7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
1/49
MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2012
A TRANSATLANTIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE EUROPEAN
UNION AND THE UNITED STATES IN NORTH AFRICA
STRATEGIC TRANSITIONS, PERCEPTIONS, AND POLICY RESPONSESRoberto Aliboni
http://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.gmfus.org/7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
2/49
2012 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
GMF Paper Series
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German
Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-
tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,
by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-
cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to
Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in
Washington, DC, GMF has oces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has
smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.
About the Mediterranean Policy Program
Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North
Arica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;
exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-
ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic
cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.
About Istituto Affari Internazionali
Te Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI), ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the elds o oreign policy,political economics, and international security. A non-prot organization, the IAI aims to d isseminate knowledge through
research studies, conerences, and publications. o that end, it cooperates with other research institutes, universities, and
oundations in Italy and abroad and is a member o various international networks. More specically, the main research
sectors are European institutions and policies, Italian oreign policy, trends in the global economy and internationalization
processes in Italy, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, deense economy and policy, and transatlantic relations. Te IAI
puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator), an online webzine (AfarInternazionali), a series o
research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellItalia).
Cover photo: Te fags o unisia, Libya, and (in the background, right side) Egypt fy at a crowded demonstration in ahrir
Square on February 25, 2011. Joel Carillet
http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.gmfus.org/7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
3/49
A Transatlantic Perspectiveon the European Union and the United States
in North Africa
Strategic Transitions, Perceptions,and Policy Responses
Mediterranean Paper Series
december 2012
R A
S , M M E P, I A Iz (IAI), R
E S
I
T E-US A A C N A 3
US E P R A S 3
P O 9
P R 4
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
4/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa iii
Executive Summary
T , , w
N A k w M E NA T z w w
T w I k US E A S , z w ,, S -A S A
T , w I w , , I ( , E), I w, w, z, I wk,
I, k
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
5/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 1
Introduction
1
A w , N A
w - w , , I k
W k A, , Mk w K3 T P w w ( ),4 w G C C (GCC) Iq B w , S w, w 5 Y
w ;6 L w
P M, T M 3 C I W, Op-Med, J,
YH Z A A, A P R:A C?,Middle East Policy, V 9, N , S, 66-83; A D, A: C C AR?,Actuelles de lIFRI, J 9,
3 M Ow, M: C T W S?, CarnegieCommentary, J 3,
4 I C G, T E H N C:P E P P, ICG Middle EastReport, N , M 7,
5 I C G, S M C, ICGMiddle East Report, N 8, A ,
6 Y Gzk, Y Bw I, -Q, W,INSS Insight, N 35, J , ; I G, YW A A S?, M A (), P,R R C A W A, C-, I P A, SWP Research Paper, N6/, F , 7-3
w S , , 7 A J, H K wk , w , 8 I, W L , k w w9
I k k A S , , w N A F , - 9 / E ancien rgimes,w , -, w kA , I , I w
,
