ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Migration from European Accession States to the UK and Essex Lord Hanningfield Leader, Essex County Council.

Lord Hanningfield, November 2008

Migration

from European Accession

States to the UK and Essex

Lord Hanningfield

Leader, Essex County Council


Thaxted Hedingham Castle

Dedham Harwich

Essex

County


Presentation Overview

1. Essex in a nutshell

2. Context & timeline

3. Facts and trends about Eastern European migration

into Essex and the UK

4. Myth Busting

5. Issues – Data & Statistics / Economic impact / Social

Cohesion / Impact on local services


Essex County Council

• Population: 1.3m

• Ethnicity: 90.7% White British

(England 84.2%);

Other White 2.5%,

Asian 1%, (other ethnic groups

less than 1% each)

• 1,300 square miles

• £2bn gross budget

• 37,000 staff (incl. teachers)

• 12 District/Borough Councils

• Over 270 Parish Councils

• Unemployment rate 4.3% (2006/07)

- In a Nutshell


Essex County Council –

in a nutshell

Economic Development,

0.6%

Health & Leisure, 0.5%

Value for Money, 0.6%

Environment, 0.7%

Transport11.10%

Vulnerable People58.10%Education &

Skills19.30%

Waste, 6.0%

Community Leadership,

1.9%

Safety, 1.2%

Budget Overview- excl. schools


Essex – in a nutshell

• We are young and old, rural and

urban, agricultural and industrial,

coastal and commuter belt, mostly

prosperous but in parts deprived, part-

London, part-East Anglia and part-rest

of the world.

• Home to Britain's oldest recorded town

Colchester (Roman Camulodunum)

• Over 70% of the county’s land is rural

• 350 miles of coastline

• The first ever radio broadcast was

made from Chelmsford


May 2004 10 accession states join EU (A8 + Cyprus +Malta)

May 2004 UK one of only three EU countries to grant A8 workers unrestricted right to work (required to register: Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)

Jan 2007 Bulgaria and Romania join EU (required to apply for work authorisation document)

June 2008 Over 800,000 WRS registrations since 2004Over 35,000 certificates (BG and RO) since 07

Nov 2008 Points-based immigration system comes into force (not affecting EU migrants)

2009 WRS to be cancelled2014 Work authorisation scheme for BG and RO to

be cancelled

EU Accession State Migration

Context & Timeline


Eastern European Migrants

in the UK and Essex

March

2004

March

2006

June

2008

UK 341,500 562,600 805,000

Essex 3,170 6,350 9,420

Rounded cumulative total of worker registration from EU accession states under the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)

Registrations under the WRS


NI Registrations in Essex Jan 2004 - Apr 2008 Top Ten European Nationalities

7,120

2,220

680 590 580 490 430 430 410 350

010002000

3000400050006000

70008000

Poland

Slovak

ia

Lithu

ania

Franc

e

Germ

any

Rep o

f Ire

land

Czech

Rep

Hunga

ryIta

ly

Spain

National Insurance Number

(NINo) Registrations


1.33%0.93%

0.58%

0.69%0.47%0.24%0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

March 2004* March 2006** June 2008**

UK

Essex

Trend – Percentage of

Population

Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) Numbers as Percentage of Population

2004 to 2008


Percentage of foreign-born persons

24% 23%

19%

13%11% 11% 11% 10%

8% 7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Austra

lia

Switzer

land

Canada

USA

Ger

man

y

Nether

land

s

Irelan

dUK

Franc

e

Denm

ark

Foreign-born Percentage of

Population in Selected Countries

30-60%BME*

in half of London

Boroughs

*Black or Minority Ethnic Groups

BME 15%


Trend - Population Growth

EU Population Projections 2008-2035 Selected Countries

5.1

11.515.4 17.1

37.2

-0.6-1.5-3.1-3.7-5.2-7.2-8.4-10.9-13.2-14.5

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Bul

garia

Latv

iaLi

thua

nia

Rom

ania

Est

onia

Pol

and

Ger

man

yS

lova

kia

Slo

veni

aC

zech

Rep

ublic

EU

27

Fran

ceU

nite

d Ki

ngdo

mS

pain

Irela

nd

Most populous nation in EU by 2060: UK with 77million


Trend - WRS Registrations

WRS Registrations 2006-08 Quarters

769

600612

396

610 575

790

605540 565

Averageper

quarter May 2004

- Mar2006

Apr06-Jun06

Jul06-Sep06

Oct06-Dec06

Jan 07-Mar07

Apr07-June07

Jul07-Sept07

Oct07-Dec07

Jan08-Mar08

Apr08-June08

UK

Essex

?


