Smallholder Fish Production in Nigeria A technical and economical feasibility study for tilapia cage farming and food security in Nigeria IMARES - LEI Wageningen, 8 July 2013
Smallholder Fish Production in Nigeria
A technical and economical feasibility study for tilapia cage farming and food security in Nigeria
IMARES - LEI
Wageningen, 8 July 2013
NIGERIA: A huge market
Country (july 2012 est.):
● nearly 170 million
● 7th most populated country in the world
● young population
Lagos (july 2012 est.):
● nearly 20 million
● 12% Nigerian pop.
● most populous city in the world
NIGERIA: A huge market
Year Pop. (Million)
Per capita fish consumption (kg)
Projected fish demand at 7,5 (tonnes)
Projected fish demand at 13.5 (tonnes)
Domestic production (tonnes)
2010 158 7,5-13,5 1,185,000 2,133,000 810,000
2015 180 7,5-13,5 1,350,000 2,430,000 @@@
2020 204 7,5-13,5 1,530,000 2,754,000 @@@
Estimation of fish consumption per capita varies widely from 7,5 kg to 13,5 kg per year.
This is still below the world average.
Although trade statistics are lacking, it is mentioned that Nigeria imported around 1.1
million tonnes of fish in 2010 (FAO).
Nigeria Fisheries Data (2010)
Total Annual Fish Demand: 2.66 Million Tons
Domestic Production: 0.80 Million Tons
Aquaculture Production: 0.20 Million Tons
Quantity Imported: 0.80 Million Tons
Supply Deficit: 1.06 Million Tons
Value of Imports: N100 Billion (USD 625 Million)
Source: Federal Department of Fisheries, Nigeria
NIGERIA: A huge market
Fish and seafood production (tonnes)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Aquaculture
Marine fisheries
Inland fisheries
Aquaculture production is
increasing rapidly.
Fisheries production is
stagnating.
Aquaculture production (tonnes)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Others
Tilapias nei
Nile perch
Carps, barbels and other cyprinids
North African catfish
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tilapias nei
African catfish production
has increased rapidly.
Production data ????
(Nile tilapia, Nile perch, ...)
Natural waters
Fresh water
Dams and Reservoirs:
● #917 (300.000 ha; 30 billions m3) across the country
● No dams in Lagos State, well in neighbouring States
● Irrigation, water supply, hydro-electric power generation
● Aquaculture (just started)
Lakes, rivers, floodplains, ponds
Brackish waters
Epe lagoon (field data)
CAGE FARMING
Temperature: 26-35oC
Transparency: 0.31-1.50 m
Dissolved O2: 1.8-4.8 mg/L
Salinity: 0.58-5.50 ppt
pH:6.5-8.7
Max depth: 5 m
(deep water: for transport)
Badagry lagoon
CAGE FARMING
Lagos lagoons (10 lagoons; ±70.000 ha)
Big lagoons: Lagos (60x15km; 46.000ha), Lekki (37x23km; 24.700ha);
Salinity: 0-22 ppt (wet-dry seasonal variation)
Depth: Lagos (0.5-2 m; 5m; 25m (harbor part), Lekki (3.1-6.4m)
Low dissolved oxygen concentration
Heavily polluted (domestic sewage, industrial dumping)
Water hyacinth invasion
Public water (no community control)
Opportunities for the BoP involvment
Job creation in the whole value chain (VC)
Income generation and affordable proteins
Many actors in the primary sector=> big volumes
Better coordinated control of the market
Impacts upstream and downstream in the VC
● Agriculture production of feed ingredients locally
● Fish marketing and processing
● .......
The scenario and technical feasibility of
upscaling Tilapia cage farming in natural
waters
Small holder producers CLUSTERS of FISH FARMERS
Cages Seeds Feeds Technical assistance
Capitals
Auto-consumption
Direct Sales to consumers
Consumers
SH
SH SH SH
SH
SH SH SH
Processing (?)
Organised MARKET
INPUT SUPPLIERS
Cost price analysis of 2 tilapia cage farms
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Company A Company B
Euro
pe
r kg
pro
du
ct
Cost price
Others
Labour
DPM
Fuel
Feed
Juveniles
The farm gate price of fresh tilapia is presently 2.18 €/kg for company A and 2.55 €/kg for company B.
Cash flow of 2 tilapia cage farms
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Euro
Cumulative cash flow over 20 years
Company A
Company B
In the basic scenario, the break-even point for company A will be reached after 10 to 13 years,
with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 6.8%. Company B is at present economically not viable.
Market prices at different scenario’s
Feed price Company A Company B
present level 2.41 3.77
-10% 2.24 3.52
-20% 2.06 3.29
-30% 1.89 3.06
-40% 1.71 2.80
Farm gate price of fresh tilapia in euro/kg, needed for an internal rate of return (IRR) of 30% at different price levels of fish feed in the two types of tilapia cage farms A and B.
Current issues - Aquaculture
High cost of feeds (>70% production costs)
Lack of quality fingerlings
High bank loon interests
Smallholders (organisation & funding)
License to farm natural waters
Projected issues – Intensive cage farming
Idem as above
Sustainability – if not tackled from the start
RESEARCH AREAS to SUPPORT INDUSTRY
FEEDS (locally produced)
cheap + optimal
SEEDS
breeding programmes
SUSTAINABILITY
carrying capacity vs feeds
environmental impact assessment
COLLABORATIONS
WUR (LEI / IMARES) + NIGERIAN INSTITUTES
DUTCH + NIGERIAN COMPANIES
Smallholder Fish Production in Nigeria
Thank you