7 P S, S C S L, Carnegie Q&A,M , ; F L, T L-S , Bitterlemons-international, V , N 9, M 3,; R Kw, S R T w B Sk I P R L C W, INEGMAReports, A 3,
8 I C G, P P N A M E (IX): D w R DJ, ICG Middle East Report, N 8, M , ; HAB, T J, Bitterlemons-inter-national, V , N 7, F 6,
9 F W, T B Nw W L E, Carn-egie Commentary, J 6, ; YH Z EN Rz,
T E L D: T U T,Third World Quarterly, V 33, N 7, A , 67-83; RB S J, A T P F L,Mediterranean Paper Series, M 9,
S A, 989? N 848? P, Bitterlemons-international, V 9, N 5, A , ; R S,W A S? 989 848?, The InternationalSpectator, V 46, N 3, S , 5-
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
6/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
,
T U S E w ( ) - Aw T , , w NA w M E N A(MENA) I z w w T
k N A , w w A
T w I k k ,: ) US E A S; ) US E, , ; 3) -A S A
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
7/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 3
Weakening of Islamist Centrists
A S , NA w I T, E, M C
A I L, w ,, , wk I A , w I w, N A MENA w
T , k W w ? S T E , k
A w , T E , w I, w w -I W w k w
I I w,w I , k k T I , , , E, I w, w, z,
T, I w w T I w -I ,
, w I w , , , S T z z I w I , k( w W) I , wk
w w I I k w
( w w ) Y, I wk
F , , k I , T k
k T E T w k w
Transatlantic Allies Policies
W wk w A S? W , N A w US PBk O w
W w T,W z T E, L w , w-,
The Euro-US Allies and Arab Changein North Africa2
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
8/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
, w W
T w U S E w T U S E, E M F, w U S z , E w W , U S w E k E : w z EU - , EU (,, ) , , k , z I -
T w T F, w , F w Le Monde [] S w T F F, EU w -, w -
R w w , A E I A w , wk I w, w, k W
I M, S T, !, Le Monde Go etpolitique, S 9, ,
T , I I k , w
, ww US E I, w W - k I w, w k
, I
A w, , , , I , US US$ E , w PM M3 C w W
I , z T w q -- W
W , , W w , w z ,
S C, C A E G, Los Angeles Times,J 7, ; S H, A D T T:T N A C E, EU ISS Opinion, J,
3 S L M, I M T F A I, USG W R A E, The New York Times,M 4, , A6
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
9/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 5
w W I , W I N A w I , , W k I W wk I w q Tw W w 3, w w w
w k B k
Islamist Foreign Policy and
Transatlantic Interests in the Region
W W-A , I -I T, E, L w I I w, C D A, w T
, , w , w P F, S ( al-Nour E Jabhatal-Islah T),4 q Z , I A , w w C DA T w w N, T
z w IT M B E
4 J Bw, S S E, The Carnegie PapersM E, D ; S L, Sk P:I Nw E S, Brookings Doha Center PolicyBriefing, J ; O A-L, S P E, Case Analysis (D I), J 9,
w I w w, w H Mk -- , -
W N A w k , , w I , E, M B k ,P M S T w I, I E w T E-I A P, k E w Mk I w w P A E w , EM B w
W P, w H 5
I A 3, , T E N-A C I, PM M B k 6 T k S , I, M B A , E, I,
5 O S, H M: N S E BwB, Carnegie Article, O ,
6 S E M S, The New York Times,A 3,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
10/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
S A, Tk k z S , w
T, I E, w W , W k W M T w w W , w, E I k Tk - A A A T P I, w, w Tk E A EM B -, w k status quo T ,
W w q N E, Mk - I , W w w N A w -
Islamists and Democracy
I W , , w
w , w W I W z I w , w , w , (
, w , ), z, , S, w w
W-A
W W , T w k W w w A w I , W M kw w w , w (, ) T w w w I , E
I ? R I , I , w w w , w 7 T , q I I R w T C D A 97-98 , w S 8U Aw S Mk, w z E
S C
7 T R, I , Gulf News, J4,
8 A A E, E , DailyNews Egypt, O 5,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
11/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 7
C N Bw wk A w S 9 I w, w k w I C, S w A A w , A 9, w S,
I, -I I w w w w wk, k
T, , w w E, , O , w w
w O , , I, , w ,
I , w C I w, I k w
w I, 9 NJ Bw, E C: I P LP B, Carnegie Article, O 3,
C L NJ Bw, I E Nw C-, Foreign Policy, D 3,
S , E O M E, CarnegiePolicy Outlook, M
w, , , , F , w , w w
Hw, w , w T w W, I I I ,
,
S T,E, L G w w w
B w wk k w I wT I ,w w w , ,
I , k W w , q W ,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
12/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
Transatlantic Perspectives
T U S E N A w MENA , q Hw ? I A S A A ?
