SNR Skunkwor ks A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological systems and services Joseph Arvai The Ohio State University Decision Research
Mar 17, 2016
SNR
Skunkworks
A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological
systems and services
Joseph ArvaiThe Ohio State University
Decision Research
SNR
Skunkworks
The Case of Water Use Planningin British Columbia
• Work with B.C. Hydro on a comprehensive, stakeholder-based development of revised operating plans at all major hydroelectric facilities.
• In response to increasing, competing demands on provincial water resources
SNR
Skunkworks
Scale Issues
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Scale Issues
SNR
Skunkworks
The Case of Water Use Planningin British Columbia
• Multiple Objectives:1. *Electricity generation/trade2. *Environmental quality
• Water, land, & air3. *Recreation opportunities4. *Cultural values 5. Public and employee safety6. Foster stakeholder-based initiatives7. Learn over time; reduce uncertainty
* Attributes of “value” associated with the ecological system and its services.
SNR
Skunkworks
The Case of Water Use Planningin British Columbia
http://www.bchydro.com/wup/
• The challenges were to:– assess the “value” of
the system under competing water management options (including, in some cases, a “restore natural conditions” option) and,
– take into consideration multiple objectives (and measures).
SNR
Skunkworks
Decision Aiding in Brief• “Value” is ascribed to systems in the context of
doing (e.g., development) or not doing (e.g., preservation) something to them; i.e., options.
• While we might apply different weights to its various elements, the “value” of ecological systems and services is multiattribute in nature.
• Based on the notion that the “value” of ecological systems and services is driven by people’s knowledge, perceptions, and their objectives.
SNR
Skunkworks
Decision Aiding in Brief• The approach emphasizes:
1. Eliciting objectives from various stakeholders.
2. Identifying options for management (e.g., preservation, sustainable extraction, development, etc.).
3. Establishing attributes of/measures for each objective.
4. Generating a matrix across these objectives and options and addressing the tradeoffs that selecting one option over another entails.
SNR
Skunkworks
Decision Aiding in Brief• A note about attributes and measures:
1. Natural Measures - Direct measures of an attribute• e.g., monetary value of electricity generated ($)
2. Constructed Measures - Measures created for an attribute
• e.g., annual probability of a flood severe enough to damage homes
3. Proxy Measures - Indirect measures of an attribute• e.g., habitat quality as a measure of the health of
salmonid populations
SNR
Skunkworks
Why this approach?• Legislative mandate• Process-oriented objectives:
– Comprehensive approach– “Workable” decision tasks (Simon)– Enhanced stakeholder understanding and
participation• Outcome-oriented objectives:
– High level of consent to operate (BC Hydro)– Long-lasting results
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Participants
• BC Hydro (Crown Corporation)• Federal Government• Provincial Government• Local Government• First Nations• Community Stakeholders
– Home owners, business operators, etc.
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Objectives, Attributes, MeasuresObjectives *Attributes/MeasuresRecreation e.g., Weighted User Days
Erosion e.g., Weighted Erosion Days
Flooding e.g., Weighted Flood Days (flow level)
Fish e.g., % Available Habitat, IBI
Water Supply e.g., Water Quality Impact Rating
Cultural Heritage e.g., Consistency Rating
Financial e.g., Annual Revenues M$ / Year
*May use multiple methods to obtain data
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.e.g., Financial Objectives &
Attributes
M A R KE T VA LU EO F P O W E R
TOTAL FINANCIALVALUE
CO S T O F M O N IT O R IN GAN D M IT IG AT IO N P G M S
M O N ITO R IN G A NDM IT IG A T IO N PG M S
TH E RM A L P O W E RPR O D U CE D GHG EMISSIONS
N E W C A P IT A L W O R KS C A P IT A L C O ST S T O T AL C O S T S
TO T AL R EV E N U E S
O P ER A TIN G C O S TS
W AT E R M AN A G E M EN T :
RESERVO IR LEVELS FLO W RAT ES DIVER SIO N FLO W S RAM PING RAT ES
PO W E R G E N ER A TIO N:
AM O U N T O FG EN ER AT IO N
T IM E O F G ENERAT IO N
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.e.g., Recreation Objectives &
AttributesRESERVOIR
LEVELS
