A3M AG Comparison of different ways for Tsunami Alert Dissemination The advantage of Tsunami Alert by ICT Dr. Andreas Koch A3M – Tsunami Warning Institute.

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Comparison of different ways for Tsunami Alert Dissemination

The advantage of Tsunami Alert by ICT

Dr. Andreas KochA3M – Tsunami Warning Institute

Tuebingen, Germany

EURICE 2007Bangkok, 29-31 January 2007

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Introducing A3M Tsunami Warning Institute

• The Tsunami Warning Institute was founded by Prof. Eduard Heindl andProf. Wolfram Reiners in 2005

• Based on seismic datas, we look for any earthquake

• If the quake is located in the ocean, we calculate the risk for a tsunami

• In the case of a tsunami-critical earthquake, we inform our users

• The whole process is fully automated

Problem: What is the best way for alert dissemination ?

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Warning necessary ?

Regular reminders about a forgotten riskPre-warning in connection with other events signalises that immediate escape is necessarye.g. with- slight increase in sea level- recession of the sea- spray at the horizon

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Technology AND Psychology

If a tsunami struck again next year, the technology would be ready to notice, but not all the people might be informed about the danger.

"I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will workvery well," said Professor Bill McGuire, of the Benfield Hazard ResearchCentre, London, UK.

"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade fromthe warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the barowners."

BBC News - 25 March 2005 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4373333.stm

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Tsunami Warning is difficult

Short time between seismic event and tsunami wave arriving the coast

Global scale of risc, over 200.000 km coastline

Very different quality of infrastructure

Very infrequent events in one region

People forget what a tsunami is

Many different languages at one beach, increasing with tourists

False alert may decay awareness

Meaningful alarm message neccessary

Dealarm required

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Speed

Why can you warn of tsunamis, but not of earth quakes?

Speed comparison

Light: 300.000 km/s

Earthquake waves: 13.000 km/h

Tsunami waves: 800 km/h

Within ten minutes travels

- Light 5000x around the earth

- An earthquake 2200 km far

- A tsunami 130 km far

Enough time to warn the people

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Well known Attempts

Sirene

Loudspeaker

Board

Sign

Radio

RDS over Radio

Television

Signal rockets

Police cars + speaker

Misc...

If you hear the siren go off anytime except 2:00 PM on Wednesday

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Global Scale

A tsunami could arrive just anywhere in the world. Some regions may have more frequent events, only a few are quite save.

Alarm systems should be available in any endangered area!

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Infrastructure

Different countries have different quality of infrastructure

Unused infrastructure decays !

Example: Ununsed fire extinguisher

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Language

Beach areas are quite often populated with tourists

Rare radio and sign messages are often not understood !

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Meaningful Message in GermanySirenenprobe: 15 Sekunden.

Erfolgt jeden Samstag.

Feuerwehr-Einsatz: 3 x 12 Sekunden. Einsatz der Feuerwehr, bei Brand oder technischen Einsätzen!

Kann im Bedarfsfalle wiederholt werden.

Warnung: 3 Minuten gleichbleibender Dauerton.Achtung, bedeutet herannahende Gefahr! 

Radio oder Fernseher einschalten, Verhaltensmaßnahmen beachten.

Alarm: 1 Minute regelmäßiger auf- und abschwellender Heulton!Bedeutet akute Gefahr! 

Schützende Räumlichkeiten aufsuchen, Radio oder Fernsehen einschalten

und Verhaltensmaßnahmen befolgen.

Alarm: Unterbrochener, regelmäßig auf- und absteigender Ton!Strahlenalarm Kernkraftwerk!

Keller/Schutzraum aufsuchen und Verhaltensmaßnahmen befolgen.

Alarm: Ein tiefer unterbrochener Ton!Wasseralarm in besonderen Gebieten z.B. Nahzonen von Talsperren!Radio oder Fernseher einschalten, Verhaltensmaßnahmen beachten

und gegebenenfalls gefährdetes Gebiet unmittelbar verlassen.

Entwarnung: 1 Minute gleichbleibender Dauerton.Bedeutet das Ende der Gefahr! 

Weitere Hinweise über Radio und Fernsehen beachten.

Alarm: Ein tiefer unterbrochener Ton!Wasseralarm in besonderen Gebieten z.B. Nahzonen von Talsperren!Radio oder Fernseher einschalten, Verhaltensmaßnahmen beachten

und gegebenenfalls gefährdetes Gebiet unmittelbar verlassen.

Did you know: a low, broken sound is the alert for a flood

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The Matrix

Time Global Language Attention De-Alarm

Siren

Loudspeaker

Sign

Radio, TV

Signal rockets

Police car

ICT - SMS/MMS

Longterm reliable

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Growth of Mobile User

Today: 2,400,000,000 subscribers Q2-2006

2010: Half of the world population„Fastest growing segment of

telecommunications“ Ronald Beaubruna and Samuel Pierre, Telematics and

Informatics, Volume 18, Issues 2-3

GSM Association's Wireless Intelligence service

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Growth in all Countries

The industrialized world is saturated with mobile phones

The growth happens in the new markets

Source: Wireless Intelligence

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The Solution

The Tsunami Alarm Systemsends tsunami informationtimeously to your mobile phone, anywhere and for everybody.

Because of the early warning stage,the users can easily move to higher ground.

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Easy to use

Tsunami Alarm System will be activated by registering a mobile phone number

• at the web site www.tsunami-alarm-system.com

• using a voucher card

After registration it is immediately ready for action

Nothing has to be downloaded or installed

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Reason for Mobile Phone use

The mobile phone is always on

SMS message can be meaningful

Low bandwidth demand

Parents buy mobile phones for children safety

Mobile phones evolve to safety equipment

Tsunami alarm system is a first step © Ganesh Technologies 2005

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Architecture of the System

Separation of the tsunami web site from the alarm system

Security from disturbances and hacker attacks

Web sitewww.tsunami-as.com

Alarm logicMobile systemSMS Logic

Seismic Seismic ...

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Well known issues with SMS warning

Content of the message

Language of the message

Global roaming

Bulk messages

Mobile in quiet mode

Location based service

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Research and Solution: Content and Language

English text is tested with different users

Alert level is clearly communicated

Dewarning comes automatically

Individual language versionscoming up next

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Research and Solution: Global Roaming

User give feedback to the pasttsunami warning SMS while traveling around

Multiple SMS gateway servers to ensure fail over

Bulk message using special protocol slots, also resulting insaving time and money

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Research and Solution: Mobile in quiet mode

Java within mobile can overrun quiet mode

SMS with different sound than a call

MMS alarm message with spoken info

Location based service possible with Java applet

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Actual Problems we are fighting with

• Some of our subscribers can´t be reached via SMS, because of- customer of the „wrong“ TelCo- using UMTS or US mobile- we don´t know...

• A receipt, our user has got the SMS, would be nice to have

• The cost for the SMS dissemination is still too high, 5 to 10 cent

• The model, we are calculation with, is too coarse – resulting in false alert

• Expand to Tornado - Earthquake - ..... Warning Institute

• The acceptance of our system is still not high enough, we are putting a lot of private money into it – and can´t lower the price yet

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Thank you for your interest!

Contact: [email protected]

We want to thank the European Union for the financial helpto take part in the Eurice meeting 2007