L q w U S T O A MENA U S, T , U S, , , w US I AS, US w,
L S Y, , wk
I, PG W B k US , PO M E w A , - k w
T ) k w I w w , ,
; ) w zI w ; 3) I k I,
k W
Hw, I T I A E A (A ) I I , - T w I , I (w ) I k F, W NA, I, I q k w E , w w US W F,w US-S , , S w I-P q
, , U S w S A A , -A , k P, w w U S D 9 C , -A A GP, I-P , k U S 3
A , w w
T C DG K, T A IAEA R I: A I A,Arms Control Now. The blog ofthe Arms Control Association, A 3,
3 US G: I-P -US, Haaretz, M 7,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
13/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 9
I G S , (w S E E )4
T , U K w M wI , F, I, S, UK k EU A S T US A Swk, M w
I , E w N NATO E , L,NATO w w I ,, w
I , US wk
Israel
I , EU US AS wk W I, w, E A US , E US
T EU M , 995 E-M P(EMP) wk, w w
4 GH S,Alliance Politics, I, C U P,997
US M E P O k q I , , , A S k q , wk U S w M E , I-P, w I C, wk, , , , q w, ,
M E I , M E w A S A w
W E ? A US, E ( EU) M E N A Hw, w US MENA US , E q
E U T , , w N wk ST q , w , w G, k w w EU E E M , S E M (w F-S M) TS E , w,
I S, N A EU EU w T,w M , EU wk ,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
14/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
Turkey
T E-US --A S Tk k T A S J D P (AKP) Tk A , q , I , Tk ME w w
A k EU U S
F w,Tk w I , w T AKP w I , I O , M B A ,
w E, W M, , E, w w ( w P M w Mk) w Tk
F w , Tk w S, Iq, I, w K , z S I , S K w k,
w A-I T w F H, B N , w- EU W I E-M, w w wA A 8, A w U M (UFM) I Gz A
, A UFM w EU w
w I A A L UFM, , UFM , EU E-M E-A A, Tk UFM, E-A-Tk EU-I T, EU EU
w I , , I A Tk EU wk
T EU Ew I S A I T, I-P k wwk W w I N A
G, E w I U S I z, w -E , w
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
15/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 11
A A, w w
I wk, Tk, w , k F US w, UK, F, S E, w U S M M E
Some Conclusions
A N A w MENA T wk I A / I, I w I I
-W , -AT w S , w - A M w w US k P T -A U S E B w I w I O , ,I W
w, , k
T w NA W ,
w 5
T S B K T K WkP (PKK), - - w PKK, Tk K, Ak T w Iq K B Iq Iq K k , , Tk
I w Iq
N, Tk w ME W w , w M E P M T E, I, SA, Tk S w , w w Tk w W
w W w ?
W , A S, Tk AKP T MENA A , AKP- Tk, w W NATO, W w W M E I EU, w EU - , w w
5 T A, K P M A FS, The New York Times, S 9,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
16/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
Hw, US M E, , US , wk, W US , M E T wk US M E I
I-Pq, w I, O w w A S A , w w
Tk, , , w N A MENA, B NATO EU, w , T
A wk , wk U S , w M M E z , Tk,F, UK, A ,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
17/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 13
The United States
A , US N
A qk w Aw w , ,,
I , T U S w I , I ,k w w w T A A,E
I w , , L, U S w N, - wk w
w w
I w US , w w U S , E GCC , , T L B w k , S, w w
, W , U S -
B k, , L S, k w , w F, UK, Tk, GCC w I NATO AU, w L AS
O w M E W I-P I , k k w w, w , MENA
A k, U S A S :
A , z / , L S;
I G, , , , GCC w w
B Y w ;
I k I kI , , w T, w w
3US and European Policy Responsesto the Arab Spring
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
18/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
3+3/5+ - k I,B, Mw ( k);
I z I ,
q, E MB;6
I E, w 7
I w US (w E) w A , ) $ $3 T( $9 ); ) $3 E; 3) $77
M E N A I F 3 I , w E $ $45 A w w ,US W E
6 S C Keynote Address at the National DemocraticInstitutes 2011 Democracy Awards Dinner, N 7, ;T G, C: US W Wk w A S IP, The Blaze, N 7,
7 R S, T US R A U:L M, R A M H-S (),R-Tk W P L A U,IAI Research Paper, N 4, F , 3-53
The European Union
T E E U (EU) W , EU, US L w EU
T M , EU A S, w :) P w S M8 ) 4 EN P (ENP)9 T w ( w , , w w EU) ( , z) F, EU
w ( C S F, S P R IGw (SPRING) , EEw D) w wk , --
8 E C H R U F A S P,A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean,COM() , B, M 8,
9 E C H R U F A S P,A New Response to aChanging Neighbourhood, COM() 33 , B, M5,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
19/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 15
3
T EU z Tk F SM EU SM (B L, w G )
R w , EU , , , z (D
C F T A, DCFTA) (w z EU ) W w EU (w
; ; ; - 3) T w, w C S F , SPRING
3 I I, EU R T SM, I I A M (), AS T S M: T
EU C S O Y O, Berlaymont Paper, N, J , 6-; N T, S ()S S M S 3: T EUR,MEDPRO Policy Papers, N , A (A ); N T J-P C, Rk EUM P P-/, IAI Working Papers, N6, M
3 I I, EU R T SM,
w w
W , w EU w k 4- ( 4 , w w ), ( 85 ) , EU S M 8 -33 T EU 4 ENPI (E NP I) F -3, 54 SPRING 78 C SF33
F, M w E k: E IBk (EIB), w , E Bk R D (EBRD) w E , w 5
F , T, w T-E U Tk F , M , , J E
3 EU, The EUs Response to the Arab Spring, M//98,B, D 6, ; R Y, F AR?,Mediterranean Policy Program-Series on the Regionand the Economic Crisis, A 9,
