A word about Data & Statistics

A word about Data & Statistics

Question: Statistically speaking, which statement below is more likely to be correct?a) “42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.” - Steven

Wright

b) “97.3% of all statistics are made up.”________________________________________________________________________________

-"Five out of four people have trouble with “statistics”" - Steven Wright

- "Statistics means never having to say you're certain."- “A statistician can have the head in an oven and the feet in ice, and s/he will say that on the average s/he feels fine.” _______________________________________________

"Statistics are no substitute for judgment." -- Henry Clay

1

Kalamazoo CMHSAS - Coord. Agency - Service area

2

SA Treatment Data in the Kazoo CA area (2011)

Source: TEDS 20113

CA Area0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%FY-2011 - SA Tx Data - Kazoo CA area

Alcohol

Coc.

mj

Heroin

Oth Opioid

Meth

Stim/Oth

SA Treatment Data in the Kazoo CA area (2011)

BarryBranch

CalhounCass

KazooS. Jo

e VBCA Area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Alcohol

Coc.

mj

Heroin

Oth Opioid

Meth

Stim/Oth

Source: TEDS 20114

SA Prevention Priority #1: Reduce Under-age Drinking (UAD)

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI YRBS-US0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

22.5%

25.6%

21.8%19.9%

21.4%

26.3%

17.3%

30.5%

38.7%

Drank alcohol in the past 30 days

High School

Middle School

Source: 2012 MiPHY 5

SA Prevention Priority #1: Reduce Under-age Drinking (UAD)

Source: 2012 MiPHY

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI YRBS-US(Binge Drinking) Had five or more drinks of alcohol in a row, that is, within a couple of

hours, in the past 30 days

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

13.5%

16.3%

14.7%

13.0% 12.9%

17.4%

10.6%

17.8%

21.9%Binge drinking in the last 30 days

High School

Middle School

6

Some “Contributing Factors” to UAD:1) Access to alcohol Issues2) Perception of Risk3) Perception of Wrongness

Source: 2012 MiPHY (High School)

7

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joseph V. Buren

2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010

. . . easy or very easy to get alcohol

61.7%

64.7%

69.9%

68.8%

65.1%

64.3%

66.8%   65.5

%68.3%

67.7%

68.3%

64.4%  

. . . regular alcohol use: moderate or

great risk

73.6%

67.5%

69.9%

69.0%

71.2%

70.5%

76.0%   76.2

%74.4%

74.5%

70.7%

74.0%  

. . . alcohol use by peers: wrong or

very wrong

66.9%

58.9%

59.1%

57.2%

63.2%

63.0%

68.7%   65.2

%62.8%

59.2%

59.8%

64.5%  

Under Age Drinking: Access Issues

Source: 2012 MiPHY (High School)

8

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo SJ VB0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Where/ From whom did you get alcohol?

Alcohol Retailer (store, bar)

Acquaintance

Family Member

Other way

Under Age Drinking:The role that parents & friends play in it! Source: 2012 M iPHY (High

School)

9

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joseph V. Buren

At home 33% 25% 23.8% 31.3% 28.2% 32.1% 37.4%

At another person’s house . . . (friend, friend of the friend)

62.4 70.3% 71.4% 65.5% 64.5% 58% 53.9%

Where did you drink alcohol in the past 30 days?

Under Age Drinking: Statistics sometimes become stories of human

tragedies!

10

Research: “People who report starting to drink before

the age of 15 are four times (4X) more likely to also report meeting criteria for alcohol dependence at some point in life.” (National Institute on Alcohol Abuse/Alcoholism – NIAAA)

Alcohol-related traffic Accidents (ARTCs): Statistics often become stories of human

tragedies!

11

Year: 2011 All Crashes#

Fatalities in all Crashes

  ARTCCrashes

# Fatalities in

ARTCs

Barry 1,680 10   71 5

Branch 1,765 4   50 1

Calhoun 4,739 13   187 3

Cass 1,255 7   58 1

Kazoo 7,800 26   304 10

St. Joe 1,686 7   58 3

V. Buren 2,165 10   94 3

ARTCs are much more likely to result in fatalities than other types of vehicle accidents:

