CLIMATE CHANGE [Mitigation and Adaptation] Through Economic Prespectives In Korea-PRC-Japan DEANISSA RATIH MOHD. ABI RAFDI 21040110120060 21040111130028 MOH. MIQDAM SHIDQI ROLAND 21040110120045 21040111130038
A Summary of Economics of Climate Change in East Asia
May 28, 2015
The importance of the East Asian region in terms of addressing the impact of climate change has significant consequences that cross regional boundaries and affect the world. East Asia is a uniquely important region for climate change. As an export-oriented industrial powerhouse, the region accounts for roughly 30% of the world’s total energy-related emissions. This suggests that initiatives to mitigate climate change must include the region. From a country perspective, the region is vulnerable to the impact of climate change.
.
Several important messages emerge from the study.
- First, the cost of climate change adaptation is outweighed by the cost of inaction.
- Second, there are different policy actions that each country could undertake. These include, country-specific climate-proofing of various types of infrastructure, addressing the current adaptation deficit to weather risk (especially in the PRC), and avoiding large investments in greenhouse gas-intensive power plants in the PRC and Mongolia.
- Third, adaptation and mitigation policies should not be examined in isolation. Climate change strategies must consider the combined effects of mitigation and planned adaptation, and the resulting damage costs of climate change under the various adaptation policies.
- Fourth, climate change not only brings challenges to East Asia, but also opportunities. A significant portion of the mitigation potential in the region, including energy efficiency measures, generates a positive economic return without consideration of climate change.
- Fifth, regional cooperation, as this study shows, pays dividends. The overall cost of reducing emissions could be decreased by 25% or more if the countries in the region pool their emissions targets and create a regional carbon market.
.
Several important messages emerge from the study.
- First, the cost of climate change adaptation is outweighed by the cost of inaction.
- Second, there are different policy actions that each country could undertake. These include, country-specific climate-proofing of various types of infrastructure, addressing the current adaptation deficit to weather risk (especially in the PRC), and avoiding large investments in greenhouse gas-intensive power plants in the PRC and Mongolia.
- Third, adaptation and mitigation policies should not be examined in isolation. Climate change strategies must consider the combined effects of mitigation and planned adaptation, and the resulting damage costs of climate change under the various adaptation policies.
- Fourth, climate change not only brings challenges to East Asia, but also opportunities. A significant portion of the mitigation potential in the region, including energy efficiency measures, generates a positive economic return without consideration of climate change.
- Fifth, regional cooperation, as this study shows, pays dividends. The overall cost of reducing emissions could be decreased by 25% or more if the countries in the region pool their emissions targets and create a regional carbon market.
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CLIMATE CHANGE [Mitigation and Adaptation]
Through Economic Prespectives
In Korea-PRC-Japan
DEANISSA RATIHMOHD. ABI RAFDI
2104011012006021040111130028
MOH. MIQDAM SHIDQIROLAND
2104011012004521040111130038
OUTLINE• ADAPTATION : INFRASTRUCTURE• ADAPTATION : COASTAL AREA• ADAPTATION : AGRICULTURAL SECTOR•MITIGATION• GOVERNMENT INNITIATIVES
Economics of Climate Change in East Asia: Chapter ADAPTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
Total Cost of Climate-proofing (ex-ante adaptation)All infrastructure during 2011-2050
Minimum Maximum0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
$8 billion
$63 billion
$3 billion
$44 billion
$ 50 million $560 million
East Asia PRC Mongolia
2.30%
97.70%
Mongolia2.20%
97.80%
Japan0.60%
99.40%
PRCRelative Cost of Adaptation
*the cost vary greatly across climate
scenarios
*worst climate change scenario in Mongolia is up to 8.5% of
baseline expenditure
CLIMATE PROOFING ADAPTATI
ON
It is economic to climate proof roads but the benefits of ex-ante adaptation
for other categories of
infrastructure DO NOT OUTWEIGH the costs incurred.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
AverageScenario
8%
Worst CaseScenario
12%
*Roads have the highest relative cost of climate proofing
-CHINA-
CLIMATE PROOFING ADAPTATIONAdaptation against
cyclones
9.3% Japan
Affected
unaffected
3.8% Korea
Affectedunaffected
*proportion of cyclones-affected-population, more than 1% of local GDP
“ Dampak (biaya) perubahan iklim yang terjadi jauh lebih besar dibanding dengan biaya untuk
meningkatkan dan mangadopsi desain standar yang
tahan bencana”JAPAN: Biaya mengadopsi desain
standar untuk perlindungan terhadap kemungkinan bencana
setiap 100 tahun sekali hanya memerlukan 2.5 milyar US dollar per
tahun (selama periode 2050)
CHINA: Biaya menangani kerusakan akibat topan
(cyclones) mencapai 21 milyar dollar US per tahun dan biaya
tambahan untuk adaptasi terhadap perubahan iklim
sebesar 4 milyar dollar US per tahun .