33 Az Mzz (SRM),Economic Relations between Italy and Mediterranean Area.
Annual Report 2012, N, G, , 7-73
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
20/49
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
21/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 17
w, w EU E-M wk - , w w 4
T EU w M U S C N A w w A w k EU W , , w k I , -A SM B EU w , w :w EU E-M, w
w A I F M G Tz SA , A w, , , wI w w k F : w W w , U S T
4 R Y, T EU A : -, FRIDE Policy Brief, N , O ; T B,A R: T EU A T, NotreEurope Policy Paper, N 54, A ; N T, O YO: A B S EU R A S,Op-Med, G M F, M
, , , w w 4
T w LHw, , w , w k k L T A w w T vis--vis S, w kL w A , F, I, S, UK k w , Vk P, W , A S4 I , k , G I
, , G
T E w U S, Y, w U S, k T U S, , k T E, , w U S k T E
4 Iw M G Tz P P, N M- I E , Il Mattino, D,
4 V P, E A S, Survival, V 53,N 6, D -J , 73-84
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
22/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
M E Sz 956 I EU A U S T E
A , U S E E k F , E k w , , w US/W E W E E wM B , q E E wk EU
I , E , I F M SE M ME, A Mz M, w w B T w US , w
W , EU T E U S , (, L), T, , O , F, I, S, UK M ( , N A L,
S ) O , E w GCC , w F43 UK44 S I (, A M G) A NA , w G ( L), EU-GCC w N A, w, L T -A w w w E
w M G I ,
43 B Mk, F A S: q , FRIDE Working Paper, N , O
44 H M, T UK M E: - w ?,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
23/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 19
I , w U S E , , A S,
w I , w F, w US E N A S, w k N A , E, US E , T, w
A S w W N A
North Africa and the Middle East in the U.S.
and European Strategic Transitions
W T U S E I , , N
A M E k
The U.S. Transition
D w, w U S w N, C w w U S C W, C K45 M,
k U S T U S 8
45 C K, T U M, Foreign Affairs,V 7, N , W 99/99, 3-33
W , k w U S W w ,46 , w , S 47 A , w U S
wk , w, w,w 48 F , U S , w w w W U S , wk , T, U S
, , - w w w w 49 T , w C,
46 Z Bzzk, B E, U W USG S A U, Foreign Affairs, V 9,N , J/F , 97-4
47 JM P PK MD, T W R-, Foreign Affairs, V 9, N 6, N/D,
, 33-4748 SM W, T E A E, The NationalInterest, N 6, N-D , 6; JJM, I D, The National Interest,N , J-F , 6-34; RD K SS K, A P, The National Interest, N ,M-A , 4-54
49 SM W, T E A E,
4Perceptions and Objectives
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
24/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
US w A P
W O ? T , , , , w T, w Dz O , w ,5 O w T w w Iq A, , w , w w W P w , w A-P J5 I A-
P , L k
T O US w M E N A w I , M wk w ( )US E, J D D ( $45 ) T
5 DW Dz, D O H G S?, ForeignAffairs, V 9, N 4, J/A, , 57-68
5 US D D, Sustaining U.S. Global Leader-ship: Priorities for 21stCentury Defense, W, J; H C, A P C, Foreign Policy,N k E-W C, H,N ,
W E w W, US E, Tk, NATO, A, A L w W
T w N A M E US W C W M w US ( E,Tk, A), I L, w P G, w US A w G, US w z T , w I-A Hw,
I q O , , , w S W q w w T J - A 3, w : T US 3, E; M B ; k w I
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
25/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 21
I , , w , A S w w T U S N A M Ew w , N A M E w w
A O w , , ,MENA w , , U S w , M, L, NA I , U S w , z , T ,
Q , w , U S T w w O R M R N , w M E, w A - Pw I , , I-P q w w M
E, US The European Transition
E U S(z, )
U S w I ,, E, , E U w F D w w5 T EU, 3 , k w w I w 53
Gz w EU N, w EU, E , , wk Twk w EU O , w z L A( EU P wk C)54O ,
, EU C F S P(CFSP), wk z E 55 T , z : E
5 F D, E W P, R M (),Europe Tomorrow. Sixteen Europeans Look Ahead, L,
F/C, 97, 3-4953 E C,A Secure Europe in a Better World. Euro-
pean Security Strategy, B, D , 3
54 E C, Europe 2020. A Strategy for Smart,Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, COM() , B-, 3 M
55 CA K, C E, Survival, V 54, N ,F-M , -8
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
26/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
A E , wk EU E w q56 T, E : w U , , k I , w U w , k S w k