Source: MI-OHSP

ARTC stats & Community Impact-IYear: 2011 All Crashes # Fatalities in

all Crashes   HBD Crashes # Fatalities in HBD Crashes

Barry 1,680 10   71 5Branch 1,765 4   50 1

Calhoun 4,739 13   187 3Cass 1,255 7   58 1Kzoo 7,800 26   304 10

St. Joe 1,686 7   58 3V. Buren 2,165 10   94 3

 # ARTC Crashes 2007 2008* 2009 2010 2011Barry 99 81 60 71 71

Branch 57 56 48 41 50Calhoun 163 175 167 178 187

Cass 81 89 61 54 58Kzoo 372 347 297 307 304

St. Joe 102 70 78 73 58V. Buren 134 123 126 102 94

CA Region 1008 941 837 826 822 12

Source (both tables): MI-OHSP

ARTC stats & Community Impact-II

Year: 2011 Cost of Fatalities Cost of Injuries

Property Destruction

Estimated Total Costs

Barry $ 7,050,000 $ 914,300 $ 293,700 $ 8,258,000

Branch $ 1,410,000 $ 669,000 $ 222,500 $ 2,301,500

Calhoun $ 4,230,000 $ 2,252,300 $ 1,023,500 $ 7,505,800

Cass $ 1,410,000 $ 579,800 $ 329,300 $ 2,319,100

Kzoo $ 14,100,000 $ 3,590,300 $ 1,610,900 $ 19,301,200

St. Joe $ 4,230,000 $ 602,100 $ 284,800 $ 5,116,900

V. Buren $ 4,230,000 $ 1,115,000 $ 498,400 $ 5,843,400

CA Region $ 36,660,000 $ 9,722,800 $ 4,263,100 $ 50,645,900

13Source: MI-OHSP, and National Safety Council (NSC)

Prevention Priority #1: UAD & Other Alcohol-Related Consequences

(Community Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets (characteristics,

institutions and Resources) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce UAD & other Alcohol Consequences

#2) Actions and ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent/reduce UAD & other destructive Consequences of Alcohol in this County.

14

Another Priority area: Rx Drug AbuseBack to the SA Treatment Data Graph

(Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)

BarryBranch

CalhounCass

KazooS. Jo

e VBCA Area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Alcohol

Coc.

mj

Heroin

Oth Opioid

Meth

Stim/Oth

Source: TEDS 201115

Rx Drug abuse: DEA Controlled Substance

Schedule ChartSCHEDULE I: Drug has no currently accepted medical use in Treatment in the US.

SCHEDULE II : Drug has a high potential for abuse. Drug has accepted medical use (with severe restrictions). Drug may lead to severe physical dependence or addiction.

Ex: Amphetamine and methylphenidate, fentanyl, oxycodone, hydromorphone, morphine, and secobarbital

 SCHEDULE III :Drug has a high potential for abuse.Drug has accepted medical use (with restrictions).Drug may lead to moderate to high physical dependence or addiction.Ex: Buprenorphine, anabolic steroids and combination drugs like

hydrocodone/acetaminophen, and codeine/acetaminophen

 SCHEDULE IV: Drug has lower potential for abuse /addiction. (Ex: Benzodiazepines) SCHEDULE V: Drug has lower potential for abuse/addiction (Ex: Cough syrups

w/Codeine)16

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse

RX Drug Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI

Pain Kill. 8.1% 9.6% 7.4% 6.1% 7.8% 7.4% 5.2% 12.6%

Stimul/ADHD 5.9% 3.2% 5.1% 3.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.2% 8.2%

Barbit. 2.0% 2.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.0% 2.4% 0.6% 3.6%

Steroids 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8%

Pain Kill. 11.1% 13.6% 14.0%   11.7% 16.4% 13.3%  

Stimul/ADHD 6.1% 6.8% 7.1%   6.6% 9.1% 9.4%

Steroids 7.6% 5.5% 5.6%   6.3% 9.0% 10.3%

17

Use of Rx Drugs w/o Medical Prescription in the last 30 days (High school)

Use of Rx Drugs w/o Medical Prescription: Life-time use (Middle School)

Source: 2012 MiPHY

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse

18Source: 2012 MiPHY

Pain Kill. Stimul/ADHD

Barbit. Steroids Pain Kill. Stimul/ADHD

Steroids0%

4%

8%

12%

16% Rx drug use w/o a prescription

Barry

Branch

Calhoun

Cass

Kazoo

S. Joe

VB

High School

Middle School

Rx Drug abuse: Contributing Factors

19Source: NIDA (Study on Rx Abuse: Dec/2011)

What is Driving high prevalence of non-medical use of Rx drugs?

