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Review
A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal hippocampalatrophy in healthy human ageing☆,☆☆,★,★★
Mark A. Fraser ⁎, Marnie E. Shaw, Nicolas Cherbuin
Centre for Research on Ageing, Health and Wellbeing, Florey, Building 54, Mills Road, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
a b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 25 October 2014
Accepted 14 March 2015Available online 20 March 2015
Keywords:
Hippocampus
MRI
Longitudinal
Ageing
Epidemiology
Controls
Introduction: This review aimed to produce hippocampal atrophy rate estimates from healthy ageing studies as
well as control samples from observational studies across the adult lifespan which can be used as benchmarks
to evaluate abnormal changes in pathological conditions.Methods: The review followed PRISMA guidelines. PUBMED (to February 2014) was searched for longitudinal
MRI studies reporting hippocampal atrophy or volume change in cognitively healthy individuals. Titles were
screened and non-English, duplicate or irrelevant entries were excluded. Remaining record abstracts were
reviewedto identify studiesfor fulltext retrieval. Fulltext wasretrieved andscreened againstinclusion/exclusion
criteria. Bibliographies and previous reviews were examined to identify additional studies. Data were
summarised using meta-analysis and age, segmentation technique and study type weretested as potential mod-
erators using meta-regression. It was hypothesised that population studies would produce higher atrophy rates
than clinical observational studies.
Results: The systematic search identied 4410 entries and 119studieswere retrievedwith 58 failing selectionor
quality criteria, 30 were excluded as multiple reports and 3 studies were unsuitable for meta-analysis. The re-
maining 28 studies were included in the meta-analysis, n = 3422, 44.65% male, 11,735 person-years of follow-
up, mean age was 24.50 to 83 years. Mean total hippocampal atrophy for the entire sample was 0.85% per year
(95% CI 0.63, 1.07). Age based atrophy rates were 0.38% per year (CI 0.14, 0.62) for studies with mean age
b55 years (n = 413), 0.98% (CI 0.27, 1.70) for 55 to b70 years (n = 426), and 1.12% (CI 0.86, 1.38) for
≥70 years (n = 2583). Meta-regression indicated age was associated with increased atrophy rates of 0.0263%(CI 0.0146, 0.0379) per year and automated segmentation approaches were associated with a reduced atrophy
rate of −0.466% (CI −0.841, −0.090). Population studies were not associated with a signicant effect on atro-
phy. Analyses of 11 studies separately measuring left and right hippocampal atrophy (n = 1142) provided little
evidence of laterality effects. While no study separately reported atrophy by gender, a number tested for gender
effects and 2 studies reported higher atrophy in males.
Conclusions: Hippocampal atrophy rates increase with age with the largest increases occurring from midlife on-
wards. Manual segmentation approaches result in higher measured atrophy rates.
© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Search strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Inclusion and exclusion criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Data extraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
NeuroImage 112 (2015) 364–374
☆ Statistical analysis: Mark Frasera.☆☆ Disclosure: The authors have reported no conicts of interest.★ Disclosures: Mark Fraser reports no disclosures. This study is not industry sponsored.
★★ Contributions: Mr. Fraser contributed to the design of the study, conducted all statistical analyses, and managed all aspects of manuscript preparation and submission. Dr. Shaw
providedmethodological input and theoretical expertise,and contributed to writing and editing of the manuscript. Dr. Cherbuin contributed to the design of the study andthe statistical
analyses, provided methodological input and theoretical expertise, and contributed to writing and editing of the manuscript.
⁎ Corresponding author. Fax: +61 2 6125 1558.
E-mail address: [email protected] (M.A. Fraser).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2015.03.035
1053-8119/© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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8/18/2019 A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Hippocampal Atrophy in Healthy Human Ageing
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Statistical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Missing data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Meta-analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Reporting bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Meta-analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Reporting bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Laterality effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Moderators & heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Reporting bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Dropouts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Limitations of the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Appendix A. Supplementary data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Introduction
The hippocampus plays an essential role in memory function, goal
selection, and mood regulation. Hippocampal volume changes have
been associated with neurological conditions including Alzheimer's
disease ( Jack et al., 2000; West et al., 1994), Parkinson's disease
(Camicioli et al., 2003), Huntington's disease (Majid et al., 2011),
epilepsy (Liu et al., 2001), schizophrenia (Wang et al., 2008), and
depression (Arnone et al., 2012; Steffens et al., 2011). Hippocampal
volume changes also occur across the typical adult lifespan (Raz et al.,
2010). However, the magnitude of normal hippocampal age related
change is unclear and this presents a challenge when evaluating
abnormal changes in pathological conditions such as Alzheimer's
disease.
In order to accurately estimate hippocampal change in pathological
conditions it is critical that reliable and precise estimates be available
for generally healthy populations of different ages. This review
has focused on estimates from longitudinal studies in preference tocross-sectional estimates because cross-sectional estimates can be con-
founded by individual subject baseline volumes. Studies where both
longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses were used indicate that
cross-sectional studies are less able to detect hippocampal volume
change effects (Du et al., 2006; Raz et al., 2005; Ridha et al., 2006 ).
