviction among tenants who received case management

• 53% of active cases had reduced their arrears over the period of case management

• 119 individuals supported with Housing Pathways applications

Housing ApplicationSUPPORT

How much?

Is anyone better off?

• 11 applications approved and applicants successfully housed in Bourke and Brewarrina

CONCLUSIONS

According to tenants and providers planned program outcomes are being realised –

Tenants are:

• better able to manage their finances and avert arrears

• developing practices that maintain their properties and minimise damage

• accessing appropriate support where high needs exist

Practical solutions delivering practical outcomes

CONCLUSIONS

Before TSEP, if people were in trouble with

their tenancy—with their arrears or their

maintenance issues—they would tend not to

ring us, afraid they would lose their tenancy.

They’re also answering their phones more

now we ring them [housing provider]

Directions Future

Case for further investment

Many ongoing structural challenges

TSEP well supported in communities and seen to

be addressing needs effectively

High levels of uncertainty for staff

Program Design

Future

• Build on strong educational focus

• Expand the use of partnerships

• Develop a shared framework and resources

• Extend program to other communities

Tenant Support and Education Project

A collaborative partnership between

Mid Lachlan Aboriginal Housing

Management Co-operative

Murdi Paaki Regional

Housing Corporation

Coonamble Local

Aboriginal Land Council

Bourke

(Enngonia)

Brewarrina

(Weilmoringle)

Lake Cargelligo/

Murrin Bridge

Goodooga Coonamble Menindee

Walgett Gulargambone Wilcannia

Dareton

One: Tenant Case Management

Two: Quarterly Newsletter

Three: Housing Application Support

Four: Community Family Fun Days

Five: Power and Water Usage Workshops

Additional Activities

Commonwealth Rent Assistance Support Days