FLO A T IN GD E BR IS
RECREATION
OPPORTUNITIES QUALITY
DEBRISMANAGEMENT
VIS U ALQ U A LIT Y
B O A TIN G &S W IM M ING C O N D IT IO N S SAFETY
DIVERSIONFLOW S
TOURISMFLOW RATES KA YA K & C A N O E IN G
C O N DIT IO N S
AC CE S S TO : BEAC H BO AT LAU N C H SH O R ELIN E
ST A ND IN GD E BR IS
S H O R E LIN EER O SIO N
N O N -C O N FO R M IN GPAR K USE
N A TU R A L H IST O R Y
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Option 1 Option 2 Option 3EnvironmentConserve Salmon
EconomicRevenue Generation
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Consequence Table
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Option 1 Option 2 Option 3EnvironmentConserve Salmon
EconomicRevenue Generation
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Elicited fromstakeholders
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Option 1 Option 2 Option 3EnvironmentConserve Salmon
EconomicRevenue Generation
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Established throughconsultations withtechnical experts
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Option 1 Option 2 Option 3EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($)
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days
PredictiveMeasurable
UnderstandablePractical
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($)
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days
Established throughconsultations withstakeholders andtechnical experts
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($)
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days
MEASURESPredictive
MeasurableUnderstandable
Practical
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 30
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 30
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500
“Value” is not afunction of anyone measure
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 30
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500
Nor is it just the function of some composite score
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 30
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500
Instead, the value of a givenoption exists in the tradeoffs
that people are willing to makeacross not just their objectives,
but also the level of achievementwith respect to them.
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value
Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 25
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million
SocialRecreation Opportunities
Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500
SNR
Skunkworks
Objectives AttributesMimic
Natural Hydrograph
Enhanced Summer Releases
Enhanced Winter
Releases
EnvironmentConserve Salmon
% Viable Spawning Habitat
50 20 30
EconomicRevenue Generation
NPV ($$) $ 60 M $ 80 M $ 65 M
SocialRecreation Opportunities
# of user days 1400 1200 1500
Range of ValuesNat
6040
100
ExpectedLowHigh
Sum
8010140
RISK PROFILES
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
20 60 100 140
Prob
abili
ty
Expected Value
Nat Sum
Water Use Planning in B.C.Risk & Uncertainty
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Upper Campbell / Buttle Lake: Erosion - Days / Year
Alternative
wei
ghte
d da
ys (2
20 a
nd 2
21 m
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
E F G H I J
Best Impact (9 years out of 10)
Median
Worst Impact (9 years out of 10)
Water Use Planning in B.C.
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Water Use Planning in B.C.Alternatives
Objective Attribute E F G H I JUpper Campbell / Buttle Lake
Erosion - Days / Year weighted days (220 and 221 m) 37 13 4 3 3 3Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (217.5, 218.5, 200m by season)43 40 106 158 158 158Effective Littoral Zone hectares 91 107 93 214 215 220
Lower Campbell / McIvor / FryErosion - Days / Year weighted days (177.4 and 178.3 m) 3 27 13 0 0 0Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (175.75 - 177.8 by season) 115 43 83 167 170 167Spawning Habitat - Cutthroat % Available Habitat 78 18 95 79 79 78Spawning Habitat - Rainbow % Available Habitat 26 3 49 49 47 50
Campbell RiverFlooding - Total Days weighted days (300, 453, 530 cms) 34 48 24 59 59 59Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (28 cms - 80 cms) 66 83 51 81 79 81Total Spill Days - All Species days (Q>340cms, Sept 22 - April 15) 118 214 102 176 177 176Spawning Habitat - All Species % successful redds (Chum as indicator) 55 89 78 59 59 59Rearing Habitat - All Species "Average" risk index (scale 0 - 1) 0.53 0.48 0.53 0.50 0.49 0.49
