A STUDY ON ANALYSIS OF EQUITY SHARE PRICE BEHAVIOR OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Name : NARENDRA SINGH

Roll No.0141PG039

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

A STUDY ON ANALYSIS OF EQUITY SHARE PRICE BEHAVIOR OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES

RESEARCH TITLE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

OBJECTIVE• To analyze the share price behavior of the selected

industries.• To predict the day to day Fluctuations in the stock

market using Technical Analysis• To study the price movements in the stock exchange • To study the current trend and strength of the trend of

selected industry• To recapitulate the key findings and offer suggestions to

investors.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Tremendous growth in Indian capital market The Entry of Foreign Institutional investors (primary and

secondary markets for the securities)  Investments in developing countries have increased

remarkably The liberalization policy of the government of India has

now started fielding results The Economy of the country is mainly based on the

development of the corporate sectors

INTRODUCTION

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

 Inflation Deflation Interest Rates Exchange Rates

FACTORS AFFECTED FOR THE SHARE PRICES

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

The data is obtained by the national stock exchange website (www.nscindia.com). For the purpose of this study the daily closing prices of 10 companies included in National stock exchange were taken and their price movement are computed and studied

The sectors selected are as follows:

1.  Automobile

2. Banking

3. IT

4. Oil Exploration and Refinery 

5. Tele communication

SECONDARY RESEARCH

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

1. Automobile Tata Motors Ltd.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.

2. Banking

State Bank of India

ICICI Bank Ltd.

3. IT

Infosys Technology Ltd.

TATA Consultancy Services Ltd.

SECONDARY RESEARCH

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

4. Oil Exploration and Refinery 

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

Reliance Petroleum Ltd.

5. Tele communication

 Bharati Airtel Ltd

Reliance Communications Ltd.

SECONDARY RESEARCH

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close4/1/2015 544.177 560.997 542.001 558.573 470300 558.573

3/31/2015 534.679 553.478 532.304 544.128 326300 544.1283/30/2015 533.294 537.251 526.17 534.234 601700 534.2343/27/2015 523.301 532.304 513.06 530.078 324700 530.0783/26/2015 529.336 532.898 517.018 520.58 372900 520.583/25/2015 531.315 539.626 527.852 535.47 453800 535.473/24/2015 545.167 546.552 522.905 527.258 314100 527.2583/23/2015 542.347 551.499 542.05 545.068 187000 545.0683/20/2015 543.287 544.177 535.273 541.803 238100 541.8033/19/2015 559.018 562.679 545.167 547.442 201200 547.4423/18/2015 565.944 565.944 550.707 554.17 306300 554.173/17/2015 559.018 572.376 556.545 565.499 364300 565.4993/16/2015 552.142 559.662 549.322 551.895 127600 551.8953/13/2015 560.008 560.107 548.63 551.153 186400 551.1533/12/2015 549.124 560.503 548.927 558.079 232100 558.0793/11/2015 556.05 559.018 542.693 545.266 270700 545.2663/10/2015 561.789 566.39 553.082 554.22 279600 554.22

3/9/2015 563.966 566.934 556.495 558.276 280700 558.2763/6/2015 564.609 564.609 564.609 564.609 0 564.6093/5/2015 569.061 571.436 562.185 564.609 253800 564.6093/4/2015 577.718 585.733 564.955 567.775 527700 567.7753/3/2015 577.273 577.273 566.439 568.517 257300 568.5173/2/2015 591.669 594.143 567.626 577.966 504900 577.966

TATA MOTORS LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

TATA MOTORS LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close4/1/2015 266.65 274.65 263.15 273.45 12383500 273.45

