A Tool for Urban Air Pollution Analysis - PCD.go.thinfofile.pcd.go.th/air/DIESEL2_IAIA-IDEA-Presentation.pdf · Air Pollution Environmental degradation is a priority issue in the

11

IInteractive nteractive DDatabase for atabase for EEmission mission AAnalysisnalysis-- IDEAIDEA --

Eri SaikawaEri SaikawaEast Asia RegionEast Asia RegionThe World BankThe World Bank

School of Public and Env ironmental AffairsSchool of Public and Env ironmental AffairsIndiana UniversityIndiana University

August 11, 2004August 11, 2004

A Tool for Urban Air A Tool for Urban Air Pollution AnalysisPollution Analysis

OutlineOutline

�� Context of Integrated Air Quality Context of Integrated Air Quality Management (IAQM)Management (IAQM)

�� Critical Need for Information in IAQMCritical Need for Information in IAQM�� Interactive Database for Emission Analysis Interactive Database for Emission Analysis

(IDEA)(IDEA)�� Case StudiesCase Studies�� IDEA IDEA –– Potential Uses and LimitationsPotential Uses and Limitations�� Future DirectionsFuture Directions

22

Air PollutionAir Pollution�� Environmental degradation is a priority issue Environmental degradation is a priority issue

in the developing worldin the developing world�� Air pollution is a problem which has significant Air pollution is a problem which has significant

socialsocial, , economiceconomic and and environmentalenvironmental impactsimpacts�� Key factors:Key factors:

•• Increasing Urban Population/IndustrializationIncreasing Urban Population/Industrialization•• Growing Vehicular Demand/Domestic NeedsGrowing Vehicular Demand/Domestic Needs

Urbanization is increasingUrbanization is increasing……

33

Including in East AsiaIncluding in East Asia……

Health Risks of Air PollutionHealth Risks of Air Pollution

PMPM -- premature mortality, lung, potential effects premature mortality, lung, potential effects on hearton heart

SOSO22 -- respiratory, possibly mortality effectsrespiratory, possibly mortality effectsCOCO -- circulatory system, Heartcirculatory system, Heart

OO33 -- respiratory system, lungrespiratory system, lungNONOxx -- respiratory, precursor of Orespiratory, precursor of O33

PbPb -- nerv ous system, brainnerv ous system, brain

44

Air pollution impacts Air pollution impacts many urban areas in Asiamany urban areas in Asia

00

5050

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

400400

Bangko

k

Bangko

k

BusanBusan

Chongqi n

g

Chongqi n

g

Colombo

Colombo

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Jaka rta

Jaka rta

Kolkata

Kolkata

Manila

Manila

Mumbai

Mumbai

New D

elhi

New D

elhi

Osaka

Osaka

PunePune

Singapore

Singapore

Seoul

Seoul

Shangh

ai

Shangh

ai

TokyoTokyo

conc

entra

tion

in

conc

entra

tion

in µµ

g/m

g/m

Source: Information collected from national and local governmentSource: Information collected from national and local governmentagencies through CAIagencies through CAI--Asia network, 2003, detailed sources available from CAIAsia network, 2003, detailed sources available from CAI--Asia Secretariat Asia Secretariat

SO2 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)

NO2 Limit = 40 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)

SPM Limit = 90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)

PM10 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)

How can this be How can this be addressed effectively?addressed effectively?

�� Recognition of problem and management Recognition of problem and management optionsoptions

�� An integrated air quality management An integrated air quality management (IAQM) approach(IAQM) approach

�� Adequate knowledge base and analytical Adequate knowledge base and analytical toolstools

�� Effective collaboration across stakeholders Effective collaboration across stakeholders towards a shared goaltowards a shared goal

55

Key elements of IAQMKey elements of IAQM

SourcesSources

Air QualityAir Quality

ImpactsImpacts

Integrated Integrated Air Quality Air Quality ManagementManagementPolicy Policy

OptionsOptionsTechnical Technical OptionsOptions

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES�� Focus on key Focus on key

pollutants (e.g. finepollutants (e.g. fineparticulates)particulates)

�� Improv e Improv e understanding of understanding of key pollution key pollution sourcessources

�� Assess impactsAssess impacts�� Analysis of Analysis of

alternative alternative management management strategies/optionsstrategies/options

Economic Economic OptionsOptions

Typical constraints for IAQMTypical constraints for IAQM

�� Systematic Systematic collationcollation of existing data and of existing data and informationinformation

�� UpUp--toto--date and consistent date and consistent database database (on (on pollution sources and ambient levels, pollution sources and ambient levels, impacts, and responses) and effective impacts, and responses) and effective integrative integrative analytical toolsanalytical tools

�� Stakeholder interactionStakeholder interaction and and institutional institutional capacitycapacity

66

Conceptual framework for Conceptual framework for this initiativethis initiative

�� Collation:Collation: Systematically organize existing Systematically organize existing information on selected cities to aid IAQMinformation on selected cities to aid IAQM

�� Database & Tools:Database & Tools: Development of Development of IDEA IDEA –– an Interactive Database for Emissions an Interactive Database for Emissions AnalysisAnalysis