- w w w, , F, w w E
W N A ME ? T E :w U , E
C W I wk, w B M, M M Mq EU O M E, GCC , w EU, , k Y, I, Iq T, q w M w E w w
T w qB E U
56 R Wk, T q -,Europes World, N , S , 6-; C G, T q Ez , Europes World,N 6, A , 68-7
A S Hw, 3,
T w EU, 3 w , , EU E-M k k: , , -(W C) , - z, wk D C FT A (DCFTA) Hw ? I k
O w wk E N P (ENP), w w Hw w w ?T ENP 4 T w w, , w w , w T w I , w w F, M B , w kw ENP q, , ,
T ENP , w , W
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
27/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 23
: A W w A H,W A S w 57 I, EU k , w W
T EU M F , k , z EU M T 3 E S S EU : k w E E U M w w w
TENP, A S, w : F , ENP w
S, EU Aw w z k E-M w w I , w
57 S H, E C, A C-? W R A S, R A M H-S (), R-Tk W P L A U, IAI Research Paper, N 4, F, -9
-, C F, w , D -, A , w , k E-M EU 58 A Y,A W W59 T, EU , z , w w,
w
T, A S EU M- T A w z - E-M I
, q T I W, w , w q k 6 W , - EU wk wE-M w : ) I
, w 58 T B, A R: T EU A T-,
59 R Y, T EU A : -,
6 I S M A R, T E A I P, The Carnegie Papers, M
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
28/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
E-M w w , C, GCC, I, ( w ); ) w EU z w N T w S M w DCFTA P 6 B k, w M
P , C W M , w w
D , EU M EE-M , T , w wk, w w A S
I , w wk k T, q w N A E, w : w EU NA ? T w w EU , , w, w
A EU w M GCC ( w A , Y Iq) T
6 N T, O Y O: A B S EU R A S,
A S w I A , , E w, EU k A w
A EU M (F, I, UK, S), q A 3, w NA w k E-M W w k w M G w T, q w A Hw, w EU , w, , w A w
W M M E, E wk E : , E U z N A q, k w w ; , EU , z
A k, q: w N A M E E k? A w , w w T
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
29/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 25
EU w , S E , w F , N A M E w , w
F EU, N A ME w wk A w, w EU w M w w w A , , w S EU k , T, w k U S, NA M E w E w, w
The Evolution of the Arab Spring and the
Islamists Role: Perceptions and PoliciesT W w N A , , A w Tw k O I I W , E, w U S
T W w N A q q T W Uk , , I- ,
Hw, w A W C
Centrist Islamists
W w N A w w O , I q w , w W O , I , z6 L , , , w z I q 63 T w
w
W w w
O E U ST W U S, wk , w k
6 NJ Bw, A Hzw, M Ow, I M- D P A W: EG Z, Carnegie Papers, N 67, M 6
63 O R, The Failure of Political Islam, C, HU P, 994; O R, I R D:T T E, C M O R (),
Arab Society in Revolt. The Wests Mediterranean Challenge,W, Bk I P, J , 47-5
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
30/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
, w k- ,E , U F, E U S
A k, w U Swk / , E EU / A , E EU T L I E , w , U S , wE SE w W w I w ,
U J , US wE w w :) E w W ; ) C D A , w I , , U S w q w M B, w z N, SCAF(S C A F), , T , U S wk w- w M B, E , , ,
I , , w ( z M B
; $3 ;64 E US NGO E;65 ) Hw, M B J , k q q US W w
k
F w, k SCAF w w US Hw, P CC w E SCAF J7, - w, k w z SCAF w k w-
w M B, w w w w I 66
A B, k k w w-D P k B, M B w
64 S L M, E A E E O-, The New York Times, S 9, , A
65 R S, T US R A U: L- M,
66 M Ow N Bw, E T C:F W Tk M?, Carnegie Commentary,M 3, ; H A R, C z-?,MedArabnews, J 4,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
31/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 27
, SCAF 67
Hw, P C C, MB, w w wI w -I , w w, w T SCAF I B z w
T q w , SCAF M B w-k- , I , J , US , US S S H C-J C W,
E , w , , : , , C, / ,w w M B , k U S, I ( US I); M B w, , US k w w w 68
67 D P, T M B I Pw, Op-Med, G M F, J 8,
68 DD Kkk, C P S US ES, The New York Times, J 5, ; K F, AM W C, E M C S U PF, The New York Times, J 6,
I, E q F , SCAFw ,G A Sk, w, q MM w EC S M P , q SCAF w w w w 69 Hw,
, A , w w w , P M, k w E , G Tw , w , AF -S, , , J7 SCAF , k w SCAF w
T, US w w wk w I q , w k:
w , , w w Bz Tw , M B,
E S, H , , E C
69 M Ow, G Nw B M B E, Carn-egie Commentary, J 5,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
32/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
D A w, w