3/31/2015 268.9 271.35 266 267.05 19482600 267.053/30/2015 265.1 269.35 263.15 267.9 12303800 267.93/27/2015 259.85 264.95 256 263.6 19423100 263.63/26/2015 264.5 265.9 255.2 256.65 22253300 256.653/25/2015 271.9 272.1 265 265.4 15824600 265.43/24/2015 273.8 276.4 269 270.55 17585200 270.553/23/2015 279.4 280 273.55 274.75 13058000 274.753/20/2015 281.8 282.4 276.8 278.25 11482600 278.253/19/2015 290 290.3 280.6 281.6 11046600 281.63/18/2015 284.1 288.45 282 287.3 12394200 287.33/17/2015 283.9 284 279.5 283.1 11350400 283.13/16/2015 281.5 283.85 280 281.65 15132900 281.653/13/2015 290 291.05 280 280.75 13414200 280.753/12/2015 288.15 289.45 286.1 286.85 9969700 286.853/11/2015 288.55 290.9 283.75 285.15 16329300 285.153/10/2015 290.75 293.25 285.1 287.6 14064400 287.6

3/9/2015 292 294 288.7 290.65 13199800 290.653/6/2015 293.8 293.8 293.8 293.8 0 293.83/5/2015 294.75 296.25 289.75 293.8 16803800 293.83/4/2015 314 315 292 293.85 38674100 293.853/3/2015 303.5 305.4 299.7 302.6 14387900 302.63/2/2015 305.9 305.9 296.7 302 15085500 302

STATE BANK OF INDIA

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

STATE BANK OF INDIA

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close4/1/2015 2558 2563.6 2522.25 2542.65 1037800 2542.65

3/31/2015 2569.45 2569.45 2521 2553.95 1213500 2553.953/30/2015 2525 2569.9 2520 2564.15 669500 2564.153/27/2015 2531 2571.9 2504.1 2514.8 1375800 2514.83/26/2015 2553.3 2586.7 2501 2513.1 1545800 2513.13/25/2015 2591.4 2614 2545.2 2573.75 1112400 2573.753/24/2015 2630 2637 2582.1 2591.3 1197400 2591.33/23/2015 2616 2631 2606 2617.15 783300 2617.153/20/2015 2596 2618 2578.85 2610.95 981900 2610.953/19/2015 2576 2605.85 2568.1 2596.25 1224400 2596.253/18/2015 2590.95 2599.45 2551.7 2559.35 627500 2559.353/17/2015 2582.5 2606.7 2557.75 2583.7 633600 2583.73/16/2015 2585.2 2610 2552 2562.3 778100 2562.33/13/2015 2638 2639.95 2575 2582.35 793400 2582.353/12/2015 2623.9 2624.9 2590.1 2619.05 913800 2619.053/11/2015 2642 2659.95 2597.8 2606.55 1120100 2606.553/10/2015 2648.9 2678.25 2595.25 2642.7 1518500 2642.7

3/9/2015 2640 2679.8 2610 2646.8 1441500 2646.83/6/2015 2696.45 2696.45 2696.45 2696.45 0 2696.453/5/2015 2750 2770.7 2681.05 2696.45 1086700 2696.453/4/2015 2788 2812.1 2715.65 2746 1931400 27463/3/2015 2682 2790 2676.15 2776 1712100 27763/2/2015 2679.7 2708.95 2652.55 2669.4 1088000 2669.4

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close4/1/2015 307 309.25 305.5 306.45 2214300 306.45

3/31/2015 315.95 319.6 304.5 306.35 4568800 306.353/30/2015 305 317.4 303.85 315.2 4401100 315.23/27/2015 302.95 308.35 301.4 304.95 3927900 304.953/26/2015 311 311.4 298.8 301.6 7905300 301.63/25/2015 315.65 316.45 308.7 309.65 2759700 309.653/24/2015 310.6 315 309 313.4 2509700 313.43/23/2015 311 315.35 310.85 314.4 3059800 310.43/20/2015 312.2 313 308.4 311.35 3195800 307.38883/19/2015 309.9 313.9 309.2 311.9 3578300 307.93183/18/2015 315 315.45 308 309.2 3234600 305.26623/17/2015 312.1 315.5 310.05 314.2 2533200 310.20253/16/2015 313.85 314.6 311.1 312 2471400 308.03053/13/2015 313.1 316.8 311.3 313.9 3705600 309.90633/12/2015 311 313.95 308.9 312.2 3663200 308.2283/11/2015 315 316.9 309 309.5 5058200 305.56233/10/2015 318 318.95 308.15 314.4 7231200 310.4

