METALS WEEKLY A Weekly Report on Metals OUTLOOK Week ahead might remain tepid in terms of trading activity as London Metal Exchange would remain closed on 25 th and 29 th of April owing to Easter Monday and Special Bank Holiday respectively. However in terms of economic data there are many crucial data releases like the FOMC rate decision and GDP numbers which would be keenly watched. US economy is expected to have grown at 1.9 percent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2011 as personal consumption growth takes backseat. However consumer confidence in the current month is expected to have got a boost given the improving economic conditions. Amid all this, FOMC is expected to maintain interest rate unchanged at 0.25 percent, but other indications in the form of bond buying program and timeline for exit, if any, would be keenly watched. UK’s economy is also expected to have grown by half percent after witnessing contraction in the prior quarter. Euro-zone CPI is expected to move higher and thereby would raise expectation of further rate hike by ECB. This along with positive GDP numbers from UK might keep the dollar under pressure. Overall, given the largely positive economic data, base metal prices might remain higher. However within the pack, gains of metals like lead and zinc might remain limited as there cancelled warrant ratio continues to remain lower and thereby stocks might continue to witness net additions. But as said earlier trading activity might remain tepid. TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS* Commodity Series S3 S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 R3 Recommendations LME Aluminium Fwd 2533 2580 2663 2745 2792 2839 2922 Buy at 2700-2720 TP 2825 SL 2630. MCX Aluminium Apr-11 114.6 116.2 118.8 121.5 123.0 124.6 127.2 Buy at 120-121 TP 126 SL 117 LME Copper Fwd 8868 9038 9371 9705 9874 10044 10377 Buy at 9500-550 TP 9950 SL 9200. MCX Copper Apr-11 397.3 404.4 417.4 430.4 437.4 444.5 457.5 Buy at 425-427 TP 436/443 SL 418 LME Lead Fwd 2351 2436 2518 2601 2685 2770 2852 Trading range 2480-2680 MCX Lead Apr-11 107.8 111.3 114.0 116.8 120.2 123.7 126.4 Trading range 124-110 LME Nickel Fwd 24165 24713 25806 26900 27447 27995 29088 Buy at 26100-200 TP 28000 SL 25200 MCX Nickel Apr-11 1083.4 1106.4 1150.6 1194.9 1217.8 1240.8 1285.0 Buy at 1180-90 TP 1225/45 SL 1150 LME Zinc Fwd 2200 2251 2305 2360 2410 2461 2515 Trading range 2450-2250 MCX Zinc Apr-11 98.9 100.8 102.7 104.6 106.4 108.3 110.2 Trading range 108-100 Steel NCDEX May-11 27747 27973 28287 28600 28827 29053 29367 Sideways MCX Iron Ore Apr-11 6850 6889 6941 6994 7032 7071 7123 Trading range 7300-6700 ICEX Iron Ore Apr-11 7282 7467 7569 7671 7856 8041 8143 Trading range 7500-7900 *NOTE: The calls shown above are purely WEEKLY Recommendations Key Economic Events this Week Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior 25/04/2011 19:30 US New Home Sales MAR 280K 250K 27/04/2011 14:00 UK GDP (QoQ) 1Q A 0.50% -0.50% 27/04/2011 14:30 EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) FEB 1.50% 0.10% 27/04/2011 22:00 US FOMC Rate Decision 27-Apr 0.25% 0.25% 28/04/2011 18:00 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 1Q A 1.90% 3.10% 29/04/2011 19:25 US U. of Michigan Confidence APR F 70 69.6 For all the data releases; click here April 23, 2011
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A Weekly Report on Metals...14 17 22 25 2-r 7-r 10 r 15 r 18-r 23 r 28 r 31 r 5-r 8-13 r 18 21-Aluminium CONTANGO BACKWARDATION CALENDAR SPREAD ON MCX 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
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METALS WEEKLY A Weekly Report on Metals
OUTLOOK
Week ahead might remain tepid in terms of trading activity as London Metal Exchange would remain closed on 25th and
29th of April owing to Easter Monday and Special Bank Holiday respectively. However in terms of economic data there
are many crucial data releases like the FOMC rate decision and GDP numbers which would be keenly watched.
US economy is expected to have grown at 1.9 percent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2011 as personal consumption
growth takes backseat. However consumer confidence in the current month is expected to have got a boost given the
improving economic conditions. Amid all this, FOMC is expected to maintain interest rate unchanged at 0.25 percent, but
other indications in the form of bond buying program and timeline for exit, if any, would be keenly watched. UK’s
economy is also expected to have grown by half percent after witnessing contraction in the prior quarter. Euro-zone CPI
is expected to move higher and thereby would raise expectation of further rate hike by ECB. This along with positive
GDP numbers from UK might keep the dollar under pressure. Overall, given the largely positive economic data, base
metal prices might remain higher. However within the pack, gains of metals like lead and zinc might remain limited as
there cancelled warrant ratio continues to remain lower and thereby stocks might continue to witness net additions. But
as said earlier trading activity might remain tepid.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS*
Commodity Series S3 S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 R3 Recommendations
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