Virginia HOME SALES REPORT Q1 2017 Published by the Virginia REALTORS ® , the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
VirginiaHOME SALESREPORTQ1 2017
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 1
The Virginia REALTORS® association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide
our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data
comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS®. All data may be used
with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS®.
The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent
cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not
necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in
Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more
counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®
(NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond
Eastern Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland
Hampton Roads Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg
Northern Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park
Southside Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville
Southwest Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton
Valley Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester
West Central Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 2
First Quarter Summary
The first quarter of 2017 indicates a year of continued growth in Virginia’s residential real
estate market. With particularly strong sales in March and prices rising consistently on high
buyer motivation, performance in the first quarter of 2017 rose notably from the same period
in 2016.
Quarterly transactions rose by 7.8 percent year‐over‐year (from 21,213 to 22,859). Likewise,
first quarter volume jumped by 12.2 percent year‐over‐year, from $6.492 billion in 2016 to
$7.287 billion in 2017. The significant increase in volume was the result of notable
outperformance in pace, or number of sales, multiplied by rising prices. Statewide, median
price for the first quarter rose by 4 percent from 2016 to 2017, from $249,900 to $260,000.
Annualized sales, the sum of all sales for the preceding twelve months, offered a clear
illustration of market strength, rising for the tenth consecutive quarter. The average
quarterly increase in annualized sales over that time has been 1.9 percent, suggesting that if
the trend continues, the annualized figure at the end of 2017’s second quarter could exceed
121,000 sales.
Year‐over‐year, first quarter home sales increased in all price bands except the lowest ($0 to
$100,000), where limited inventory typically restricts market activity. The increases were
significant in every category except the $100,000 t0 $200,000 range. Luxury sales, above
$750,000, increased by the greatest percentages, but because that range represents
relatively few sales, the greatest indicator of overall market performance is in middle price
bands.
Year‐over‐year, sales and median price increased in every region of the state in the first
quarter. The Eastern and Southwest regions exhibited particular gains over their prior year
performance.
Though 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates remain at enticing lows, they each
jumped notably from the two preceding quarters. Responding to the Federal Reserve Bank’s
decision to raise the key rate in March, in quick succession to its December hike, average
rates for 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates in the first quarter rose to 4.17
percent and 3.39 percent, respectively. The anticipation of continuing rate increases
contributes to buyer motivation and should spur activity, particularly as greater inventory
comes available for buyers to absorb while rates remain relatively low.
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 5,427 5,705 7,150 8,507 9,701 10,633 10,176 9,486 8,360 8,448 6,662 8,306
2015 5,807 6,087 8,521 9,171 10,370 12,684 11,824 10,205 9,567 8,872 7,020 8,745
2016 5,946 6,577 8,690 10,209 11,786 13,300 11,536 11,779 10,143 9,017 8,607 9,089
2017 6,464 6,655 9,740
Each month of the first quarter in 2017 had higher sales than in the corresponding months of the
previous year. In particular, March sales (9,740) were markedly higher than their prior year
benchmark, increasing 12.1 percent from March 2016 (8,690). Pace typically rises each month
following January, leading into peak summertime sales. The dramatic month‐to‐month jump at the
end of the 2017 first quarter reflects loosened inventory in March following prolonged constraints.
For the previous three years, the February to March increase averaged 32.5 percent; for 2017, it was
46.4 percent.
6,464 6,655
9,740
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales
Month‐to‐Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 4
Sales in the first quarter of 2017 grew by 7.8 percent year‐over‐year, from a total of 21,213 in 2016 Q1
to 22,859. Relative to the first quarter of 2015, sales for the first quarter of 2017 rose 12 percent
(from 20,415 transactions). Further indicated through the annualized sales trend (page 5), year‐
over‐year improvements in quarterly performance indicate sustained market expansion.
Note: the horizontal bar in the graph indicates the variance in first quarter sales from 2014 through
2017, beginning with 18,282 sales in 2014 and rising eventually to 22,859 sales in 2017, with
graduated increases for each year in between. 2017 first quarter sales were 25 percent higher than
their 2014 benchmark.