3/9/2015 317.85 318.5 314.1 316 5596300 311.97963/6/2015 319.95 319.95 319.95 319.95 0 315.87943/5/2015 321.05 321.45 317.4 319.95 3540800 315.87943/4/2015 322.45 326.75 318.8 320.55 8262200 316.47173/3/2015 320.05 326 317 320.5 6251500 316.42243/2/2015 328.8 329.6 317.4 320.05 6100600 315.9781

OIL & NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

OIL & NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close4/1/2015 393.3 404.85 393.05 402.3 5494800 402.3

3/31/2015 389.05 395.7 385 393.3 6047300 393.33/30/2015 380 392.9 377.6 389.4 4656400 389.43/27/2015 401 404.5 371.1 376.5 8433300 376.53/26/2015 390 403.5 390 399.65 11406800 399.653/25/2015 387 397.45 386.95 395 10251400 3953/24/2015 381.8 396.5 381.6 393.85 7301900 393.853/23/2015 384 389.9 378 383.25 3196600 383.253/20/2015 381 387.8 377.6 380.25 6540000 380.253/19/2015 383 384.95 379.75 381.95 4178300 381.953/18/2015 385.9 390.3 381.5 382.25 4305500 382.253/17/2015 392.2 392.4 379 386.55 11859200 386.553/16/2015 399.9 399.9 386.2 388.4 14064900 388.43/13/2015 398.95 402.7 389.4 400.25 11404400 400.253/12/2015 389.45 399.9 387.05 397.8 16593600 397.83/11/2015 370 394 362.25 389.55 12904800 389.553/10/2015 342.05 382.3 340.75 367.95 11622800 367.95

3/9/2015 346.75 346.75 339.1 343.45 3446200 343.453/6/2015 347.9 347.9 347.9 347.9 0 347.93/5/2015 351.4 351.9 344.05 347.9 3496100 347.93/4/2015 352 358.4 349.3 351.25 3329700 351.253/3/2015 350 350.6 343.7 349.25 2067000 349.253/2/2015 356.3 363 345.5 349.05 4163600 349.05

BHARATI AIRTEL LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

BHARATI AIRTEL LTD.

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

1. Bennet, James A.et.al (2001) have conducted a study on "can money flow predict is defined as the difference

between up stick and down stick dollar trading volume. The study says that despite little published research regarding its usefulness, the measure has become an increasingly popular technical indicator because of its own means. The study summarizes its most important

finding that money flow appears to predict across- sectional variation in future returns. Their predictive ability is sensitive, however, to the method of money flow measurement (eg. The exclusion or inclusion of

block trades) and the Forecast horizon

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

2. Micko Tanaka Yamawaki et. Al., (2007) 7 have conducted a study on the Adaptive use of Technical Indicators for

predicting the Intra-Day price movements. The researcher has proposed a system to select the best combination of

technical indicators and their parameter values adaptively by learning the patterns from the tick-wise financial data. In this paper, the researcher has shown that this system

gives good predictions on the directors of motion with the hitting rate at 10 ticks ahead of the decision point as high as 70% for foreign exchange rates (FX) in five years from

kl1996 to 2000 and 8 different stock prices in NYSE market in 1993 The study concludes that the tick-wise price time series carry a long memory of the order of at least a few

minutes, which is equivalent to 10 ticks.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

SIGNIFICANCE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

H0: there is no relationship between the equity share price and the behavior of the industry.

H1: there is a relationship between the equity share price and the behavior of the industry.

HYPOTHESIS

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

A better understanding of the stock market trend will facilitate allocation of financial sources to the most profitable investment opportunity. The behavior of stock returns will enable the investors to make appropriate investment decisions. The fluctuations of stock returns are due to several economic and non-economic factors. The study is aimed at ascertaining the behavior of share returns.