There is now a substantial bodyof researchinvestigatinglongitudinal
hippocampal volume change across multiple domains encompassing
the entire adult lifespan. The domain covering younger individuals fo-
cuses on neurodegenerative conditions that become apparent in adoles-
cenceor young adulthood such as schizophrenia, temporal lobe epilepsy
and mood disorders (Geuze et al., 2005). The studies in these younger
age groups tend to have small sample sizes and small effect sizes
(b0.5% annualised atrophy). A second domain of research focuses on
conditions that become apparent later in life including AD, other formsof dementia, Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease and other age re-
lated pathologies (Geuze et al., 2005). Hippocampal atrophy rates in-
crease prior to the appearance of AD symptoms and continue to
increase as the disease progresses (Fox et al., 2001; Ridha et al., 2006;
Whitwell et al., 2007). Given that theincidence of dementia is increasing
as populations worldwide age (Fratiglioni et al., 1999), a growing body
of research on dementia with many large samples primarily focused
on people over 50 years of age has emerged. In a review of AD studies,
Barnes et al. (2009) estimated annualised atrophy rates of 4.66% per
year (95% CI 3.92, 5.40) for AD subjects and 1.41% per year (95% CI
0.52, 2.30) for healthy elderly controls. A third domain investigates
changes in healthy ageing in normal individuals. Available evidencesug-
gests that hippocampal volumes change throughout adult life in a non-
linear manner (Raz et al., 2010), with hippocampal volume being
relatively stable in young adulthood. There appears to be a critica
point after 50 years of age when the rate of hippocampal atrophy accel
erates to 0.8–0.9% per yearwithhippocampal volumes decliningsteadil
thereafter with age (Fjell et al., 2013; Schuff et al., 2012).
The aim of this review was rstly to provide age-specic dataon th
rates of hippocampal atrophy across the adult lifespan which are as rep
resentative as possible of the normal population. The second aim was t
investigatethe effects of segmentation techniqueson atrophy measure
ments. Thirdly, we sought to investigate the impact of study design on
measured atrophy rates. It was hypothesised that population studie
would produce higher atrophy rates due to less restrictive health
based exclusion criteria than control groups used in clinical investiga
tions. Our nal goal was to summarise other ndings pertinent to nor
mal ageing such as gender and laterality effects.
Methods
This systematic review and meta-analysis followed the PreferredReporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA
2009 guidelines without prior publication of the review protoco
(Moher et al., 2009). The literature search was based on pre
determined search terms, inclusion, exclusion and quality criteria tha
included the assessment of bias at the study level. The approach used
for data collection, conrmation and data simplications are fully de
scribed. The risk of bias across studies was assessed and the post ho
analyses are clearly identied.
Search strategy
PUBMED (1950 to February 2014) was searched using the terms
“(hippocampus or hippocamp*) and (longitudinal or atrophy or chang
or volume or volumetry or volumetric) and humans and (magnetic resonance imaging or MRI or neuroimaging)”. All returned titles wer
screened and any non-English, duplicate or clearly irrelevant entrie
were excluded. Next, the remaining record abstracts were reviewed to
identify studies for full text review. Full text and supplementary materi
al of potential studies were retrieved for screening against inclusion an
exclusion criteria. Bibliographies of retrieved reports and previous re
views covering hippocampal atrophy were examined to identify addi
tional studies for inclusion.
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Published studies were included if they met the following criteria
(1) were an empirical study; (2) measured adult human hippocampa
volume from in-vivo structural MRI images at more than one time
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point; and(3) included at least one group of healthy participants, cogni-
tively normal or derived from a population sample. Studies were ex-
cluded if they (a) reported exclusively on clinical treatment groups
(including placebo treatments); (b) were case studies or samples with
less than twenty participants; (c) had an MRI follow-up period of less
than twelve months; (d) the age or gender of the sample could not be
ascertained; or (e) did not provide information to allow calculation of
hippocampal atrophy. Studies meeting the inclusion and exclusion
criteria were assessed for quality using a checklist adapted from previ-ous reviews and the Cochrane collaboration handbook (Anstey et al.,
2011; Harlein et al., 2009; JPT and Green, 2011; Stroup et al., 2000).
Mandatory quality criteria were a prospective design, a dened study
period, specication of population characteristics, standardised data
collection and the absence of signicant bias in the sample selection.
For example, samples that had been constructed to increase the propor-
tion of participants with a family history of AD were excluded.