18,282
28,841 28,022
23,416
20,415
32,225 31,596
24,637
21,213
35,29533,458
26,713
22,859
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
Number of Single Fam
ily, Townhome, C
ondo Sales
Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
7.8 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 5
Each data point on the graph above represents twelve months of home sales data ending in the
quarter shown. For example, the 2017 Q1 figure (118,325 sales) includes home sales from April 2016
through March 2017, and the 2016 Q4 figure (116,679 sales) includes home sales from January 2016
through December 2016. This rolling sum of home sales reduces seasonal effect, providing a clearer
indicator of long‐term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The trend of continued improvement in
this measure illustrates how Virginia’s residential real estate market has grown consistently over
the long‐term. Annualized sales ending in the first quarter of 2017 grew 1.4 percent from the
previous quarter. Year‐over‐year, the measure grew 7.9 percent.
Indicating that growth has been sustained regardless of seasonal market fluctuations, annualized
sales have grown for ten consecutive quarters. The average growth per quarter over that time
period has been 1.9 percent. This suggests that, if remaining on trend, the annualized sales figure
ending in the second quarter of 2017 may approach 121,000 sales.
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1N
umber of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales
Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
7.9 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 6
Region 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Central 4,343 4,905 12.9%
Eastern 386 428 10.9%
Hampton Roads 5,169 5,320 2.9%
Northern 7,762 8,313 7.1%
Southside 435 558 28.3%
Southwest 316 369 16.8%
Valley 1,078 1,102 2.2%
West Central 1,711 1,851 8.2%
Other 13 13 0%
ALL of Virginia 21,213 22,859 7.8%
The chart above compares 2016 first quarter sales to 2017 first quarter sales, by region. All regions
experienced notable growth from the same period last year, for a statewide aggregate jump of 7.8
percent. The greatest year‐over‐year percentage increases occurred in the Southside and
Southwest regions. Performance metrics are relative to the absolute number of sales, so less dense
regions with increasing sales may show a relatively higher growth percentage. Two of the densest
regions – Northern and Central – gained notably as well.
Regional Changes in Sales 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4 Units
+16.8 %
+12.9 %
+8.2 %
+7.1 %
+28.3 %+2.9 %
+10.9 %+2.2 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 7
In comparison to the first quarter of 2016, aggregate median price rose by 4 percent for the first
quarter of 2017. Relative to the first quarter of 2015, median price rose by 5.1 percent. Price rises
have been spurred by increased buyer confidence, with demand consistently exceeding supply.
Reflecting typical seasonal trends, median price fell relative to the fourth quarter of 2017 by 1.9
percent, from $265,000 to $260,000. A decline in price from the fourth to first quarters is expected
as activity is usually slowest in January and February each year.
249,000
235,000 267,000
260,000
251,000
247,500 274,950
265,000
255,000
249,900 279,000
272,000
265,000
260,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
Med
ian Sales Price
Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
4.0 %
5.1 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 8
Region 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Central $212,000 $228,950 8.0%
Eastern $171,150 $197,450 15.4%
Hampton Roads $210,000 $220,000 4.8%
Northern $390,000 $399,900 2.5%
Southside $89,000 $90,000 1.1%
Southwest $100,250 $115,000 14.7%
Valley $179,900 $189,000 5.1%
West Central $154,800 $162,000 4.7%
Other $110,000 $74,000 ‐32.7%
ALL of Virginia $249,900 $260,000 4.0%
Median sales price increased year‐over‐year in every region, with particularly strong performance in
the Eastern and Southwest regions. Because ‘Other’ sales represent so few transactions, there is
greater variance in price movement for each reporting period.
Regional Changes in Median Sales Price 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4
+1.1 %
+4.7 %
+14.7
+8.0 %
+5.1 %
2.5%
+4.8 %
+15.4
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 9
This graph represents the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter
for the last three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2017 rose by 12.2
percent year‐0ver‐year, from $6.492 billion to $7.287 billion. Volume is amplified year‐over‐year by
increases in both price and the number of transactions. Because the first quarter of 2017 saw a
significant increase in pace alongside steadily rising median price, volume rose significantly on the
strength of both contributing factors.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
12.2 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 10
Year‐0ver‐year home sales increased in every price category except the lowest ($0 to $100K), where
restricted inventory limits the number of sales possible. Growth was particularly strong in the
ranges from $200k to $400k.