• AVERAGE SCENARIO
CLIMATE PROOFING ADAPTATION
Adaptation against (short-term)
Floodingin China
• WORST SCENARIO
South
east
R
egio
nEast
ern
R
egio
nO
vera
ll
The average losses due to CC by 2050 is Modest
2% of the population may suffer an increase in economic losses from short term flooding
around 0.5% of local GDP
The risks associated with cumulative flooding in the PRC
(China), especially in the Yangtze River Basin, may
increase substantially under small number of climate scenarios
The impact of Climate Change
would be very small if a consistent level of protection
against 1-in-50-years floods
were adopted
8% of the population may suffer an increase in economic losses from short term flooding
around 0.5% of local GDP
More than 80% of the
population may suffer an increase in economic losses
from cumulative flooding more than 1% of local GDPMost at risk province –– Anhui,
Henan, Hubei and Hunan
More than 80% of the
population may suffer an increase in economic losses
from cumulative flooding more than 1% of local GDP
FLOOD PROOFING STANDARD DESIGNSAMPLE
Economics of Climate Change in East Asia: Chapter ADAPTATION
COASTAL AREA
During 2010-2050(without adaptation)
*Kondisi ini penyebab utamanya adalah
perubahan iklim, tetapi terdapat pula pengaruh
faktor lain seperti abrasi dan
erosi
• China
• Japan
• Korea
±27 km2/tahun (hilang – terendam)
19-22% wilayah pesisir hilang
500ribu penduduk bermigrasi
86 milyar dollar US –– kerugian ekonomi akibat migrasi
±3.3 km2/tahun (hilang terkena erosi)
28% wilayah pesisir hilang
54ribu penduduk bermigrasi
± 7 milyar dollar US –– kerugian ekonomi akibat migrasi
19-22% wilayah pesisir hilang
• Biaya Adaptasi Pesisir
5
41• Adaptasi wil. pesisir
(termasuk sea nourishment dan sea
dikes) mengurai kerugian akibat sea-
level rise hingga 99%
32
• Skenario terburuk sea-level rise
dengan tornado hanya merugikan $247 juta/tahun
Biaya adaptasi pesisir (medium scenario)
$4.1 milyar. PRC sebesar $2.1 milyar
dan Japan sebesar $1.2 milyar (per
tahun).
Adaptasi wil. Pesisir didominasi pembuatan sea dikes yg biaya
perawatan meningkat tiap tahun
Upgrading pelabuhan di Asia Timur sekitar $400
juta/tahun (dengan 77% pelabuhan di PRC)
• Biaya tambahan utk adaptasi perubahan iklim
di Asia Timur adalah $2.7 milyar untuk 2010-2050.
• Jumlah ini berada di bawah perkiraan rata-rata
(medium scenario) sekitar $1.2 milyar - $6.8
milyar/tahun
Tanpa mempertimbangkan
Perubahan Iklim, biaya adaptasi wilayah pesisir
dari abrasi hanya sekitar $1 milyar /tahun
ADAPTASI WILAYAH PESISIR TERHADAP PERUBAHAN IKLIM MERUPAKAN INVESTASI YANG
SANGAT BAIK DAN SANGAT EFEKTIF
The ratio of the damage avoided by adaptation to climate change to the incremental cost of adaptation is 5.0 for the
medium scenario and at least 4.6 over all scenarios
Economics of Climate Change in East Asia: Chapter ADAPTATION
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Hasil Panen2010-2050
DRIER SCENARIO
2010
2050Japan
KoreaPRC
JapanKoreaPRC
–10%
Pada skenario terburuk, PRC akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 10%. Korea dan Japan justru mengalami kenaikan hasil panen yang diperoleh.
PRC: Rata-rata perubahan terhadap hasil panen padi berkisar antara 5.6% hingga 4.3% dengan mempertimbangkan skenario-skenario yg ada
PRC: Pada skenario tanpa perubahan iklim (no-climate-change scenario), produksi hasil panen total diproyeksikan berkurang 1%-4% pada 2050.
Crops Price & Wheat Production2050 (prediction)
Mongolia -PRC -
Harga hasil panen
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
naik 6%
naik 38%
MongoliaPRC
Wheat Produc-tion
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-24%
-8%
Drier
*in PRC
Wheat/gandum adalah jenis hasil panen yang terkena dampak paling parah oleh Perubahan Iklim.Mongolia adalah negara dengan bahan makanan pokok berupa gandum. Perubahan Iklim berdampak pada berkurangnya hasil panen wheat/gandum secara signifikan, sehingga harga bahan makanan pokok (gandum) di negara tersebut diprediksi meningkat tajam pada tahun 2050.Diperkirakan akan terjadi pengurangan konsumsi kalori di tahun 2050 rata-rata hampir 200 kalori/hari (sekitar 8% dari keseluruhan konsumsi Mongolia)
BIAYA ADAPTASI SEKTOR PERTANIAN DIPENGARUHI OLEH PERTUMBUHAN DAN KEMAJUAN TEKNOLOGI DI
BIDANG PERTANIAN The cost of adaptation in 2050 for East Asia under the worst
climate scenario varies from $10 billion to $33 billion depending upon the growth in agricultural yields due to technical progress. The highest cost would be incurred if
there was no technical progress, whereas a continuation of historical trends of yield growth would reduce the cost of
adaptation by nearly 70%.