Data extraction
Data wereextracted bytwo of theauthors(MF and MS) and discrep-
ancies were resolved by consensus. Where a particular sample was re-
ported in multiple studies, the study that best t the selection criteria
and provided information in the format most suitable for meta-
analysis was included and other studies were excluded. Studies that
measured hippocampal volume using manual techniques were
classied as using ‘Manual segmentation’ and studies that used
automated or semi-automated segmentation techniques were classied
as using ‘Automated segmentation’. Follow-up periods were converted
to years and atrophy measures were converted to % per year with
positive atrophy representing a loss of hippocampal tissue. Variance
information was converted to standard deviations (SD). Where
atrophy was not provided, it was calculated using the formula:
Atrophy = ((volume_time1 − volume_time2) / volume_time1) /
(time1 − time2). Total atrophy was calculated by averaging left and
right atrophy weighted by left and right hippocampal volumes. Authors
of the selected studies were contacted via email to gain additional infor-
mation or seek clarication where required. The authors contacted pro-vided additional volume, atrophy or correlation information to enable
studies to be included in the meta-analyses.
Where studies provided separate atrophy rates for age based sub-
sets, the age based rates were included separately. For studies where a
normal sample had been split into sub-samples by category such as
APOE variant and the atrophy information was only available at the
sub-sample level, a single weighted atrophy rate was calculated from
the sub-sample information. Where studies provided separate atrophy
rates for consecutive time points, a single mean atrophy rate was
calculated.
Statistical analysis
R version 3.1.1 (R Core Team, 2014) was used for statistical analysis.
The Amelia II R package version 1.7.2 was used for multiple imputations
(Honaker et al., 2011) and meta-analyses were performed using the
Metafor version 1.9-4 R package (Viechtbauer, 2010).
Missing data
In a few instances (n = 3) where atrophy SDs were missing, it was
possible to impute them from other published information ( JPT and
Green, 2011). In other cases (total hippocampus n = 6, left/right hippo-
campi n = 3),missing SDswere estimatedby multiple imputation using
an expectation-maximisation (EM) bootstrappingmethod with 5 impu-
tations using Amelia II (Thiessen Philbrook et al., 2007).
Meta-analysis
A random-effects model using a restricted maximum likelihood esti-
mator (REML) was used for all meta-analyses. A random effects model
was chosen based on the assumption that included studies are hetero-
geneous because they sample populations with different characteristics
using a range of methodologies and therefore one cannot assume that
there is a single effect size (Borenstein et al., 2011). A random effects
meta-analysis estimates the mean of a distribution of effects ratherthan estimating a unique effect (Borenstein et al., 2011). We assessed
heterogeneity across studies with theQ statistic (with p b .10being sug-
gestive of signicant heterogeneity) and the I2 statistic (values of 25%,
50% and 75% were indicative of low, medium, and high heterogeneity).
Separate meta-analyses were performed for total, left and right hippo-
campal atrophy. Sensitivity analysis was performedto assessthe impact
of including SDs imputed with the multiple imputation procedure.
The impact of age on the observed atrophy rate was explored
through a meta-analysis stratied by age groups. The stratication pro-
cedureconsisted of groupingstudies such that it maximisedthe number
of age groups, containing at least 3 samples, where most of the partici-
pants from those samples would t within the age range of the group.
The distribution of samples in terms of mean age and SD was examined
to identify the number of age based groups that could be practically im-
plemented for total, left and right hippocampal atrophy. For each age
group, the mean and SD of the included samples were used to estimate
the proportion of participants that would be fall below, within and
above the group age range. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine
group boundaries that would optimise the proportion of the sample
participants included within the groups.
Meta-regression was used to investigate the inuence of the moder-
ators of sample type (population vs clinical), segmentation approach
(manual vs automated) and age using linear mixed-effects models
(Borenstein et al., 2011; Viechtbauer, 2010). A number of additional
non-linear meta-regression models using quadratic and cubic terms
were tested post hoc but they provided a poorer t than the linear
models.
Reporting bias
Studies that report signicant results are more likely to be published
than studies resulting in non-signicant outcomes (Song et al., 2010)
and this is known to bias theresults of meta-analytic reviews. It is there-
fore important to formally assess publication bias and interpret results
accordingly. Reporting bias was assessed by visual inspection of funnel
plots which are scatterplots where the effect size is plotted against the
standard error of the effect size. Asymmetry of the funnel plots may
be an indication of reporting bias. The trim and ll method (Duval and
Tweedie, 2000a,b) was used to estimate the number of studies that
may be missing from the meta-analysis and to estimate adjusted effect
sizes.
Results
The search identied 4410 titles, bibliography searches identied
another 11 titles and a previous review (Barnes et al., 2009) yielded
onetitle (Kaye et al., 2005). Of 119 retrieved studies, 58did not meet in-
clusion, exclusion or quality criteria; 14 were not longitudinal, 21 did
not measure hippocampal volume change, 10 had biased samples, 6
had b 20 participants, 3 had no age or gender, 3 had b 12 month follow
up, and 1 was an autopsy study. A further 30 studies were excluded
due to multiple reporting of the same data, 16 of which used samples
from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset.
Of 31 studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 16 related
to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia, 8 were ageing or
population studies, 3 related to schizophrenia, 2 to depression, 1 to
Huntington's disease and 1 to total life experience. Fig. 1 shows the
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process used for inclusion in the review. The reviewed studies are
summarised in Table 1. Additional information including imaging pa-
rameters and segmentation protocols are described in Supplementary
tables S1–S4.