The study on fluctuations in equity market helps in understanding the behavior of equity market. It helps the investors to be aware about deviations in the returns of the stocks. The simple moving average model indicates the buy and sell signal to the investors. This helps the investors is taking good decisions when investing in equity shares. The study also helps the customers to ascertain the risk and return of the stocks.

SCOPE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Since for the purpose of this analysis five sectors are taken and from the five sectors two companies are taken in each sector. Therefore the sampling used for selection of the sectors is judgmental sampling based on the contribution of each sector to the GOP of the country. The three sample companies in each sector are selected based upon the Market capitalization of the companies in those sectors. In this method, items for the sample are selected on certain pre-determined criteria

This method is usually applied in small enquiries and researchers by individuals when they are familiar with all the items of the population.. 

SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE MONEY FLOW INDEX RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX FINDINGS AND INFERENCES

TOOLS USED FOR ANALYSIS

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

A moving average is an indicator that shows the average value a security's price over a period of time. When

calculating a moving average, a mathematical analysis of the security's average value over a pre-determined time

period is made. As the security's price changes, its average price moves up or down. We can interpret a moving average

by comparing the relationship between the moving averages of the security's price with the security's price

itself.

Buy signal: When the security's price rises above its moving average

Sell Signal: When the security's price falls below its moving average.

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

MFI is a more rigid indicator in its volume – weighted, and is therefore a good measure of the strength of money flowing in and out of a security. It compares "Positive money flow" to create an indicator

that can be compared to price in order to identify the strength or weakness of a trend. The MFI is measured on a 0 – 100 scale and is

often calculated using a 14 day period.The MFI compares the ratio of "positive" money flow and "negative" money flow, if typical price

today is greater than yesterday, then it is considered positive money. For a 14 – day average. The sum of all positive money from those 14 days is the positive money – flow. The MFI is based on the ratio of

positive/negative money flow (money ratio)

Typical Price  =  ((Day High +Day Low + Day close)/3)Money Flow   =  (Typical price) x (volume)

Money Ratio  = (Positive Money Flow/Negative Money Flow)Money Flow Index  =  100 – (100) – (100/ 1+Money Ratio)

MONEY FLOW INDEX

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

The Relative strength Index (RSI) is and extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator. The RSI compares the

magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and returns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the

number of time periods to use in the calculation.

Average gain  =  Total of gains during the past 14 periods/114

Average Loss =  Total of Losses during the past 14 periods /114

RS   =  Average Gain/Average LossRSI   =  100- (100/(1 + RS))

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Price fluctuation is a statistical measure of the tendency of market or security to rise or fall sharply within a short

period of time. Generally higher the fluctuation of a security greater is it price swings larger fluctuations means

returns fluctuate in a wide range. Also all securities does not behave in the same manner. It is the expertise of the researcher and investor as of to identify which indicator