2,256
5,560
5,770
3,669
2,187
2,351
662
404
2,449
5,478
5,171
3,175
1,981
2,110
522
327
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
0 ‐ $100K
$100K ‐ $200K
$200K ‐ $300K
$300K ‐ $400K
$400K ‐ $500K
$500K ‐ $750K
$750 K ‐ $1M
$1 M+
Price Ran
ge
Price Distribution of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2016‐Q1 2017‐Q1
9.9%
24.3%
25.2%
16.1%
9.6%
10.3%
2.9% 1.8%
Market Share for Price Bands
0 ‐ $100K
$100K ‐ $200K
$200K ‐ $300K
$300K ‐ $400K
$400K ‐ $500K
$500K ‐ $750K
$750 K ‐ $1M
$1 M+
‐7.9 %
11.6 %
15.6 %
10.4 %
11.4%
26.8 %
23.5 %
Because sales in ranges
below $750,000 represent
the vast majority of
transactions in Virginia, they
are the clearest indicator of
market performance. The
highest number of
transactions by price band in
2017 Q1 happened in the
$200k to $300k range.
1.5 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 11
The average number of days on the market in the first quarter of 2017 decreased from the same
quarter last year by 10.8 percent. Declining days on the market reflect sustained demand and
reaction to the realization of rate increases, as buyers transact with increasing urgency. Typical of
industry seasonality, average time on the market lengthened from the fourth quarter to the first,
reflecting the slower activity in January and February.
73
84
6873
81
89
68 68
7883
63 61
6974
0
30
60
90
120
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
Average Days on the Market
Average Days on the MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
‐10.8 %
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 12
The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales in the first quarter have tracked the changes in the
pace of sales in the United States as a whole. National existing homes sales figures have not yet
been released for March 2017.
Virginia median price changes were similar to the changes in the median of existing‐home sales
prices nationally for the first quarter of 2017. Both Virginia and the United States as a whole showed
year‐0ver‐year increases in median price. National median price has not yet been released for March
2017.
*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as
reported by the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.
8,6909,740
421,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
$221,500
$251,930$264,975
$80,000
$130,000
$180,000
$230,000
$280,000
$330,000
Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 May‐16 Jun‐16 Jul‐16 Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17
Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceUNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*)
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 13
The Virginia unemployment rate fell in the first quarter to seasonally‐adjusted 3.9 percent. Virginia
unemployment continues to track below the national average (4.7 percent). Low unemployment is
correlated with bolstered consumer confidence. At the national level, a strong first quarter jobs
report contributed to the Federal Reserve Bank’s enactment of an increase in the key rate.
5.3%5.1%
4.9% 4.8%
4.5%
4.2% 4.2% 4.1%
3.7%3.9%
4.1%3.9%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
2014‐Q2 2014‐Q3 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q3 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q3 2016‐Q4 2017‐Q1
Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 14
Though still offering enticing financing opportunity, 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest
rates increased notably in the first quarter of 2017. The Federal Reserve Bank announced a widely
anticipated rate hike in mid‐March, acting on strong labor data. The quarterly average of the 30‐
year fixed mortgage interest rate reached its highest point since the third quarter of 2014, and the
15‐year reached its highest point since the second quarter of 2014.
4.36%
4.23%4.14%
3.97%
3.72%3.83%
3.95%3.90%
3.74%
3.59%
3.45%
3.81%
4.17%
3.00%
3.40%
3.80%
4.20%
4.60%
2014‐Q1 2014‐Q3 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q3 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q3 2017‐Q1
Average 30‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
3.40%3.32%
3.27%3.18%
3.01%3.06%
3.15% 3.13%3.03%
2.85%2.75%
3.07%
3.39%
2.20%
2.40%
2.60%
2.80%
3.00%
3.20%
3.40%
3.60%
2014‐Q1 2014‐Q3 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q3 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q3 2017‐Q1
Average 15‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
2017 First Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded April 12, 2017 15
The Virginia REALTORS® association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia,
representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real
estate business. The Virginia REALTORS® association serves as the advocate for homeownership
and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property
owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate
professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict
code of ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:
Jenny Wortham
Virginia REALTORS®
804‐262‐3755
The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing
services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is
sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.