Quality ratings of included studies met the following criteria: deni-
tion of exposure variable and outcome, prospective design, specication
of population characteristics, description of study period, description of
the sampling procedure, standardised and described data collection,
multivariate statistics described, and reproducibility. Ten studies hadmore than 100 participants across all groups. Dropout rates varied
with 16 studies reporting a dropout rate of less than 20%, 9 studies
reporting greater than 20%, 1 study did not include dropout informa-
tion, 4 studies selected participants that had two MRI scans from larger
prospective datasets and 1 study invited participants from existing
studies to have a follow-up scan.
Manual segmentation was used in 19 studies. The anatomical deni-
tions used in manually segmented studies were generally consistent in
including the dentate gyrus, hippocampus proper (CA1 through CA4),
subiculum, mbria and the alveus. All manually segmented studies in-
cluded thehead, thebody and the tail up to the crus of thefornix except
for Kaye et al. (2005) who only measured the hippocampus body and
Whitworth et al. (2005)who included some amygdala tissue in the seg-
mentation. Twelve studies used a range of different automated or semi-
automated segmentation approaches.The delineation of the hippocam
pus in most of the automated studies differed from the manually seg
mented studies by including the tail past the crus of the fornix and
excluding the mbria and alveus. A number of studies tested for gende
effects and two found increased atrophy in males; Cherbuin et a
(2012) found greater hippocampal atrophy and Driscoll et al. (2009
found greater age related temporal lobe atrophy.
Meta-analysis
Of the 31 studies reviewed, 28 were included in the meta-analysis
Two all-male studies (MacLullich et al., 2012; Whitworth et al., 2005
were excluded to avoid gender bias and Callisaya et al. (2013), with
an annualised atrophy rate of 9.98%, was identied as an outlier durin
meta-analysis and excluded. The remaining 28 studies covered 3422
participants of whom 1469 (44.65%) were male.
The 28 studies provided 35 samples with estimates for total hippo
campal atrophy. Visual inspection of the distribution of the samples
mean ages suggested that three age groups; young, young–old and
old–old, could be implemented. Sensitivity analysis was used to choos
the optimum break points (50 versus 55 years and 70 versus 75 years
between the age groups. The analysis yielded the following three ag
groups; 1) less than 55 years represented 92% of 413 participants in
12 samples; 55 years to less than 70 years represented 87% of 426 par
ticipants in 7 samples; and 70 years and over represented 78% of 2583
participants in 16 samples. With fewer studies measuring left and
right hippocampal atrophy, the distribution of sample mean ages sug
gested only two age groups. Sensitivity analysis was used to choos
the optimum break point (50 versus 55 years) between the groups
The analyses yielded two age groups;1) less than 55 years representin
88.0% of 225 participants in 4 samples and 2) 55 years and ove
representing 100% of 917 participants in 7 samples. Excluding the mul
tiple imputed samples did not signicantly alter the atrophy estimates
The results of the meta-analyses are shown in Table 2. Forest plots wit
age based subsets for total, left and right hippocampal atrophy are
shown in Figs. 2–4.
Signicant heterogeneity was found in all meta-analyses performe
with p b 0.0001for tests of homogeneity in effects. Theproportion of observed variance between studies (I2) that is real (i.e. not related to ran
dom error) was high in all but one of the age groups with I 2 rangin
from 68.75% to 99.99% and the proportion of heterogeneity tended to
be higher in older age groups. A mixed effects model using moderator
of age, segmentation technique and sample type indicated that age an
segmentation type were signicant moderators of annualised atroph
and sample type was not a signicant moderator. A second model lim
ited to the signicant moderators estimated that age and segmentatio
typeaccounted for 42.78% of the heterogeneity in total hippocampal at
rophy (Table 3). The test for residual heterogeneity was signican
Q(32) = 1976.57, p b 0.0001, indicating that other moderators ar
inuencing the atrophy rate. The impact of segmentation approach
was investigated post hoc using separate meta-regression models fo
manualand automatedstudies (Table 3, Models 3–4). Thedifferent predicted atrophyrates for manual and automated segmentation techniqu
by age are plotted in Fig. 5.
Reporting bias
The funnel plot for studies reporting on total hippocampal atroph
(Fig. 6) is reasonably symmetrical and no missing studies were identi
ed using the trim and ll method, suggesting the absence of publica
tion bias (Duval and Tweedie, 2000a,b). The large number of th
points falling outside the funnel in Fig. 6 islikely to be due to the signif
icant heterogeneity between studies. In the absence of heterogeneity
95% of the studies would be expected to fall within the funnel area
The funnel plots for studies reporting left and right hippocampal atro
phy (Figs. 7–
8) were less symmetrical and the trim and ll method
Fig. 1. Screening and selection process for studies included in the meta-analysis.
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Table 1
Studies included in the review.