Economics of Climate Change in East Asia: Chapter MITIGATION
ECONOMIC PRESPECTIVES
Potensi Pengurangan Emisi
PRC – ASIA TIMUR
Potensi pengu-rangan emisi di
Asia Timur
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
5.3 gtCO2E
9.7 gtCO2E
20202030
Potensi pengu-rangan emisi di
PRC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4.7
8.8
20202030
8.73
0.970000000000001
Potensi Pengurangan Emisi di Asia Timur 2030
PRCOthers
Penundaan 5 tahun dalam penerapan opsi pengurangan di sektor tenaga listrik di RRC mengurangi potensi pengurangan hingga 15 % pada 2030 . Ini " lock-in " efek terjadi karena pembangunan selama periode ini dari pembangkit listrik
menggunakan teknologi yang kurang efisien dan memiliki emisi yang lebih tinggi membatasi pengurangan masa depan selama kehidupan mereka tanaman.
Upaya mitigasi di RRC akan mengurangi ketergantungan pada impor batubara dan minyak tetapi akan meningkatkan ketergantungan pada impor gas . Dengan
perbandingan dengan skenario bisnis seperti biasa - bisnis , abatement dengan plafon sebesar $ 100 per tCO2e akan meningkatkan porsi gas dalam konsumsi
energi primer pada tahun 2030 dari 2% menjadi 25 % diimbangi oleh penurunan pangsa batubara dari 57 % menjadi 43 % dan minyak dari 18% menjadi 10 % .
Sebuah pasar karbon daerah akan biaya- efektif di Asia Timur . RRC memiliki banyak opsi pengurangan lebih murah daripada Jepang atau Korea Selatan . Potensi pengurangan di RRC dengan biaya antara $ 0 dan $ 100 per tCO2e dengan
tingkat diskon yang tinggi adalah sekitar 19 kali potensi setara untuk Jepang dan Republik Korea dikombinasikan pada tahun 2030 , sehingga ruang lingkup untuk
perdagangan efisien besar .
Mitigation has large co-benefits in the PRC, particularly in the form of reduced health costs
from air pollution.
Economics of Climate Change in East Asia: Chapter Governmental Innitiatives
GOVERNMENT INNITIATIVES
Peningkatan kesadaran untuk rumah tangga dan menyediakan mereka dengan informasi tentang bagaimana mengembangkan gaya hidup rendah karbon
Mengadopsi ramah lingkungan pangan Mengurangi konsumsi energi dan air
THE LOW–CARBON GREEN LIFESTYLE ACTION PLAN (SINCE
August 2009)AIM: Reduce 10% of lifestyle-related greenhouse gas emissions and help
create a low–carbon lifestyle.
GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT: individu warga dan kelompok sipil didorong untuk melakukan tindakan rendah karbon melalui insentif seperti poin
karbon, dengan event sebagai berikut:
Kontes Mengemudi Ramah Lingkungan (Eco-Friendly Driving Contest)
Mendorong Penggunaan Angkutan Umum
Mengkampanyekan Kebiasaan Berjalan untuk mempromosikan konsep transportasi ramah lingkungan (Promote concept of Eco-Friendly transportation)
SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENTas supporting system of green lifestyle
program in Korea
50.000 "GREEN
LEADERS" akan dilatih pada tahun
2015
Mendorong Penciptaan GREEN
CAMPUS dan
GREEN SCHOOL
2008
OktoberGREEN START NATIONAL
NETWORK dibentuk untuk mempromosikan green growth melalui partisipasi
masyarakat
2010
JuniAROUND 37 GROUPS HAS
JOINED (including the Korean Chamber of Commerce
and Industry; Presidential Commission on Sustainable Development; and Korea Federation of Teacher Associations)
The Green Start movement also encompasses the “WE Green” (or
Women’s Green) movement and the “Green Energy Family” movement
This Presentation is made of several
chapters taken from Economics of Climate Change in
East AsiaChapter 2: The Economics of
Adaptation in the Infrastructure Sector Chapter 3: The Economics
of Adaptation in the Coastal SectorChapter 4: The Economics of
Adaptation in the Agriculture SectorChapter 6: Greenhouse Gas
Projections and the Costs of Sector-Specific
Mitigation Options Chapter 8: Climate Policy in East Asia
END OF THE PRESENTATION
TERIMAKASIH
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