T w w S E I w w C DA, I, U S, W7 S B w-k-, , I E, -I 7
Hw, , A/I B w w, T , Tk, w F J P(FJP) w : w O , w w w A , Tw w E E 7 I w w : , w w P M I , w w- U S W,
7 K F, D I S D IW A E, The New York Times, A 3,
7 O P S B, C B Pw E: E D S Nwk, INSS Insight,N 365, A ,
7 HA H, M P: W C S E, RUSI Analysis, A 4,
w w
W , US W k A , M B U S T , , z , T Leopard( , ) I , w W, I, A T US k E , w E T , w A W Y, w W w w
w M E T , E w I, k I ( ), w W, w w w
T E q P W , 73 W , A S, A W T w U S z MB EA U S w
73 V P, E A S,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
33/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 29
w wk
T E L T w, , IL, I , T, w I E, E- N, , w , , E US w
I L, MJ J 44 8 MP T k z w 74 Hw, O N A Z T k I I , q I LH, W z I , w I w T , , E, 75 Hw, W L -
74 RB S J, A T P F L,
75 K K, P C: E E wM I, FRIDE Working Paper, N 75, J9
, L I w 76 W w - W, O , w , w T w w
A T, w w E- w w 77 T k w, IOw , w E E FJP 78T , , wk z E,
D S , E w w 79 E EU w T T , w, , ,
76 YH Z EN Rz, T E L D-: T U T,
77 M Ow, T T P S: S U-, Carnegie Commentary, J 9,
78 M Ow, T Cq I Pw S, S , E O M E, CarnegiePolicy Outlook, M , 6-
79 A W R L, R : - T M, The Journal of North AfricanStudies, V 7, N 3, J , 559-563
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
34/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States30
E , w w w
P E I U S Cq, ,w I, w E I , E A zI ,
North Africas Autonomy and Western Detachment
W - W , w AS q : ) k E; ) ,
I -I W w k w
T , , MENA T C D A, 3 NATOM D EU M, I-
T S w w S- w z E
T W A W , MENA w , T, w C D w q w W-A w B w w
P w , k E-W , S w I wI w , W w w : , , , W -
A , w N A M E W , US A w , k w wW , 967 A-I w T W U S I , w w T ( W wk) S W w -
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
35/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 31
w w
O , W W w w A , w I , w W wz, w W w I w T
I , -A S w A T , F , L, M J k , w , I w , , , w I
w Hw W w w k
P , W
z ( ) W W II, R I w q I k C Ew
I P, (w W ) I w: I k w w I, w, , , ,
8
T w q F , wk T C , , w I, S, P A A EU, w (,, , w, )A
, w , , ,
T I W ,8 wk EU NGO , w
8 S , E O M E,
8 R A, S C P R E-M R, C M O R (),
Arab Society in Revolt. The Wests Mediterranean Challenge,W, Bk I P, J , 84-3;T B, A R: T EU A T,, 6
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
36/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
-8
T , EU E w , Ew w M E U S
Security Challenges
O w M ( ,k , , ), w k
: ) ; ) ; 3) w w I
The Emerging Security Contours of the Region
T W- wk, A S qk I S wk T wk A w, N A
L/G I wk w k, E, US
T w N A L/GF , N A z, T NATO A L L A w L q M
8 R M, C S H I E- H, B Kk, The Role of NGOs in the Devel-opment of Civil Society: Europe and the Arab Countries, A V, 999, 9-48; A J, T EM CF: C W I M, SP (),A New Euro-Mediterranean Cultural Identity,L P, Fk C, 3, 84-7
S-S , L z B , S L z, , z( UN SC W-R-C) T S , w , S , w S S A Q Aw ,
S I, S w B L S T S S , w-, w
I A , w w S S, w K ( Tk )83 T w L S,
Hz, q w L, w w S Iq Iq K S, q T A , w S A GCC w S A w
W w w , k L wk Hz w k / I w B , k S -
83 HJ Bk, T E Tk F P M E, TESEV Foreign Policy Programme, J
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
37/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 33
w , AQ
A , w NA w z I S , S S I w , w M w F , S MB S 84W L, G , w w z SS , q z , w w w ,
I , S , G, A Q M, S w kk A Q Iq T z k Iq S , w I w I , S-S -w , , w w S w w S S
84 M K, B D , GulfNews, J ,
F W , , , k, k , w k , w ( GCC , I, Tk) TW S , , k w, L
O k M MqA ,N A k I , E , Mq Hw, E w M B- E I-S A E k SCAF , C w
k w I, w P M A T T , N A , w w w S-S
Fundamentalism and Jihadism
T A S k -WM , w , , S I
T S I W Hw, , w
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
38/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States34
A S, W I ,k k T , , w S I , I w I : w -, M B,
w , S, , A Q Hw w w , N A W ?