Study Group n Male % Age mean
(SD)
Time
(SD)
Segmentation Atrophy % per year
Total Left Right
Barnes et al. (2008) NC 20 50 69 (7) 1 (01) Manual 0.28 (0.93) 0.02 (1.25) 0.52 (1.37)
Callisaya et al. (2013) Population 225 56.4 71.4 (6.8) 2.55 (0.41) Manual 9.86 (4.17)a
Cherbuin et al. (2012) Population 249 57 62.6 (1.4) 4 (0.21) Manual 2.03 (0.033) 2.56 (0.034)a 1.46 (0.036)a
Crivello et al. (2010) Population 1186 36.7 72.3 (3.9) 4 (−) Automated 1.204 (2.5402)b
den Heijer et al. (2010) Population 244 49 73.5 (7.9) 3.4 (0.3) Automated 0.51 (0.43) 0.52 (0.60) 0.51 (0.88)
Driscoll et al. (2009) Population 120 60.8 70.6 (6.1) 6.02 (2.91) Automated 0.32 (0.049)a
Du et al. (2004) CN 25 4 4 76 (7.8) 2 (0.7) Automated 0.8 (1.7) 1 (2.6) 0.6 (2.5)
Frodl et al. (2008) NC 30 36.7 43.6 (13.1) 3 (0) Manual −0.20c (1.65) −0.31 (2.15) −0.09 (2.36)
Jack et al. (1998) NC 24 33.3 81.0 (3.8) 1.96 (0.75) Manual 1.55 (1.38)
Jack et al. (2004)d CN-stable 40 42.5 79 (−) 4.3 (−) (2.5–5.2)e Manual 1.4 (0.7)f
Kaye et al. (2005) CN 88 47.7 83.0 (7.0) 2.04 (1.42) Manual 2.2 (6.0)
Koolschijn et al. (2010) NC 113 67.3 35.4 (12.3) 4.94 (0.32) Manual 0.8043 (.0267)a 0.8028 (.0285)a 0.8054 (.0285)a
Liu et al. (2003) 14–34 44 59.1 24.5 (6.6) 3.57 (0.13) Manual 0.11 ( 3. 34)
35 to 54 37 45.9 44.5 (5.7) 3.53 (0.08) 0 ( 2. 31)
Over 54 9 66.7 67.9 (6.4) 3.53 (0.09) 0.64 ( 2.78)
MacLullich et al. (2012) Healthy 41 100 67.3 (1.3) 6 (−) Manual −0.16 (−) −0.27 (1.94)g −0.04 (1.90)g
Majid et al. (2011) NC 22 31.8 40.1 (12.2) 1 (0.1) Automated 0.02 (0.72)
Mungas et al. (2005) Normal 58 46.6 74.1 (6.7) 3.4 (1.4) Automated 1.1 (1.4)
Raz et al. (2005) Young b50 32 – 39.4 (8.3) 5.27 (0.3) Manual 0.48 (0.83)a
Old 50+ 40 – 63.1(7.0) 1.04 (0.797)a
Raz et al. 2010 Healthy 30 46.7 63.1 (7.0) 2.61 Manual 2.18 ( 2.46 )
Ridha et al. (2006) Controls 25 36 46.5 (10.2) 1.5 (0.8) Manual 0.31 (1.25)
Samieri et al. (2012) Population 281 42.3 72.3 (3.8) 4 (−) Automated 0.9455 (0.6841)a 1.0 (0.8) 0.9 (0.8)Scahill et al. (2003) 30–39 years 8 50 36.1 (2.5) 1.58 (1.19) Manual 0.75 (1.25)
40–49 years 10 50 45.6 (2.9) 1.83 (0.87) 0.5 (0.375)
50–59 years 10 50 53.9 (3.5) 1.91 (1.11) 1.05 (0.475)
60–69 years 6 50 62.7 (2.3) 2.07 (1.21) 0.875 (0.5875)
70–84 years 5 25 76.8 (5.5) 0.98 (0.42) 1.9375 (1.7375)
Schott et al. (2003) Controls 20 50 45.8 (6.8) 1.41 (0.8) Manual −0.12c (1.83) −0 .45 ( 1.63 ) 0 .2 1 ( 3.00 )
Schott et al. (2010) Controls 199 53.3 76 (5.1) 1 (−) Automated 1.01 (1.72)
Steffens et al. (2011) Healthy 72 19.4 69.4 (6.2) 2 (−) Automated −0.84 (5.9)h,a −1.07 (7.19)h −0.63 (6.28)h
Stoub et al. (2010) NCI-S 26 19.2 78 (6) 5 Manual 1.4188 (0.2444)a
Valenzuela et al. (2008) Healthy 37 43.2 70.3 (5.8) 3 (−) Manual 1.98 (3.92)b
Wang et al. (2003) CN 26 46.2 73 (7) 2.2 (−) 1.0–2.6e Automated 2.34 (1.853) 1.82 ( 2.04) 2.50 ( 2.03)
Wang et al. (2008) NC 62 54.8 36.2 (14.5) 2.24 (5.8) Automated 0.105c (1.84) 0.26 ( 2.15) −0.03 ( 2.50)
Wang et al. (2009) NC 20 55 75.1 (3.7) 1.88 (−) 0.89–2.9e Manual 1.0 (0.07)
Whitwell et al. (2012)i Po pulation 204 54.4 78.4 (5.0)a 1.25 (−) Automated 0.50 (2.22)a
Whitworth et al. (2005) NC 20 100 31.5 (4.9) j 3.7 (1.63) Manual 1.25 (−) 1.95 (3.12) 0.53 (3.21)
NC = normal controls; CN = cognitively normal; CN-stable = CN that does not progress to MCI or AD; NCI-S = no cognitive impairment at baseline, stable.