proves the best

FINDINGS AND INFERENCES

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

SCALING TECHNIQUES

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

1. What are the objective factors that you think are in general taken into account when investing in the stock market?

1. Dividend

2. Low share price

3. Expectation of price increase

4. Returns of other substitutive investment

QUESTIONNAIRE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

2. What aspects of the company do you think are taken into account when purchasing shares?

1. Dividend

2. Low share price

3. Expectation of price increase

4. Corporate governance standards of the company

QUESTIONNAIRE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

3. What factors influence you to sell your shares of a certain company?

1. Low or no dividend

2. Low share price

3. Expectation of share price decrease

4. Unethical business practices

QUESTIONNAIRE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

4. Which of this options do you prefer: (ONLY ONE)

1. A stock price increase

2. An increase on the dividend

3. A rise of the profit of the business

QUESTIONNAIRE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

5. Which is your investment time horizon in general?

1. Not invested till now

2. Less than 1 week

3. Between 1 week and 1 month

4. Between 1 month and 6 months

5. Between 6 months and more

QUESTIONNAIRE

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

S/NO Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

1 A C C A A

2 D A B C D

3 A D A B A

4 C B D B C

5 A B A A A

6 A C B A A

7 B D C C D

8 A B A B E

9 A A C C A

10 B D A A E

A 6 2 4 4 5

B 2 3 2 3 0

C 1 2 3 3 1

D 1 3 1 0 2

E - - - - 2

TOTAL 10 10 10 10 8

Total

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

               1.Dividend 6

60.00%

1.Low share price 2

20.00%

1.Expectation of price increase 1

10.00%

1.Returns of other substitutive investment 1

10.00%

  Total         10100.0

0%

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

1. What are the objective factors that you think are in general taken into account when investing in the stock market?

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

60%20%

10%

10%

1234

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Q2. What aspects of the company do you think are taken into account when purchasing shares?

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

1.Dividend         2

20.00%

1.Low share price 3

30.00%

1.Expectation of price increase 2

20.00%

1.Corporate governance standards of the company 3

30.00%

            10100.0

0%

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

20%

30%

20%

30%

1234

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

3. What factors influence you to sell your shares of a certain company?

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

1.Low or no dividend     4 40.00%

1.Low share price 2 20.00%1.Expectation of share price decrease 3 30.00%1.Unethical business practices 1 10.00%

          10100.00

%

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

40%

20%

30%

10%

1234

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Q4. Which of this options do you prefer: (ONLY ONE)

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

1.A stock price increase4 40.00%

1.An increase on the dividend3 30.00%

1.A rise of the profit of the business 3 30.00%

        10 100.00%

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

40%

30%

30%

123

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Q5. Which is your investment time horizon in general?

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

1.Not invested till now 5 50.00%

1.Less than 1 week 0 0.00%

1.Between 1 week and 1 month 1 10.00%1.Between 1 month and 6 months 2 20.00%

1.Between 6 months and more 2 20.00%

        10 100.00%

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

PRIMARY DATA IN TABULATION FORM

50%

10%

20%

20%

1 2

3 4

5

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Type of test –

Hypothesis

H(0) –

H(a) –

Result as per the P value

TEST OF MEAN

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

H(0) –

H(a) -

Regression Equation –

Prediction

CORRELATION AND REGRESSION

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

H(0) –

H(a) -

Type of test

Result as per the P value

TEST OF PROPORTION

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

In India most of the industries require huge amount of investments. Funds are raised mostly through the issue of share. An investor is satisfied from the reasonable return from investment in shares. Speculation involves higher risks to get return on the other hand investment involves no such risks and returns will be fair. An investor can succeed in his investment only when he is able to select the right shares. The investors should keenly watch the situations like market price, economy, company progress, returns, and the risk involved in a share before taking decision on a particular share. This study made will help the investors know the behaviour of share prices and thus can succeed

CONCLUSION

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

Volatile markets are characterized by wide price fluctuations and heavy trading. They often result from an imbalance of trade orders is one direction, wide price fluctuations are a daily occurrence on the world's stock markets as investors react to economic business and political events. Market watchers see high volatility as a sign of investor nervousness which, in the counter-intiative world of market, is of course bullish

The present study on the simple moving average model applied on selected company's scripts would help the investors to take investment decision. It is suggested that the investors can invest in the shares that shows a definitive signal of buy or sell decisions. The investors can invest in the companies which are recovering out of either over brought or oversold condition since there might be a definite trend reversal in those stocks. It is also advised for the investors to hold the stock which keep fluctuating unless until the stock follows definite bearish or bullish trend. And also the investor can make investment not only following a particular indicator but by confirming the signal with several indicators for better returns.

RECOMMENDATIONS

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F I N A L R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

www.Religare Securities.com www.nseindia.com www.equitymaster.com www.icharts.in www.stock charts.com www.money control.com www.money.rediff.com www.investopedia.com

BIBLIOGRAPHY