�� Stakeholders:Stakeholders: Building partnerships to Building partnerships to develop a shared knowledge basedevelop a shared knowledge base

Case Study CitiesCase Study Cities

JakartaJakarta

HanoiHanoi

ShanghaiShanghaiBeijingBeijing

BangkokBangkok

77

What is IDEA?What is IDEA?Ambient Air Quality LevelAmbient Air Quality Level

Dispersi

on

Dispersi

onM

odeling

Modeli

ngMeteoro

logy

Meteoro

logy

EmissionsEmissions

Management OptionsManagement Options

••EconomicEconomic••AdministrativeAdministrative••PolicyPolicy••TechnicalTechnical

Economic & PolicyEconomic & PolicyAssessmentAssessment

Integrated Modeling/Integrated Modeling/Stakeholder FeedbackStakeholder Feedback

ExposureExposure

DamageDamageAssessmentAssessment

DoseDose--Response/Response/ValuationValuation

Populat ion

Populat ion

Dist ribution & Activity

Dist ribution & Activity

Exposure

ExposureAs sessment

As sessmentIDEAIDEA

•• Systematic Knowledge Systematic Knowledge Base (sources, ambient Base (sources, ambient levels, impacts, options)levels, impacts, options)

••Use in impact assessment Use in impact assessment and analysis of alternativesand analysis of alternatives

What Types of Information What Types of Information does IDEA focus on?does IDEA focus on?

�� GeneralGeneral�� Sources & EmissionsSources & Emissions�� Ambient LevelsAmbient Levels�� ImpactsImpacts�� OptionsOptions

88

GeneralGeneral�� Ongoing ProjectsOngoing Projects�� Policies, LegislationPolicies, Legislation�� PopulationPopulation�� GIS DatabasesGIS Databases�� MapsMaps�� StudiesStudies

Jakarta Beijing Shanghai HanoiPopulation (2000) 11,018,000 13,820,000 16,740,000 3,751,000 Area (km2) 661.52 16800 6340.5 918Monitoring data

TSP (µg/m3) 11.6-189.2 370 162

PM10 (µg/m3) 45-146

NOx (µg/m3) 45-187 71 62SO2 (µg/m

3) 9.5-40.5 64 43 1-98

Pollutants and SourcesPollutants and Sources

Industrial and Power SectorIndustrial and Power SectorCoal, Fuel Oil, NGCoal, Fuel Oil, NG

Domestic SectorDomestic SectorCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPGCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPG

Transportation SectorTransportation SectorGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPGGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG

Anthropogenic SourcesAnthropogenic Sources

99

Pollutants and SourcesPollutants and Sources

Biomass Burning Biomass Burning Controlled and uncontrolled Controlled and uncontrolled

combustioncombustion

VolcanoesVolcanoes

Dust OutbreaksDust Outbreaks

Natural SourcesNatural Sources

EmissionsEmissions

EmissionsEmissions

Inputs Inputs •• Total Fuel Use Total Fuel Use –– Coal, oil, gas, natural gas, Coal, oil, gas, natural gas,

alternativesalternatives

•• Industrial Fuel UseIndustrial Fuel Use

•• Electricity DemandElectricity Demand

•• Vehicle N umber by Age/T ypeVehicle N umber by Age/T ype

•• Vehicle Km Travel edVehicle Km Travel ed

•• TrendsTrends

•• Road N etwor kRoad N etwor k

Outputs Outputs • Emissions apportionment Emissions apportionment

by sourceby source

•• Spatial distributionSpatial distribution

•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios

•• Control Control vsvs Cost estimates Cost estimates f or key pollutantsf or key pollutants

……input into input into Dispersion Dispersion ModelsModels

Emission Estimation Emission Estimation f or Key Pollutantsf or Key Pollutants

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionCharacteristics

•••

•••

•• Emission Factors for key Emission Factors for key pollutants pollutants –– PMPM1010, SO, SO22, , NONOxx, CO, CO22

•• Point Source Locations & Point Source Locations & EmissionsEmissions

•• Emission Control Emission Control Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options

1010

DispersionDispersion

Inputs Inputs •• Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

•• MeteorologyMeteorology

•• Ambient Concentration Ambient Concentration DataData

•• Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options

•• Maps/GIS informationMaps/GIS information

Outputs Outputs

•• Ambient ConcentrationsAmbient Concentrations

•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios

•• Spatial patternsSpatial patterns

•• Exposure levelsExposure levels

……input into input into Exposure ModelsExposure Models

Units: mg/m3 PM10

120. 8 121 121. 2 121.4 12 1.6 121. 8 122

30. 8

31

31. 2

31. 4

31. 6

31. 8

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Emissions

Spatial DistributionSpatial Distributionof Ambient Concentrationsof Ambient Concentrations

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionsCharacteristics

•••

•••

Meteorology

DispersionModeling

ExposureExposure

Inputs Inputs

•• Ambient ConcentrationsAmbient Concentrations

•• Population DistributionPopulation Distribution

•• Distribution of other Distribution of other sensitive receptorssensitive receptors

•• Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options

Outputs Outputs

•• Health EstimateHealth Estimate

•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios

……input into input into Economic Economic Analysis ModelsAnalysis Models

Units: µg/m3 PM10

120. 8 121 121. 2 121.4 121. 6 121.8 122

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

Impact/ExposureImpact/ExposureAssessmentAssessment

1111

Typical Options for IAQMTypical Options for IAQM�� EconomicEconomic: taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges, : taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges,

fines, tradable permitsfines, tradable permits�� AdministrativeAdministrative: emission, energy efficiency : emission, energy efficiency

and fuel quality standards, restrictions on and fuel quality standards, restrictions on operation, inspection and maintenance, operation, inspection and maintenance, industrial complianceindustrial compliance

�� PolicyPolicy: monitoring, compliance, transport : monitoring, compliance, transport systems, traffic management, public transport, systems, traffic management, public transport, NMT, industry, zoning, landNMT, industry, zoning, land--useuse

�� TechnologicalTechnological: fuel improvements, cleaner : fuel improvements, cleaner technologies, endtechnologies, end--ofof--pipe control devices, pipe control devices, cleaner production cleaner production

Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis

Inputs Inputs •• Health and Other Health and Other

Damages and Damages and Valuation under Valuation under v arious v arious scenarios/optionsscenarios/options

•• Costs of various Costs of various optionsoptions

Outputs Outputs

•• CostCost--Effectiv eness of Effectiv eness of v arious optionsv arious options

•• Net Benef its of v arious Net Benef its of v arious optionsoptions

……input for input for Decision Decision SupportSupport

Economic Analysis Economic Analysis of Various of Various

Management OptionsManagement Options

$$$

Cost-Effectiveness Graph (for Selected Component)

- 505

1 0

1 52 02 5

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Emission R eduction (tons/day)

Incr

emen

tal C

os($

/ton)

1212

IDEA: An ExcelIDEA: An Excel--based Toolbased Tool

JakartaJakarta

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

µg

/m3

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1991

Year

TSP concentration

Pulo GadungKayu Manis

CiledugHalim P.MonasGlodok

BandenganAncolBMG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

PJ

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Energy Consumption by Fuel in Jakarta

Heat/Steam

Electr icity

Nuc lear

Renew ables

Natural Gas

Light Frac tionsMiddle Dis tillates

Heavy Fuel Oil

Biof uels

Coal

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Po

pu

latio

n

195 0 19 55 1960 1965 19 70 1 975 1 980 198 5 19 90 1995 200 0

Ye ar

Populat ion i n Jakarta 1950-2000

1313

Potential Uses of IDEAPotential Uses of IDEA

�� CityCity--level air quality databaseslevel air quality databases�� Selection and Analysis of Options/ScenariosSelection and Analysis of Options/Scenarios

�� Useful for environmental assessment (baseline, Useful for environmental assessment (baseline, impacts, analysis of alternatives)impacts, analysis of alternatives)

�� Modeling Framework Development and Modeling Framework Development and ApplicationApplication

�� Common platform for collaboration at cityCommon platform for collaboration at city--levellevel

DIESELDIESEL--IDEAS programIDEAS programDDeveloping eveloping IIntegrated ntegrated EEmission mission SStrategies trategies for for EExisting xisting LLand transport and transport ––

IInformed nformed DDecisionecision--support support for for EEvaluating valuating AAlternative lternative SStrategiestrategies

1414

LimitationsLimitations�� Results are only as good as the databases Results are only as good as the databases ––

coverage, quality, consistency and access coverage, quality, consistency and access problemsproblems

�� Consensus on types of options to be consideredConsensus on types of options to be considered�� Evolving methodologies and tools for Evolving methodologies and tools for

assessmentassessment�� Involvement of multiple stakeholders and Involvement of multiple stakeholders and

disciplinesdisciplines�� Adequate reflection of political economyAdequate reflection of political economy�� Actual Actual USEUSE and continuous updating of the and continuous updating of the

systems developedsystems developed

Next StepsNext Steps

�� Going deeperGoing deeper�� Better Quality and Updated DataBetter Quality and Updated Data�� Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision

Support SystemsSupport Systems�� Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of

Alternative Strategies/OptionsAlternative Strategies/Options�� Going broader: More CitiesGoing broader: More Cities�� Dissemination: WebDissemination: Web--based Systemsbased Systems�� Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for

Shared knowledge base; Institutional Shared knowledge base; Institutional ““homehome””

1515

GovernmentGovernmentIndustry groupsIndustry groups

JudiciaryJudiciary

Research institutesResearch institutes

International International organizationsorganizations

Community groupsCommunity groups

Clean airClean air

NGOsNGOs

In ConclusionIn Conclusion……

�� Organized information is essential for IAQM Organized information is essential for IAQM in urban areasin urban areas

�� IDEA is one approach to piloting the userIDEA is one approach to piloting the user--friendly organization of such informationfriendly organization of such information

�� It could have many uses despite limitationsIt could have many uses despite limitations

1616

Thank You!Thank You!

Questions?Questions?Comments?Comments?