Multiply imputed SDs are shown in italics.a Personal communication with author.b Values pooled from subsets.c Calculated from left and right atrophy.d CN split into subsets of stable & converters — only stable subset included in analysis.e Median plus range.f Source Barnes et al. (2009).g SD imputed using p-value.h Atrophy calculated from volume change.i Included MCSA sample only. j Age at follow-up.
Table 2
Meta-analysis estimates of total, left and right hippocampal atrophy rates with age based subsets.
Description k n Age Atrophy %/yr s.e. 95% CI Qp T2 T I2
Total hippocampus 35 3422 68.59 0.85 0.11 0.63 1.07 b .0001 0.36 0.6 99.96
Young: b55 years 12 413 39.53 0.38 0.12 0.14 0.62 b .0001 0.12 0.34 85.45
Old: 55+ years 23 3009 72.58 1.12 0.13 0.86 1.38 b .0001 0.31 0.56 99.92
55 to b70 years 7 426 64.24 0.98 0.37 0.27 1.70 b .0001 0.76 0.87 96.60
70+ years 16 2583 73.95 1.12 0.13 0.86 1.38 b .0001 0.22 0.47 98.75
Left hippocampus 11 1142 64.34 0.64 0.30 0.04 1.23 b.0001 0.89 0.94 99.99
b55 years 4 225 40.06 0.16 0.31 −0.45 0.76 b.0001 0.30 0.55 84.45
N55 years 7 917 70.29 0.94 0.41 0.14 1.75 b.0001 1.05 1.02 99.75
Right hippocampus 11 1142 64.34 0.70 0.23 0.25 1.15 b.0001 0.45 0.67 99.99
b55 years 4 225 40.06 0.33 0.28 −0.21 0.87 b.0001 0.19 0.43 68.75
N55 years 7 917 70.29 0.92 0.31 0.31 1.52 b.0001 0.55 0.74 99.30
k = numberof samplesor sub-samplesincluded in analysis; s.e.= standard error; Qp = p-valuefor thesignicance testof theQ statistic;T2 = heterogeneity = estimated variance of true
effects; T = estimated standard deviation of true effects; I2
= proportion of observed variance (heterogeneity) that is real.
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estimated onemissing study for theleft hippocampus andthree missing
for the right hippocampus, inclusion of the missing studies produced
adjusted estimates for left hippocampal atrophy of 0.74% per year
(95% CI 0.15, 1.33) and right hippocampal atrophy of 0.96% per year
(95% CI 0.50, 1.42). The adjusted estimates should be treated with cau-
tion for two reasons. Firstly theestimated missing studies hadvery large
effect sizes and are therefore unlikely to result from reporting bias, and
secondly, the estimates produced by the trim andll method have been
shown to be unreliable in the presence of signicant heterogeneity asobserved in the present results (Peters et al., 2007; Terrin et al., 2003).
Discussion
The aim of this review was to estimate hippocampal atrophy rate
across the adult lifespan in cognitively normal individuals and to inves
tigate theimpactof age, sample type andsegmentation approach on ob
served atrophy rates.
Overall, the estimated rate of total hippocampal atrophy across al
studies of 0.85% per year was consistent with previous longitudina
ndings and higher than the atrophy rates of 0.28–0.35% per year (Raet al., 2005; Raz et al., 2004b; Scahill et al., 2003) reported in cross
Fig. 2. Random effects model of total hippocampal atrophy with age based subsets. Studies are ordered by mean age.
Fig. 3. Random effects model of left hippocampal atrophy with age based subsets. Studies are ordered by mean age.
36M.A. Fraser et al. / NeuroImage 112 (2015) 364– 374
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sectional studies. By bringing together the results for control partici-
pants in a range of research domains we were able to show that there
isa small yet signicant rate of atrophy from young adulthoodto middle
age of 0.38% per year. In contrast, individual studies that have measured
hippocampal change in younger age groups have provided equivocal
evidence of atrophy with many nding non-signicant hippocampal
volume changes, likely due to insuf cient power to detect small effects.