Myth Busting?

• Numbers of Eastern EU

migrants are extremely

high

• They will stay forever and

cause even more rapid

population growth

• Eastern European migrants

are only here to claim

benefits

YES Multiple times higher than Govt.

expected

NO Significantly lower percentage

of UK population than migrants

from outside EU

NO ‘Return migration’ is significant

for EU migrants in general but

we do not know how many are

going back how fast

NO Employment rate UK-born 75%;

Employment rate A8-born over

80%; share of A8-born claiming

state benefits 2.4% (after

12months employment)


Myth Busting?

–Social cohesion is

threatened / UK-born

population is increasingly

concerned

–Councils have increased

expenses because of

Eastern European

migrants

YES Share of people rising who consider

immigration and race relations most

important issue in UK

NO Not as such, usually, unless high

number receives Council Tax

benefits or additional services are

deployed, e.g. translation, liaison officers

etc

YES Because inaccurate statistics and

projections for migration mean

insufficient central government grants

including specific grants for schools.


Issues – Data & Statistics

-General recognition that migration statistics are inadequate

- Last census (2001) under-estimated UK population by nearly

1 million; poor counts of migrants and students

- No data on short-term migrants

- Emigration of UK-born population only estimated

- A8 migration gauged through: Worker Registration Scheme

(WRS), National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations,

Labour Force Surveys, Passenger Surveys etc;

Problems: WRS does not cover self-employed;

WRS/BME, NINo overlap and do not produce coherent stats;

neither WRS nor NINo require de-registration


• Labour market: Employment rate UK (total) rising (slightly);

50-80% of new jobs created over last 10 years taken up by

immigrants. Unemployment rate UK relatively low over last 10

years (July 2008 5.5%) but rising.

• Youth unemployment (18-24) already high (about 11.5%

since August 2005).

• No significant correlation found between immigration,

(un)employment levels or unfilled vacancies.

• No strong correlation found between wages and immigration.

Income from self-employed labour not researched much.

• GDP: app. 3% attributable to new migrants

Issues – Economic Impact


• ...will all this change during economic downturn or

recession?

• Or will emerging economies (e.g. Poland) continue

growing while established Western markets go into

recession?

• Therefore, will A8 migrants return to their countries of

origin in droves?

Issues – Economic Impact


Issues – Social Cohesion

• No issue in Essex; bigger impact on rural areas in parts of

Norfolk and Lincolnshire and large metropolitan areas

• Perceived or real tensions arising from competition over

(public) resources (e.g. childcare, social housing, public

transport)

• Community Safety around issues such as overcrowded

housing, drink driving

• Little knowledge about rights & responsibilities, e.g. traffic

code, tenants’ rights

• Low English language skills on arrival

• Tension evoked or increased by emotive media coverage


Issues – Impact on local services

• Inadequate statistics, inadequate estimates/projections =

inadequate population-based grants from central government

• Central government benefits from increased income tax and

VAT but does not hand down share to local government

• Migration contributes significantly to unwanted population

growth in the South of England

• Demand for (affordable) housing (and central government

housing plans for South/East England) already too high,

contradicting councils’ conservation/green belt policies

• Social housing – other influences, e.g. increasing single

households and ageing population have more significant

impact than migration


Issues – Impact on local services

• Street homeless in London – 18% from Eastern Europe but

only 0.7% of statutorily homeless (eligible for social housing)

• Extra demand through migration for schooling and special

support for pupils whose first language is not English hard to

predict and costly

Local government can play a role in restoring or sustaining

community cohesion by:

• Myth busting to reverse an apparent trend in tabloid media

• Providing (free) access to English language training

• Pro-actively providing information on rights & responsibilities (welcome packs, tenancy rights, traffic code etc)

• ...and many other measures


Thank You

For Listening

Questions & Discussion

Lord Hanningfield

Leader, Essex County Council

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Migration from European Accession States to the UK and Essex Lord Hanningfield Leader, Essex County Council.

Documents

abc lord hanningfield

essex lord hanningfield

wrs slide

nutshell slide

essex county council

chelmsford slide

eu accession states

eu countries