Salmon RiverCanoe Route - Days / Year days (Q<6cms, April 1 - Oct 22) 162 167 153 204 183 204All Habitat - All Species "Average" risk index (scale 0 - 1) 0.54 0.47 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.47
System-WidePower / Financial Annual Revenue M $ / Year 68.5 64.6 68.6 65.1 65.3 64.1
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Moving From Alternative:E
To Alternative:G
Results In:
Upper Campbell / Buttle LakeG A decrease in Erosion - Days / Year of 33 weighted daysG An increase in Recreation - Days / Year of 63 weighted daysY An increase in Effective Littoral Zone of 2 hectares
Lower Campbell / McIvor / FryR An increase in Erosion - Days / Year of 10 weighted daysR A decrease in Recreation - Days / Year of 32 weighted daysG An increase in Spawning Habitat - Cutthroat of 17 %
Campbell RiverG A decrease in Flooding - Total Days of 10 weighted daysR A decrease in Recreation - Days / Year of 16 weighted daysG An increase in Spawning Habitat - All Species of 23 %Y No change in Rearing Habitat - All Species of 0 in average risk
Salmon RiverY A decrease in Canoe Route - Days / Year of 9 daysG A decrease in All Habitat - All Species of 0.1 in average risk
System-WideY An increase in Power / Financial of 0.1 M $ / Year
Denotes an improvement in the PM greater than the significant difference.Denotes a worsening in the PM greater than the significant difference.Denotes a change in the PM that is less than the significant differencfe.
Water Use Planning in B.C.
Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished
SNR
Skunkworks
Methodological Notes1. Data types and sources?
• Economic assessments - BC Hydro, independent consultants
• Environmental assessments - BC Hydro, WLAP, DFO, University Scientists, independent consultants
• Recreation impacts - local residents, user groups• Cultural impacts - tribal representatives, university
researchers
2. Interdisciplinary?• Fully integrates ecological and economic models;
engages experts and non-experts
SNR
Skunkworks
Methodological Notes3. Results published/peer-reviewed?
• Yes• Case studies• Experimental trials
4. Results used?• Approach originally conceived as a pilot project at a
single site• Now implemented at 23 sites province wide (18 Water
Use Plans completed to date)• Mandated review periods (e.g., 5 and 11 years for the
Bridge River plan)
SNR
Skunkworks
Methodological Notes5. Strengths
• Takes into account multiple dimensions of value• Explicitly addresses key sources of uncertainty• Links choice of methods with the objectives of key
stakeholders• Explicit about the need to make tradeoffs
6. Weaknesses• Time and effort intensive (2-3 days to 2-3 years)• Varying costs• Best suited to cases with a single decision maker• Elements of “art” and “science”
SNR
Skunkworks
Methodological Notes7. Transferability of the approach?
• Practical Examples» Cedar River, WA» Tillamook Bay Estuary, OR» Snohomish Basin, WA» Portland Harbor Superfund, OR» Alum Creek, OH» Many non-environmental contexts
• Experimental Approaches» Water Use Planning» Contaminated site cleanup» Wildlife management
SNR
Skunkworks
Sample References• Gregory, R. 2000. Using stakeholder values to make smarter environmental
decisions. Environment, 42: 34-44.
• Gregory, R., J. L. Arvai, and T. McDaniels. 2001. Value-focused thinking for environmental risk consultations. Research in Social Problems and Public Policy, 9: 249-275.
• Gregory, R. and K. Wellman. 2001. Bringing stakeholder values into environmental policy choices: A community-based estuary case study. Ecological Economics, 39: 37-52.
• Gregory, R. and L. Failing. 2002. Using decision analysis to encourage sound deliberation: Water use planning in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21: 492-499.
• McDaniels, T., R. Gregory, and D. Fields. 1999. Democratizing risk management: Successful public involvement in local water management decisions. Risk Analysis, 19: 497-510.
SNR
Skunkworks
Major Practitioners
Bob Clemen, DukeRobin Gregory, UBC/Decision Research
Ralph Keeney, USCTim McDaniels, UBCLynne Maguire, Duke
Detlof von Winterfeldt, USCTrent Berry, Compass Resource ManagementLee Failing, Compass Resource ManagementDan Ohlsen, Compass Resource Management
Will Trousdale, EcoPlan InternationalJoseph Arvai, Ohio State/Decision Research