Hippocampal atrophy rates increase with age (Du et al., 2006) and
this meta-analysis further demonstrates that the most signicant atro-
phy occurs from midlife onwards. The hippocampal atrophy rate in-creased to 0.98% per year for studies with a mean age of 55 to less
than 70 years.The estimate from this transition group was theleast pre-
cise estimate dueto the smaller number of studies included. The rate of
atrophy further increasedto 1.12% peryear in the 70 years andolder age
group. While theestimates forthe older agegroupswere lower than the
rate of 1.41% per year estimated in a previous review, the difference was
not signicant (Barnes et al., 2009). The pattern of atrophy change with
age is consistentwith previous cross-sectional and longitudinal ndings
reporting a non-linear trajectory in hippocampal ageing (Fjell et al.,
2013; Raz et al., 2010; Schuff et al., 2012), but with few samples cover-
ing middle age, it was not possible to model the critical pointthat is be-
lieved to occur after the age of 50 years (Fjell et al., 2013). More
longitudinal research covering this critical time should be undertaken.
Laterality effects
Theestimated atrophy rates for the left and right hippocampus were
consistent with total hippocampal atrophy rates. There was little evi-
dence of laterality differences in the atrophy estimates produced by
the meta-analysis. This nding is of particular interest because a
Fig. 4. Random effects model of right hippocampal atrophy with age based subsets. Studies are ordered by mean age.
Table 3
Mixed effects models of hippocampal atrophy rates. Model 1: age, segmentation technique and sample type; Model 2: age and segmentation technique; Model 3: age effect on studies
using manual segmentation; Model 4: age effect on studies using automated segmentation.
k Coef s.e. z p 95% CI τ r2
Model 1 35
Intercept −
0.5720 0.3699 −
1.5466 0.1220 −
1.2970 0.1529 0.4558 41.84Age 0.0256 0.0061 4.2053 b0.0001 0.0136 0.0375
Segmentation −0.5222 0.2075 −2.5165 0.0119 −0.9289 −0.1155
Sample type 0.1878 0.2540 0.7394 0.4597 −0.3100 0.6857
Model 2 35
Intercept −0.6026 0.365 −1.6508 0.0988 −1.318 0.1129 0.4521 42.78
Age 0.0263 0.006 4.414 b .0001 0.0146 0.0379
Segmentation −0.4656 0.1917 −2.429 0.0151 −0.8413 −0.0899
Model 3 23
Intercept −0.7237 0.4368 −1.6567 0.0976 −1.5798 0.1325 0.4542 45.26
Age 0.0284 0.0072 3.9188 b .0001 0.0142 0.0425
Model 4 12
Intercept −0.7727 0.7722 −1.0006 0.3170 −2.2862 0.7408 0.4827 29.98
Age 0.0219 0.0112 1.9651 0.0494 0.0001 0.0438
k = number of samples or sub-samples included in analysis; s.e. = standard error; τ = standard deviation of true effects; r2 = proportion of observed dispersion accounted for by the
model.
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number of studies have suggested earlier and faster atrophy in the left
hippocampus. Consequently if this effect is not present in generally
healthy individuals it may be more indicative of developing neurode-
generative pathology which has been reported to be asymmetrical
(Cherbuin et al., 2010; Thompson et al., 2003).
Moderators & heterogeneity
There was considerable heterogeneity between studies and the
moderators of age and segmentation technique accounted for just
under half of the heterogeneity. Unsurprisingly, age had the largest ef
fect, accounting for most of the explained heterogeneity. Given tha
many studies had wide age ranges, exceeding 25 years in some cases
it is possible that age may have a greater moderating effect than quan
tied by the meta-regression. Another salient feature of this meta
analysis is that heterogeneity between studies was higher in studie
with a mean age greater than 55 years. This is probably due to chroni
disease and non-clinical brain changes which become more prevalen
in ageing. However, more targeted research is required to understan
the factors driving increased variability in older samples.
The other signicant moderator of heterogeneity identied was th
segmentation technique used to measure hippocampal volume. Th
meta-regression suggested that automated segmentation results i
lower atrophy rate estimates. It is possible that automated approachemay include some non-hippocampaltissue that has a lower rate of atro
phy than hippocampal tissue (Wenger et al., 2014). Indeed, Cherbui
et al. (2009) found that the hippocampal segmentation implemente
in Freesurfer produced signicantly larger volumes compared t
Fig. 5. Meta-regression of atrophy rate and mean age. The size of circles is proportional to
the weight given to the study. Larger studies and more precise studies are given more
weight in the meta-analysis. Magenta circles represent studies using manual segmenta-
tion and blue circles represent studies using automated segmentation. The magenta line
is the predicted mean atrophy rate change with age with manual segmentation
(Model 3) and the blue line represents the predicted mean atrophy rate with age for au-
tomated segmentation (Model 4).
Fig. 6. Funnel plot of total hippocampal atrophy using trim and ll method. Filled circles
represent studies included in the meta-analysis. Open circles represent possible missing
studies.
Fig. 7. Funnel plot of left hippocampal atrophy using trim and ll method. Filled circle
represent studies included in the meta-analysis. Open circles represent possible missin
studies.
Fig. 8. Funnel plot of right hippocampal atrophy using trim and ll method. Filled circle
represent studies included in the meta-analysis. Open circles represent possible missin
studies.