Egypt
L w k , E S W q ,
E S q T , w , - k (, w, )
Hw w E S ? W M B, w ?W w w z? O w w
? T J Bw S [] S 85
85 J Bw, S S E,
C E w M B S MB , I 86T, S B I S w , w W wB w, S k S M B
I, , S w , I q w S M B WU S , M B wk
Rz, w S , w
E M B , -M B , w z S -M M, S z q , w W 87 T w
, w
86 S L, Sk P: I Nw ES,
87 J Bw, S S E,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
39/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 35
Tunisia
I T, S w 88 T S, E, E 89W E S qk w , T (w J-I/R , S T ) S k
I k, , w 3
C A Q ? J AQ w k S, , wk , S 9I , - W
z, WL , w ,w w
Hw, - , , , w S k US Bz
88 A Z, W J I, S O
C Ew I P, J 8,; E Pk, T T EB: S, Ramadan.com, Tunisia Live, J 5,
89 A W R L, R : - T M,
9 N MFq H S, J Tk A GwR I S R, The New York Times, J 3,
M , , , w T w k , F, w w w
I , , E T, - , k k S Iq
I , w z S N A,
k L G NA k k w A w Hw, I , k w I , , - , w I z ,
T, N A W,
Sahel-Sahara
A , k , , w Mq N A Hw, kI , S-S , wT, A w M M, M, N, C I 7, I z A w A Q, w
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
40/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States36
A Q I M, AQIM CAQIM N A ? A, AQIM w AQ O w C F , , AQIM S wk I w k ,9 k -
k w A M M S w w
A I w / AT w A Q w W GSPC (Groupe Salafiste
pour la Prdication et le Combat)
A Q, AQIM, z : M-S-S E w Iq W A Q M , AQIM w A Q ME 9 AQIM w k w : S, A, M I ,, AQIM wk
S M
9 D C R F, A Q I M(AQIM): I A R IR, IAI Working Papers, N 7, A
9 J-P F, A-Q I M A C- G T?, Carnegie Papers, N 4, O9
E - I (k, k, ) I S I A M93 I E W L?