1. Misperception of safety: They are prescribed by a doctor! . . . They are made in pharmaceutical labs!

2. Increased availability of Rx drugs in the household (See graph)*

3. Lack of community resources for disposal of unused/expired meds

4. Patterns of prescription of addictive meds by medical professionals are not consistent with guidelines for responsible/ safe prescribing (ONDCP/White House: 2011 “Epidemic/Crisis Doc.)

Rx Drug abuse: Household Availability of Rx Drug

20

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

3,851,1882,913,727

11,313,153

2,434,791

17,952,424

4,197,820

7,539,894

Units (Pills)

Average Per household: 190 Units (CA Area); 203 Units (Michigan)

MAPS: Volume of Scheduled II, III RX drugs in the CA Area

From 1991 to 2010, prescriptions for stimulants increased from 5 to 45 million; for opioid painkillers from 75.5 to 209.5 million.

Over 50% (in some cases 70% ) of "nonmedical users" of pain relievers, tranquil. stimulants, and sedatives obtained RX drugs from a friend or relative, for free.”

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse (Community

Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets

(characteristics and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce non-medical use of Rx Drugs.

#2) Actions and Ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent, mitigate and reduce non-medical use of Rx Drugs in this County.

21

Another Priority Area: Reduce Marijuana use

Back to the SA Treatment Data Graph (Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)

BarryBranch

CalhounCass

KazooS. Jo

e VBCA Area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Alcohol

Coc.

mj

Heroin

Oth Opioid

Meth

Stim/Oth

Source: TEDS 201122

Prevention Priority Area:Reduce Marijuana use

Source: MIPHY 201223

B B C K S. VB Y Y0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2012

2010

Marijuana use in the past 30 days (High School)

Marijuana Use: Contributing Factors amongst

youth

24Source: 2012 MIPHY

Risk0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Perception or Risk: marijuana X tobacco

Barr

y Branch

Cass

Kzoo

Black fill: mj;Gray fill: Tobacco

Calhoun

SJ VB

Marijuana Use: Other Contributing Factors

25

1. (Social Access): HS/School-aged youth in this county report that getting marijuana is "sort of easy or very easy": HS (57.2%); MS (17.8%); Trend (2010): HS (53.6%); MS (16.7%).

2. Decreasing perception of risk and of the harmful consequences of marijuana use by the public in general linked to the Michigan Medical Marihuana law (more social acceptance of non-medical use of mj);

3. Increased illegal availability of marijuana as residual consequence of the MMML.

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Marijuana Use

(Community Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets (characteristics

and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce use of Marijuana and its consequences.

#2) Actions and ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent/reduce illegal use of Marijuana in this County.

26

Another Priority Area: Reduce Meth UseBack to the SA Treatment Data Graph

(Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)

BarryBranch

CalhounCass

KazooS. Jo

e VBCA Area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Alcohol

Coc.

mj

Heroin

Oth Opioid

Meth

Stim/Oth

Source: TEDS 201127

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Meth Use

28

2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo St. Joe V. Buren CA Area

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Data on Meth & Other Drug use (past 30 days) - High School

Meth. Inhal. Club H/C/Inj.Source: 2012 MiPHY

Meth Use: Potential Contributing Factor

(Perception of risk)

29Source: 2012 MiPHY

Risk: Moderate to great Risk0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Perception or Risk: Meth X Tobacco (High School)

Barry

Branch

Calhoun

Cass

Kzoo

Blue fill: Meth;Gray fill: Tobacco

SJ VB

Meth Use: Other Considerations, Determining

Contributing & Complicating Factors

30

1. Low perception of the highly addictive nature of meth;

2. Low perception of wrongness of meth use;

3. Meth: Easy manufacturing process and access to ingredients;

4. Lack of knowledge of the availability of resources for meth recovery http://www.drugabuse.gov/Testimony/6-28-06Testimony.html

5. Prevailing public perception that meth recovery is unlikely to occur

Ah! One more interesting piece of info: Illegal Drugs obtained in school

31

Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB CA AreaYRBS_MI0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Offered/Sold/Given illegal drug on School Property (Past 12 months)

High SCh

Middle Sch

Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Meth Use (Community Strengths)

Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets

(characteristics and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce meth use.

#2) Ideas and actions that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent, reduce use of meth in this County. 32