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manual segmentation of the same images. This explanation would also
be consistentwith ndings by Mulder et al., (2014)indicating that man-
ual segmentation produced higher atrophy rates than Freesurfer
(Reuter et al., 2012) or FIRST (Patenaude et al., 2011). Differential atro-
phy rates between the hippocampal head and tail could also contribute
to thedifferent atrophy rates between manually segmentedstudies (ex-
cluding thetail) and the studies using automated segmentation(includ-
ingthe tail) consistent with the Wang et al. (2003)ndings that atrophy
was mostly con
ned to the head of the hippocampus and subiculum innon-demented controls. One possible implication of these results is that
specic atrophy benchmarks may be required for segmentation tech-
niques relying on substantially different methods, protocols or
landmarks.
Thehypothesis that population studiesproduce higheratrophy rates
due to less restrictive exclusion criteria was not supported. This may be
because the exclusion criteria for the population samples were similar
to the other studies in excluding participants with neurological and se-
vere chronic conditions.
Reporting bias
Reporting bias was not expected given that this review utilised sam-
ples where the decision to publish or not publish was unlikely to be in
u-enced by the atrophy rate of control groups. There was no evidence of
reporting bias for total hippocampal atrophy. However, there wasan indi-
cation of missing studies reporting left and right hippocampal atrophy. If
these missing studies had non-signicant effect sizes, it may be an indica-
tion of reporting bias. However, in this case all three missing studies had
signicant effect sizes. While the adjusted estimates for left and right at-
rophy, after inclusion of the estimated missing studies, did not represent
a signicant change, they didmovethe estimates closer to that of the total
hippocampal atrophy.
Dropouts
In longitudinal studies carriedout over many yearsthere is likely to be
a high dropout rate, especially when participants are over 60 years old.Since drop out tends to be highest in thefrail and sick, it could bias the re-
sults of studies examined. Most of the studies reported the characteristics
of dropouts in comparison to those that didnot drop out. In older cohorts,
the dropouts tended to be older and less healthy than the participants
who were not lost to follow-up, consequently the atrophy rates in the
older cohorts may be understated.
Gender
Hippocampal atrophy was not separately measured in males and fe-
males in any of the studies. Therefore it was not possible to perform any
gender based meta-analyses. However, a number of studies controlled
or testedforgendereffects, with onestudy reporting greater hippocampal
atrophyrates in males while a secondreported higher temporal lobe atro-phy in males(Cherbuin et al., 2012; Driscoll et al., 2009). In addition, one
of the male-only studies, Whitworth et al. (2005), found annualised atro-
phy of 1.25% per year in young men, which is somewhat higher than the
meta-analysis estimate, but in line with the limited information from the
few studies investigating gender effects in hippocampal atrophy. Signi-
cant negative correlations have been found between hippocampal vol-
ume and age in men, but not in women, from around 20 to 46 years of
age (Pruessner et al., 2001; Raz et al., 2004a). Eberling et al. (2003) sug-
gested that oestrogen may protect against age related hippocampal atro-
phy. Given thesmall sample sizes of many MRI studies it is not surprising
thatfew studies measure hippocampal atrophyseparatelyin each gender.
The absence of studies that investigate gender effects represent a poten-
tial gap in the current research literature and needs to be investigated in
detail.
Limitations of the study
This review took a novel approach of utilising control samples from a
range of research areas including schizophrenia, AD and ageing to enable
the analysis of studies covering the entire adult life span. The potential
limitations of this approach are fourfold. Firstly, combining samples
from different research domains mayhave ledto increasedheterogeneity.
Secondly, in some studies the controlsamples were not as thoroughly de-
scribed as the observational treatment samples and this could have re-duced the effectiveness of the screening process. Thirdly, the wide age
ranges of many studies limited the number of age groups that could be
used in the meta-analysis and this limited precision of the estimates.
More studies with narrow age ranges are required to enable greater pre-
cision in estimates of age effects. Finally, it is possible that preclinical neu-
rodegenerative processes have contributed to the atrophy rates reported
in this study for the older age groups.
Conclusions
To our knowledge this is the rst meta-analysis of hippocampal atro-
phy, investigated in studies employing a longitudinal design, across the
adult lifespan. Hippocampal volumes remain relatively stable with low
levels of atrophy up to the middle of adulthood from which time
atrophy progressively increases as age increases. The heterogeneity be-
tween studies also increases in studies surveying older individuals.
More targeted research is required to understand the factors that drive
this variability. Finally, manual segmentation studies produced higher at-
rophy estimates compared to automated and semi-automated studies. It
is unclear whether the difference relates to the segmentation technique
or the hippocampal boundaries used. The implication of this nding is
that separate benchmarks may need to be used when assessing ndings
based on differing segmentation approaches.
Acknowledgments
This study was funded by Australian Research Council project grant
number 120101705. The funding sources were not involved in the
design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data; or in the writingof the report or the decision to submit.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at http://dx.
doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2015.03.035.
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