G L S G A S, L , w w L w A, w Hw, w S, A, w z F, w GL S, w w L 94
T L w S , N A S 95 Hw, - M AQIM w A -D T I w , AQIM N A 96 I - Azw G T
93 O A A A, A C M,Actuelles de lIFRI, J 9,
94 YH Z, Q Sw, Foreign Affairs Snapshot, J
4, 95 W L, R R R Cw L, M A (), P, R, RC A W A, C, I, P A, SWP Research Paper, N 6/, F , 47-5
96 B R, T Nw A Q M, The National Interest,A 8,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
41/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 37
AQIM A -D, k T I I S w S M w E w
A , M AQIM A -D k w, N A , Hw, z , , , , w z I w qD z w w A , I w w I- w I/A N A
WF w W , w q w k I w W I, w w w I w w , w W Hw, I I, T I w I , w w
I , w W I
The Arab-Israeli Setting
I A S , q, A-I T I-P , , w I I , w, A k Mw, I k w w A I-P , I T, A-I qk k - A S Hw, I , w I-
w N A L , q O A-I w k W
W q ? I, w w ( I -- I,
w k ), I w w I, , P-I 97 T
97 K K, I- : w ?,FRIDE Policy Brief, N , M
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
42/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States38
CD A, w , w k k Mk W w w w Z , w , wI A S, w
( -N E J -I T) , I 98I , S z( A -S T) I , I w w , C D w w N, ,
I w I , , w T T z w I
M, k I k I / -A S S w
, I , wk I , T w
98 J Bw, S S E, ; S L, Sk P: I Nw E S, ; OA-L, S P E,
I-P w
A k A A-I , E T C D Hw w Mk ?T w I- E w k C D A 99 A M E , w M T w q , w, , w : ) E w I, S C D A ; ) I-P , , w E q C D A
Sinai
T S C k w I k E W E I w E N, E w S T w - B -w ,
99 P Dz-V, A P- E FP? N Y, Op-Med, G M F, J ,
N P, Sinai: The Buffer Erodes, L, CH, S
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
43/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 39
w , z Gz F, Gz A w w A Q I z
I A S k E , I, , I-E : A 8, k I-E (w J H), w E wk I -; 4 k - E I (w A ); A5, k K E w I k 6 E k
T A E T w CD A I C S , S I E , , q w - T P M w , w, Gz
P M I w, ,
J G, S S I, Sada O C Ew I P,M 5, ; L A, S: ,Bitterlemons-international, V 3, N 3, M 9,
S E, E R G Aw I: S I, INSS Insight, N 33, M6,
FM Tw , w , - 3 S, , w q C DA
P M w E T I, w w, , k wk 4I w k Ew w, , w w E w k S I , w 5 I , E S, w I E
S , C D A
O Zz, I CG, I w ,k w
w E T w wE w kE
3 K F, E L P G I R-, The New York Times, A 3,
4 B B Z G, S V S, TheNational Interest, A ,
5 A Bk, S, Nw E, E-I PT,Jerusalem Issue Briefs, V , N 9, A ,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
44/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States40
w F , E H (I), w w IM, w W S M B w CD A, , , , , k, / w W, , -
A E w I P w P F , w, A, I, W I wk , MkE w , I-P I , B w
W O wk F I w ww k w- T I k , 8 I , F q w H k I W B F w A-I , W A G9 I , w B w - w q
8 N T, T T I I I, The New YorkTimes, J 4,
9 I C G, T E H N C:P E P P,
6
A , w
W W w I , E q w I , w w w w E
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
W I-P w w I- ?T k z NBw H, K M, E w P M: P w w7T Gz E-A S H P E B I , Ew w
-- k k H Hw, z E L (S), I-P w E , B w, , A
I M B E
w A w, I-P P
6 O Zz, Q I ?, Le Figaro, J 5,
7 NJ Bw, P C W F Nw, The DailyBeast, J ,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
45/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 41
, , W A k w wk -I : w H E B, , w B- E I A I, , q
N T, T T I I I,
O -w w T, US EU MB z w z I , w k k E T w W w N A w M E
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
46/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States42
Transatlantic Allies in their Relations with
Islamist-Led Countries
T I I w w
W -A U S E , w k I w w I
I w , z k , A S, W w , W, ,
T , w I , w w A , w - , , , -
I w I w I , I w I-
w W
W MENA , S , E , k w wk w- , k P M A N-A C T
M , w I- wW A zT U M B k, NATOM D IC I (ICI) w w wk W-A
T , US, w k w CD A E , Gz E, I-P
W C D A, I
E w w , k w w-E T
P F, T T M E F NATO P, SWP Comments, N 35/,N
5Policy Recommendations
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
47/49
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa 43
w w ,k I , k E
A I-P , w k w W-A I , wI ,w US w , k , w w w I , U S EU MB z , I-P , w z I
T I W S S I A W , k ) w M AQIM A -D T, ) T-S CP (TSCTP), 3) w T EU S S D S (SSDS), k , w ,
k, q
T wk w I- , W k
,3 I , , w M kw w w w ( )T w w , E
Relations among Transatlantic Allies with
Regard to North Africa and the Middle East
W , Tk, , , w MENA , T MENA F w, NATO EU , w, MENA
I , w U S EU
F R, T EU A R D S T S, Elcano Expert Comments, N3/, O ,
3 S , E O M E,
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
48/49
The German Marshall Fund of the United States44
W wk, US w Hw, k w w
F , C G w M, M E, S-S NATO wk, T G -
T E , , G C W M, 5+5G T w 994 M F I ,
- W A N A L
A w , NATO wk w w B k, E EU
T z k N A G W NATO MD ICI , EU w M G EU w
7/30/2019 A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North Africa
49/49
Off i c e s